By Steve Goddard On June 28, I generated a forecast projection for Arctic ice during the remainder of the summer, seen below. So how is it doing so far? The…
Category: Forecasting
New Methodology Improves Winter Climate Forecasting
From NC State Press Releases (Note: the actual paper was not included with this press release) It’s hot out right now, but new research from North Carolina State University will…
Research suggests that hurricane forecasts on intensity could never be feasible
Quick- somebody tell Mike Mann: Surprisingly regular patterns in hurricane energy discovered Research suggests that hurricane forecasts on intensity could never be feasible Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona via Eurekalert Researchers…
Think-Tank Says Trained Chimp Can Predict Hurricanes Better Than NOAA… And Puts it to the Test
Chimp Predicts 6-8 Atlantic Hurricanes in 2010 Via press release: Washington, DC: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s track record in predicting the number of Atlantic hurricanes is so abysmal…
Sea Ice Graphs Have Limited Predictive Value
By Steve Goddard I like to watch the sea ice graphs as much as anyone, and have wondered how much value they have in forecasting the summer minimum. So I…
Cold from Seattle to Sao Paulo
From the “weather is not climate” department. By Steven Goddard I noticed something interesting in the NCEP forecast for the coming week. Temperatures are predicted to be below normal across a…
Predictions Of Global Mean Temperatures & IPCC Projections
Guest post by Girma Orssengo, B. Tech, MASc, PhD The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claims that human emission of CO2 causes catastrophic global warming. When such extraordinary claim…
March Modeling Madness
Is March In The Upper Midwest Losing It’s Freeze? The actual data doesn’t seem to support Climate Central’s recent claim. Guest post by Steven Goddard Yesterday, WUWT discussed an article…
Arctic Sea Ice about to hit 'normal' – what will the news say?
Forecasting The NSIDC News By Steven Goddard and Anthony Watts Barring an about face by nature or adjustments, it appears that for the first time since 2001, Arctic Sea ice…
The UK Met Office appears to have 'disappeared' their winter forecast
Guest post by Steven Goddard On July 23, 2009 the UK Met Office issued their infamous winter forecast, ahead of the coldest winter in 50 years. It read: “…Early indications…
Met Office ends season forecasts – no more "BBQ summers"
The Met Office is to stop publishing seasonal forecasts, after it came in for criticism for failing to predict extreme weather. It was berated for not foreseeing that the UK…
NWS to adopt new snow forecasting techniques
Since we’ve discussed recent heavy snowfall, this seemed like a good story to cover. via Eurekalert: Better snowfall forecasting National Weather Service adopts U of Utah powder prediction method IMAGE:…
Brace for the tipping point
Climate ‘Tipping Points’ May Arrive Without Warning, Says Top Forecaster From a UC Davis press release A new University of California, Davis, study by a top ecological forecaster says it…
Still better than the Met Office
Six more weeks of winter, Phil says Tuesday, February 02, 2010 Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press Punxsutawney Phil is held by Ben Hughes after emerging this morning from his…
Forecast modernization program
Animal rights group: Replace Punxsutawney Phil with robot Wednesday, January 27, 2010 From The Post Gazette PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. — An animal rights group wants organizers of Pennsylvania’s Groundhog Day festival…
The BBC may drop the Met Office for forecasts
From the London Times, signs that the Met Office might need a refresher course in basic forecasting skills and bonuses revoked. While I’m often critical of NOAA’s climate issues, the…
Forecasting The Arctic Oscillation
Recently the Chief of the met office went on UK TV to say: “OUR SHORT TERM FORECASTS ARE AMONG THE BEST IN THE WORLD.” (see video here) Yesterday, the UK…
Stat Model Predicts Flat Temperatures Through 2050
Doug L. Hoffman The Resilient Earth Friday, Dec 18th, 2009 While climate skeptics have gleefully pointed to the past decade’s lack of temperature rise as proof that global warming is…
Socioeconomic Impacts of Global Warming are Systematically Overestimated–Part II
Socioeconomic Impacts of Global Warming are Systematically Overestimated Part II: How Large Might be the Overestimation? Indur M. Goklany A major argument advanced for drastic GHG emission reductions is that,…
The Met Office getting a clue? – "one of the coldest winters in 100 years"
It’s not like there haven’t been clues. Like for example as I pointed out the Arctic Oscillation has gone strongly negative. The article says: “The cold weather comes despite the…
Major northern hemisphere cold snap coming
Cold event setups in atmospheric circulation patterns are aligning. Two days ago I brought to your attention that there was a strong downspike in the Arctic Oscillation Index and that…
CRU's forecast: UK winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event"
Richard North from the EU Referendum writes of a curious juxtaposition of forecasts, then and now. I thought it worth sharing here since it highlights the chutzpah with which CRU…
Our current weather: A test for forecast models – December shaping up to be one of the coldest on record in the USA
It has often been said that “Weather is not climate”, but ultimately it provides the only meaningful way to verify climate models. Did the climate models predict the cold, snowy…
Deja Vu from the Met Office?
While England basks in a winter wonderland, with more on the way, and bookmakers are now slashing odds on a white Christmas (The Times reports “The odds on a White…
You must be logged in to post a comment.