Guest post by John Kehr
Based on the most current data it appears that 2010 is going to show the largest drop in global sea level ever recorded in the modern era. Since many followers of global warming believe that the rate of sea level rise is increasing, a significant drop in the global sea level highlights serious flaws in the IPCC projections. The oceans are truly the best indicator of climate. The oceans drive the world’s weather patterns. A drop in the ocean levels in a year that is being cited as proof that the global warming has arrived shows that there is still much to learned. If the ocean levels dropped in 2010, then there is something very wrong with the IPCC projections.
The best source of sea level data is The University of Colorado. Only government bureaucracy could put the sea level data in one of the places farthest from the ocean, but that is where it is. I use both data sets that includes the seasonal signal. So with and without the inverted barometer applied. This is the source of the data that is used to show that the oceans are rising. Of course the rate of rise is greatly exaggerated and if the rate from 1993-2010 is used there will be a 1m rise in the year 2361.
Of course the rate is not constant. The rate of rise over the past 5 years has been half the overall rate. At the rate of the past 5 years it will be the year 2774 before the oceans rise a single meter. Of course a decrease in the rate is technically an negative acceleration in the rate of rise, so technically the rate of rise is accelerating, but in a negative direction. That statement is misleading though as most people consider acceleration to be a positive effect.
Sea Level Change
Even more interesting is the fact that from 1992-2005 there was an increase each year. 2006 was the first year to show a drop in the global sea level. 2010 will be the 2nd year to show a decrease in sea level. That is correct, 2 of the past 5 years are going to show a decrease in sea level. 2010 could likely show a significant drop global sea level. By significant I mean it is possible that it will likely drop between 2-3 mm from 2009. Since the data has not been updated since August it is difficult to guess more precisely, but the data ends at the time of year that the seasonal drop begins to show up. If the drop does show up as expected it is possible that 2010 will show the largest drop in sea level ever recorded.
2010 could show a significant drop in sea level from 2009.
Of course what will happen won’t be known until the data for the past 5 months is made available. I have been patiently waiting for the data to be updated for several months now, but I got tired of waiting and decided to put the information I have out there.
One fact is certain. A drop in sea level for 2 of the past 5 years is a strong indicator that a changing sea level is not a great concern. In order for the IPCC prediction to be correct of a 1m increase in sea level by 2100, the rate must be almost 11 mm/yr every year for the next 89 years. Since the rate is dropping, it makes the prediction increasingly unlikely. Not even once in the past 20 years has that rate ever been achieved. The average rate of 2.7 mm/yr is only 25% of the rate needed for the IPCC prediction to be correct.
This is yet another serious blow the accuracy of the official IPCC predictions for the coming century. The fact that CO2 levels have been higher in the last 5 years that have the lowest rate of rise than the years with lower CO2 levels is a strong indicator that the claims of CO2 are grossly exaggerated.
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John Kehr runs the website The Inconvenient Skeptic – I recommend a visit. – Anthony
“shows that there is still much to learned”
It should read “still much to BE learned”, no?
This is just another sign of global warming: the oceans are boiling and intensified evaporation has caused temporary stop in sea level rise, which is actually not stop because 30-year trend is still steepest evah and the sea level rise is still churning in the background, and it will come back with tremendous force, haunting us in a year 3000, no kidding I read all that stuff somewhere.
I think the “deniers” have been siphoning up sea water and hiding it behind a paywall. We are a scurrilous lot indeed.
“Since the data has not been updated since August it is difficult to guess more precisely, but the data ends at the time of year that the seasonal drop begins to show up. ”
Perhaps they are reluctant to release the information to December 2010 because there is a further drop and that would spoil the fun for NASA/GISS trumpeting the warmest year on record. Can’t have the pals spoiling the fun with real information.
The sea level rise is dropping because the sun’s output is dropping.
Sun=major influence on climate. Will the IPCC get around to suggesting positive feedback from solar output, the way it does with greenhouse gases?
The truth will out in the end.
If the drop in 2010 SL is confirmed, then the explanations will be interesting. We are told that 2010 was the second warmest year ever and the last decade was the warmest ever. I thought that meant that the sea would expand, causing a rise in sea level. And what happened to all the melt water from the ice fields?
Maybe we will be told that not only does global warming cause extremely cold weather but it can also cause the sea levels to fall. Maybe the plug hole at the bottom of the ocean has sprung a leak.
