I’ve lived in the same area for 50 years. In the sixties we often had to break thick ice so the horses could drink.for three straight years we haven’t had frost, I’m still growing unprotected summer vegetables. Weather is always warm now, unlike some people I refuse to bury my head in the sand.
You just provided an anecdote and then followed by saying that anecdotes from small geographic areas aren’t relevant! Your garden is doing better. Is this the “crisis” I keep hearing about? Is your garden a large geographic area?
Solomon Green
December 10, 2012 9:28 am
I am fascinated. Looking at just the peaks and 1998 to 2010+ in particular, it would appear that not only does the monthly mean global surface temperature anomaly [NASA/GISS] disagree with UAH lower atmosphere temperature anomalies [UAH], which is surprising but just conceivable, but both of these disagree with the global average land temperature anomaly 1850-2011 [Met Office Hadley Centre], which in turn disagrees with the January December global mean temperature over land and ocean anomaly [NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA].
While it is true that the averages on which the anomalies are based are taken over different periods, this should not affect the peaks. What am I missing?
dana j craig
December 11, 2012 11:02 pm
In all fairness. I am doing my best to be impartial while examining the climate issue. Your site claims there has been no net warming for the last 16 years. I assume your organization does not deploy satellites or gather temprature data or conduct research. Therefore all of your conclusions must be based on data gathered by ” THEM “. How can you be better at deciphering this mountain of gobblelygook than the eggheads who created it? Don’t take it personal, I irritate the warmists as well. Only the truth matters. Thanks for your time
dana j craig says: December 11, 2012 at 11:02 pm In all fairness. I am doing my best to be impartial while examining the climate issue.
A difficult, but quite admirable goal. Your site claims there has been no net warming for the last 16 years.
WUWT makes no claims whatsoever. However, the data for numerous independent sources indicates that there has been minimal or no warming during the last 16 years. I assume your organization does not deploy satellites or gather temprature data or conduct research.
There’s really no organization per se, and we certainly don’t deploy satellites. However, we do conduct a lot of research and we have gathered, what is likely the largest collection of 3rd party climatic temperature data ever to exist, on our references pages . A good example of this research and gathering is this recent Big Picture Look At “Earth’s Temperature”: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/11/10/a-big-picture-look-at-earths-temperature-extreme-weather-update/ Therefore all of your conclusions must be based on data gathered by ” THEM “.
Unequivocally our conclusions must be based on data gathered by “THEM”, however “THEM” is not an unknown. For example, the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) data; http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Nov_2012_v5.5.png
is collected by 3 satellites (NOAA-15, NOAA-18, and Aqua); http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2012-deg-c/
and then processed by Dr. Roy W. Spencer who;
received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite. http://www.drroyspencer.com/about/
and Dr. John Christy who;
“received a B.A. in Mathematics from California State University, Fresno in 1973, and an M.S. and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences from the University of Illinois in 1984 and 1987”. “He is a distinguished professor of atmospheric science, and director of the Earth System Science Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville. He was appointed Alabama’s state climatologist in 2000. For his development of a global temperature data set from satellites he was awarded NASA’s Medal for Exceptional Scientific Achievement, and the American Meteorological Society’s “Special Award.”[1] In 2002, Christy was elected Fellow of the American Meteorological Society.” “Christy was a lead author of the 2001 report by the IPCC[6] and the U.S. CCSP report Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere – Understanding and Reconciling Differences.[4] Christy helped draft and signed the 2003 American Geophysical Union statement on climate change.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Christy
My hypothesis: if we remove all of the carbon from the earths crust and put it in the atmosphere.. something will be effected. This i believe. In a warmer world water will evaporate faster, the atmosphere holds more water vapor, trapping more heat, ice melts, more heat gets absorbed, and of course more precipitation. Not confusing. I just read that increased precipitation on the Antarctica ice sheet will speed up glacier movement thus dumping more water in the oceans. As a result sea level will rise! What?? Didnt that same water evaporate out of the ocean in the first place? So it seems precipitation in antartica is dangerous! I hope the rain n snow elsewhere remains benign.
