Clouds and El Nino

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach After the turn of the century, I became interested in climate science. But unlike almost everyone else, I wasn’t surprised by how much the global temperature was changing. As someone with experience with heat engines and engine governors, I know how hard it is to keep a heat engine stable…

A New Index to Willis’s Posts

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, my old index to my posts was out of date, and I finally got tired of not being able to find things that I’ve written. This is me trying to figure it out. So I wrote a program in the computer language “R”. It takes as input a list…

Cooling and Warming, Clouds and Thunderstorms

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Following up on a suggestion made to me by one of my long-time scientific heroes, Dr. Fred Singer, I’ve been looking at the rainfall dataset from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Here’s s the TRMM average rainfall data for the entire mission to date: Figure 1. Average annual…

The Thermostatic Throttle

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I have theorized that the reflective nature of the tropical clouds, in particular those of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) just above the equator, functions as the “throttle” on the global climate engine. We’re all familiar with what a throttle does, because the gas pedal on your car controls the…

Evidence that Clouds Actively Regulate the Temperature

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I have put forth the idea for some time now that one of the main climate thermoregulatory mechanisms is a temperature-controlled sharp increase in albedo in the tropical regions. I have explained that this occurs in a stepwise fashion when cumulus clouds first emerge, and that the albedo is further…

Further Evidence for my Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach For some time now I’ve been wondering what kind of new evidence I could come up with to add support to my Thunderstorm Thermostat hypothesis (q.v.). This is the idea that cumulus clouds and thunderstorms combine to cap the rise of tropical temperatures. In particular, thunderstorms are able to drive…

An Index to Willis’s Writings

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach. In an effort to make some sense out of my posts and to enable me to refer to them and remember where they are located and what they are about, I put together a list by category, along with a short description of each one. Figure 1. I try to…

The Thermostat Hypothesis

Guest Essay by Willis Eschenbach Abstract The Thermostat Hypothesis is that tropical clouds and thunderstorms actively regulate the temperature of the earth. This keeps the earth at a equilibrium temperature. Several kinds of evidence are presented to establish and elucidate the Thermostat Hypothesis – historical temperature stability of the Earth, theoretical considerations, satellite photos, and…

Timing Is Everything

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach My theory about the climate is that the global temperature is regulated in large part by the timing and strength of the daily appearance of tropical clouds and thunderstorms. I hold that when the tropical temperatures are higher, that the cumulus cloud field and associated thunderstorms forms both earlier and…

TAO Sea and Air Temperature Differences

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The TAO buoy array is an array of moored buoys in the equatorial tropical Pacific ocean. Here’s a map showing their locations along with the average sea surface temperature. Figure 1. Locations of all active and historical TAO buoy sites. And here is what a typical buoy setup looks like:…

Putting the Brakes on Satellite Acceleration

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I discussed acceleration in the tide gauge records in a previous post. However, people are also claiming that either there is acceleration in the satellite record or there will soon be acceleration. So I thought I’d take a look at the satellite-measured sea level question. First, here’s the satellite data:…

Estimating Cloud Feedback Using CERES Data

.Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As usual, Dr. Judith Curry’s Week In Review – Science Edition contains interesting studies. I took a look at one entitled “Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models“, by Ceppi et al., hereinafter Ceppi2017. The paper looks at the changes in the radiative effects of clouds. From…

How Thunderstorms Beat The Heat

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I got to thinking again about the thunderstorms, and how much heat they remove from the surface by means of evaporation. We have good data on this from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites. Here is the distribution and strength of rainfall, and thus evaporation, around the middle of…

In The Land of El Nino

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [UPDATE: When reading the comments, you’ll notice a number of nasty untrue personal attacks made on me by three commenters with the screen names “Lady Gaiagaia”, “Gloria Swansong”, and “Sturgishooper”. One of them makes an attack, another jumps in to agree, the third one says the first two are right … that…

22 Very Inconvenient Climate Truths

Here are 22 good reasons not to believe the statements made by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guest essay by Jean-Pierre Bardinet. According to the official statements of the IPCC “Science is clear” and non-believers cannot be trusted. Quick action is needed! For more than 30 years we have been told that we…

The Eruption Over the IPCC AR5

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In the leaked version of the upcoming United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Chapter 1, we find the following claims regarding volcanoes. The forcing from stratospheric volcanic aerosols can have a large impact on the climate for some years after volcanic eruptions. Several…

Decadal Oscillations Of The Pacific Kind

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The recent post here on WUWT about the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has a lot of folks claiming that the PDO is useful for predicting the future of the climate … I don’t think so myself, and this post is about why I don’t think the PDO predicts the climate…

Air Conditioning Nairobi, Refrigerating The Planet

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve mentioned before that a thunderstorm functions as a natural refrigeration system. I’d like to explain in a bit more detail what I mean by that. However, let me start by explaining my credentials as regards my knowledge of refrigeration. The simplest explanation of my refrigeration credentials is that I…

Slow Drift in Thermoregulated Emergent Systems

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In my last post, “Emergent Climate Phenomena“, I gave a different paradigm for the climate. The current paradigm is that climate is a system in which temperature slavishly follows the changes in inputs. Under my paradigm, on the other hand, natural thermoregulatory systems constrain the temperature to vary within a…

Emergent Climate Phenomena

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In a recent post, I described how the El Nino/La Nina alteration operates as a giant pump. Whenever the Pacific Ocean gets too warm across its surface, the Nino/Nina pump kicks in and removes the warm water from the Pacific, pumping it first west and thence poleward. I also wrote…

A Tropical Oddity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I wanted to bring you up to date on my current meanderings in the TAO buoy data that I investigated previously in a post called “Cloud Radiation Forcing in the TAO Dataset“. In my peripatetic inquiries into all things that are ooh, shiny, I ran across a curiosity. First, a…

