The Week That Was: 2015-10-03 (October 3, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
More IPCC Challenges: The US administration is attempting to establish an agreement to be reached at the 21st session of the Conference of the Parties (COP-21) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to be held in Paris from November 30 to December 11. Meanwhile, more challenges to the findings of the UN Intergovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) continue to emerge. Many of the challenges do not question the basic science or logic found in the climate models, but do question the use to which they are put. This questioning especially applies to the 95% certainty expressed in the Summary for Policymakers of IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5).
In a recent paper, distinguished physicist Wallace Manheimer expressed it well: “This paper reviews a great deal of worldwide data, some of which confirms, some of which disputes the global warming hypothesis. While increasing CO2in the atmosphere is a concern, it is hardly a planetary emergency.” Perhaps these sentences summarize the views of the global warming skeptics: carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are not causing a planetary emergency, only the politically motivated advocates and politicians are. This political motivation extends to the IPCC and its work based on the assumption it can predict (project), with great certainty, global warming from human causes without thoroughly understanding the natural influences on climate.
To illustrate his view, Manheimer uses two examples of community madness from US history: the Salem witchcraft trials and the prosecution of preschool teachers for sex abuse of their students in the 1980s and 90s. The former is well known and lasted a year. Many try to suppress the latter. The prosecutions were based on work and testimony by social workers and psychologists who insisted they could interpret actions and words by 6 to 7 year old children to have them recall sexual abuse claimed to have occurred when the children were 3 or 4. Eventually, all the convictions were overturned, with one man serving 18 years based on absurd accusations. Unlike the 17th century governor of Massachusetts who later apologized for the witch trials, none of the governors of the states involved in the late 20th century false trials apologized.
After explaining these examples, Manheimer embarks on a brief review of the evidence behind the claim that human emissions of CO2 are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming, and finds it lacking. He lists the reasons why. Including: “Fourth, if the measurement is just barely on the edge of a detectable effect; some measurements show a slight effect, others do not, or show the opposite effect, as in the climate change case, there is certainly strong grounds for skepticism, at least as regards the current status of the effect. Fifth, computer simulation is a very powerful technique (I have spend [sic] a good part of my career developing and using computer models of complex physical systems), but it is hardly infallible. They [The models] should be regarded with at least some skepticism, no matter how many of them point to a particular effect.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
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Quote of the Week: “It is necessary to look at the results of observation objectively, because you, the experimenter, might like one result better than another.” Richard Feynman
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Number of the Week: $7 Billion USD
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Société de Calcul Mathématique: Several French mathematicians under the Société de Calcul Mathématique SA wrote a 195 page white paper on global warming and the political ramifications of the actions of its proponents. The title of the paper is well put: “The battle against global warming: an absurd, costly and pointless crusade.” Writing from the perspective of French, European, and world policy, the paper finds an enormous impact on the economy with every activity affected. It also states:
“The impact on the entire field of scientific research is particularly clear and especially pernicious. No project can be launched, on any subject whatsoever, unless it makes direct reference to global warming. You want to look at the geology of the Garonne Basin? It is, after all, an entirely normal and socially useful subject in every respect. Well, your research will be funded, approved and published only if it mentions the potential for geological storage of CO2. It is appalling.
“The crusade has invaded every area of activity and everyone‘s thinking: the battle against CO2 has become a national priority. How have we reached this point, in a country that claims to be rational? At the root lie the declarations made by the IPPC [IPCC], which have been repeated over the years and taken up by the European Commission and the Member States. France, which likes to see itself as the good boy of Europe‘, adds an extra layer of virtue to every crusade. When others introduce reductions, we will on principle introduce bigger reductions, without ever questioning their appropriateness: a crusade is virtuous by its very nature. And you can never be too virtuous.
“But mathematicians do not believe in crusades; they look at facts, figures, observations and arguments.”
The paper assesses the facts, explaining why the authors consider the crusade is absurd, costly, and pointless. Under the scientific section, it discusses the natural variability of the climate, humans influence on the climate (tiny while the natural influence is huge), that humans do not have the technology to change the climate (or make it stable), and that the consequences of global warming are that the world will adjust as it always has. The paper criticizes the IPCC [which it abbreviates as the IPPC] and states: “The IPPC‘s conclusions go against observed facts; the figures used are deliberately chosen to support its conclusions (with no regard for the most basic scientific honesty), and the natural variability of phenomena is passed over without comment.”
The paper presents a detailed overview of the surface temperature measuring stations, with Europe covered for more than 150 years and the US for more than 110 years. From a historical perspective land mass is not well covered and, except for Europe, the US, and eastern China, the bulk of the land mass is not well covered today. Surface sea coverage is spotty, at best, distributed in a few areas in the world, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere. The paper also discusses the manipulation of the surface record by NOAA, but not the one in 2015. It suggests that one cannot use the surface data to define or calculate an average temperature.
The paper challenges the widely accepted measurements of CO2 from Mauna Loa, and states there is a poor distribution of sensors, with nearly all located in Europe or the US. Also it states:
Among other criticisms, the paper points out weaknesses in satellite estimates of temperatures, independently supported by weather balloon measurements. SEPP maintains these are the finest available, though not perfect.
Under the heading “Be Careful!” the paper briefly discusses models:
“Conclusions based on any kind of model should be disregarded. As the SCM specializes in building mathematical models, we should also be recognized as competent to criticize them. Models are useful when attempting to review our knowledge, but they should not be used as an aid to decision-making until they have been validated. Now, validating a climate model requires thousands of years.” [Boldface added.]
