The Week That Was: 2013-12-14 (December 14, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
###################################################
Quote of the Week: • “It is hard to overstate the damage done in the recent past by people who thought they knew more about the world than they really did.” – British Economist John Kay in “Obliquity”, 2010 [H/t Judith Curry]
Number of the Week: $43,422
###################################################
THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
A Hearing: The US House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology held a hearing on the relationship between climate and weather featuring John Christy, Roger Pielke, Jr. and David Titley, a former US Navy Rear Admiral and currently a “professor of practice” at Penn State. In her comments on the hearing, Judith Curry stated she did not think that Titley was very effective and he may not have been the best choice for the hearing.
Both Pielke and Christy emphasized using extreme weather events as evidence of climate changes has little scientific support. Pielke also emphasized that, globally, the costs of weather related losses have not increased since 1990 as a portion of Gross Domestic Product, and that extreme weather events have not increased since at least 1970.
Christy used the opportunity to challenge the entire climate establishment and its faulty models. He stated: “I see two things here, (1) the need to go back to the drawing board on climate modeling with special attention to the causes of natural variations and with a rigorously independent validation program, and (2) the world community needs to be exposed to the real debates in climate science rather than statements amounting to a consensus of those who already agree with a certain consensus.”
In his written testimony Christy reinforced his remarks by asserting that extreme events are poor metrics for climate change and by their rarity run the danger of setting up a non-falsifiable hypothesis. That is, whatever the event is, it is consistent with any hypothesis. Such an attitude does not advance science. Science advances by constantly testing specific, falsifiable predictions based on hypotheses (assertions).
Christy presented a new (to SEPP at least) graph showing 102 model runs of atmospheric temperatures in the tropics organized into 24 groupings by types of models, six of which were models created by U.S. institutions. He compares these model groupings with observations from six independent sources, the average from four weather balloon data sets and the average from two satellite data sets. In general, the models over-estimated the observed temperatures by 2 to 5 times.
Further, Christy brought up a 2013 study by Stephen and Bony in which the authors test four separate models against a very simplified earth, the surface of which is all oceans. The purpose was to reveal the impact of warming on the climate system (whatever the cause), particularly how it affects clouds and rain. The models not only produced different results in terms of magnitude, but also in sign (positive or negative)! In addition, Christy brought up a paper recently published by Swanson, who compared the latest models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) with the ones used earlier. According to Christy, Swanson found that the newer models are worse at depicting actual climate variation than the earlier ones. Swanson suggests the reason the models are worse is that the models have been adjusted to try to replicate Arctic warming and now severely overestimate warming for the rest of the globe. [A case of man-made global warming?]
Christy reminded the members of the committee that 17 years ago he testified before the committee that the climate models over estimate warming by 2 to 4 times of what is being observed by satellites. He stated we still do not know “… what portion of the recent modest change is natural and what portion might be human-caused.” He concluded with: “Climate models are promoted as tools that are able to discriminate natural climate events versus those that might happen as a result to increases in greenhouse gases due to human activities and have been used by EPA for regulatory actions.” The climate models have not demonstrated acceptable skill in depicting even fundamental, large-scale variations. “It is unfortunate, in my opinion, that recent policy has been made based on the projections of these faulty models. Climate science has a long way to go.”
Pielke reports that Titley invoked the incantation, “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” – for what purpose I am not sure. I doubt he realizes that the phrase originates in debates over the existence of God. Further, the hearing ended on a religious argument between Titley and Spencer [Christy]. Perhaps Titley was influenced by Senators Boxer and Whitehouse who questioned Spencer’s religious beliefs. This attitude that religious belief somehow diminishes scientific integrity reflects the desperation of some in the climate establishment. Maybe the next step is to claim that those who do not accept the climate pronouncements of the administration are anti-American traitors. See links under A Hearing.
****************
Inconsistency in the IPCC? Writing in Steve McIntyre’s Climate Audit, Nic Lewis explores if observational evidence presented in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) supports the models the IPCC uses. As Christy points out (above) the latest models (CMIP5) are worse at depicting actual climate variation than the earlier ones. One of the major issues is Transient Climate Response (TCR), which can be defined as the sensitivity of the climate system to an increasing of carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. In the comments section, Ross McKitrick sums up the findings well.
One of the really remarkable points Nic makes here is that, just using numbers from the IPCC report itself, and applying their own formula for transient climate response, an estimate of around 1.3C is unavoidable. Yet most of the models they employ have TCR’s of 1.6 or higher, and quite a few are even above 2, implying way too much sensitivity to CO2 emissions. Yet the IPCC goes on to say things like “There is very high confidence that models reproduce the general features of the global-scale annual mean surface temperature increase over the historical period, including the more rapid warming in the second half of the 20th century, and the cooling immediately following large volcanic eruptions.” (Ch 9 p. 3). The whole summary section of Ch 9 gives the impression that models and observations are beautifully in alignment. Something’s gotta give here.
