RSS: Global Temperature Also Cooler in May

A few days ago I highlighted the drop in global temperatures as measured by satellite from UAH, the University of Alabama, Huntsville. They published their satellite derived Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit data set of the Lower Troposphere for May 2008 and it showed that it is significantly colder globally, colder even than the significant drop to -0.046°C seen in January 2008.

The global ∆T for UAH from April to May 2008 was -.195°C

RSS (Remote Sensing Systems of Santa Rosa, CA) RSS Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) lower troposphere global temperature anomaly data by For May 2008 is published and has moved below the zero anomaly line, with a value of -0.083°C for a change (∆T) of  -0.163 °C globally from April 2008.

RSS
2008 1 -0.070
2008 2 -0.002
2008 3   0.079
2008 4   0.080
2008 5 -0.083

I had predicted when I posted the UAH data that the RSS value for global temperature anomaly for the lower troposphere would end up around 0.05 to -0.15°C. Coming in at -0.083°C, I was on target.

This value is greater in magnitude than the drop seen in January 2008 to -0.07°C


click for a larger image
Reference: RSS data here (RSS Data Version 3.1)

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55 Responses to RSS: Global Temperature Also Cooler in May

  1. swampie says:

    While I like poking the Church of Global Warming with a sharp stick as much as anybody else (grin), I expect the temperatures for June will be warmer.

    /Or else my livestock expenses are gonna be astronomical this year. No hay, no pasture, and no corn as well? *sigh*

  2. Bob Tisdale says:

    Looking at their SST data:
    http://www.remss.com/pub/msu/monthly_time_series/RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Ocean_v03_1.txt
    May 2008 = -0.164 deg C
    June 1999 = -0.182 deg C
    November 1994 = -0.180 deg C

    You have to go back to 1993 to find colder SSTs.

    Brrrr. No kayaking for me. I’ll have to wait until the GISSTEMP data comes out. It’ll warm up then.

  3. Brian D says:

    Graph should say May 08, not April 08, Anthony.

    With this cooler air bucking the the warmer air, it sure is making a rough go in the central US. Lots of rain, wind, hail, and tornadoes. The system that just went through yesterday and today was more early spring like. Sure hope summer starts soon, like it is in the south. We only get so many days of it here. Ice out to green up ran almost 2 weeks behind. Lilacs are finally coming out and apple trees are now in full bloom. Looking like green tomatoes in the fall if this continues.

    REPLY: Fixed, fighting allergy and head cold this week, thus I’m marginally stupid at times.

  4. Emmanuel ROBERT says:

    Hi Anthony,
    Short message from France.
    I discovered this blog in january. I am a part of the 402 277 and I have to say I feel very proud to be a part of your success. Great SWAG for RSS MSU.
    In your last plot : I think you wanted to write may 08 as the last month on record.
    It has been raining quite a lot here in Toulouse in may but the most impressive event was a rough hail drop : about 5 inches in 15 minutes.

    REPLY: Fixed, May 08, thanks. I’m fighting allergy and head cold this week, thus I’m marginally stupid at times.

  5. Tom in Texas says:

    “I had predicted…0.05 to -0.15°C”

    Thats -0.05 +/- 0.10

    Can you tighten up those error bars a little next month?

    How about just up or down (+/-) ?

    BTW, great site (posts and comments). I check it out a couple times a day.

    Is there any way to get these numbers weekly?
    We are 25% thru June and I’m wondering the trend.

    REPLY: Thanks to Dr. Roy Spencer & Dr. Danny Braswell, GHCC at the University of Alabama, Hunsville, we can watch global temperatures of the lower troposphere daily at this page:

    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/

  6. Strat Player says:

    Sir Anthony,

    Those daily lower troposphere temps seem to show a seasonal variance. Are they northern hemisphere biased?

    Thank you.

    REPLY: They are both NH and SH combined, but remember that SH has more ocean

  7. Mace says:

    I appreciate the strong work here. I’ve looking at the data for about a month and I am totally amazed at how over-hyped agw seems to be.

    Y2K was a real problem. I mean we actually fixed software in that runup. I told everyone we’d be just fine. Today, It astounds me to think of the number of scientists who are locked into the CO2 hypothesis. And it may not even be a real problem. Ya can’t make this stuff up.

