ENSO Forecast Page

Note: Our ENSO forecast skills are very low, i.e. recent “results indicate skills somewhat lower than those found for the less advanced models of the 1980s and 1990s” “This finding” “suggests that decadal variations in the character of ENSO variability are a greater skill-determining factor than the steady but gradual trend toward improved ENSO prediction science and models.” Barnston et al. Furthermore, “model predictions of ENSO made before March-May have been shown to have very low skill. The low skill is caused by the Spring Prediction Barrier, which is discussed in the IRI webpage” here and here. Bob Tisdale

Niño 3.4 Anomaly Forecasts:

Niño 3.4 Standardized Anomaly Forecasts:

Niño 3.4 Standardized Temperature Forecasts:

Plume of Model ENSO Predictions:

Niño 1 + 2 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:

Niño 3 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:

Niño 3.4 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:

Niño 4 SST Seasonal Anomalies Forecast:

You can see the progression of the Niño forecasts over 30 days, i.e. “Forecasts are from initial conditions of the last 30 days, with 4 runs from each day. Forecast ensembles consist of 40 members from initial a period of 10 days. The 1st ensebmle (E1) is from the earliest 10 days, the 2nd ensemble (E2) from the second earliest 10 days, and 3rd ensemble (E3) from the latest 10 days.” CPC

For Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E1

For Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E2

Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies – E3

Niño 3.4 SST Anomalies 80 Forecast Members:

Plume-Based Probabilistic ENSO Forecast:

Source Guide:

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center –

Home Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Products Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/

Consolidated Niño 3.4 Forecasts Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/tools/briefing/

ENSO NCEP coupled forecast system model version 2 (CFS2) – http://cfs.ncep.noaa.gov/

ENSO Forecasts Page http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

ENSO Forecasts FTP Pagehttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/

Monitoring and Data Products Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/MD_index.shtml

Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/

Atmospheric & SST Indices Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

Monitoring and Data Page – http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/monitoring_and_data/

FTP Page – ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) Climate Data Library -The Earth Institute at Columbia University

Home Page – http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt

General Products Page – http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=944&PageID=7868&mode=2

ENSO Products Page – http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/QuickLook.html

ENSO Forecast Archive Page – http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/archive/index_ensoprob.html

Atmospheric Circulation Products Page- http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/

Height Anomaly Loop Products Page – http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Circulation/Height_Anom_Loops.html

Atmospheric Temperature Page – http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/.Atm_Temp/

(Note that the data from this source should be viewed with  skepticism as Dr. R.K. Pachauri is the Board Chair: http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt?open=512&objID=551&PageID=0&cached=true&mode=2&userID=2)w