Picking Cherry Blossoms

Letter to the Editor (orginally published in the Washington post, also submitted to WUWT)

For the second year in a row, we’ve had peak cherry blossoms later than the average date of March 31. In 2013, they were nine days late; this year they were 10 days late. That’s not a big surprise; after all, the usual peak date itself is just an average.

But what is curious is how The Post’s coverage of cherry blossoms veers into discussions of global warming in some years but not in others. In 2012, when the blossoms peaked on March 20, one front-page article was ominously headlined, “Much-too-early bloomers? As temperatures rise, scientists speculate that cherry blossom times could advance by a month.” A Capital Weather Gang blog post that month was headlined, “D.C.’s cherry blossoms have shifted 5 days earlier: What about global warming and the future?” Why enjoy an early spring when you can turn it into a teachable moment?

Needless to say, this news angle wilted a bit in the past two years.

When it comes to global warming, the recent late blossoms don’t prove much. But for that matter, neither did the early blossoms of years past.

Sam Kazman, Washington

The writer is general counsel for the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

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119 thoughts on “Picking Cherry Blossoms

  1. I believe one of the Earliest blossoming dates, was set in 1943, which places it right on the verge of the last cooling cycle. Someone correct me if I am wrong…

  2. Just another instance that in climate science only the theory and the model matter, actual observations can be safely ignored when awkward.

    Why are we still calling climate science a science? As practiced today, it is as much a science as astrology, Scientology and homeopathy.

  3. The CAGW myth-makers will quickly grab anything to “prove” their theory – and drop it just as fast when it becomes “Inconvenient” for their righteous crusade.
    Coral, polar bears, glaciers, Australian water supplies, Pacific atolls, food shortages etc., etc., etc.,
    Shades of Monty Python’s LoB sandal scene…….

  4. Here in se BC we’ve had a Windermere Lake “ice out” contest for over 40 years. The bet money for closest time goes to charity. Four of the last 5 years have been record late or very late ice outs. Does this prove much, probably not. Do I throw it out there to bug my constantly exagrerating, warmist friends, you bet.

  5. …and if this trend continues

    Wasn’t that long ago they also published an op-ed saying they would be able to grow bananas

  6. Why do we bow to the term ‘climate change’?  Climate has been changing since the beginning of time and there is nothing  we can do about it other than cope.  Let us not forget how the hucksters and charlatans tried to foment fear with the term ‘global warming’ but the darn planet didn’t cooperate so rather than trash their hypothesis they changed the terminology.  Today any weather event qualifies as ‘climate change’ and the more we use this term the more legitimately we give it.   A while back there was a discussion of terminology  and  someone proposed the term ‘Climate Rambunctiousness’ which I  believe puts all this into the correct perspective.  

  7. Peter Miller:

    Why are we still calling climate science a science? As practiced today, it is as much a science as astrology, Scientology and homeopathy.

    Let’s be fair. it’s probably more comparable as a science to, say, economics and psychology than scientology and homeopathy.

  8. The Post’s articles linked to are about long term trends. The data from the last two years don’t have much impact on the trend. Thus, it is Kazman who is cherry blossom picking.

  9. Here’s what we’re up against. Asked a relative to “show me the data” that shows temps climbing over the last century, or whenever. She shows me a graph, which I point out is a) a graph of the data after it was heavily processed with algorithms unspecified, not “the data”, and b) a projection into the future, not data from observations made in the past. Response: “So what?’

    You’ll never believe who she voted for in every election since she turned 18.

  10. Re: Monty Python.
    I was thinking the CAGW Climate Theory discussions are quickly approaching the Dead Parrot Sketch.

    Mr. Praline: ‘E’s not pinin’! ‘E’s passed on! This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! ‘E’s expired and gone to meet ‘is maker! ‘E’s a stiff! Bereft of life, ‘e rests in peace! If you hadn’t nailed ‘im to the perch ‘e’d be pushing up the daisies! ‘Is metabolic processes are now ‘istory! ‘E’s off the twig! ‘E’s kicked the bucket, ‘e’s shuffled off ‘is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin’ choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-PARROT!!

  11. “The Post’s articles linked to are about long term trends. The data from the last two years don’t have much impact on the trend. Thus, it is Kazman who is cherry blossom picking”

    No, it’s you who are cherry picking, which in this case means reading selectively. Try reading the last sentence.

    “When it comes to global warming, the recent late blossoms don’t prove much. But for that matter, neither did the early blossoms of years past.”

  12. Felix says:
    April 26, 2014 at 8:02 am

    Mr Kazman’s letter did not argue trends one way or another. Your statement regarding trends is therefor silly. What he did question is the Post’s using early blooms to argue global warming was here, yet when blooms are later there is no corresponding comment.

    cheers,

    gary

  13. Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get. Since the consensus folks always expect warm, warm weather is always climate.

  14. Here is a Japanese record of Cherry Blossoms spanning the last 1000 years

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf

    “The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources
    of information on the impacts of climate change on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. “

  15. I don’t know about trends but i can tell you that here in the North West of England we didn’t see the first cherry blossoms until as late as two weeks ago. The Apples are in blossom now. my English basil is all but died off, my rosemary is struggling. Half my tomato plants are stunted and struggling that I’m concerned they won’t even get to fruit before the weather turns again. Potatoes? Don’t even go there. of the 20 plus plants i am expecting only two have even shown their faces above ground.
    Does this mean anything for the climate? Of course not but it has a bloody annoying effect on my summer larder!

  16. David L. Hagen says:
    April 26, 2014 at 8:26 am
    Richard Primack and Hiroyoshi Higuchi attributed Japan’s recent earlier cherry blossom festivals to global warming.
    Actually, most of it to Urban Development…

  17. The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided closes with a contour map of cherry blossom dates in the region of Osaka. There is a clear bullseye on the city center. The record of Cherry Trees is defining the Urban Heat Island effect.

