I’ve decided to step away from WUWT this weekend. Both my wife and I are sick with a cold. I’m very tired, and I need to do something else for awhile besides moderate squabbles; like work on my paper which keeps getting time taken away from it by the attention this blog requires.
If you have something worth posting on the front page, flag a moderator. Those that want to do guest posts are welcome to do so also. Again, flag a moderator for attention. Those that have author permission already, go for it.
I’ll resume posting if I feel up to it Sunday night.
In the meantime, talk quietly and politely amongst yourselves. Don’t make me come back here.
– Anthony
Good for you, a well deserved break.
Have a good weekend Anthony and thanks for everything you do.
Met Office drops seasonal forecasts. By Clive Cookson, Science Editor
Burnt by bad publicity over last year’s forecast of a “barbecue summer” – and its failure to warn the public of the coldest winter for 30 years – the Met Office has dropped its much-maligned seasonal forecasts.
The national weather forecaster would typically have issued its forecast for spring by early March. On thursday, however, it posted an explanation on its website.
“In our customer research the public have told us they would like a monthly outlook,” the Met Office said. “We have therefore decided to stop issuing a UK ‘seasonal forecast’ four times a year. Instead, we will now publish a monthly outlook, updated on a weekly basis.”
John Hammond, Met Office representative, denied that the change was a direct response to poor publicity. “We have done a lot of work with the public, finding out what they find useful,” he said.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/87b15120-2888-11df-a0b1-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1
Just have a good long rest, wish you speedy recovery.
How to get rich real quick without doing anything!
http://www.france24.com/en/20100305-eus-carbon-fat-cats-get-rich-off-trading-scheme-study?quicktabs_1=0
So that’s where I picked up my bug from. You darn skeptics.
Fluids, vitamins, and rest.
==============
Have a well deserved break … and hope the cold gets better soon.
Best wishes Margaret
JAXA – The latest value : 14,314,375 km2 (March 5, 2010) +99,375 since yesterday
Enjoy, relax and hope you get to feeling better soon!
I know it’s Mann. Just had to toss the cookie.
Have a good break Anthony.
Not directly climate related but interesting.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8546032.stm
Pity you have a cold,but i hope you enjoy your “time out” anyway.
thank you for your efforts and you do a wonderful job.. so you definatly need a break.. i am sure we who read and post here will look after this for you.
Its terrible to have to sort out grammatical pedants who have no concept of it’s effect on a blog author.
Well done, Anthony, and have a good break.
Take it easy, Anthony; you have developed enough momentum here for this outfit to keep rolling, driverless but to good purpose, for quite some time.
Donna Laframboise and Richard Tol have some pretty devastating criticisms of the IPCC working group 3 report.
‘……….despite vigorous protests from its own expert reviewers, in this chapter [11] only 58% of the documents cited by the IPCC were peer-reviewed.’
http://nofrakkingconsensus.blogspot.com/2010/03/almost-half-non-peer-reviewed.html
Anthony,
Refresh, and renew. And keep up the great work. Every day I watch in awe at you efforts and wonder how I can support you.
I have a PhD, but not a climate based discipline. I have sufficient passion to email the entire Australian Senate on a monthly basis. But most importantly I have children. Children that in their own innocence are capable of asking the right questions re: the role of man in climate change.
My proudest moment was when my son’s school report said “James takes particular interest in playing “Devil’s Advocate” in discussions regarding Climate Change. His insights are valued by the class”.
It may take time, but it is worth it.
Best regards,
Kiwi fruit will do you and yours a world of good, Anthony, and they taste great too. Kiwi are rich in phytochemicals, anti-oxidants, vitamins C and E and useful minerals.
Keep up the good work Anthony and have a good weekends break. Your excellent WUWT blog has always been more about quality than quantity. Oh and I promise to try and not start any squabbles with my comments on here!
Good idea, Anthony. And take no notice of the nit-picking grammarians and Scottish nationalists. This weblog is great. And a constant source of interest with so many articles coming thick and fast. Bravo!
Just dont tell the Missus you was with me in mermaid town.
Have a goodweegend as we say.
Mystic Met Office abandons long range forecasts
They’re rubbish, and they’ve run out of tea leaves
By Andrew Orlowski • TheRegister.co.uk
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/05/mystic_met/
The Met Office has confirmed it is to abandon long range weather forecasts, finally acknowledging criticism. The most recent forecasts were so inaccurate, that even the BBC is reconsidering whether to appoint an alternative supplier, such as Accuweather, after 88 years of continuous service from the 1,700-strong MoD unit.
The Mystic Met predicted a barbecue summer for 2009, and the third washout in a row, with the wettest July since 1914, duly followed. A mild winter was then given a high probability, only for the UK to suffer its coldest winter for 30 years. Yet Met Office staff received performance-related pay bonuses worth over £12m over 5 years, it was revealed last week, in response to a Parliamentary question………………………
Take the time to get better. Don’t rush it.
Warm up the house. Keep good company. Relax.
Can I ask if anyone can recommend a site which is looking at the (possibly/probably ) flawed economic assumptions of the alarmist movement? Seems to me that the economics surrounding the proposed governmental and intergovernmental reaction to AGW and the possible balance between mitigation and adaptation are just as ripe for audit and interrogation as the science. Is anyone pulling Stern apart alongside the CRU and IPCC?
Reply: Pielke’s been working on the disaster sections. ~ ctm
Awww c’mon folks, it’s just a cold. (will they get worse with global warming?)
You have been working long and hard, thats obvious. Don’t take any advice from the wanna be naturopaths. The only thing that’ll fix your cold is to share a bottle of Bundy Rum with the missus. That fixes everything.
** Ed Murphy (01:47:02) :
Kiwi fruit (sic) will do you and yours a world of good**
I couldn’t agree more, but Anthony’s timing for getting his cold (and me getting mine) is dreadful. Northern hemisphere fruit has been in storage for 3-6 months and the southern hemisphere fruit are not quite ready for picking. Fresh fruit are always the best.
Perhaps a week or two on holiday and ignoring us parasites 🙂 would work wonders, stress does funny things.
As a minor nit, kiwis are fluffy flightless nocturnal birds. or colloquially people from New Zealand. Would you abbreviate grapefruit to grape?
Hope people take note about your comment about squabbles…. Goodness knows where I would get my info if you decided to do a Richard Dawkins and close your blog because you got fed up with the antagonism in some comments.. Hope people take note and moderate themselves in their bombast! Thanks Anthony. This blog has been a real eyeopener to em for the last 3 yrs or so… Denis
I’ve got a horrible cold too. Don’t feel like doing anything. Have a nice snooze and some hot toddies and a much deserved weekend away from the Cause.
Brilliant graphic ….
This just in: “It’s warmer today than it was yesterday!”
Have some deserved timeout, Ants. I’ve a week off-tomorrow we’re headed for Scotland’s NW Highlands and three days on the 2.3 Ga gneiss shield. Still staggers me how these areas still exist but I suppose we catch them while we can! Hats off to the Appalachians – that Caledonian Orogeny has many stories yet to unfold…
SOT, but there were recent attempts at extracting DNA from UK’s only Polar bear remains, dated 18kyo, presumed as in-wash into a cave system at Inchnadamph, NW Scotland, alas proving not possible. Just for the mix, there was lynx, and, I believe, elk, too, amongst others. Food for thought.
Even though you have a cold, enjoy your down time.
Thanks for all you efforts in making this the best climate topic site on the net !!!
Anthony you are doing an excellent job. Please keep it up after having your rest. However, I sometimes feel we are all going around in circles. We keep reading here and elsewhere lots of material against the AGW thesis, which in a court would probably prove beyond any doubt that it’s a fraud and a hoax. Yet, it keeps going, and I suspect is probably going to thrive to the point of reaching its ultimate aim – to rob us of more money via new taxes and price hikes, all in the name of saving the planet from an unproven man-made threat. I’m almost resigned to this but at least we all know the truth. By all means let’s keep up the fight as we might still win but I doubt it given the resources the governments have at their disposal, and that fact that most of the media is part of the problem. I can already here the AGW alarmists screaming out “I told you so” at every slight rise in temperatures from here on end. If they say it often enough most of the public will believe it. As Hitler found out never allow the public to cool off; never admit a fault or wrong; never concede that there may be some good in your enemy; never leave room for alternatives; never accept blame; concentrate on one enemy at a time and blame him for everything that goes wrong; people will believe a big lie (AGW in our case) sooner than a little one; and if you repeat it frequently enough people will sooner or later believe it.
Certainly a cold is no fun, it is unfortunate that you have to hush the kids and admonish them to stop squabbling, again.
Haven’t yet figured it out but will the dedicated CAGWs change the terminology for the virus infection to having a hot? or the hots?
Anthony and family – have a well-deserved break. Many (me included) owe you a huge debt for your skills as a scholar and your passion for truth.
No advice from me, just thanks,
Alexander
My advice at this time of year against colds:
Dice a pink grapefruit into half a liter of low fat yoghurt. Add two tea spoons of sesame seed. Top it up with a few drops of dark sesame oil. Stir. Consume with a double espresso.
This should load you up with mystical asian superpowers. Seems to work for me. Colleagues have been dropping like flies from cold the past three months. Not my kid and me. Sesame is the man.
Get well quickly and then take some time to kick back and do what you have to do. Running a blog like this is a lot of work and I appreciate your efforts. Hope your wife feels better soon too of course.
I find that an effective treatment for the common cold are several drams of scottish nectar, preferably the Orcadian variety, while seated in a comfortable chair with my feet up. repeat as needed. And on the odd time when this treatment does not work, it doesn’t matter.
crossopter (04:10:08) :
Lucky you visiting the NW Highlands of Scotland over what promises to be a beautiful blue skied cold and crisp weekend. When the sun shines up there it’s one of the mose beautiful places in the world.
This Scotsman is on a drilling rig in the rice paddies of western Laos.
Now that (meteorlogical) winter is finished, maybe the sniffles will go away.
Speaking of winter, here was the NOAA forecast for the lower 48: less precipitation, except for California and a southern storm tract, and warmer than normal, especially in the midwest. I grade them a gentlemen’s “C.”
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html
Any other opinions?
You should arrange things with your guest authors so that you can do this *every* weekend, Anthony.
Moderator: DMI Arctic ice extent is at it’s highest level on record.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Anthony, being sick with a cold means you’re a Denier!
In all seriousness, rest up and have a good weekend.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/seaice/hires/global.xml
Note the red dots interspersed with the shown and known blue heavy sea ice in the Baltic sea–
These red dots are perfectly correlated with the ice breaker acivity there and with the movement in that area of the large ferries and 50 other ships.
Re Steve Goddard (06:00:54) I realise you are just mocking alarmists by saying the Arctic ice extent is the “highest level on record,” while the record is just 5 years.
I believe it is better to just say sea ice continues to recover from current and wind driven lows of 2007, the lows which sparked ridiculous predictions.
The Cryosphere graph shows Arctic ice greater than existed in 2005, 2006 and 2007, and maybe it will yet be greater than 2008 and 2009.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png
Everything comes to them who wait..
Seems you waited too long;-)
Relax, recoup, recline and unwind!
GB You and Yours & GWS
PS: I you’re as smart as I think you are you won’t read this until you get back. Hope feel a whole lot better now!
Well, we hope you get better soon.
Steve G. : “Moderator: DMI Arctic ice extent is at it’s highest level on record.”
Are we there yet?
” Writing in Quaternary International, scientists from the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), the Saxon Academy of Sciences (SAW) in Leipzig and the Russian Academy of Sciences say that a short warming event at the very end of the last interglacial period marked the final transition to the ice age.”
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-03/haog-wsw030210.php
I agree on the hot rum or brandy (coffee is my favourite medium) or a hot chocolate mixed with a nut liqueur. Agreed with the well-earned rest. Agreed with the grammar nit-picking. Are there any of the helpful grammar police that you know well enough that you’d trust them to proof-and-edit the active posts? Usually having to actually do the work cools people’s ardour for “this needs fixing”.
Thanks for a wonderful site and the wide variety of interesting stories. Don’t burn yourself out, it’s great having your take on things.
Perhaps you caught the bug from the code?
Zinc tabs too under the tongue.
Know how you feel, is there life after blogs?
I decided to weigh in on the silliness abounding over the methane out gassing discovered in Siberia
http://strata-sphere.com/blog/index.php/archives/12945
For some reason Freakzoid complaining of ‘poo gas’ just keeps echoing in my mind
Daylight Saving Time. Dinosaur from the days of the turn of the 20th Century.
Watch as accidents and other phenomena increase for the next 2 weeks following the change as biological rythms are thown for a loop.
A prediction: Here in Minnesota, it will warm sufficiently enough for the garden centers and flower marts to open their doors in April and offer green plants for sale.
Anthony: Silly question but……………….how does one flag a moderator?
Johnnny
[Say something like “MODERATOR: yadda yadda” with your comment and we’ll notice it while moderating… – AlertMod]
Anthony:
As others have said, deserved break. (And you and the wife DO need to be idle and fight the dreaded modern “plauge”, a bad head cold. CAN lead to more nasty things. Keep it under control.)
But our poster just before me says:
Warren in Minnesota (07:31:51) :
A prediction: Here in Minnesota, it will warm sufficiently enough for the garden centers and flower marts to open their doors in April and offer green plants for sale.
