Bishop Hill says-
Louise Gray has adopted the role of recruiting sergeant for the Balcombe protest camp, offering up helpful advice on what aspirant participants should bring along: http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/8/7/environmentalist-journalist.html
[That pretty much shreds Gray’s credibility – Anthony]
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Lots of chatter about sea ice being higher than in many recent years:
Danish Meteorological Institute: Arctic Sea Ice Now 1.7 Million Square Kilometers Over Last Year!
That’s 19,000 Manhattans. Arctic open sea water is in a death spiral!
Source: http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php
But I’m not convinced it will last, as trouble in the form of a polar storm is brewing on the horizon, which could break up sea ice as a storm did last year (despite the wailing from alarmists, it was weather, not climate):
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Powerline Blog: Green Weenie of the Week: The Weather
Okay, by now we’ve done to death all of the things caused by climate change (the Warmlist is up to 883 items now), but the newest claim is that global warming will increase the violent crime rate. From the Beeb:
Shifts in climate are strongly linked to increases in violence around the world, a study suggests. US scientists found that even small changes in temperature or rainfall correlated with a rise in assaults, rapes and murders, as well as group conflicts and war. The team says with the current projected levels of climate change, the world is likely to become a more violent place.
The crime rate in the United States has been falling steadily for the last 20 years, during which time, we are told daily, we’re notching the hottest years since Satan lit up his sulfur pits. Hmmm.
The best takedown of this so far comes from William M. Briggs
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Meteorologist Art Horn Letter to Connecticut State Dept. of Agriculture
Meteorologist, Art Horn, lays bare the nonsense about “extreme weather”, in a letter to the Connecticut Dept of Agriculture.
One of the reasons we teach people about history is to give them ability to place current events into their proper context. The same can be said about weather history. Those who do not know the history of weather do not know how to place current events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, snowstorms, floods, droughts, heat waves, cold waves and all other types of weather phenomena into their proper context. If one does not know weather history than that person might think that all “unusual” weather is new and unprecedented.
Meteorologist Art Horn Letter to Connecticut State Dept. of Agriculture
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NOAA Confirms Model-Defying Global Temperature Stagnation…2012 Was Among Coolest In 21st Century
The political beauty about climate data is that it can be easily manipulated in order to fool the public.
The National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recently released its State of the Climate in 2012: Highlights. To no one’s surprise, the report gives the reader the impression that warming is galloping ahead out of control. But their data show just the opposite. http://notrickszone.com/2013/08/07/noaa-confirms-model-defying-global-temperature-stagnation-2012-was-among-coolest-in-21st-century/
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The waste is scandalous, even from the Coalition. We’re in deep deficit, which makes it even more insane to spend billions a year on making a difference to the temperature so immeasurably small that no party dares tell voters what it is.
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More polar bear boo hoos from the Grauniad:
Lots of questions about that “starved” 16-year-old polar bear
If it was healthy in April, can we just assume “from its lying position” that CO2 reduced it to skin and bones by July? What about the admission that “there may have been some underlying disease”–did anyone actually check? What did its teeth look like? How big a factor was old age? If pregnant female polar bears in Hudson Bay can fast for up to 8 months, how did CO2 cause this particular bear to starve so quickly?
After Ian Stirling found the animal dead in July, how did global warming activist photographer Ashley Cooper end up at the scene? What was the process of hyping this dead bear to the media? Didn’t thousands of polar bears end up looking like this well before the invention of the internal combustion engine?
Starved polar bear perished due to record sea-ice melt, says expert | Environment | The Guardian
Ice loss due to climate change is “absolutely, categorically and without question” the cause of falling polar bear populations, said Richardson, who cares for the UK’s only publicly kept polar bears. He said 16 years was not particularly old for a wild male polar bear, which usually live into their early 20s [or 15-18, who’s counting?]. “There may have been some underlying disease, but I would be surprised if this was anything other than starvation,” he said. “Once polar bears reach adulthood they are normally nigh on indestructible, they are hard as nails.”