    … to measure how many days earlier plants flower as a result of the urban heat island effect. At locations near Kyoto, Osaka and Tokyo, urban, suburban, and rural
    locations had similar times of cherry blossom festivals in the 1950s.
    This indicates that urban, suburban, and rural areas still had essentially the same temperatures in the spring. Over the next 50 years, however, urban, suburban, and rural sites at each of these cities gradually began to diverge in flowering times, with urban areas flowering earlier than nearby rural and suburban areas. By the 1980s, the warmer temperatures in the city had shifted the flowering of cherry trees by eight days earlier in central Tokyo in comparison with nearby rural areas, and four to five days earlier in central Kyoto and Osaka than in their nearby rural areas.

    The temperature effects of urbanization on flowering times for Osaka City have been mapped in detail. In 1989, the first flowering times of somei-yoshino cherries were recorded at around eighty locations in Osaka City. First flowering was recorded starting on March 19 at locations in the city center. Flowering was recorded at successively later dates at distances farther from the city center. At around seven kilometers from the city center, plants were starting to flower as late as March 22 to March 27
    ……
    Even the cherry trees in Washington, DC, donated by the Japanese government, are responding to higher urban temperatures by flowering one week earlier than in the past, providing an example of the biological impacts of climate change right on the doorstep of the American government.

  18. It is also possible that the higher CO2 provides a faster time to blossoms from the time when the tree leaves dormancy in the spring.

  19. Interesting how the article on the Kyoto trees from Mr. Isvalgaard discusses how the urban heat island effect makes the trees bloom early.

  20. So that’s why the daffodils that never stray far from home flower first! OK, so we impact micro-regional temperature through UHI. How much does worldwide urbanization raise worldwide temps? Does UHI ever stay out late and fraternize with that floozy CO2? What do their kids look like? Are they hot ?

  21. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 8:18 am
    Here is a Japanese record of Cherry Blossoms spanning the last 1000 years

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf

    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    There was another study by Aono that I’ve unfortunately lost the link to that quantified the UHI using cherry blossom dates between rural and urban settings at similar latitude and elevation. When the resulting UHI estimation was subtracted from those parts of the data exposed to it, the over all trend was still positive, but the uptick at the end disappeared. If I recall correctly, the city used to quantify the UHI was Kyoto, which I found rather amusing.

  22. @Hans Erren at 8:56 am
    Do you have a link?
    All I can find is a gavin @ 7 March 2014 that made a prediction based on trend of May 3 and has a less that 22% chance of anytime before April 26 (2014 breakup day)

    This suggests that a date as late as May 20 (as in 2013) is very unexpected even without any climate trends (<0.7%) and even more so with (<0.2%), but that the odds of a date before April 29 have more than doubled (from 10% to 22%) with the trend. The most favored date is May 3rd (with no trend it would have been May 6th), but the odds of the break-up happening in that single 24 hour period are only around 1 in 14.

  23. So, if the blossoms are occurring later (last two years), are we experiencing global cooling? Less UHI affect?
    Go easy on me – I’m just an average guy not an academic.

  24. Here in Vancouver, BC, our cherry blossoms are just finishing up, and we had a relatively mild winter. I have no idea when the average is for coastal BC (or Japan – Cherry blossoms are very big!) however it would be an interesting research area for some student looking for a project that is visible and obvious for warming/cooling and trying to figure out what is an influence on blossoms besides the weather (if something else is an influence)…

  25. The record of US cherry trees kept by the US Park service is here. This goes from 1921 through 2011, nowhere near as long as the Japanese record, but it shows clearly there is nothing unprecedented about an April 10 bloom, just as there was nothing unprecedented about a March 20th bloom that got Harry Reid all a-twitter in 2012. The document does not say whether these dates are first bloom or peak bloom.

    The US Park Service record records bloom for two different varieties — Yoshino and Kwanzan — Yoshino appears to bloom about 14 days earlier. From the dates given in the USPS article referenced from the Washington Post article, it appears they are talking about the Yoshino variety. The actual quote from the USPS cherry blossom expert Robert DeFeo is:

    It really only matters as to what happens from now on,” he said. “All the warm weather before did not move the cherries along. But now, yes. Now is the time where, if it gets really, really warm, things could accelerate. … My gut tells me [the bloom] might be a little early.

    On that basis, the Washington Post went on to speculate:

    Although it seems highly unlikely, a March 15 date this year would put the bloom at its peak before the festival even starts and leave most of the celebration blossomless.

    And then of course, there are the obligatory models:

    According to the more dire global warming scenario the scientists used — one with unchecked global population growth — the District’s cherry trees could be blooming 29 days earlier by 2080 and 13 days earlier by 2050.

    A less severe scenario, with eventually declining population, had the trees blooming 10 days earlier by 2080 and five days earlier by 2050.

    Meanwhile, back on planet Earth, the final referenced prediction for cherry blooms was:

    Wednesday morning [March 12th], the agency [US Park Service] announced that the bloom should now begin March 18 — two days before this year’s National Cherry Blossom festival begins — and peak between March 20 and 23.

    Which if you consult the aforementioned USPS record of bloom dates is well within what has been previously observed. Earliest recorded Yoshino peak bloom is March 15 (1990) and latest is April 16 (1970).

    March 20th is, however, the earliest opening date of the festival, which put the festival goers right at peak bloom. I hope they enjoyed it without worrying needlessly about pending climate doom.

  26. Gaa! botched the blockquote tags. WUWT readers will no doubt figure out where the DeFeo quote ends and I pick back up again.

  27. davidmhoffer says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:19 am (replying to)

    lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 8:18 am
    Here is a Japanese record of Cherry Blossoms spanning the last 1000 years

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf

    Without going into a lot math, even though the PDF file you referenced from http://www.lief.org specifically followed their CAGW religion and claimed that today’s cherry blossom festival prove that today’s temperatures are the hottest ever over the past 1000 years, that’s not actually the case.