——————————————————-
Having just done 45 minutes of “hard labor” getting rid of a troublesome ice dam on my roof (axe and 10 lbm sledge..roof is redone this summer, that’s been scheduled!) I’m giving Warren and “Oh Yeah!”. But he is right. Even when it SNOWS ON APRIL 10th (every third year), the garden centers do open up. They don’t open up any LATER than historically recorded, nor do they open up earlier! Gosh, they depend on the OVERALL AVERAGE BEHAVIOR of the weather. Heck, what a concept.
Warren: At least one other contributor (me) gets the MN humor. Say hello to Garrison for me would you?
Anthony,
Chicken soup! All those Jewish mothers are right!
1 chicken (5-7 lbs)
12-15 cups water
10 cloves garlic minced.
Skin the chicken.
in a large stockpot put in some olive or peanut oil with the garlic.
heat enough to just brown the garlic. Add a chopped onion then the chicken. Add the water and 2 tsp salt and as much fresh cracked pepper as you want along with 5 bullion cubes.
cook for 1 to 1 1/2 hours.
Remove chicken and debone it.
put the chicken meat back in the soup along with 3 cups of brown rice another chopped onion 2 chopped carrots and 4 chopped ribs of celery.
Add 1/2 pkg of frozen mixed vegetables and plenty of chopped sage rosemary and thyme or 2 tbsp of poultry seasoning.
Cook for 45 minutes to 1 hour.
Good for what ails you. You can add more or less water depending on how soupy you want it. Most excellent fresh but it does freeze very well.
This should be enough to last you through the cold.
Regards
Sometimes a good laugh helps. This is my favorite picture of Gore:
http://www.weeklystandard.com/
Get better soon, Mr. Watts!
http://www.weeklystandard.com/issue/422521?from%5Bvalue%5D%5Byear%5D=&from%5Bvalue%5D%5Bmonth%5D=&to%5Bvalue%5D%5Byear%5D=&to%5Bvalue%5D%5Bmonth%5D=
Now that is a laugh and a half!
Great article by Steven Hayward. Funny picture of Algore.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/denial
Cure for the common cold:
1- Stickout little finger and 4th finger [like hook um horns] next to glass
2-Pour two fingers of whiskey in glass [no ice]
3- Do same for poor long suffering wife.
4- Soak in hot tub [as hot as you can stand] while drinking whisky
5- Dy off and get in bed with pile of blankets [or an electric blanket]
6- Sweat it out
Anthony, I also have a cold. Fortunately, mine is fairly mild. I know stress makes colds worse, so take your time and relax.
Once again, thanks for the great website. It gives me something to relax and enjoy while I’m recovering. The best medicine I could get!
Possible topic re Alternative energy
The EPA have scaled back the mandated the cellulosic Ethanol production from 100mg/y to 6.5 since the development of cellulosic ethanol is seriously delayed. There are no commercial operating plants although the government is betting our future on this type of technology.
See
http://blogs.forbes.com/energysource/2010/02/25/diminishing-expectations-from-range-fuels/
“So taxpayers funded a 40 MGY wood-based ethanol plant and they are instead getting a 4 MGY wood-based methanol plant. The technology to produce methanol from synthesis gas (the output of Range’s gasifier) was invented in 1923, and is widely used in the petrochemical industry today. It appears that the wheel has been reinvented at taxpayer expense. This is a rather remarkable fall for Range Fuels, who burst onto the scene a few short years ago with grandiose claims of producing massive volumes of cellulosic ethanol at a lower price than corn ethanol. They put out a steady stream of press releases, made of number of big claims, and more importantly they took a lot of taxpayer money.”
Charles, please E-mail me! I have suggestions and can’t figure out tips thingie. MODERATOR
You only have to work March 11-12.
Dont think phil jones is feeling too good either!
Have a good rest Anthony. It seems you get the meteorologist embodied as your flu forecastes springtime 🙂
In recognition of the fact of AGW surely its time the head ‘cold’ should now be renamed a ‘tepid’ or even a ‘warm’ in more severe cases. Speedy recovery from your ‘tepid’ Anthony
IPCC gray report
http://nofrakkingconsensus.blogspot.com/2010/03/great-peer-review-fairy-tale.html
Interesting Ad by Google appearing on this site today – “Rajendra Pachauri (Nobel Peace Prize winner) at the London Speaker Bureau.” Thought he had enough to do…
chicken soup
Steve in SC (08:04:56)
“…as much cracked pepper as you want along with five bullion cubes.”
In the interests of culinary-disaster prevention, I take it as read you imply the American/worlwide bullion (10>9) and not the British bullion (10>12) ?
Okay, I’ll get my coat…..
Anthony
I’d just like to add my thanks to those who already have here.
Sometimes it’s important for us to remember who is doing all the hard yards – you are!
Just remember we are appreciative of what you and your team do. Get a good break – gosh a weekend ain’t a good break in my book. And forget those bl—y nitpickers!!
cheers
Doug
Anthony
I don’t know if anyone might read this
Recover! Thank you SO much for this forum. I ‘backed into’ it as a result of my involvement in the USA Tea Party phenomena. Citizens and scientists alike sooner or later ‘wake up’ and realize that they might be being used.
I am a scientist myself, and respect what you are doing!
Garlic …… one garlic pill a day will keep your colds away.
But since you already have one let me give you a 100% sure fire way to get rid of it. A cup of hot tea, no milk or sugar, add a jigger of whiskey, add lemon juice from 1/2 lemon, drink each night at 9:00 P.M. In 10-14 days your cold will be gone.
Ref – Steve in SC (08:04:56) :
“Anthony,
“Chicken soup!…”
__________________________
Campbells’ is Quicker! (and less “Garlic”;-(
Also… Saltine Crackers (preferabley Nabisco)
and… Ginger Ale (Store Brand is fine), ‘Night’ or ‘Nite’ Time Cold Medicine(Store Brand is fine), & Vit. C.(Store Brand is fine)
and… staying in bed for 3-4 days has been known to add to recovery.
When you’re saturated with these and caught up on sleep, you’ll feel so much better and you’ll actually want to eat and drink real food and do something;-)
o†=∞◊
( open thread = infinite source )
—~» sunlight on your skin is the #1 defense against illness
—~» food-state vitamins are amazing: http://174.132.164.222/~lovemega/
WuWT is rapidly approaching 40,000,000 hits and the hockey stick points way way up.
One big lie destroyed, many more to go…
—~» govprop Big Lies don’t work anymore
—~» destroying the Big Lies of mainstream medicine: http://www.naturalnews.com/
—~» WHO lies vs. Vac Truth: http://vactruth.com/
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—~» elect more like this guy: http://www.house.gov/paul/
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—~» { registration required \ open minds preferred }
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• http://coloradoschildren.ning.com/profile/ecliptic
—~» 1,021 days to go: http://www.diagnosis2012.co.uk/
———~« ecliptic »~———
CHARLES – Topic Suggestion:
CLIMATE BRAWL
Three States Sue EPA Over Global Warming Ruling
FOXNews.com
The EPA, which is threatening to regulate carbon emissions if Congress won’t, is facing legal heat from states that say new regulations will kill jobs at the worst possible time.
The bitterly contested fight in Washington over global warming and pollution is also taking hold at the state level.
The Environmental Protection Agency, which is threatening to regulate carbon emissions if Congress won’t, is facing legal heat from states that say new regulations will kill jobs at the worst possible time.
Texas, Alabama and Virginia, all led by Republican governors, have filed petitions since December, when the EPA ruled that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide endanger human health, clearing the path for the agency to issue mandatory regulations to reduce them.
As the EPA grapples with the lawsuits, Congress is trying to block the agency from acting without congressional approval. Sen. John Rockefeller, D-W.Va., introduced legislation Thursday calling for a two-year suspension of potential EPA regulations.
Rockefeller and other lawmakers from coal mining states oppose the EPA’s plan to target power plants and other industrial facilities.
The EPA already agreed, after Rockefeller complained last month, to delay phasing in its regulations until the end of the year. But that hasn’t satisfied global warming skeptics.
Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli said last month the finding could “create a staggering burden” on the state.
“Put into effect, the finding would a place a crushing burden on jobs and the economy of Virginia,” he said. “And while some parts of Virginia would be hit harder than others, every Virginian would take an economic beating if this goes forward.”
The inflation of energy prices alone would ripple through the economy with devastating effect
He added: “While we’re open to seeing where honest, unbiased science leads us in the climate policy arena, we’re not prepared to stand by while EPA proceeds to implement jobs-destroying regulations based on unverifiable and unrepeatable so-called science.”
Texas Gov. Rick Perry said the finding would usher in a new era that would destroy his state’s ability to provide energy to the rest of the world. Stacked with oil refining and other industries, Texas is the top carbon dioxide emitter in the country and would be heavily affected if mandatory emissions reductions go into effect.
“They’re using sweeping mandates, Draconian punishments to force a square peg of their vision into the round hole of reality,” he said. “In the process, they’re preparing to undo decades of progress while painting hardworking entrepreneurs as selfish and destroying hundreds of thousands of jobs in the process.”
The EPA has responded to the lawsuits with a statement saying the “evidence of and threats posed by a changing climate are right before our eyes.”
Ah, here is the battle line. Where is the evidence of global warming?
“EPA is proceeding with common sense measures that are helping to protect Americans from this threat while moving America into a leadership position in the 21st century green economy,” the statement read. “Unfortunately, special interest and other defenders of the status quo are now turning to the courts in an attempt to stall progress. …
“EPA is confident the finding will withstand legal challenge, allowing the agency to protect the American people from the significant dangers posed by greenhouse gases and carbon pollution.”
When did the legal profession become climate science experts?
Fighting back on behalf of the EPA is a coalition of 16 states and New York City, arguing that without regulations, climate change will adversely affect them.
Those states are: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington.
Most of these states sued the EPA during the Bush administration over its decision not to regulate carbon dioxide pollution as a contributor to global warming.
Red States vs Blue States?
The White House would prefer for Congress to legislate climate change. The House narrowly passed a cap-and-trade bill in June that would allow industry to buy and trade pollution permits, but it has stalled in the Senate.
That’s a start. But while the status of climate science is being hotly questioned, a moratorium should be enforced.
But really, some have begun to wonder whatever happened to the way we operated before…i.e. – what was so wrong about Superfund Cleanups?
read the rest of the story here: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2010/03/04/states-sue-epa-global-warming-ruling/
Scientists come to a conclusion: Asteroid killed the dinosaurs
http://www.universetoday.com/2010/03/04/scientists-come-to-a-conclusion-asteroid-killed-the-dinosaurs/
[Yeah, tho that dirty word ‘consensus’ is being tossed around there too… – PickyMod]
Anthony, get well soon, because we all miss you already.
Extra sleep reduces severity of cold symptoms.
I’m not sure how to flag a moderator, but there is another magnetic filament on the Sun which I posted on the great filament thread, for the solar scientists to check out:
The Great Filament Part 2? There appears to be a new filament appearing in upper left on the Sun:
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/eit_304/512/
Dr Svalgaard, Dr Evans, John Whitman and all you folks who know what you are talking about, can you please confirm?
Interesting, (beating my own drum here) that early in this thread I mentioned that there was a magnetic filament on the far side, which I think is what we are now seeing.
Thank you everybody
Skylurker Suranda
Just to throw something out to think about on a long weekend. In the US and Canada there is a law called civil RICO. Basically if there is a conspiracy to commit certain crimes by a bunch of folks acting in common, anyone effected can collect triple damages without having to obtain criminal convictions. I believe fraud is one of the keystone crimes. The players don’t even have to know it other, they just need to aid the conspiracy. It is something that needs to be looked at by a very good criminal lawyer, but it appears to me that we have now arrived at a point where enough instances of fruad to obtain public money could bring RICO into play. Love to hear from a good lawyer on what they think. Thanks.
reading material…
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Gray_Rebuttal_to_Emanuel.pdf
Sunday paper in Sydney, Australia:
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/hot-air-and-the-rising-tide-of-doubt-buoys-climate-cynics-20100306-ppng.html
While this shows that 60% are still believers, there is a trend with 37% now don’t think AGW is real, compared with 21% last year.
Slowly, but things are on the improve!
Heres a direct link to the al gore picture.
http://s3.amazonaws.com/twitpic/photos/full/72050383.jpg?AWSAccessKeyId=0ZRYP5X5F6FSMBCCSE82&Expires=1267903340&Signature=7FCtPKsYRiieuQvY4h2aXvEfbrk%3D
What you do here is very important and much appreciated.
I’m sorry to hear that you are ill and tired; you deserve a good rest. I hope that you get better very soon. I also hope that you can schedule time off every week; none of us is a machine. Perhaps one can act like one and have a proper time out for servicing!!!
Thankyou for what you have done.
Annei.
I have a suggestion for Anthony and the mods about something that should make killing the AGW idea totally. Post, in list form, ALL the things that can contribute to global climate. Begin with the sun, work down through orbital mechanics, chime in on all the natural effects, and end up with human activity – from forestry to crops to urban heat island. Don’t try to explain, just list. There’s not a “model” in the world that can deal with those complexities, and leaving out even ONE of them will give “scientists” false results.
BTW, Anthony, my oldest daughter’s pediatrician used to prescribe whiskey, honey, and lemon – and explained how and why it worked. Try it.
