03/07/1956 Global peak oil by 2000
06/11/1986 Global Temperatures are predicted to increase an additional 3 or 4 degrees sometime between 2010 and 2020.
As of 2021 according to the Satellite Record UAH 6.0, Global temperatures are less than .5 degree Celsius warmer than in 1986.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1986/to:2021/plot/uah6/from:1986/to:2021/trend
Even using the potentially contaminated HADCRUT4 it’s less than one degree.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2021/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2021/trend
01/01/2021 Global Temperatures are predicted to increase an additional 3 or 4 degrees sometime between 2010 and 2020.
As of 2021 according to the Satellite Record UAH 6.0, Global temperatures are less than .5 degree Celsius warmer than in 1986.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/uah6/from:1986/to:2021/plot/uah6/from:1986/to:2021/trend
Even using the potentially contaminated HADCRUT4 it’s less than one degree.
https://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2021/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1986/to:2021/trend
01/01/2000 Global peak oil by 2000
08/03/1966 Oil May Run Out in Ten Years
Oil did not run out in 1976. Production kept increasing.
08/03/1976 Oil May Run Out in Ten Years
Oil did not run out in 1976. Production kept increasing.
07/01/1967 1967: ‘Dire famine by 1975.’
As of 1975 and even 2023, no global famine has occurred.
07/01/1975 1967: ‘Dire famine by 1975.’
As of 1975 and even 2023, no global famine has occurred.
01/14/1980 Overpopulation Will Overtake the World
Paul Ehrlich Published The Population Bomb in 1968
The widespread famines predicted for the 1970’s never occurred nor did most of the apocalyptic predictions for the 80’s. Too this day, Ehrlich states that all his work was based on peer-reviewed science and therefore his work is above reproach.
01/14/1968 Overpopulation Will Overtake the World
Paul Ehrlich Published The Population Bomb in 1968
The widespread famines predicted for the 1970’s never occurred nor did most of the apocalyptic predictions for the 80’s. Too this day, Ehrlich states that all his work was based on peer-reviewed science and therefore his work is above reproach.
04/14/1967 ‘Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989
New York Times
As of August 1989, we were apparently extremely lucky and did not dissolve into a cloud of blue steam.
As of 2023 that continues to be the case.
04/14/1989 ‘Everyone will disappear in a cloud of blue steam by 1989
New York Times
As of August 1989, we were apparently extremely lucky and did not dissolve into a cloud of blue steam.
As of 2023 that continues to be the case.
04/22/1970 Land Will Be Unusable And People Will Have to Wear Gas Masks
“In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution,” reported Life magazine in 1970. “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable,” said ecologist Kenneth Watt.
As nebulous as this prediction was, there is no buildup of Nitrogen or nitrogen compounds in the atmosphere and crop production is at an all time high.
https://www.humanprogress.org/india-sets-new-wheat-production-record/
04/22/2023 Land Will Be Unusable And People Will Have to Wear Gas Masks
“In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution,” reported Life magazine in 1970. “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable,” said ecologist Kenneth Watt.
As nebulous as this prediction was, there is no buildup of Nitrogen or nitrogen compounds in the atmosphere and crop production is at an all time high.
https://www.humanprogress.org/india-sets-new-wheat-production-record/
04/22/1970 The River Fish Will All Die
Barry Commoner was an American biologist and educator who warned of the environmental threats posed by modern technology since the 1950s. One of his predictions was that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.
People are still fishing in waters all across the US.
04/22/2023 The River Fish Will All Die
Barry Commoner was an American biologist and educator who warned of the environmental threats posed by modern technology since the 1950s. One of his predictions was that decaying organic pollutants would use up all of the oxygen in America’s rivers, causing freshwater fish to suffocate.
People are still fishing in waters all across the US.
04/16/1970 New Ice Age by the 21st Century
Boston Globe
As of January 1st 2001, the world has not entered into a new ice age.