  8. Tom in Texas says:

    Thanks Anthony – exactly what is was looking for.

    June 5, 2008: -0.31F (I thought they used C?)

  9. Tom in Texas says:

    While poking around at that link, I discovered they had the temps for 10 different altitudes.
    Do they average them, weight them, or what, to come up with their final number?
    BTW, @ 25K ft. the value was -0.66F

    I guess if I poked around some more, I’d find the background details.

  10. crosspatch says:

    “I expect the temperatures for June will be warmer.”

    Not where I live (SF Bay area). We are consistently running 10 degrees below normal here for weeks. The temps are supposed to shoot all the way up to “normal” around the 11th of the month for about 4 or 5 days and are forecast to drop back to 10 below normal again.

    I did see that temps were going to spike up on the East coast for a few days but I noticed this over at icecap.us:

    The next week will see a sudden arrival of summer temperatures in the east and central United States as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in a location that favors a western North American trough and the building of a southeast and south central ridge. After mid-month, the MJO should advance to a spot favoring the trough coming east and the ridge backing up to the south central and Rockies/Intermountain. The heat will retreat west gain and more normal June readings will return to the east.

  11. An Inquirer says:

    Rex,
    Thanks for your contribution. I am glad that I am not the only one puzzled by the year-to-year image comparison vs. graph of daily arctic ice. I also would tend to give the benefit of the doubt and would imagine that computers are on autopilot translating images into graphs. However, the results are getting beyond the edge of credibility.

  12. Jerker Andersson says:

    Tom in Texas

    I think this is what you are looking for:
    http://www.remss.com/msu/msu_data_description.html#figures

  13. Frank Ravizza says:

    I ran my heater full blast on my way home from work around 7:00 PM, from Livermore to Brentwood, CA. That’s not very “summer” like. Perhaps June will continue the cooling trend.

  14. David Walton says:

    Dang, Anthony, good call. Seems to me you know what you are doing (well, of course, I already knew that). And to think the debate was over!

  15. Joe Bodaro says:

    rex (20:17:42) :
    An Inquirer (22:01:01)
    i too have been puzzled by that anomaly

    anyone have a better site?

    sorry for the off topic post.

  16. Walter Dnes says:

    Sorry for asking a second time. I promise this will be the last. How does one get from the UAH daily temps http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_chLT.r001.txt to their monthy temps at http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/public/msu/t2lt/tltglhmam_5.2 There doesn’t seem to be any logic connecting the daily temps to the monthlies, or ami I using the wrong daily file?

  17. Pierre Gosselin says:

    It’s getting cooler?!?!
    Well, I’m not really convinced global temps are on some kind of cooling trend over the short or midterm, as often asserted by skeptics. When you look at sea surface temps over the last few months, one actucally sees just the opposite. Compare the SSTs:

    of Feb 4:
    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.2.4.2008.gif
    of Mar 3
    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.3.6.2008.gif
    of April 3
    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.4.3.2008.gif
    of May 5
    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.5.2008.gif
    June 5
    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.5.5.2008.gif

    Appears to me, just eyeballing these charts, the SSTs of the 3 big oceans are moving up, and not down.
    So either the above graphics are wrong, or the satellite data are wrong.
    What’s going on here?

  18. Pierre Gosselin says:

    Rex,
    The images look very similar. Actually there even appears to be more snow last year at this time than there is today. The sea ice graph also indicates that there was a bit more ice last year. But that alone could be an indication of the huge melt-off from last summer, which was fully recovered during the hard winter of 07/08. If 08 is indeed colder than 07, as indicated by satellite data, then the 08 summer melt-off shouldn’t reach the levels of last summer.

    Anthony,
    I checked the AMSU graphic. What is meant by “Channel 4″?

    REPLY: Thats the microwave frequency channel. Each channel has characteristics which resolve differt parts of the atmosphere in different ways.

