Solar activity on the upswing, big sunspot rotating into view is producing x-class solar flares. Large CME expected soon, may hit earth.

From Spaceweather.com:

New sunspot 1302 has already produced two X-flares(X1.4 on Sept. 22nd and X1.9 on Sept. 24th), can another be far behind? NOAA forecasters put the 24-hour probability at 20%. The sheer size of the active region suggests the odds might be even higher than that:

Each of the dark cores in this snapshot from the Solar Dynamics Observatory is larger than Earth, and the entire active region stretches more than 100,000 km from end to end. The sunspot’s magnetic field is crackling with sub-X-class flares that could grow into a larger eruption as the sunspot continues to turn toward Earth.

=================================================

Here’s some interesting images, graphs, and movies of the flare. Of particular interest is the forecast animation which suggests Earth might get glanced by a large Coronal Mass Ejection on September 26th.

Saturday morning, Sept. 24th, behemoth sunspot 1302 unleashed another strong flare–an X1.9-category blast at 0940 UT. NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the extreme ultraviolet flash:

This animated forecast track suggests Earth might get hit by a good sized CME on September 26th(click image if it does not animate). Note the center panel of the animation:

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20110924_152600_anim.tim-den.gif

Analysts at the Goddard Space Weather Lab say the CME could deliver a glancing blow to Earth’s magnetic field on Sept. 26 at 14:10 UT (+/- 7 hours). Fortunately the bulk of this would be directed away from Earth, but the massive sunspot group can still produce more flares and CME’s as it rotates. It will be an interesting week of spaceweather

From the WUWT Solar page:

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/assets/img/latest/latest_512_4500.jpg

Solar Dynamics Observatory – other image sizes: 4096 2048 1024 – Movie: 48 hr MPEG
SDO HMI Continuum: Greyscale images – 4096 2048 1024 – Movie: 48 hr MPEG (color)

3-day GOES X-ray Plot

About these ads
This entry was posted in solar flare and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

71 Responses to Solar activity on the upswing, big sunspot rotating into view is producing x-class solar flares. Large CME expected soon, may hit earth.

  1. HankHenry says:

    After reading this I feel like I should be alarmed…. Should I? Or does this just mean that ham radio operators will be hearing a few more crackles? This isn’t something that’s going to burn up telegraph wires, is it? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1859_solar_superstorm

  2. BargHumer says:

    So, back to life, and when the Earth continues to cool where will the warmists get their excuse from now?

  3. ggm says:

    Looks like this is already fading…. another “solar scare”…..

  4. Joe Bastardi says:

    perhaps this is the real deal, but I have been watching this site the last 4 years trying to pump this sunspot cycle because of the forecast made in 2007 that by 2010-2011 this would be a hyper cycle. Yet I first became aware of sunspot/climate relationships in the early 90s when eastern bloc and Danish origin research said this cycle would go into the tank, and it formed the basis for a forecast of a mini ice age by 2030. While I am not buying the mini ice age idea, I am impressed that ideas I read almost 20 years ago whipped ideas from 5 years ago, though with each eruption, there seems to be a tendency on this site to say, here it comes. In any case whatever happens, in a few years we will be saying there it goes, and right now the forecast from 1992 when I read this is whipping the NASA idea from 06.

  5. Joe Bastardi says:

    Excuse me, that is the NASA idea from 07. want to make sure I have my dates down since someone will use my misprint as a reason to make sure the main message is trashed

  6. Joe Bastardi says:

    Excuse me, that is the NASA idea from 07. want to make sure I have my dates down since someone will use my misprint as a reason to make sure the main message is trashed..by the way I do like their site and watch it all the time. Its fascinating

  7. Richard111 says:

    Nothing in the southern regions?

  8. john says:

    But a wee bit OT but very important.