Perhaps that is the intention of those who control the IPCC. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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David Evans: Jo Nova’s web site continues to present criticisms of the IPCC models by mathematician and electrical engineer David Evans. As stated last week, TWTW will refrain from detailed comments until the entire presentation is complete. That said, the heavy use of partial differentiation of two or more independent variables appears serious. Traditionally, such measures require all other variables remain constant.
Water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas. As easily demonstrated by the South Asian monsoon, it varies by region, season, and year. Assuming water vapor is constant can lead to major complications. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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UN Sustainable Summit: The September 25 to 27 UN Sustainable Summit ended with the attendees approving 17 goals, down from 169 initially proposed. Simply because the number of goals were reduced, that does not mean all are achievable. For example: Goal # 13 is “Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts.” Exactly how the UN proposes to combat climate change that has been occurring for hundreds of millions of years, thousands of times longer than humanity, is not clear.
The details of the goal include some highly questionable assertions. “From 1880 to 2012, average global temperature increased by 0.85°C.” As pointed out by the Société de Calcul Mathématique, we do not have the ability to calculate average global surface temperatures today, much less in 1880.
The statement also includes: “Oceans have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished and sea level has risen. From 1901 to 2010, the global average sea level rose by 19 cm as oceans expanded due to warming and ice melted. The Arctic’s sea ice extent has shrunk in every successive decade since 1979, with 1.07 million km² of ice loss every decade.” Why stop at 1901? Since 18,000 years ago oceans have risen by 120 meters (400 feet). Other than a past trend, claims of future temperature rise and sea level rise are speculation from un-validated climate models.
“Goal 15: Sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, halt and reverse land degradation, halt biodiversity loss.” “Due to drought and desertification each year 12 million hectares are lost (23 hectares per minute), where 20 million tons of grain could have been grown.”
The concept that, in general, the earth is greening, as demonstrated by satellite photographs, has not reached the UN. Also, the massive increase in world-wide yields from modern agriculture has eluted the UN, including a 54% increase in yields of cereals (not including rice) from 1986-89 to 2013-15.
Some of the UN goals stated are reasonable and commendable, but a number of the goals demonstrate the lack of critical thinking and general ignorance of these international leaders.
See Expanding the Orthodoxy, TWTW – Sep 5, 2015, http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/climate-change-2/ and
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/biodiversity/
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Ozone: The US EPA has intensified its ozone regulations without significant scientific justification of how the new regulations may improve public health. The new regulations may be among the most costly undertaken. A number of links identify the costs, but few address a major issue with ground level ozone – increasingly, it is caused by nature.
Even the EPA web site recognizes that Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC), which cause ozone, are created, in part, by nature. Other than PM 10 (Particulate Matter, which fell by 17%), VOCs fell the least amount of EPA category pollutants, by only 18% from 2000 to 2013. The EPA realizes that weather conditions influence ozone. “Ozone is more readily formed on warm, sunny days when the air is stagnant.”
This weather influence, is particularly true for VOCs such as isoprene, which is largely produced by trees. Plants produce significant amounts of VOCs on warm sunny days, particularly humid days. Environmental groups tend to blame that the haze of Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia, part of the Appalachian Mountain system, on automobiles, but fail to mention the tremendous increase in density and number of trees in the mountains since the 1930s, partially from a decline in need for pasture and biofuels. The early settlers named it the Blue Ridge for a reason, not for its crystal-clear air.
Similarly, environmental groups are quick to blame haze in the Grand Canyon on the coal-fired
Four Corners Generating Station or Navajo Generating Station. The former requires that emissions go in the opposite direction to the prevailing winds. The latter requires that emissions go to the north and east, rather than the prevailing winds to the east.
Few groups, including the EPA, bring up that the North Rim of the Grand Canyon is dominated by the heavy woodlands of the Kaibab National Forest, with a “warm summer, humid, continental climate.” A combination that results in naturally caused haze.
See Article # 2 and links under EPA and other Regulators on the March,
https://web.archive.org/web/20150912070048/http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/aqtrends.html, and
https://web.archive.org/web/20150905084240/http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/ozone.html
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Additions and Corrections: The August 29th TWTW pointed out that the extreme heat of Venus is not so much due to “run-away greenhouse” but due to the atmospheric pressure at the surface being more than 90 times that of earth. The discussion omitted Mars. Comparing the atmospheric pressure of Mars, Venus, and Earth shows that pressure is not so much due to the composition of the atmospheres, but thickness. Both Venus and Mars have high concentration of CO2 (about 95%); but, the thickness of the atmosphere varies.
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Number of the Week: $7 Billion USD. After the expenditure of about $7 Billion, Royal Dutch Shell announced it would halt exploration in the US Chukchi Sea (Arctic), because it failed to find adequate quantities of oil and natural gas. The $7 Billion expenditure includes about $2.1 Billion to the US government for leases. According to reports, US Geological Survey has estimated that US Arctic water hold about 26 billion barrels of recoverable oil. Exxon-Mobil, BP and other producers have discovered about 10 billion barrels.
No doubt, the drop in the price of oil, thanks to hydraulic fracking of dense shale, was an important factor in Shell’s decision. Also, the harsh conditions, the failure of the Arctic to warm as many predicted, contributed. But the harsh conditions of US permitting may have been significant. After BP, Keystone, and the Administration’s failure to establish reasonable regulations for hydraulic fracturing on federally controlled lands and waters; what oil company would trust Washington? See Washington’s Control of Energy.