One can wonder what the final, final AR5 will state. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
****************
Endangerment Finding: The written briefs from the petitioners challenging the EPA’s finding that greenhouse gases (GHG), primarily carbon dioxide, endanger human health and welfare have been submitted to the Supreme Court. The amicus curiae, friends in court, briefs are due on December 16. The oral arguments have been set for February 24, and no doubt it will be packed. As stated previously, the Supreme Court limited its acceptance of hearing the case in such a way that scientific arguments are excluded.
The plaintiff group of which SEPP is a member is headed by the Southeastern Legal Foundation. The main points included:
· Congress has not authorized EPA to regulate GHG emissions
· CO2 becomes well mixed, regardless where released around the world. Controlling US emissions will have little impact.
· There are no adverse health risks from direct exposure
· There is measurable differentiated local effect
· The regulations cannot prevention of significant deterioration of air quality
· By applying the rules intended for vehicles to stationary sources, the EPA took on powers that the court specifically denied government agencies in Brown & Williamson
· National Ambient Air Quality Standards cannot apply for CO2
· If applied as the law requires – regulating sources that emit 100 to 250 tons per year – it will lead to absurd consequences
· Congress shot down numerous proposals to limit CO2 emissions from stationary sources
· EPA’s action violates Constitutional separation of powers and is an unconstitutional power grab.
The Court may or may not reach a decision before it recesses for the summer in early July. This case should not be confused with the one the Supreme Court heard this week on EPA regulations on the transport of air borne materials across state lines. For the latter, see Article #2 and links under Litigation Issues.
****************
Ozone: NASA reports that the annual “hole” in the ozone layer over the Antarctic is stable, neither expanding nor shrinking. It has been more than twenty years since the Montreal Protocol was signed, specifically to restrict human-made chlorine-based chemicals thought to deplete the ozone layer (expand the hole). Two new studies show that signs of recovery are not yet present, and that temperature and winds are still driving any annual changes in ozone hole size. According to reports, NASA calculates the hole will not be fully recovered until 2070. Could it be that the science behind the claim that these chemicals were the cause was less than accurate? See links under Problems in the Orthodoxy.
****************
Surreal Science: Borrowing a phrase from Bob Carter, mathematician Christopher Essex writes in American Thinker that popular discussions on climate have come to take on the appearance of a Salvador Dali painting. A review of comments using terms such as carbon pollution, carbon credits, carbon taxes, decarbonize, and carbon-free sugar (!) can leave one with the same detachment from reality as a visit to a Dali exhibit, such as the Dali museum in Figueres, Spain. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
****************
Uncertainty: On her web site, Judith Curry has another post on the value of uncertainty, including points such as confusing science with removing uncertainty, delusional certitude, and wilful blindness. Popular false precision, when results are given in significant numbers far beyond what is justified by the assumptions, falls within these concepts. The quote of the week comes from the discussion on delusional certitude. See links under Seeking a Common Ground.
****************
CCC: Showing all the great certitude of the British Army high command during World War I, when they ordered large units of men to their deaths, the UK Committee on Climate Change (CCC) has announced that, regardless of what other countries do, the UK must stay the course in severely cutting CO2 emissions and promoting green energy. Keep a stiff upper lip and the losses be damned. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
****************
Survey Says? The questionable poll of some members of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) continues to create controversy. Only 30% of the reported respondents stated they were very worried about climate change. According to reports, the lead author of the paper is criticizing members of the AMS, including claiming that they are driven by political ideology, as if being able to forecast well what nature will bring is based on politics. See links under Lowering Standards
****************
Number of the Week: $43,422. On her blog Jo Nova lists the US fines paid by some energy companies for killing migratory and endangered birds. Exxon paid $600,000 for killing 85 birds, or $7,059 per bird. Duke Energy (wind farm) paid $1,000,000 for killing 163 birds, or $6,135 per bird. BP paid $100,000,000 for killing birds in the Gulf oil spill. As stated in the April 23, 2011 TWTW, the US Fish and Wildlife Service reported finding 2303 dead birds with visible oil (oil did not necessarily kill them) during the entire year following the spill. This works out to be $43,422 per bird. The BP shareholders have every reason to claim the US government treated them shabbily. See links under Washington’s Control of Energy.
###################################################
ARTICLES:
For the numbered articles below please see this week’s TWTW at: www.sepp.org. The articles are at the end of the pdf.
1. China Releases Blueprint for Adapting to Climate Change
By Wayne Ma, WSJ, Dec 10, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Adaptation, not only reducing CO2 emissions. Web site is in Chinese.]
2. EPA’s Thin Legal Air
The Supreme Court considers another regulatory power grab.
Editorial, WSJ, Dec 9, 2013
3. Osborne’s Low-Energy Economy
Improving productivity is the key to raising British living standards.
By Rupert Darwall, WSJ, Dec 9, 2013
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303560204579247762870103346
4. A bit of humor from the Wall Street Journal, Dec 12, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
###################################################
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
The truth about ‘We have to get rid of the medieval warm period’
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 8 , 2013
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Does the observational evidence in AR5 support its/the CMIP5 models’ TCR ranges?
By Nic Lewis, Climate Audit, Dec 9, 2013
[SEPP Comment: TCR – Transient Climate Response.