    George Mitchell: Climate change skepticism will ‘not last’

    http://bangordailynews.com/2011/09/23/news/portland/george-mitchell-climate-change-skepticism-will-%E2%80%98not-last%E2%80%99/?ref=region

    George is/was affilated with DLA Piper who has a very significant interest in Carbon markets(especially their Australian affiliate) and renewable energy.

    http://www.dlapiper.com/george_mitchell/

    http://www.dlapiper.com/preparing-for-the-doe-renewable-energy-rapid-deployment-loan-guarantees/

    Note: the loan guarantees are to expire on sept.30, 2011

  9. petermue says:

    Several CME’s were observed associated to the flares mentioned above.
    The M7.1 event yesterday was accompanied by a partial halo CME observed
    in SOHO/LASCO starting from 12h48. It speed was estimated to be around
    1050 km/s based on the STEREO coronograph data. Other CME’s observed by
    STEREO A and B and SOHO/LASCO can be associated with the M3.0, M5.8 and
    M1.0 flares yesterday as well as with the M4.4, C7.9 (peak time, 03h31,
    Cat 82, NOAA 13020), M7.4 and M3.1 flares today. PROBA2/SWAP and SDO/AIA
    data show a clear EUV wave associated with the M7 flare today. As none
    of the source regions of these CME’s are in the center of the solar
    disk, we only expect possible glancing blows fram these events.

    The GOES proton flux level remains elevated (>10MeV) and is further
    increased by the current solar activity. A shock is observed in the
    solar wind parameters measured by ACE around 11 UT this morning,
    possibly related to the CME associated with the X flare on September 22.
    The total magnetic filed strength jumped to 10 nT, while the solar wind
    speed increased to 380 km/s. Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet.
    We expect them to increase to unsettled to active starting late this
    evening as a result of al the CME’s in the past hours.

    # Solar Influences Data analysis Center – RWC Belgium
    # For more information, see http://sidc.be/products/meu

    Not enough by far to be worried about.

  10. Ray says:

    It’s a respectable sunspot but it should not be defined as behemoth. How are they going to describe a really big one? Humongous? Monstrous? King-size?

    Maybe they should give them sizes like cloths… S, M, L, XL, 2XL, 3XL, 4XL.

  11. Douglas DC says:

    The Carrington Event of Sept. 1,1859- was during a relatively shallow cycle as I recall….

  12. Spector says:

    Yes, another possible ‘solar scare,’ either our power utilities are prepared or they are not, and there is not much we can do about that now. The Earth is a relatively small target for a worst-case event as these things go off like a cannon-shot from a relatively small spot on the Sun, not as a uniform blast from the whole solar surface.

    From my own smoothed sunspot data, it appears that the time interval between the starts of cycles 9 and 23 was 152.930 years and the interval between cycles 10 and 24 was 152.851 years. The difference between those two intervals is only about 29 days. The infamous ‘Carrington’ event occurred during cycle 10 on September 1, 1859 (1859.668). Thus we might expect a similar major flair sometime around 2012.519 (June of next year), but the chances are good that the Sun would not be pointed at the Earth this time.

  13. Curiousgeorge says:

    @ Ray says:
    September 25, 2011 at 9:05 am

    It’s a respectable sunspot but it should not be defined as behemoth. How are they going to describe a really big one? Humongous? Monstrous? King-size?

    Maybe they should give them sizes like cloths… S, M, L, XL, 2XL, 3XL, 4XL.

    Perhaps microscopically insignificant. Compared to what, I would ask. It’s all relative.

  14. rbateman says:

    Richard111 says:
    September 25, 2011 at 8:54 am
    Nothing in the southern regions?

    You got it. In fact, I would say that the northern region is a fraction of where it should be in a normal cycle.

  15. littlepeaks says:

    Yes, as petermue said, it appears there was a shock wave this morning from a CME. However, the Bz component of the Earth’s magnetic field stayed mostly positive. It’s when it turns negative, that we have major solar storms. I remember when we first moved out here (in northeast Colo. Springs) in 2001, we had no street lights, and the sky was very dark for good viewing. One night when my wife and I were returning from the store, she asked me what was wrong with the sky. I looked up, and it was a cherry red color, especially to the northeast. It was aurora!!! The Bz component given on Space Weather Now was pegged against the negative 60 stop on the dial (see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/ ).

  16. rbateman says:

    I like comparing apples to apples, and since the story line is about a “Behemoth” sunspot, let’s see how big that really is:
    http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/SDO_latestLg.jpg -
    Yesterday, SDO visible overlain on Ext. UV compoite.
    Uncorrected Whole Spot of 1900
    http://www.robertb.darkhorizons.org/20031028_CEITspot.jpg
    SC23 Solar Maximum 2nd Peak- 2003/10/28 01:36UT
    SOHO EIT 171,195,284 with MDI Continuum Luminance overlay.
    Uncorrected umbra – 1392, whole spot – 11725

    Seems to me that the spot area, though quite respectable, is a far cry from the Sun at the previous Solar Max (2nd peak). And as far as individual spots go, not even close to the really big spots seen in past decades.
    The flare & CME thing, however, is another subject altogether.
    As far as the overall Solar Activity level goes, the article gets carried away.
    The problem arises because no relative comparisons are drawn.
    Tsk, tsk.