Funny how the record temp data is precast before the end of the year and then available days after the end of the year, but sea level data showing sea levels descreasing is 5 months late and counting.
Nice article.
As I never cease to keep reminding people, the IPCC Chapter 5 on sea levels is riddled with problems from start to finish one of which is the lack of historic context. Sea levels have been rising and falling around a central point for the last 2000 years.
There is no evidence to show it was higher today than in the 18th century from which it declined then rose.
Similarly we know levels to have been higher than today in the Roman Optimum and MWP.
tonyb
Nice post! Has there been any discovery or speculation as to why there is a cyclical variation in the seal level during the course of the year? Seems to be a little strange unless it could be that more water is downunder and so it rises during the warm periods south of the equator but not as much rise during the summer north of the equator. Anyway it is an interesting variation during the year.
The next update will probably only be in February, as shown by the updates in the last years: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/release_notes.php
Ecotretas
I simply do not believe a satelite can measure sea levels with levels of accuracy in milimeters, yes, they are good, but not THAT good IMO. What I do know, from real life, ground based obsevations in coastal places like Portsmouth, Gosport, Emsworth and Exeter in the UK, sea leave rises have not been significant in several hundreds of years.
According to the Argo date set ocean surface temperatures are falling. It follows that there will be a thermal shrinking of this water thus lowering sea levels.
Does anyone honestly think it’ll make the slightest difference? Someone will come up with an explanation entirely consistent with AGW!
If was bold enough to bet “real money” on climate predictions, I’d bet that the average rate of sea level rise over the next 20 years will be less than 1mm/yr.
Nice post, John.
yeah strange there are lots of things to learn from nature indeed !
The apologists will say that the reason sea levels are not rising and may even reduce is because all the excess water from glacier melt and thermal expansion is now sitting in Wivenhoe Dam in Queensland, Australia.
Three cheers to Anna Bligh, the State Premier for her forward planning.
Excellent post, which clearly tells me it will be safe to go to the beach for a holiday for while yet!
Yes, but, it’s what the media decides to repeat that is important. Today, everything is “reported” it’s about what is repeated – the “legs” that pundits talk about with news stories. Today’s climate repeating by media is still mostly all what the warmist want it to be with very minor exceptions. There’s simply too much “invested” by the usual cast in the media. The delay is deciding if the numbers need to be fudged or how best to present them. The announcement will be typical to what we’re used to seeing. This is not a story like Piltdown Man – this is literally a gold mine for politicians, various agenda driven groups and business that reap huge profits from the Greenie econ myth. Which brings me to the myth of the GE 12 squiggly year light bulb that I just replaced after less that a year – seems it burned out. I’m checking now to see if I can send it to my congressman asking for a tax break but I still have a few hundred regs to read about sending hazardous materials through the mails, much less to anyone in DC.
Now you have revealed you hand, can we not be certain that the data, when eventually released, will have been ‘adjusted’ sufficiently far to prove that we are all gong to be drownded three weeks ago last Tuesday as the models tell us?
This is Climatology after all.
John how long before these results are known and what is the latest measurement as shown by satellite? For example do satellite measurements show similar results?
Buzzed it and will truly enjoy watching how the agwbelievers will manage to twist dropping to rising, like cold is the new warm!
umm will Tuvalu and other islands need to return funds, or just stop hitting other nations for guilt trips over their supposed sinking?
hell of long list of things that haven’t/aren’t happening isn’t there?
oceans cooling, less cyclones, extimct animals found alive, arctic still rather icy, antarctica doing just fine, siberias methane being covered again with snow and ice.
Josh may have to take a saw to his AGW table:-) another legs just got very wobbly!
That excess water is stored somewhere and it’s a travesty that we can’t account for it.
I’ve calculated the rate of rise since 2003, and made it available here.
Please notice that it has been going down (be careful: the rate is going down; not sea-level) almost continuously since the beginning of 2006, only interrupted in the fall2009-spring2010, probably due to “El Nino”.
Ecotretas
I think the MSM will try to hide the decline!
The linear regression shown at the beginning of this post is rather clear. There is a strong up trend, but with too much short term variability to give any meaning to one year’s data. Seems reasonable that variability will continue but that the long term trend will also continue.
Randall Harris 2:35am:
“….why there is a cyclical variation in the seal level during the course of the year?”
It’s because in the breeding season there are lots of baby seals, so the seal level goes up, then the polar bears come along and eat them and the seal level goes down again. Happens every year. 🙂