Soon/Connollys: Challenges of the detection and attribution of global warming | Tom Nelson Pod #153

Tom Nelson

Dr. Willie Soon, an astrophysicist and geoscientist, is a leading authority on the relationship between solar phenomena and global climate. In this 32+ years of singular pursuit, he seeks to understand the Sun-Earth relations in terms of not only meteorology and climate, but also in terms of orbital dynamics of Sun-Earth-other planets interactions, magmatic (volcanoes) and tectonic (earthquakes) activities. His discoveries challenge computer modelers and advocates who consistently underestimate solar influences on cloud formation, ocean currents, and wind that cause climate to change. He has faced and risen above unethical and often libelous attacks on his research and his character, becoming one of the world’s most respected and influential voices for climate realism. In 2018, he founded the Center for Environmental Research and Earth Sciences ( in order to tackle a wider range of issues and topics without fears nor prejudices.

Dr. Michael Connolly is an independent scientist, based in Ireland.

Lecturer and tutor at third level in the fields of physics, chemistry, electronic engineering, computer science, mathematics, and statistics.

I qualified as a plasterer in 1969, as an electrician in 1970 and have experience in all building trades. In 1975, I built our first house entirely on my own. The last time this house was sold it went for approx. $1 million. Since then, I have designed and built hundreds of buildings and houses.

About Ronan Connolly:
I am an independent scientist, environmentalist and writer.
My primary university degree was in Chemistry, and my PhD in computational chemistry/polymer physics. However, in 2004, I shifted to environmentalism, and began working with my father, Dr. Michael Connolly, on developing sustainable methods of fish-farming, aquaponics and waste-water treatment. We also carried out research into developing low-cost heat exchanger systems and new energy efficient building materials and techniques.

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Roy Clark
September 29, 2023 12:59 am