  17. Alchemy says:

    Wasn’t it a month ago that the terms “new Dalton/Maunder minimum” and “quiet sun” were in play?

    Wakee, bloody wakee, Polly.

    I would suggest that not only is there much yet to be learned about sunspots and terrestrial climate change (or not), but also we don’t seem to have a predictive grasp on sunspot cyclicity, other than in the broad strokes of 11 year cycles.

  18. Perhaps some of these will wind up being sufficient for more checks of just how much solar magnetism levels and cosmic ray incidence affects cloud cover levels….

  19. Don says:

    Was looking for this…always gives me a laugh.

    http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml

  20. M.A.Vukcevic says:

    I expect that the September’s non-smoothed SIDC SSN to be around 70. If so, the sun is doing exactly as predicted several years ago;
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htm
    The solar system’s clockwork is doing fine.

  21. HenryP says:

    Has anyone here actually figured out yet what did cause the natural warming of the past 5 decades,
    higher intensity sunshine or less clouds?
    http://www.letterdash.com/HenryP/more-carbon-dioxide-is-ok-ok

  22. Don says:

    At least they have not washed it from them web. I will give them credit for that.

  23. Spector says:

    RE: Ray: (September 25, 2011 at 9:05 am)
    “It’s a respectable sunspot but it should not be defined as behemoth. How are they going to describe a really big one? Humongous? Monstrous? King-size?”

    There does appear to be a ‘Zurich’ method of sunspot *group* classification, on a scale of A through J, but this might not be suitable for public releases.

    The Zurich Classification System of Sunspot Groups
    Contributed by Tom Fleming (FLET)
    http://www.aavso.org/zurich-classification-system-sunspot-groups

  24. Ric Werme says:

    Alchemy says:
    September 25, 2011 at 10:53 am

    Wasn’t it a month ago that the terms “new Dalton/Maunder minimum” and “quiet sun” were in play?

    Yes, and they still should be. While we’re still a ways from Solar Max, the unsmoothed variation in solar activity bounces around a lot. http://spaceweather.com/ says the sunspot number is 88 (it counts region and spots) which is about the predicted maximum, above the predicted now (about 65). Note – the predictions are for smoothed data, in the last cycle the smoothed max was 120, the unsmoothed max was 170. A couple weeks ago we had a spike around 170.

    Predictions for this cycle finally seem to have settled on something that is meeting reality. It’s what comes after the Max in 2013 that will be interesting.

  25. Jim Cripwell says:

    Perhaps Leif can tell us whether L&P get any readings from 1302. The CMEs could also cause Forbush decreases; maybe as much as 30% of the GCR flux. Could be interesting.

  26. JinOH says:

    As a ham radio operator, all I can say is IT’S ABOUT TIME! :) 28 Mhz (10M) was wide open for the first time in 5 or 6 years & I’m loving it! Talked to over 100 Europeans in a couple of hours – YAY!!!

  27. rbateman says:

    M.A.Vukcevic says:
    September 25, 2011 at 11:43 am

    70 spot count of what?
    Tell you what. Since the number of something is held in higher esteem than the size or worth of the item, how about you send me the US dollars in your wallet, and I’ll send you twice as many Pesos of the same denomination.
    We’ll just call it the Solar Exchange Rate.
    I guarantee you won’t buy it any more than I don’t buy the way the number of spots is bandied about irregardless of how weak they are.

  28. Don says:

    rbateman,

    WT fudge is your point?

  29. Fred Souder says:

    Joe Bastardi says:
    Joe,
    Are you sure it was this site? There have been predictions all over the place on this site for the last four years, but I think the majority of the solar physicists that occasionally post here thought it would be a hypo cycle, not a hyper cycle. This site is certainly not a sounding board for NASA’s predictions, if that is what you were talking about.

  30. Eric Anderson says:

    “big sunspot rotating into view . . .”

    Excellent. Time to break out the telescope and the solar filter this week.