O.T. but I thought this article shows that large sums of public money were being spent nearly sixty years ago on the holy grail of ‘FREE’ energy. I got that ‘déjà vu’ feeling when browsing a Mechanix Illustrated mag dated June 1952. This article with its’ 48pt heading ‘SUPER-WINDMILLS’ on a background of giant 465foot steel towers topped with not one but three huge propeller driven generators scattered across a pristine mountain valley with a sub heading ‘Plans are being made to harness mankinds’ oldest and cheapest source of power for industry by means of huge aerogenerators’ grabbed my attention. The article by Frank Tinsley(is this gentleman still with us) is as follows
The next few years may see a decided change in the landscape of our country. In certain strategic places which promise a constant strong wind, such as mountain passes, will grow strange structures resembling the Martian machines of H.G.Wells. However these will be instruments of construction rather than destruction- tall steel towers supporting fans to convert wind energy into electrical power.
Members of the Congressional Interior & Insular Affairs Committee are enthusiastic ovr a new proposal to erect these machines. Introduced by Representative J.R.Murdoch, D.Ariz. chairman of the committee, a bill drawn up by the department of the Interior and endorsed by the Federal Power Commission authorizes a $2,750,000 government project to build a test aerogenerator(I think this equates to $27,000,000 at todays rate)
In 1941, a full scale instrument was built on a mountain top in Vermont and hooked up to the high tension system of the Central Public Service Corp. as an auxillary power source. Mounted on a 110ft tower, its’ twin 56ft blades were designed to develop 1,200 KW at a wind velocity of 30mph. Under favourable condtions, it actually developed 1,400KW. Although a practical success, structural and financial difficulties ended the experiment.
The newly proposed design is the product of years of research by Percy H. Thomas a well known power plant engineer formerly of the Federal Power Commission. Towering 475ft above the ground and equipped with a pair of three- bladed impellers, it operates automatically in a wind as light as 10mph. At its maximum required velocity of 28mph it delivers 7,500KW. During dangerously high winds the impeller blades can be feathered and braked to a halt. The structure is stressed to withstand hurricane velocities of up to 200mph. The plat is completely self contained with a central generator, converter, transformer, etc., mounted in a rotating housing atop the tower. The energy developed by the 150ft diameter impellers is transmitted to the generator through geared- up shafting. All parts of the plant are accessible for inspection and repair.
The techniques of modern airplane construction suggest the possibility of further development of this design. The use of light metals would lighten loads and relieve stresses. A central tubular elevator shaft would strengthen the structure, provide easier access to the operating head in foul weather and and act as a protected duct for the power lines. The addition of a third impeller unit would increase the power output by 50% while increasing the overall weight of the rotating head by 25%. Mounting small individual generators in each impeller nacelle not only balances the weight of the wheel but also eliminates weighty, vibration producing, shaft transmissions. Instead, simple power lines are led through the pylons and elevator shaft to the ground where the heavy elements of the plant are installed in a substantial building. This placement converters, transformers etc., materially lightens the structure.
Depending on the ever-changing wind, a single aerogenerator obviously cannot be relied upon for continuous or ‘firm’ power. However interconnected but scattered units can maintain a firm average output. Tests indicate that wind velocities ion given locations remain constant for 22 out of the 24 hours. This can be enhanced further by placing the aerogenerator groups in mountain passes where converging ranges funnel the wind flow in strong, steady venturi effect. Such groups operating as a free fuel auxilliary to established steam or hydroelectric systems, may supply up to 40% ofr the total utility power. During slack periods of consumption, this aeroenergy can pump used water back into reservoirs, thus storing power for future use. This means that in droughts, scarce water can be used to develop power over and over again.
AS compared with complicated steam power plants and the vast sums spent on hydroelectric dams and reservoirs, the first cost of the aerogenerator is modest. Even this would be considerably reduced by the limited mass production necessary to produce a moderate number of aerogenerator complexes. Once installed, operation costs are extremely low.
European experts working under the Marshall plan(I remember it well) have launched a research program to speed the harnessing of the wind for electricity. England is said to be three years ahead of us in development. Recently a German engineer entered the field with a proposal to build 1000ft wind towera to provide power for the industrialization of Schleswig-Holstein.
Russia led the world in aerogeneration development during the 1930’s buit like most other Red scientific projects its post war status is veiled by the Iron Curtain. In her desperate effort at industrialisation she may seize the lead again. Meanwhile, with Congress now alerted to the opportunity, we can hope that America is awakening to the possibilities of this great, free source of untapped power.
All I can comment is ‘The wheels of Congress do grind exceedingly slow’
Note to Moderator bin this if of no interest I sha’n’t be offended
Dear Anthony and Missus W, upon reading these wonderful posts, please know how much you are appreciated and loved!!
My own personal cold remedy is several shots of Czech slivovitz (plum brandy), aka “liquid fire.” This is based upon many years of peer-reviewed research and duplication of experiments.
And-a-one, and-a-two…”GET BETTER SOON!” We’ll hold down the fort!
Anyone know what happens when the AO/NAO correlation breaks down and goes into a major-league diversion?
The AO is going positive again
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif
But the NAO is forecast to go down a bit over the next week or so
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
What can a negative NAO do without the blocking of a negative AO?
Being one of the much-maligned pedants, I have offered (in the skeeter-zapper thread) to help proofread, and I’m sure other pedants and grammar police would, too. The problem we would face in this era of instant publishing is how to avoid being a roadblock in the face of onrushing posts.
In defense of pedantry and proofing, I will just note that, as a general rule, the less excuse you give the opposition to discount your words (e.g. “those guys can’t even spell”), the stronger your position. Given the flood since Climategate, that may not be practical, but it’s worth keeping in mind. And it goes for commenters, too.
I agree with brandy (cognac, if you can afford it) or rum for colds. Though my wife (a physician) says that alcohol inhibits the immune system. To which I respond, “Hit me again!”
/Mr Lynn
I know that this is OT, but worth a chuckle – just visited Realclimate to see what they are saying and there is a major grumble titled “The Guardian Disapoints”. How sad, the dear old Grauniad is frowned upon for attempting to be objective – wow!
MODERATOR: The sun is spotless for the first time in well over a month. Think a Guest Author could write an article about the sun’s current lack of activity? Be sure to also mention the Solar Wind decline, the continually low Ap/Kp indices, and the recent drop in 10.7 Radio Flux.
Don B,
My complete statement was “DMI Arctic ice extent is at it’s highest level on record.” – which is correct. I didn’t say :
“Arctic ice extent is the “highest level on record,””
as you suggested I did. I’m usually fairly precise with my wording, and would appreciate it if people don’t read anything more into what I am saying.
Inre: Internet Freedom
‘In order to please our European allies and our Third World critics, the Obama administration may be tempted to surrender one particular manifestation of American “dominance”: central management of key aspects of the Internet by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Other countries are pushing for more control. Early this year, British cabinet member Andy Burnham told the Daily Telegraph that he was “planning to negotiate with Barack Obama’s incoming American administration to draw up new international rules for English language websites.”
There are persistent proposals to break the connection between IANA and the U.S. government. In these schemes, IANA [the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority] would be directed by some international body, such as the United Nations or the International Telecommunication Union, which coordinates international phone networks.”
Perhaps most serious, control of Internet names could become a lever to impose restrictions on Internet content. Many governments already attempt to control speech on the Internet. Some years ago, Yahoo! was subject to criminal proceedings in France for allowing Nazi memorabilia to be auctioned on its website. Britain, Canada, and Australia all have mandatory nationwide blacklists of banned sites, managed by nongovernmental regulators with minimal political oversight.’
Inre: Internet freedom
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton:
“We are also supporting the development of new tools that enable citizens to exercise their rights of free expression by circumventing politically motivated censorship. We are providing funds to groups around the world to make sure that those tools get to the people who need them in local languages, and with the training they need to access the internet safely. The United States has been assisting in these efforts for some time, with a focus on implementing these programs as efficiently and effectively as possible. Both the American people and nations that censor the internet should understand that our government is committed to helping promote internet freedom.
We want to put these tools in the hands of people who will use them to advance democracy and human rights, to fight climate change and epidemics, to build global support for President Obama’s goal of a world without nuclear weapons, to encourage sustainable economic development that lifts the people at the bottom up.
That’s why today I’m announcing that over the next year, we will work with partners in industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations to establish a standing effort that will harness the power of connection technologies and apply them to our diplomatic goals. By relying on mobile phones, mapping applications, and other new tools, we can empower citizens and leverage our traditional diplomacy.”
http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2010/01/135519.htm
Inre: Internet freedom
“In an effort to show the world how inclusive, sharing, cooperative, and international America can be, the Obama administration set off on a plan to surrender control and key management of the Internet by the U.S. Department of Commerce and its agents.
The key to the control America has over the Internet is through the management of the Domain Name System (DNS) and the giant servers that service the Internet.
Domain names are managed through an entity named IANA, the Internet Assigned Numbers Authority. The IANA, which operates on behalf of the U.S. Department of Commerce, is responsible for the global coordination of the DNS, IP addressing, and other Internet protocol resources.
In short, without an IP Address or other essential Internet protocols, a person or entity would not have access to the Internet.
For years, the international community has been pressuring the United States
to surrender its control and management of the Internet. They want an international body such as the United Nations or even the International Telecommunications Union, (an entity that coordinates international telephone communications), to manage all aspects of the Internet in behalf of all nations.”
read more here
http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/obama-internet-iana-united/2010/01/31/id/348514
Hmmm. The last time Anthony took some time off and left Charles in charge, all hell broke loose. Just sayin’.
Get well; get rested; come back refreshed.
Open thread weekend — what a marvelous idea. Have these things more often so that you can recharge when you’re feeling good and not just when your batteries are drained. Use them to set time aside to take your wife out on a date, so that the last thing you check out before heading out is each other and not what’s happening on the blog.
Adam from KS, not sure I can answer your question. However, I notice that the sea ice extent in Arctic Ocean is fast approaching its long-term mean, as AW had predicted sometime back.
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/
I find it instructional to review this site on a daily basis just to see how wrong the mainstream climate community is on their Arctic predictions!
University of IL also has a website worth reviewing, please see:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/
Get well soon host and hostess. Glad you’re taking a well deserved break. I’d noticed that you were clearly run down when you started snapping at the “grammar pedants”
As Mr L has already stated these guys are on your side. Totally and unequivocally!
Anthony, words are inadequate to describe just how much your personal sacrifices are appreciated by so many.
Rest, recuperate and re-enter the arena when you’re 100% ready. Your moderator generals are more than capable of holding the fort for as long as it takes.
Thank you.
Suranda (10:38:09) :
there is another magnetic filament on the Sun which I posted on the great filament thread […] can you please confirm?
This is not a good thread for this [post instead over on the G.F thread], but, yes there are new filaments, in fact, there are filaments all the time. I don’t know of a single day, ever, where we have observed the Sun and there were no filaments. At solar max there are filaments related to the active regions and at solar minimum there is a ‘crown’ of filaments surrounded each polar cap. They are not all ‘Great Filaments’. Some are indeed bigger than others.
“the whole anthropogenic global warming (AGW) position can be easily defused without any reference to science at all, because the error, at root, is epistemological.”
Check out this philosophy:
http://rayharvey.org/index.php/2010/01/global-warming/
In an email from James Hansen he told me that your cold will only get worse. You will develop a fever that will increase at a rapidly increasing rate as the days go on and will be the highest ever recorded. About 40% of your hair will fall out and your toenails will recede and likely be gone by mid week. Your saliva will become increasingly acidic and you’ll start emitting large amounts of methane (better open a window). He mentioned that the only cure a particular remedy he knows of but it will cost around $4 billion just to find out about it.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton:
“[O}ne internet, one global community, and a common body of knowledge that benefits and unites us all” and “access to the same set of facts and opinions” doesn’t sound very appealing or promising, coming from her. Especially since, from her very long speech, she clearly links internet “freedom” with advancing the Administration’s agenda.
Open thread? I offer the following diversion:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100305/ap_on_re_as/as_indonesia_obama
Craig Moore (07:17:50) :
“…..Zinc tabs too under the tongue.”
The Zinc tabs (Zicam) work very well. I usually get bronchitis or Pneumonia every winter but have not had a bad cold/flu since I started the ZiCam five years ago.
Hot toddies are great too. A study by one of the Universities in the seventies indicated Alcohol in the blood stream will kill the cold or flue virus if used within 24 hrs of exposure to the virus. (A friend was part of the study group.)
Have a well deserved break Anthony.
rbateman (07:30:41) : “Daylight Saving Time. Dinosaur from the days of the turn of the 20th Century. Watch as accidents and other phenomena increase for the next 2 weeks following the change as biological rythms are thown for a loop.”
yes, daylight savings time is just, as you are saying in your country, rubbing peter to pay paul.
RockyRoad (08:10:15) : “Sometimes a good laugh helps. This is my favorite picture of Gore: http://www.weeklystandard.com/ Get better soon, Mr. Watts!”
i’m sort of sorry i am looking, rockman
AJStrata (07:24:23) :
“For some reason Freakzoid complaining of ‘poo gas’ just keeps echoing in my mind…..”
I am still chuckling, I love the cover art. Thanks for the pointer to that article.
If methane is such a problem, why don’t we fill in the swamps and wetlands, recover the usable crop land, get rid of the mosquito breeding grounds, and the beaver/giardia drinking water contamination problem.
http://www.uga.edu/scwds/topic_index/1998/GiardiaandWildlife.pdf
For a cold, I usually use lots of Puffs, some Robitussin, some Vix Vapor Rub, and a shot of NyQuil before bed.
