UPDATE: Contrail Science writes:
Note to the media – since this was almost certainly Flight AWE808 (US Airways) from Hawaii to Phoenix, why not have a camera crew somewhere in the vicinity (does not need to be exact, or a chopper), at around 5-5:30 today, and if the weather is right you’ll see the same trail again.
Here’s the flight path below for 11/8/10. If anybody gets any new photos today, leave a comment and I’ll get them posted here.
Original post starts below:
There’s quite a buzz in the blogosphere about this video shot by a KCBS News helicopter. Explanations range from “Moonbeam Gov. Jerry Brown is headed home to visit relatives” to “missile launch kept secret by the Pentagon”.
Whatever it is, I’ve seen nothing like it. The speed doesn’t match a missile, but the trajectory and cloud pattern certainly seems to. Perhaps our readers can help figure this out. One alert reader “slp” posted in comments a link to a likely Occams Razor style explanation.
watch the video:
For people outside the USA that may not be able to see the first video, try this one:
For reference, here’s a certified missile shot from the Air Force Space Command:
I’m wondering if this isn’t some stunt plane practicing over the ocean (where the pilot doesn’t have to worry about buildings, power lines, towers, guy wires, FAA airspace permissions, etc.) with a smoke generator turned on? Watch this video from about 15-20 seconds in. That looks like what the “missile” video is. Add some red sunset lighting and you’ve got instant “slow moving missile”.
UPDATE: Thanks to alert reader “slp” who wrote: “Likely a contrail:”
Indeed it looks very much like this jet contrail seen off San Clemente, from Contrail Science Overflow, excerpted below:
Jet contrails from some angles look like missile trails
An interesting contrail cropped up off the coast of San Clemente, Orange County, California on December 31st 2009. The curious shape led some people to think it’s a missile launch, which it does kind of look like (all taken from San Clemente)
“Missile-like” contrail. Note this is the Dec 31st contrail, not the Nov 8th CBS one. That’s at the bottom of the post.
…
This view is from Corona del Mar, about 20 miles Northeast of San Clemente:
Here’s a similar photo (of a different contrail, obviously) on the same day at the other side of the country:
Not a missile launch.
…
Here’s the idea with math:
The idea that it’s a missile launch comes from three misconceptions. Firstly that the trail is vertical – it’s not, it’s a horizontal trail, at around 32,000 feet (about six miles). It’s the same as this:
This contrail is no more vertical than the road is, and nor are the power lines at 45 degrees. Everything is horizontal – it’s the just the angle you are viewing it from. All of these show horizontal contrails.
Secondly there’s the misconception of direction, that it’s flying away from the viewer, when it’s actually flying towards the viewer. This is because the “base” of the contrail seems wider than the tip. Perspective tells the brain that this mean the base is closer. But actually you can see the base has been greatly spread by the wind. Since it’s still so far away the effects of perspective are greatly diminished, meaning the actual width of the contrail is what is creating the illusion. Imagine is a plane with a 100 mile long spreading contrail were coming towards you; what would it look like? It would look exactly like this.
Thirdly there’s the idea that it goes all the way down to the ground. Now that might be true if the Earth was flat, but the Earth is round, and things go beneath the horizon eventually, no matter how high they are. A plane 200 miles away but five miles up is always below the horizon. If the horizon is raised (as it is here, with Catalina Island), then the distance is less. Here’s some math:
This diagram is not to scale, but the math is the same regardless. The solid curved line is the surface of the earth. The dot at the top is San Clemente. The little triangle is Catalina. “d” is the distance to Catalina (d=35 miles). “c” the amount of Catalina that is visible above the horizon (c=0.05 miles, really a bit more, but let’s be conservative). “a” is the altitude of the plane, (a = 6 miles). “r” is the radius of the earth (r=3963 miles).
The green wavy line is the contrail. Notice it’s at a fixed height above the surface of the earth, and is going directly towards the OC.
