By David Wojick
Dominion Energy, the big Virginia utility, has finally admitted that net zero may not work. I have been writing about Dominion, which operates under the net zero Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA), for awhile now. VCEA requires Dominion to shut down all gas, oil and coal fired power by 2045.
My point has been that VCEA cannot be done. Now Dominion has met me half way, saying in their new Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) that maybe it cannot be done. So far so good.
In their new, 2022 IRP the VCEA compliance plan is called Plan D. Here is how Dominion puts it in the Executive Summary:
“Plan D results in the Company purchasing 5,000 MW of capacity in 2045 and beyond, raising concerns about system reliability and energy independence, including over-reliance on out-of-state capacity to meet customer needs. Over time as more renewable energy and energy storage resources are added to the system, the Company will learn if Plan D can maintain a reliable system.”
To begin with, note that they hope to buy a whopping 5,000 MW of juice when things get tight with the renewables they are forced to use. This is truly funny because in their 2021 IRP they specifically said that buying juice was a bad plan because every nearby utility is planning on doing the same thing. Thus there will be no sellers of said juice. Now they plan on it!
It gets worse. As I have reported before, Dominion’s VCEA plans have nowhere near the battery storage required to make the planned renewables reliable. See my “Dominion’s VCEA Compliance Plan is Disastrously Unreliable” at
http://www.cfact.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/VCEA-Reliability-Research-Report.pdf
Plan D plays the standard trick of reporting battery storage in MW, which is designed to make batteries look like generators. MW is actually the discharge capacity, not the storage capacity. Imagine buying orange juice this way. Tropicana has twice as big a spout as Minute Maid but that is not what you are buying. You buy the juice not the pour speed.
So Plan D has roughly 27,000 MW of solar but just 9,000 MW of storage. Assuming standard 4 hour batteries this gives just 36,000 MWh of storage capacity. That stores the solar for just over 1.3 hours, which does not even come close to getting you through the night. Cloudy days? Forget about it.
So Dominion’s VCEA compliance plan assumes huge amounts of juice coming from somewhere else, which it won’t, plus battery storage that won’t get you through the night. Saying this “might not work” is laughable, but it is a big step up from ignoring the fact that it will not work, which is what all of America’s big utilities have been doing.
Keep in mind that the big utilities are making a fortune off of the bogus net zero game. They make a guaranteed profit on every approved dollar they spend on mandated renewables that do not work reliably.
The big utilities have zero incentive for blowing the whistle on net zero, but at least Dominion has said it might not work. But of course their ever so weak “time will tell” warning lets them keep on spending untold billions on unworkable renewables.
Speaking of spending billions there is another trick worth noting in the IRP. Another standard con called discounting future cost to present value.
Dominion says that VCEA compliant Plan D will cost just over 88 billion dollars. That is $88,000,000,000. A lot of money, right? Well not compared to the actual cost.
The way this works is you first figure a future cost, say what folks will pay in 2040. Then you do what amounts to reverse compound interest, taking a percentage off every year from then (2040) until the present (in this case 2022). This is the discounted value.
Obviously the discounted value is a lot less than what Dominion’s customers will actually have to pay when 2040 rolls around. What that amount is we are not told. But the total cost of Dominion’s VCEA compliance is likely to be more like 200 to 400 billion dollars, not a “mere” 88 billion.
The good news is that Dominion finally admits that the net zero VCEA might not work. The bad news is Dominion Energy will spend hundreds of billions of ratepayer’s money before the inevitable failure of VCEA becomes obvious.
Author
David Wojick, Ph.D. is an independent analyst working at the intersection of science, technology and policy. For origins see http://www.stemed.info/engineer_tackles_confusion.html
For over 100 prior articles for CFACT see http://www.cfact.org/author/david-wojick-ph-d/
Available for confidential research and consulting.
I found this sentence interesting
“ignoring the fact that it will not work, which is what all of America’s big utilities have been doing.”
I very much suspect that the engineers have been privately saying this for a while – the braver ones perhaps even telling the VPs.