My spouse says jala neti, (saline irrigation of the sinuses) is good. My mother swears by apricot juice. I cannot endorse either from personal experience due to the thought of either making me feel sick even when I don’t have a virus.
Having led a pure and blameless life, I am justified in believing that no man who knows me will reject the suggestions I am about to make, out of fear that I am trying to deceive him. Let the public do itself the honor to read my experience in doctoring a cold, as herein set forth, and then follow in my footsteps.
The first time I began to sneeze, a friend told me to go and bathe my feet in hot water and go to bed. I did so. Shortly afterward, another friend advised me to get up and take a cold shower-bath. I did that also. Within the hour, another friend assured me that it was policy to “feed a cold and starve a fever.” I had both. So I thought it best to fill myself up for the cold, and then keep dark and let the fever starve awhile.
In a case of, this kind, I seldom do things by halves; I ate pretty heartily; I conferred my custom upon a stranger who had just opened his restaurant that morning; he waited near me in respectful silence until I had finished feeding my cold, when he inquired if the people about Virginia City were much afflicted with colds? I told him I thought they were. He then went out and took in his sign.
I started down toward the office, and on the way encountered another bosom friend, who told me that a quart of salt-water, taken warm, would come as near curing a cold as anything in the world. I hardly thought I had room for it, but I tried it anyhow. The result was surprising. I believed I had thrown up my immortal soul.
Now, as I am giving my experience only for the benefit of those who are troubled with the distemper I am writing about, I feel that they will see the propriety of my cautioning them against following such portions of it as proved inefficient with me, and acting upon this conviction, I warn them against warm salt-water. It may be a good enough remedy, but I think it is too severe. If I had another cold in the head, and there were no course left me but to take either an earthquake or a quart of warm saltwater, I would take my chances on the earthquake.
After the storm which had been raging in my stomach had subsided, and no more good Samaritans happening along, I went on borrowing handkerchiefs again and blowing them to atoms, as had been my custom in the early stages of my cold, until I came across a lady who had just arrived from over the plains, and who said she had lived in a part of the country where doctors were scarce, and had from necessity acquired considerable skill in the treatment of simple “family complaints.” I knew she must have had much experience, for she appeared to be a hundred and fifty years old.
She mixed a decoction composed of molasses, aquafortis, turpentine, and various other drugs, and instructed me to take a wine-glass full of it every fifteen minutes. I never took but one dose; that was enough; it robbed me of all moral principle, and awoke every unworthy impulse of my nature. Under its malign influence my brain conceived miracles of meanness, but my hands were too feeble to execute them; at that time, had it not been that my strength had surrendered to a succession of assaults from infallible remedies for my cold, I am satisfied that I would have tried to rob the graveyard. Like most other people, I often feel mean, and act accordingly; but until I took that medicine I had never reveled in such supernatural depravity, and felt proud of it. At the end of two days I was ready to go to doctoring again. I took a few more unfailing remedies, and finally drove my cold from my head to my lungs.
I got to coughing incessantly, and my voice fell below zero; I conversed in a thundering bass, two octaves below my natural tone; I could only compass my regular nightly repose by coughing myself down to a state of utter exhaustion, and then the moment I began to talk in my sleep, my discordant voice woke me up again.
My case grew more and more serious every day. A Plain gin was recommended; I took it. Then gin and molasses; I took that also. Then gin and onions; I added the onions, and took all three. I detected no particular result, however, except that I had acquired a breath like a buzzard’s.
I found I had to travel for my health. I went to Lake Bigler with my reportorial comrade, Wilson. It is gratifying to me to reflect that we traveled in considerable style; we went in the Pioneer coach, and my friend took all his baggage with him, consisting of two excellent silk handkerchiefs and a daguerreotype of his grandmother. We sailed and hunted and fished and danced all day, and I doctored my cough all night. By managing in this way, I made out to improve every hour in the twenty- four. But my disease continued to grow worse.
A sheet-bath was recommended. I had never refused a remedy yet, and it seemed poor policy to commence then; therefore I determined to take a sheet-bath, notwithstanding I had no idea what sort of arrangement it was. It was administered at midnight, and the weather was very frosty. My breast and back were bared, and a sheet (there appeared to be a thousand yards of it) soaked in ice-water, was wound around me until I resembled a swab for a Columbiad.
It is a cruel expedient. When the chilly rag touches one’s warm flesh, it makes him start with sudden violence, and gasp for breath just as men do in the death-agony. It froze the marrow in my bones and stopped the beating of my heart. I thought my time had come.
Never take a sheet-bath-never. Next to meeting a lady acquaintance who, for reasons best known to herself, don’t see you when she looks at you, and don’t know you when she does see you, it is the most uncomfortable thing in the world.
But, as I was saying, when the sheet-bath failed to cure my cough, a lady friend recommended the application of a mustard plaster to my breast. I believe that would have cured me effectually, if it had not been for young Wilson. When I went to bed, I put my mustard plaster– which was a very gorgeous one, eighteen inches square–where I could reach it when I was ready for it. But young Wilson got hungry in the night, and here is food for the imagination.
After sojourning a week at Lake Bigler, I went to Steamboat Springs, and, besides the steam-baths, I took a lot of the vilest medicines that were ever concocted. They would have cured me, but I had to go back to Virginia City, where, notwithstanding the variety of new remedies I absorbed every day, I managed to aggravate my disease by carelessness and undue exposure.
I finally concluded to visit San Francisco, and the, first day I got there a lady at the hotel told me to drink a quart of whisky every twenty-four hours, and a friend up-town recommended precisely the same course. Each advised me to take a quart; that made half a gallon. I did it, and still live.
Now, with the kindest motives in the world, I offer for the consideration of consumptive patients the variegated course of treatment I have lately gone through. Let them try it; if it don’t cure, it can’t more than kill them.
-THE END-
Clemens] Mark Twain’s short story: Curing A Cold (being slightly abridged)
Sean Peake (13:38:54) :
“In an email from James Hansen he told me that your cold will only get worse. You will develop a fever that will increase at a rapidly increasing rate as the days go on and will be the highest ever recorded. About 40% of your hair will fall out and your toenails will recede and likely be gone by mid week. Your saliva will become increasingly acidic and you’ll start emitting large amounts of methane (better open a window). He mentioned that the only cure a particular remedy he knows of but it will cost around $4 billion just to find out about it.”
Tipping points… you forgot the tipping points!
Anthony,
IMO – humble (Ha!) though that may be, the paper takes precidence over about anything. This blog is fun to visit – and express opinion on – but the truely “”””scientific”””” work being done by those who legitimately ask “Why?” is far more important in the long run. I’m using the broad definition of science here since much work in disciplines removed from chemistry, physics and geology as examples is important to press the case against CO2 driven AGW.
Here we can squabble with one another, and some damn fine squabbling we do, but not over grammer folks – or where Scotland is…Sorry pipers, next stall over please. I have a map on the wall to check that – since I can’t place every country (or even state for that matter) with any accuracy.
Where else can you rub digital shoulders with the likes of the Pielke family, Grey, Lief, Pamela, etc and more… People who are true explorers of this wonderful planet. Yeah!
By the way, how interesting is it that the Chiliean quake sped up the earth a microsecond a day, and now the Pacific Rim of Fire is shaking, rattling and rolling????
Rest and get better, I like the booze cure….
Mike Bentley
Oh damn!
I misspelled Leif…he’s going to shoot me…
Mike
John Good (11:49:05) :
O.T on an open thread? I’ll have what you are smoking/drinking/huffing/etc….
In reply to Rod at 02:41,
who asks about economic studies of the costs of AGW , and in paricular Stern,
Have a look at World Economics , a quarterly journal published in association with the Oxford Institute for Economic Policy.
URL is http://www.world-economics-journal.com ,but I don’t know if the relevant papers are online.
You may have to go to the hard copy, but it is worth it :Its a very entertaining read if you enjoy economics with added invective.
There was a very high level stand-up, spit in the eye , hair-pulling fight over Stern’s economic competence spread over a year or more , but I don’t recall anything in the last year or so and the last issue I have is for October -Dec 2009 , so there would be nothing to reflect any of the “Gates” we have since seen.
This was the series of articles that caused me to become a serious doubter of AGW , a topic in which I had had no previous interest.
Enjoy!
Anthony- Get well soon, and like all the other ” WUWTsters “, thanks to you and the others for all you do. It’s really appreciated. I am looking forward to my next cold, so I can start drinking all these great remedies!
Jimmy Haigh (05:53:22)-I had no idea they were now drilling for rice. Here in Northern California we are still growing it above ground.
I’m thinking of penning a concept album based on Michael Crichton’s novel title “State of Fear”. Any lyricists out there that want to contribute some verse regarding education, government, media, religion that points out how creating a state of fear is a prime way to gaining a state of control? Kind of like The Wall but in a different direction.
Oil of Oregano.
Garlic – actual, pickled or tablets
The hot chocolate with a nut liqueur mentioned earlier also sounds good.
I blame your cold on those dam LED lights you fitted 😉
Looking forward to your return Anthony.
Can someone please tell me what Warmists have said that would falsify AGW?
References please, if possible.
Tom Stark (13:36:12) :
“the whole anthropogenic global warming (AGW) position can be easily defused without any reference to science at all, because the error, at root, is epistemological.”
Check out this philosophy:
http://rayharvey.org/index.php/2010/01/global-warming/
The most brain dead logic I’ve read on this subject from either camp. Sounds like the weed talking.
Speaking of UN handling of billions of dollars, and the effectiveness of its response to natural disasters: how long until an early warning system for tsunamis was operating in Indian Ocean countries?:
“On 26 December 2004, the earthquake, which struck off the northwest coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra, generated a tsunami that wreaked havoc along much of the rim of the Indian Ocean. Particularly hard-hit were the countries of India, Indonesia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. Nearly 230,000 people were killed, tens of thousands more were injured, and 10 million became homeless and displaced.
Governments, humanitarian organizations, Asian expatriates and individuals around the world scrambled to offer aid and technical support. The World Bank initially estimated the amount of aid needed at USD 5 billion.[3] Although countries are providing relief funds, the UN had criticised both the US and Europe for allocating inadequate resources. By 1 January 2005 over USD1.8 bn (GBP1bn) had been pledged.
In wake of the disaster, Australia, India, Japan, United States formed a coalition led by Pakistan to co-ordinate aid efforts to streamline immediate assistance. However, at the Jakarta Summit on 6 January, the coalition transferred responsibilities to the United Nations.”
Total cash commitments from various governments and nongovernmental organisations: >USD 10bn
(cont’d)
Indian Ocean tsunami warning system
23 December 2005
When the Indian Ocean tsunami struck, the only warning most people in the region had was the sight of a giant wave heading towards them.
Unlike the Pacific, the Indian Ocean did not have a system to alert residents of coastal areas that a tsunami was imminent.
In the aftermath of the disaster, scientists and governments, under the auspices of the UN, began working on an early warning system for the region.
Tsunami early warning ‘next year’
12 January, 2005
A tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean could be up and running by the middle of next year, Unesco head Koichiro Matsuura has said.
The head of the UN’s cultural and scientific agency said a $30m system could be in place by June 2006, with a global one to follow a year later.
Planned Indian Ocean Tsunami Alarm System Treading Water
Monday, July 31, 2006
On Monday, more than 150 regional officials, aid workers and donors gather on Indonesia’s resort island of Bali to discuss the $126 million Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning and Mitigation System.
They hope to come away from the U.N. meeting with a timeline for implementing the network — at least two years away — and detailed plans from the 27 affected countries for disseminating alerts and evacuating the public.
New Approach In Tsunami-Early Warning System
ScienceDaily (Nov. 11, 2008) — The newly implemented Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean, GITEWS, goes into operation today and with this, the system enters its final phase of optimisation. As foreseen, the system was officially handed over to the BMKG (Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysical Agency of Indonesia) by the President of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, in the Indonesian capital Jakarta, slightly less than four years after the catastrophe of 2004.
Tsunami Alert System Starts Up in Indonesia
Four years after the mother of all monster waves struck, Indian Ocean countries will know of a possible tsunami just 3 minutes after an earthquake.
If the Moderators will permit, I’d like to alert everyone to a new on-line store offering goodies for Climate Realists:
http://www.zazzle.com/climaterealist
They have three image-themes, which are imprinted on shirts, hats, bumper stickers, mugs, buttons, and paper stickers:
• A colorful logo image of Sun and Earth with the words “CLIMATE REALIST.” Makes a great hat!
• A red-hot Earth surrounded by the legend, “COOKING THE BOOKS, NOT THE PLANET,” and printed on the Earth, “TURN UP THE HEAT ON CLIMATE ALARMISTS.”
• Two silhouettes of feet, one labeled “Bigfoot Track,” the other “Carbon Footprint,” and the question, “WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE?”
This is not my store, and I have no financial connection to it. But if you’re confident enough to announce your disdain of the Alarmists to the world, these products are a really cool way to do it. Take a look!
/Mr Lynn
Laughter, as always, is the best medicine. Get well soon, Anthony and Mrs. Anthony.
WARNING: Video contains bango-playing and Vikings.
Don’t make me come back here.
– Anthony
LMAO!!!!!!!
we can say almost any thing now lol
i___ s__ …. there i said it!
[And I fixed it. neener. ~dbs, mod.]
[And I fixed it. neener. ~dbs, mod.
rotfl
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groovology
Whiskey, honey, lemon, chicken soup and wife over a weekend sound like a perfect cure.
Here’s some reading for you Anthony. Curl up in bed with a lap top and enjoy Richard Feynman.