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ARTICLES:
Please note that articles not linked easily or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. For Sustainable Energy, Choose Nuclear
By S. Fred Singer, American Thinker, Sep 30, 2015
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/09/for_sustainable_energy_choose_nuclear.html
SUMMARY: Energy based on nuclear fission has many of the same advantages and none of the disadvantages of solar and wind; politics based on false fears are retarding its growth. Yet many believe that wind and solar energy are essential, when the world “runs out” of non-renewable fossil fuels. [They also believe that wind and solar are unique in providing energy that’s carbon-free, inexhaustible, and essentially without cost. However, a closer look shows that all three special features are based on illusions and wishful thinking.]
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2. The Twilight Ozone
The Grand Canyon may soon be an EPA ‘non-attainment’ area.
Editorial, WSJ, Oct 1, 2015
http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-twilight-ozone-1443742001
SUMMARY: The new rules for …“ozone may be the costliest regulations in US history. The new “rule is wholly discretionary, and none other than President Obama overruled the EPA on ozone in 2011 in the name of “reducing regulatory burdens and regulatory uncertainty.” But that was headed into an election year, and Mr. Obama is making amends to burnish his eco-legacy.
“Ozone in the ambient air can contribute to smog and respiratory ailments, but the U.S. has worked hard to control O3 to the point of virtual nonexistence. “Back in 1979, Los Angeles still was so full of smog that there were days where people who were vulnerable just could not go outside,” Mr. Obama said in August. “And you fast-forward 30, 40 years later, and we solved those problems.”
“Sure enough, the EPA’s latest measures show most of the U.S. is meeting the 2008 standards of ozone concentrations of 75 parts per billion (ppb) or less, except for pockets in Texas and the northeast. Only green-happy California is in ‘extreme non-attainment.’”
“The EPA is nonetheless lowering the standard to 70 ppb and the green lobby wanted 65 ppb or even 60 ppb. So while avoiding the worst-case scenario, the factories, utilities, refineries, farms, cars and trucks that produce the man-made emissions that cause ozone to form will need to install expensive retrofits. New ones will be more expensive. The EPA estimated the 2011 draft proposal would cost the private economy anywhere from $19 billion to $90 billion.
“All that money will buy few public health benefits. The EPA is attempting to drive ozone down to or below the “background” level where it naturally occurs from sources like forest fires and plant life. The Grand Canyon and Yellowstone will likely become ‘non-attainment areas’ under the new standard.
“Mr. Obama and the EPA invoke asthma attacks, and cleaning up dirty air in a city like Beijing would certainly help asthmatics—and everybody else. But the marginal gains decline sharply when moving from clean U.S. air to allegedly cleaner air.
“…., costly regulations like the ozone rule make it harder for the economy to expand. Dollars that a manufacturer spends to replace functional equipment can’t be spent to hire new workers or finance a new idea. California gets a special dispensation and more time to comply because the EPA deems its ozone problem is “uniquely stubborn,” but the state is also losing factories and businesses that will take the hit. Federal permits are much harder to obtain in “non-attainment areas.”
“If you want to know why the U.S. has had 2% growth for so long, the EPA’s almost bimonthly release of regulations like the ozone rule—or the coal ash rule, the mercury rule, or the waters of the United States rule—is a big part of the explanation.” [Boldface added.]
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NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) couple to solar activity: New studies find a time-lag of 3 years
[It’s the Sun, Stupid! Growing Number Of Studies Show Oceanic Cycles (Climate) Driven By Solar Activity]
By Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated/ edited by P Gosselin), No Tricks Zone, Oct 1, 2015
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
German Scientists: Models Showing Bitter Winters Are Ahead For Europe …Current Solar Cycle Weakest In 200 Years
The sun in August 2015 and the climatic UV amplifier in the stratosphere
By Frank Bosse and Fritz Vahrenholt (Translated/edited by P Gosselin) No Tricks Zone, Sep 29, 2015
http://notrickszone.com/#sthash.YeEoVaKo.oCgqlqZc.dpbs
Latest Study Indicates Solar Variability “Dominant Influence On Temperature” …CMIP5 Models Fail
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 27, 2015
[SEPP Comment: On a previously linked paper by Soon, et al.]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
A new low in science: Criminalizing climate change skeptics
By Judith Curry, Fox News, Sep 28, 2015
My Fox News op-ed on RICO
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 28, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/09/28/my-fox-news-op-ed-on-rico/
[SEPP Comment: Addition insights on her op-ed]
Shukla’s Gold
By Steve McIntyre, Climate Audit, Sep 28, 2015
http://climateaudit.org/2015/09/28/shuklas-gold/
Those scientists who want to use RICO to prosecute AGW ‘deniers’ have a big problem
By Russell Cook, American Thinker, Oct 1, 2015
Climate activists want us prosecuted under RICO
Losing the climate science battle, climate activists want government to silence skeptics
Guest essay by Paul Driessen, WUWT, Sep 29, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/29/climate-activists-want-us-prosecuted-under-rico/
Getting Rich off Climate Extremism
By Ian Tuttle, National Review, Oct 1, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/424875/climate-extremist-taxpayer-funded-ian-tuttle
House Panel Probing Taxpayer Support for Effort to Investigate Climate Change Skeptics
Congressman asks taxpayer-funded green group to preserve records ahead of investigation
By Laqchlan Markay, Washington Free Beacon. Oct 1. 2-15
#RICO20 $4 million NSF grant while Shukla’s organization is being “dissolved” ?