more atmospheric water vapor means more clouds more albedo and lowered temps too
dana j craig
December 13, 2012 6:46 pm
About graph, global monthly mean temperature 1996-2012 at http// data.giss.NASA.gov. I did a statistical analysis using several methods. I had a friend do the same. Our results were almost identical. Between 1996 and 2012 .3C increase in temperature was detected. This is consistent with many other reports found in science journals. this graph is found at the watts up site. Yet it clearly supports the warming associated with anthropogenic C02 emissions. I invite any and all who read this to examine this issue with vigor.
D Böehm
December 13, 2012 6:56 pm
dana j craig says:
“Between 1996 and 2012 .3C increase in temperature was detected. This … clearly supports the warming associated with anthropogenic C02 emissions.”
That is simply an assertion, it is not scientific evidence. You need to understand the difference between scientific evidence and coincidence.
The rise in global temperature you cite is well within the long term parameters of the global warming trend since the LIA. There has been no recent acceleration of the trend. In fact, there has been no global warming for sixteen years despite rising CO2 levels.
The long term trend has been the same, whether CO2 was low or high. Therefore, CO2 is not the driver. If it was, global temperatures would be accelerating. They are not.
dana j craig
December 13, 2012 8:38 pm
Ok i think i see your point. Although warming is happening, there has been no acceleration of this warming for the past 16 years.
dana j craig
December 16, 2012 10:58 am
According to the graphs on your website and others, the world has warmed. Arctic sea ice behavier infers the same.antartic sea ice has grown modestly while antartic ice sheets have thinned. The sun hasn’t warmed nor has cosmic rays( grasping for straws) done diddly. To be skeptic while increasingly reliable scientific evidence piles higher… Well you know. I really enjoyed my conversations with Dr. Spencer who plays well even when holding lousy cards.
richardscourtney
December 16, 2012 11:27 am
dana j craig:
I am commenting on your posts at December 13, 2012 at 8:38 pm and December 16, 2012 at 10:58 am.
There has been no global warming discernible at 95% confidence for 16 years.
For example, see the graph copied from the IPCC AR5 draft which is at http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/14/the-real-ipcc-ar5-draft-bombshell-plus-a-poll/
I recognise that reality disagrees with your beliefs and I sympathise with your pain when this is pointed out to you. But there has been no discernible global warming for 16 years and you need to come to terms with it.
Richard
dana j craig
December 16, 2012 7:35 pm
K I saw the ” up the down escalatior” I saw the graph that was altered. I had already realized the graphs were suspicious. The same red lines both altered the meaning and commented on the significant alteration. For years your ilk has knowingly delayed, confused and misled the public. Your name may very well go down in history as a result of your fine work. Soon enough( let’s hope) the doubting ( but vocal ) will realize watts up. Your influence and artic sea ice share a common destiny.
dana j craig says: December 13, 2012 at 6:46 pm About graph, global monthly mean temperature 1996-2012 at http// data.giss.NASA.gov. I did a statistical analysis using several methods. I had a friend do the same. Our results were almost identical. Between 1996 and 2012 .3C increase in temperature was detected. This is consistent with many other reports found in science journals. this graph is found at the watts up site. Yet it clearly supports the warming associated with anthropogenic C02 emissions. I invite any and all who read this to examine this issue with vigor.