A victim of climate change? Polar bear found starved to death looked ‘like a rug’ – World News
Ian Stirling, who has studied polar bears for nearly 40 years, told The Guardian newspaper that he found the animal on Svalbard in July.
“From his lying position in death the bear appears to simply have starved and died where he dropped,” Stirling said. “He had no external suggestion of any remaining fat, having been reduced to little more than skin and bone.”
The bear was examined by Norwegian scientists in April about 150 miles south and seemed to be healthy at that time…
Ashley Cooper, the photographer who took the picture, said the sight of the dead polar bear was “desperately sad.”
…
Cooper said the fate of the bear was “what [all] polar bears have got to look forward to over the next 10 to 20 years.”
“There isn’t a future for them unless we can very rapidly get on top of climate change,” he said.
…Ashley Cooper / Global Warming Images
The bear is thought to have been heading north in a desperate search for sea ice that would allow it to hunt for seals. Scientists believe the Arctic could be essentially free of sea ice in September by 2054. [So why will all polar bears starve within 20 years from now?]
Actionbioscience | Polar Bears and Climate Change
Pregnant female polar bears in Hudson Bay can fast for up to 8 months
Global Warming Images | Ashley Cooper’s website
Ashley Cooper has always been passionate about the environment and in recent years Global Warming, the affects of which he has been documenting for the last 8 years. His trips have taken him to many parts of the world with his particular interest being in capturing images that graphically demonstrate the impact of global warming, on people, places and wildlife.
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Storms take heat OUT of the system….. After the major one last summer sea ice is much higher this year, the temperatures are at or near freezing. going to be intresting the effect this one has on artic temperatures. Could be a indication of a Artic cooling cycle starting…….
First time I have seen the Polar bears knock over the N pole web cam from what it looks like. They are so hungry they have time to play with weird object on the ice..
Webcam#1 shows the tracks then today the cam is knocked over..
http://psc.apl.washington.edu/northpole/NPEO2013/webcams1and2.html
Ashley Cooper. Sorry, but you are a moron. Simple. An emotionally-blinded, hand-wringing, alarmist nitwit.
“Scientists believe the Arctic could be essentially free of sea ice in September by 2054.”
WUWT? I thought scientists believed the Arctic was going to be “essentially” ice free right now in 2013? Nice 40 year goal post move….
@Eric
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/05/12/the-arctic-ocean-could-be-nearly-ice-free-at-the-end-of-summer-by-2012/
Hummm, an arctic storm could possibly stack and pack the ice as opposed to exporting it out. Subsequently increasing the multi year ice and making things less susceptable to future storms moving forward, No?
REPLY: In that case, extent is reduced for this year, then the wailing begins anew. Alarmists have no season to season memory, it’s all about what they can wail about now. – Anthony
Heat gain and heat loss rates from any given km x km area in the Arctic Ocean depend on a lot of items: some related to each other and some independent of other variables, some that do not change with time and some that vary slowly as the day-of-year changes (cloud cover, wind speed, open ocean wave height, albedo of ocean and sea ice, average air temperature, etc) and some that are fixed explicitly by the latitude and day-of-year (amount of available solar radiation at top-of-atmosphere, length of day, solar elevation angle each hour-of-the-day, etc) but which are explicitly predictable.
So, while the actual amount of solar radiation that “might be available” to be absorbed into the ocean water or by sea ice varies day-by-day and can be calculated accurately, what is actually absorbed changes as the daily weather changes up there.
However, at this time of year, we are at the point of year (and sea ice edge latitude) where “more open water => more evaporation losses” IS a true statement; but “more open water => more absorption of solar energy” is NOT a true statement.
That pretty much shreds Gray’s credibility
What credibility?
By the way, when will the CAGW community advertise the “Inconvenient fact” that Antarctic Sea Ice Area is now (six weeks early!) over 15,000 Kkm2. Thus, six weeks early, the Antarctic already has enough sea ice area to not only “make its yearly sales goal” of 15,000 Kkm2, but has already exceeded it’s year-to-date goal by more than 2x standard deviations.