On the Futility of Long-Range Numerical Climate Prediction
By William Gray, WUWT, Dec 10, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/10/on-the-futility-of-long-range-numerical-climate-prediction/
IPCC’s Report on Climate Change: Myths & Realities
Guest essay by Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy, Formerly Chief Technical Advisor – WMO/UN, WUWT, Dec 7, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/07/ipccs-report-on-climate-change-myths-realities/
Climate Bullies, the Surrealists of Science
By Christopher Essex, American Thinker, Dec 9, 2013
http://www.americanthinker.com/2013/12/climate_bullies_the_surrealists_of_science.html
Nobel winner declares boycott of top science journals
Randy Schekman says his lab will no longer send papers to Nature, Cell and Science as they distort scientific process
By Ian Sample, Guardian, UK, Dec 9, 2013 [H/t Anne Debeil]
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2013/dec/09/nobel-winner-boycott-science-journals
Lord, Save Us From Impact Factors
By Matt Brings, His Blog, Dec 12, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=10441
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Planet Earth: Is It As Fragile As Environmentalists Say?
By Walter Williams, IBD, Dec 11, 2013 [H/t Paul Refern]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Climate ‘Refugee’ Left High and Dry
A New Zealand court has rejected the argument that one can claim asylum from the alleged ravages of climate change. For the plaintiff, it is back to teeming Kiribati, where the real problem is a booming population
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, Dec 12, 2013
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2013/12/climate-refugee-left-high-dry/
[SEPP Comment: The judge claimed a long term problem from rising ocean levels attributable to climate change.]
Green energy targets cannot be cut, government adviser says
Committee on Climate Change defies Osborne over greenhouse gas targets
By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Dec 11, 2013
Ministers must stick to carbon dioxide emissions reductions, says CCC
Committee on Climate Change says current plans will save money in long run by reducing dependence on imported gas
By Fiona Harvey, The Guardian, UK, Dec 11, 2013
Questioning the Orthodoxy
IPCC spin translated – the leaked Synopsis admits 97% of models fail
By Geoff Sherrington and Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 10, 2013
Intelligence and the hockey stick
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Dec 8, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/08/intelligence-and-the-hockey-stick/
A climate of fear, cash, and correctitude
By Paul Driessen and Dennis Mitchell, Net Right Daily, Dec 11, 2013
Effects Of Environmentalist and Climate Alarmist Crying Wolf Begin To Appear.
By Tim Ball, A Different Perspective, Dec 10, 2013
http://drtimball.com/2013/2122/
On the limits to climatology
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 11, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/11/on-the-limits-to-climatology.html
Analysis of Entire Inventory of Historical Data Clearly Points to One Conclusions: Natural Factors Are Dominant
A History of Global Temperature
By Ed Caryl, No Tricks Zone, Dec 10, 2013
Why Humans Don’t Have Much To Do With Climate Change
By Lawrence Solomon, Huffington Post, Dec 9, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/lawrence-solomon/global-cooling_b_4413833.html
A Short History of Climate Hysteria
By David Archibald, Quadrant, AU, Dec 11, 2013
http://quadrant.org.au/opinion/doomed-planet/2013/12/short-history-climate-hysteria/
As the pumped-up spectre of climatic catastrophe continues to deflate, Ruper Darwall’s new book makes a handy guide to the conceits, careerism, delusions and blatant misrepresentations that debased the good name of science and set the stage for economic ruin
Social Benefits of Carbon
Biospheric Productivity of China Deserts
By Staff Writers, SPPI & CO2 Science, Dec 11, 2013
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/biospheric_productivity_of_china_deserts.html
[SEPP Comment: Reversal of feared desertification?]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Recovery of Ozone Hole on Hold Says NASA
By Staff Writers, Reporting Climate Science, Dec 11, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
Link NASA report: NASA Reveals New Results From Inside the Ozone Hole
By Staff Writers, NASA, Dec 11, 2013
http://www.nasa.gov/content/goddard/new-results-from-inside-the-ozone-hole/#.UqoARvRDvCt
NASA says ozone hole stabilizing but won’t fully recover until 2070
By Tony Barboza, LA Times, Dec 12, 2013
How to make a global climate change deal
Editorial, Washington Post, Dec 6, 2013
Merkel Embraces Coal as Rookie Lawmaker Makes Mark on Policy
By Arne Deifs, Bloomberg, Dec 12, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
A Hearing
Hearing: A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 11, 2013
House Environment Subcommittee Testimony
By Roger Pielke, Jr, His Blog, Dec 11, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/12/house-environment-subcommittee-testimony.html
Subcommittee on Environment Hearing – A Factual Look at the Relationship Between Climate and Weather
Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, Dec 11, 2013
Seeking a Common Ground
Taylor and Ravetz on the value of uncertainty
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 12, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/12/12/taylor-and-ravetz-on-the-value-of-uncertainty/
Twenty Tips For Interpreting Scientific Claims
By William Briggs, His Blog, Dec 2, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=10234
Link to paper: Policy: Twenty tips for interpreting scientific claims
By William J. Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter and Mark A. Burgman, Nature, Nov 20, 2013
http://www.nature.com/news/policy-twenty-tips-for-interpreting-scientific-claims-1.14183
[SEPP Comment: Statistician William Briggs gives his evaluation of the 20 tips.]