  31. okie333 says:

    Joe was referring to spaceweather.com , not Watts Up With That.

  32. M.A.Vukcevic says:

    rbateman says:
    September 25, 2011 at 12:45 pm
    ……………..
    I am not competent to judge or even less to challenge the official numbers published either by NOAA or SIDC. I hear daily of scientists challenging various climate data, but I have not come across similar discontent, either among the solar scientists or actual professional observers, regarding the current sunspot count.
    I have no quarrel with anyone’s opinion; I am just content to point out that numbers I calculated nearly 8 years ago are materialising. At the time Dr. Hathaway was predicting very strong SC24, and he personally some 5 years ago rejected my projections as nonsense. He may still come up trumps but I doubt it.

  33. rbateman says:

    Don says:
    September 25, 2011 at 1:00 pm

    It should have been obvious, but nevertheless, once more:
    You have 10 coins in your pocket. What is the total value?
    a.) 10 cents
    b.) 50 cents
    c.) 10 pesos
    d.) It depends on the face value (or measure) or each coins worth, and how it exchanges/compares with other coinage.

    So, to say the SSN is 70 is comparable to a prediction, it is assumed that the relative sizes of the counted (not measured) spots are of a normal distribution.
    So, if SC24 spots are significantly less than a normal distribution (in measured area) then to say the prediction is met is omitting relative factors.
    It may be news to you that the effect of L&P is telling on the distribution of spot sizes (measured areas) in this Solar Cycle 24.
    Is that clear enough for you?

  34. Arthur Milsom says:

    Ray says at 9.45am: “It’s a respectable spot but it should not defined as a Behemoth…….” The area of this group today is about 1700 millionths of the sun’s visible hemisphere, corrected for foreshortening. This puts it just into the Greenwich catagory of a ‘giant sunspot’ – greater than 1500 millionths. The largest spot group on record in April 1947 was some 6000 millionths – i.e. nearly four times the size of todays group – that really was a Behemoth!

  35. Don says:

    rbateman,

    I completely ignored your second explaination because like the first it had no relevance to the point MA Vukecvic made and to which you referenced at the begining of your nonsense.

    Is that clear enough for you???

  36. Bill H says:

    Interesting… size does matter..

    The average sun spot will deliver an average level of energy..

    The question then becomes did this sun spot give us the average output or did its size increase that output and by how much.. and how much of that energy is actually absorbed by the earth? a short term shot to be sure but how will it affect the earths systems?

    Many of the historical events that happened during a low solar output have signaled a shut down and rapid cooling of the sun.. I wonder if this is one of those events… looking at circulation patterns on the sun they are already slowing again. We are at or near solar maximum so this does not surprise me..

    interesting times we live in…

  37. Bill H says:

    Alchemy says:
    September 25, 2011 at 10:53 am

    Wasn’t it a month ago that the terms “new Dalton/Maunder minimum” and “quiet sun” were in play?

    Wakee, bloody wakee, Polly.

    I would suggest that not only is there much yet to be learned about sunspots and terrestrial climate change (or not), but also we don’t seem to have a predictive grasp on sunspot cyclicity, other than in the broad strokes of 11 year cycles.
    ____________________________________________________

    Not so fast… It is not uncommon for a significant event and uptick to precede a fast cool down…

    This is one I will let play out for a bit before making any predictions.. The overall makeup of this spot indicates a roll over of a large area of gas. This could grow or it could go cold quickly… we simply do not have enough information right now… give it a day or so…

  38. RoHa says:

    Sunspots, X-flares, ” Earth might get hit by a good sized CME on September 26th”

    That’s today!

    We’re doomed.

  39. RoHa says:

    @ Henry P
    “Has anyone here actually figured out yet what did cause the natural warming of the past 5 decades”

    Mostly the mass of hot-air emanating from climate scientists.

  40. Don says:
    September 25, 2011 at 4:41 pm
    rbateman,

    I completely ignored your second explaination because like the first it had no relevance to the point MA Vukecvic made and to which you referenced at the begining of your nonsense.
    Is that clear enough for you???

    ===============================

    Nonsense? Who the hell are YOU…to ignore what?

    I won’t end this post with the “is that clear enough for you” (which is weak by the way)…repeated in a red herring way the second (secondhander) time, because you don’t know what you are talking about in the first place and you are tangling with titans.

