From Spaceweather.com:
New sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares(X1.4 on Sept. 22nd and X1.9 on Sept. 24th), can another be far behind? NOAA forecasters put the 24-hour probability at 20%. The sheer size of the active region suggests the odds might be even higher than that:
Each of the dark cores in this snapshot from the Solar Dynamics Observatory is larger than Earth, and the entire active region stretches more than 100,000 km from end to end. The sunspot’s magnetic field is crackling with sub-X-class flares that could grow into a larger eruption as the sunspot continues to turn toward Earth.
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Here’s some interesting images, graphs, and movies of the flare. Of particular interest is the forecast animation which suggests Earth might get glanced by a large Coronal Mass Ejection on September 26th.
Saturday morning, Sept. 24th, behemoth sunspot 1302 unleashed another strong flare–an X1.9-category blast at 0940 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:
This animated forecast track suggests Earth might get hit by a good sized CME on September 26th(click image if it does not animate). Note the center panel of the animation:
Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 26 at 14:10 UT (+/- 7 hours). Fortunately the bulk of this would be directed away from Earth, but the massive sunspot group can still produce more flares and CME’s as it rotates. It will be an interesting week of spaceweather
From the WUWT Solar page:
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Solar Dynamics Observatory – other image sizes: 4096 2048 1024 – Movie: 48 hr MPEG
SDO HMI Continuum: Greyscale images – 4096 2048 1024 – Movie: 48 hr MPEG (color)
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After reading this I feel like I should be alarmed…. Should I? Or does this just mean that ham radio operators will be hearing a few more crackles? This isn’t something that’s going to burn up telegraph wires, is it? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1859_solar_superstorm
So, back to life, and when the Earth continues to cool where will the warmists get their excuse from now?
Looks like this is already fading…. another “solar scare”…..
perhaps this is the real deal, but I have been watching this site the last 4 years trying to pump this sunspot cycle because of the forecast made in 2007 that by 2010-2011 this would be a hyper cycle. Yet I first became aware of sunspot/climate relationships in the early 90s when eastern bloc and Danish origin research said this cycle would go into the tank, and it formed the basis for a forecast of a mini ice age by 2030. While I am not buying the mini ice age idea, I am impressed that ideas I read almost 20 years ago whipped ideas from 5 years ago, though with each eruption, there seems to be a tendency on this site to say, here it comes. In any case whatever happens, in a few years we will be saying there it goes, and right now the forecast from 1992 when I read this is whipping the NASA idea from 06.
Excuse me, that is the NASA idea from 07. want to make sure I have my dates down since someone will use my misprint as a reason to make sure the main message is trashed
Excuse me, that is the NASA idea from 07. want to make sure I have my dates down since someone will use my misprint as a reason to make sure the main message is trashed..by the way I do like their site and watch it all the time. Its fascinating
Nothing in the southern regions?
But a wee bit OT but very important.
George Mitchell: Climate change skepticism will ‘not last’
http://bangordailynews.com/2011/09/23/news/portland/george-mitchell-climate-change-skepticism-will-%E2%80%98not-last%E2%80%99/?ref=region
George is/was affilated with DLA Piper who has a very significant interest in Carbon markets(especially their Australian affiliate) and renewable energy.
http://www.dlapiper.com/george_mitchell/
http://www.dlapiper.com/preparing-for-the-doe-renewable-energy-rapid-deployment-loan-guarantees/
Note: the loan guarantees are to expire on sept.30, 2011
Several CME’s were observed associated to the flares mentioned above.
The M7.1 event yesterday was accompanied by a partial halo CME observed
in SOHO/LASCO starting from 12h48. It speed was estimated to be around
1050 km/s based on the STEREO coronograph data. Other CME’s observed by
STEREO A and B and SOHO/LASCO can be associated with the M3.0, M5.8 and
M1.0 flares yesterday as well as with the M4.4, C7.9 (peak time, 03h31,
Cat 82, NOAA 13020), M7.4 and M3.1 flares today. PROBA2/SWAP and SDO/AIA
data show a clear EUV wave associated with the M7 flare today. As none
of the source regions of these CME’s are in the center of the solar
disk, we only expect possible glancing blows fram these events.
The GOES proton flux level remains elevated (>10MeV) and is further
increased by the current solar activity. A shock is observed in the
solar wind parameters measured by ACE around 11 UT this morning,
possibly related to the CME associated with the X flare on September 22.
The total magnetic filed strength jumped to 10 nT, while the solar wind
speed increased to 380 km/s. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet.
We expect them to increase to unsettled to active starting late this
evening as a result of al the CME’s in the past hours.
# Solar Influences Data analysis Center – RWC Belgium
# For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu
Not enough by far to be worried about.
It’s a respectable sunspot but it should not be defined as behemoth. How are they going to describe a really big one? Humongous? Monstrous? King-size?
Maybe they should give them sizes like cloths… S, M, L, XL, 2XL, 3XL, 4XL.