Public engagement and communicating uncertainty
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Dec 8, 2013
http://judithcurry.com/2013/12/08/public-engagement-and-communicating-uncertainty/
What Is And What We Know Of It, Probabilistically Speaking
By William Briggs, His Blog, Dec 11, 2013
http://wmbriggs.com/blog/?p=10401
[SEPP Comment: A technical discussion on the difference between probability and relative frequency.]
NASA Developing Natural Hazard Warning Systems
By Staff Writers, Pasadena CA (JPL), Dec 11, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/NASA_Developing_Natural_Hazard_Warning_Systems_999.html
Lowering Standards
Global Warming Alarmist Trashes His Own Poll Of Meteorologists Showing No Climate Crisis
By James Taylor, Forbes, Dec 5, 2013 [H/t Christine French]
How do meteorologists fit into the 97% global warming consensus?
A new study examines meteorologists, the global warming consensus, political ideology, and climate expertise
By Dana Nuccitelli, Guardian, UK, Dec 2, 2013
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Geological Society does woo!
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 10, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/10/geological-society-does-woo.html
Royal Society Fellows Meet: More Reactions.
By Staff Writers, GWPF, Dec 12, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/royal-society-fellows-meet-reactions/
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Ex-Im Bank joins Treasury in cutting coal plant funding
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Dec 13, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Promoting poverty!]
Lights out please
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 11, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/11/lights-out-please.html
Questioning European Green
Sustainable Energy
By Martin Livermore, Scientific Alliance, Dec 13, 2013
http://scientific-alliance.org/scientific-alliance-newsletter/sustainable-energy
Let’s put our efforts into developing economic sources of energy generation and storage which supplant fossil fuels because they are better, not spending public money on technologies which are not yet mature enough to warrant deployment.
A sudden realization
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Dec 13, 2013
http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2013/12/13/a-sudden-realisation.html
[SEPP Comment: Even Shell’s climate change advisor begins to understand the true mission of the greens!]
UK Carbon Emission Targets ‘May Have to Be Jettisoned”
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF Dec 11, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/uk-carbon-emission-targets-may-jettisoned/
[SEPP Comments: See comments by Benny Peiser]
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Another Kick to Malthus
By Walter Russell Mead, American Interest, Dec 12, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2013/12/12/another-kick-to-malthus/
The Power to Develop
By Bjørn Lomborg, Project Syndicate, Dec 12, 2013
Green Jobs
Spain Alters Environment Law to Speed Industrial Projects
By Todd White, Bloomberg, Dec 9, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Green jobs are far fewer than promised.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Geoengineering approaches to reduce climate change unlikely to succeed
By Staff Writers, Munich, Germany (SPX), Dec 10, 2013
Link to paper: A simple explanation for the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to surface temperature and solar radiation and its implications for global climate change
By Kleidon and Renner, Earth System Dynamics, Aug 14, 2013
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/4/455/2013/esd-4-455-2013.html
[SEPP Comment: Without a clear definition of natural versus human-caused climate change such articles have little value.]
NASA Finds Reducing Salt Is Bad For Glacial Health
By Carol Rasmussen, JPL, Dec 10, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/NASA_Finds_Reducing_Salt_Is_Bad_For_Glacial_Health_999.html
Ice loss seen in Antarctica is generally attributed to the well-documented rise in temperature of the surrounding ocean, but scientists are still puzzling out the mechanisms behind the regional variations that they are observing.
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to the article, the sea ice is expanding and the rise in temperature is not well documented.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
More on Trenberth and Fasullo (2013) “An Apparent Hiatus in Global Warming?”
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Dec 11, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The last paragraph sums it all. To advance knowledge, it is perfectly acceptable to produce speculative papers in hope of fostering discussion and disagreement. It is something else to imply that assertions are substantiated as knowledge in a yet to be published paper in a journal that promotes speculation.]
What the past tells us about modern sea-level rise
Press Release, U. of Southampton, UK, Dec 12, 2013 [H/t WUWT]
http://www.southampton.ac.uk/mediacentre/news/2013/dec/13_223.shtml
[SEPP Comment: In spite of what the press release states, the prediction is not based on historic evidence: “Geological data showed that sea level would likely rise by nine metres or more as the climate system adjusts to today’s greenhouse effect.” The issue is that we do not know what the greenhouse effect is! What we have from the models is speculation.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Climate scientists need protection to think without fear
By Tom Harris and Terry Dunleavy, Sun Star, PI, Dec 11, 2013
Measurement Issues
Antarctica: Record Cold and Growing Ice Chills Global Warming Theories
By Ben Gaul, Los Vegas Guardian Express, Dec 12, 2013
http://guardianlv.com/2013/12/antarctica-record-cold-and-growing-ice-chills-global-warming-theories/
Coldest ever temperature recorded on Earth found in Antarctica
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 9, 2013
AMSU Surface Air Temperature Retrievals of the Coldest Place on Earth
Slight warming over Dome A for the last 15 years. (updated)
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Dec 13, 2013
Changing Weather
A Blast from the Past
By Roger Pielke, Jr. His Blog Dec 10, 2013
http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2013/12/a-blast-from-past.html
30 Years Of ‘Killer Winter Storms’? Alarmists Wrong Again
Editorial, IBD, Dec 9, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Hurricane Predictions
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Dec 13, 2013
http://dddusmma.wordpress.com/2013/12/13/hurricane-predictions/
Snow falling. In Australia. In summer. That is all
By Anthony Sharwood, News.com AU, Dec 5, 2013 [H/t Catherine French]
[SEPP Comment: Nothing like a nice summer snow, except if there is a big biking event scheduled.]