    None of the recent cherry blossom temperature proxies are hotter than the dates between 1000 and 1450, and that period was spanning a length of many more years than today.

    Further, though the increase in recent years was steadily upward, that increase is ALSO a “proof” of the Little Ice Age over in Japan – There is a very distinct “COLD PERIOD” in Japan between 1600 and 1900! Now, what I cannot explain is why the MWP “peak” in Japan trailed that in Europe and elsewhere by 200 years, nor why the LIA “dip” in Japan was 200 years later than in Europe.

  28. Now, what I cannot explain is why the MWP “peak” in Japan trailed that in Europe and elsewhere by 200 years, nor why the LIA “dip” i Japan was 200 years later than in Europe.
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Curry’s stadium wave?

  29. Alexander Feht says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:02 am

    “The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided is a decidedly AGW promulgating article.”

    Alexander, read the article, it shows that the urban heat island effect is real.

    Re article:

    This a real treemometer! I think if we chose flowering species around the world for keeping temperature it would be the most definitive and be safe from algorithms used to discipline thermometers by the “CAGW department of corrections”.

  30. Alexander Feht says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:02 am
    The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided is a decidedly AGW promulgating article.
    It shows the data. (Mis)interpret them according to your own bias.

  31. RACookPE1978 says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:49 am

    Might I suggest lag between Atlantic & Pacific basins in the thermohaline circulation, aka ocean conveyor belt, great ocean conveyor, global conveyor belt or meridional overturning circulation (which isn’t quite the same thing)?

  32. The data analysis that was in WUWT, Posted on April 24, 2014 by Willis Eschenbach, and Seattle’s math contribution, are vary appropriate to this discussion. The End Times are statistically different.

  33. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 10:12 am
    Alexander Feht says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:02 am
    The Japan Cherry Trees link Leif provided is a decidedly AGW promulgating article.
    It shows the data. (Mis)interpret them according to your own bias.
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    I’ve read the original studies by Aono that this article references and they didn’t strike me as particularly alarmist. That said, let’s keep in mind that cherry blossoms as a proxy suffer from some of the same limitations as tree rings. For example, they tell you absolutely zero about temps in the days following the blossom date. They are representative of temps over a very small part of the year. I’ve lived through plenty of harsh winters that that were accompanied by an early spring, and mild winters that were accompanied by a late spring as examples.

  34. I have just totaled the TSI per cycle between 1889 and 2008 and the CET Maximum temperature per cycle between the same cycles. They correlate 0.966851656.

    TSI T Max
    1889-1901 206235.1697 166.8
    1902-1913 181648.5013 152.7
    1913-1922 154349.3985 116.0
    1922-1933 180288.8432 140.9
    1933-1943 166644.4585 132.0
    1943-1953 166645.3448 133.5
    1953-1964 172128.3665 143.7
    1964-1976 196692.6729 157.2
    1976-1985 154380.2623 116.8
    1985-1997 196708.3582 162.1
    1997-2008 184431.2763 155.6
    Correlation 0.966851656

    Don’t know why but there you go.

  35. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 8:18 am

    Here is a Japanese record of Cherry Blossoms spanning the last 1000 years

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf

    “The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources
    of information on the impacts of climate change on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. “

    Thanks. Even before reading I guessed that Urban Heat Island effect would be discussed. Here is a snippet.

    …….
    …..Due to the abundant records of cherry blossom festival records at numerous locations in Japan, it is possible to use the flowering dates of the Somei-yoshino to measure how many days earlier plants flower as a result of the urban heat island effect. At locations near Kyoto, Osaka and Tokyo, urban, suburban, and rural locations had similar times of cherry blossom festivals in the 1950s. This indicates that urban, suburban, and rural areas still had essentially the same temperatures in the spring. Over the next 50 years, however, urban, suburban, and rural sites at each of these cities gradually began to diverge in flowering times, with urban areas flowering earlier than nearby rural and suburban areas. By the 1980s, the warmer temperatures in the city had shifted the flowering of cherry trees by eight days earlier in central Tokyo in comparison with nearby rural areas, and four to five days earlier in central Kyoto and Osaka than in their nearby rural areas……

    …..At around seven kilometers from the city center, plants were starting to flower as late as March 22 to March 27, as much as eight days later than in the city center…..

    Now here is something very interesting a bit odd. Only anecdotal though.

    The Nation – 15 January, 2014
    Blossoms in the snow
    Pinkish-white cherry blossoms, or sakura as they are known here, peek cautiously from the trees as the cold wind blows, fluttering gently as if welcoming the spring with a round of applause……

    While the southern part of Japan is covered with cherry blossoms, Kushiro, a city to the southeast of Hokkaido, is still boasting a blanket of pure white snow.

    http://www.nationmultimedia.com/travel/Blossoms-in-the-snow-30224249.html

  36. Kelvin Vaughan says:
    April 26, 2014 at 11:43 am
    I have just totaled the TSI per cycle between 1889 and 2008 and the CET Maximum temperature per cycle between the same cycles. They correlate 0.966851656.
    The reason they correlate is that the cycles have different lengths – from 10 to 13 years – so simply ‘totaling’ the data will just correlate with the cycle length. If you divide each total by the length of the cycle the square of the correlation [the fraction of the variability that is ‘explained’ by the correlation] falls to R2 = 0.09, thus not significant.

  37. Since Japan and the cherry blossom has be brought up I thought I would take a closer look.

    Abstract – 2009
    The impact of climate change on cherry trees and other species in Japan
    …….In Kyoto, records of the timing of celebrations of cherry blossom festivals going back to the 9th century reconstruct the past climate and demonstrate the local increase in temperature associated with global warming and urbanization. This record is probably the longest annual record of phenology from anyplace in the world and shows that cherries are currently flowering earlier than they have at any time during the previous 1200 years. Detailed mapping of cherry tree flowering times in and around Osaka and other cities in Japan show that urbanization causes plants to flower earlier within the city environs than in nearby parks and outlying suburban areas. Flowering records from a large cherry arboretum at Mt. Takao, on the outskirts of Tokyo, show that both among and within species, early flowering is associated with greater responsiveness to temperature variation……..

    http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.03.016

    What does the following tell me about global warming? It doesn’t even tell me much about Japanese warming!