The point labeled (0,0) is the center of the earth. (0,0) means X=0, Y=0, where X is horizontal and Y is vertical. What we want to know is how far away the plane is, the value x. We do this with cartesian geometry, noting that the lowest visible point of the trail is at the intersection of the dotted line, which is a circle of radius (r+a), hence the equation x^2 + y^2 = (r+a)^2 and the line labeled “sight line”, which is has the equation y=x*c/d. Combining these equations to solve for x yields a quadratic equation, which we can solve with Wolfram Alpha:
intersection of (y=r+x*c/d) and (x^2+y^2 = (r+a)^2)
and with the real numbers:
intersection of (y=r+x*c/d) and (x^2+y^2 = (r+a)^2) where a=6 and d=35 and c=0.05 and r=3963
Which gives x = 212, meaning that the bottom of the contrail is around 200 miles away. So if the front of the contrail (the actual aircraft) is somewhere above and behind catalina, then that means the contrail is over 100 miles long. At 500 mph, that means it could have formed in 12-15 minutes, which seems consistent with the descriptions in the discussion above. (feel free to play around with the numbers there to see the affect of various assumptions)
Full post here: Jet contrails from some angles look like missile trails
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You’re all wrong [I think]. It’s not a plane, ICBM or SLBM., It’s a navy surface to air missile:
Standard Missile can refer to a family of several different American missiles:
* RIM-66 Standard (SM-1MR/SM-2MR), a medium range surface-to-air missile, the successor of the RIM-24 Tartar missile.
* RIM-67 Standard (SM-1ER/SM-2ER non-VLS capable), an extended range surface-to-air missile, the successor of the RIM-2 Terrier missile
* AGM-78 Standard ARM, an air launched anti-radiation missile
* RIM-156 Standard Extended Range Block IV (SM-2ER VLS capable), an extended range surface-to-air missile
* RIM-161 Standard missile 3 (SM-3), a naval launched anti-ballistic missile, based on SM-2ER Block IV
* RIM-174 Standard ERAM (SM-6), an upgraded version of the SM-2 under development designed to target both aircraft and high performance cruise missiles
I forgot to add that the color of the light may be misleading. A digital camera has to compute a white balance and can get it wrong.
If you look closely at the “contrail” you will observe gases in spiral, as originated in a turbine.
Problem solved!…Now, to the next post!
Some great white tried to shoot down a plane because the wanted some human food but did not want to cause trouble for themselves or it is a contrail
You are all wrong. Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. I, and I alone, have the answer. It was the last sane CEO of a manufacturing company getting the heck outta Cali. 😉
Contrailscience.com says”
The most likely flight is US Aiways flight 808 from Hawaii to Phoenix.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/AWE808
Why it must be a contrail:
— At sunset the bottom of the pillar of exhaust is lit up just as brightly as the rest of it, indicating that it is not at ground level.
— At sunset the part of the pillar that is (allegedly) the highest (if it were a rocket) is getting darker than the rest of it, indicating an EAST-ward progression (not upwards).
— Exhaust trails from rockets go through many different layers of earths atmosphere that are blowing at different directions and different speeds. The result of this is a smoke trail that gets as distorted as it possibly can and ends up looking like this:
http://www.nationalufocenter.com/artman/uploads/33tamparocketclouds.jpg
or this:
http://www.astrocalculator.com/Images/MinotaurRocketLaunchPlume_b.JPG
The trail in the video is STRAIGHT and tends to remain so, which indicates flight at a relatively stable altitude.
I have some questions for the contrail believers. If this was a plane coming over the horizon how does the contrail appear to be in front of the distant clouds? Was the plane ascending? Absent these answers I will have to fall into the contrail skeptic camp.
