October 2013 Sunspots: Largest jump in Solar cycle 24 so far

Looks like a double peak for cycle 24 is forming As many WUWT readers have noted in comments, October 2013 has been significantly more active than the previous several months, and we have not seen this level of activity since October 2011. At right, is the sun today showing several sunspots of significant size. No…

Solar cycle update: sunspots down, Ap index way down

The NOAA SWPC monthly solar cycle update has been published here, and after a big spike last month, the sunspot count is down again. There’s an even bigger drop though in the Ap geomagnetic index, as seen and discussed below the Continue reading line. 10.7 centimeter radio flux was down slightly too.

NCAR spots the “transistor effect” – Small solar activity fluctuations amplify to larger climate influences

Some months back, I mentioned that I felt the sun-earth connection was much like a transistor. This new NCAR study suggests this may be the case where small solar variances are amplified in the earth atmosphere-ocean system. From EurekAlert Small fluctuations in solar activity, large influence on the climate Sun spot frequency has an unexpectedly…

UPDATED: New sunspots, but still solar cycle 23 spots

  Click for magnified view of the sun showing the most recent spot. Sunspot 987, 988, and now newly emerging 989 are shown above. With all being near the equator, they are still a cycle 23 spots. A cycle 24 spot would be at a much higher latitude. The most recent magnetogram shows them to have the magnetic…

Paintings, sunspots and frost fairs: Rethinking the Little Ice Age

The whole concept of the ‘Little Ice Age’ is ‘misleading’, as the changes were small-scale, seasonal and insignificant compared with present-day global warming, a group of solar and climate scientists argue. Explanations for the cooling to Earth’s climate, thought to have occurred between the 16th and 19th centuries, include low solar activity, volcanic eruptions, human…

Current Weak Solar Cycle Could Reduce Global Temperatures By Half A Degree

From ​the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) Sun’s impact on climate change quantified for first time For the first time, model calculations show a plausible way that fluctuations in solar activity could have a tangible impact on the climate. Studies funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation expect human-induced global warming to tail off slightly over…

Solar Slump: The Sun has been blank for two weeks straight

Over the weekend, we reviewed the state of the solar data for March 2017. Now, there’s a two week straight lack of sunspots, the longest stretch since 2010. Overview The sun is currently blank with no visible sunspots and this is the 14th straight day with a blank look which is the longest such stretch…

Solar Cycle Mystery Solved ?

Guest essay by David Archibald In the time before the current period of faith-based science, much good work was done on the role of the Sun in controlling climate. One of the best monographs from that time of innocence is Hoyt and Schatten’s The Role of the Sun in Climate Change, published by Oxford University…

Chinese Sunspots

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach [See also the new Update at the end of the post.] I see that there is a new paper from China causing a great disturbance in the solar force … as discussed here on WUWT, the claim is that the El Nino Modoki Index, which is an index of sea…

Solar physicist sees global cooling ahead

Via the GWPF: Recent research by Professor Valentina Zharkova (Northumbria University) and colleagues has shed new light on the inner workings of the Sun. If correct, this new discovery means that future solar cycles and variations in the Sun’s activity can be predicted more accurately. The research suggests that the next three solar cycles will…

Cycle 24 Solar activity slowly ramping up (this month)

After being in a slump last month, it seems that sunspots are starting to pick up again as this latest SDO image shows: This of course is just a minor blip, as the trend is downward, as we now are on the downslope of cycle 24 activity as this plot from Dr. Leif Svalgaard demonstrates.…

New insights into the solar magnetic dynamo

From NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER NASA: Understanding the magnetic sun The surface of the sun writhes and dances. Far from the still, whitish-yellow disk it appears to be from the ground, the sun sports twisting, towering loops and swirling cyclones that reach into the solar upper atmosphere, the million-degree corona – but these cannot be…

A Short Summary of Soon, Connolly and Connolly, 2015; “Re-evaluating the role of solar variability on Northern Hemisphere temperature trends since the 19th Century”

Guest essay by Andy May Soon, Connolly and Connolly (2015) is an excellent paper (pay walled, for the authors preprint, go here) that casts some doubt about two critical IPCC AR5 statements, quoted below: The IPCC, 2013 report page 16: “Equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely in the range 1.5°C to 4.5°C (high confidence), extremely unlikely…

