Mann’s tree ring proxy train wreck

Eric Worrall writes: Mann’s thermometer spliced hockey stick has taken even more damage in the last few days, with Steve McIntyre helpfully providing reconstructions based on tree rings which demonstrate how, without the benefit of Mike’s scientifically dubious “nature trick”, the hockey stick simply disappears – tree rings demonstrably don’t correlate with temperature. According to…

Oh Mann! Paper demonstrates that tree-ring proxy temperature data is ‘seriously compromised’

Michael Mann won’t be happy about this. A new paper now in open review in the journal Climate of the Past suggests that “modern sample bias “has “seriously compromised” tree-ring temperature reconstructions, producing an “artificial positive signal [e.g. ‘hockey stick’] in the final chronology.” Basically, older trees grow slower, and that mimics the temperature signal…

Tree rings as a proxy for historical ENSO reconstruction

From the University of Hawai’i’s International Pacific Research Center at Mānoa, comes this proxy reconstruction that does some similar things the infamous hockey stick reconstruction, but doesn’t need to pull any statistical “tricks” to make the case. Our old friend the Bristlecone pine in the southwest USA is the test subject again. Like Mann et…

Briffa embraces tree ring uncertainty in new study, gives ‘message to the paleoclimate community’

From the UNIVERSITY OF OTAGO and the “one tree doesn’t work anymore” department: Uncertainties in tree-ring-based climate reconstructions probed Current approaches to reconstructing past climate by using tree-ring data need to be improved on so that they can better take uncertainty into account, new research led out of New Zealand’s University of Otago suggests. Tree…

Aproxymations

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at Bishop Hill, the Bish has an interesting thread about a new proxy reconstruction by Rob Wilson et al. entitled “Last millennium northern hemisphere summer temperatures from tree rings: Part I: The long term context” , hereinafter Wilson 2016. The paper and the associated data are available here. They…

A benefit of increased Carbon Dioxide: increased efficiency in tree growth, no “Mike’s Nature trick” needed

Gosh, whouda thunk it? There goes Mann’s hockey stick. No wonder he had to truncate all the data after 1960 and splice on the instrumental record. Of course, as I’ve said before, Mann ignored Liebigs Law to make the “big lies” called “Mikes Nature trick” and “hide the decline“. Trees simply can’t be just a…

Neukom’s Science By Proxy

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Over at Climate Audit, Steve McIntyre is engaged in the slow public defenestration of the latest multi-proxy extravapalooza, a gem of a paper yclept “Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium” by Neukom et al, hereinafter Neukom2014. Not content with simply creating a thousand-year temperature reconstruction for the Southern Hemisphere,…

This is what global cooling really looks like – new tree ring study shows 2000 years of cooling – previous studies underestimated temperatures of Roman and Medieval Warm Periods

Since Princeton’s Dr. Michael Oppenheimer conflated weather with climate last week, proclaiming a short lived heat wave as “This is what global warming really looks like” in a media interview, it seems only fair to show what real science rather than what he and Dr. Trenberth’s government funded advocacy looks like. I can’t wait to see…

Proxy Science and Proxy Pseudo-Science

Guest post by Pat Frank It’s become very clear that most published proxy thermometry since 1998 [1] is not at all science, and most thoroughly so because Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick revealed its foundation in ad hoc statistical numerology. Awhile back, Michael Tobis and I had a conversation here at WUWT about the non-science…

Mann: Trees aren’t behaving like I want them to – volcanoes to blame

From Penn State Tree rings may underestimate climate response to volcanic eruptions Some climate cooling caused by past volcanic eruptions may not be evident in tree-ring reconstructions of temperature change because large enough temperature drops lead to greatly shortened or even absent growing seasons, according to climate researchers, who compared tree-ring temperature reconstructions with model…

Internal dissent: “Personally, I think that the tree ring records should be able to reproduce the instrumental record”

Severinghaus and “Hide the Decline” By Steve McIntyre One of the very first contributions to realclimate was an FAQ from Jeff Severighaus on Dec 3, 2004. A year earlier, Severinghaus attempted (unsuccessfully) to get an explanation of the “divergence” problem from Mann and the rest of the Team. Severinghaus had become interested in the question following…

Shock news: trees grow better in a warmer climate with more carbon dioxide

The geniuses at Columbia University’s Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory have discovered Liebigs Law of the Minimum. The tree researcher exclaims: “I was expecting to see trees stressed from the warmer temperatures,”…“What we found was a surprise.” Trees on Tundra’s Border Are Growing Faster in a Hotter Climate Measuring Techniques Improve—But the Implications Are Not Certain…

Trees show no rainfall pattern in last century

I’ve always said that trees are a better proxy for rainfall than temperature. Just looking at how trees cluster around water sources can tell you this. From the Hockeyschtick: New paper shows no increase in precipitation over past 105 years, counter to global warming theory One of the central tenets of global warming theory is…

New paleoclimatology proxy – old science magazines

Old issues of Science, Nature, might be useful after all. From The Weizmann Institute of Science Some of the history preserved in old tomes and newspapers may be hiding in between the lines of print. A Weizmann Institute scientist has found that the paper in such collections contains a record of atmospheric conditions at the…