    The AMSU has two sub-instruments, AMSU-A and AMSU-B. AMSU-A has 15 channels between 23.8 and 89 GHz, and is used primarily for measuring atmospheric temperatures (known as “temperature sounding”). It has a ground resolution near nadir of 45 km. AMSU-B, with five channels between 89 and 183.3 GHz, has a spatial resolution near nadir of 15 km and is primarily intended for moisture sounding. Spot size of both sub-instruments becomes larger and more elongated toward the edges of the swath. When the two instruments are used together, there are roughly 9 AMSU-B fields-of-view in a 3×3 array corresponding to each AMSU-A field-of-view. This reflects the higher spatial variability of water vapor compared to temperature. HIRS/3 infrared sounders with the same spatial resolution as AMSU-B are also included on NOAA 15-17 satellites and are used together with AMSU-A and AMSU-B. Together the three instruments form ATOVS, the Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder.

    The Aqua and MetOp AMSU-A instruments are 15-channel microwave sounders designed primarily to obtain temperature profiles in the upper atmosphere (especially the stratosphere) and to provide a cloud-filtering capability for tropospheric temperature observations.

    More: http://www.aqua.nasa.gov/about/instrument_amsu.php

  19. Pierre Gosselin says:

    A kindý request as a reader to other readers:
    With all due respect I honestly find all these anecdotes about temperatures “here im my hometown” being below normal, etc. etc. etc. to be awfully boring, and they are indeed by themselves completely meaningless as climate data. You can find cold and warm extremes anytime and anywhere. Perhaps we ought to focus much more on the scientific approach and meaningful data. I think such anecdotes merely represent annoying chaff that needs to be discarded from the real scientific hay. You can’t draw the big picture with a couple of pixels. If Anthony had a rule banning local weather anecdotes, etc. from his blog, I’d be the last to protest.

    PS
    By the way, the temperature in my town here in Quakenbreuck, Germany was 5.3°C above normal yesterday.
    Now wasn’t that interesting?!
    (Of course not! Who gives a rat’s a$$?).

    REPLY: Pierre, as a TV/and now radio meteorologist, people have always simply “talked” about the weather to me. I view it as an honor. It is and always has been, a universal conversational ice breaker. I’m not about to restrict what I view as a friendly exchange. Chill.

    Now as to the weather in my hometown, you can check it out right here on my live weather station and webcam: http://www.bidwellranchcam.com

    Anybody that wants one of these for their hometown, feel free to contact me.

  20. Philip_B says:

    rex, there isn’t an issue here. The first link shows ice thickness as well as extent. The much greater area of thinner ice this year versus last year is due to the ice extent that melted last year after this point in the year, which you can clearly see in your second link.

    The interesting question is will we see a new record low for NH sea ice extent this summer. Some well known ‘experts’ are saying we will. Here is one,

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/04/080430124607.htm

    It will be an interesting test of model forecasts. To date, this year looks almost identical to last year.

  21. Bill Illis says:

    In terms of the ice extent comparisons, I note that the ice data has been subject to the same “adjustments” that have been done to the temperature data.

    This “before and after” animation of the changes made by the NSIDC in January 2007 should introduce a little scepticism in any objective person. There was no explanation provided for the changes.

    The January 2007 sea ice extent was reduced by 750,000 sq. kms in this “adjustment”, while the previous low record in 1995 was adjusted upward by 250,000 sq. kms.

    http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/2918/anomalykm3.gif

  22. Pamela Gray says:

    Pierre, anecdotal evidence is the first stage of the scientific method: OBSERVATION. Every single thing we have discussed on every thread can be traced back to that first and all important stage. Galileo, as documented in his short book, The Starry Messenger, was and still is the greatest anecdotal observer ever lived.

    You get an F in 5th grade science young man.

  23. Pierre Gosselin says:

    Pam,
    Okay. It’s 5°C warmer than normal where I live today.
    Gee! The world muat be getting warmer!

    Anecdotes are what AGW loonies use to form their “science”, and that’s why they can’t win debates. Anecdotes can be used to spawn a hypotheis, but certainly cannot serve as postulates. Again, single weather events by themselves are utterly meaningless in the climate debate. The integral of massive amounts of weather data over longer time periods starts to mean something. For example, if the average temperature in Boston over the last 10 years is 1°C lower than normal, then it says something for that region.
    I’m glad you weren’t my science teacher, young lady.