CARGO CULT SCIENCE by Richard Feynman
http://pathstoknowledge.net/2010/02/19/cargo-cult-science-a-lesson-from-richard-feynman-for-scientists-of-today-to-learn
“During the Middle Ages there were all kinds of crazy ideas, such as that a piece of rhinoceros horn would increase potency. Then a method was discovered for separating the ideas–which was to try one to see if it worked, and if it didn’t work, to eliminate it. This method became organized, of course, into science. And it developed very well, so that we are now in the scientific age. It is such a scientific age, in fact that we have difficulty in understanding how witch doctors could ever have existed, when nothing that they proposed ever really worked–or very little of it did.
But even today I meet lots of people who sooner or later get me into a conversation about UFOS, or astrology, or some form of mysticism, expanded consciousness, new types of awareness, ESP, and so forth. And I’ve concluded that it’s not a scientific world.
Most people believe so many wonderful things that I decided to investigate why they did. And what has been referred to as my curiosity for investigation has landed me in a difficulty where I found so much junk that I’m overwhelmed. First I started out by investigating various ideas of mysticism, and mystic experiences. I went into isolation tanks and got many hours of hallucinations, so I know something about that. Then I went to Esalen, which is a hotbed of this kind of thought (it’s a wonderful place; you should go visit there). Then I became overwhelmed. I didn’t realize how much there was.
At Esalen there are some large baths fed by hot springs situated on a ledge about thirty feet above the ocean. One of my most pleasurable experiences has been to sit in one of those baths and watch the waves crashing onto the rocky shore below, to gaze into the clear blue sky above, and to study a beautiful nude as she quietly appears and settles into the bath with me.
One time I sat down in a bath where there was a beautiful girl sitting with a guy who didn’t seem to know her. Right away I began thinking, “Gee! How am I gonna get started talking to this beautiful nude babe?”
I’m trying to figure out what to say, when the guy says to her, I’m, uh, studying massage. Could I practice on you?”
“Sure,” she says. They get out of the bath and she lies down on a massage table nearby.
I think to myself, “What a nifty line! I can never think of anything like that!” He starts to rub her big toe. “I think I feel it, “he says. “I feel a kind of dent–is that the pituitary?”
I blurt out, “You’re a helluva long way from the pituitary, man!”
They looked at me, horrified–I had blown my cover–and said, “It’s reflexology!”
I quickly closed my eyes and appeared to be meditating.
That’s just an example of the kind of things that overwhelm me. I also looked into extrasensory perception and PSI phenomena, and the latest craze there was Uri Geller, a man who is supposed to be able to bend keys by rubbing them with his finger. So I went to his hotel room, on his invitation, to see a demonstration of both mindreading and bending keys. He didn’t do any mindreading that succeeded; nobody can read my mind, I guess. And my boy held a key and Geller rubbed it, and nothing happened. Then he told us it works better under water, and so you can picture all of us standing in the bathroom with the water turned on and the key under it, and him rubbing the key with his finger. Nothing happened. So I was unable to investigate that phenomenon.
But then I began to think, what else is there that we believe? (And I thought then about the witch doctors, and how easy it would have been to cheek on them by noticing that nothing really worked.) So I found things that even more people believe, such as that we have some knowledge of how to educate. There are big schools of reading methods and mathematics methods, and so forth, but if you notice, you’ll see the reading scores keep going down–or hardly going up in spite of the fact that we continually use these same people to improve the methods. There’s a witch doctor remedy that doesn’t work. It ought to be looked into; how do they know that their method should work? Another example is how to treat criminals. We obviously have made no progress–lots of theory, but no progress– in decreasing the amount of crime by the method that we use to handle criminals.
Yet these things are said to be scientific. We study them. And I think ordinary people with commonsense ideas are intimidated by this pseudoscience. A teacher who has some good idea of how to teach her children to read is forced by the school system to do it some other way–or is even fooled by the school system into thinking that her method is not necessarily a good one. Or a parent of bad boys, after disciplining them in one way or another, feels guilty for the rest of her life because she didn’t do “the right thing,” according to the experts.
So we really ought to look into theories that don’t work, and science that isn’t science.
…
…
…
It is interesting, therefore, to bring it out now and speak of it explicitly. It’s a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty–a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you’re doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid–not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you’ve eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked–to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated.
Details that could throw doubt on your interpretation must be given, if you know them. You must do the best you can–if you know anything at all wrong, or possibly wrong–to explain it. If you make a theory, for example, and advertise it, or put it out, then you must also put down all the facts that disagree with it, as well as those that agree with it. There is also a more subtle problem. When you have put a lot of ideas together to make an elaborate theory, you want to make sure, when explaining what it fits, that those things it fits are not just the things that gave you the idea for the theory; but that the finished theory makes something else come out right, in addition.
In summary, the idea is to try to give all of the information to help others to judge the value of your contribution; not just the information that leads to judgment in one particular direction or another.
…
…
…
We’ve learned from experience that the truth will come out. Other experimenters will repeat your experiment and find out whether you were wrong or right. Nature’s phenomena will agree or they’ll disagree with your theory. And, although you may gain some temporary fame and excitement, you will not gain a good reputation as a scientist if you haven’t tried to be very careful in this kind of work. And it’s this type of integrity, this kind of care not to fool yourself, that is missing to a large extent in much of the research in cargo cult science.
…
…
…
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself–and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you’ve not fooled yourself, it’s easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that.
I would like to add something that’s not essential to the science, but something I kind of believe, which is that you should not fool the layman when you’re talking as a scientist. I am not trying to tell you what to do about cheating on your wife, or fooling your girlfriend, or something like that, when you’re not trying to be a scientist, but just trying to be an ordinary human being. We’ll leave those problems up to you and your rabbi. I’m talking about a specific, extra type of integrity that is not lying, but bending over backwards to show how you are maybe wrong, that you ought to have when acting as a scientist. And this is our responsibility as scientists, certainly to other scientists, and I think to laymen.
For example, I was a little surprised when I was talking to a friend who was going to go on the radio. He does work on cosmology and astronomy, and he wondered how he would explain what the applications of this work were. “Well,” I said, “there aren’t any.” He said, “Yes, but then we won’t get support for more research of this kind.” I think that’s kind of dishonest. If you’re representing yourself as a scientist, then you should explain to the layman what you’re doing–and if they don’t want to support you under those circumstances, then that’s their decision.
One example of the principle is this: If you’ve made up your mind to test a theory, or you want to explain some idea, you should always decide to publish it whichever way it comes out. If we only publish results of a certain kind, we can make the argument look good. We must publish both kinds of results.
I say that’s also important in giving certain types of government advice. Supposing a senator asked you for advice about whether drilling a hole should be done in his state; and you decide it would be better in some other state. If you don’t publish such a result, it seems to me you’re not giving scientific advice. You’re being used. If your answer happens to come out in the direction the government or the politicians like, they can use it as an argument in their favor; if it comes out the other way, they don’t publish it at all. That’s not giving scientific advice.
…
…
…
So I have just one wish for you–the good luck to be somewhere where you are free to maintain the kind of integrity I have described, and where you do not feel forced by a need to maintain your position in the organization, or financial support, or so on, to lose your integrity. May you have that freedom.”
Read the full article by Richard Feynman here: http://pathstoknowledge.net/2010/02/19/cargo-cult-science-a-lesson-from-richard-feynman-for-scientists-of-today-to-learn. Also see the video interviews of this amazing scientist.
Of course where the alleged AGW hypothesis and it’s advocates fail is in NOT providing all of the information. The AGW advocates fail to state where their ideas fall short of the objective reality of Nature. They also fail to provide balanced views to government.
pwl
http://PathsToKnowledge.net
Hay something …. no watts effect, the sun maybe having it’s first spotless day from 45days ago!1!!
Another loss due to climate change, the drought extinguishes Venezuela’s lightning phoenomena: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/mar/05/venezuela-lightning-el-nino
“It has always been with us,” said Edin Hernandez, 62. “It guides us at night, like a lighthouse. We miss it.”
Luke Skywarmer (17:20:52) :
Don’t make me come back here.
– Anthony
LMAO!!!!!!!
we can say almost any thing now lol
i___ s__ …. there i said it!
[And I fixed it. neener. ~dbs, mod.]
Oh, I’m sure Maledicta could figure it out.
Philemon (14:21:34) :
For a cold, I usually use lots of Puffs, some Robitussin, some Vix Vapor Rub, and a shot of NyQuil before bed.
My spouse says jala neti, (saline irrigation of the sinuses) is good. My mother swears by apricot juice. I cannot endorse either from personal experience due to the thought of either making me feel sick even when I don’t have a virus.
I’ve had an accidental saline irrigation of the sinuses (swimming in the sea). In a word: Don’t.
It stings like a
Hope our host gets better soon.
The Ap is back up to the bottom!!!
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Ap.gif
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/07/suns-magnetic-index-reaches-unprecedent-low-only-zero-could-be-lower-in-a-month-when-sunspots-became-more-active/
Philemon (17:50:11) :
Luke Skywarmer (17:20:52) :
Don’t make me come back here.
– Anthony
LMAO!!!!!!!
we can say almost any thing now lol
i___ s__ …. there i said it!
[And I fixed it. neener. ~dbs, mod.]
Oh, I’m sure Maledicta could figure it out.
Likely not, but I’m sure it pleased Oliver.
/dr.bill
To get to the Tips section, look toward the end of the sidebar for the heading “Pages” and click on the entry for Tips & Notes.
[Note: on some computers the headings do not all appear unless the screen size is expanded. ~dbs, mod.]
Nasal Lavage is a soothing washing-out of the sinuses, and actually feels very good. However, you must use an isotonic solution of salt, one which is very close to the natural fluids of the body (such as tears). The formula is one cup of warm water, 1/4 tsp salt, and 1/4 tsp baking soda (though it is not absolutely necessary to use the baking soda). You can also use this formula when you want to rinse out your eyes, and it will not hurt or sting (unless there is some pre-existing sore). The solution can be delivered a number of ways, as long as excessive force is not employed. A bulb syringe, such as is used in cleaning out a baby’s nose, or a water-pik with a special adapter, or a neti-pot (which looks a lot like a teapot).
My husband made gentle fun of me for doing nasal lavage, until he had a small growth in his sinuses which needed to be excised surgically. The surgeon recommended nasal lavage afterward. My husband found that it is also very nice for times when he works around a lot of particulates, or when there is a heavy pollen count. He uses an old syringe, without the needle.
Luke Skywarmer (18:13:10) :
The Ap is back up to the bottom!!!
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Ap.gif
Luke, the SWPC still does not plot/calculate things correctly. Ap is up [of course – as it should be], but for February 2010, the monthly mean was 4.7 and not 4 [as the SWPC graph shows]. The error SWPC commits is to always TRUNCATE values, so 4.99 [and 4.7] will be shown as 4.0. This doesn’t matter much when Ap is 15 or 20, but does matter when Ap is low [as now].
since this is an open thread: How do some of the posters do bold, underline, italics etc.? I don’t see any instructions on how to do it anywhere.
[Reply: the internet is loaded with HTML tutorials. Do a search & find one you like. In the mean time, this should get you started: Bold = <b>bold</b>
Italic = <i>italic</i>. Put the brackets as shown around the word(s) you want to be bold or in italics. Practice on a month old thread until you’ve got it.~dbs, mod.]
I’ve read that a scientific study found to kill a virus in the early stage a hot bath followed by heavy-blanket bed rest works.
Leif Svalgaard (19:09:55) :
Luke Skywarmer (18:13:10) :
The Ap is back up to the bottom!!!
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Ap.gif
Luke, the SWPC still does not plot/calculate things correctly.
I should note that this is the case with preliminary values only [that they calculate themselves]. Once definitive values are available from Potsdam, then SWPC backfills with the correct values [finally, after I have harassed them about this for months 🙂 }
Take a week off. Tend to wife. Tend to paper. Tend to business. Come back rested.
And to the chicken soup I would add some ground white pepper–try it a little at a time, some people really don’t like it.
I find it does wonders for a clogged head, but it is, to be crude, kinda like a laxitive for your head.
But you want to drink it, pepper or no, out of a big mug.
I also agree on the nose flushing. We use a product from…..dang, i FORGOT.
Here it is: http://www.neilmed.com/usa/index.php somebody menttioned the neti pot–we like the plastic squeeze bottle. If you do it right, it iws kinda gross, but it really does work.
But the chicken soup tastes better.
Anthony, S – L – E – E – P.
Anthony,
Good health to you. Hope things improve in the next few days. Thank goodness you weren’t incapacitated last November and December. Your devastating articles simply broke the back of the climate fraudsters at the most critical time, just before and during Copehagen. You deserve a rest.
Just a thought to mull over while you are recovering. Why has there been nothing revealed in the investigation of the Climategate leaks? You would think by now there would be something to report. Almost certainly it was done by someone who worked in IT at CRU, and that limits it to just several dozen employees. Could it be he is cooperating with the authorities and opening more doors?
Effects of sunspots on the Earth:
http://www.popsci.com/archive-viewer?id=miwDAAAAMBAJ&pg=366&query=sunspot
from a 1878 perspective.
~dbs, mod.]
You are da man. I wish that I could meet people like you in my every day life.
Steve in SC (08:04:56) wrote :
Anthony,
Chicken soup! All those Jewish mothers are right!
1 chicken (5-7 lbs)
12-15 cups water
10 cloves garlic minced.
