UPDATE: Contrail Science writes:
Note to the media – since this was almost certainly Flight AWE808 (US Airways) from Hawaii to Phoenix, why not have a camera crew somewhere in the vicinity (does not need to be exact, or a chopper), at around 5-5:30 today, and if the weather is right you’ll see the same trail again.
Here’s the flight path below for 11/8/10. If anybody gets any new photos today, leave a comment and I’ll get them posted here.
Original post starts below:
There’s quite a buzz in the blogosphere about this video shot by a KCBS News helicopter. Explanations range from “Moonbeam Gov. Jerry Brown is headed home to visit relatives” to “missile launch kept secret by the Pentagon”.
Whatever it is, I’ve seen nothing like it. The speed doesn’t match a missile, but the trajectory and cloud pattern certainly seems to. Perhaps our readers can help figure this out. One alert reader “slp” posted in comments a link to a likely Occams Razor style explanation.
watch the video:
For people outside the USA that may not be able to see the first video, try this one:
For reference, here’s a certified missile shot from the Air Force Space Command:
I’m wondering if this isn’t some stunt plane practicing over the ocean (where the pilot doesn’t have to worry about buildings, power lines, towers, guy wires, FAA airspace permissions, etc.) with a smoke generator turned on? Watch this video from about 15-20 seconds in. That looks like what the “missile” video is. Add some red sunset lighting and you’ve got instant “slow moving missile”.
UPDATE: Thanks to alert reader “slp” who wrote: “Likely a contrail:”
Indeed it looks very much like this jet contrail seen off San Clemente, from Contrail Science Overflow, excerpted below:
Jet contrails from some angles look like missile trails
An interesting contrail cropped up off the coast of San Clemente, Orange County, California on December 31st 2009. The curious shape led some people to think it’s a missile launch, which it does kind of look like (all taken from San Clemente)
“Missile-like” contrail. Note this is the Dec 31st contrail, not the Nov 8th CBS one. That’s at the bottom of the post.
…
This view is from Corona del Mar, about 20 miles Northeast of San Clemente:
Here’s a similar photo (of a different contrail, obviously) on the same day at the other side of the country:
Not a missile launch.
…
Here’s the idea with math:
The idea that it’s a missile launch comes from three misconceptions. Firstly that the trail is vertical – it’s not, it’s a horizontal trail, at around 32,000 feet (about six miles). It’s the same as this:
This contrail is no more vertical than the road is, and nor are the power lines at 45 degrees. Everything is horizontal – it’s the just the angle you are viewing it from. All of these show horizontal contrails.
Secondly there’s the misconception of direction, that it’s flying away from the viewer, when it’s actually flying towards the viewer. This is because the “base” of the contrail seems wider than the tip. Perspective tells the brain that this mean the base is closer. But actually you can see the base has been greatly spread by the wind. Since it’s still so far away the effects of perspective are greatly diminished, meaning the actual width of the contrail is what is creating the illusion. Imagine is a plane with a 100 mile long spreading contrail were coming towards you; what would it look like? It would look exactly like this.
Thirdly there’s the idea that it goes all the way down to the ground. Now that might be true if the Earth was flat, but the Earth is round, and things go beneath the horizon eventually, no matter how high they are. A plane 200 miles away but five miles up is always below the horizon. If the horizon is raised (as it is here, with Catalina Island), then the distance is less. Here’s some math:
This diagram is not to scale, but the math is the same regardless. The solid curved line is the surface of the earth. The dot at the top is San Clemente. The little triangle is Catalina. “d” is the distance to Catalina (d=35 miles). “c” the amount of Catalina that is visible above the horizon (c=0.05 miles, really a bit more, but let’s be conservative). “a” is the altitude of the plane, (a = 6 miles). “r” is the radius of the earth (r=3963 miles).
The green wavy line is the contrail. Notice it’s at a fixed height above the surface of the earth, and is going directly towards the OC.
The point labeled (0,0) is the center of the earth. (0,0) means X=0, Y=0, where X is horizontal and Y is vertical. What we want to know is how far away the plane is, the value x. We do this with cartesian geometry, noting that the lowest visible point of the trail is at the intersection of the dotted line, which is a circle of radius (r+a), hence the equation x^2 + y^2 = (r+a)^2 and the line labeled “sight line”, which is has the equation y=x*c/d. Combining these equations to solve for x yields a quadratic equation, which we can solve with Wolfram Alpha:
intersection of (y=r+x*c/d) and (x^2+y^2 = (r+a)^2)
and with the real numbers:
intersection of (y=r+x*c/d) and (x^2+y^2 = (r+a)^2) where a=6 and d=35 and c=0.05 and r=3963
Which gives x = 212, meaning that the bottom of the contrail is around 200 miles away. So if the front of the contrail (the actual aircraft) is somewhere above and behind catalina, then that means the contrail is over 100 miles long. At 500 mph, that means it could have formed in 12-15 minutes, which seems consistent with the descriptions in the discussion above. (feel free to play around with the numbers there to see the affect of various assumptions)
Full post here: Jet contrails from some angles look like missile trails
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I don’t have any knowledge of what happened, but if it was a rocket, it should have left a radar trail on the LAX and other southern California airport radars. The military facilities in Long Beach, Camp Pendleton, San Diego and elsewhere should also have had their radar turned on, as well as naval ships in the area.
