Philosophy, uncertainty, probability, consensus, the IPCC, and all that…

So What Happened to the Philosophy? Guest essay by John Ridgway Many years ago, when I was studying at university, an old joke was doing the rounds in the corridors of the physics department: Question: What is the difference between an experimental physicist, a theoretical physicist and a philosopher? Answer: Experimental physicists need thousands of…

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A Consensus Of Convenience

We publish this here, not to confirm that it is correct, but to stimulate the debate needed to determine whether or not it is correct or if it’s simply an exercise in curve fitting. ~ctm George White, August 2017 Climate science is the most controversial science of the modern era. A reason why the controversy…

Talking Truth to Climate Consensus

By Rud Istvan A sound bite summary* The climate consensus now has two derogation levels for those who disagree. Climate ‘contrarians’ like Bjørn Lomborg disagree about mitigation policies. Climate ‘deniers’ like Judith Curry disagree about the underlying climatology. The consensus does not any want any disagreement, since their science is ‘settled’ and solutions ‘clear’. They…

The American Meteorological Society @ametsoc falls into the consensus trap in a letter to Rick Perry

Yesterday, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) published a letter yesterday to U.S. Secretary of Energy Rick Perry, admonishing him for having the temerity to doubt that carbon dioxide is the “primary driver” of global warming. Here is the text of the letter. Source: https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/about-ams/ams-position-letters/letter-to-doe-secretary-perry-on-climate-change/ (PDF) Here are a few of my thoughts. The AMS, in their…

The Perils of Consensus

Victor Grauer writes: The film, “The Big Short,” and the book, “No One Would Listen,” offer instructive object lessons on the dangers of blindly accepting a consensus, no matter how convincing it might sound. The following is lightly edited version of a comment originally submitted to the RealClimate blog, but predictably it wound up in…