UPDATE: Contrail Science writes:
Note to the media – since this was almost certainly Flight AWE808 (US Airways) from Hawaii to Phoenix, why not have a camera crew somewhere in the vicinity (does not need to be exact, or a chopper), at around 5-5:30 today, and if the weather is right you’ll see the same trail again.
Here’s the flight path below for 11/8/10. If anybody gets any new photos today, leave a comment and I’ll get them posted here.
Original post starts below:
There’s quite a buzz in the blogosphere about this video shot by a KCBS News helicopter. Explanations range from “Moonbeam Gov. Jerry Brown is headed home to visit relatives” to “missile launch kept secret by the Pentagon”.
Whatever it is, I’ve seen nothing like it. The speed doesn’t match a missile, but the trajectory and cloud pattern certainly seems to. Perhaps our readers can help figure this out. One alert reader “slp” posted in comments a link to a likely Occams Razor style explanation.
watch the video:
For people outside the USA that may not be able to see the first video, try this one:
For reference, here’s a certified missile shot from the Air Force Space Command:
I’m wondering if this isn’t some stunt plane practicing over the ocean (where the pilot doesn’t have to worry about buildings, power lines, towers, guy wires, FAA airspace permissions, etc.) with a smoke generator turned on? Watch this video from about 15-20 seconds in. That looks like what the “missile” video is. Add some red sunset lighting and you’ve got instant “slow moving missile”.
UPDATE: Thanks to alert reader “slp” who wrote: “Likely a contrail:”
Indeed it looks very much like this jet contrail seen off San Clemente, from Contrail Science Overflow, excerpted below:
Jet contrails from some angles look like missile trails
An interesting contrail cropped up off the coast of San Clemente, Orange County, California on December 31st 2009. The curious shape led some people to think it’s a missile launch, which it does kind of look like (all taken from San Clemente)
“Missile-like” contrail. Note this is the Dec 31st contrail, not the Nov 8th CBS one. That’s at the bottom of the post.
…
This view is from Corona del Mar, about 20 miles Northeast of San Clemente:
Here’s a similar photo (of a different contrail, obviously) on the same day at the other side of the country:
Not a missile launch.
…
Here’s the idea with math:
The idea that it’s a missile launch comes from three misconceptions. Firstly that the trail is vertical – it’s not, it’s a horizontal trail, at around 32,000 feet (about six miles). It’s the same as this:
This contrail is no more vertical than the road is, and nor are the power lines at 45 degrees. Everything is horizontal – it’s the just the angle you are viewing it from. All of these show horizontal contrails.
Secondly there’s the misconception of direction, that it’s flying away from the viewer, when it’s actually flying towards the viewer. This is because the “base” of the contrail seems wider than the tip. Perspective tells the brain that this mean the base is closer. But actually you can see the base has been greatly spread by the wind. Since it’s still so far away the effects of perspective are greatly diminished, meaning the actual width of the contrail is what is creating the illusion. Imagine is a plane with a 100 mile long spreading contrail were coming towards you; what would it look like? It would look exactly like this.
Thirdly there’s the idea that it goes all the way down to the ground. Now that might be true if the Earth was flat, but the Earth is round, and things go beneath the horizon eventually, no matter how high they are. A plane 200 miles away but five miles up is always below the horizon. If the horizon is raised (as it is here, with Catalina Island), then the distance is less. Here’s some math:
This diagram is not to scale, but the math is the same regardless. The solid curved line is the surface of the earth. The dot at the top is San Clemente. The little triangle is Catalina. “d” is the distance to Catalina (d=35 miles). “c” the amount of Catalina that is visible above the horizon (c=0.05 miles, really a bit more, but let’s be conservative). “a” is the altitude of the plane, (a = 6 miles). “r” is the radius of the earth (r=3963 miles).
The green wavy line is the contrail. Notice it’s at a fixed height above the surface of the earth, and is going directly towards the OC.