Dana, in order to address you question, we’ve conducted research and a crowdsourcing exercise: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/06/crowdsourcing-a-temperature-trend-analysi/
The result is that the following temperature records have be flat:
1. UAH: since October 2004 or 8 years, 3 months (goes to December)
2. GISS: since May 2001 or 11 years, 7 months (goes to November)
3. Combination of 4 global temperatures: since December 2000 or 11 years, 9 months (goes to August)
4. HadCrut3: since May 1997 or 15 years, 7 months (goes to November)
5. Sea surface temperatures: since March 1997 or 15 years, 8 months (goes to October)
6. RSS: since January 1997 or 16 years (goes to December) RSS is 192/204 or 94% of the way to Ben Santer’s 17 years.
7. Hadcrut4: since December 2000 or an even 12 years (goes to November.)
From a statistical significance perspective:
For RSS the warming is NOT significant for 23 years.
For RSS: +0.130 +/-0.136 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1990
For UAH, the warming is NOT significant for 19 years.
For UAH: 0.143 +/- 0.173 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994
For Hacrut3, the warming is NOT significant for 19 years.
For Hadcrut3: 0.098 +/- 0.113 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994
For Hacrut4, the warming is NOT significant for 18 years.
For Hadcrut4: 0.098 +/- 0.111 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995
For GISS, the warming is NOT significant for 17 years.
For GISS: 0.113 +/- 0.122 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1996
If you have any additional questions, please let us know.
Why is every month reported by the liberal media as the “hottest month ever in recorded history”?
Of course, the latest “hottest month ever” is July 2016.
Andyj
October 9, 2014 8:33 am
Interesting conversation With Dana J Craig there. I knew he was aiming for a bun fight with worlds like you and your “ilk” plus his accusations you’re basically making the data up.
I wonder what his job is, hint, hint. (NCDC 151 Patton Ave. Asheville, NC,).
Also looking at where he lives and that nice fishing pond in the back. I thought maybe looking at January weather to see if his pond actually froze might be of interest for any recent year before he wrote. http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/asheville/north-carolina/united-states/usnc0022/2010/1
What can I say? The guy is a porker.
He hasn’t got so much as a Solar panel on his roof and it’s quite a long walk for a water melon to get to work.
So sad…
What happens to our planet in the last few years draws one to certain conclusions. The last year is especially significant, when droughts, floods, earthquakes, eruptions, hurricanes and other climate disasters gathered steam. As I found out from this program https://allatra.tv/en/video/it-is-coming , such climate changes are cyclical and inevitable. But our salvation is in the hands of the people themselves, the main thing is not to see the enemy in others, but to demonstrate only the best human qualities.
Ray
July 20, 2019 2:31 pm
In 1895 citrus was grown throughout both the peninsula and panhandle of Florida. Citrus was also grown in coastal GA and SC. As winter temps dropped the northern line of citrus has moved south and is now in Kissimmee Fl, over 250 miles south of 1895. So if temps are on the rise why is Florida going the other way?
My theory: on the off chance that we eliminate all of the carbon from the earths covering and put it in the environment.. something will be affected. This I accept. In a hotter world water will vanish quicker, the air holds more water fume, catching more hotness, ice liquefies, more hotness gets retained, and obviously more precipitation. Not confounding. I recently read that expanded precipitation on the Antarctica ice sheet will accelerate icy mass development hence unloading more water in the seas.
I’ve lived in similar region for quite a long time. In the sixties we frequently needed to break thick ice so the ponies could drink.for three straight years we haven’t had ice, I’m actually developing unprotected summer vegetables. Climate is dependably warm now, not at all like certain individuals I won’t shy away from reality.
Wow, according to the above graphs the world is warming fast. Especially since the seventies. I’m going to save this page n share it.
dana j craig,
Don’t forget to share the lower troposphere temperature trend page. That one is the global warming key.
I’ve lived in the same area for 50 years. In the sixties we often had to break thick ice so the horses could drink.for three straight years we haven’t had frost, I’m still growing unprotected summer vegetables. Weather is always warm now, unlike some people I refuse to bury my head in the sand.
dana j craig says: December 10, 2012 at 3:54 am
I’ve lived in the same area for 50 years. In the sixties we often had to break thick ice so the horses could drink.for three straight years we haven’t had frost, I’m still growing unprotected summer vegetables. Weather is always warm now, unlike some people I refuse to bury my head in the sand.