Instead of just considering the temperature record and the solar flux, there is another part to the attribution argument: an infrared radiative forcing produced by an increase in greenhouse gas concentration does not change the energy balance of the earth, nor can it produce a measurable change in surface temperature. The climate models (CMIP ensembles) are fraudulent by definition before the first line of code is even written. There is no equilibrium average climate that can be perturbed by an increase in greenhouse gas concentration. 
A radiative transfer analysis provides a ‘snapshot’ of the IR radiation field for the conditions – temperature and species concentration profiles – specified in the calculation. When the atmospheric CO2 concentration is increased, there is a slight decrease in the long wave IR (LWIR) flux emitted to space at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) within the spectral region of the CO2 emission bands [Wijngaarden and Happer, 2022]. The IPCC calls a change in flux at the top of the atmosphere a radiative forcing. This also includes other ‘forcings’ such as aerosols that reflect sunlight and increase the solar flux returned to space. 
The IPCC then claims that the greenhouse gas radiative forcing changes the energy balance of the earth and that the surface temperature ‘adjusts’ – increases – to restore the energy balance at TOA. In reality the climate models are simply tuned to match global temperature record using a contrived set of radiative forcings and an equally contrived set of ‘feedbacks’ that change the magnitude of the forcings. The forcings are then split into ‘anthropogenic’ and ‘natural’ components and used to create the natural baseline and a ‘human caused’ warming. A vague statistical argument about changes in the ‘tails’ of the normal (Gaussian) distribution of the temperature is then used to claim human causes for every imaginable increase in intensity and frequency of ‘extreme weather events’ 
The first use of radiative forcings to match the temperature record was by Hansen’s group in 1981 (H81) see figure 5. There are about 9 fundamental scientific errors in this paper (see my Ventura Photonics Post VPCP 17). The anthropogenic attribution trick started with the third IPCC climate assessment (TAR) in 2001 (see figures SPM4, SPM3 and fig. 2.32). The original work was done by a group at the UK Hadley Center, see papers by Stott 2000 and Tett 2000. This has now morphed into an annual supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society “Explaining Extreme Events of [year] from a Climate Perspective” [Herring et al, 2022] (and prior years). Most of the papers published here need to be retracted. The history of radiative forcing was reviewed by Ramaswamy et al, 2019. 
The fundamental issue is the use of the equilibrium assumption. This started with Arrhenius in 1896. His model was just an equilibrium air column with a single air temperature. The model used a fixed average solar flux and a partially reflective black body surface with zero heat capacity. Convection, evaporation and subsurface transport were ignored. When the CO2 concentration was increased, the model assumptions had to create global warming as a mathematical artifact in the calculation. This was copied by Manabe and Wetherald in 1967. They added a 9 or 18 layer radiative transfer calculation and a fixed relative humidity distribution. This created a ‘water vapor feedback’ that amplified the initial CO2 artifact. This model was copied by Hansen et al in 1976 where they added more minor greenhouse species (H76). More bells and whistles were added in H81. The rest of the climate modelers have copied this approach. Little has changed in 40 years. 
In order to move past the climate modeling fraud it is necessary to restore the time dependence to the radiative transfer calculation. The atmospheric LWIR flux is a cooling flux that is emitted from many different levels in the atmosphere. It should not be used to calculate an effective emission temperature. The radiative transfer calculation has to be extended to include the rate of LWIR cooling at each level. The net LWIR flux has to be divided by the local heat capacity. This is illustrated in Figure 1. In the troposphere at low to mid latitudes the cooling rate is in the -2.0 to -2.5 °C per day range [Feldman et al, 2008]. When the CO2 concentration is doubled, there is a slight warming or decrease in the cooling rate of up to +0.08 °C per day [Iacono et al, 2008]. This is fully coupled to the turbulent convection in the troposphere. Any additional heat released in the troposphere is just reradiated to space by wideband LWIR emission. It does not change the energy balance of the earth. At a lapse rate of -6.5 °C per kilometer, a temperature increase of +0.08 °C is produced by a decrease in altitude of 12 meters. This is equivalent to riding an elevator down four floors. 
In addition to the small decrease in LWIR flux at TOA produced by a CO2 doubling, there is also a similar small increase in the downward LWIR flux emitted to the surface from the lower troposphere. Over the oceans, the penetration depth of the LWIR flux into the surface is less than 100 micron (0.004 inches). Here it is fully coupled to the much larger and more variable wind driven evaporation or latent heat flux. Any change in ocean temperature produced by the LWIR flux from a CO2 doubling is too small to measure. Over land, all of the flux terms are absorbed by a thin surface layer. Almost all of the absorbed solar flux is dissipated by a combination of net LWIR emission and moist convection within the same diurnal cycle that it is absorbed. The surface temperature is reset each day by the local weather system passing through. Any temperature increase produced by the additional LWIR flux from an increase in CO2 concentration is too small to measure in the normal daily and seasonal surface temperature variations. There can be no climate sensitivity to CO2. For more details, see my posts VPCP 25 and VPCP 26 and the book Finding Simplicity in a Complex World, Clark and Rörsch, 2023.
Figure 1: a) the spectrally resolved LWIR emission to space for 0, 400 and 800 ppm CO2 concentrations, b) the CO2 emission band on an enlarged scale, c) the difference between the 800 and 400 ppm CO2 emission, e) the total and band resolved cooling rates vs. altitude for a) and e) the changes in the rate of cooling for a CO2 doubling from 287 to 574 ppm. Figures a), b), c) adapted from Wijngaarden and Happer, 2022, d) from Feldman et al, 2008 and e) from Iacono et al, 2008.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Roy Clark
September 29, 2023 4:53 pm

I love your music, Roy, but your comment is kinda long.

September 29, 2023 3:12 am

“Question with no answer is better than answers with no questions”

Reply to  Dandersan
September 29, 2023 3:26 am

Like the effort You are doing.
The graphs over temperature changes from 1850 to now and the suns variability is a blow to IPCCs creditability!

Reply to  Dandersan
September 29, 2023 11:52 am

1850 was the end of the Little Ice Age, so it was still pretty cold.

Joseph Zorzin
September 29, 2023 4:36 am

I watch most of Tom Nelson’s videos because he wastes no time- the guest introduces themselves and jumps right in.

Doug S
September 29, 2023 6:15 am

Yep, same here Joseph. Tom Nelson has got the right formula. I really enjoy listening to Dr. Soon and especially like when he says “we don’t know”. When is the last time you’ve heard a government funded scientist say those three words?

September 29, 2023 11:50 am

This recent study shows that cold weather we have every year causes about 4.6 million deaths a year mainly through increased strokes and heart attacks, compared with about 500,000 deaths a year from hot weather.
‘Global, regional and national burden of mortality associated with nonoptimal ambient temperatures from 2000 to 2019: a three-stage modelling study’

What is even the point of trying to keep the Earth cold when millions more people are dying from cold-related causes compared to heat-related causes each year?

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