The point labeled (0,0) is the center of the earth. (0,0) means X=0, Y=0, where X is horizontal and Y is vertical. What we want to know is how far away the plane is, the value x. We do this with cartesian geometry, noting that the lowest visible point of the trail is at the intersection of the dotted line, which is a circle of radius (r+a), hence the equation x^2 + y^2 = (r+a)^2 and the line labeled “sight line”, which is has the equation y=x*c/d. Combining these equations to solve for x yields a quadratic equation, which we can solve with Wolfram Alpha:
intersection of (y=r+x*c/d) and (x^2+y^2 = (r+a)^2)
and with the real numbers:
intersection of (y=r+x*c/d) and (x^2+y^2 = (r+a)^2) where a=6 and d=35 and c=0.05 and r=3963
Which gives x = 212, meaning that the bottom of the contrail is around 200 miles away. So if the front of the contrail (the actual aircraft) is somewhere above and behind catalina, then that means the contrail is over 100 miles long. At 500 mph, that means it could have formed in 12-15 minutes, which seems consistent with the descriptions in the discussion above. (feel free to play around with the numbers there to see the affect of various assumptions)
Full post here: Jet contrails from some angles look like missile trails
@William Howard From Los Angeles:
I was at White Sands Missile Range from 1979 to 1994 at ASL, where we often worked with EOD.
You and that WSMR EOD team were the most heroic people I have ever seen and you have my absolute respect!
Some of the stories that we could tell if ever allowed…
Alright already! It was me. Got mad at the wife and just launched myself!
Hi all,
Just ran across this excellent post: http://contrailscience.com/a-problem-of-perspective-in-the-oc-new-years-eve-contrail/
It includes many different photos, espec. from a virtually identical looking contrail that occurred Dec 31, 2009 – only they’ve got photos of it that not only look almost identical to this latest event, but also taken from very different locations and thus clearly showing it to be a jet contrail.
There is also a link to a video that follows the jet/missile longer than the other video’s I’ve seen – to a point where the persistent contrail ends and it becomes a more typical contrail that only lasts a very short ways behind the vehicle.
Then there is a link to a really awesome funky video of an Airbus A380 Contrail as seen from Cockpit Boeing B747-400 – showing clearly how jet contrails can end up spiraling.
There is also a nifty composite photo – someone took subsequent photos of the Nov 8 vehicle, then put each onto a single photo side by side – so you can see how wind iis moving the contrail.
In the comment section there is also the comment below with a link to a photo of the Nov 8 trail taken from a different angle and with a wide angle lens, showing a couple of other contrails at the same time.
Written by Doug on November 9, 2010.
Here is a picture I took of the event. Unfortunately, I only had my wide-angle lens as I was trying to get good sunset photos.
http://flic.kr/p/8SfS7A
To the left, there is the trail of interest…but to the right is at least two similar trails but with different angles. For the record this was taken at Hermosa Beach. Using the clouds for reference, I’m guessing I was south of the NECN coverage. I can’t tell with the Channel 8 video, but it’s interesting that the angle is the opposite…seems that it’s definitely a contrail to me since my pic has the opposite angle as the Channel 8 footage which wouldn’t be possible with a vertical trail.
p.s., the comment and link by “Written by Cindy on November 9, 2010.” doesn’t go to a “missile” at all, but rather a portion of the human anatomy, be forewarned, its spam.
” I can’t tell with the Channel 8 video, but it’s interesting that the angle is the opposite…seems that it’s definitely a contrail to me since my pic has the opposite angle as the Channel 8 footage which wouldn’t be possible with a vertical trail.”
Actually, that “opposite angle” was a major clue…
Take a very close look at the video images and you will see that the right side of the “contrail” is bright and the it’s shadow is on the left side.
Use any astronomy software and identify the direction of the Sun at sunset for that date. You will find that it will be Southwest instead of due East because of the time of the year.
Twist and manipulate the video images with the bright side to the right and the shadows on the left, with your knowledge of the actual direction of the Sunset.
Once you have figured out those angles, take a closer look at the video. Notice how the land was on the right side of the video and the ocean was on the left?
Work with those angles and see if you can identify a rather major problem with the lighting in the released video images.
“I wonder if I’m the first to call it, the reported unexplained missile launch off the coast of California, was US Airways 808.
I did a lot of extrapolation of what flights could be at the right position (off the coast) at the right altitude (for contrail formation) and came down to two possibilities: UPS flight 902 (UPS902) or US Airways flight 808 (AWE808).
As I was researching tonight (24 hours later), I realized that today’s AWE808 current position (at around 4:50pm) was almost the same as it was the day of the incident. I quickly pulled up a Newport Beach webcam and found tha (apparently) AWE808 was making an identical contrail, 24 hours later!”
http://blog1.bahneman.com/content/it-was-us-airways-flight-808
In an effort to put this thing to bed once and for all I went to my archives and pulled another shuttle launch photograph of STS-122. This particular image shows the shuttle and it’s plume from an angle very similar to the image recorded by the helicopter news camera. It was shot from a 15-story balcony, from 30-miles away. The original news release of the CA event mentioned 35-miles. The image is magnified by the use of a focal length of about 200~300mm. The news footage was more highly magnified.