When the military does missile testing, like the SLBM launch that some speculate was the culprit, there is a notice to airmen (NOTAM) and a notice to mariners (NOTMAR) issued advising ships and aircraft of a threat to their passage. These declarations specify closure areas at the launch site, at the impact site, and wherever boosters may drops. The launches are preceded by ships or aircraft conducting area clearance to ensure that the closure areas are in fact safe.
All militaries do it like this, even the rogue states (sometimes). In addition to protecting innocent passage through the seas, this notification process is rigorously adhered to so by the major powers so that the nuclear armed states are not surprised by an unexpected missile popping up on their early warning radars.
If there are no closure areas promulgated through NOTMARs and NOTAMs, etc., and evidenced by aircraft providing a safety clearance, the answer likely lies elsewhere.
Nice read:
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/29770
Example of wing vortices shown in contrails. (Many more at that website…)
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Unknown/Airbus-A330-2…/0569626/L/
I’ve watched many high-altitude aircraft through my telescope (which isn’t easy!). In the evenings when the planes are still lit by the sun, at high magnifications, they often look just like bright rockets leaving an exhaust plume. The visual illusion changes once you can get a better look and make out the wings and tail.
If its just a jet, why hasn’t the FAA come out immediately and say this was a jet. That high it surely would of been on radar, and by the seeming size of it, it was a large jet. Large enough to not be “unidentified”.
Long Shot possibility you might have to consider is that Mr Obama is currently in Asia, and just arrived in S. Korea. North Korea could be doing a show of force by sneaking a sub to our coast and launching one of MANY missiles they have been testing lately. Long shot indeed, but not outside the realm of possibility of North Korea. Afterall, they just got done sinking a warship, now it was the Americans turn to see a show of force from the peoples republic.
I think that is why the US govt is keep mum about it, especially the FAA.
I’m no expert on the Chinese Navy, but they rarely have any of their handful of SSBNs outside of territorial waters, and their are very easy to detect (noisy). I would certainly hope every single one of them is being shadowed by a US attack sub if they left Chinese territorial waters (and even if they didn’t), However I do know they have been ferverishly trying to develop better capabilities in the area as a retaitory weapon. Reminds me of the heady days of studying Cold War nuclear strategy in the 80s! Good times, good times… well not really. Terrorists suck but it’s a hell of lot less scary than total nuclear annihlation.
I certainly wouldn’t put this type of action past the Soviets, uh, I mean Russkies, either. North Korea certainly doesn not have anything close to the technology to pull this off.
I’m sure there is a reasonable explination, I really don’t think the Chinese are crazy enough to pull a stunt like this.
Where’s Dr. No? Someone needs to call James Bond.
Funny aspects to the story:
– Did the report bother to contact LAX to confirm the flight path of the plane; No.
– Did the reporter bother to investigate the origin of the launch; No.
The reporter convinced the newsroom to dump the video on air with the idea that they could then do the backgrounding with [wait for it] the Pentagon.
So, with the President abroad and the Fleet in tow, a California newsroom decides its a “good idea” to run an unconfirmed story of a missile launch on air.
California news is always entertaining.
Ockham’s razor, also spelled Occam’s razor, also called law of economy, or law of parsimony, principle stated by William of Ockham (1285–1347/49), a scholastic, that Pluralitas non est ponenda sine necessitate; “Plurality should not be posited without necessity.” The principle gives precedence to simplicity; of two competing theories, the simplest explanation of an entity is to be preferred. The principle is also expressed “Entities are not to be multiplied beyond necessity.”
It’s an airplane.
Just watched a show on History channel about USO’s….unidentified submersible objects….and that around Catalina Island is where the most obsevations of objects flying into and out of the sea are reported worldwide….
Ian H says:
November 10, 2010 at 12:58 am
wes george says:
November 9, 2010 at 7:13 pm
“If its just a contrail then how is the spiraling of the plume explained? Rockets have fins and can produce a twisting plume. Contrails cannot be twisted (corkscrewed.)”