As of 2023, still no ice age.
01/01/2001 New Ice Age by the 21st Century
Boston Globe
As of January 1st 2001, the world has not entered into a new ice age.
As of 2023, still no ice age.
10/06/1980 The Oceans Will be Dead and America will be Subject to Water and Food Rationing by 1974 and 1980
Paul Ehrlich Redlands Daily Facts
As of 1980, the oceans did not die and the USA was not subject to food rationing or water rationing.
As of 2023, except for some minor short term government induced water rationing in California in some dry periods there has not been water or food rationing in the United States.
Lake Erie has also has bounced back from the dead although it does suffer from pollution from surrounding agricultural and municipal runoff.
01/01/1980 The Oceans Will be Dead and America will be Subject to Water and Food Rationing by 1974 and 1980
Paul Ehrlich Redlands Daily Facts
As of 1980, the oceans did not die and the USA was not subject to food rationing or water rationing.
As of 2023, except for some minor short term government induced water rationing in California in some dry periods there has not been water or food rationing in the United States.
Lake Erie has also has bounced back from the dead although it does suffer from pollution from surrounding agricultural and municipal runoff.
07/09/1971 US Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming
Washington Post
As of 2023 there is no sign of dust reducing incoming sunlight and an impending ice age.
Eight more years to reach the full failure of this prediction.
04/09/2023 US Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming
Washington Post
As of 2023 there is no sign of dust reducing incoming sunlight and an impending ice age.
Eight more years to reach the full failure of this prediction.
09/16/1971 England Will Not Exist in the Year 2000
As of 2023, the UK still exists and is no longer part of the European Union.
09/16/2000 England Will Not Exist in the Year 2000
As of 2023, the UK still exists and is no longer part of the European Union.
05/01/1972 US Oil Supplies Will Only Last Through 1992
US Oil production did not die in 1992, nor after the shale revolution has it died as of today. Today’s limitations are due to regulatory barriers, not resource availability.
05/01/1992 US Oil Supplies Will Only Last Through 1992
US Oil production did not die in 1992, nor after the shale revolution has it died as of today. Today’s limitations are due to regulatory barriers, not resource availability.
12/03/1972 New Ice Age and Global Deterioration of the Climate is Coming
Predictions of an impending ice age made in 1972 with the forecast date being “due very soon” and “bring glacial temperatures in about a century” do not by definition falsifiable yet.
We’ll keep watching.
12/03/2023 New Ice Age and Global Deterioration of the Climate is Coming
Predictions of an impending ice age made in 1972 with the forecast date being “due very soon” and “bring glacial temperatures in about a century” do not by definition falsifiable yet.
We’ll keep watching.
01/29/1974 Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
2023, no Ice Age yet. Mixed signs of warming and cooling.
01/29/2023 Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
2023, no Ice Age yet. Mixed signs of warming and cooling.
06/24/1974 Another Ice Age Coming?
TIME Magazine
2023, no Ice Age yet. Mixed signs of warming and cooling.
06/24/2023 Another Ice Age Coming?
TIME Magazine
2023, no Ice Age yet. Mixed signs of warming and cooling.
06/24/1974 Ozone Depletion Great Peril to Life
Kingsport News
But no such ‘great peril to life’ has been observed as the ozone remains as of 2017:
06/24/1989 Ozone Depletion Great Peril to Life
Kingsport News
But no such ‘great peril to life’ has been observed as the ozone remains as of 2017:
04/28/1975 New Ice Age Will Cause Droughts and Affect Grain-exporting Countries
There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.
The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree – a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.
To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”
As in other predictions of an impending Ice Age, no near time date is given. So we are still watching.
Eventually it will probably happen hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of years from now.