  24. Bill says:

    Pierre,

    Increase in ocean surface temps could be because the current La Nina is fading and shifting to ‘neutral’ . I think you get warmer surface temps when that happens.

  25. Pierre Gosselin says:

    Anthony,
    Thanks the detailed explanation of Channel 4. I’m learning something here every day.

    Concenring weather anecdotes, I’ve got nothing against them, and indeed some are interesting. But it seems too many people , especilly the alarmists, misuse them in an attempt to “settle the science”. I guess if you keep repeating them, then they start to become trends.

    If someone goes out in his back yard and collects data for 10 or 20 years and plots trends, well then that’s really something. Or if he goes back in the records 30 years and analyzes data and plots trends, that’s something too.

    I just think we should not stoop to the same desparate tactics that the alarmists use…the constant citing of anecdotal data as proof of warming. To me it’s a weird way to debate science. But I guess I can understand people wanting to tell us about their local weather.

    For the lovers of anecdotes:
    Currently it’s 79°F and sunny here in Quakenbrueck, Germany. Heck, aint been this warm here since yesterday.

  26. Steve_L says:

    Pierre,

    I’ll agree to a ban about discussing local weather temperatures in this blog as soon as the mainstream media stops using every single instance of storms, high temperatures, floods, tornados, hurricanes, low temperatures, big winds, sunburn, slippery ice, and trees shedding their leaves in October as “proof” of manmade global warming.

    In the meantime we have our first hot days of the year here in Michigan. Run for the fricken hills and stop exhaling your CO2!

  27. JP says:

    Pierre,
    The Atlantic is in the middle of a positive AMO. The postive anomalies there coincide with a persistent blocking high which has remained anchored across much of Western Europe these last several month. Couple this with a “positive” NAO, and it isn’t surprising that Europe is above average as far as temperatures go. The positive AMO began around 1995, and on average last around 25 years.

    The Pacific is steadily coming out of a moderate to strong La Nina event. Again, I don’t think anyone is surprised that the anomalies are positive there. However, the Pacific is in the beginnings of a negative PDO (whether this will be long term 30 year pattern or a shorter one remains to be seen).

    For those living in North America, one should brush up on the positive AMO/negative PDO analogs. There is still quite a bit of work that needs to be done fitting this anaologs into medium to long term synoptic weather patterns, but much of the ancedotal weather information from North America coincides with past -PDO/+AMO patterns. The watchword here is precipitation and not temperature. When observers on this blog quip that they hope the -PDO will be short lived (I am one of them) point to the drought/heat waves of the 1930s/1940s. Currently, the Plains in NAmerica are setting up for an early summer/late spring heat wave. Northern Florida and Georgia have been in drought for several years.

    Europe is a different animal entirely. The NAO/AMO mix as well as patterns over East Asia have a more direct effect on European climate than does the Pacific.

    Short term (0-15 month) temp/precip patterns may not be that important when speaking of climate , but when they extend in 16-24 or 26 months) they may indicate something more. Overall, SSTs have cooled since 2003 (5 years). Perhaps this slight cooling means nothing, but then again it is something that the Alarmists did not expect and continue to ignore or at the very least minimize.

  28. Bob Tisdale says:

    Pierre: About your question, “It’s getting cooler?!?!” The NOAA maps are of SST anomalies. The comments I made earlier about SSTs were actually mislabeled. Those temperatures are lower troposphere over oceans. My mistake. The following is a graph of global SST anomalies from Jan 07 to April 08.
    http://i26.tinypic.com/29dg07l.jpg
    Based on this data, SSTs have risen since the first of the year. The data’s from the most current Smith and Reynolds SST data set, ERSST.v3, linked here.
    ftp://eclipse.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/ersst/pdo
    Good eyes.

  29. tty says:

    Philip_B, that first link does not show ice thickness, only ice concentration, i e the part of the water surface covered by ice. Ice thickness is not reliably measurable from satellites.