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 30, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2013
https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-II/CCR-II-Full.pdf
Summary: http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2a/pdf/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, 2014
http://www.nipccreport.org/reports/ccr2b/pdf/Full-Report.pdf
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy
The battle against global warming: an absurd, costly and pointless crusade
By Haberstich, Schmitt, Berton, Tournié and Basso,.Editor: Gombero. (mathematicians), Société de Calcul Mathématique, SA (France), September, 2015
http://www.scmsa.eu/archives/SCM_RC_2015_08_24_EN.pdf
Original Sin, Prophets, Witches, Preschool Sex Abuse, and Global Warming
By Wallace Manheimer, Standard Scientific Research and Essays, Sep 2015
http://www.standresjournals.org/journals/SSRE/Pdf/2015/september/Manheimer.pdf
Fundamental Science Errors In The Pope’s Encyclical
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Sep 30, 2015
http://drtimball.com/2015/fundamental-science-errors-in-the-popes-encyclical/
[SEPP Comment: Explaining why ignoring water vapor is a fundamental error in IPCC science, thus in the Pope’s Encyclical.]
New Science 4: Error 1: Partial Derivatives
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Sep 26, 2015
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/09/new-science-4-error-1-partial-derivatives/#more-44775
New Science 5: Error 2: Model architecture means all feedbacks work through the surface temperature?
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Sep 27, 2015
New Science 6: How the Greenhouse Effect Works and “four pipes” to space
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Sep 28, 2015
New Science 7: Rerouting Feedback in Climate Models
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Oct 1, 2015
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/10/new-science-7-rerouting-feedback-in-climate-models/
New Science 8: Applying the Stefan-Boltzmann Law to Earth
By Jo Nova and David Evans, Her Blog, Oct 2, 2015
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/10/new-science-8-applying-the-stefan-boltzmann-law-to-earth/
The Need To Revisit The Climategate Revelations To Counter Mainstream Media Failure And The Paris Climate Conference Plans
Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball, WUWT, Sep 28, 2015
Dr. Alan Carlin, former Senior EPA analyst, writes a comprehensive book on the craziness of the EPA
By John Dunn, Junkscience.com, Sep 27, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Review of Alan Carlin’s book.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate Change: Facts Versus Opinions
By John Horgan, Scientific American, Oct 1, 2015
http://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/climate-change-facts-versus-opinions/
“FACT: As a result of increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, global surface temperatures have increased by about one degree centigrade since 1880.”
[SEPP Comment: There was no way of measuring global temperatures in 1880. Causation is not established.]
The IPCC at a crossroads: Opportunities for reform
By Carraro et al. Science Mag, Oct 2, 2015
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/350/6256/34.full
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Unsustainable Development Goals
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Sep 15, 2015
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/unsustainable-development-goals-by-bj-rn-lomborg-2015-09
What is the global economic impact of climate change?
By SJ Tol, World Economic Forum, Sep 18, 2015
https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/09/what-is-the-global-economic-impact-of-climate-change/
[SEPP Comment: Explaining some of the deceit behind the 2°C target. Tol uses his version of the social cost of carbon.]
The China – US Agreement?
China Cap-and-Trade: James Hansen on Carbon Cronyism
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Sep 29, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/china-international/china-cap-and-trade-james-hansen-on-cronyism/
China-U.S. deal sets bar low ahead of Paris climate talks
By David Stanway, Reuters, Sep 28, 2015
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/28/uk-usa-china-climatechange-idUKKCN0RS0ER20150928
China’s 2017 Carbon Timetable May Be Hit by Slowing Economy
By Staff Writers, Bloomberg, Sep 29, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
China Recycles: Another Attempt at Cap and Trade
By Patrick Michaels, Cato, Sep 25, 2015
http://www.cato.org/blog/china-recycles-another-attempt-cap-trade
On to Paris!
All Those Climate Change Pledges Are A Farce, New York Times Says
By John Merline, IBD, Sep 28, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Modi calls for climate change agenda that helps developing countries
By David Brunnstrom and Jeff Mason, Reuters, Sep 29, 20115
http://news.yahoo.com/modi-calls-climate-change-agenda-helps-developing-countries-043318958.html
Philippines makes conditional offer to cut emissions by 70%
By Staff Writes, AFP, Oct 1, 2015
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/philippines-vows-cut-emissions-70-113113763.html#TkuWnyg
The uncertainty of climate sensitivity and its implication for the Paris negotiations
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 30, 2015
The Administration’s Plan
Publication Date a Focal Point of $300B Climate Fight
By Bill Murray, Real Clear Energy, Sep 24, 2015
[SEPP Comment: According to the article, in spite of costs to utilities and consumers, the administration is delaying publishing its plan for fear of the courts placing an injunction against the administration’s actions.]
The Administration’s Plan – Push-Back
EPA’s Energy Power Grab
By Brad D. Schimel, Heartland, Sep 10, 2015
http://news.heartland.org/newspaper-article/2015/09/10/epas-energy-power-grab
[SEPP Comment: Discussing the pending litigation against the Administration’s power plan.]