04/28/2023 New Ice Age Will Cause Droughts and Affect Grain-exporting Countries
There are ominous signs that the Earth’s weather patterns have begun to change dramatically and that these changes may portend a drastic decline in food production – with serious political implications for just about every nation on Earth. The drop in food output could begin quite soon, perhaps only 10 years from now. The regions destined to feel its impact are the great wheat-producing lands of Canada and the U.S.S.R. in the North, along with a number of marginally self-sufficient tropical areas – parts of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indochina and Indonesia – where the growing season is dependent upon the rains brought by the monsoon.
The evidence in support of these predictions has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it. In England, farmers have seen their growing season decline by about two weeks since 1950, with a resultant overall loss in grain production estimated at up to 100,000 tons annually. During the same time, the average temperature around the equator has risen by a fraction of a degree – a fraction that in some areas can mean drought and desolation. Last April, in the most devastating outbreak of tornadoes ever recorded, 148 twisters killed more than 300 people and caused half a billion dollars’ worth of damage in 13 U.S. states.
To scientists, these seemingly disparate incidents represent the advance signs of fundamental changes in the world’s weather. The central fact is that after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the earth’s climate seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century. If the climatic change is as profound as some of the pessimists fear, the resulting famines could be catastrophic. “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.”
As in other predictions of an impending Ice Age, no near time date is given. So we are still watching.
Eventually it will probably happen hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of years from now.
07/18/1976 The Cooling Will Cause Famines
As in other predictions of an impending Ice Age, no near time date is given. So we are still watching.
Eventually it will probably happen hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of years from now.
07/18/2023 The Cooling Will Cause Famines
As in other predictions of an impending Ice Age, no near time date is given. So we are still watching.
Eventually it will probably happen hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of years from now.
04/19/1977 Oil production will likely peak by the early 1990’s
“As a nation, Americans have been reluctant to accept the prospect of physical shortages. We must recognize that world oil production will likely peak in the early 1990’s, and from that point on will be on a declining curve. By the early part of the 21st century, we must face the prospect of running out of oil and natural gas.”
— 1977 US Department of Energy Organization Act
World Oil production did not peak in the 90’s nor has it peaked since.
04/19/2015 Oil production will likely peak by the early 1990’s
“As a nation, Americans have been reluctant to accept the prospect of physical shortages. We must recognize that world oil production will likely peak in the early 1990’s, and from that point on will be on a declining curve. By the early part of the 21st century, we must face the prospect of running out of oil and natural gas.”
— 1977 US Department of Energy Organization Act
World Oil production did not peak in the 90’s nor has it peaked since.
01/05/1978 No End in Sight to 30 Year Cooling Trend
But according to NASA satellite data there is a slight warming trend since 1979
01/05/2023 No End in Sight to 30 Year Cooling Trend
But according to NASA satellite data there is a slight warming trend since 1979
04/14/1980 Acid Rain Will Kill all Lake Life
But 10 years later, the US government program formed to study acid rain concluded:
04/14/1990 Acid Rain Will Kill all Lake Life
But 10 years later, the US government program formed to study acid rain concluded:
06/24/1988 Global Warming Will Cause Droughts
But the last really dry year in the Midwest was 1988, and recent years have been record wet.
06/24/2020 Global Warming Will Cause Droughts
But the last really dry year in the Midwest was 1988, and recent years have been record wet.
09/26/1988 Maldives Completed Flooded by 2018. Out of Drinking Water by 1992
As of 1992, drinking water supplies did not dry up in the Maldives the Indian Ocean did not completely cover the Maldives in 2018.
In 2022 the Maldives opened a new International Airport. https://maldives-magazine.com/news/maldives-new-madivaru-airport-ready-for-2022.htm
Seven new major resorts are scheduled to open in 2023.
09/26/2018 Maldives Completed Flooded by 2018. Out of Drinking Water by 1992
As of 1992, drinking water supplies did not dry up in the Maldives the Indian Ocean did not completely cover the Maldives in 2018.
In 2022 the Maldives opened a new International Airport. https://maldives-magazine.com/news/maldives-new-madivaru-airport-ready-for-2022.htm
Seven new major resorts are scheduled to open in 2023.