Skin the chicken
===
Skin the chicken?! What a travesty!
Anthony, I sincerely wish you and your wife a very speedy recovery. But you must REJECT such a “post-normal” recipe!
As the daughter of a Jewish mother, I offer the following traditional recipe:
In a very large pot place:
1 Chicken (the largest available), washed, but definitely NOT skinned, along with its neck and other giblets [Note: you could remove some of the surface fat if desired … when rendered, it’s a crucial ingredient of chopped liver; although it has yet to be demonstrated whether chopped liver has either a positive or negative forcing feedback on the common cold]
2 peeled carrots
2 medium-to-large onions (peeled)
3 or more whole garlic cloves (peeled but not minced)
1 thorougly washed white part of leek (optional)
Add cold water to cover (do not place lid on pot yet), and bring to boil.
Skim off “scum” that rises to top … keep boiling and skimming “scum”. When no more “scum” can be skimmed, add:
12 or more (unground!) black peppercorns
1 tblspoon salt (preferably “kosher” or sea salt) … more can be added later, to taste
Cover pot and reduce heat to simmer (cauldron should bubble, but cause no trouble)
After 1.5 hours, taste … add more salt if desired/required
Keep simmering (and tasting occasionally) for about another 1/2 hour
Remove chicken, neck, giblets, veggies, garlic and peppercorns. Cover, let cool, then place in fridge overnight. The next day …
Carefully remove fat that has solidified on surface. [Either discard, or use for creation of matzoh balls … failproof recipe available on request!]
Gently reheat soup [you may, if you choose, add some of the chicken – with or without skin] and enjoy!
Anthony et al,
Various popular treatments for cold symptoms:
1. Russian – take a hammer (any type or size will do) and bang a big toe with it. You immediately will no longer notice your cold symptoms. Supplement with large quantities of vodka. Repeat as necessary on other toes or body parts. Optionally, don’t do the hammer thing, just the vodka thing.
2. Zen – meditate and become one with nothingness, in nothing there is no suffering of this mortal body
3. German (traditional Prussian) – do nothing, what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger. If you are bored, go out and duel someone.
4. American – turn on Delilah or Oprah shows. The pitiable tearjerker stories you hear will make you feel happy that you only have a cold. Supplement with reruns of the Bullwinkle the Moose & Rocky the Flying Squirrel shows.
5. Saudi Arabian – unannounced, double the price of oil. Watching the dependent western nations squirm always make you feel better.
6. CAGWers – cold? There is no cold . . . just warm. Immediately go to RC for purchase of Dr Schmidt’s fast acting ‘nasal’ relief and for a limited time only get a free hockey stick.
7. ??
8. ??
etc, etc, etc
John
get some real vitamin C, no substitute or synthetic
http://www.qncstore.com/CGI-BIN/LANSAWEB?WEBEVENT+L22328446926381005E8403H+M37+ENG
Sharon (17:04:20) :
Ok, it’s got Vikings, but does it have Brett Favre! ONE MORE YEAR!!
Steve Goddard (06:00:54) :
Moderator: DMI Arctic ice extent is at it’s highest level on record.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Where is that disappearing in 5 years, in a ‘death spiral’, Arctic ice?
Arctic ice is very active this month:
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
aMINO aCIDS iN mETEORITES (20:44:52) :
get some real vitamin C, no substitute or synthetic
………………………………………………………………………..
link not work,
click around to find catalog for real vitamin C
http://healthline.cc/
For what it is worth, for many years, I fight off colds by vitamin C. 1000mg late release or chewable. If a bad cold up to 7 a day. Still alive and turning 70 next month.
gtrip (15:46:11) :
The Wall but in a different direction.
Make that Supper’s Ready.
Anthony,
Rx: 8oz. glass, 2oz. Kahlua, 4oz. milk. PRN
Doesn’t help the cold one d*mn bit, but it sure tastes good.
Enjoy the rest and get well soon.
http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/03/tamino_calls_out_anthony_watts.php
Dang. Meant to provide the direct link:
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2010/03/05/message-to-anthony-watts/
Interested to hear thoughts about this.
!!! An Open Thread Day !!! – HERE WE GO.
On the Origin [Birth] of Science – Western science did not spring fully formed from the forehead of scientists. ( for this allusion I give my apologies to you serious students of ancient Greece )
If it was not born from the minds of scientists, then where did the tradition science in western civilization come from?
Does it even matter whether we, in the early part of the 21st century, understand what had to necessarily occur in Western civilization before our current tradition of science could be born or develop?
My short answer is, it important to understand only if you want to keep the inherited tradition of science alive.
You might doubt that there are any serious numbers of mainstream highly educated people in modern western civilization who would purposely advocate to distrupt or kill science. I unfortunately need to say there are.
This is the only fundamental crisis of our age.
Any takers?
NOTE: I will be online and offline randomly quite a bit in next day, but I can not pass up an open thread day.
John
Large band of clouds currently heading for Europe. This moisture is coming right from the record warm area of the Carribean near Puerto Rico. Europe could be in for some very rough weather in the next few days. Best way to see this moisture, and where it is streaming from, is to go to Google Earth and turn on weather, park yourself out over the N. Atlantic at about 5000 mi. eye altitude and enjoy the view!
Tamino is really calling Anthony out on his blog. Is Anthony going to address this?
Reply: Anthony is taking the weekend off. ~ ctm
R. Gates (22:38:29) :
Large band of clouds currently heading for Europe. This moisture is coming right from the record warm area of the Carribean near Puerto Rico. Europe could be in for some very rough weather in the next few days.
It’s forecast to hit Spain.
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=natla_250
City chaos as hailstones, rain pummel Melbourne
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/city-chaos-as-hailstones-rain-pummel-melbourne-20100306-pptd.html
Hailstones the size of grapefruit pummel Melbourne – 7 Mar 10 – (Excerpts) Bloodied festival-goers, spooked racehorses, smashed windows and torrential rain inside major buildings were just some of the surreal scenes unfolding across Melbourne in one of the most intense storms in years.
The Bureau of Meteorology reported severe wind gusts and hailstones up to 10cm wide (the size of a grapefruit).
“I DON’T usually scream during storms – yesterday was different.
What else is there to do when being battered from on high by chunks of ice and unable to move in any direction?”
Here’s an interesting post on the peer review process:
http://www.spiked-online.com/index.php/site/article/8227/
h/t : http://klimazwiebel.blogspot.com/2010/03/frank-furedi-turning-peer-review-into.html
I wouldn’t even respond to Tamino. We’ve seen the mountains of fraud they’ve put out under the “peer-review” process. We’ve seen the IPCC report. We’ve seen their phoney alarmist claims, we’ve seen the Climategate e-mails. We’ve seen the hockey sticks. We’ve also seen the winter we have had in North America and in Europe.
We all know what these fraudsters are all about.
R. Gates (22:38:29) :
“….is to go to Google Earth and turn on weather, park yourself out over the N. Atlantic at about 5000 mi. eye altitude and enjoy the view!…”
Is Google operating in real-time now? That would be a sensation!
If the 20th century was dominated by anthropogenic climate changes, why hasn’t the Köppen Climate Classification Map changed in any significant way?
Anthony,
I hope you and your wife are feeling better. As you know, I have no love for you and nor you for I but I would never wish sickness on anybody. Having said that, you could really shore up your name with “the other side” if you addressed Tamino’s (and many others) proof that you and D’Aleo were way off-base with your latest SPPI publication. It is OK to admit you are wrong – I have done it here a few times.
Scott A. Mandia, Meteorologist & Concerned Citizen
Re: Bernard J. (Mar 6 22:07),
I went to the link you provided. I am sorry, but there are no links to the supposedly devastating confirmations of “Tamino” claims.
I do not ask for peer review, but I do need a link to a paper claiming to do this that and the other and the confirmations confirmations, in such a polemic piece.
I cannot take him seriously but as a way to increase the hits on his blog.
This just in –
“Researchers at Iowa State University have concluded that global climate change will make potholes on Iowa’s roads even worse.”
Details here:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100307/DMWEATHER/3070344/1007/news05/Think-potholes-are-bad-now?-Just-wait-a-bit
Is there no end to this madness?
So the change in the number of stations in the GHCN does not cause a warming trend after all. It seems that allegation implied by the Watts/D’Aleo/Smith claim below does not hold water:
When we will we see the correction?
[Reply: you haven’t even seen the paper. ~dbs, mod.]
anna v (04:46:27),
I agree with your assessment as usual. Tamino/Foster is a little chihuahua nipping at the heels of the big dog. He is consumed with hatred and envy, and expresses it with invective toward Anthony at every opportunity.
Actually, it’s fun watching his impotent yapping, as the big dog ignores the little squirt.
hro001 (20:33:45) :
Skin the chicken?! What a travesty!
Anthony, I sincerely wish you and your wife a very speedy recovery. But you must REJECT such a “post-normal” recipe!
=====
Skim off “scum” that rises to top … keep boiling and skimming “scum”. When no more “scum” can be skimmed, add:
=====
Carefully remove fat that has solidified on surface. [Either discard, or use for creation of matzoh balls … failproof recipe available on request!]
Now Now hro, Bless your heart. No need to get insulting. (post normal thing) Sorry if I offended you as I was in no way trying to pass off the low country chicken bog as Jewish. The reason for the skinning part is to eliminate the skimming step and the removal of fat step. Whatever makes it into the pot gets eaten. The other reason to skin the chicken is that the removal of pinfeathers is a real pain so I just skin em. The chicken liver is usually reserved for dirty rice but it doesn’t hurt the soup. Our tastes are decidedly more herby than your traditional Jewish recipe. Fresh herbs do make a difference! Note that I did say that the Jewish mothers were right.
Smokey, Roman M at the Blackboard has a critique of Tamino in the Spherical Cow thread, but Cheifio’s work is under stress.
====================
The London Sunday Telegraph reports on the funding carousel for green lobbyists. The EU handed out £3 millon in grants to six groups including Friends of The Earth and WWF. These groups then spent £2.7 million on lobbying the same EU in an attempt to influence policy decisions. The poor taxpayer is paying for this carousel! Still I suppose its better than all those skeptics who are apparently being paid by rhe oil and fossil fuel interests.
No wonder Anthony needs a weekend off.
aMINO aCIDS iN mETEORITES (20:47:47) :
Sharon (17:04:20) :
Ok, it’s got Vikings, but does it have Brett Favre! ONE MORE YEAR!!
******************************************************
Right, but M4GW also created an homage to those Vikings. It’s on their YouTube account
here.
WARNING: More banjo, plus yodeling!
Since this is an open thread, here’s an article on dark matter evidence: click
NASA gives up on false color images, finally publishes true color images of Earth (;-)):
(Modis pictures)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/8547114.stm
http://www.flickr.com/photos/gsfc/4392965590
@ John Whitman (22:27:50)
“This is the only fundamental crisis of our age.”
I think it is wider than just science. IMO it is “peak truth” (!) as we see democratic scrutiny being undermined in theatres such as the Chilcot Inquiry. Perhaps it has always been this way and it is the AGW issue which has really woken me up to it but I tend to think the influence of a vast, uncritical and partisan MSM media means we are in an age where we will only play catch up for the truth. In this respect I actually think science is at an advantage as, despite the protestations of Post Normalism, objective scientific truth can till be tested and verfied.
RE Mod:
Oh, was this quote not in the paper? I also saw this statement:
Since the SPPI “paper” really isn’t peer reviewed, you folks can just reply to the analysis. Tamino’s results been confirmed by others so there is certainly enough for someone to go on.
The implication was that the dropping stations was selective and would lead to a warming trend. (Note: “…further increasing the bias towards overstatement of warming by NOAA.”) It would be interesting to see whether there is any analysis to support this claim.
BTW, in the figure on p32, (figures don’t seem to have numbers), what was the percentage of stations in each category? The claim is that there is a difference in the location of the station that were not used for the later time points and I was wondering whether the percentages reflected the numerical decrease.
And to run with the scientific big dogs, one has to at least have published something in the scientific literature.
Deech56 (10:29:04),
It appears that the reference was to Anthony’s upcoming paper. Maybe you jumped the gun, or maybe I’m mistaken. But if it was, how can you talk about a “correction”?
As we know, the climate peer review process is a travesty of misrepresentation and cliquish behavior. It is not worth citing as being reliable. Rather, it is rent-seeking grant chasing by a disreputable clique of insiders. If you need some climategate emails showing that, I’ll be happy to oblige. For that matter, here’s someone from neither camp who gives an outsider’s view: click
BTW, have you been published by a climate journal? Just wondering if you’re also part of that lot, or if you’re just pulling the usual appeal to the rigged climate peer review authority in an attempt to prop up the punch-drunk tamino, who lives in excruciating jealousy of the much superior WUWT.
re:Smokey
whether or not Tamino is a “little chihuahua”, his analysis has been replicated:
http://clearclimatecode.org/the-1990s-station-dropout-does-not-have-a-warming-effect/
http://rankexploits.com/musings/2010/a-simple-model-for-spatially-weighted-temp-analysis/
they magically found it!
http://motls.blogspot.com/2010/03/met-office-claims-to-have-found-agw.html
Deech56 (10:29:04)
I tell you what Deech. You come here spouting your die hard dogma, asking questions, quoting “facts”.
Come back when you have seen the paper. Please. I would love it.
But like all of the trolls that come here you hit and run. You say something controversial and do not even read the replies. You cannot be bothered about the science. You do not care to even be sceptical enough to read
anything other than your dogma.