    Abstract – 2012
    The phenology of cherry blossom (Prunus yedoensis “Somei-yoshino”) and the geographic features contributing to its flowering
    ………Our observations were carried out across the Okayama Plain, which included Okayama City (about 700,000 inhabitants), from the winter of 2008 to the spring of 2009. Local air temperature (AT) and the globe temperature (GT) were recorded at the tree height. The flowering dates (FDs) of P. yedoensis were earliest in the central commercial area (located at the center of the plain), followed by the north residential area (further inland), and finally the south residential area (seaward). The recorded FDs were related to the period-averaged daily maximum/minimum AT and GT, and the phenologically effective AT and GT defined in this study. Of these parameters, the phenologically effective GTs correlated most with the FDs. …….

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-011-0496-4

  38. By now you have to question the usefulness of the cherry blossom dates for measuring climate. There’s too much noise from UHI.

    Paper – 1977
    Washington’s “Free” 300-Station Microscale Weather Network

    …..Washington’s annual Cherry Blossom Parade would usually have to take place 3 weeks later if it were held in the northern part of the suburbs, yet still inside the Beltway. Volunteer observations have shown the growing season to be 3 1/2 months longer in the warmest part of the heat island than in the outer suburb valleys 25 miles away in two of the past 4 years, despite variations in elevation of only 500 feet……

    http://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/gtr/gtr_ne25/gtr_ne25_098.pdf

  39. Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 12:27 pm (adding to your previous comment)

    By now you have to question the usefulness of the cherry blossom dates for measuring climate. There’s too much noise from UHI.

    Curse you Red Baron! 8<) I was going to point out that ALL of the recent area-elevation-regional cherry-blossom data you have presented validates the UHI impact around EVERY city worldwide: gradual warming up from the regional LIA "low" and a modern rise proportional to the distance from each city center. (Even the cherry blossom data shows the least recent rise nearest the coastlines, and – along the coast, furthest from the harbor. )

  40. I have heard about Kyoto and the cherry blossom bloom. Here are some before and after aerial photos of the city.

    1955 – Single [story] shacks

    Aerial view of central Kyoto, 1955

    Modern times – Skyscrapers galore!

    Kyoto Aerial View

  41. I think a much better proxy for climate is not the early year start for cherry blossom picking but actually the early year end for my picking of the nose. During the winter time heating season the indoor air dryness causes my normal nose drippings to thicken, thus blocking those vital airway passages. To maintain proper nasal airway function I must use an index finger carefully inserted into that passage to scoop out the blockage. I have noticed over the years an increasingly later date in which I must perform this necessary chore. I have also noticed a later date at which people are willing to be seen with me in public.

    Based upon those two foregoing metrics I think, if that later yearly date for the end of my nose picking should shift to an earlier date, well then, society should spend trillions of dollars and a complete downward modification of living standards and individual freedom to insure against an earlier picking of my nose.

    (Although my friends, if I still continue to have any, would probably prefer the earlier date rather than the later date.)

  42. Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 12:48 pm
    Sorry, not before and after photos of the same part of the city, but I hope you get a rough idea.
    I have been to Kyoto at about both the times you mention and your general impression is mine as well.

  43. Since reading a bit about Washington’s cherry blossom tree location I thought I would take a closer look. The following is just for the SUMMER.

    Abstract
    Urban heat island
    The phenomenon of an urban heat island was investigated by the use of Landsat/Thematic Mapper data sets collected over the metropolitan area of Washington, DC. By combining the derived spectral albedos and temperatures, surface energy composites of five surface categories were analysed. The results indicate that urban heating is attributable to a large excess in heat from the rapidly heating urban surfaces consisting of buildings, asphalt, bare-soil and short grasses. In summer, the symptoms of diurnal heating begin to appear by mid-morning and can be about 10°C warmer than nearby woodlands.

    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01431169208904271#.U1wRGJx9CHQ

    I wish I could see this abstract or even full paper.

    1964
    Notes from a Study of the Microclimatology of the Washington, D. C. Area for the Winter and Spring Seasons

    http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/00431672.1964.9927020?journalCode=vwws20#.U1wSBZx9CHQ

  44. Gary Pearse, Leif Svalgaard, David M. Hoffer:

    I’ve read the article, I’ve seen the data.
    It seems that you prefer to skip the first couple of paragraphs.
    A CAGW promulgating drivel.

  45. Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 1:12 pm
    The phenomenon of an urban heat island was investigated by the use of Landsat/Thematic Mapper data sets…I wish I could see this abstract or even full paper.

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/UHI-Effect.pdf

    Alexander Feht says:
    April 26, 2014 at 1:17 pm
    It seems that you prefer to skip the first couple of paragraphs. A CAGW promulgating drivel.
    Nonsense. They say: “many of these studies of climate change are from cities where additional warming is associated with urbanization”.

  46. With the following bear in mind modern day Urban Heat Island effects.

    Abstract – 2010
    Clarifying springtime temperature reconstructions of the medieval period by gap-filling the cherry blossom phenological data series at Kyoto, Japan

    ……….We then reconstructed a nearly continuous series of March mean temperatures based on 224 years of cherry flowering data, including 51 years of previously unused data, to clarify springtime climate changes. We also attempted to estimate cherry full-flowering dates from phenological records of other deciduous species, adding further data for 6 years in the tenth and eleventh centuries by using the flowering phenology of Japanese wisteria (Wisteria floribunda). The reconstructed tenth century March mean temperatures were around 7°C, indicating warmer conditions than at present. Temperatures then fell until the 1180s, recovered gradually until the 1310s, and then declined again in the mid-fourteenth century.
    \http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00484-009-0272-x

  47. RobRoy says:
    April 26, 2014 at 12:47 pm
    The paper on Cherry trees seems to refer to UHI as Climate Change.
    WUWT??