09/26/1992 Maldives Completed Flooded by 2018. Out of Drinking Water by 1992
As of 1992, drinking water supplies did not dry up in the Maldives the Indian Ocean did not completely cover the Maldives in 2018.
In 2022 the Maldives opened a new International Airport. https://maldives-magazine.com/news/maldives-new-madivaru-airport-ready-for-2022.htm
Seven new major resorts are scheduled to open in 2023.
12/12/1988 Washington DC days over 90F to from 35 to 85
But the number of hot days in the DC area peaked in 1911, and have been declining ever since.
12/12/2017 Washington DC days over 90F to from 35 to 85
But the number of hot days in the DC area peaked in 1911, and have been declining ever since.
10/23/2001 West Side Highway Will be Underwater Within 30 Years
Source: Salon.com, October 23, 2001
As of 2019, the tail end of the prediction, the West Side Highway is still not underwater.
04/14/2019 West Side Highway Will be Underwater Within 30 Years
Source: Salon.com, October 23, 2001
As of 2019, the tail end of the prediction, the West Side Highway is still not underwater.
06/30/1989 Rising seas to ‘obliterate’ nations by 2000
Sea level rise continues at the same rate it has for the last 200 years.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/06/the-clever-ruse-of-rising-sea-levels
06/30/2000 Rising seas to ‘obliterate’ nations by 2000
Sea level rise continues at the same rate it has for the last 200 years.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/12/06/the-clever-ruse-of-rising-sea-levels
04/14/1995 Climate Models Have Been Accurate
04/14/2023 Climate Models Have Been Accurate
01/01/1996 Peak oil likely by 2020
“Unfortunately, oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining. Without a change, developing countries will ultimately be left in the dark, and developed countries will struggle to keep the lights on. Conflict is inevitable. My guess is that this won’t become a big issue unless there is a thalidomide event. We will have to see in the rear-view mirror that we are past the peak in worldwide oil production.”
— Richard Smalley, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996
https://gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354
World Oil production did not peak in by the year 2020 although it has leveled off amidst economic slowdown and anti-fossil fuel policies enacted in Western nations.
01/01/2020 Peak oil likely by 2020
“Unfortunately, oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining. Without a change, developing countries will ultimately be left in the dark, and developed countries will struggle to keep the lights on. Conflict is inevitable. My guess is that this won’t become a big issue unless there is a thalidomide event. We will have to see in the rear-view mirror that we are past the peak in worldwide oil production.”
— Richard Smalley, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996
https://gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354
World Oil production did not peak in by the year 2020 although it has leveled off amidst economic slowdown and anti-fossil fuel policies enacted in Western nations.
03/30/2000 Children Won’t Know What Snow Is
It continues to snow as much as in previous decades. California may be setting all time snow records in the 2023 season.
03/30/2023 Children Won’t Know What Snow Is
It continues to snow as much as in previous decades. California may be setting all time snow records in the 2023 season.
World Oil production did not peak in by the year 2010 nor has it peaked since.
World Oil production did not peak in by the year 2010 nor has it peaked since.
12/30/2002 Famine Can Only Be Avoided if the Rich Give Up Meat
Since 2000, global hunger has been reduced by a quarter, child mortality by half and extreme poverty by no less than 70 percent, despite the devastating effects of the pandemic and a worldwide lockdown. Clearly, global capitalism has delivered – at least compared to every other era of human history.
https://www.humanprogress.org/open-the-story-of-human-progress/
12/30/2023 Famine Can Only Be Avoided if the Rich Give Up Meat
Since 2000, global hunger has been reduced by a quarter, child mortality by half and extreme poverty by no less than 70 percent, despite the devastating effects of the pandemic and a worldwide lockdown. Clearly, global capitalism has delivered – at least compared to every other era of human history.
https://www.humanprogress.org/open-the-story-of-human-progress/
04/22/1970 By 1995 75 to 80 Percent of All Species Will be Extinct.