In my first post on this thread (Jose Suro says: November 10, 2010 at 6:16 am) I made the observations that a plume of the size shown in the news footage would a) need to be made with very big motors, and b) the rocket’s burning exhaust would be very apparent. The solid motors of the shuttle are the largest ever flown, and it uses two of them. Keep this in mind as you look at the images below
Here is the original image of the shuttle launch:
http://www.josesuroeditorial.com/Other/Tests/1138678_nKNKC/11/1087640020_sM5SJ/Original
Notice the large and very bright exhaust flames. No such exhaust is shown in the news footage. Also notice how the image is quite dark in relationship to the brightness of the exhaust flames. This is because cameras do not have the necessary exposure dynamic range to capture both a correctly exposed background and the detail within the brightness of the exhaust at the same time in a single image.
This second image below is the exact same image as the first but with a large contrast and brightness adjustment made in post processing to lighten the background to a normal exposure range:
http://www.josesuroeditorial.com/Other/Tests/1138678_nKNKC/11/1087640085_6yEAN/Original
Notice how now the exhaust flames are so bright as to be devoid of any detail. The point is that the exhaust is SO bright that it overpowers everything else in the image The camera does not have the ability to retain detail there at a normal exposure level. All of this happens in broad daylight – if the image had been made after sunset, as in the news footage, the exhaust flames would be even brighter.
The plume is also worth mentioning. In the second image it is more apparent but still darker than the exhaust flames by a considerable margin. That image also shows that in the length of time of the flight the bottom of the plume still holds pretty intact with all of its detail, The one in the news footage is very diffused, proving that it has been out there for enough time for a strong wind (as in high altitude winds) to start diffusing it. The shuttle’s plume is also a bit smaller, this from the biggest solid motors, 2 of them, that currently exist.
In short, the news footage looks nothing like a real rocket launch!
Off-topic: It’d be nice if you used a full feed (not needed for comments, however). I have you and Chiefio in my feed reader, but still have to click through to read each article.
1. shunt1 says:
“I was at White Sands Missile Range from 1979 to 1994 at ASL, where we often worked with EOD.
You and that WSMR EOD team were the most heroic people I have ever seen and you have my absolute respect!
Some of the stories that we could tell if ever allowed…”
Thanks for the kind words. I never really considered it heroic but the job certainly needed huge nads. The kind you carry around in a wheel barrel. My training was good and the danger was manageable. Those were the best and worst days of my life. I know a couple of those stories and yes even after 22 years they still give me chills at night.
Well, I’m embarrassed – the site I linked to and described in this post: Rational Debate says: November 11, 2010 at 9:12 pm and wrote a bit about is the homesite of the link Anthony put in his update already (his link a mirror site they requested high traffic sites use). The comment set is different between them, however, or at least appears to be on quick check… so I don’t know if folks would have found the panoramic/wide angle photo comment that I mentioned, but that’s minor compared to the site post itself obviously. So I gave folks a much longer description of what was there, but Anthony had already found and linked to it.
Look up on Google about UFO activity around Catalina Island and you will see plenty. If the Gov said they didn’t do it then you better believe it. The Gov would not be launching any missile 35 miles away from Los Angeles without providing warning to Coast Guard to clear out the airspace. Just think what would happen if there was a mishap and the missle veared out of control into Southern Cal.
As far as airplane contrail since when do you see a contrail that gushes behind a plane with such solidness and size? Give me a break, most of you have seen airplane contrail right over your house from various angle and they do not remotely resemble this. Pilots might say that general aviation flighting below a FL 180 do not have to provide flight path….that is true. But when do you see small, light general aviation plane produce contrail that can only liken to a missile launch? None.
As far as the possibility of a foreign country launching this that is absurd. Russian and China would not be this irresponsible unless they risk massive retaliation from a very jitter Homeland Security. And for Iran or North Korea, they wish they had the capability to do this 10,000 miles away from their homeland.
Don’t discount the UFO origin. There are eyewitnesses to this event who stated that whatever was at the tip of this contrail was “football” shaped and was spinning. If you look at the CBS video(not a snap shot on the web) and you will see a spiralling of the contrail. Have you seen a jetliner contrail that spirals? No, they simply spreadout and dissipate.
Don’t let the Pentagon fool you folks. This is no plane contrail. The only plausible theory is that of an extraterrestrial origin
LP says:
“Don’t let the Pentagon fool you folks. This is no plane contrail. The only plausible theory is that of an extraterrestrial origin”
I find it unlikely that creatures advanced enough that they are able to cross many light years distance to get to this planet would be using chemical propulsion.