    UHI climate change is the proven sort. I’ve no trouble with that. Other candidates for climate change are speculative at best. (LIA recovery not part of this discussion.)

  48. Here in the fringes of Toronto my garden is being graced by snowdrops (as well as crocuses, dwarf iris, species tulips, and scilla). Snowdrops? In late April? They have usually withered away by late March, and I’ve often seen them blooming here in February. Gloomy, late wintery weather is lingering (mind you- also reminiscent of a fine English summer’s day).

  49. The article Lief provided, though a pro-AGW article, actually proves the cycles we’ve been discussing at various points. If you look at the chart they provide it clearly shows that the current peak is no different than the one that existed between 1100-1300 CE. Or, the time we refer to as the “medieval warm period.” It fell, not surprisingly, during the subsequent “Little Ice Age.” It began rising again in the 1800s, when the LIA ended and the current warm period began.

  50. I too live on the fringes of Toronto and I won’t be opening my swimming pool this first May weekend as I normally do, every year. Checking the 14 day forecast, It could be delayed many days yet. That’s your inconvenient truth, right there. I’m calling The Post for some coverage.

  51. Leif Svalgaard has an Obama-like audacity to call “nonsense” my observation that the article he linked is promulgating the AGW ideology.

    The article in question begins thus:

    Climate change is already having an influence on plants throughout the world, with warming trends creating conditions that cause many plant species to extend to cooler zones on mountain slopes or farther north of their original ranges. Plants are leafing out earlier in the spring and holding leaves longer in the autumn, creating an extended growing season. Of all of the characteristics of plants that relate to global warming, the timing of flowering is the one for which there are the greatest number of observations. These data demonstrate that plants are now flowering earlier than they did a few decades ago, and that changes are mainly a product of temperature increase, rather than a result of other aspects of the weather.

    You make your own conclusions. Arguing with Mr. Svalgaard is tantamount to arguing with a drunk bully on the street corner.

  52. Alexander Feht says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:01 pm
    “Climate change is already having an influence on plants throughout the world, with warming trends creating conditions that cause many plant species to extend to cooler zones “
    Fact 1: the climate changes
    Fact 2: it has warmed since the LIA
    Fact 3: plant react to that
    Fact 4: the authors show that some of the warming is antropogenic [UHI effect] with which nobody will disagree.
    Fact 5: you distort their message
    Fact 6: I’m not arguing with you, instead I’m attempting to teach you [probably not successfully].

  53. We have this in the conclusion.

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf

    Conclusion
    The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources of information on the impacts of climate change on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. Because cherry trees have such great cultural importance in Japan, the results of this climate change research have been widely appreciated and publicized, both in Japan and among the international scientific community. Even the cherry trees in Washington, DC, donated by the Japanese government, are responding to higher urban temperatures by flowering one week earlier than in the past, providing an example of the biological impacts of climate change right on the doorstep of the American government.

    The authors could also have concluded the following too. I have substituted their words in bold.

    The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources of information on the impacts of Urban Heat Islands on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. Because cherry trees have such great cultural importance in Japan, the results of this Urban Heat Islands research have been widely appreciated and publicized, both in Japan and among the international scientific community. Even the cherry trees in Washington, DC, donated by the Japanese government, are responding to higher urban temperatures by flowering one week earlier than in the past, providing an example of the biological impacts of Urban Heat Islands right on the doorstep of the American government.

  54. Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:31 pm
    Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”
    No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.

  55. I wonder what’s happening in Washington DC in March?

    Abstract
    The urban heat island in winter at Barrow, Alaska
    ……Here, we demonstrate the existence of a strong urban heat island (UHI) during winter. Data loggers (54) were installed in the ∼150 km2 study area to monitor hourly air and soil temperature, and daily spatial averages were calculated using the six or seven warmest and coldest sites. During winter (December 2001–March 2002), the urban area averaged 2.2 °C warmer than the hinterland. The strength of the UHI increased as the wind velocity decreased, reaching an average value of 3.2 °C under calm (<2 m s−1) conditions and maximum single-day magnitude of 6 °C……

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.971/full

    No matter how much they try to duck and dive, the cherry blossom bloom date reported in the press over a couple of years tells me NOTHING about global climate. Nothing.

  56. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:34 pm

    Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:31 pm
    Ohhhhh. Bad bolding. I changed their use of “climate change” for “Urban Heat Islands”
    No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.

    Thanks. I just wich Warmists would focus a little less of man-made greenhouse gases and onto UHI. AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.

  57. Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:49 pm
    AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.
    Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.

  58. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:34 pm
    No problem. It is clear that the AGW caused by the UHI effect is what the authors have in mind and so convincingly show.
    ====
    I’m missing something here and don’t get it…..

    UHI to me would be like local weather…..AGW or climate change or global warming would be, well, like global……

    yet, the paper Leif linked seems to say that UHI and climate change are one and the same???
    …plants moving north, etc

  59. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:55 pm
    Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.
    ===
    woops….Murphy….we posted at the same time

    ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
    To me, they are no where near the same.

  60. Latitude says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:58 pm
    UHI to me would be like local weather…..AGW or climate change or global warming would be, well, like global……
    Because so many stations are in or near cities, their UHI effect will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for this, but poorly methinks

    …plants moving north, etc
    There is also genuine global warming: coming out of the LIA and all that. To separate what is what [is not] is hard.

  61. Latitude says:
    April 26, 2014 at 3:01 pm
    ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
    To me, they are no where near the same.

    We should not try to over-interpret too much. The paper is really about cherry blossom dates in Japan, influenced by both GW and UHI. And hard to separate.