Social Benefits of Carbon
Forests And Fields In Record Growth Around The Planet
John Ross, The Australian, Via GWPF, Mar 31, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/forests-and-fields-in-record-growth-around-the-planet/
Impact of CO2 fertilization on maximum foliage cover across the globe’s warm, arid environments
By Donohue, Roderick, McVicar, and Farquhar, Geophysical Research Letters, Jun 19, 2015
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.50563/full
Problems in the Orthodoxy
India’s climate plans pointer to green summit differences
By Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Hindustan Times, New Delhi, Oct 2, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/ocr2–chauduri-analysisi/story-SqLd5QXwg782AVogppadjM.html
India’s Climate Plan Will Triple Emissions By 2030
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 2, 2015
Climate Change And The Myth Of Stranded Assets
By Nick Butler, Financial Times, Via GWPF, Sep 28, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/climate-change-and-the-myth-of-stranded-assets/
Climate pledges so far would allow extensive global warming by 2100
By Eli Kintisch, Science Mag, Sep 28, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Assuming a temperature sensitivity to carbon dioxide that is far from demonstrated.]
Seeking a Common Ground
Confluence (not conflict) of interest
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Sep 30, 2015
http://judithcurry.com/2015/09/30/confluence-not-conflict-of-interest/
Commissions of Inquiry
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 2, 2015
http://drtimball.com/2015/commissions-of-inquiry/
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Beijing Climate Center’s Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.1(m)
Liu, X., Wu, T., Yang, S., Jie, W., Nie, S., Li, Q., Cheng, Y. and Liang, X. 2015. Performance of the seasonal forecasting of the Asian Summer Monsoon by BCC_CSM1.1(m). Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 32: 1156-1172., Sep 30, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/sep/a22.php
The Current Status of Modelling Arctic Summer Storm Tracks
Nishii, K., Nakamura, H. and Orsolini, Y.V. 2015. Arctic summer storm track in IP3/5 climate models. Climate Dynamics 44: 1311-1327. Sep 28, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/sep/a20.php
[SEPP Comment: The models failure to predict do not justify dire projections about the Arctic.]
Giant Kelp Unaffected by Ocean Acidification
Fernández, P.A., Roleda, M.Y. and Hurd, C.L. 2015. Effects of ocean acidification on the photosynthetic performance, carbonic anhydrase activity and growth of the giant kelp Macrocystis pyrifera. Photosynthesis Research 124: 293-304. Sep 25, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/sep/a19.php
“As demonstrated here, and in numerous additional reviews of other experiments posted on our website (found under the topics — and sub-topics — of Ocean Acidification and Ocean Acidification and Warming in our Subject Index), for many species, ocean acidification will be a non-problem … and maybe even a blessing!”
The Climate Change that May Suppress Tropical Cyclone Strength
Huang, P., Lin, I.-I., Chou, C. and Huang, R.-H. 2015. Change in ocean subsurface environment to suppress tropical cyclone intensification under global warming. Nature Communications 6: 10.1038/ncomms8188. Sep 24, 2015
http://www.co2science.org/articles/V18/sep/a18.php
Measurement Issues
Approximately 92% (or 99%) of USHCN surface temperature data consists of estimated values
Guest essay by John Goetz, WUWT, Sep 27, 2015
Is There Evidence of Frantic Researchers “Adjusting” Unsuitable Data? (Now Includes July Data)
Guest Post by Professor Robert Brown from Duke University and Werner Brozek, Edited by Just The Facts, WUWT, Oct 1, 2015
Human error in the surface temperature record
Guest essay by John Goetz, WUWT, Sep 28, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/28/human-error-in-the-surface-temperature-record/
Tired of the Claims of “Warmest Ever” Month and Year? They Will Likely Continue Next Year
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Sep 28, 2015
Changing Weather
Extraordinary Flooding Possible In South Carolina
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 2, 2015
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2015/10/extraordinary-flooding-possible-in.html
Changing Climate
Climate cooling and sea-level changes caused crocodilian retreat
By Staff Writers, London, UK (SPX), Sep 25, 2015
Changing Seas
Surface of the oceans affects climate more than thought
Press Release, Leipzig Institute for Tropospheric Research, Sep 30, 2015
Loss of ocean predators has impact on climate change strategies
By Staff Writers, Nathan, Australia (SPX), Oct 01, 2015
Link to paper: Predators help protect carbon stocks in blue carbon ecosystems
By Atwood, et al. Nature Climate Change, Sep 28, 2015
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2763.html
Lo! Shark god protects us from storms, floods, heatwaves (sayth Nature & ABC)
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 30, 2015
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Ups and downs of sea level
Mitrovica speaks on scenarios connected to gravitational effect
By Alvin Powell, Harvard Gazette, Sep 23, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
On the Bright Side: The Stability of Glaciers in the Astore Basin of Northwestern Himalaya
By Craig Idso, Cato, Sep 24, 2015
http://www.cato.org/blog/bright-side-stability-glaciers-astore-basin-northwestern-himalaya
Arctic sea ice still too thick for regular shipping route through Northwest Passage
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Sep 29, 2015
Arctic Ice Rebound
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Sep 28, 2015
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2015/09/26/arctic-ice-rebound/
Dramatic Recovery In Arctic Sea Ice In September
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 1, 2015
[SEPP Comment The 2009 to 2012 declining trend changed in 2013.]
Changing Earth
Icelandic volcano’s toxic gas is treble that of Europe’s industry
By Staff Writers, Edinburgh, UK (SPX), Sep 25, 2015
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
GMOs and Junk Science
By Henry Miller and Kavin Senapathy, Project Syndicate, Sep 24, 2015
20 Reasons Not To Feed Your Family Organic
By David Zaruk, ACSH, Sep 29, 2015
http://acsh.org/2015/09/20-reasons-not-to-feed-your-family-organic/
Un-Science or Non-Science?