I do find it interesting that a NOTAM went out right after this incident clearing the area for over a day.
http://china-defense.blogspot.com/2010/11/california-missile-launch-hunt-for-red.html
My dad titan 2 missile gyro engineer, saw dud launches, and a couple in a tight spiral
like this heavy inter continental ballistic launch. These without clearance carry large
10 megaton nukes, large E.M.P. or smallpox – hemorrhagic virus warheads. No joke
with the cover up, a childish cowardly shakedown president with zero ethical pride,
we nearly had a genocide launch and a 911 explanation an Oklahoma self bombing scenario. We get told to find intelligent ethical religious men around the world and destroy the homes and families of those nations who protect them.
Southern California will continue to receive cover up by any deadly force or genocide
bio weapon that comes to mind including the next or 4th nuke attempt on that doomed city area, man the weather is great there, why kill tons of people? I have several patents on energy devices, one can pump water continuously unpowered
and irrigate or produce food at astoundingly low cost, my life is doomed. Polygraph in
courts or modern civilization will stop, the oil royalty wants others like me and you
readers dead. Russia pulled out polygraphs and ended the internal civil war 20 yr
ago, follow Russia!
I can’t believe how naive, gullible, and goofy everyone is sounding, including scientists and members of the American Government, stating that this is not a ballistic missile launch. Look at the plume. If that is a commercial jet aircraft, why doesn’t all of the commercial jets produce a plume of that magnitude? Someone said it’s a stunt plane. The plume is too large, and the ballistic missile keeps going ever higher in the sky first vertical, then horizontal towards the west; why would a stunt plane be rehearsing, training, etc. that far away? There’s lots of “big sky” and “big country” east of California where there’s no power lines or other interference. Someone said Aliens; come on man! Aliens? That’s a weak “cop out.” Take it from a 20 year Navy Veteran whose seen ballistic missile launches and other type missile launches; IT WAS A BALLISTIC MISSILE LAUNCH. Even former Admirals, Generals, and other Military experts and Scientists affirm and confirm unequivocally that it was a ballistic launch; from a submarine mind you. And if it wasn’t an American sub, it must have been from either China, North Korea, or some other nation making a very solid and “scare you” statement to America. Truth of the matter is, if it had been DEFCON Day, we would have been attacked by surprise and many cities taken out in minutes with little to no time to prepare. What’s really surprising is the Government downplaying the incident and being almost eerily silent with little to no response; any responses to date sound silly and foolish to say the least. If we find out that it was China, N. Korea, or some other enemy power, we need to respond in some way including declaring war. Maybe launch one of our own ballistic missiles off of their coast(s)!
REPLY: yeah, sure, whatever. It was photographed the next day, sample place, same time. Flight AW808 from Hawaii to Phoenix. Game over. – Anthony
I am guessing you did not read most of the comments. If you had, in addition to the Phoenix flight, you would have learn that the CBS cameraman who filmed the contrail, tracked and videotaped it for about ten minutes. Can you please explain which ballistic missile maintains chemical (solid/liquid your choice) propulsion for ten minutes? Also, in the interview he asserts he tracked the object in his opinion from the horizon towards the shore. My wild guess is that he actually watched it longer than that–as the plane headed over land and he realized it was an airplane. But why ruin a great video? Cut it down to something short n sweet and no one questions the obvious–length of time under thrust exceeds all ballistic missiles.
After the commercial, go into the David Martin article about 40 seconds.
http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=7040407n&tag=related;photovideo
It was a missile and it was fired from a submarine:
General Mcinerney: I am absolutely certain that is NOT an aircraft.
Watch what he further has to say in the video at the following link:
http://www.prisonplanet.com/general-mcinerney-“i-am-absolutely-certain-that-is-not-an-aircraft”.html
I agree 100% with General Mcinerney’s assessment.
E. M Smith… you are right.
REPLY: Contrail – final word. – Anthony
Chinese sub made the launch according to this video to send a message to Obama and Japan. Timing of missile launch shortly before Obama met with his Japanese counter partner.
“If the US holds Navy exercise launching missiles off coast of China, we do the same off your coast!
You’re all wrong. It was a weather balloon. And G.W. Bush’s fault at that.
Pentagon admits it wasn’t a plane; it was an “unexplained” missile:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/pentagon-calls-mystery-missile-unexplained-cannot-rule-out-threat/story-e6frf7jx-1225950540060
The US did not know a Chinese sub was in the area, how can we say it was a missile from that sub.