  62. got it….now I just need to let it sink in!
    I wish they had made a clearer distinction…it would give more credence to everything else they said
    thanks Leif

  63. davidmhoffer says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:59 am

    Now, what I cannot explain is why the MWP “peak” in Japan trailed that in Europe and elsewhere by 200 years, nor why the LIA “dip” i Japan was 200 years later than in Europe.
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

    Curry’s stadium wave?

    Good one!

  64. In the spirit of cherry picking: I went over to skepticblog and read the absolute sludge of Prothero’s “it’s not warming”. We (the skeptics) have cherry picked if we choose to take NOW and back up ANY date backwards unless it is at least some 50 years or so it seems. Not allowed to talk about 20 years. Well, the comments were even worse.

    I have decided I am going to tell every warmist unless they act, they are hypocrites and have lost any moral high ground. Had a collegue tell me that we need to enact carbon tax so we can “lead the world” then the problem will get solved.

    My view: he wants me to pay for “leading the world” so finally “all together now” we can fix the problem, well he has to “lead me first”. If he isn’t walking or biking, reducing his dependence on coal, growing his own vegatables, getting off the grid I won’t bother to even listen to a single comment any more.

    I would love to see a 100 pictures of Dana N., S. Lew, Turney, Mann, et. al. roofs and put them right next to a picture of Anthony’s solar roof. Who walks the walk? Time to make them prove they are men of conviction.

    I think I am going to start handing out the Pre-amble to the constitution and encourage them to read about how men of conviction act, besides talk.

    Other wise they are just a real life Monty Python skit in the “Life of Brian” the committee

  65. You have got to feel pity for the Japanese guys and their study of the Kyoto (?) cherry blossom dates. Just another way to measure the UHI effect. What a waste of years of work.

  66. Again thanks to Lief for REALITY CHECK..

    Here is a Japanese record of Cherry Blossoms spanning the last 1000 years

    http://www.leif.org/EOS/Cherry-Trees-Japan.pdf

    “The dates of cherry tree festivals in Japan have emerged as one of the most important sources
    of information on the impacts of climate change on plants. The data set is exceptionally detailed, and extends back in time more than any other known data set on plant flowering times. “

    I notice a stark, obvious, upward trend from 1800 ONWARD.

    You know if those darned pioneer out here in Minnesocold had just used HORSES and handcarts instead of SUV’s, we wouldn’t have a global warming problem. (Whoops, my bad..first IC engine vehicles in MN were around 1910..and the first NOTICEABLE CO2 increases, Mona Loha data were after WWII. Oh, heck, what’s an error of a hundred and fifty years about anyway!

  67. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:55 pm

    Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 2:49 pm
    AGW is global with these folks by the way. The whole planet averaged.
    Yes, but the UHI is also an Anthropogenic influence and because so many stations are in or near cities will show up in the global average too. People try to correct for that, but poorly, IMHO. In any event, the Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.

    You say that the “Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.” I obviously have a serious comprehension problem and I will back you if you agree that I cannot understand. I see their UHI statement but the overwhelming thrust of their article refers to ‘climate change’. My understanding of ‘climate change’ is NOT UHI. UHI has been one of the biggest gripes from our host on WUWT as per global warming or climate change.

    Petty points aside, we know what Warmists mean by global warming and climate change and IT IS NOT UHI.

  68. What’s very evident from these comments is that an alarming amount of you don’t give a fig for my tomatoes or spuds :/

  69. Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 6:15 pm
    You say that the “Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.” I obviously have a serious comprehension problem and I will back you if you agree that I cannot understand. I see their UHI statement but the overwhelming thrust of their article refers to ‘climate change’.
    My reading of the article is that they say the climate has changed. I’ll accept that: the climate changes all the time. Also that it is getting warmer. I’ll accept that too as we are coming out of the LIA, and finally that some of that warming as reflected in the cherry blossom dates is clearly due to the UHI effect. What is there not to understand?

  70. April 26, 2014 at 4:16 pm | joel says

    Not at all, they have decisively discovered the UHI effect of urbanisation of the cities. As Leif has pointed out, the study shows both the global warming resulting from the gradual release from cold of the LIA and the effects of UHI … “And hard to separate.” Extrapolating this, imagine how impossibly difficult it must be then to extract CAGW from the record.

  71. zootcadillac says:
    April 26, 2014 at 6:21 pm

    Because of global cooling (or at least in Eastern Oregon), I don’t even bother planting tomatoes any more until May.

  72. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 3:06 pm

    Latitude says:
    April 26, 2014 at 3:01 pm
    ok, I get the influence part……but they seem to refer to both as the same
    To me, they are no where near the same.
    We should not try to over-interpret too much. The paper is really about cherry blossom dates in Japan, influenced by both GW and UHI. And hard to separate.

    Good. The point of the poster’s letter is spot on. We cannot arrive at any conclusions over a few years of observations.

    When it comes to global warming, the recent late blossoms don’t prove much. But for that matter, neither did the early blossoms of years past.

  73. I’ve distorted nothing, Mr. Svalgaard. I quoted the first paragraph of the article without any changes, and invited all who have no reason to close their eyes to see it for what it is.

  74. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 6:24 pm

    Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 6:15 pm
    You say that the “Japanese article was clearly concerned with the UHI effect.” I obviously have a serious comprehension problem and I will back you if you agree that I cannot understand. I see their UHI statement but the overwhelming thrust of their article refers to ‘climate change’.
    My reading of the article is that they say the climate has changed. I’ll accept that: the climate changes all the time. Also that it is getting warmer. I’ll accept that too as we are coming out of the LIA, and finally that some of that warming as reflected in the cherry blossom dates is clearly due to the UHI effect. What is there not to understand?

    Leif, you are not new to WUWT. You know full well what they mean by global warming and climate change. Look at the headline of the paper you referenced.