I and many others have been saying for years that the carbon-free economy can’t work because of the laws of physics and thermodynamics. We are seeing increasing evidence that recognition of this is starting to happen – Toyota CEO a few months ago, relabelling nuclear as “green” and recently the change by the EU to their ICE ban.
None of the zealots are going to put their hands up and admit they were wrong…but , little by little, the policy makers will row-back on their commitments.
Could I interest you in a carbon free banana? It’s for the republic.
for equity and justice and it’ll help save the planet and only cost you $1,000
I dunno but I will take a glass of carbon free water
In the mornings, I like my carbon free water served hot, with the addition of some carbon-based organic molecules coaxed from the ground beans of the coffee shrub.
I think it is the CO2 that the shrub draws from the atmosphere that really makes the extract of the beans so tasty!
The CO2 produced in the “Roasting” process also imparts a great flavor
I like the smell of carbon-free water in the morning. It smells like…victory. LOL
It starts with a banana, then progresses with excess carbon-based human, fauna, and flora lives. Some regimes practice State’s Choice, while others delegate it through religious/ethical sanction to her Choice. Look for the Sanctuary State label where human rites are not only legal but celebrated in parades. Pride and prejudice before the Arab, Slavic, Semitic, American, Sino, etc. Spring.
Bananas are radioactive. They each have ~ 5 – 7 atoms of the radioactive isotopes of potassium. Look up ‘banana equivalent dose’.
I eat several every week. Yum…
The climate alarmists have been using the scale of “Hiroshimas” to measure heat. However, I am sure that it can also be utilized as a measure of radiation.
How many radioactive banana peels does it require to make one Hiroshima?
An economist friend once told me “if it can’t be done, it won’t be done”. Our problem is that a hell of a lot of cost and damage will be incurred by people who refuse to recognize that it can’t be done.
And here’s us thinking you only needed a Plan B! 🙂
Their Plan D is more like a Plan F
“Plan D” sounds like something out of some Amt in the Third Reich.
So it now seems that some people are scaling back on their faith in Net Zero, but not being prepared to clearly state the truth while continuing to spend money they do not have to support the unsupportable. Since they ALL seem to be tarred with the same brush, what will be the consequence when ALL are compelled to face the truth, and there are not enough truthful people in the industry to keep things going? Very tough times ahead for all of those uncourageous peole who should have spoken up years ago!
Close. Dominion is spending money they do have, from customers and the government.
The totally alarming issue in the report is that utility companies plan “B” (or C, D, E, and finally arriving at F) is to buy electrical energy from each other. This unworkable scheme is just not crazy or unethical, it probably is illegal, as $billions are spent that is either tax money or regulated utility customer’s money. But this money does not vaporize, where does it go?
But the out of state generation that is sold to neighboring states can be carbon intensive. As it was produced out of state the state using it can be carbon Net Zero. Further, as it isn’t being used in the state it is being produced in, it doesn’t count against that states Net Zero carbon budget either.
It’s all a Shell Game
Great approach! Maryland, for example, could build as many coal and gas power plants as needed to power Virginia but use none of it in Maryland, and Virginia could do the same re Maryland’s needs. Both have the power they need, and both are “carbon net zero.” Problem solved.
Yep, I’m sure they will find a way to pull an ENRON around the Nut Zero Fiasco
Well they have to burn the money to generate the electricity 🙂
Nut-Zero.Strikes again
Filed under “No shit, Sherlock.”
Which is what I’d react with if presented with this timid statement in some public hearing, along with:
“Are you really dumb enough to think that “net zero” has a snowballs chance in hell of “working?”
And
“With the plan of every utility pursuing it being g to “buy power from elsewhere” when the wind and Sun aren’t providing what’s needed?!”
And
“Are you really THAT STUPID?!”
Its laughable. Everyone will buy ‘lectricity from everyone else,and create a huge circle of darkness and cold..lol!!
Circle (jerk) of Darkness?
but will save the planet! /sarc
Maybe they can create a Multi-Level-Marketing company for whole electricity?
““Are you really THAT STUPID?!””
I don’t think they are stupid, they are just trying to put off the inevitable as long as possible, in order to benefit financially. Then, when everything crashes and burns, they’ll feign surprise. Oopps! Sorry about that!
