Marcott discovers that “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” while saying “it’s worse than we thought”

The title quote is from the late, great, Yogi Berra, with my sincerest apologies. From the UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN-MADISON and the “doom is the only outcome” department comes this “stunning” paper that you can’t read yet. (well, you can now). Long-term picture offers little solace on climate change MADISON, Wis. — Climate change projections that…

Marcott issues a FAQ on their paper

This is from Real Climate, who played the “he who must not be named” game again in not pointing out criticisms. Gavin dissapoints. UPDATE: McIntyre responded earlier today with The Marcott Filibuster Marcott et al have posted their long-promised FAQ at realclimate here. Without providing any links to or citation of Climate Audit, they now concede:…

Marcott’s uptick – a result of proxy sign inconsistency

Shades of upside down Tiljander. McIntyre is delving further into the Marcott proxy issue and it looks almost certain now there’s a statistical processing error (selection bias). Steve McIntyre writes: In the graphic below, I’ve plotted Marcott’s NHX reconstruction against an emulation (weighting by latitude and gridcell as described in script) using proxies with published…

Marcott’s proxies – 10% fail their own criteria for inclusion

Note: Steve McIntyre is also quite baffled by the Marcott et al paper, finding it currently unreproducible given the current information available. I’ve added some comments from him at the bottom of this post – Anthony Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach I don’t know what it is about proxies that makes normal scientists lose their…

Global versus Greenland Holocene Temperatures

By Andy May Last week, I posted a global temperature reconstruction based mostly on Marcott, et al. 2013 proxies. The post can be found here. In the comments on the Wattsupwiththat post there was considerable discussion about the difference between my Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (30°N to 60°N) and the GISP2 Richard Alley central Greenland temperature…

A Holocene Temperature Reconstruction Part 3: The NH and Arctic

By Andy May In the last post (see here) we reexamined the Marcott, et al. (2013) proxies for the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and the tropics. In this post, we will present two more reconstructions using their proxies, these are for the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (30°N to 60°N) and for the Arctic region (60°N to 90°N).…

A Holocene Temperature Reconstruction Part 1: the Antarctic

By Andy May The only recent attempt at a global Holocene temperature reconstruction available today is the one by Marcott, et al. (2013), the paper abstract can be viewed here. His reconstruction is shown in figure 1. Figure 1 The Y axis is a reconstructed global temperature anomaly from the 1961-1990 mean. “Years BP” are…

Breaking Hockey Sticks: Antarctic Ice Core Edition

Guest post by David Middleton Graphic: The relentless rise of carbon dioxide Ancient air bubbles trapped in ice enable us to step back in time and see what Earth’s atmosphere, and climate, were like in the distant past. They tell us that levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere are higher than they have been…

Claim: 0.7C / Century is Exceptional

Guest essay by Eric Worrall A new study published in SAGE claims that 0.7C / century warming is exceptional, because on average temperature change over the last 9500 years, after smoothing away short term wobbles, was 0.1C -0.01C / century. The Anthropocene equation Owen Gaffney, Will Steffen The dominant external forces influencing the rate of…

Solar variability and the Earth’s climate

Guest essay by Andy May According to Javier and the IPCC, total solar radiation output varies little, less than 0.1%. This is only 0.7 to 1.4 Watts/m2 compared to an IPCC anthropogenic effect estimate of 2.3 Watts/m2. They believe it has a small effect on the Earth’s climate. Others, like Abdussamatov, think solar output is…

Josh takes on XKCD’s ‘climate timeline’

At WUWT, we’ve gotten several tips about the XKCD cartoon that makes yet another “hockey stick” out of climate over recorded history. Nylo comments on WUWT Tips and Notes: Marcott 2013 is still alive! Last to resurrect it is XKCD Note the references vertically written on the right: You can view it here: http://xkcd.com/1732/ Two things…

Run Away! The Anthropocene Has Arrived!!!

Guest post by David Middleton (Featured image borrowed from http://www.hockeyministries.org/rwt-blog-52316)   Unfortunately this article is behind a pay wall. While some of the points in the abstract are reasonable, these two seem to be totally unsupported in any literature of which I am aware… An average global temperature increase of 0.6o to 0.9oC from 1900 to…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #189

The Week That Was: 2015-07-25 (July 25, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Limiting Power of the EPA? On his web site, 35-plus year veteran of the EPA Alan Carlin and author of Environmentalism Gone Mad,…

BEST practices step uncertainty levels in their climate data

Brandon Shollenberger writes in with this little gem: I thought you might be interested in a couple posts I wrote discussing some odd problems with the BEST temperature record.  You can find them here: http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/01/how-best-overestimates-its-certainty-part-2/ http://www.hi-izuru.org/wp_blog/2015/01/how-best-overestimates-its-certainty-part-1/ But I’ll give an overview.  BEST calculated its uncertainty levels by removing 1/8th of its data and rerunning its…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #163

The Week That Was: 2015-01-10 (January 10, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project THIS WEEK: By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP) Fooling Nature? Before the UN Climate Conference in Peru in December, several US government agencies, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)…

Is the Hockey Stick Graph Dead?

Novice warmist debunks Michael Mann Guest essay by David Hoffer For those of us who have followed the climate debate for a long time, the notion that Michael Mann’s Hockey Stick graph might be dead is counter intuitive. For us, the Hockey Stick graph is central to the debate. It’s appearance in one brilliant stroke swept…

The Catastrophic AGW Memeplex; a cultural creature

The hypothesis for a single, simple, scientific explanation underlying the entire complex social phenomenon of CAGW Guest essay by Andy West Whatever is happening in the great outdoors regarding actual climate, inside, truly inside, in the minds of men that is, overwhelming evidence indicates that Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming is a self-sustaining narrative that is…

Kenji gets mail – ‘Union of Concerned Scientists’ wants a one-sided Senate hearing panel, asks for money

Kenji got this in his inbox today (donation links redacted): ============================================================= UCS supporter— It’s bad enough that climate deniers get elected to Congress. But it gets much worse: some purveyors of disinformation sit on the House Science Committee. Rep. Lamar Smith, who chairs the committee, wrote a recent Washington Post op-ed replete with misleading information…

Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup

The Week That Was: 2013-06-15 (June 15, 2013) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project ################################################### Quote of the Week: For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled. Richard Feynman [The Quotes Page] ################################################### Number of the Week: 96% ################################################### THIS WEEK:…