04/22/1995 By 1995 75 to 80 Percent of All Species Will be Extinct.
02/21/2004 Britain Plunged Into Siberian Climate By 2020
In the year 2020, Britain continued to have normal seasons.
02/21/2020 Britain Plunged Into Siberian Climate By 2020
In the year 2020, Britain continued to have normal seasons.
04/14/2008 Adelaide May Run Out of Water by Early 2009
BY December 2008 Adelaide’s reservoirs were 75% full, Perth’s 40%, Sydney’s 63%, and Brisbane’s reservoir’s were 46% full.
BY 2009 dams for Brisbane, Canberra and Sydney were filled to overflowing.
And more recently, historical flooding in 2022
https://appliedsciences.nasa.gov/what-we-do/disasters/disasters-activations/australia-floods-2022
04/14/2009 Adelaide May Run Out of Water by Early 2009
BY December 2008 Adelaide’s reservoirs were 75% full, Perth’s 40%, Sydney’s 63%, and Brisbane’s reservoir’s were 46% full.
BY 2009 dams for Brisbane, Canberra and Sydney were filled to overflowing.
And more recently, historical flooding in 2022
https://appliedsciences.nasa.gov/what-we-do/disasters/disasters-activations/australia-floods-2022
12/11/2007 Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions
The Associated Press reports that melting in the Artic has surpassing previous estimates, prompting scientist to issue new warnings.
- “The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colo.
- NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
AP
Ominous Arctic Melt Worries Experts
By SETH BORENSTEIN –
WASHINGTON (AP) — An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer, a warning sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point. One even speculated that summer sea ice would be gone in five years.
Greenland’s ice sheet melted nearly 19 billion tons more than the previous high mark, and the volume of Arctic sea ice at summer’s end was half what it was just four years earlier, according to new NASA satellite data obtained by The Associated Press.
“The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colo.
Just last year, two top scientists surprised their colleagues by projecting that the Arctic sea ice was melting so rapidly that it could disappear entirely by the summer of 2040.
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/globalwarming/resources/articles_id=0018.html
While Arctic sea ice did hit a minimum in 2012 it has largely recovered and has been stable for the last decade.
12/11/2012 Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions
The Associated Press reports that melting in the Artic has surpassing previous estimates, prompting scientist to issue new warnings.
- “The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colo.
- NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
AP
Ominous Arctic Melt Worries Experts
By SETH BORENSTEIN –
WASHINGTON (AP) — An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer, a warning sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point. One even speculated that summer sea ice would be gone in five years.
Greenland’s ice sheet melted nearly 19 billion tons more than the previous high mark, and the volume of Arctic sea ice at summer’s end was half what it was just four years earlier, according to new NASA satellite data obtained by The Associated Press.
“The Arctic is screaming,” said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colo.
Just last year, two top scientists surprised their colleagues by projecting that the Arctic sea ice was melting so rapidly that it could disappear entirely by the summer of 2040.
This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”
https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/globalwarming/resources/articles_id=0018.html
While Arctic sea ice did hit a minimum in 2012 it has largely recovered and has been stable for the last decade.
12/12/2007 Arctic Summer Ice-Free “by 2013”
While Arctic sea ice did hit a minimum in 2012 it has largely recovered and has been stable for the last decade.
12/12/2013 Arctic Summer Ice-Free “by 2013”
While Arctic sea ice did hit a minimum in 2012 it has largely recovered and has been stable for the last decade.
05/01/2005 Fifty million climate refugees by 2010
Fifty million climate refugees by 2010. Today we find a world of asymmetric development, unsustainable natural resource use, and continued rural and urban poverty. There is general agreement about the current global environmental and development crisis. It is also known that the consequences of these global changes have the most devastating impacts on the poorest, who historically have had limited entitlements and opportunities for growth.