Anecdotes from small geographic areas aren’t relevant to the “Global” Warming debate. Try identifying global trends, e.g. global temperature hasn’t increased in 16 years:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.C.gif
ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/graphics/tlt/plots/rss_ts_channel_tlt_global_land_and_sea_v03_3.png
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2217286/Global-warming-stopped-16-years-ago-reveals-Met-Office-report-quietly-released–chart-prove-it.html
You just provided an anecdote and then followed by saying that anecdotes from small geographic areas aren’t relevant! Your garden is doing better. Is this the “crisis” I keep hearing about? Is your garden a large geographic area?
I am fascinated. Looking at just the peaks and 1998 to 2010+ in particular, it would appear that not only does the monthly mean global surface temperature anomaly [NASA/GISS] disagree with UAH lower atmosphere temperature anomalies [UAH], which is surprising but just conceivable, but both of these disagree with the global average land temperature anomaly 1850-2011 [Met Office Hadley Centre], which in turn disagrees with the January December global mean temperature over land and ocean anomaly [NCDC/NESDIS/NOAA].
While it is true that the averages on which the anomalies are based are taken over different periods, this should not affect the peaks. What am I missing?
In all fairness. I am doing my best to be impartial while examining the climate issue. Your site claims there has been no net warming for the last 16 years. I assume your organization does not deploy satellites or gather temprature data or conduct research. Therefore all of your conclusions must be based on data gathered by ” THEM “. How can you be better at deciphering this mountain of gobblelygook than the eggheads who created it? Don’t take it personal, I irritate the warmists as well. Only the truth matters. Thanks for your time
dana j craig says: December 11, 2012 at 11:02 pm
In all fairness. I am doing my best to be impartial while examining the climate issue.
A difficult, but quite admirable goal.
Your site claims there has been no net warming for the last 16 years.
WUWT makes no claims whatsoever. However, the data for numerous independent sources indicates that there has been minimal or no warming during the last 16 years.
I assume your organization does not deploy satellites or gather temprature data or conduct research.
There’s really no organization per se, and we certainly don’t deploy satellites. However, we do conduct a lot of research and we have gathered, what is likely the largest collection of 3rd party climatic temperature data ever to exist, on our references pages . A good example of this research and gathering is this recent Big Picture Look At “Earth’s Temperature”:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/11/10/a-big-picture-look-at-earths-temperature-extreme-weather-update/
Therefore all of your conclusions must be based on data gathered by ” THEM “.
Unequivocally our conclusions must be based on data gathered by “THEM”, however “THEM” is not an unknown. For example, the University of Alabama at Huntsville (UAH) data;
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/UAH_LT_1979_thru_Nov_2012_v5.5.png
is collected by 3 satellites (NOAA-15, NOAA-18, and Aqua);
http://www.drroyspencer.com/2012/10/uah-global-temperature-update-for-september-2012-deg-c/
and then processed by Dr. Roy W. Spencer who;
and Dr. John Christy who;
Roy and John’s UAH temperature updates are regularly posted on WUWT:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/12/uah-global-temperature-down-slightly-for-november-2012/
I have met Roy and exchanged emails with John. John actually corrected one of my prior Big Picture Looks At “Global Temperature” updates by noting that RSS and UAH anomalies are not comparable because they use different base periods, i.e., “RSS only uses 1979-1998 (20 years) while UAH uses the WMO standard of 1981-2010.”
How can you be better at deciphering this mountain of gobblelygook than the eggheads who created it?
There is definitely no “better” and no need for “deciphering”, the data is what it is. You can access the UAH data yourself from here;
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt
the RSS data from here;
ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tls_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
the MET Office data from here;
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut3/data/download.html
or the NASA GISS data from here;
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
and chart it for yourself in Excel. Lord Monckton was nice enough to lay out the steps for doing so here:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/07/monckton-on-his-smashing-u-n-wall-of-silence-on-lack-of-warming-and-censure/
Don’t take it personal, I irritate the warmists as well.