A large airliner creates powerful vortices in the air through which it travels. There are two vortices – one from each wingtip – and they spiral in opposite directions. Contrails involve the air in the vortices and consequently do indeed appear to spiral.
Which is why when flying a small plane you maintain a good horizontal separation behind a large plane and stay above their wake on approach. You have to watch for wakes coming from above when near a busy airport the vortices are stronger when more lift is being generated by a climbing aircraft. Wakes drop at about 400 feet/min and level off about 900 ft below the plane’s path.
Also to keep in mind, along with the lack of response from the FAA still, on the very same day, after this event this headline came up : Obama cuts short Indonesia visit due to volcanic activity, proceeds to S. Korea in advance of G-20 Summit.
How about…….: After Mysterious Missile launch, POTUS flees Indonesia to nearest major U.S. Military Installation
hehe..I love fanning flames! Even if it was a Jet, the FAA needs to say so first. Till they identify a glowing jet, im gonna keep pushing it. I can see it being a jet though, but it would have to have a silver under body, I forgot the passenger jet that has those, I think its United or American Airlines…but again…if it was those…theyd have transponders. The FAA should of come out immediately.
With the Contrail Science Overflow ID:
Perhaps the discussion thread should change to tricks of perspective. Here are a couple notes:
The first time I saw a contrail that was a white cloud with a dark streak ahead of it was from a chairlift at Vail CO. I noticed that the contrail lay between me and the Sun. It took me a few seconds to convince myself that the dark streak was from the shadow of the contrail between where the Sun was and the airplane. The shadow meant that less sunlight was scattering off that part of the atmosphere and hence was darker than the fully illuminated air.
Baseball outfielders generally don’t run to the place where they expect a fly ball to land and stop there to wait for it, they prefer to be off to the side and get to the catch point just before the ball. By seeing it move across the visual field they have a much better idea of the trajectory. Likewise, being in line with flight AWE808 made it very hard to judge the direction of the plane, especially that the main distance cue, the broadening contrail, made the distant part appear to be the close part.
899 says:
November 9, 2010 at 5:02 pm
Sorry, I think you need to spend more time watching contrails, how they change with time, and how they scatter light, especially in different directions, e.g. the forward scatter seen here.
Also, in the dustfree upper atmosphere, air can often become supersaturated, apparently up to 200% or so. In those conditions contrail particles can grow into ice crystals big enough to fall as snow (but usually sublimate in dryer air layers long before reaching the ground.)
The debate is over; we now have a consensus:
AGW (Another Government Wizzbang)
Mark Bowlin says:
November 10, 2010 at 7:52 am
“When the military does missile testing, like the SLBM launch that some speculate was the culprit, there is a notice to airmen (NOTAM) and a notice to mariners (NOTMAR) issued advising ships and aircraft of a threat to their passage.”
You mean like on page 55 of this document?
http://164.214.12.45/MSISiteContent/StaticFiles/NAV_PUBS/UNTM/201045/NtM_45-2010.pdf
“434/10(18).
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC.
CALIFORNIA.
MISSILES.
1. INTERMITTENT MISSILE FIRING OPERATIONS 0001Z TO 2359Z
DAILY MONDAY THRU SUNDAY IN THE NAVAL AIR WARFARE CENTER
SEA RANGE. THE MAJORITY OF MISSILE FIRINGS TAKE PLACE
1400Z TO 2359Z AND 0001Z TO 0200Z DAILY MONDAY THRU FRIDAY
IN AREA BOUND BY
34-02N 119-04W, 33-52N 119-06W, 33-29N 118-37W,
33-20N 118-37W, 32-11N 120-16W, 31-54N 121-35W,
35-09N 123-39W, 35-29N 123-00W, 35-57N 121-32W,
34-04N 119-04W.”
It’s more of a blanket warning with no specific date. But laying out the position from the news program on a chart with the coords above, they match.
I found another shot of the missile, and it was a plane.
I was totally completely unequivocally wrong.. ..Again! haha.