ASU study finds weather extremes harmful to grasslands
By Staff Writers, Tempe AZ (SPX), Oct 01, 2015
http://www.seeddaily.com/reports/ASU_study_finds_weather_extremes_harmful_to_grasslands_999.html
“They increased precipitation variability on each plot to mimic the projected increased in the frequency of weather extremes such as drought and unusually wet conditions.”
[SEPP Comment: The study would have been more interesting if it was not linked to projections from climate models.]
Lowering Standards
Bank of England: “Climate change a ‘huge’ financial risk”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 30, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/30/bank-of-england-climate-change-a-huge-financial-risk/
Is that you or your eco-warrior wife speaking Mark? Carney feels heat after saying ‘climate change could cause new crash’
By Hugo Duncan, Daily Mail, Oct 1, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
King crabs threaten Antarctic ecosystem due to warming ocean
By Staff Writers, Melbourne FL (SPX), Oct 01, 2015
Link to paper: No barrier to emergence of bathyal king crabs on the Antarctic shelf
By Aronson, et al. PNAS, Sep 28, 2015
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/09/24/1513962112.abstract
[SEPP Comment: The abstract states the area of study was limited to the western Antarctic Peninsula, not the Antarctic. “Among the likely first arrivals are king crabs (Lithodidae), which were discovered recently on the adjacent continental slope.” Boldface added.]
Climate Change and El Niño Will Make Ocean Levels Swing Like a Seesaw
By Padma Nagappan, TakePart.com Sep 30, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
http://news.yahoo.com/climate-change-el-ni-o-ocean-levels-swing-233236093.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Coffee, with a pinch of salt
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 2, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/10/2/coffee-with-a-pinch-of-salt.html
Link to debunked article: Global Coffee Shortage Looms as Market Braces for Climate Change
By Whitney McFerron, Bloomberg, Oct 1, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Low prices of the threat of climate change depress future supplies??]
Lying To Boost The Climate Scare
By Tom Harris, Climate Science Coalition, Daily Caller, Sep 30, 2015
http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/30/lying-to-boost-the-climate-scare/
Oil Giants Form Climate Lobbying Group
By Staff Writers, Environmental Leader, Sep 29, 2015 [H/t Dennis Ambler]
https://www.environmentalleader.com/2015/09/29/oil-giants-form-climate-lobbying-group/
[SEPP Comment: Only one company, Shell, is a major oil producer. What is the World Bank Group doing in this lobbying effort?]
Political Fraud – Van Ypersele Tries Using “Climate Change” As Excuse For Massive Middle East Policy Incompetence!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 28, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Relatively few in U.S., Europe see climate change as a serious threat
By Jill Carle, Pew Research Center, Sep 15, 2015
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Historic New Sustainable Development Agenda Unanimously Adopted by 193 UN Members
By Staff Writers, UN, Sep 25, 2015
The UN’s Hard-to-Swallow Climate Fare
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, Sep 29, 2015
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2015/09/uns-hard-swallow-climate-fare/
Questioning European Green
£6 Billion Of Crappy Renewable Energy: Just What The Third World Needs
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Sep 29, 2015
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2015/09/29/6-billion-crappy-renewable-energy-just-third-world-needs/
Climate Saviours & Europe’s Mad Rush For Diesel
By Dominic Lawson, The Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Sep 27, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/dominic-lawson-climate-saviours-europes-mad-rush-for-diesel/
Non-Green Jobs
Shale revolution revitalizing U.S. manufacturing
By William F. Shughart II, San Diego Union Tribune, Sep 23, 2015
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2015/sep/24/shale-revolution-american-manufacturing/
“Since 2010, U.S. manufacturers have added 1 million jobs. While those additions are still only a fraction of the manufacturing jobs lost during decades of offshoring, the turnaround is striking.”
Government comes under increasing pressure to scrap green charges as Redcar steel plant closure sparks outburst
By Peter Campbell, Daily Mail, UK, Sep 28, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Funding Issues
Time to switch from ‘climate change’ to ‘climate justice’: Modi
By Anisha Khatun, The Samaya, Sep 26, 2015
http://odishasamaya.com/news/time-to-switch-from-climate-change-to-climate-justice-modi/57141
[SEPP Comment: If the West believes its non-science on global warming, pay us for you abusing the climate!]
UK’s £10billion plan to help Third World adopt more green energy: Cameron announces 50% increase in amount of aid spent on controversial initiative
By Jack Doyle, Daily Mail, UK, Sep 28, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
UK Energy Minister gives £5.8 billion of funding to UN to make everyone richer, may stem migration too
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 29, 2015
The Political Games Continue
Ideology adds heat to the debate on climate change — Jennifer Marohasy
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Sep 28, 2015
A Fault That Knocks Politicians From The Environmental Moral High Ground.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Oct 2, 2015
http://drtimball.com/2015/a-fault-that-knocks-politicians-from-the-environmental-moral-high-ground/
Aussie Government Climate Skeptic Purge Continues
Guest essay by Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 27, 2015
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/09/27/aussie-government-climate-skeptic-purge-continues/
The Uncertain Republican Congressional Trumpet
By Alan Carlin, Carlin Economics and Science, Oct 2, 2015
http://www.carlineconomics.com/archives/2186
Litigation Issues
Federal District Court Blocks Obama Water Rule
H. Sterling Burnett, Heartland, Sep 23, 2015
Minnesota Hearing Addresses the Social Cost of Carbon
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Sep 30, 2015
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/09/minnesota-hearing-addresses-the-social-cost-of-carbon/
[SEPP Comment: Will the next “cause” be the social cost of water vapor?]
