From Arizona State University where I really don’t think they understand that warmer winters aren’t necessarily a product of “climate change” but are mostly weather pattern and ocean cycle pattern driven. Then there’s the recent study about waste heat where the researchers found:
“…the extra heat given off by Northern Hemisphere urban areas causes as much as 1 degree C (1.8 degrees F) of warming in winter.”
So, color me unconvinced that “climate change” is the real driver here. It is more like a convenient scapegoat.
Study shows climate change could affect onset and severity of flu seasons
The American public can expect to add earlier and more severe flu seasons to the fallout from climate change, according to a research study published online Jan. 28 in PLOS Currents: Influenza.
A team of scientists led by Sherry Towers, research professor in the Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center at Arizona State University, studied waves of influenza and climate patterns in the U.S. from the 1997-1998 season to the present.
The team’s analysis, which used Centers for Disease Control data, indicates a pattern for both A and B strains: warm winters are usually followed by heavy flu seasons.
“It appears that fewer people contract influenza during warm winters, and this causes a major portion of the population to remain vulnerable into the next season, causing an early and strong emergence,” says Towers. “And when a flu season begins exceptionally early, much of the population has not had a chance to get vaccinated, potentially making that flu season even worse.”
The current flu season, which is still in high gear in parts of the nation, began early and fiercely. It followed a relatively light 2011 season, which saw the lowest peak of flu since tracking efforts went into effect, and coincided with the fourth warmest winter on record. According to previous studies, flu transmission decreases in warm or humid conditions.
If global warming continues, warm winters will become more common, and the impact of flu will likely be more heavily felt, say the study’s authors.
Mathematical epidemiologist Gerardo Chowell-Puente, an associate professor in the School of Human Evolution and Social Change in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, adds that the findings could inform preparedness efforts following mild winters: “The expedited manufacture and distribution of vaccines and aggressive vaccination programs could significantly diminish the severity of future influenza epidemics.”
This study was partially supported by the Multinational Influenza Seasonal Mortality Study, overseen by the National Institutes of Health’s Fogarty International Center. Other team members are Rasheed Hameed, Matthew Jastrebski, Maryam Khan, Jonathan Meeks, Anuj Mubayi and George Harris of Northeastern Illinois University. The goal of the overarching study is to better grasp the character and trajectory of influenza in all its forms.
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“research professor in the Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center ”
Why does it always make my hair stand on end when I read the word “model” in studies…
I prefer the advice of old fashioned research:
Cover your mouth when coughing. Wash hands regularly. Stay at home if you are ill. Ensure fresh air in buildings. Get a flu shot if you are old or at risk.
The advice from this research paper, like all CAGW climate research, seems extremely useful to ONLY researchers seeking to consume large and larger taxpayer grants…
Jeremy, you wrote, as a way to reduce flu transmission, “Ensure fresh air in buildings.”
Heehee… I’ve raised the ire of folks on the net sometimes when I’ve made the suggestion that in terms of the flu you’re probably safer going to a Free Choice bar than a smoking banned bar. The Free Choice place is likely to spend the extra money for increased ventilation/filtration equipment that the banned place skimps on with no one the wiser. We saw a similar problem in airplanes when they banned smoking: airborne bacteria/fungi counts went way up in the aftermath as the planes switched over to recirculation, and now there are all sorts of complaints about lubricating/transmission/fuel vapor in the air of passenger cabins. Don’t know if they ever did an actual study on an increase in flu after the ventilation reductions though: would have been hard to get the data. Consumer Reports *did* run a major cover story titled “What’s Happened To Airplane Air?” with a pic of a gasping passenger clawing at a window two years after the US plane ban though.
– MJM
This study shows (maybe) that weather can influence the course of the flu season.
The linkage to climate change is pure speculation. Even the title of the article reads “Study shows climate change could affect onset, severity of flu seasons”.
How much longer will the MSM and sheeple lap up this nonsense?
When are you going to get those warmer winters in the Northern Hemisphere?
“It appears that fewer people contract influenza during warm winters, and this causes a major portion of the population to remain vulnerable into the next season, causing an early and strong emergence,” says Towers. “And when a flu season begins exceptionally early, much of the population has not had a chance to get vaccinated, potentially making that flu season even worse.”
Interesting thoughts. Anecdotally it would appear true for the current flu season in the Northeast after an unusually warm winter last year, and it sounds like their research did actually pick out the the last few “high incidence in early seasons” episodes to see if they also followed warm winters.
The second half of the statement is a bit more questionable though: what percentage of the population usually gets vaccinated by the halfway flu season point? Is it large enough to make the difference needed for the hypothesized effect?
😕
MJM
Did the study empirically show warming in Arizona over the past 16 years? ‘Cos globally that ain’t the case.
Anyhoo, a bit OT, but from the Arizona State University website you linked to:
http://asuevents.asu.edu/great-debate-climate-change
Somehow this post reminds me of Willis’ Tao of El Nino from earlier today. They both rely on feedback from an earlier time to modulate the current situation. I wonder if Willis could suggest hot these authors might improve their analysis?