Changing Seas
Top Swedish Climate Scientist Also Confirms No Sea Level Acceleration…Desperate Pachauri Insisting No Acceleration “Is An Acceleration”!
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 12, 2013
New Jersey Shore Likely Faces Unprecedented Flooding by Mid-Century
By Staff Writers, New Brunswick NJ (SPX), Dec 11, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The issue is separating the factual from the speculation: “The unprecedented 20th-century sea-level rise had a significant human impact.” Earlier in the Holocene sea level rise was faster and the significant human impact for New Jersey may be from pumping out groundwater.]
Veteran Meteorologist: “Old And New Data Show Sea Level Rise Deceleration”…Alarmist Projections “Contradicted”
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Dec 12, 2013
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Fire And Ice — Volcanoes, Not CO2, Melt West Antarctic
Editorial, IBD, Dec 10, 2013
Ice melting Arctic cyclones more common than previously thought
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 12, 2013
Changing Earth
East Antarctica is sliding sideways
By Staff Writers, San Francisco CA (SPX), Dec 12, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/East_Antarctica_is_sliding_sideways_999.html
Deep-sea study reveals cause of 2011 tsunami
By Staff Writers, Montreal, Canada (SPX), Dec 11, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Deep_sea_study_reveals_cause_of_2011_tsunami_999.html
New Japan volcanic islet here to stay, for now: official
By Staff Writers, Tokyo (AFP), Dec 10, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/New_Japan_volcanic_islet_here_to_stay_for_now_official_999.html
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
China’s massive water diversion project starts delivering water
By Staff Writers, Beijing (UPI), Dec 10, 2013
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by NIPCC
For a full list of articles see www.NIPCCreport.org
Arctic Clouds and Sea Ice in CMIP5 Climate Models
Reference: Karlsson, J. and Svensson, G. 2013. Consequences of poor representation of Arctic sea-ice albedo and cloud-radiation interactions in the CMIP5 model ensemble. Geophysical Research Letters 40: 4374-4379.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/dec/10dec2013a1.html
Creating Global Climate Models for Agricultural Impact Research
Reference: Ramirez-Villegas, J., Challinor, A.J., Thornton, P.K. and Jarvis, A. 2013. Implications of regional improvement in global climate models for agricultural impact research. Environmental Research Letters 8: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024018.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/dec/10dec2013a2.html
Solar and Planetary Influences on Global Climate Change
Reference: Scafetta, N. 2013. Solar and planetary oscillation control on climate change: Hind-cast, forecast and a comparison with the CMIP5 GCMs. Energy & Environment 24: 455-496.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/dec/10dec2013a3.html
Earth’s Changing Biosphere
Reference: Fung, I. 2013. A hyperventilating biosphere. Science 341: 1075-1076.
http://nipccreport.org/articles/2013/dec/11dec2013a3.html
The Political Games Continue
Pathetic press release from House Democrats disappears the testimony of Christy and Pielke
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 12, 2013
Litigation Issues
Northeast states push EPA on Midwestern, Southern emissions
By Zac Colman, Washington Examiner, Dec 9, 2013
Supreme Court reviews pollution limits
By Laura Barron-Lopez, The Hill, Dec 10, 2013
http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/192643-supreme-court-hears-interstate-pollution-arguments
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Bipartisan push imperils ethanol mandate
By Ben Goad The Hill, Dec 12, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/regwatch/energy-environment/192978-bipartisan-push-imperils-ethanol-mandate
[SEPP Comment: Are members of Congress learning?]
Hallelujah: Aversion to the Renewable Fuel Standard seems to be catching on in Congress
By Erika Johnsen, Hot Air, Dec 12, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Report: US solar installations skyrocket
By Peter Sullivan, The Hill, Dec 10, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/192611-report-us-solar-installations-skyrocket
[SEPP Comment: If they are so successful, why do they need subsidies and mandates?]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Absurdity Infinitum
By Donn Dears, Power for USA, Dec 10, 2013
Drowning In A Costly, Intrusive Federal Regulatory Flood
Editorial, IBD, Dec 12, 2013
http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/121213-682769-new-wall-of-regulation-is-coming-hard.htm
Analysis Group’s Tierney says concerns over EPA air regulations are misplaced
Transcript by Staff Writer, EETV, Dec 10, 2013
http://www.eenews.net/tv/videos/1756/transcript
[SEPP Comment: Supporting the EPA.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
Daunting Days Ahead as Mexico Readies Oil Opening
By Katherine Corcoran and E. Eduardo Castillo, AP, Dec 13, 2013
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/L/LT_MEXICO_ENERGY_REFORM?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
IEA Boosts 2014 Global Oil Demand Forecast on U.S. Recovery
By Grant Smith, Bloomberg, Dec 11, 2013
Shale Boom Shakes U.K.’s $32 Billion Chemicals Industry: Energy
By Nidaa Bakhsh, Bloomberg, Dec 13, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
[SEPP Comment: Thanks to private initiative, the US profits and the British government bumbles.]