    The issue here is that the cryosphere ice extent curve shows this year’s ice area as smaller than the same time last year, while the MK I Eyeball (and other measurements, e. g. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/) clearly indicates that it is larger. This is not surprising since there have been big data problems at cryosphere for several months. This is obvious if you look at the curves for sub-areas. Just now the ice area for Baffin’s Bay has decreased by a third from one day to another. This has happened repeatedly in different areas but usually the lost ice comes back after a few days. However in Berings Sea the ice area went to Zero on June 1, though there is still some ice there a week later. In short: don’t trust that curve.

    A related matter: during 1989-2003 the satellite maps definitely show too much ice. I can see this by checking the Baltic where I know the actual ice conditions. The maps show ice there into July, long after it has melted.

  30. DAV says:

    Pierre G:

    Currently it’s 79°F and sunny here in Quakenbrueck, Germany. Heck, aint been this warm here since yesterday.

    Hey! Send some of that cold air this-a-way. Right now, the unofficial temp here near DC is 100+F in the shade. Warmest its been all day. ;)

  31. Walter Dnes says:

    The RSS 12-month running mean July 2007..June 2008 is +0.143.

    The RSS 12-month running mean April 1987..March 1988 is +0.144.

    RSS joins UAH in showing no net global warming over the past 20 years.

    Hadley isn’t out for May yet, but it’ll take approx 4 months to get to 1988 levels (12 month running mean) at the current rate of descent. It is conceivable that Hadley can match late 1995 if May falls steeply enough. My latest spreadsheet is zipped up at http://clients.teksavvy.com/~walterdnes/temperatures.zip

  32. Jeff Alberts says:

    Hey Pierre, I used to live out DC way. Here in Seattle it’s 50 and rainy, still. Darn Cascades won’t let the cold air by.

  33. Ken says:

    It was 45 in Spokane at midday…how lovely for June 7th.

    I wonder if this recent cooling…which caught a lot of people’s attention earlier this year…will continue.

    Time will tell. Same goes for how television media portrays ‘that warming.’

    What warming? Mother Earth…please let us know that we are wrong in absolute assertions…via an ice age. Actually, learning a lesson and suffering because of it probably wouldn’t be all that fun…come to think of it.

    Guess I should be careful what I wish for…

  34. Mike from Canmore says:

    Don’t worry folks, for a cool $45 trillion, all this global warming will go away. Better hurry up and pay or else mother nature might up and solve the problem all on her own and all those poor bureaucrats will have to dream up another doomsday scenario.
    http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080606/ap_on_bi_ge/japan_iea_climate_change

  35. Jerker Andersson says:

    Predicting RSS once UAH is available is not as hard as you can think. The difference between RSS and UAH is not a random noice but 12 month cyclic error.
    This diagram shows RSS minus UAH on monthly values.
    http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3116/2559561428_0210c72355_o.jpg

    The question is, which one of them is causing the cyclic error?
    It is in fact not as small as you can think. If you look on the last 10 years there is a peak to peak change of up to 0.2C which I think is rather large.
    The error seems to be very predictable since 10 years.

    If looking on the yearly average, since the error seems to repeat in a 12 month cycle, the error is not that very large, up to 0.08 degrees.
    http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3049/2558758077_cba278dcf4_o.jpg

    Another thought I have had about the satellite records is how we can have same global temperature as in 1999 but the heat are distrubuted differently.
    For example look at the altitude 1km and compare with 1999.
    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+001

    It is still rather warm at the lowest part of tropossphere.
    If we climb up a bit to 7.5km it is the oposite.
    http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps+003
    The temperature is lower at this altitude.

    Are there any explanations why it is this way? Does it mean anything?
    I have my own most non scientific theory what has happened.

    The major way the atmosphere at 7.5 km can heat up is via heated air raising from the surface. The reason why it is cooler up there now is because less heated air is raising up to higher altitudes.
    This might also be the reason why we still do not see as much cooling at the lowest part of troposphere. I would call that a positive feedback that prevents earth from cooling too fast.
    I would guess there is the same negative feedback preventing earth from heating too fast when the temperature raises.

    This is just my most unscientific reflection on the subject.
    Maybe the answer is out there somewhere allready?

  36. Rade says:

    May and whole spring temperature averages in Croatia were above 30 years average.

  37. Bill Illis says:

    In terms of the above average European temperatures, if you look at SSTs worldwide right now, you’ll see that the North Atlantic is much, much warmer than normal right now.