    Keep squeaking. It’s entertaining.

    Chris
    Norfolk, VA, USA

  41. rbateman says:

    savethesharks says:
    September 25, 2011 at 7:33 pm

    Never a dull moment in a Solar Cycle thread.

  42. rbateman says:

    Bill H says:
    September 25, 2011 at 4:45 pm

    At or quite near Solar Max, yes. Maybe a year left, but this is no normal cycle, we shouldn’t really expect normal progression. Remember that map of the currents below the surface that showed that SC25 hasn’t even seeded yet? Wonder if there’s an update.

  43. Ed Mertin says:

    Don may be sensitive to magnetic field weaknesses. I have noticed that strong magnetic fields seem to make most people feel good and weakened fields seem to make a lot of people grouchy. Just about the entire animal kingdom for that matter…

  44. Frizzy says:

    rbateman says:
    September 25, 2011 at 2:56 pm

    Don says:
    September 25, 2011 at 1:00 pm

    It should have been obvious, but nevertheless, once more:
    You have 10 coins in your pocket. What is the total value?
    ——-
    a.) 0, there’s a hole in your pocket
    b.) 0, the Feds took ‘em all
    c.) 10 cents
    d.) noncents
    5.) blue, no wait, red!
    8 – )

  45. re post by: Don says: September 25, 2011 at 11:40 am

    Was looking for this…always gives me a laugh.
    http://www.ucar.edu/news/releases/2006/sunspot.shtml

    According to google scholar, that article was cited 125 times. It’s interesting that searching on the lead author’s name returns a second paper in a different journal that looks awfully similar. I suppose one would have to actually read both papers to see if they’re essentially the same work or if they are somehow different. Regardless, the same “we predict that cycle 24 will be 30%-50% stronger than the current cycle 23″ claim is in it’s abstract too.

    They weren’t the only ones predicting a large cycle apparently. The following article was cited 52 times.

    Geomagnetic activity indicates large amplitude for sunspot cycle 24
    [PDF] from nasa.govDH Hathaway, RM Wilson – Geophysical …, 2006 – solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/papers/hathadh/HathawayWilson2006.pdf

    In which it was said: “…size of the recent maximum in this second component indicates that solar activity cycle 24 will be much higher than average – similar in size to cycles
    21 and 22 with a peak smoothed sunspot number of 160 ± 25….”

    Yet a year before either of those articles, Leif Svalgaard published:

    Sunspot cycle 24: Smallest cycle in 100 years?
    [PDF] from dtic.milL Svalgaard – 2005 – DTIC Document
    http://oai.dtic.mil/oai/oai?verb=getRecord&metadataPrefix=html&identifier=ADA434948

    I haven’t gone into each to get their actual prediction numbers & compare to observed data, but I’d think it probably safe to make a modest bet on who’s been closer at least.

  46. rbateman says:

    Here’s the field of predictions:
    http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

  47. Brian H says:

    Spector;
    Though you may admire the sun’s flair, we’re talking about flares here. Please try to stay on topic.
    >:(
    >:p

  48. mwhite says:

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/satellite/

    Forbush events

    The theory goes something like this. If GCRs play a role in cloud formation, then when they decrease you should be able to detect an decrease in cloudiness or conversely an increase in solar radiation reaching the surface.

  49. M.A.Vukcevic says:

    Rational Debate says:
    September 26, 2011 at 12:37 am
    …………….
    It is this article
    http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2006/21dec_cycle24/
    that prompted the correspondence with Dr. Hathaway. My graph
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NFC7.htm
    (updated with SSN since) with the relevant formulae was forwarded, and Dr. Hathaway promptly declared it as a nonsense.

  50. Steve C says:

    @ Brian H – but as my boss (several decades ago) used to say, “Let’s not get pendantic about this …”.

    (Nobody ever corrected him) ;-)

  51. Dr. Lurtz says:

    Is there a correlation between Sunspot size and the magnitude of the 10.7cm Flux??

  52. Carla says:

    rbateman says:
    September 25, 2011 at 10:25 am
    Richard111 says:
    September 25, 2011 at 8:54 am
    Nothing in the southern regions?