Solar Cycle Update

Guest essay by David Archibald Two useful things we would like to know are the length of Solar Cycle 24 and the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25. Figure 1 below shows the NOAA version of Solar Cycle 24 progression with the 23/24 transition copied onto the end of their projection. This crude method (we don’t…

Sunspots and Norwegian Child Mortality

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In January there was a study published by The Royal Society entitled “Solar activity at birth predicted infant survival and women’s fertility in historical Norway”, available here. It claimed that in Norway in the 1700s and 1800s the solar activity at birth affected a child’s survival chances. As you might imagine, this…

Solar Cycle 24 Update for February 2015

Solar cycle 24 contines to be lower than the vast majority of predictions that came out during the waning years of solar cycle 23. David Archibald gives an update on the current progress of solar cycle 24, showing that it remains quite low, and under-performs almost all of the “official”predictions based on models and other…

Early Sunspots and Volcanoes

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach Well, as often happens I started out in one direction and then I got sidetractored … I wanted to respond to Michele Casati’s claim in the comments of my last post. His claim was that if we include the Maunder Minimum in the 1600’s, it’s clear that volcanoes with a…

Volcanoes and Sunspots

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I keep reading how sunspots are supposed to affect volcanoes. In the comments to my last post, Tides, Earthquakes, and Volcanoes, someone approvingly quoted a volcano researcher who had looked at eleven eruptions of a particular type and stated: …. Nine of the 11 events occurred during the solar inactive phase…

Partial solar eclipse shows off massive sunspot

From the National Science Foundation: Press Release 14-141 Spotlighting the sun October 24, 2014 Astronomers with the National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded National Optical Astronomy Observatory (NOAO) captured pictures not only of Thursday’s partial solar eclipse, but also of the “monster” sized active region or sun spot that has many comparing it to one of a…

Sunspots and Sea Surface Temperature

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I thought I was done with sunspots … but as the well-known climate scientist Michael Corleone once remarked, “Just when I thought I was out … they pull me back in”.  In this case Marcel Crok, the well-known Dutch climate writer, asked me if I’d seen the paper from Nir…

Cosmic Rays, Sunspots, and Beryllium

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In investigations of the past history of cosmic rays, the deposition rates (flux rates) of the beryllium isotope 10Be are often used as a proxy for the amount of cosmic rays. This is because 10Be is produced, inter alia, by cosmic rays in the atmosphere. Being a congenitally inquisitive type…

Solar Periodicity

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I was pointed to a 2010 post by Dr. Roy Spencer over at his always interesting blog. In it, he says that he can show a relationship between total solar irradiance (TSI) and the HadCRUT3 global surface temperature anomalies. TSI is the strength of the sun’s energy at a specified distance…

Usoskin Et Al. Discover A New Class of Sunspots

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach There’s a new post up by Usoskin et al. entitled “Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity”. To their credit, they’ve archived their data, it’s available here. Figure 1 shows their reconstructed decadal averages of sunspot numbers for the last three thousand years, from their paper: Figure 1. The results…

Sunny Spots Along the Parana River

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach In a comment on a recent post, I was pointed to a study making the following surprising claim: Here, we analyze the stream flow of one of the largest rivers in the world, the Parana ́ in southeastern South America. For the last century, we find a strong correlation with…

Sunspots and Sea Level

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I came across a curious graph and claim today in a peer-reviewed scientific paper. Here’s the graph relating sunspots and the change in sea level: And here is the claim about the graph: Sea level change and solar activity A stronger effect related to solar cycles is seen in Fig.…

New study claims low solar activity caused “the pause” in global temperature – but AGW will return!

This is on a tip from Dr. Leif Svalgaard, WUWT’s resident solar expert. It was just published in the journal Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, and is open access. I found this study’s conclusion a bit amusing, because there are numerous claims that solar activity (and the slight increase in TSI seen in the last 30…

September doldrums – solar slump continues

While many science related government agencies are shut down (NASA GISS is deemed ‘non-essential’ for example) some remain open due to statements like this: Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be…

Another solar to climate amplification mechanism found?

From the Hockey Schtick: Paper finds another amplification mechanism by which the Sun controls climate (video follows) A lecture by professor Hiroko Miyahara of the University of Tokyo provides additional support to the Svensmark theory of cosmoclimatology, finding that both solar geomagnetic activity and the polarity of geomagnetic activity have significant effects upon cosmic rays…