We have about three hours to go for the expected arrival time of the CME at 0625 UTC/1025 PM PST. Proton flux remains high as do other indicators. Additionally another C class solar flare just occured.
This bulletin just in from NOAA SWPC:
2012-03-08 03:18 UTC Solar Radiation Storm Continues, Geomagnetic Storming Expected
The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) is forecast to pass ACE early morning UTC on March 8 (start of day EST March 8). Geomagnetic storm periods reaching the G3 (Strong) level are likely as a result. Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.
UPDATE: 825PM
I’ll know more once the CME particles pass the L1 point where the ACE satellite is station-keeping, of course that only gives me a few light seconds warning…but the CME particles are moving much slower than lightspeed, it will be at least a few minutes depending on how fast they are traveling.
Since POES is down for terrestrial computer maintenace, I’m watching the OVATION aurora forecast model right now, but it doesn’t get very accurate until particles pass the L1 point and ACE relays the data…if the solar wind is too strong, ACE saturates the sensor and the forecast gets barmy. http://helios.swpc.noaa.gov/ovation/ Image below updates every 10 minutes.
This is also useful to watch, when it spikes, CME has hit L1
And Leif recommends this plot, MAG- SWEPAM plasma:
UPDATE: 2012-03-08 15:03 UTC Geomagnetic Storm has Started, Solar Radiation Storm Continues
The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout event from 0024 UTC March 7 (7:24 p.m. EST March 6) arrived at ACE at 1045 UTC today (5:45 a.m. EST March 8). So far the orientation of the magnetic field has been opposite of what is needed to cause the strongest storming. As the event progresses, that field will continue to change. Based on overall strength, the predictions for periods reaching the G3 level look justified. Additionally, the Solar Radiation Storm levels remain above the S3 (Strong) threshold at this time, with values rising momentarily with shock arrival. Region 1429 remains potent and subsequent activity is certainly possible. Updates here as conditions warrant.
Based on the magnetic configuration of 11429, the CME magnetic field will be pointing South when it hits the Earth. This would predict a strong storm.
Why don’t they build Flaremills ?
or solar flare panels…
Put them up right next to the windmills.
Keep all that green in one spot.
I either read somewhere or had a hallucination that during these kinds of events, residents of orbiting space craft actually see flashes of light in their closed eyes as the hydrogen nuclei scintillate inside of the eyeball. Pretty wild stuff when you consider all the micro electronics around you being shot full of charged particles.
I can’t imagine being violated by high energy protons, can’t be good for you DNA either.
Before I die I would like to see an aurora. I can get two days’ notice to buy airline tickets, but how far north would I have to go? Can I fly to Michigan? Or somewhere into Canada?
Alarm clock set .. tripod polished … lots of film (ha ha) and all ready to take photos.
Not seen good lights for years! Not before digital. Fingers crossed.
Rats! We have a high thin overcast tonight, in the Seattle area.
Same high thin ovc is over NE Oregon-plus that blasted full moon…
Hit statrs about 11:00 pm (2300) as I understand..
Anthony, you should show SWEPAM instead. The sign of the magnetic field is critical.
And – PJM (Pennsylvania Jersey Maryland) RTO ‘power’ control area are on top of it:
Per: https://emergproc.pjm.com/ep/guest_login.htm
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High System Voltage 03/07/2012
22:45 Mid-Atlantic – Region
Southern – Region As of 22:45 New hours, all companies shall take the following actions on the Bulk Electric System: 1. Switch capacitors out of service. 2. Switch reactors in service. 3. Ensure all SVCs are absorbing reactive power. 4. Generation Owners coordinate reactive power adjustments with Transmission Owners (TOs). 5. Generation Owners communicate with PJM and TOs restrictions to their generators ability to absorb MVARs that vary from existing “D” curve. Target: Distribution Companies/Transmission Owners/Generation
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Solar Magnetic Disturbance Warning 03/07/2012
18:30 PJM – RTO As of 18:30 hours, an SMD warning of K4 to K6 or greater is in effect beginning at 03:00 and will continue for the next 18:00 hours. PJM will issue any SMD events or extended warnings posted on the RCIS by MISO St. Paul via the PJM All-Call. Additional Comments: This is based on NOAA 3 hour planetary index. From 0300 March 8 until 2100 March 8.
