ENSO Forecast Page

Note on ENSO Forecast Skill: ENSO forecast skills are generally low. Research indicates “skills somewhat lower than those found for the less advanced models of the 1980s and 1990s,” with “decadal variations in the character of ENSO variability” being a greater skill-determining factor than advances in models. (Barnston et al.) Additionally, “model predictions of ENSO made before March–May have been shown to have very low skill” due to the Spring Prediction Barrier. — Bob Tisdale

Niño 3.4 Forecasts – NOAA CPC

Niño 3.4 Anomaly Forecasts

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 3.4 Standardized Anomaly Forecasts

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 3.4 Standardized Temperature Forecasts

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source


IRI/CPC Plume of Model ENSO Predictions

⟳ The IRI ENSO forecast plume is updated monthly. The images previously embedded here were hardcoded to March 2018 and are no longer current. Visit the IRI current ENSO forecast page for the latest plume and probabilistic forecast charts.

IRI – Current ENSO Forecast (plume and probabilistic forecast – updated monthly)

Columbia University – NOAA – International Research Institute (IRI)/CPC
The IRI forecast page includes: Niño 3.4 SST plume of model predictions, probabilistic ENSO forecast (El Niño/Neutral/La Niña), and detailed model information.


CPC CFSv2 Niño Region Seasonal SST Anomaly Forecasts

The forecasts below show the progression of Niño SST anomaly forecasts over 30 days — “Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. E1 is from the earliest 10 days, E2 from the second earliest 10 days, and E3 from the latest 10 days.” — CPC

Niño 1+2 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 3 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 3.4 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 4 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – Ensemble E1 (earliest 10 days)

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Ensemble E1 – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – Ensemble E2

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Ensemble E2 – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – Ensemble E3 (most recent 10 days)

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Ensemble E3 – Click the pic to view at source

Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – 80 Forecast Members

NOAA – Climate Prediction Center – Click the pic to view at source


Source Guide:

NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Home Page – https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
ENSO Briefing Forecasts – https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/
CFSv2 Seasonal Forecasts – https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml
ENSO Forecasts Image Directory – https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/
GODAS – https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/

IRI/LDEO – Columbia University
Current ENSO Forecast – https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/
ENSO Forecast Archive – https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/archive/
Data Library – https://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/

The climate data they don't want you to find — free, to your inbox.
Join readers who get 5–8 new articles daily — no algorithms, no shadow bans.
5 4 votes
Article Rating
Subscribe
Notify of
13 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
latecommer2014
June 9, 2014 6:14 am

So it appears that chances for a strong El Niño are slipping away…..have I read this correctly?

emsnews
January 15, 2015 6:24 am

El Nino is now el Morte. He’s dead, Jim.

Don Perry
Reply to  emsnews
July 31, 2015 7:54 am

Would you like to reconsider that death pronouncement at this time? There seems to have been a resurrection.

El Niño
August 11, 2015 2:44 am

El Niño isn’t dead, he just used old data

emsnews
April 9, 2016 4:22 am

Now, as we see one snow storm after another upstate NY in April, all the el Nino data shows that it began a steep decline in January and this got steeper in February and March and now in April, it is pretty much finished as I predicted.

emsnews
Reply to  emsnews
May 13, 2016 6:06 am

mid-May, 2016: snow upstate NY as things cool down rapidly.

September 1, 2017 9:44 am

Read about jet streams being accelerated by mid-latitude oxygen/ozone conversion, accentuating Rossby wave meanders. Study the new theory on your desktop monitor at this dedicated website:
https://www.harrytodd.org

Reply to  harrytodd
September 21, 2017 2:44 am
Tim McMurphy
January 5, 2019 6:58 pm

Now I’ve got conflicting Monty Python skits running through my head. “The Parrot” and “I’m not dead”.

Barbee
March 7, 2019 7:23 pm

Dear Anthony,
Please bring back the ENSO meter thumbnail that was located on the sidebar.
I looked at that often and I miss it! 🙁
Thanks

Barbee
April 4, 2019 8:57 pm

Thank You! 🙂

January 12, 2020 9:45 am

Anthony, did you notice that NASA’s GMAO model is an outlier for the ENSO prediction here in January 2020? It predicts La Niña this year, with a massive cooling expected! What gives? Whatsupwiththat? https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/ The folks at Columbia didn’t even mention NASA by name when it said, “Only one model predicts La Niña development.” Hmmm.

Matt Dalby
December 8, 2020 2:53 pm

It appears that ENSO forecasting is still pretty poor and this winter’s la nina isn’t going to be anywhere as strong as was predicted a couple of months ago. Chances of the UAH temperature anomaly being negative in the spring seem to be slight to non existant, unless they change the reference period from 1981-2010 to 1991-2020 which they should to meet World Meterological Organisation guidelines. Doing so will reduce all future anomalies by aprox. 0.15 degrees, so the chances of NASA and NOOA doing this are probably quite small