    There are large areas which are up to 5C above average which is quite unusual.

    It won’t last long, of course, because the Gulf Stream off North America is up to 3C colder than average and will be coming your way shortly. That section of the Gulf Stream was 5C warmer than normal about two months ago and has now migrated its way up to Norway.

    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.6.5.2008.gif

    http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/anom_anim.html

  38. Jared says:

    Pierre-

    Yes, global SSTAs have been rising as the La Nina has weakened. However, the satellite readings UAH and RSS measure the temperature of the lower troposphere, which matches general trends at the surface. So even though the oceans have started warming recently, the air temperature has still been decreasing. Make sense?

  39. AB TOSSER says:

    Anthony. Could you place trend lines on your graphs where possible, as I have no time to take the data and place it onto a spreadsheet.
    PS . If a Maunder Minimum is on the way, then down here in Brisbane Australia we will be inundated with climate refugees from the North.

    REPLY: AB, every time I put a trend line on a graph a fight breaks out. I prefer to let people see their own trends.

  40. A.Syme says:

    Is there a standard explaination for the spike in 1998 temps ?

    REPLY: Yes, a huge El Nino that year.

    See this image:

    http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a001400/a001402/f08_sstanom_web.jpg

  41. sod says:

    The issue here is that the cryosphere ice extent curve shows this year’s ice area as smaller than the same time last year, while the MK I Eyeball (and other measurements, e. g. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/) clearly indicates that it is larger.

    you are mixing up the terms “sea ice area” and “sea ice extend”.

    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png

    this site does meassure “extend”. that is why the number is BIGGER than the one from cryosphere, which does meassure “area”.

    http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg

    i am not an ice expert, but here s my idea on this:

    the massive amount of thin ice of this winter has left plenty of “extend” and little “area”.

    REPLY:
    …you are mixing up the terms “sea ice area” and “sea ice extend”.

    I think you mean “sea ice extent”

  42. Mace says:

    Sorry if I am repeating something here. Also verifying that I am reading this correctly.
    National Snow Ice Data Center (NASA, NOAA) is representing the sea ice as above average. How so? This link:

    http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/archives/image_select.html

    shows both
    1. The current sea ice extent. Select the drop down button for “sea ice extent” …default setting
    2. And what the average is for that SPECIFIC month. Select “extent anomalies”

    So for N Hemisphere:
    1. the May 08 extent is 13.2 M sq km
    2. the May 08 mean is 13.6 M sq km

    The N Hemi. is .4 M sq km BELOW the mean
    The S Hemi is .8 M sq km ABOVE the mean

    So currently the total sea ice is net +.4 M sq km above the mean.

    This page image loads slowly so wait a few seconds. You can also the downtrend at the N Pole and uptrend at the S pole when you look at the “extent anomaly” setting.

  43. swampie says:

    Sorry, Pierre, but I enjoy having on-the-spot weather observations. The weather reports say things like “cool weather in Missouri and Illinois with continued rain”. The people that are there talk about their garden running two or more weeks later than normal and farmers not being able to plow and plant summer grain because the fields are too wet and cold. As a livestock producer, I know that I am going to have to cull the flock heavily if the drought continues here because I can’t count on inexpensive grain to substitute for my nonexistent pasture from this multi-year drought.

  44. sod says:

    I think you mean “sea ice extent”

    hm, yes. looks like it was a bit late…

    The N Hemi. is .4 M sq km BELOW the mean
    The S Hemi is .8 M sq km ABOVE the mean

    So currently the total sea ice is net +.4 M sq km above the mean.

    that is true. though the problem with this view is, that the arctic sea ice is showing an obvious downward TREND. while the south has been fluctuating wildly for quite some time.

    your argument boils down to this:
    while my salery has been shring continously over the alst 10 years, i won the lottery this year, so it balances out….

  45. Pamela Gray says:

    The beer last night was extra cold and the conversation warmer than usual. However, I don’t see a trend up or down over the longer term. The uptick in warm conversation coincides quite well anecdotally with election time so there could be a connection there. Further studies could verify this anecdotal observation by setting up experiments to more accurately gage the conversation warmth when a political topic is brought forth.