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Carbon Floor Pricing contributing to UK steel crisis, says think tank
Global Warming Policy Foundation calls on government to scrap costly policy
By Staff Writers, Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Oct 1, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Michigan’s Wind Energy Mandate Costs Each Family Nearly $4,000
By Jack Spencer, Michigan Capitol Confidential, Oct 2, 2015
http://www.michigancapitolconfidential.com/21783
Link to report overview and report: Renewable Portfolio Standards: Michigan
By Staff Writers, Institute of Political Economy, Utah State University, Sep 27, 2015
http://www.usu.edu/ipe/index.php/renewable-portfolio-standards-michigan/
Minnesota weather clouds solar power potential
By Tom Steward, Watchdog.org, Sep 28, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://watchdog.org/239957/minnesota-weather-clouds-solar-power-potential/
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Finalizes Costly, Unnecessary Ozone Rule
By Staff Writers, IER, Oct 1, 2015
http://instituteforenergyresearch.org/analysis/epa-finalizes-costly-unnecessary-ozone-rule/
Link to Air Quality Trends
By Staff Writers, EPA, Sep. 12, 2015
https://web.archive.org/web/20150912070048/http://www.epa.gov/airtrends/aqtrends.html
“EPA claims that further reducing ozone will lessen a variety of health ailments, including asthma. However, as ozone levels have decreased, asthma rates have actually risen. Specifically, child asthma rates are up 131 percent since 1980, despite falling ozone concentrations. If reducing ozone alleviated asthma as much as EPA claims, one would expect asthma rates to be falling with ozone levels.”
EPA’s Gold King Whitewash, Part III
By Paul Driessen, Master Resource, Sep 28, 2015
https://www.masterresource.org/epa-gold-king/epa-gold-king-whitewash-iii/
EPA To Volkswagen: Emissions Cheating Is Far Worse Than Killing 124 People
Volkswagen’s bombshell admission that it cheated on US emissions testing has become the latest in a string of auto industry scandals driven by the moral hazard of bailouts.
By Edward Niedermeyer, The Federalist, Sep 25, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Background Ozone a Major Issue in U.S. West
By Staff Writers, Pasadena CA (JPL), Oct 01, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Background_Ozone_a_Major_Issue_in_U_S__West_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Also a major summer issue in the East – from vegetation.]
EPA cracks down on oil refinery pollution
By Devin Henry, The Hill, Sep 29, 2015
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/255299-epa-cracks-down-on-oil-refinery-pollution
EPA Finalizes Steam Electric Power Plant Effluent Guidelines
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Sep 30, 2015
Energy Issues – Non-US
Have the Saudis Opened Pandora’s Box?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Sep 29, 2015
https://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2015/09/29/have-the-saudis-opened-pandoras-box/
Final leg of new European gas line completed
Statoil lays gas pipeline across Arctic Circle.
By Daniel Graeber, UPI, Sep 29, 2015 [H/t Toshio Fujita]
[SEPP Comment: The pipeline carries natural gas from north of the Arctic Circle – 66.5º N.]
Energy Issues — US
Does Clean Power Destroy the Economy?
By Jay Hakes, Real Clear Energy, Sep 27, 2015
http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2015/09/27/does_clean_power_destroy_the_economy_108786.html
[SEPP Comment: The analogy with past regulations is false. There were commercially available technologies to deal with particle emissions. There is no commercially available technology to deal with CO2 emissions, despite what administration officials claim. Further, there is no commercially available technology to convert unreliable electricity from solar and wind to reliable electricity on a massive scale.]
Shell Halts Alaska Offshore Exploration After Failing to Find Enough Oil
By Rakteem Katakey and Winnie Zhu, Bloomberg, Sep 28, 2015
TransCanada tries new legal route for Keystone XL
By Daniel J. Graeber, Bismarck, N.D. (UPI), Sep 30, 2015
http://www.oilgasdaily.com/reports/TransCanada_tries_new_legal_route_for_Keystone_XL_999.html
Washington’s Control of Energy
Judge To Obama: You Can’t Regulate Fracking On Federal Lands
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Sep 30, 2015
http://dailycaller.com/2015/09/30/judge-to-obama-you-cant-regulate-fracking-on-federal-lands/
US Court Blocks Obama Administration Rules on Fracking
Editorial, New York Times, Via GWPF, Oct 1, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/us-court-blocks-obama-administration-rules-on-fracking/
[SEPP Comment: Although fracking is highly successful as regulated by states, Washington cannot establish a reasonable set of regulations for federally controlled lands and waters and the New York Times cannot explain the issue to its readers.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
The Shale Shock: How the world has changed
Few understand it, but the shale revolution has opened up additional centuries of low-cost oil and gas for the world.
By Steve Goreham, CDN, Sep 30, 2015
http://www.commdiginews.com/featured/the-shale-shock-how-the-world-has-changed-49211/
Department of Transportation Needs to Complete Regulatory, Data, and Guidance Efforts
By Staff Writers, GAO, Sep 29, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-15-843T
Link to testimony: Pipeline Saftey
By Susan Fleming, GAO Physical Infrastructure Issues, Sep 29, 105
http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/672809.pdf
[SEPP Comment: For oil and natural gas pipelines.]
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Nuclear Power — Rebirth or Renaissance?