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New York ISO:
http://www.nyiso.com/public/markets_operations/market_data/system_conditions/index.jsp
NYISO System States – Normal
ISO – New England:
http://www.iso-ne.com/psc/view.do
Power System Conditions – Normal
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> We have about three hours to go for the expected arrival time of the CME at 0625 UTC/1025 PST
0625 UTC is right, that makes it 2225 PST (the day before), and 0125 EST (where I have clouds).
@Mark wagner
North Bay and Sudbury are not too far off the beaten track from TO (Ontario) but even that’s often on the southern limits for araura viewing. Have seen them there though, summers, winters and even from inside the smaller city of North Bay.
Is there a way to quantify the energy represented by such a solar flare ?
It must be substantial if it can spike voltages in our power grids.
Can anyone convert it into an everyday measurement ?
I’m in cental east coast US. Clear sky but full moon. If effects are visable here does it matter which direction I should look? Is the effect sudden or does it continously build in intensity?
This is real time cosmic stuff here. LOL
The effect is really only seen on the more northerly Transmission Lines (NOT ‘grids’ really as the public fashionably likes to sling it these days) and on the longer runs of Transmission lines; the damage is the DC caused by the changing Geomagnetic field which induces GICs (Geomagnetic Induced Current) into the lines, causing magnetic flux changes in the transformers which may then ‘saturate’ on 1/2 of the cycle of the applied AC voltage, and the transformers have a specific BH curve (flux density- field intensity) that should not be exceeded, adding DC current to the AC already there causes the problem … when in saturation, the current level in the transformer can soar, no longer inhibited by counter a EMF which would be present were the transformer not in a magnetically saturated condition due to the added GIC.
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kbray in california says:
March 7, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Is there a way to quantify the energy represented by such a solar flare ?
It must be substantial if it can spike voltages in our power grids.
Can anyone convert it into an everyday measurement ?
Flares are one thing [and their energy can be measured and is known], but what concerns effects on the Earth, the important piece is the solar wind hitting us. The appendix [pages 31ff] of http://www.leif.org/research/Geomagnetic-Response-to-Solar-Wind.pdf has a calculation of the energy flux impinging on the Earth during a magnetic substorm [and a geomagnetic storm is just a sequence of several of those]. The result is 3 Terawatt.
_Jim says:
March 7, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Wiki gave me this:
A solar flare is a sudden brightening observed over the Sun surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10^25 joules of energy[1].
On my napkin, I did a quick conversion and I got 16.7 million x 1 billion KW hours.
That could power a few homes…
Ref: _Jim (above).
This is also similar to the mechanism of some of EMP, though the energy levels are smaller and much more localized.
Grrr….. meaning the EMP effects are on a much smaller scale. (could be read the other way, which is not what I meant)
Does the sudden increase in proton flux translate into corresponding atmospheric chemical changes…ie sulphur dioxide, methane hydroxyls, etc.,,, and a change in clouds that could be connected? (perhaps not unlike the GCR theory)
It would seem to me that the electrical concerns are only a part of the equation, and the climate or at least short term weather is influenced in some way.
[snip – sorry – wayyyy off topic, electric motors – Anthony]
I calculated it to be enough electricity to power every household in the USA for 6 years.
One rogue flare can do that…
I hope the sun stays “happy” for a long time.
If the earth is warming or cooling, the first suspect to look at has to be “El Sol”.
It’s the obvious.
southern auroras are spectacular when viewed from the adelaide hills, south australia.
during 1981, we saw one so bright that we thought it was a dreaded bushfire burning over the hill. we drove to the top of the hill, only to find that it seemed to be burning over the next hill ! we watched it for quite a while. it seemed to cover the whole sky, and reminded me of the massive curtains being pulled accross at the movies.
any news?