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
Despite frivolous claims attributing anything to Climate Change, in 2023, there is still no mass migration of climate refugees, or any climate refugees for that matter.
05/01/2010 Fifty million climate refugees by 2010
Fifty million climate refugees by 2010. Today we find a world of asymmetric development, unsustainable natural resource use, and continued rural and urban poverty. There is general agreement about the current global environmental and development crisis. It is also known that the consequences of these global changes have the most devastating impacts on the poorest, who historically have had limited entitlements and opportunities for growth.
| Sources | Norman Myers, ‘Environmental refugees, An emergent security issue’, 13. Economic forum, Prague, OSCE, May 2005 ; Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005 ; Liser, 2007. |
Despite frivolous claims attributing anything to Climate Change, in 2023, there is still no mass migration of climate refugees, or any climate refugees for that matter.
While Arctic sea ice did hit a minimum in 2012 it has largely recovered and has been stable for the last decade.
While Arctic sea ice did hit a minimum in 2012 it has largely recovered and has been stable for the last decade.
06/12/2008 New York Engulfed By Rising Seas in 2015
As of 2015, New York City was not underwater and in 2023 we can confidently say that New York City is still not underwater.
06/12/2015 New York Engulfed By Rising Seas in 2015
As of 2015, New York City was not underwater and in 2023 we can confidently say that New York City is still not underwater.
12/16/2008 North Polar Ice Cap will be Ice Free in 2013
12/16/2013 North Polar Ice Cap will be Ice Free in 2013
07/09/2009 Only 8 Years to Save the World in 2009
As of both 2017 and 2023, the world is still here.
07/09/2017 Only 8 Years to Save the World in 2009
As of both 2017 and 2023, the world is still here.
10/20/2009 October 2009 Fifty Days to Save Planet from Catastrophe
No catastrophe in 2009, now, or on the current horizon.
https://www.humanprogress.org/india-sets-new-wheat-production-record/
12/15/2009 October 2009 Fifty Days to Save Planet from Catastrophe
No catastrophe in 2009, now, or on the current horizon.
https://www.humanprogress.org/india-sets-new-wheat-production-record/
12/14/2009 Polar Ice Cap May Disappear By Summer of 2014
Ice still there as of 2014 and Sea Ice still there as of 2023
12/14/2014 Polar Ice Cap May Disappear By Summer of 2014
Ice still there as of 2014 and Sea Ice still there as of 2023
07/08/2013 The World Could See as Many as 20 Additional Hurricanes and Tropical Storms by the End of the Century
While just over 20% of this century is over as of 2023, there has been no trend in hurricanes to date. In fact, not long after Emanuel’s prediction, the US broke the record for the longest Hurricane Drought in US history. The drought finally ended with Hurricane Irma in 2017.
https://www.livescience.com/50704-hurricane-drought.html
So while this prediction still has over 70 years to go, it’s not looking good at this time.
07/08/2023 The World Could See as Many as 20 Additional Hurricanes and Tropical Storms by the End of the Century
While just over 20% of this century is over as of 2023, there has been no trend in hurricanes to date. In fact, not long after Emanuel’s prediction, the US broke the record for the longest Hurricane Drought in US history. The drought finally ended with Hurricane Irma in 2017.
https://www.livescience.com/50704-hurricane-drought.html
So while this prediction still has over 70 years to go, it’s not looking good at this time.
07/24/2013 2013: Ice-Free Arctic in Two Years Due to Methane Catastrophe
Source: The Guardian, July 24, 2013
The paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02550-9 (open access)
Gas hydrate dissociation off Svalbard induced by isostatic rebound rather than global warming
Abstract
Methane seepage from the upper continental slopes of Western Svalbard has previously been attributed to gas hydrate dissociation induced by anthropogenic warming of ambient bottom waters. Here we show that sediment cores drilled off Prins Karls Foreland contain freshwater from dissociating hydrates. However, our modeling indicates that the observed pore water freshening began around 8 ka BP when the rate of isostatic uplift outpaced eustatic sea-level rise. The resultant local shallowing and lowering of hydrostatic pressure forced gas hydrate dissociation and dissolved chloride depletions consistent with our geochemical analysis. Hence, we propose that hydrate dissociation was triggered by postglacial isostatic rebound rather than anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, we show that methane fluxes from dissociating hydrates were considerably smaller than present methane seepage rates implying that gas hydrates were not a major source of methane to the oceans, but rather acted as a dynamic seal, regulating methane release from deep geological reservoirs.