  46. tty says:

    sod: In any case half of the 200,000 sq km of ice that disappeared in Baffin’s Bay yesterday was reincarnated today so for the moment both ice area and ice extent in the Arctic is officially slightly larger than last year….

  47. sod says:

    sod: In any case half of the 200,000 sq km of ice that disappeared in Baffin’s Bay yesterday was reincarnated today so for the moment both ice area and ice extent in the Arctic is officially slightly larger than last year….

    yes. actually, i don t expect this year to bring a new summer low.

    but reading this “cooler may2 topics, shouldn t you guys expect this years summer ice to be above the long time averages?

  48. Ric Werme says:

    On local weather reports and anecdotal evidence.

    I’ll often tack on a local obs at the end of a more useful post. Not much server load, easy to skip over.

    One form of anecdotal evidence are reports of things that haven’t happened in long-term memory and things that are happening like they used to back in the last negative PDO. These are good to use as examples and make a good balance when talking about harder evidence. You can talk and talk about negative PDOs and La Ninas until you turn blue (in the cold), but a good May snow storm will get locals’ attention. (We didn’t have on this year, but did blast away a lot of snowfall records.

    – Ric

    Oh, Concord NH set a record high today, 94 or 95. We won’t break tomorrow’s record, 98, set in 1933. Yes, the year with a Summer. A lot of times when the west coast is cool, we’re warm. Nothing exciting, and I’m almost embarrassed to note it. :-)

  49. Merovign says:

    I normally read and don’t post here… lots to learn.

    But a comment for Pierre, who seemed surprised at the response:

    Here’s a fun experiment you can try at home; go to a local meeting place, where people commonly have discussions. Wait for a discussion to start, then after a few minutes, chime in and tell those people that they shouldn’t say what they’re saying because it doesn’t interest you. Observe their responses.

    Over time, those responses may be instructive.

    Besides, anecdotes are data points, like thermometer records – more detailed but less precise, perhaps.

  50. Patrick Hadley says:

    The GISS May figure has been released. As expected it does not show the size of drop in the UAH and RSS figures, but it is 0.36, down from 0.41 last month, so there is a drop of 0.05.

    The spring average, with the March figure again reduced a little to 0.58, is the lowest since 2001, as is the moving 12 month average.

  51. SteveSadlov says:

    Let us face the facts about this

    It is a seriously negative leading indicator.

    Many will try to spin it otherwise.

    Ironically, the AGW fanatics are strange breed of optimist. They deny the fact that the warm times are the best of times, and, in the grand swathe of history, are rare. All the other times are cruel and dark.

    Such is life, in this universe we are given. It is what it is.

  52. Pamela Gray says:

    Snow advisory for all of Wallowa County tonight. Accumulations of up to 8 inches in the higher mountains with snow showers down to the 4000 foot elevation. The valley floor is about 3600 ft. Campers are warned to be prepared to snow camp. Several higher camp sites are still closed due to snow drifts and snow slides still blocking roads.

    It is telling that we didn’t get run-off flooding. The higher elevation temps have been too cold to result in rapid spring snow melt of any degree. In the mid 70’s I was caught in a mud slide which was the result of warm spring downpours after heavy snow accumulations. We stayed in the house while the mud slid around us. You could hear the boulders in the mud hit the house with a thud then scrape along the outside as they crawled their way down the hill and around the house to the road. I’m glad all that snow is staying in the mountains.

  53. Pamela Gray says:

    Snow Advisory hell!!!! We have blizzard conditions at pass levels (most are at 4000 ft rounded up or down) and it is witch tit cold in Pendleton, Oregon. Access to Wallowa County through all four routes shows winter driving conditions. Thank God my snow tires are here in Pendleton instead of at the ranch. For a camera view check out tripcheck.com and click on the NE corner of the map. Those blue dots indicate snow building up on the road.

    Anthony, I am sorry to inform you that I now want to believe in GW. Please be warm. I believe, I believe, I believe.

  54. poetSam says:

    Pam,

    Still hot in Tucson. “A man who is warm cannot understand a woman who is cold”. That is true in at least a couple of ways.

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