Why El Niño and not the AMO?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach On another thread, a poster got me thinking about the common practice of using the El Nino 3.4 Index to remove some of the variability from the historical global average surface temperature record. The theory, as I have heard it propounded, is that the temperature of the Earth is “signal”,…

Observations on TOA Forcing vs Temperature

I recently wrote three posts (first, second, and third), regarding climate sensitivity. I wanted to compare my results to another dataset. Continued digging has led me to the CERES monthly global albedo dataset from the Terra satellite. It’s an outstanding set, in that it contains downwelling solar (shortwave) radiation (DSR), upwelling solar radiation (USR), and most…

Forcing or Feedback?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I read a Reviewer’s Comment on one of Richard Lindzen’s papers today, a paper about the tropics from 20°N to 20°S, and I came across this curiosity (emphasis mine): Lastly, the authors go through convoluted arguments between forcing and feed backs. For the authors’ analyses to be valid, clouds should…

A Longer Look at Climate Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach After I published my previous post, “An Observational Estimate of Climate Sensitivity“, a number of people objected that I was just looking at the average annual cycle. On a time scale of decades, they said, things are very different, and the climate sensitivity is much larger. So I decided to…

Under the radar – the NAS Report

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Under the radar, and un-noticed by many climate scientists, there was a recent study by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), commissioned by the US Government, regarding climate change. Here is the remit under which they were supposed to operate: Specifically, our charge was 1. To identify the principal premises…

Argo and the Ocean Temperature Maximum

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach It has been known for some time that the “Pacific Warm Pool”, the area just northeast of Australia, has a maximum temperature. It never gets much warmer than around 30 – 31°C. This has been borne out by the Argo floats. I discussed this in passing in “Jason and the…

The Moon is a Cold Mistress

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I’ve been considering the effect that temperature swings have on the average temperature of a planet. It comes up regarding the question of why the moon is so much colder than you’d expect. The albedo (reflectivity) of the moon is less than that of the Earth. You can see the…

Estimating Cloud Feedback From Observations

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I had an idea a couple days ago about how to estimate cloud feedback from observations, and it appears to have panned out well. You tell me. Figure 1. Month-to-month change in 5° gridcell actual temperature ∆T, versus gridcell change in net cloud forcing ∆F. Curved green lines are for…

Cloud Radiation Forcing in the TAO Dataset

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach This is the third in a series ( Part 1, Part 2 ) of occasional posts regarding my somewhat peripatetic analysis of the data from the TAO moored buoys in the Western Pacific. I’m doing construction work these days, and so in between pounding nails into the frame of a building I continue to…

TAO/TRITON TAKE TWO

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I wrote before of my investigations into the surface air temperature records of the TAO/TRITON buoys in the Pacific Ocean. To refresh your memory, here are the locations of the TAO/TRITON buoys. Figure 1. Locations of the TAO/TRITON buoys (pink squares). Each buoy is equipped with a sensor array measuring…

The Tao That Can Be Spoken …

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach As I mentioned in an earlier post,  I’ve started to look at the data from the TAO/TRITON buoy array in the Pacific Ocean. These are an array of moored buoys which collect hourly information on a variety of environmental variables. The results are quite interesting, because they relate directly to…

It’s Not About Feedback

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach The current climate paradigm believed by most scientists in the field can be likened to the movement of balls on a pool table. Figure 1. Pool balls on a level table. Response is directly proportional to applied force (double the force, double the distance). There are no “preferred” positions—every position…

Where Did I Put That Energy?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [UPDATE 2 AM Christmas morning, and of course Murphy is still alive and his Law is still in operation. I find a decimal point error in my calculations … grrr, I hates that, ocean energy flows shows at 1/10th size. Public exposure of error, the bane of any scientific endeavor.…

Which way to the feedback?

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There is an interesting new study by Lauer et al. entitled “The Impact of Global Warming on Marine Boundary Layer Clouds over the Eastern Pacific—A Regional Model Study” [hereinafter Lauer10]. Anthony Watts has discussed some early issues with the paper here. The Lauer10 study has been controversial because it found that…

Nature hates straight lines

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Yeah, I know Nature doesn’t have human emotions, give me a break. I’m aware it is unscientific and dare I call it atavistic and perhaps even socially unseemly to say Nature “hates” straight lines, but hey, it’s a headline, cut me some poetic slack. My point is, everyone is aware…

My Thanks and Comments for Dr. Walt Meier

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach First, I would like to thank Dr. Meier of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) for answering the questions I had posed (and had given my own personal answers) in “Trust and Mistrust”. I found his replies to be both temperate and well-reasoned. Also, I appreciate the positive…

Trust and Mistrust

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Following up on the excellent initiative of Dr. Judith Curry (see Judith’s post and my response ), I would like to see what I can do to rebuild the justifiably lost trust in climate science. I want to bring some clarity to terms which are used all the time but…

Another Look at Climate Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach OK, a quick pop quiz. The average temperature of the planet is about 14°C (57°F). If the earth had no atmosphere, and if it were a blackbody at the same distance from the sun, how much cooler would it be than at present? a) 33°C (59°F) cooler b) 20°C (36°F)…

Sense and Sensitivity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach This is an extension of the ideas I laid out as the Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis on WUWT. For those who have not read it, I’ll wait here while you go there and read it … (dum de dum de dum) … (makes himself a cup of coffee) … OK, welcome…

Message in the CLOUD for Warmists: The end is near?

You’ve probably all heard of Svensmark and the Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) to cloud cover modulation theory by now. Lot’s of warmists say it is “discredited”. However, CERN in Switzerland isn’t following that thinking, and after getting some encouraging results in the CLOUD06 experiment, they have funded a much larger and more comprehensive CLOUD09 experiment.…