Another expensive study to get us to yet another `climate change could’ conclusion. Must be great as a scientist in a rich nation such as the US, where endless amounts of grant money are available to spend on endless pursuits of irrelevant hypotheses. The Bear rolls eyes and logs off …
“where I really don’t they they understand that warmer ”
I believe you want to replace a “they” with a “think”. Hehe i would know since thats how i write.
These guys should be researching why the vacine worked so poorly this year. A 50% success rate is not worth getting the needle for. Like flipping a coin. I speak as one, of several I know, who got the needle, but to no avail. Most years, it has worked well for me.
Need some better statistical work on next year’s formulation. Get the Bayes theory guys to work!
Do something that has benefit to it.
“According to previous studies, flu transmission decreases in warm or humid conditions. If global warming continues, warm winters will become more common, and the impact of flu will likely be more heavily felt, say the study’s authors.”
It must take AGW logic to understand this.
omigod!
when people catch a disease, they build up immunity to it!
when they don’t catch that disease, they don’t build up immunity to it!
omigod!
omigod!
nobody knew this before!
cold is bad for human health!
omigod!
omigod!
nobody knew that before either!
“It appears that fewer people contract influenza during warm winters, and this causes a major portion of the population to remain vulnerable into the next season, causing an early and strong emergence,” says Towers.
If global warming continues, warm winters will become more common, and the impact of flu will likely be more heavily felt, say the study’s authors.
Essentially they are arguing that low levels of immunity makes flu outbreaks more severe and this occurs after a warm winter. Of course, the reverse will be true, and high levels of immunity will make flu outbreaks less severe after a cold winter.
If warm winters alone were the cause of more severe flu outbreaks then we should see more severe outbreaks as we move toward the equator. We don’t see this, therefore warm winters alone are not the cause of more severe outbreaks.
In fact, influenza mortality has a strong negative correlation with winter temperatures.
http://digitalarchive.gsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1015&context=anthro_theses
Which makes me conclude warmer winters will decrease influenza severity.
You can file this study under; Another example of AGW money corrupting science.
…There is nothing that Global Warming can’t make worse. Including “overarching” studies.
Unless this particular flu strain is triggered by a 16-year pause in climate change I’d have to conclude these people are more interested in grant money than health and personal integrity. Dunno why but snake oil is my current ear worm – can’t shake it.
I’ve always wondered why a ‘cold’ is called a cold, where it has little or nothing to do with being cold. I work in the tropics, and have never seen so many people with ‘colds’, and I have never caught so many ‘colds’ myself (probably because I am not used to the local strains) whilst simulateneously sweating with the heat. I suspect flu has little or nothing to do with either warmth or cold either. (And same again for malaria, although cold weather does kill mosquitoes)
Perhaps people are ever so slightly more susceptible to catching a ‘cold’ when they are actually cold, but a more dominant influence might be basic health and hygiene, which is why so many in the tropics, where I work, where both health and hygiene is poor, catch so many ‘colds’. Same goes for flu I expect.
For once and for all: Cold weather causes more flu.
Don’t believe it? Check the hospitals in summer – no flu patients.
The colder the weather, more flu and breathing diseases.
So I take it that the winters of 1918 and 1919 were warmed by global warming, and that caused the severity of the Spanish Flu epidemic.
Onset is a function of vector. Aka mobility. When Patient N can be anywhere in the world in 20 hours after interacting with thousands who also exhibit similar mobility any previous propagation model is rendered moot.
The only thing ‘weather’ related about the flu is that is is carried by migratory birds.
They mix several Hx Nx types and don’t bother to point out that the remix each year (in pigs and ducks in Asia in many cases) changes the stew. The vaccine is made well in advance of knowing what is coming, so often does not contain the right HxNx type.
I’ve regularly asked the Dr. what is in the ‘mix’ and what is the type in progress and they are often different. In other words, the ‘magic bullet’ is often wrong. They depend on a lot of folks getting the shots over years to kind of make up for that…
In summary:
Important drivers are the Asian reshuffle of antigens, then the match or non-match of that year of vaccine (and whatever was doled out in the prior few years that might accidentally be right this time…)
Only a tiny bit related to Asian bird migrations, thus weather.
Heat has little to do with it (other than folks ‘cuddle up and share’ in the cold…)
But… but… but
If warm winters have less cases, creating less immunity, then surely they’ll only lead to more cases the next year if the next year is cold again,? Either that or turn the annual flu cycle into a bi-annual one?
Stay away from groups of people, especially little ones, classrooms, and public school teachers. Get the shot, early. Also get the Pneumonia shot.
~~~~~~~
Has anyone else seen the Feb. 2013 Smithsonian p.10, “From the Castle”? G. Wayne Clough (Sec. of the S.) offers up a grab bag of global warming garbage. He doesn’t mention flu but does get in that the organization hosted a symposium on the Anthropocene (sic).
{ Plastiolithic, please! }
Breaking News:
See:
http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/01/28/un-climate-report-models-overestimated-global-warming/
Draft UN climate report shows 20 years of overestimated global warming, skeptics warn
When it is colder, people stay indoors more, and when they do go outside, they cover up more. Maybe flu is more easily caught by people who have less sun exposure and hence less vitamin D.
Uh oh – useless model alert!
Extensive use of the words ‘could’ and ‘maybe’!