Why China’s renewables industry is headed for collapse
By Patricia Adams and Brady Yauch, Financial Post, Dec 9, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
http://opinion.financialpost.com/2013/12/09/why-chinas-renewables-industry-is-headed-for-collapse/
Energy Issues — US
Green Power Gridlock: Why Renewable Energy Is No Alternative
By Larry Bell, Forbes, Dec 10, 2013
DOE: Widespread Grid Storage Deployment Faces Crucial Challenges
By Sonal Patel, Power, Dec 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Except pumped hydro, there is no such storage on a commercial scale.]
Fail: US Has Wasted $154 Billion on ‘Renewable Energy’
By Julian Morris & Victor Nava, Breitbart, Dec 5, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: SEPP was unable to locate the basis for the $154 billion figure.]
Report: Coal Power Plant Retirements Could Push Up Future Wholesale Power Prices
By Sonal Patel, Power, Dec 12, 2013
Link to report: Coal Plant Retirements: Feedback Effects on Wholesale Electricity Prices
By Onur Aydin, Frank Graves, and Metin Celebi, The Brattle Group, Nov 2013
Washington’s Control of Energy
OK to kill endangered birds? Yes if you are a windfarm. Greens seem to be fine with that.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Dec 13, 2013
TransCanada now pumping oil into part of Keystone XL
By Rebecca Shabad, The Hill, Dec 10, 2013
http://thehill.com/blogs/e2-wire/e2-wire/192619-transcanada-now-pumping-oil-into-part-of-keystone-xl
[SEPP Comment: But not across the international boundary].
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
We Are Drilling, Baby! U.S. Passing Saudi Arabia in Oil Production
By David Kreutzer, The Foundry, Dec 10, 2013
http://blog.heritage.org/2013/12/10/we-are-drilling-baby-u-s-passing-saudi-arabia-in-oil-production/
New shale gas drilling areas to be revealed as communities promised £100,000 benefits for fracking
Large swathes of UK to be opened up for shale drilling, with communities where fracking takes place to receive £100,000, even if no gas is produced
By Emily Gosden, Telegraph, UK, Dec 10, 2013 [H/t GWPF]
UK Climate Change Committee Gives Green Light for Fracking
By Ben Webster, The Times, Via GWPF, Dec 11, 2013
http://www.thegwpf.org/uk-climate-change-committee-green-light-fracking/
Return of King Coal?
Global coal demand growth calls for intensified search for clean coal solution
By Martin Creamer, Mining Weekly, Dec 13, 2013
[SEPP Comment: As long as life-giving carbon dioxide is called a pollutant, defining clean coal is an important issue.]
Coal in the Global Energy Landscape
By Nicolas Loris, Heritage Foundation, Dec 11, 2013
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2013/12/coal-in-the-global-energy-landscape
Europe’s Most Efficient Coal Plant Comes Online
By Aaron Larson, Power, Dec 11, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Not necessarily the least costly.]
Kenya to Offer 31 Coal Blocks After Pact With China’s Fenxi
By David Malingha Doya, Bloomberg, Dec 9, 2013
Nuclear Energy and Fears
US takes last shipment of Russian uranium
By Staff Writers, Washington (AFP), Dec 10, 2013
http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/US_takes_last_shipment_of_Russian_uranium_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Costly, but served a purpose.]
Japan to spend $970 mn on nuclear soil store: report
By Staff Writers, Tokyo (AFP), Dec 11, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Japan_to_spend_970_mn_on_nuclear_soil_store_report_999.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
A More Realistic Cost of Wind Energy
By Willem Post, Energy Collective, Nov 29, 2013 [H/t AWED]
http://theenergycollective.com/willem-post/310631/more-realistic-cost-wind-energy
[SEPP Comment: A long post analyzing the high hidden costs of wind power.]
Negative Pricing Distortions of Windpower
By Lisa Linowes, Master Resource, Dec 12, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/12/linowes-negative-wind-pricing/#more-28910
Privileged Tax Treatment of Industrial Wind Generation: Time to End
By Kevon Martis, Master Resource, Dec 11, 2013
http://www.masterresource.org/2013/12/privileged-tax-wind-generation/#more-28864
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Federal Regulations Discourage Renewable Energy
By Staff Writer, National Center for Policy Analysis, Dec 13, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Hydro – the forgotten form of electricity generation.]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Diesel, Fuel Cells Get Spotlight as Plug-Ins Lose Favor
By Angela Greiling Keane, Bloomberg, Nov 11, 2013 [H/t NCPA]
Carbon Schemes
$8 Billion DOE Solicitation for Advanced Fossil Energy Projects Announced
By Gail Reitenbach, Power Line, Dec 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Squandering resources for the unnecessary. Increased efficiency is desirable, costly CCS is not.]