    Climate Change and Cherry Tree Blossom Festivals in Japan

    They could have said

    Urban Heat Islands and Cherry Tree Blossom Festivals in Japan

    You may see UHI as climate change but our opponents don’t. I applaud you on your great intellectual effort, but I doubt it will work here. Maybe most of us just don’t understand. That’s Leif. ;-)

  75. Alexander Feht says:
    April 26, 2014 at 6:37 pm
    I’ve distorted nothing, Mr. Svalgaard. I quoted the first paragraph of the article without any changes
    But then added your own misguided and biased interpretation [as the paragraph does not support your contention] and called the whole thing drivel. It seems to me that you must search for drivel much closer to your heart. But perhaps the German proverb Jedem das Seine is applicable here.

  76. Cherry blossoms flowering early is usually a sign that a North Korean leader has had a birthday.

  77. Jimbo says:
    April 26, 2014 at 6:39 pm
    They could have said
    Urban Heat Islands and Cherry Tree Blossom Festivals in Japan

    But then they would have been incorrect, because there is both climate change and UHI.

  78. What’s this? Leif has an argument on WUWT, refuses point blank to consider any other viewpoint than his own? Shocker.

    Next up: One legged ducks, swimming in circles or just an illusion?

  79. zootcadillac says:
    April 26, 2014 at 6:57 pm
    What’s this? Leif has an argument on WUWT, refuses point blank to consider any other viewpoint than his own?
    What’s your problem. You have your viewpoint and I have mine. Do you consider my viewpoint?

  80. I don’t think, with respect Anthony, that when Cherry blossoms are late in flowering, the temp of the soil is a very good factor for trees (deciduous) coming into flower or leaf. Also in 1969, after spending 10 months in Bermuda, we stayed in London, and they were having an Indian summer, in late October, and there were still leaves on deciduous trees, we then traveled up to Lincoln and they had snow and sleet.
    But on the Northern Tablelands of NSW, a late frost and hail, destroyed all flowering fruit trees, in an area where temps had been very mild. However, the night time temps were very low, and my tomatoes would flower and not set fruit.

    But late flowering indicates the soil and moisture are just not warm enough. This could be a signal the warmer weather is late this year.

  81. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 7:01 pm
    What’s your problem. You have your viewpoint and I have mine. Do you consider my viewpoint?
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Yup, and dismissed it.

    The thread’s semantic urination contest is a deliberate attempt to blur the various contributors to global warming. So-called climate science isn’t quite sure there even was a Little Ice Age, let alone how to separate UHI, Little Ice Age recovery, and any other cause of warming. It’s convenient for warmists (who knows about Leif) to allow deliberately imprecise use of language to convey the false message of CAGW.

    Meanwhile, real science (quantum mechanics) has accurately measured the gyromagnetic ratio of the electron to 1 part in a trillion (with a T).

    Until “climate science” can play with the big boys, the least they could do is get the vocabulary right. If you can’t even clearly describe the problem, it’s a little tough to solve it.

  82. Chip Javert says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:02 pm
    The thread’s semantic urination contest is a deliberate attempt to blur the various contributors to global warming.
    My viewpoint is
    1) climate changes
    2) it is now warmer than during the LIA
    3) some of that is due to UHI creeping into the global record
    Where is the blur?

  83. zoot – I didn’t know you grew tomatoes in parts of England. Nor grapes. I lived in Liverpool Lancs for my first few years, and my grandfather grew tomatoes in a greenhouse. I know in Lincolnshire in the early sixties, we couldn’t grow toms easily and that was quite a temperate area.
    You could put up a frame around your early sowings. Just a plastic one. Can’t help you with potatoes, we grow them in Guyra just a bit higher than us. Keep them well mulched. But I know my tomatoes suffered badly from low night temps and although flowered would not set fruit. I have given up growing them now, buy from the supermarket. We have a large tomato production place in Guyra, and they are grown in a large greenhouse and they are pollonated by hand. They were trying to import bumble bees but were not allowed. Some import restrictions involved.
    Give the potatoes a bit more time to sprout. Your soil is yet too cold. Have you tried putting a cooking thermometer in the soil? I do this with some sensitive pot plants.

  84. Just a short note, when I was freezing during one September general election day, I was with a Green who boasted as having a B.Sc, I had a BA majoring in archaeology and palaeoanthropology. When I mentioned the LIA, he said there was no proof of this. Then I went on to detail that growing grapes was out for some years, but they turned the grape presses into printing presses. There is no one so blind as those that won’t see.

  85. lsvalgaard says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:07 pm
    Chip Javert says:
    April 26, 2014 at 9:02 pm
    Yup, and dismissed it.
    And which of my three points do you dismiss?
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Uhhh…all of ‘em. The semantic urination contest has so tainted the conversation that it no longer has credibility.

    As I stated previously (which you’re free to dismiss): Until “climate science” can play with the big boys, the least they could do is get the vocabulary right. If you can’t even clearly describe the problem, it’s a little tough to solve it.

  86. It looks like you are the one who cannot see other people’s viewpoints, Mr. Svalgaard, without resorting to histrionic condescension and infantile insults. But this time you’ve surpassed yourself. “Dem jedem das seine” is not just a German proverb, it is an anti-Semitic slogan used by the lowest scum on Earth at the entrances of their concentration camps. I am sure there are those who will take into account your unfortunate choice of proverbial expressions. Have a good night, my Aryan friend.

  87. Good Grief! Climates of the World were established many years ago by looking for the lines between where certain plants grew or did well and where they did not. The terminology today has changed but the concept remains the same. The idea that the World has one climate, measured by a single temperature is laughable.

    http://geographyias.blogspot.com/2011/04/koppen-climate-classification-system.html

    … Dr. Wladimir Koppen of the University of Graz, in Austria. Koppen was both a climatologist and a plant geographer, so his main interest lay in finding climate boundaries that coincided approximately with boundaries between major vegetation types.