Definitely not taken personally, and certainly not irritating. Challenge, criticism and debate are most welcome, as these are core elements in advancing human knowledge.
Only the truth matters.
Well said.
Thanks for your time
And thank you for yours.
My hypothesis: if we remove all of the carbon from the earths crust and put it in the atmosphere.. something will be effected. This i believe. In a warmer world water will evaporate faster, the atmosphere holds more water vapor, trapping more heat, ice melts, more heat gets absorbed, and of course more precipitation. Not confusing. I just read that increased precipitation on the Antarctica ice sheet will speed up glacier movement thus dumping more water in the oceans. As a result sea level will rise! What?? Didnt that same water evaporate out of the ocean in the first place? So it seems precipitation in antartica is dangerous! I hope the rain n snow elsewhere remains benign.
more atmospheric water vapor means more clouds more albedo and lowered temps too
About graph, global monthly mean temperature 1996-2012 at http// data.giss.NASA.gov. I did a statistical analysis using several methods. I had a friend do the same. Our results were almost identical. Between 1996 and 2012 .3C increase in temperature was detected. This is consistent with many other reports found in science journals. this graph is found at the watts up site. Yet it clearly supports the warming associated with anthropogenic C02 emissions. I invite any and all who read this to examine this issue with vigor.
dana j craig says:
“Between 1996 and 2012 .3C increase in temperature was detected. This … clearly supports the warming associated with anthropogenic C02 emissions.”
That is simply an assertion, it is not scientific evidence. You need to understand the difference between scientific evidence and coincidence.
The rise in global temperature you cite is well within the long term parameters of the global warming trend since the LIA. There has been no recent acceleration of the trend. In fact, there has been no global warming for sixteen years despite rising CO2 levels.
The long term trend has been the same, whether CO2 was low or high. Therefore, CO2 is not the driver. If it was, global temperatures would be accelerating. They are not.
Ok i think i see your point. Although warming is happening, there has been no acceleration of this warming for the past 16 years.
According to the graphs on your website and others, the world has warmed. Arctic sea ice behavier infers the same.antartic sea ice has grown modestly while antartic ice sheets have thinned. The sun hasn’t warmed nor has cosmic rays( grasping for straws) done diddly. To be skeptic while increasingly reliable scientific evidence piles higher… Well you know. I really enjoyed my conversations with Dr. Spencer who plays well even when holding lousy cards.
dana j craig:
I am commenting on your posts at December 13, 2012 at 8:38 pm and December 16, 2012 at 10:58 am.
There has been no global warming discernible at 95% confidence for 16 years.
For example, see the graph copied from the IPCC AR5 draft which is at
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/14/the-real-ipcc-ar5-draft-bombshell-plus-a-poll/
I recognise that reality disagrees with your beliefs and I sympathise with your pain when this is pointed out to you. But there has been no discernible global warming for 16 years and you need to come to terms with it.
Richard
K I saw the ” up the down escalatior” I saw the graph that was altered. I had already realized the graphs were suspicious. The same red lines both altered the meaning and commented on the significant alteration. For years your ilk has knowingly delayed, confused and misled the public. Your name may very well go down in history as a result of your fine work. Soon enough( let’s hope) the doubting ( but vocal ) will realize watts up. Your influence and artic sea ice share a common destiny.
dana j craig says: December 13, 2012 at 6:46 pm
About graph, global monthly mean temperature 1996-2012 at http// data.giss.NASA.gov. I did a statistical analysis using several methods. I had a friend do the same. Our results were almost identical. Between 1996 and 2012 .3C increase in temperature was detected. This is consistent with many other reports found in science journals. this graph is found at the watts up site. Yet it clearly supports the warming associated with anthropogenic C02 emissions. I invite any and all who read this to examine this issue with vigor.