It’s hard to understand why anyone would be surprised by this.
Net zero is a zero.
Zero truth,
Zero science,
Zero logic,
Zero affordability,
Zero juice,
Zero liberty, and, ultimately,
Zero people.
Net zero is both achievable and affordable. Walk through your home and flip every switch to OFF. Congratulations!
Then report success on your phone, before the battery runs out.
The last sentence is the killer. How much more of people’s money will be wasted on this bullshit before they learn what we know – it won’t work. The UK government is going in ‘invest’ – government-speak for piss up the wall – £20bn of taxpayer cash on the great unicorn of ‘carbon capture & storage’ at a time when the tax burden is the highest in generations. Because of the ignorants that advise our morons, a key part of the UK Nut Job Zero plan requires CCS to work.
I up-voted you for clearly translating the government use of the word “invest”.
They never subsidise; they never payroll, and they never bail out. They certainly never speculate. They only ever invest and investing is good. Investing means they will get all their money back and then some. You’d be an idiot not to see that.
Ruzzia and China are laughing at the west committing suicide…..destroying a power system ….for nothing.
Yes, but be fair: the important people are making lots of money!
“The big utilities have zero incentive for blowing the whistle on net zero, but at least Dominion has said it might not work.”
Well, dam it, it’s about time more big utilities act responsible and blow that whistle. Maybe being a “utility” means they get some protection from bankruptcy in case this nut zero thing doesn’t work out? Maybe it’s time to end the utility thing for power companies- so they’ll fear the consequences of stupid policies.
“Utilities” as entities have a benefit though. They defray direct costs over a much broader customer base. Municipalities (the other option) are limited in customer base when/if catastrophic expenditures occur.
For example. The Paradise Fire would have occurred whether Utility Owned or Municipal owned but recovery would have been placed on a nonexistent customer base for reconstruction costs. In all likelihood Paradise would have been lost and never rebuilt. If it had been rebuilt, the limited customer base would have only allowed for OH like for like instead of safer Undergrounding like has happened.
Having a much broader customer base is the power of the Utility over the Municipality
Joseph, electrical utility service is a natural monopoly (people should read up on such things). For decades I (former electric utility CEO/GM) have been pointing out that cutting out a portion of that natural monopoly (generation) and creating a false, politicized “market” will (has) proven to be a disaster for the hapless ratepayer. The huge incentives (simply stated) for politicians (donations & votes), bureaucrats (job security & ideology), utility executives (bigger pay) and crony capitalist generators (obvious) is to spend more ratepayer and taxpayer monies.
Everybody needs to recognize that those incentives will remain in place right up to the collapse of the electric systems. The hope is that early, relatively localized collapses will be recognized for what they are. The danger is that people and entities benefiting from the incentives will be able to blame others for the failures.
note that they hope to buy a whopping 5,000 MW of juice when things get tight with the renewables they are forced to use. This is truly funny because in their 2021 IRP they specifically said that buying juice was a bad plan because every nearby utility is planning on doing the same thing.
It’s called the Fallacy of Composition and it’s Econ101. No matter as the climate changers are going to disprove a fundamental axiom of engineering that you can’t build a reliable system from unreliable componentry by simply having lots of unreliable componentry. They’re big on averages until you ask them what the average temperature should be.
Better get in line early in the queue for imported Hydro Quebec power. That’s the unofficial backstop for policy fail and dear leaders know it.
What? James Bay electricity all the way to Virginia?? I think New York City is going to grab it all first. 1250 MW at 400 kV DC under Lake Champlain and down the Hudson River. Don’t drop your boat anchor in the wrong place.
I worked for a an electric utility and management seemed unconcerned about costs and feasibility provided the regulators allowed costs to be passed on to the consumer. The more sensible executives cared about public perception because unreliable service leads to consumers demanding more regulation, more oversight and more scrutiny of spending.
+42X42^42 from somebody that’s been there. Although expenses that cannot be added to the ROR rate-base drive up rates to consumers that have no corresponding profit.