The Carrington Event of Sept. 1,1859- was during a relatively shallow cycle as I recall….
Yes, another possible ‘solar scare,’ either our power utilities are prepared or they are not, and there is not much we can do about that now. The Earth is a relatively small target for a worst-case event as these things go off like a cannon-shot from a relatively small spot on the Sun, not as a uniform blast from the whole solar surface.
From my own smoothed sunspot data, it appears that the time interval between the starts of cycles 9 and 23 was 152.930 years and the interval between cycles 10 and 24 was 152.851 years. The difference between those two intervals is only about 29 days. The infamous ‘Carrington’ event occurred during cycle 10 on September 1, 1859 (1859.668). Thus we might expect a similar major flair sometime around 2012.519 (June of next year), but the chances are good that the Sun would not be pointed at the Earth this time.
@ur momisugly Ray says:
September 25, 2011 at 9:05 am
It’s a respectable sunspot but it should not be defined as behemoth. How are they going to describe a really big one? Humongous? Monstrous? King-size?
Maybe they should give them sizes like cloths… S, M, L, XL, 2XL, 3XL, 4XL.
Perhaps microscopically insignificant. Compared to what, I would ask. It’s all relative.
Richard111 says:
September 25, 2011 at 8:54 am
Nothing in the southern regions?
You got it. In fact, I would say that the northern region is a fraction of where it should be in a normal cycle.
Yes, as petermue said, it appears there was a shock wave this morning from a CME. However, the Bz component of the Earth’s magnetic field stayed mostly positive. It’s when it turns negative, that we have major solar storms. I remember when we first moved out here (in northeast Colo. Springs) in 2001, we had no street lights, and the sky was very dark for good viewing. One night when my wife and I were returning from the store, she asked me what was wrong with the sky. I looked up, and it was a cherry red color, especially to the northeast. It was aurora!!! The Bz component given on Space Weather Now was pegged against the negative 60 stop on the dial (see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/ ).
I like comparing apples to apples, and since the story line is about a “Behemoth” sunspot, let’s see how big that really is:
– http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/SDO_latestLg.jpg –
Yesterday, SDO visible overlain on Ext. UV compoite.
Uncorrected Whole Spot of 1900
– http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/20031028_CEITspot.jpg –
SC23 Solar Maximum 2nd Peak- 2003/10/28 01:36UT
SOHO EIT 171,195,284 with MDI Continuum Luminance overlay.
Uncorrected umbra – 1392, whole spot – 11725
Seems to me that the spot area, though quite respectable, is a far cry from the Sun at the previous Solar Max (2nd peak). And as far as individual spots go, not even close to the really big spots seen in past decades.
The flare & CME thing, however, is another subject altogether.
As far as the overall Solar Activity level goes, the article gets carried away.
The problem arises because no relative comparisons are drawn.
Tsk, tsk.
Wasn’t it a month ago that the terms “new Dalton/Maunder minimum” and “quiet sun” were in play?
Wakee, bloody wakee, Polly.
I would suggest that not only is there much yet to be learned about sunspots and terrestrial climate change (or not), but also we don’t seem to have a predictive grasp on sunspot cyclicity, other than in the broad strokes of 11 year cycles.
Perhaps some of these will wind up being sufficient for more checks of just how much solar magnetism levels and cosmic ray incidence affects cloud cover levels….
Was looking for this…always gives me a laugh.
http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml
I expect that the September’s non-smoothed SIDC SSN to be around 70. If so, the sun is doing exactly as predicted several years ago;
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htm
The solar system’s clockwork is doing fine.
Has anyone here actually figured out yet what did cause the natural warming of the past 5 decades,
higher intensity sunshine or less clouds?
http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok
At least they have not washed it from them web. I will give them credit for that.
RE: Ray: (September 25, 2011 at 9:05 am)
“It’s a respectable sunspot but it should not be defined as behemoth. How are they going to describe a really big one? Humongous? Monstrous? King-size?”
There does appear to be a ‘Zurich’ method of sunspot *group* classification, on a scale of A through J, but this might not be suitable for public releases.
The Zurich Classification System of Sunspot Groups
Contributed by Tom Fleming (FLET)
http://www.aavso.org/zurich-classification-system-sunspot-groups
Alchemy says:
September 25, 2011 at 10:53 am
Yes, and they still should be. While we’re still a ways from Solar Max, the unsmoothed variation in solar activity bounces around a lot. http://spaceweather.com/ says the sunspot number is 88 (it counts region and spots) which is about the predicted maximum, above the predicted now (about 65). Note – the predictions are for smoothed data, in the last cycle the smoothed max was 120, the unsmoothed max was 170. A couple weeks ago we had a spike around 170.
Predictions for this cycle finally seem to have settled on something that is meeting reality. It’s what comes after the Max in 2013 that will be interesting.
Perhaps Leif can tell us whether L&P get any readings from 1302. The CMEs could also cause Forbush decreases; maybe as much as 30% of the GCR flux. Could be interesting.