    You got it. In fact, I would say that the northern region is a fraction of where it should be in a normal cycle.
    ~
    I still have to wonder if this is an Interstellar Magnetic Field (ISMF) issue.
    We know that the polarity of the solar Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) affects the amount of geomagnetic activity here on Earth’s field, so why wouldn’t the ISMF affect the IMF activity of the solar field.
    Wonder if solar cycle 25 will have more southern hemisphere spots. That would be interesting or atleast provide some clues..

    Earlier today Spaceweather.com showed a proton spike of 30 whoa..where did it go..

  53. Carla says:

    Anyone know if the solar system on its travels, bobs up and down the galactic magnetic fields equator?

  54. Gail Combs says:

    “Alchemy says @ September 25, 2011 at 10:53 am

    Wasn’t it a month ago that the terms “new Dalton/Maunder minimum” and “quiet sun” were in play?

    Wakee, bloody wakee, Polly.”

    A grand minimun is about the number of sunspots NOT the number of solar flares. Flares are expected during the max peak of a solar cycle. So all this flare tells us is that we are nearing the peak of solar cycle 24.

    Straight from NASA: http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2008/06may_carringtonflare/
    “”What Carrington saw was a white-light solar flare—a magnetic explosion on the sun,” explains David Hathaway, solar physics team lead at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama.

    Now we know that solar flares happen frequently, especially during solar sunspot maximum. Most betray their existence by releasing X-rays (recorded by X-ray telescopes in space) and radio noise (recorded by radio telescopes in space and on Earth).”

    Not only that but the Carrington Event occurred during a similar weak solar cycle.
    Again from NASA:http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2009/29may_noaaprediction/

    “”If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78,” says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.

    It is tempting to describe such a cycle as “weak” or “mild,” but that could give the wrong impression.

    “Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,” points out Biesecker. “The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013.”

    Throwing out unsupported statements without doing your homework may work elsewhere but not here…

  55. M.A.Vukcevic says:
    September 26, 2011 at 4:28 am
    My graph with the relevant formulae was forwarded, and Dr. Hathaway promptly declared it as a nonsense.
    And he was right. You can turn out to be correct [as several other low-ball predictions from before 2005] for the wrong reason.

  56. Carla says:
    September 26, 2011 at 5:55 am
    so why wouldn’t the ISMF affect the IMF activity of the solar field.
    As I have explained to you many times before, the solar wind prevents the ISMF from entering the heliosphere.

  57. Amy Gabel says:

    Well I came here hoping to gain a little knowledge and too see what all this solar flare talk was about and only learned that I have found yet another site with a bunch of people who act like morons. Even if the arguments were validated, they could have been done in a more mature fashion. Grow up! How do you expect anybody to take you seriously when you act like my three year old without a nap?

  58. Bill Parsons says:

    rbateman says:
    September 26, 2011 at 1:52 am

    Here’s the field of predictions:
    http://users.telenet.be/j.janssens/SC24.html

    I see that Goldman – Sachs is down for “70″ as well as “200″.

  59. Carla says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    September 26, 2011 at 9:15 am
    Carla says:
    September 26, 2011 at 5:55 am
    so why wouldn’t the ISMF affect the IMF activity of the solar field.
    As I have explained to you many times before, the solar wind prevents the ISMF from entering the heliosphere.
    ~
    But there are gaps and bumps in the IMF. And yes stuff does get upwind. Just ask IMAGE and LENA and IBEX. And how bout a heliospheric bow shock producing fermi accelerated particles to 1AU ..

    One last thing. Earth’s field is embedded in the IMF. The solar IMF is embedded in the ISMF.
    Maybe it ISMF is fragmented in this neck of the Local interstellar neighborhood. Something to do with cloudlett boundaries..

    And one day we find out that all this accretion and reconnection played a significant, primary role in the solar cycle with its variations.
    rant off.

  60. phlogiston says:

    Just a few months ago we were shown incontrovertable evidence that following the last 2 weak cycles 23 and 24, there will be no cycle 25. There were three independent lines of evidence, the poleward movement of sunspots, the magnetic field decline, and one other that I cant remember.

    This is pretty significant in the solar discussion. One and possibly two cycles are going to drop out, just as in some previous major solar minima.

    So why now try to talk up a solar flare or two into some sort of trend? Do we have the memory span of goldfish in a bowl?

  61. M.A.Vukcevic says:

    Leif Svalgaard says:
    September 26, 2011 at 8:55 am
    And he was right. You can turn out to be correct [as several other low-ball predictions from before 2005] for the wrong reason.