Health, Energy, and Climate
Is the NYTimes reverting to the bad old days of DDT denial?
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Dec 13, 2013
http://acsh.org/2013/12/nytimes-reverting-bad-old-days-ddt-denial/
Environmental Industry
WWF and cohorts barred from Moscow polar bear forum
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Dec 8, 2013
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/12/08/wwf-and-cohorts-barred-from-moscow-polar-bear-forum/
[SEPP Comment: Even though WWF is a major funder of such events.]
Global warming skeptic buries Sierra Club director under avalanche of facts [VIDEO]
By Brendan Bordelon, Daily Caller, Dec 11, 2013 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Other Scientific News
New long-lived greenhouse gas discovered by University of Toronto chemistry team
By Staff Writers, Toronto, Canada (SPX), Dec 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: The compound, perfluorotributylamine, is a liquid used in the electrical equipment industry and is approved by FDA as a blood substitute.]
Scientist: Near-miss solar storm should be a wake-up call
By Staff Writers, Boulder, Colo. (UPI), Dec 10, 2013
http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Scientist_Near-miss_solar_storm_should_be_a_wake-up_call_999.html
Study finds rivers and streams release more greenhouse gas than all lakes
By Staff Writers, Waterloo, Canada (SPX), Dec 12, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Should they all have extensive dams?]
Other News that May Be of Interest
More logging, deforestation may better serve climate in some areas
By Staff Writers, Hanover, NH (SPX), Dec 10, 2013
[SEPP Comment: Don’t tell the Greens!]
NASA Snow Mapper Reaps Big Benefits for California
By Staff Writers, Pasadena CA (JPL), Dec 12, 2013
http://www.terradaily.com/reports/NASA_Snow_Mapper_Reaps_Big_Benefits_for_California_999.html
[SEPP Comment: Better knowledge of the water content in the snow permits better management of water discharges from the dams.]
################################################
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
Santa Warns In Greenpeace Video Christmas Will Be Canceled Due To Global Warming
By Staff Writers, CBS, Dec 10, 2013 [H/t David Kreutzer]
Zombie asks a question
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Dec 10, 2013
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/12/10/zombie-asks-a-question/
[SEPP Comment: Right there with: do wind farms slow down the rotation of the earth?]
###################################################
The Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) is a 501-c-3 organization, incorporated in Virginia. Its FID# is 54-1645372 and donations are tax deductible. SEPP pays no salaries, and does not solicit or receive support from corporations or government agencies. It depends upon contributions from private donors.
In 2014, we will continue to hear false claims of global warming/climate change, and face a large number of proposed EPA regulationsthat will do little for the environment but will certainly retard or even stop economic growth.
Our task for 2014 is to challenge the false claims and to show that most of these regulations are destructive, unscientific, and unnecessary. For a more complete statement of goals please see www.SEPP.org.
Also, we will address regulations from other Federal agencies that desire to control or stop the clean use of coal as a fuel, the expansion of oil and natural gas production in the US, and invoke false issues such as the “social cost of carbon”, to support needless environmental regulations restricting economic growth and general prosperity.
To donate to SEPP by check please make it payable to SEPP and send it to the address below: or
To donate to SEPP by credit card or pay pal: Please go to www.SEPP.org, hit the donate button on the bottom of the page, then hit the donate button on the next page and follow the instructions.
SEASON’S GREETINGS
S. Fred Singer, PhD
Chairman, Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
1600 S. Eads St., Suite 712-S
Arlington, VA 22202-2907
singer@SEPP.org
1-703-920-2744
###################################################
PLEASE NOTE: The SEPP web site has been hit by sophisticated hackers using facilities in Russia and China. Those going to the SEPP web site seeking information have been redirected to web sites of Chinese products.
Our web site provider is a national, commercial firm with extensive experience. Working closely together, the provider and SEPP undertook a number of tests to determine the weaknesses in the system, including shutting down the web site for over 24 hours. We may have the problems resolved. We apologize for any difficulties you may have incurred.
Those making donations to SEPP through the web site should experience no difficulty. If you experience any difficulties in obtaining information, please e-mail Ken@SEPP.org.
The one good point coming from this attack is the realization that the SEPP web site ranks highly among those organizations that rate web sites – further encouraging SEPP to maintain and improve it.
###################################################
Reblogged this on Head Space and commented:
Staying on top of it…or at least trying to.
It may have been mentioned already, but the Orange County Register (major Southern California paper) had this up for the weekend
http://www.ocregister.com/articles/warming-593355-global-temperature.html
Mark Landsbaum: Climate alarmists’ search for proof going cold
which included this fun little rundown
“A funny thing happened on the way to the 2010s and 2020s. It didn’t get so hot. In fact, depending on which data set you use, it probably has cooled down for 17 years.