By William Tucker, Real Clear Energy, Sepp 24, 2015
http://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2015/09/24/nuclear_power__rebirth_or_renaissance_108782.html
Aussie Nuclear Industry: “renewables won’t get us across the line”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Sep 29, 2015
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Germany Now Faced With Thousands Of Aging Wind Farms
By Gaurav Agnihotri, Oil Pirce.com, Sep 28, 2015
Reality Check: Solar Is Not The Cheapest Form Of Energy
By Michael Lynch, Forbes, Oct 1, 2015
http://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2015/10/01/solar-is-cheapest-reality-check/?ss=energy
Solar Technology’s Glaring Inferiority …Phileas Fogg’s 19th Century Balloon Beats 21st Century Solar Impulse 2 By Over 300 Days!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Sep 26, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The errors in the article take away from the message, the highly publicized solar airplane stopped flying.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Swansea Bay’s £1bn tidal lagoon hit by delay
By Staff Writers, BBC, Oct 2, 2015
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-south-west-wales-34420631
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Do diesels have a future?
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Oct 2, 2015
http://scientific-alliance.org/node/961
[SEPP Comment: Analysis of various alternative to powering automobiles. Question the health dangers of PM2.5 as compared with PM10]
Hybrids and the cost of virtue signaling
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Oct 1, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/10/1/hybrids-and-the-cost-of-virtue-signalling.html
Link to report: Quantifying the impact of real-world driving on total CO2 emissions from UK cars and vans
By Staff Writers, Element Enengy Limited for The Committee on Climate Change, UK, Sep 2015
VW’s Audi says 2.1 mn cars worldwide fitted with emission-cheating software
By Staff Writers, AFP, Sep 28, 2015
https://in.news.yahoo.com/vws-audi-says-2-1-102857125.html
Carbon Schemes
CCS projects may be uninsurable
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Sep 30, 2015
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2015/9/30/ccs-projects-may-be-uninsurable.html
Other News that May Be of Interest
Academic Calls for a Return to Eugenics (to Battle Global Warming)
By William Briggs, The Stream, Oct 1, 2015
https://stream.org/academic-calls-return-eugenics-battle-global-warming/
[SEPP Comment: As absurd as this seems, 20 years ago how many people would have claimed carbon dioxide is a pollutant? Yet, now it is routine.]
Oxford University Student Union bans free speech magazine because it is ‘offensive’
The prestigious university’s Student’s Union was not impressed by the magazine, which is called ‘No Offence’
By Helena Horton, Telegraph, UK, Oct 1, 2015
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BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Climate Murder Conspiracy Complaint Dismissed
By David Brown, The Times, Via GWPF, Sep 28, 2015
http://www.thegwpf.com/climate-murder-conspiracy-complaint-dismissed/
They’re invading!…but then again maybe not
By Staff Writers, Climate Change Predictions.org, Oct 2, 2015
http://climatechangepredictions.org/uncategorized/4499
“Ancient viruses have been lying dormant in Siberian permafrost for centuries. But global warming is about to change that. Scientists have made another massive discovery of ancient (and giant) viruses hidden dormant in the permafrost. As the planet warms, finding these things—and waking them—is going to become more commonplace.
“….. the distant possibility does exist, and as more and more polar thawing occurs, our statistical chance of finding something will grow. But Dr. James Van Etten, a professor at University of Nebraska-Lincoln thinks that a viral outbreak is a worry you can put out of your head. “Certainly,” he says, “I would not lose any sleep over this issue.” The Daily Beast, 27 Sep 2015
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Reblogged this on gottadobetterthanthis and commented:
–
Worth repeating:
Société de Calcul Mathématique: Several French mathematicians under the Société de Calcul Mathématique SA wrote a 195 page white paper on global warming and the political ramifications of the actions of its proponents. The title of the paper is well put: “The battle against global warming: an absurd, costly and pointless crusade.” Writing from the perspective of French, European, and world policy, the paper finds an enormous impact on the economy with every activity affected. It also states:
“The impact on the entire field of scientific research is particularly clear and especially pernicious. No project can be launched, on any subject whatsoever, unless it makes direct reference to global warming. You want to look at the geology of the Garonne Basin? It is, after all, an entirely normal and socially useful subject in every respect. Well, your research will be funded, approved and published only if it mentions the potential for geological storage of CO2. It is appalling.
…
Pernicious: having a harmful effect, especially in a gradual or subtle way.
Re: Royal Dutch Shell abandoning exploration: It’s both fun and easy for environmentalists, the media and politicians to make a piñata out of an energy company and it gets ignored when energy prices should be lower. Liberals call that a win-win.
I see Dr. Roy Spencer has released the September, 2015 UAH global temperature departure of 0.25°C. According to my spreadsheet this yields a zero slope (4 decimal places) trend line for the last 18 years and 6 months.
Thanks, Ken Haapala (SEPP),
The debate goes on; the IPCC vs the world it wants to dominate. Inconvenient evidence is discarded, convenient evidence is hyped. Taxpayers are fleeced, is the bottom line.
That many of the model point to similar effects may just be a reflection of a common parentage. How independent are the models from one another? Only results from truly independent approaches ought to be used in a meta-analysis.
TWTW?
Is it one of these??
Abbr. Meaning
TWTW The Week That Was (TV show)
TWTW The Way Things Work (book by David Macaulay)
TWTW The World This Weekend (CBC Radio One)
TWTW Teaching with the Web (Kingsbury Communications; California)
TWTW The Way They Were
TWTW The Will to Win