    Hi doc
    Nice to see you are back.
    Perhaps it is better to be correct for the wrong reason, then to be wrong for the right reason.
    But as you say: If correlation is really good …..
    http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/LFC2.htm

  62. rbateman says:

    Dr. Lurtz says:
    September 26, 2011 at 4:54 am
    Is there a correlation between Sunspot size and the magnitude of the 10.7cm Flux??

    Debrecen Obs. Sunspot size data:
    http://fenyi.sci.klte.hu/DPD/index.html
    Penticon Flux data:
    ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt

    That’s going to be a lot of work, if someone hasn’t already gone there, done that.

  63. rbateman says:

    Bill H says:
    September 25, 2011 at 5:00 pm

    From the looks of the SDO 195 AIA and STEREO AHEAD & BEHIND EUVI 195′s, it does look like the Sun is cooling back down. It’s recharging the shocker for another big blast, maybe even a Carrington-level event. – clear! – bzzaapp!

  64. EMPrepper says:

    Many people are preparing for such affects from solar activity with Faraday cages and bags. The current that flows from a CME can damage most electronics. I got some Faraday bags from techprotectbag.com. They are rated with a military specification so I think they will work.

  65. TRM says:

    ” Douglas DC says: September 25, 2011 at 9:31 am
    The Carrington Event of Sept. 1,1859- was during a relatively shallow cycle as I recall…. ”

    Which makes me wonder if the largest flares occur during the shallow cycles all the time? Does the same amount of energy get released by the sun each cycle? If so then during cycles with low numbers of events all the excess energy gets expunged in one big one?

    If so I hope it isn’t aimed at us.

  66. Carla says:
    September 26, 2011 at 12:46 pm
    And yes stuff does get upwind. Just ask IMAGE and LENA and IBEX.
    Neutral particles can go upstream. Magnetic fields cannot, and do not.

    M.A.Vukcevic says:
    September 26, 2011 at 1:55 pm
    But as you say: If correlation is really good …..
    Except it is not. Fails when you go back in time. As you well know.

  67. Bill H says:

    rbateman says:
    September 25, 2011 at 8:57 pm

    At or quite near Solar Max, yes. Maybe a year left, but this is no normal cycle, we shouldn’t really expect normal progression. Remember that map of the currents below the surface that showed that SC25 hasn’t even seeded yet? Wonder if there’s an update.

    —————————————————————————-

    No information available… everything i have looked at shows that SC25 has not even created enough under tow to bee seen. given the low noise threshold that SC24 is giving, the inability to see SC25 is truly scary… it could be 1/2 or lower of the current cycle..

    I think Brrrrrrrrrr will be a commonplace word soon… with Multi-decadal oscillations all cold were in for a significant cool down… despite what our alarmist friends think..

  68. Bill H says:

    rbateman says:
    September 26, 2011 at 2:40 pm

    From the looks of the SDO 195 AIA and STEREO AHEAD & BEHIND EUVI 195′s, it does look like the Sun is cooling back down. It’s recharging the shocker for another big blast, maybe even a Carrington-level event. – clear! – bzzaapp!

    _____________________________________________________

    Potential for a nice healthy zap to the earth is there…. no doubt about it..

    I see that 1230 is already dropping off and beginning to diminish. if we get that Carrington Zap, expect the sun to cool rapidly and our move into the down side of this cycle will be swift. I’m just looking to SC25 and it doesn’t look pretty.. flat line… comes to mind…

  69. Anthony Watts says:

    Yeah the Carrington event thought crossed my mind too. It reminds me of a sawtooth wave from a capacitor charge circuit. We just had another xray event just now:

    http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/Xray.gif

  70. Bill H says:

    Anthony,
    if you ground short a capacitor it changes the molecular bond of the plates…. if you think about the sun as a huge capacitor, a Carrington event is that ground short… it then takes time for a new charge to develop.. it must first overcome the molecular change.. return the Ions and protons to their proper orbital state. on the sun that can take years.. it also explains why the sun rapidly slows its spot formation after an event..

    just waiting for that huge CME to happen… i hope we are not in the line of fire… something about power lines melting just doesn’t strike me as fun…

  71. Ed Mertin says:

    Re: Joe Bastardi,
    About the LIA I’m more into this as cause & effect. http://m.sciencemag.org/content/206/4425/1402

Comments are closed.