12/24/2015 2013: Ice-Free Arctic in Two Years Due to Methane Catastrophe
Source: The Guardian, July 24, 2013
The paper: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-02550-9 (open access)
Gas hydrate dissociation off Svalbard induced by isostatic rebound rather than global warming
Abstract
Methane seepage from the upper continental slopes of Western Svalbard has previously been attributed to gas hydrate dissociation induced by anthropogenic warming of ambient bottom waters. Here we show that sediment cores drilled off Prins Karls Foreland contain freshwater from dissociating hydrates. However, our modeling indicates that the observed pore water freshening began around 8 ka BP when the rate of isostatic uplift outpaced eustatic sea-level rise. The resultant local shallowing and lowering of hydrostatic pressure forced gas hydrate dissociation and dissolved chloride depletions consistent with our geochemical analysis. Hence, we propose that hydrate dissociation was triggered by postglacial isostatic rebound rather than anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, we show that methane fluxes from dissociating hydrates were considerably smaller than present methane seepage rates implying that gas hydrates were not a major source of methane to the oceans, but rather acted as a dynamic seal, regulating methane release from deep geological reservoirs.
12/09/2013 Summer Ice Free Arctic By 2016
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There was still lots of ice in the summer of 2016 and beyond.
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11/08/2019 Emperor Penguin numbers will dramatically drop by the year 2100 unless climate targets are met
The emperor penguin will vanish from Antarctica in the next century unless climate change is halted, according to new research.
The majestic bird – that featured in the hit documentary March of the Penguins – could join the Dodo, the Tasmanian Tiger and more recently the Western Black Rhino on the extinct list if the sea ice melts around the frozen continent.
…
Scientist Dr Michelle LaRue, a lecturer of Antarctic marine science at University of Canterbury who co-authored the paper, said there are currently 250,000 breeding pairs but the numbers will dramatically drop by the year 2100, unless climate targets are met.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/117284119/emperor-penguins-marching-to-extinction-unless-climate-targets-met
As of the spring of 2023, new colonies of previously unknown emperor penguins are being discovered.
https://www.livescience.com/satellites-reveal-emperor-penguin-colony-antarctica
And researchers are still trying to figure out how many pairs are in Antarctica.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/antarctic-expedition-returns-mission-fix-population-emperor-penguins-180971324/
.
11/08/2023 Emperor Penguin numbers will dramatically drop by the year 2100 unless climate targets are met
The emperor penguin will vanish from Antarctica in the next century unless climate change is halted, according to new research.
The majestic bird – that featured in the hit documentary March of the Penguins – could join the Dodo, the Tasmanian Tiger and more recently the Western Black Rhino on the extinct list if the sea ice melts around the frozen continent.
…
Scientist Dr Michelle LaRue, a lecturer of Antarctic marine science at University of Canterbury who co-authored the paper, said there are currently 250,000 breeding pairs but the numbers will dramatically drop by the year 2100, unless climate targets are met.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/117284119/emperor-penguins-marching-to-extinction-unless-climate-targets-met
As of the spring of 2023, new colonies of previously unknown emperor penguins are being discovered.
https://www.livescience.com/satellites-reveal-emperor-penguin-colony-antarctica
And researchers are still trying to figure out how many pairs are in Antarctica.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/antarctic-expedition-returns-mission-fix-population-emperor-penguins-180971324/
.
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