A recent explanation for this pause (if not reversal), was offered in a scientific paper blaming the El Niño Pacific Ocean warming in 1997-98 for triggering the hiatus.
As the theory goes, El Niño caused a large heat transfer from deep in the ocean to the surface, which cooled the waters below. Since then, according to the theory, heat has been reabsorbed from the upper ocean, in turn cooling the atmosphere. Maybe. Maybe not.
There’s no shortage of inventive excuses for why things aren’t so hot, including, incredibly, China’s increased use of coal, even though “dirty” fossil fuel is supposed to increase, not decrease temperatures.
Implicit in this “where-did-the-heat-go” shell game is an inconvenient reality.
Climatologist Roger Pielke Sr., University of Colorado, Boulder, professor emeritus of atmospheric Science, says, if correct, the ocean paper means, “the end of surface temperature trends as the icon of global warming.”
If so, that’s a game changer for the climate wars.
If surface temperatures lose their credibility (and we side with those who long have said that’s the case), where will alarmists point to prove their point?”
“CCC: Showing all the great certitude of the British Army high command during World War I, when they ordered large units of men to their deaths,…..”
========
Wrong tack, way wrong tack.
Amusing that in the WSJ article China is quoted as now saying “Mitigation isn’t enough”. Well, duh! Since it’s worthless, that follows.
They claim $32bn in CC damage since 1990, by attributing a dog’s breakfast of natural disasters to it. The only CC damage is opportunity costs, like deaths, resulting from the mis-allocation of resources to mitigation.
u.k.(us) said at 8.51pm
“CCC: Showing all the great certitude of the British Army high command during World War I, when they ordered large units of men to their deaths,…..”
========
Wrong tack, way wrong tack.
========
Yep. Received wisdom and the increasingly mainstream historical view of the Great War grow further out of step. The five Armies of the B.E.F. defeated the German Army nose to nose, toe to toe in 1918. This is the role that fell to the Red Army in 1941. It cost the Soviets more than the first day of the Somme every day for the next four years.
The ‘Lions led by Donkeys’ jibe (itself a fabrication) is as much a ‘popular delusion’ as the concepts of ‘scientific consensus’, ‘the oceans ate my global warming’ and ‘1940 was our Finest Hour.’
OF
I think they’re making it far too complex an issue with so much focus on that one molecule. Whatever happened to the rest of climate science? The sun, highs, lows, convection currents, etc.? CO2 doesn’t just sit there – it’s homogenized and moving with the rest of the atmosphere, up or down and/or horizontally.
Titley invoked the incantation, “absence of evidence is not evidence of absence” – for what purpose I am not sure.
=============
Titley’s meaning was clear: “just because we have no evidence of Global Warming, this doesn’t mean it isn’t happening”.
Deaths as % of population
WWI
Australia – 1.38
Canada – 0.92
New Zealand – 1.64
UK – 2.19
WWII
Australia – 0.57
Canada – 0.4
New Zealand – 0.73
UK – 0.94
WUWT & SEPP.
See this?
You’re broadcasting tracking info and subjecting your readers to tracking when you don’t remove the cookie info from the link. Cut off everything after the question mark [?] that follows .html. Like this: much mo’ bettah.
The Precautionary Principle, which is actually enshrined in the statutory law of the EU. For a hilarious but brutal look at this dark illusion, watch Part 3 of The Power of Nightmares: The Rise of the Politics of Fear by the fabulous award-winning documentary BBC filmmaker Adam Curtis. This is the best copy of it. No wonder no US public TV station will touch it. It’s been effectively banned here except for a few private showings.
Investors have a fear of the unknown. And that uncertainty often creates a pullback in stocks, which has now happened for two weeks in a row.
This coming week may indeed answer those burning questions.
1) Will the QE taper start in December?
2) Will Congress actually pass a debt deal before time runs out?
http://www.npr.org/2013/12/08/249079453/economists-toast-20-years-of-nafta-critics-sit-out-the-party
http://www.lrb.co.uk/v35/n24/seymour-m-hersh/whose-sarin
http://consortiumnews.com/2013/12/12/obamas-syria-strategy-at-a-crossroads/
http://consortiumnews.com/2013/12/13/fresh-doubts-about-syrias-sarin-guilt/
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-28/80-us-adults-are-near-poverty-rely-welfare-or-are-unemployed
http://politicalblindspot.com/us-poor/
[Please do NOT cut and paste entire articles. — mod.]
Find out what really caused the warming and why it stopped at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com/
I suggest that you rename your publication as the “NIPOCC report.” That new name contains two fewer syllables; it’s more memorable; and it sounds more dismissive. (The “NI” sounds like a negative (and like “knee”), and “IPOCC” sounds sillier than “the IPCC.”)
(The “O” stands of “On.”)
Chicken Little says “IPOCC, POCC, POCC . . . .”
Dan P.,
Like.
http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com/
For the time-challenged: the time-integral of SSN explains all but <10% of temperature variations for the last 360 years. CO2 is not even part of that small residual.
PS: An even better acronym for the NIPCC report would be the NOPOCC report:
(NOPOCC = NOngovernmental Panel On Climate Change)