Dana, in order to address you question, we’ve conducted research and a crowdsourcing exercise:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/01/06/crowdsourcing-a-temperature-trend-analysi/
The result is that the following temperature records have be flat:
1. UAH: since October 2004 or 8 years, 3 months (goes to December)
2. GISS: since May 2001 or 11 years, 7 months (goes to November)
3. Combination of 4 global temperatures: since December 2000 or 11 years, 9 months (goes to August)
4. HadCrut3: since May 1997 or 15 years, 7 months (goes to November)
5. Sea surface temperatures: since March 1997 or 15 years, 8 months (goes to October)
6. RSS: since January 1997 or 16 years (goes to December) RSS is 192/204 or 94% of the way to Ben Santer’s 17 years.
7. Hadcrut4: since December 2000 or an even 12 years (goes to November.)
From a statistical significance perspective:
For RSS the warming is NOT significant for 23 years.
For RSS: +0.130 +/-0.136 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1990
For UAH, the warming is NOT significant for 19 years.
For UAH: 0.143 +/- 0.173 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994
For Hacrut3, the warming is NOT significant for 19 years.
For Hadcrut3: 0.098 +/- 0.113 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1994
For Hacrut4, the warming is NOT significant for 18 years.
For Hadcrut4: 0.098 +/- 0.111 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1995
For GISS, the warming is NOT significant for 17 years.
For GISS: 0.113 +/- 0.122 C/decade at the two sigma level from 1996
If you have any additional questions, please let us know.
Why is every month reported by the liberal media as the “hottest month ever in recorded history”?
Of course, the latest “hottest month ever” is July 2016.
Interesting conversation With Dana J Craig there. I knew he was aiming for a bun fight with worlds like you and your “ilk” plus his accusations you’re basically making the data up.
I wonder what his job is, hint, hint. (NCDC 151 Patton Ave. Asheville, NC,).
Also looking at where he lives and that nice fishing pond in the back. I thought maybe looking at January weather to see if his pond actually froze might be of interest for any recent year before he wrote.
http://www.usclimatedata.com/climate/asheville/north-carolina/united-states/usnc0022/2010/1
What can I say? The guy is a porker.
He hasn’t got so much as a Solar panel on his roof and it’s quite a long walk for a water melon to get to work.
So sad…
Now NOAA claims 19,000 square mile of retracting sea ice is responsible for an Arctic temperature increase of 50°. The Climate fanatics will go crazy with this! https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/20/forecast-north-pole-to-warm-50-degrees-above-normal-thursday-near-melting-point/?utm_term=.60971c72004b
What happens to our planet in the last few years draws one to certain conclusions. The last year is especially significant, when droughts, floods, earthquakes, eruptions, hurricanes and other climate disasters gathered steam. As I found out from this program https://allatra.tv/en/video/it-is-coming , such climate changes are cyclical and inevitable. But our salvation is in the hands of the people themselves, the main thing is not to see the enemy in others, but to demonstrate only the best human qualities.
In 1895 citrus was grown throughout both the peninsula and panhandle of Florida. Citrus was also grown in coastal GA and SC. As winter temps dropped the northern line of citrus has moved south and is now in Kissimmee Fl, over 250 miles south of 1895. So if temps are on the rise why is Florida going the other way?
My theory: on the off chance that we eliminate all of the carbon from the earths covering and put it in the environment.. something will be affected. This I accept. In a hotter world water will vanish quicker, the air holds more water fume, catching more hotness, ice liquefies, more hotness gets retained, and obviously more precipitation. Not confounding. I recently read that expanded precipitation on the Antarctica ice sheet will accelerate icy mass development hence unloading more water in the seas.
I’ve lived in similar region for quite a long time. In the sixties we frequently needed to break thick ice so the ponies could drink.for three straight years we haven’t had ice, I’m actually developing unprotected summer vegetables. Climate is dependably warm now, not at all like certain individuals I won’t shy away from reality.