(Yes, yes, Arctic Sea Ice area is also low by about the same amount (1,000 Kkm2) – but the Arctic Ocean is losing sea ice at 80 north latitude, and the Antarctic is gaining sea ice at 62 south latitude. The Antarctic Sea Ice is reflecting many times the solar energy of what the Arctic is not absorbing today.)
And, it is also absolutely true that much of the Antarctic Sea ice as it grows towards its future maximum extents is in darkness today, but – then again – all of the the Arctic sea ice was in darkness much of the year, and in much longer dark nights than the Antarctic sea ice.
And, by the way, back near March 21 when Antarctic Sea was at its exposed to a maximum solar rate, it was also over its average sea ice area by 1,000 Kkm2.
[That pretty much shreds Gray’s credibility – Anthony]
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No, that happened many years ago.
So, I’ve now seen the location Svalbard twice in a week on WUWT. Perhaps, this a case of “Bear & The Volcano”. Sounds like a movie opportunity to me.
“Scientists believe the Arctic could be essentially free of sea ice in September by 2054.”
“Essentially’? What exactly does that mean? Certainly would be nice if they would quantify that modifer. Depending on what you actually mean by ‘is’, er, ‘essentially’, you could state that “Scientists believe that the Arctic is ‘essentially’ free of ice right now.”
A question for the blog.
I have been searching for some time (with little luck) for recent papers relating to polar ice formation and deep water brine current formation and its impact on global climate. Does anyone have any knowledge of any new papers relating to this or the deep ocean conveyor belt, not just Polynyas etc?
TIA for the help
The best reason I can think of for the rapid decline of this bear is an infection, Possibly they did a poor job when they darted him for testing in April.
Hear Bishop Hill’s blog entry http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2013/8/7/polar-bears.html on his speaking about the polar bear on BBC Radio 5 today with Greenpeace’s John Sauven.
I am not sure it has been mentioned, but there is another group of rowers in the Arctic this summer. Their website is nowhere near as good as the Row to the Pole folks’ was. But somewhat more interesting than watching the sea ice extant. http://mainstreamlastfirst.com/
This site has been tracking the progress but he has not updated in a few days: http://www.dehavelle.com/2013/07/arctic-joule-calcs/
@LexingtonGreen
They recently reported having to hump that craft 100k along the shoreline because of ICE! lol….
These people are so delusional I think the next DSM might have a new psychological category just for them…
that’s 1.7 Egypts………….more
David Albert says:
Righteously succinct. I concur. The recent handling poses a confounding factor that can’t be ignored. Sepsis from a deep puncture is a far more likely killer under the circumstances. It certainly can’t be ruled out without examining the puncture site or further forensics. But then again, I wouldn’t expect close observations from the breathless warm-it-all-we-are-going-to-die types.
REPLY: In that case, extent is reduced for this year, then the wailing begins anew. Alarmists have no season to season memory, it’s all about what they can wail about now. – Anthony
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but then you can get them on MYI………….that’s what makes it
I took a look at the latest global heat content data today after reading the 2012 NOAA alarmist report. Has there been some serious adjustments to ocean heat content data? All graphs I’ve looked at have been nearly flat since 2003 and now their latest graph shows heat sharply rising for the past few years.
I doubt this storm will break up ice. We have already had a pretty good storm in late July and it did nothing to the ice. Also historically, stormy summer weather does not generally lead to less ice. So my money is on the ice, not the storms. To be sure, the speculation is that thinner ice will break up and leave under normally stormy summer conditions but will thicken more if already thick under normally stormy summer conditions. However the thickness of the ice is not well known, if at all, historically, and is mostly modeled instead of directly observed even today. The speculation is only that so I still say the ice will survive the storms.
Isn’t this a little bit of a red herring since to fast for 8 months the bears need to feast first?
If the dead bear was OK in April and dead 3 months later, there could be many reasons. Has an autopsy been carried out?
oops,
should have been
“Isn’t this a little bit of a red herring since to fast for 8 months the bears need to feast first and mostly hibernates?
So alone among living animals, Polar bears are immune from “underlying” diseases?
Who would have thunk it!
If there is more ice polar bear populations decline like penguin populations at Antarctica.