Does anyone know if it was visible on radar?? Were there any visual sightings from aircraft in the area??
This site has a discussion of optical illusion geometry
http://uncinus.wordpress.com/2010/11/09/4/
“Also do you honestly think that any plane can fly within 35 miles of LA and NOT be on the LAX and military’s radar in this post 9/11 world?”
That would be on a number of tower radars, shipboard radars, and probably more than one satellite. It’s about 3 minutes (sub-sonic) away from a number of military bases and civilian airports. You betcha it was noticed.
It isn’t international water by a longshot there either. Someone said something about a Chinese boomer making a statement in international water. That close to big U.S. military bases and civilian population centers would be a very very aggressive statement.
Homemade rocket-powered plane launched from a boat?
By an inventive entrepreneur trying to catch up to Virgin Galactic?
Or bored engineering students trying to challenge themselves?
ABC News (US) had on an “expert” who was saying it might have been a covert ICBM test, launched from a submarine. A “show of force” while President Obama is on his Asia tour. Sure, why not show Iran, North Korea, and China just how tough the US still is! ☺
OT:
Thinning ozone could be leaving whales sunburned
By RAPHAEL G. SATTER, Associated Press Writer Raphael G. Satter, Associated Press Writer – Tue Nov 9, 7:08 pm ET
LONDON – The thinning ozone layer could be leaving the world’s whales scarred from severe sunburn, experts said Wednesday.
A study of whales in the Gulf of California over the past few years shows that the sea-going mammals carry blisters and other damage typically associated with the skin damage that humans suffer from exposure to the ultraviolet radiation. That makes it yet another threat for the already endangered animals to worry about.
Whales would be particularly vulnerable to sunburn in part because they need to spend extended periods of time on the ocean’s surface to breathe, socialize, and feed their young. Since they don’t have fur or feathers, that effectively means they sunbathe naked. (…)
As Laura Martinez-Levasseur, the study’s lead author, put it: “Humans can put on clothes or sunglasses — whales can’t.”
Martinez-Levasseur, who works at Zoological Society of London, spent three years studying whales in the Gulf of California, the teeming body of water which separates Baja California from the Mexican mainland.
Photographs were taken of the whales to chart any visible damage, and small samples — taken with a crossbow-fired dart — were collected to examine the state of their skin cells.
Her study, published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B, seemed to confirm suspicions first raised by one of her whale-watching colleagues: The beasts were showing lesions associated with sun damage, and many of their skin samples revealed patterns of dead cells associated with exposure to UV radiation.
====
Perhaps the mystery missile was an angry whale?
Similar in attitude and altitude maybe.
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2010/05/28/ufo-newfoundland-dnd.html
We had a very similar scenario here in Canada last winter. I don’t know if it was ever officially resolved, but I read and saw demonstrated really good evidence and examples backed by photos and the point Anthony illustrates about the Earth’s curvature. In our case the speculation was about the French Navy and their nearby terreritory.
I don’t know what I’m seeing with any certainty in this video and don’t want to overstate their similarities either – one’s a vibrant video with points of reference, one a collection of photos and descriptions if I recall. Youtube has some references for searchers of ‘newfoundland ufo’ and I’ll include some coverage by the CTV here.
Was it China who threatened us during the 1990’s with exploding a nuclear device in LA harbor if they felt like it and no one could stop them. Considering all their merchant ships being unloaded, which one has the device? I believe China made their point.
Iron Man?
Jet Contrail my ass. Where are the wings?
Hmmmm.
@ur momisugly Anthony
“REPLY: I think the “glow” was sunlight reflecting off the fuselage. With the sun below the horizon, an object like an aluminum aircraft body would be a bright object because it is high enough to still catch the sun’s direct light. – Anthony”
Look at the video again. The camera is pointing *west*. So I, the observing camera, am facing the setting sun and yet I’m seeing the reflection of that same sunlight off an aircraft body to the point where it appears to be a burning flame? So. Light emits from sun, bounces off aircraft body, does a 90 degree turn, another 90 degree turn and finally pierces the camera lens?
I’m sorry but that doesn’t make any sense to me at all. Light does have some odd properties but at this sort of macro level I’d suggest the occlusion of sunlight by an object doesn’t actually cause the reflection of substantial amounts of sunlight towards the viewer so occluded.
Bruce Cobb says:
November 9, 2010 at 5:33 pm
It changed course at one point, so definitely not a rocket. ….