Pielke Senior on tree and thermometer divergence

by Dr Roger Pielke, Sr. With the McShane and Wyler paper examining and questioning the method, this look at the proxy data and its problems seems like a relevant issue to review. Comment On Tree Ring Proxy Data and Thermometer Type Surface Temperature Anomalies And Trends There was an interesting conclusion in a New York Times…

Woods Hole embraces the Medieval Warm Period – contradict Mann’s proxy data

“The more interesting and potentially controversial result is that our data indicate surface water temperatures during a part of the Medieval Warm Period that are similar to today’s…” “Although there are significant uncertainties with our own reconstruction, our work raises the idea that perhaps even the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstructions need to be looked at…

Making Holocene Spaghetti Sauce by Proxy

Holocene, historic and recent global temperatures from temperature proxies. Guest post by: Frank Lansner, civil engineer, biotechnology NOTE: Link to PDF of this article is HERE In the climate debate, the temperatures of the past are used to determine if the present temperatures are unique and alarming. Any viewpoint can be supported by choosing specific…

Bristlecone Pines: Treemometers or rain gauges ?

Over on Climate Audit, Steve McIntyre has been making a series of posts that have been putting the final nails in the coffin for Michael Mann’s MBH98 paper. This paper was responsible for the famous hockey stick graph which is based on tree ring data from Bristlecone Pine trees. Mann’s work implies them to be excellent proxy indicators of temperature,…

What is Next for Weather and Climate?

Guest Opinion: Dr. Tim Ball The Trump administration is well aware of the political use and scientific abuse of climate for a political agenda. I learned how aware while attending the Heritage Foundation Climate Conference on Thursday December 8 in Washington D.C. The majority of the public sense there is something wrong as reflected in…

The Bray (Hallstatt) Cycle

Guest essay by Andy May and Javier The evidence for a persistent irregular climate cycle with a period of 2400 ±200 years is strong. There is compelling evidence of a solar cycle of about the same length and phase; suggesting that the solar cycle might be causing the climate cycle. We will present a summary…

The Cosmic Problem With Rays

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Normal carbon has six neutrons and six protons, for an atomic weight of twelve. However, there is a slightly different form of carbon which has two extra neutrons. That form of carbon, called carbon-14 or “14C”, has an atomic weight of fourteen. It is known to be formed by the…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #240

The Week That Was: 2016-09-10 (September 10, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Treaty or No Treaty? According to reports, on September 3, U.S. President Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping signed the Paris Climate Agreement…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #239

The Week That Was: 2016-09-03 (September 3, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Did Obama Sign? What? There were reports speculating that U.S. President Obama and Chinese President Xi Junping would officially sign the Paris Climate…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #238

The Week That Was: 2016-08-27 (August 27, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project   THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) One More Step Towards the Sun: A team including Henrik Svensmark at the National Space Institute at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU Space) and…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #237

The Week That Was: 2016-08-20 (August 20, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Seeking a Common Ground: One of the challenges in preparing TWTW is reaching as broad a readership as possible with brief discussions of…

Zombie Science, the worst example of climate data torturing – ever: withdrawn Gergis 2012 becomes Gergis 2016

I missed this article from July, and it deserves wide distribution. Steve McIntyre writes (excerpts): In 2012, the then much ballyhoo-ed Australian temperature reconstruction of Gergis et al 2012 mysteriously disappeared from Journal of Climate after being criticized at Climate Audit. Now, more than four years later, a successor article has finally been published. Gergis…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #235

The Week That Was: 2016-08-06 (August 6, 2016) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Atmospheric Temperatures: Something unexpected happened in July. The rapid decline in atmospheric temperatures observed for the past few months stopped; in fact, they…

A Warm Period by Any Other Name – The Climatic Optimum

Hypsithermal, Altithermal, Holocene Optimum, Holocene Thermal Maximum, Holocene Megathermal, Anthropogene; Guest opinion: Dr. Tim Ball There is frustration and reward when an article appears on the same topic of an article you are completing – in this case the Holocene. Such was the case this week with Andy May’s article “A Review of temperature reconstructions.”…

A review of temperature reconstructions

Guest essay by Andy May In previous posts (here and here), I’ve compared historical events to the Alley and Kobashi GISP2 Central Greenland Temperature reconstructions for the past 4,000 years. Unfortunately, these two reconstructions are very different. Recently Steve McIntyre has suggested a third reconstruction by Bo Vinther. Vinther’s data can be found here. Unfortunately,…

Michael Mann: We still need Climate Models, Really

Guest essay by Eric Worrall Michael Mann, inventor of the “hockey stick”, wants to reassure us that we still need his climate research, even though a few weeks ago he said climate “tools” are “increasingly unnecessary”. How the Right Wing Denial Machine Distorts the Climate Change Discourse Several weeks ago, on June 17, I provided…

El Niño could drive intense season for Amazon fires

From NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and the “just watch, they’ll blame climate change anyway” department comes this forecast: The long-lasting effects of El Niño are projected to cause an intense fire season in the Amazon, according to the 2016 seasonal fire forecast from scientists at NASA and the University of California, Irvine. El Niño…

The Economic Impact of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Image licensed from Shutterstock Guest essay by Ken Gregory Energy Balance Climate Sensitivity The most important parameter in determining the economic impact of climate change is the sensitivity of the climate to greenhouse gas emissions. Climatologist Nicholas Lewis used an energy balance method to estimate the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) best estimate at 1.45 °C…