And I cannot believe your “scientific big dogs” slur. Please go back to realclimate.
Deech 56 @ 10:29:04
Roman M has found the flaw in Tamino’s work. Whether that makes any difference to the controversy I don’t know, but I think you should know that Tamino has been found to be in error.
====================
Oh and Deech56, I posted this over at your beloved Taminos blog. Unfortunately he decided to moderate it out. I wonder why?
Hi Mr Tamino Sir,
You are calling Mr Watts out!!! Way to go, you have my vote. Lets get you and him debating the issue, lets see the winner then.
The only problem is you will have to tell everyone who you are and lose your anonimity. Surely that is not a problem now you have been proved correct?
Tamino reminds me of the ‘2012 end of the world’ profit$ of doom alarmi$t$.
They’ll do everything they can to smear anyone that provides any facts that challenge their fear myths. Bottom line, fact$ ruin their agenda and di$rupt their profit$.
It is quite humorous and quite telling that they “wait at the gate” until the king has gone, like cockroaches when the lights are off. Smokey’s “little dog” analogy is apropos also. I have seen this tactic used by alarmists before.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ One of my fathers detractors waited until he had left for 3 weeks on speaking engagements to publish an article in the Winnipeg Free Press. The original article (my fathers) was a based on a criticism of Environment Canada sitting on their hands and not alerting the airport authorities of an extremely violent thunderstorm (actually 2 storms that had combined), resulting in the crushed nose cone and cracked windsheilds of a passenger plane. The plane could have easily been a blotch in a farmers field, had it not been for an experienced pilot and co-pilot. The colleague knew that father would not be able to respond in a reasonable amount of time before the damage had been done. Very calculated and underhanded. This colleague is still vehemently opposed to any skeptical views on climate and to this day controls the University’s views on climate (including the student newspaper). Very sad and dare I say “alarming”.
Peter Plail
I have been looking for an excuse to insinuate a seriously OT post, and your posting together with Anthony’s absence on overdue recuperation has emboldened me to sieze this moment. Moderators… please look away.
During the course of last year’s gripping discussions on extraordinarily serious subjects, there were some contributors who lightened the proceedings with casual observations on the progress or lack of same with regard to their heritage tomato plants.
Intrigued by these peripheral but by no means less interesting digressions, I acquired seeds of various “arctic” species, but unfortunately there were no planting instructions.
I wonder, could the tomatophiles be given discretionary leave to post a recommended planting date for Scotland?
Oops, bad link. Sorry.
Brett Favre/Viking fans can find the M4GW Vikings Song here:
http://minnesotansforglobalwarming.com/m4gw/
The common cold is a miserable affliction. Take comfort from the high regard in which you are held by millions of ordinary citizens around the globe, of which, I am just one. It ought to give you more genuine satisfaction than a Nobel prize ever could.
roger,
Now is a good time if you are growing from seed.
Need some of those little grow pots that you can plant once the seedlings get 3 or 4 inches high. (into a larger pot of course)
The soil must be moist and warm along with plenty of light and high humidity to get them started. A tray of those peat grow pots covered by plastic should do the trick. Transplant your tomatoes into the garden after the last frost.
If you are a bit early or the last frost is late, you may have to cover the plants for a day or two. Good luck. Very few things are better than a fresh vine ripened tomato.
kim (06:51:54) :
Smokey, Roman M at the Blackboard has a critique of Tamino in the Spherical Cow thread, but Cheifio’s work is under stress.
Can you provide a link? I have no idea how to find what you’re referencing otherwise.
Interesting paper about to be released in.. Nonlin. Proc. Geophys., 2010,
here is the link…
http://arxiv.org/abs/1003.0253
and here is the abstract…
Abstract:
Another Look at Climate Sensitivity
Authors: Ilya Zaliapin, Michael Ghil
(Submitted on 1 Mar 2010)
Abstract: We revisit a recent claim that the Earth’s climate system is characterized by sensitive dependence to parameters; in particular, that the system exhibits an asymmetric, large-amplitude response to normally distributed feedback forcing. Such a response would imply irreducible uncertainty in climate change predictions and thus have notable implications for climate science and climate-related policy making. We show that equilibrium climate sensitivity in all generality does not support such an intrinsic indeterminacy; the latter appears only in essentially linear systems. The main flaw in the analysis that led to this claim is inappropriate linearization of an intrinsically nonlinear model; there is no room for physical interpretations or policy conclusions based on this mathematical error. Sensitive dependence nonetheless does exist in the climate system, as well as in climate models — albeit in a very different sense from the one claimed in the linear work under scrutiny — and we illustrate it using a classical energy balance model (EBM) with nonlinear feedbacks. EBMs exhibit two saddle-node bifurcations, more recently called “tipping points”, which give rise to three distinct steady-state climates, two of which are stable. Such bistable behavior is, furthermore, supported by results from more realistic, nonequilibrium climate models. In a truly nonlinear setting, indeterminacy in the size of the response is observed only in the vicinity of tipping points. We show, in fact, that small disturbances cannot result in a large-amplitude response, unless the system is at or near such a point. We discuss briefly how the distance to the bifurcation may be related to the strength of Earth’s ice-albedo feedback.
JP Miller @ 14:03:18
The link to Lucia’s Blackboard is on the sideboard under ‘Lukewarmers’. The whole Spherical Cow thread is about this, well almost; there’s a little about the Jones/Sweden fiasco.
===================
Justin: You wrote, “The only problem is you will have to tell everyone who you are and lose your anonimity.”
The CRU emails reveal who Tamino is:
http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=995&filename=1248998466.txt
Thanks for what you are doing, Anthony. Please get well soon!
Btw. Arctic Sea Ice Extent from DMI in Denmark is interesting
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
Looks like the extent is the greatest seen since 2005.
A new batch of emails from the same rent-seeking scientists: click
Now they’re trying to turn the climategate tide. [source]
Since this is Open Thread, let me post this:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1255565/Spy-chips-hidden-2-5-million-dustbins-council-snoopers-plan-pay-throw-tax.html
I recall that many of our British friends were less-than-amused about the SuperBowl Audi commercial “Green Police” (soundtrack by Cheap Trick), and now I am starting to understand their reaction!!
Thanks to Charles the Moderator and others! Cheers, Charles the DrPH
Don (05:09:21) :
This just in –
“Researchers at Iowa State University have concluded that global climate change will make potholes on Iowa’s roads even worse.”
Details here:
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20100307/DMWEATHER/3070344/1007/news05/Think-potholes-are-bad-now?-Just-wait-a-bit
Is there no end to this madness?”
NO It looks like the Iowa road crews are taking lessons from the Massachusetts road crews.
To provide themselves with full employement road crews after fixing a road, dip their shovels in kerosene to dissolve the road tar. The shovels are then leaned against the truck and allowed to drain onto the road. This softens the road surface and leads to a series of new potholes. Voila! guarenteed full employment.
What is yellow and sleeps three? A Mass Department of transportation work truck, complete with several shovels draining kerosene onto the road.
R. Gates: You wrote, “This moisture is coming right from the record warm area of the Carribean near Puerto Rico.”
What record warm area “of the Carribean near Puerto Rico”? For the week centered on Feb 24, the SST anomalies in that area of the Caribbean are far from the record.
http://i49.tinypic.com/2yypims.png
A daily map of SST anomalies as of today, March 7, doesn’t show record levels near Puerto Rico:
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom.html
Smokey (14:41:21) :
A new batch of emails from the same rent-seeking scientists: click
Incredible. Breathtaking!
My favorite:
Also:
Notice how the name of “consensus” and “IPCC” are mud. 🙂 There is all-out panic because no one wants to go ahead with reducing the use of fossil fuels!
At 08:04 PM 2/27/2010, Paul Falkowski wrote:
Policy, policy, policy. These emails are more fairsounding than the CRU emails, but it is naked aggression on the part of scientists to acheive political ends: national regulation of all energy production and use. It’s ugly.
Gail Combs (15:09:54) : What is yellow and sleeps three? A Mass Department of transportation work truck….
Did you hear about the new DOT shovels?
They stand up all by themselves!
My wife, God bless her, sent a message to our Congressional Representative Rosa DeLauro. She received the reply below. Un-bloody-believable!
Thank you for contacting me regarding our nation’s energy situation. While I know we disagree on this issue, I appreciate hearing your views.
The science community has reached unanimity on the issue of global warming. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001. Within the past 30 years, the rate of warming across the globe has been approximately three times greater than the rate over the last 100 years. Past climate information suggests the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years in the Northern Hemisphere. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that warming of the Earth’s climate system is now “unequivocal.” The IPCC bases this conclusion on observations of increases in average air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and average sea level across the globe. Indeed, it is clear that human activity is contributing to global warming. Even a small change in the earth’s temperature can have a dramatic impact on our climate: more intense storms, more pronounced droughts, coastal areas more severely eroded by rising seas.
In the absence of federal action, 24 states and several regional organizations have moved toward the regulation of greenhouse gasses. While I applaud these efforts, I believe coordinated, federal action is necessary for the goal of limiting national greenhouse gas emissions.
Last year, the House passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). Starting in 2012, this legislation will establish annual limits on emissions of carbon and other global warming pollutants. To achieve these limits, ACES will establish a system of tradable permits called “emissions allowances,” a practice commonly referred to as cap and trade. I understand your concerns regarding the cap and trade system and the potential cost. However, ACES will protect consumers from energy price increases with five programs: one to protect consumers from electricity price increases, one for natural gas prices, one for heating oil, one to protect low- and moderate-income families, and one to provide tax dividends to consumers. In addition, the legislation includes protections for industries that would otherwise be heavily affected by the changes in this bill. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that this legislation will increase federal revenues by $846 billion over 10 years and will increase direct spending by $821 billion, resulting in an estimated net reduction of $24 billion in the federal deficit. You should know that I voted for this legislation when it passed the House by a vote of 219 to 212.
The American Clean Energy and Security Act will create new jobs in green technology and infrastructure, enhance our energy independence, and help protect our environment. It will require electric utilities to create 20 percent of their electricity through renewable energy sources and energy efficiency by 2020. This legislation invests in clean energy technologies, mandates new energy-saving standards for buildings and industry, and will reduce carbon emissions by 17 percent by 2020. It is a balanced approach to confronting our nation’s energy situation that has received broad support from industry as well as environmentalists. I believe this legislation will put us on a path to a clean energy future and make America the global leader in clean energy technology and jobs.
Once again, thank you for taking the time to contact me. Please do not hesitate to contact me on this or any other matter of concern to you in the future.
Sincerely,
Rosa L. DeLauro
Member of Congress
Steve in SC (06:50:09):
hro001 (20:33:45) :
Skin the chicken?! What a travesty!
[…]
“The reason for the skinning part is to eliminate the skimming step and the removal of fat step […] The other reason to skin the chicken is that the removal of pinfeathers is a real pain so I just skin em”
=====
I don’t doubt for a moment that it is. However, I note that your recipe calls for “5 bullion cubes” (sic). I suspect that you meant “bouillon cubes” – because it is unlikely that any “mass of precious metal” would compensate for the highly noticeable lack of flavour that would be the invariable result of a soup compiled with a skinned chicken.
I would further note that bouillon cubes (aka evapourated seasoned meat extract) are a very recent invention – more often found in ersatz broth than in genuine soup; whereas the efficacy of chicken soup has a long history that precedes the invention of this flavour proxy:
“Cold remedies: What works
[…]
“Chicken soup. Generations of parents have spooned chicken soup into their sick children. Now scientists have put chicken soup to the test, discovering that it does have effects that might help relieve cold and flu symptoms in two ways. […]”
http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/cold-remedies/ID00036
It is therefore quite apparent that your recipe is (if not post-normal) at the very least “anti-science”. It is equally apparent that your recipe’s high component of value-added vegetables and herbs is simply a way of hiding the decline in natural chicken flavour.
This being the case, one might be inclined to conclude that your focus on painful “removal of pinfeathers” is simply an attempt to divert attention from the absence of THE principal component in your recipe’s resulting pseudo-chicken-soup. But I couldn’t possibly comment 😉
”””’John Whitman (22:27:50) This is the only fundamental crisis of our age.”””
”””slow to follow (10:21:37) : @ John Whitman, I think it is wider than just science . . . . ”””’
Slow to follow [not],
Yes, just before I hit the send key, I hesitated thinking it would be better to clarify/qualify that statement. But I hit the send key anyway.
Here is my clarification/qualification.
Science, as a process [method], is very close to the root of our western culture, therefore its corruption is fatal to our western culture. There are sciences of every aspect of human life and of reality. Corrupt the basic scientific process [method] then corrupts all. So I went with “This is the only fundamental crisis of our age.” In our times, I know of no other aspect of our western culture that I can apply that statement to.
It is an interesting discussion, which I hope we get into, about how the fundamental corruption process works. Studying [as WUWT does] the very fine details of how the specific corruption worked in the specific case of climate science is important. With the climate science case study added to other scientific corruption cases then one should be able to come up with the fundamental/conceptual process of corruption or “the fundamental law of scientific corruption”.
Vigilance is needed for current and future generations.
John
””Robert E. Phelan on March 2, 2010 at 1:21 am: I’ve always said that the best food in the world is in Taipei.’’’’’
Robert,
Please see my Taipei comment ‘John Whitman (12:58:16)’ on 02 Mar 2010 in the WUWT thread of 01 Mar 2010 titled ‘A tornado free February – first time ever!’.
