The problems encountered by scientists trying to put a number on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) for CO2x2 are almost insurmountable because of this complexity and estimates, consequently, vary greatly.
Search Results for: climate sensitivity
New Journal of Climate Study Reduces Doubled CO2 Climate Sensitivity By 40%, To 0.72°C
From the NoTricksZone By Kenneth Richard Doubling the 2005 CO2 concentration (380 ppm) to 760 ppm only produces a globally-averaged 2.26 W/m² perturbation at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). This…
Climate Sensitivity
Pro: Climate Sensitivity is High Enough to Be Dangerous From The Climate Brief The sensitivity of the Earth’s climate to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration is a question that sits at the…
Spencer and Christy’s new climate sensitivity paper has been published – and its LOWER.
From Dr. Roy Spencer: If we assume ALL *observed* warming of the deep oceans and land since 1970 has been due to humans, we get an effective climate sensitivity to…
The Mysterious AR6 ECS, Part 3, What is Climate Sensitivity?
By Andy May Christian Freuer has translated this post to German here. In part one we discussed various estimates of climate sensitivity (ECS, TCR, and observation-based values) and what they…
Climate Sensitivity from 1970-2021 Warming Estimates
.. the observational data suggest lower climate sensitivities (ECS) than promoted by the IPCC with a central estimate of +2.09 deg C. for the global average. This is at the…
Important New Paper Challenges IPCC’s Claims about Climate Sensitivity
Official IPCC estimates of future global warming may be overstated
New Study: Modelers Got Aerosols All Wrong…CO2 Climate Sensitivity Likely Another 0.4°C Overstated!
From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT By P Gosselin on 26. November 2021 Die kalte Sonne reports on a new aerosol study by Liu et al. The results are a major blow to…
Climate Sensitivity to CO2, what do we know? Part 2.
By Andy May In Part 1, we introduced the concepts of climate sensitivity to CO2, often called ECS or TCR. The IPCC prefers a TCR of about 1.8°C/2xCO2 (IPCC, 2013,…
Climate Sensitivity to CO2, what do we know? Part 1.
The first version of this post had an error in Figure 1. It has been fixed along with the associated text (7/5/2021). By Andy May The IPCC claims, in their…
High end of climate sensitivity in new climate models seen as less plausible
Researchers at Princeton University and the University of Miami reported that newer models with a high “climate sensitivity” — meaning they predict much greater global warming from the same levels…
Climate Sensitivity Estimates: Declining or Not?
Guest “climate sensitivity explaining by David Middleton ECS: Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (AKA equilibrium sensitivity) TCR: Transient Climate Response (AKA transient sensitivity) AKA: Also Known As Here’s how the folks a…
An estimate of Climate Sensitivity
This arithmetic shows that Man-made additions of CO2 to the atmosphere can only have very marginal further temperature effect into next century and beyond.
New paper suggests historical period estimates of climate sensitivity are not biased low by unusual variability in sea surface temperature patterns
An important new paper by Thorsten Mauritsen, Associate Professor at Stockholm University[i] and myself has just been accepted for publication (Lewis and Mauritsen 2020)[ii]. Its abstract reads:
+7C Global Warming by 2100: CMIP6 Cranks Up the Climate Sensitivity Estimate for COP26
Guest essay by Eric Worrall Even worse than we thought ™ – global warming estimates have been raised, just in time for next year’s COP26 conference. But one of high…
Climate sensitivity in light of the latest energy imbalance evidence
Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on January 10, 2020 by curryja | by Frank Bosse Equilibrium climate sensitivity computed from the latest energy imbalance data. The Earth…
How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2
Thought Experiment; Guest post by Bob Irvine How Lord Monckton’s Conundrum can be used to calculate maximum climate sensitivity to CO2. What follows is a discussion only. Introduction; The IPCC…
Gregory et al 2019: Unsound claims about bias in climate feedback and climate sensitivity estimation
Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry’s Climate Etc. Posted on October 18, 2019 by niclewis | By Nic Lewis The recently published open-access paper “How accurately can the climate sensitivity to…
What’s the worst case? Climate sensitivity
Posted on April 1, 2019 by curryja | Reposted from Climate Etc. by Judith Curry Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible? For background, see these previous…
Warming patterns are unlikely to explain low historical estimates of climate sensitivity
By Nic Lewis Plain language summary A new paper led by a UK Met Office scientist claims that accounting for the difference in the spatial pattern of surface temperature change…
Why does climate sensitivity increase over time in models? A look at two possibilities
Guest analysis by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador Note: if the terms used in this article seem confusing, check out the previous one. Introduction It’s well known that climate models show increasing sensitivity…
It shouldn’t take hundreds of years to estimate climate sensitivity
Guest essay by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador Summary: Climate models with different sensitivities reproduce the historical temperature record just as well (or badly) An interpretation could be the historical temperature record…
Why Dessler et al.’s critique of energy-budget climate sensitivity estimation is mistaken
By Nic Lewis Plain language summary A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate…
New data imply lower climate sensitivity, thus slower global warming
New paper by Nic Lewis and Judith Curry suggests future warming would be a third to nearly half of what the IPCC claims. A paper just published by the Journal…
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