*******
Rockets, whether liquid, solid, or hybrid easily can change course if equipped with thrust vector control systems – which most are.
Having spent my professional life in rocketry from war stuff to Space Shuttle, I’m in the Jeff Id/shunti camp. This was a rocket, probably solid and appeared to be launched from a submersible or sea platform. I’m not quite ready to go for the most exciting possibility, that of a foreign sub tweaking us. Someone in the defense establishment has the answer – count on it. As to when or if they will let the rest of us in on it, that’s a big question.
Hmmmm.
@ur momisugly wes george
“From Unicus’ detailed explanation of the well understood contrail illusion it seems likely this kind of illusion must occur in the LA region with many thousands of jets coming and going daily all the time. Why has this one instance fooled everyone from NORAD on down? “
Actually the interesting bit for me was the comment by the news helicopter cameraman who emphatically stated it was not a contrail. I assume a professional news cameraman in the LA area who has probably spent thousands of hours in the air and having seen any number of contrails by passing aircraft would know if it was a contrail or not.
“I would suggest something like Virgin Atlantic-Galactic rocket”
Puh-lease! That launches from some 40,000 ft from it’s mother plane, not the ground! It’s definitely just an aircraft contrail – nothing special, unless you’re one of those weirdo “chemtrail” fanciers.
Contrail obviously
Distraction. What is the other hand doing?
The reporter in the first video above said that it lit up the night sky. What more does one need to know?
It’s worse than we thought!
My thinking is that it is a rocket test.
Have worked for a missile manufacturer and initiated launch at test sites for about half dozen rockets. Youtube shows curly plume is the definite rocket exhaust, not jet. Id is right. A rocket headed for Kwaj or destroyed over water, far out, where daylight payload recovery is still feasible. Launch from Florida to Pacific would send rocket across US, not as safe as an over-water flight. No more speculation. Some things are better left unsaid.
If it is simply a contrail, why is this the only one in the sky? Surely there were several aircraft near that altitude either on approach or departing yet there is only 1 contrail. I’m going with the stunt plane scenario.
Sorry Anthony, I am with Jeff Id on this. Living in Scottish Highlands I see thousands of contrails (most transatlantic flights from Europe to the US pass over us), and we also see plenty of military jets practising low-level and high altitude manouvres, and there is no way that’s a contrail. Most likely your military testing a new toy.
I have followed the US civilian space program for a number of years. My comments follow.
All US government test launches of rockets are made from one of three locations:
Cape Canaveral/Kennedy Space Center, Florida
Vandenberg Air Force Base, California (NW of LA).
Wallops Island, Virginia (much smaller rockets)
There are some exceptions with “Star Wars” sea-based tests.
Launches of large rockets are made under very tight safety controls therefore, they are tracked by radar and cameras, under the watchful eyes of range safety personnel so that the rocket can be destroyed by a range safety command destruct system in case the rocket veers off course towards a populated area. Thus a government test rocket has to be launched from or in the line of sight of one of the locations above.
A launch of any US government rocket 35 miles off the coast of LA could only be made by a submarine or navy cruiser equipped with a “star wars” anti-missile system).
The maximum thrust time for the current Trident missile is around 4 minutes. If you saw the “rocket” thrusting longer than four minutes, you were watching a plane not a rocket. The Trident has 3 stages and you can sometimes observe staging from 1st to 2nd.
I am not positive, but the location 35 miles off the coast of LA is probably within the range of the Vandenberg optics and radars from liftoff at sea level through completion of boost phase. I am not positive on this item but any good mathematician or astronomer could calculate this fairly quickly.
Since I don’t have the entire video I can’t determine the length of the “launch” or boost phase, but I suspect that what we are seeing is an inbound airplane to Los Angeles or Las Vegas. Given the known time of day, this should be easy enough to determine.
In summary, if our government wants to know what it was, all they have to do is ask LAX control what was near that location at that time of day. I doubt they care enough to check.
Finally, did anyone on Catalina hear anything? Last time I checked, solid rocket boosters were still pretty damn loud.
I hope this helps.
I’m also with Jeff Id on this for reasons already stated, but the final clue for me is the rapid changing in light intensity on what appears to be the solid rocket fuel combustion. Reflection off an aircraft maintaining a steady trajectory would be unlikely to create this effect.
I’m sure we will all have our own theories on this. Gavin from Real Climate might even claim this is the missing ‘upper troposphere’ hotspot !
http://www.necn.com/11/09/10/Mysterious-missile-launched-off-Californ/landing_scitech.html?blockID=348833&feedID=4213
Decent footage of “missile”, obviously a Jet.
Super-Pitts aircraft were out there every
weekend and many in the mid-week.
They practiced over the water where it’s
safe to the public. Really, the only safe place
in L.A. The wing coverings were highly
reflective, and in the sun might look like
a rocket motor.
Umm, couldn’t they use the trajectory of the trail to determine where the thing should have landed?