John
Get well, Anthony, and take a few days off.
Re: Robert E. Phelan (16:01:55): The Representative’s response is, unfortunately, all too typical of the entrenched viewpoint of the political, academic, and scientific elites in the USA. You would never know from their canned talking points that Climategate ever happened, that the IPCC is in disrepute, that CRU’s Phil Jones has admitted there was “no statistically-significant warming in the past 15 years,” that there are energetic ‘skeptical’ sites such as WUWT, that there is really no ‘consensus’ at all that AGW is happening. It reminds us that there is yet a steep hill to climb, with the intransigent media standing squarely in the way.
I sent an email around alerting friends and family to the Climate Realist store that I mentioned above, (16:39:45, click on my handle), and back from an old friend, comes this:
Ah, “the planet.” What can one say? “Never mind the planet; it’s all about the science”? It sounds a bit lame to respond, “There, there, it’s all right. The planet really isn’t dying.” Unfortunately, it’s attitudes like these that the agenda politicians in the Congress and the Administration, not to mention the Goracle himself, are pandering to, knowing they can pull at those heartstrings at will, and gain all the support they want for measures like Cap and Trade and complete control of the economy and our lives.
/Mr Lynn
Catlin Arctic Survey 2010 They are up to it again.
“Canada has had its warmest, driest winter on record”
http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20100306/warm_weather_100306/20100306?hub=TopStoriesV2
Anthony,
Everybody knows a cold lasts 7-10 days, nothing you can do about it.
So, take 7-10 days (light duty).
You’ve earned it.
If you take plenty of Vitamin C, a cold will only last ten days. But if you don’t take any Vitamin C, your cold will last for a week and a half.
”””Leif Svalgaard (20:22:50) : Effects of sunspots on the Earth:
http://www.popsci.com/archive-viewer?id=miwDAAAAMBAJ&pg=366&query=sunspot
from a 1878 perspective.
”””’
Leif,
I have below extracted 3 passages from the editorial in the Editors Table ‘The Sun-spots and Their Effects’ on page 365 of ‘The Popular Science Monthly’ Jan 1878 issue. I have shown them in the order they were presented in the editorial.
“On this broad basis of observation [by Prof Schwabe of Dessau and Prof Wolf of Zurich], made with no reference to any hypothesis of variation, it is established that solar energy changes in intensity by a regular law of rise and fall from a maximum to a minimum of effects; and that the maximum, or greatest activity, coincides with the period of violent perturbations when there is the greatest number of eruptions of heated matter from below, and the most conspicuous display of sun-spots and prominences; while at the minimum periods these manifestations are greatly reduced, or almost entirely wanting.”
“Wind power, water power, steam power, the activities of organic growth, all animal energy, and the great phenomena of changes in the crust of the globe [Earth] due to the circulation of waters through atmospheric agency, are caused by the forces of solar radiation.”
“The sun-spots . . . . are now linked indissolubly to the whole scheme of activity which we observe upon earth and of which we are ourselves a part.”
Leif,
Given the discussion of sunspots versus volcanic/earthquakes recently here at WUWT, I found interesting the statement that “changes in the crust of the globe [earth]” are caused by solar variation indirectly via “ circulation of waters through atmospheric agency”. And since the editor links solar variation with sun-spot variation, he is saying more sun-spots then more crust activities implying more volcanoes/earthquakes.
John
Detailed Study of the Urban Heat Island (UHI) Effect at Three Locations.
I have studied this phenomena at three Australian locations – Te Kowia, in south Queensland; Melbourne, Australia’s second largest city, with a 150-year temperature record; and Sydney, the largest Australian city, which also has a 150-year record.
I have used what I hope is raw data from the Australian Bureau of Metrology web site. I have analysed monthly maximums and monthly minimums, and summarised these into separate annual averages. I have also examined the separate trends for each calendar month.
I have found several surprising results, which I have not seen reported elsewhere:
Te Kowia
1. This is located at a sugar research station and has a 100-year temperature record. It was once in a rural setting, but is now on the outskirts of Mackay, a small coastal city, with a minor highway passing within 100 metres of the measuring instrument.
2. Quite unexpectedly, there has been a steady decline in the trend of monthly maximums, both on an annual average basis and for the 100-year record for each individual calendar month. The monthly minimum trend increased steadily, moving in exactly the opposite direction to the maximums, which caused the UHI effect.
3. There has been a steadily increasing UHI effect in this supposedly rural setting.
Melbourne
1. The thermometer is located in a busy street, in the heart of the city.
2. Both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen steadily, with minimums rising faster, creating the UHI effect, of approximately the same dimension as that at Te Kowia.
3. This is consistent with Dr Roy Spencer’s recent finding, that most of the UHI effect is created in the early years of the urbanisation process.
Sydney
1. The thermometer is located in a lovely grassy park on Observatory hill overlooking the city and harbour, but within close proximity to the busy Sydney Harbour Bridge.
2. Both maximums and minimums increased over time, but while the trend in minimums was steady, the maximums varied to a considerable extent.
3. Most surprisingly, the annual average UHI effect was negative. By which I mean that the annual maximums increased faster than the annual minimums.
4. Analysis of the separate changes for each calendar month, showed a positive UHI effect in the five warmer months from October to February, but a negative UHI in the seven cooler from March to September. The overall annual UHI effect was negative as noted above.
There have been a number of reports lately of individual locations, where annual temperatures have been stable or declining over quite extended periods. From the present pilot study, it appears that a more detailed study of maximums and minimums separately, plus seasonalised variations, is required in order to properly understand the changing temperature. Use of global gridded temperature only serves to confuse the picture.
I will be pleased to forward a more detailed report with charts and tables if this is of interest. You have my email address.
Global warming sceptic wins the race.
This is almost as good as a horse called Ethereal winning the Caufield Cup and the Melbourne Cup when I was contributing code to Ethereal (now called Wireshark).
Regarding the “warm and dry” winter in Canada…….
Yes, all I can remember this winter is everyone complaining about how warm and dry it was…../sarc off/
David Phillips is an alarmist who enjoys the media attention.
John Whitman (17:02:43) :
“…I am guessing, sounds like you were in Taipei sometime between the late ’70s to the mid ’80s or so…”
Right in one, John…. 1973 to 1987. It’s been a very long time, but chances are good we actually bought each other a drink once or thrice….
MODERATOR: please send John Whitman my e-mail address. Thankyou.
[OK. But we’re not a dating service ☺ ~dbs]
Mine lasted the better part of a fortnight, Smokey, …
Robert in Calgary (19:36:26) :”David Phillips is an alarmist who enjoys the media attention”. He is listed as a “Senior Climatologist”. Sounds impressive doesn’t it?
I would like to ask if Anthony has ever done a post on the picture at the top of the home page? Could someone kindly point me in the right direction if he has. I happen to love storms , kinda in a “Lieutenant Dan” sorta way, if anyone else can relate. The fury is something that impresses me. That and scale.
David Ball (20:22:51),
See? I told you!
In my Humpty Dumpty persona, “the better part of” means ≈10 days.
””””Robert E. Phelan (19:45:58)””””’
”””MODERATOR: [OK. But we’re not a dating service ☺ ~dbs]””’
dbs,
thanks, got it
but a climatic dating service sounds pretty provocative
John
[Just razzing you in fun. Please take no offense, we’re here to help. ~dbs]
David Ball (20:22:51) :
Mine lasted the better part of a fortnight, Smokey, …
=========
I know the dictionary definition of a “fortnight”,
but how did it come about???
John Whitman (19:01:48) :
Effects of sunspots on the Earth [1878]
My purpose for the comment was to show that we have made no progress in the intervening 142 years. We are still pushing the same tired hypotheses with no resolution in sight.
About the sunspots and the solar cycle:
“It cannot be said that much progress has been made towards the disclosure of the cause, or causes, of the sun-spot cycle. Most thinkers on this difficult subject provide a quasi-explanation of the periodicity through certain assumed vicissitudes affecting internal processes. In all these theories, however, the course of transition is arbitrarily arranged to suit a period, which imposes itself as a fact peremptorily claiming admittance, while obstinately defying explanation”
Agnes M. Clerke, A Popular History of Astronomy During the Nineteenth Century, page 163, 4th edition, A. & C. Black, London, 1902.
… we’re not a dating service ☺ ~dbs
Looks like John and I have met before and have friends in common. We’ll name the first one after you.
to: Leif Svalgaard
I was at your web sight and could not find your ap chart I found this:
http://www.leif.org/research/TSI-SORCE-2008-now.png
do you track the aa ap , chart it there?
Thanks Tim L
Luke Skywarmer (22:37:00) :
I was at your web site and could not find your ap chart
There is a lot more at
http://www.leif.org/research/files.htm
e.g.
Ap 1844-2009.pdf
Ap and Aa relation.pdf
Ap Bartels Rotation Plot.pdf
Ap-1844-2008.png
Ap-1844-2010.xls
Ap-Index-1932-now.png
Ap-index-1932-now.xls
Ap-index-monthly-means.txt
Ap-Monthly-Averages-1844-Now.png
Ap-since-1991.png
u.k.(us) (20:58:43) :Good question, and I pride myself on having the answer to many useless trivial tidbits, but I am at a loss on that one. Hopefully your response will add to my arsenal of miscellany. That is if the mods don’t snip me in the arsenal, ……..
Tx Leif,
http://www.leif.org/research/Ap-Index-1932-now.png
thats the one , does look like 1900, or cycle # 13-14
Richard E Phelan: I wouldn’t be alarmed by the response you got from your representative. Having worked in communications offices for politicians, and one premier here in Canada, what you got was a standard answer for a first-time writer. Here’s how these offices work:
Every letter that comes in is sorted and classified by the topic or topics. About 99% will go to the standard response team, while those sensitive or from high profile people are forwarded on to the representative to answer personally.
The standard letter is taken by a writer who then “plugs” in the appropriate paragraph or paragraphs, which have been pre-written in several versions to suit the tone and apparent demeanour of the letter’s author.
I suggest that your wife write again criticizing the response. You will get another letter with more detailed paragraphs specifically written to further defend the representative’s stance. When your wife writes AGAIN, chances are the staff will have taken notice and either send her letter up the chain or you will get a short response along the lines of “thank you for sharing your opinion with me. I will take in into consideration.” It never hurts to keep writing. Make sure that each successive letter goes into more detail and is not a general rant. Who knows, you may even get an actual letter from your rep.
Thanks for that Steve, I’ll set the missus on it as it was she who asked. Meanwhile I can return to enjoying the analysis of today’s subjects.
I never expected to be eating tomatoes recommended on a climate blog by guys in Oregon and Canada. What an amazing source of knowledge this site is!
I suppose Gavin and his cohorts are far too serious to have gardening references, but if they did it would have to be the cultivation of cacti and associated succulents.
I thought this was great.
http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/healthy-living/virginia-ironsides-dilemmas-our-daughter-is-being-indoctrinated-about-global-warming-1917721.html
Dear Virginia,
Our daughter is only seven, but it appears that she’s being indoctrinated about global warming at school.
Every day when she gets home she’s got some new scare story and is always insisting we turn off the lights or turn the heating down. She’s also got very picky about food and where it comes from. We wouldn’t mind, but it seems to be making not just our lives a misery, but hers, too. What can we do?
Yours sincerely, Monica
Before you start writing angry letters to the school governors, first find out what, exactly, is going on at school. It may be that your daughter’s just going through a fearful stage in her life for some reason, and pinning all her anxieties on global warming. In which case, it would be a good idea to have a chat with her teacher to ask if she could perhaps play down the scare stories, or at least put both sides of the question if, indeed, she has to go into the subject at all.
It might be worth, too, contacting other parents and finding out what their children are feeling. If you can get some other families on your side, you’ll carry far more weight.
If it turns out, of course, that your daughter’s got some crazed global warming evangelist in charge of her class, who’s constantly inspiring terror by warning of the dire consequences of putting used tissues or Sellotape into the recycling bin, you’d certainly be justified in going to the head and demanding that he or she has a word with the teacher and tells him or her to tone it down. Or at least make clear that it is only one view, and that not everyone shares it.
Because that’s the truth. Global warming is like God. Some people believe in it fervently. Other people don’t. Indeed, people are believing it less and less – only 57 per cent of Americans believe it – and surely most intelligent people must admit that they just don’t know. And even if it is true, there may be ways we can adapt to it successfully.
You must sit your daughter down and tell her that there certainly isn’t a consensus of global warming. Tell her there’ve always been scare stories, most of which have come to nothing. If you yourself do believe in it, but aren’t too bothered, then find a friend who can argue the case against it fluently and get him or her to put the case forcefully.
Re: Children and global warming alarmism. Teachers in fact project their world view onto their students at every opportunity. There is nothing you can do about it except to give your child hugs and remind them that you love them and that you will protect them. Contrary to what is normally thought, childhood can be a dark and fearful time, and a teacher or parent can inadvertently add to those fears. My own nightmares concerned nuclear holocaust and in retrospect I wish my parents had been less avid followers of the “news”. The Cuban Missile Crisis precipitated a 10 year period in my life where sleep often brought black and vile nightmares about nuclear death. You cannot protect children from information but was it neccessary to be told of flesh melting from bones etc.etc. Many global warming scenarios are tailor-made for children; drowning animals, starving children, uncontrollable weather events and so on. The modern “bogy man” has more power than anything found in Grimms.
Anthony, damn you, I think I caught your cold…by teleconnection apparently.
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