    A major city changes things and the result fits into the Köppen concepts. The UN-IPCC idea of climate by single number is just something someone made up, and is silly.

  88. You know I can’t find where Leif quotes. ‘Jedem das seine” was over Buchenwald, that meant ‘To each his own, idiomatically ‘everyone gets what he deserves” The others had ‘Arbeit macht frei’
    Work will make you free. The Aryan race came through North India, certainly not blonde haired and blue eyed. I have to sign out my computer is so slow, supposed to be 25 Mbps.

  89. Leif:

    With apologies, a more reasoned response to why I dismiss the flower petal discussion:

    (1) Nobody actually has the “original” instrumented climate data – the Climategate boys (Mann, Jones, et al) testified in a US court that it was lost in a fire;

    (2) Computer transforms used to manipulate “original” data have not been made public;

    (3) Temperature data has been materially revised in 3-4 of the IPCC 5-year Assessment Reports. Without data and transform codes, it’s been done on a “trust me” basis.

    (4) Frankly, given we’re haggling over a claimed warming anomaly of 8/10ths of a degree Celsius since 1880, under these circumstances it’s difficult to accept the claim that we know what the instrumented record really is (or was). Sooner or later, satellite data should remediate this problem.

    I am interested in your response to the above, but I just wasn’t trained to do physics like that at Ga Tech. DATA IS A BIG DEAL FOR ME (not to mention Galileo, Newton, Einstein and Feynman, but I digress).

    I accept there has been warming. I accept mankind is contributing somewhat to increased CO2. However, not withstanding 75-100 computer models failing at the 95% confidence level, I have not seen a rigorous physics theory of anthropomorphic CO2 warming (you know: something on the order of a testable prediction of photons interacting with atmospheric gas molecules, etc).

    Thus, imprecise semantic arguments about 1000 years of Japanese flower petals is easy for me to dismiss.

  90. jedem das seine – suum cuique; e.g. Platon.

    MISUSED by the Nazis to a cynical attack on civil rights.

    think this debates distract from the major point UHI.

    brgs – Hans

  91. When Leif said ‘Jeden
    das Seine’ this was a classical citation on behalves of personal rights.

    He could have said ‘As You Like It’ – Shakespeare.

    I read ‘your beliefs are youre own business’.

    The troubles only stem from not mention the classic original – suum cuique.

    brg – Hans

  92. Global warming has shifted the cherry blossoms so early that this is actually next years bloom occurring now!

  93. Chip Javert says:
    April 26, 2014 at 10:12 pm
    “And which of my three points do you dismiss?”
    Uhhh…all of ‘em.

    Well, that puts you so far out that you have no credibility left.

    Alexander Feht says:
    April 26, 2014 at 10:33 pm
    it is an anti-Semitic slogan used by the lowest scum on Earth
    I figured you would know German better than Latin.

    Chip Javert says:
    April 26, 2014 at 11:37 pm
    With apologies, a more reasoned response to why I dismiss the flower petal discussion:
    None of this has any bearing on the Japanese data and their interpretation of them. Data is golden and cannot be just ‘dismissed’.

    Johann wundersamer says:
    April 27, 2014 at 2:11 am
    suum cuique was of course what I meant, but the German version served additionally as a honey pot to yank Mr. Feht’s chain.

  94. Read Steinbeck’s”Grapes of Wrath.” There is a reference to migrant workers harvesting citrus crops in southern Georgia during the depression. Today southern Georgia is too cool during the winters to support commercial citrus production. I’m just a mouth breathing, knuckle dragging, monobrow, slack jawed, stoop shouldered, wrench turning engineer and should know better to question obvious authorities like Hanson and Trenbrith (the tree ring guy) and Mann but I thought that I’d point out Steinbeck’s reference. You know me…

  95. Here in Edinburgh (Scotland) we’ve had a huge (as in huge) number of daffodils and narcissi this year and the cherry blossom is later than last year.

    P.S. I hate the jeering tone of some of the comments on this site.

  96. lsvalgaard says:
    April 27, 2014 at 4:35 am
    Chip Javert says:
    April 26, 2014 at 10:12 pm
    “And which of my three points do you dismiss?”
    Uhhh…all of ‘em.
    Well, that puts you so far out that you have no credibility left.
    ================================================

    Given the choice of being harangued by you, or being true to Galileo/Newton/Einstein/Feynman scientific methodology and response to real data, I easily choose the later.

    I’m not worried about your opinion of my credibility, and that was before you inexplicitly injected the vile anti-Semitic speech.

    If you have the self-awareness to review your performance on this conversation thread, you may want to apologize, change your email ID or both.

  97. Chip Javert says:
    April 27, 2014 at 8:11 am
    Given the choice of being harangued by you, or being true to Galileo/Newton/Einstein/Feynman scientific methodology and response to real data, I easily choose the later.
    The Japanese cherry blossom dates are real data. Be true to that, then.

    I’m not worried about your opinion of my credibility, and that was before you inexplicitly injected the vile anti-Semitic speech.
    Is a German translation of Suum Cuique vile? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suum_cuique .
    It takes certain low-life persons to misinterpret my quote.

    If you have the self-awareness to review your performance on this conversation thread, you may want to apologize, change your email ID or both.
    I do not [like you] hide begin a fake ID.

  98. Bushido! We must stand strong, like the cherry blossom, or die trying!

    As an aside, I do like some of the monikers/aliases/Fake IDs used here. I have never seen fit to hide behind a handle myself – I am proud of all 38 inches of me, from the top of my head to my curly-haired feet – why would I misrepresent myself? But I do enjoy some of the obviously fake handles. Among my current favorites is Box of Rocks – which appeals to me on multiple levels – with More Soylent Green! and Follow The Money following closely behind – all subject to change, of course. As always – well done, ladies and gents.

  99. lsvalgaard says:
    April 27, 2014 at 8:24 am
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    (yawn).

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