My experience is that utility ‘management’ and regulators have always been very cognizant of the impacts of costs and investment returns on customer bills and system reliability. What’s relatively new is the greater extent to which progressive regulators have been larding ‘green’ surcharges into rates, meaning that basic system maintenance and/or investment has to give way to minimize the impact on customer bills. Ironically, it’s usually management, not the regulators, that takes the fall when ratepayers complain about both higher rates and lower reliability.
‘They make a guaranteed profit on every approved dollar they spend on mandated renewables that do not work reliably.’
David, are the renewable sources actually in rate base, or are Dominion and other load serving entities just mandated to purchase renewable energy?
As a Dominion customer, my typical bill has about ten riders on the Generation and Distribution costs, most of which, if not all, are related to net-zero.
Which are only going to get larger unless the regulators that are driving this crap are replaced.
I’m reminded of Ricky Ricardo from the I Love Lucy show: ” somebody’s got lot of splaining to do” followed by “I think you need to see a sichiatrist ”.
That was a good show. My childhood was blessed with shows like this.
I wouldn’t want to be a kid today growing up with all the trash that is thrown at them 24 hours a day in the media. Let’s hope they have good parents who can explain the insanity to them.
Article says:”… Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA)..l”
So why doesn’t Youngkin get rid of it? Or at least start telling folks how bad of idea it is.
The Democrats that passed it control the state Senate, so it can’t be repealed. He has pushed for reevaluating the VCES this year, and on a regular interval afterward. With DC dominating the media for half the state, there’s a high chance if he pushes too hard Democrats will regain full control, so that would put us farther away from repealing it.
Doh!
Nice report, we are making progress. Here is the most important thing in your report.
“Plan D plays the standard trick of reporting battery storage in MW, which is designed to make batteries look like generators. MW is actually the discharge capacity, not the storage capacity. Imagine buying orange juice this way. Tropicana has twice as big a spout as Minute Maid but that is not what you are buying. You buy the juice not the pour speed.”
“Plan D plays the standard trick of reporting battery storage in MW, which is designed to make batteries look like generators. MW is actually the discharge capacity, not the storage capacity. Imagine buying orange juice this way. Tropicana has twice as big a spout as Minute Maid but that is not what you are buying. You buy the juice not the pour speed.”
We need lots more analogies like this, I could never really wrap my head around the difference between MW and MWH.
“over-reliance on out-of-state capacity”
The economic reward for sourcing out-of-state capacity would create a practical example of prisoner’s dilema for undergrad classes everywhere.
Also: A game of chicken between regulators and the last rogue to supply DC?
“but it is a big step up from ignoring the fact that it will not work”
That’s the spirit! If nothing else works, a total pigheaded unwillingness to look facts in the face will see us through 🙂
(Credit to Bad Obsession Motorsport for the brilliantly crafted phrase)
As a retired EE who spent 33 years in and around generating plants, I, too, am surprised that there hasn’t been pushback from utilities on net-zero BS. While they have to know this can’t work with current resources, the only answer I have is that utilities are so heavily regulated that they’re afraid to push back against their “masters,” the including ignorant politicians at all levels and elected public service commissions. On top of that, “experts” and “academics” from the UN down to local universities produce studies claiming this is all possible . . . easy peasy.
I’m old and won’t live long enough to see net zero fail catastrophically, but I know who’ll get the blame–utilities and engineers who didn’t warn effectively that systems built on wind, solar and batteries are doomed to failure.
Dominion is one of two utilities in the state specifically targeted by VCEA, both being required to move to net-zero and forced to accept net metering at retail rates. The state is allowing them to add any costs directly to customers’ bills and providing financial help with the construction.
Out of fear to what this will do to electricity rates, I took the Elon Musk approach and put the largest solar array they would allow without restrictions in my back yard. As a bonus, Pennsylvania utilities are paying indulgences for the solar credits. To any rational voter in VA or PA, I apologize. With all the incentives, my expenses will be paid back in 8 1/2 years at current rates. Without government interference, payback would take 26 years at the rates I was paying in 2018 to the utility where I was living just 10 miles away.