World Energy Data Confirms Fossil Fuels Will Dominate Future Global Energy Use

Guest essay by Larry Hamlin

The government leaders of the U.S., EU and UK can’t seem to bring themselves to acknowledge that global energy outcomes regarding the world’s future energy growth, fuel use as well as emissions growth is out of their control and has been for years.

The comprehensive year 2022 BP world energy statistical review report data shows that China’s energy use alone in year 2021 exceeds the energy use of the U.S., EU and UK combined and represents 26.49% of all global energy use which is by far the largest of any global nation. 

China has achieved this level of energy consumption by hugely increasing its use of coal fuel from 2005 to 2021 by over 30 exajoules with that increase alone in year 2021 energy use being 12.6% greater than the entire world’s energy provided by wind and solar in 2021. China’s growth in coal energy is larger than their increased use of both petroleum and natural gas combined during this same period.

Additionally, the non-OECD (which includes China) nations growth in yearly coal energy use between 2005 and 2021 increased by 48.32 exajoules with this increased 2021 coal energy being 77% larger than the entire world’s energy provided by wind and solar in that year.

China’s coal fuel use alone in 2021 is more than 9.3 times greater than its use of wind and solar in that year with its total fossil fuel use being more than 14 times larger than its wind and solar energy.

Biden’s Secretary of Energy seems to be completely oblivious to China’s and the non-OECD nations colossal energy use and emissions that are largely driven by its globally dominate and huge use of coal fuel as described here.             

The tables and data provided below reflect year 2021 world energy statistical analysis data from the BP year 2022 Report

Table 1 below provides data listed in rank order of world region largest percent of total global energy use with the percent of each world regions energy use obtained from both wind and solar as listed in the BP Statistical Analysis Report of 2022. 

Wind and solar are the energy resources most associated with alleged zero CO2 emissions but with significant toxic material waste disposal problems that are ignored by advocates as, for example, described here. Wind and solar represent about 70% of total global renewable energy use with biomass being most of the remainder.

Additionally, wind and solar resources require the use of massive emissions producing quantities of materials and increased mining as well as significant manufacturing emissions because of their very low energy density compared to fossil fuels resources.

California is included in these tables because, incredibly, the state’s politicians foolishly operate under the delusion that the state plays some grand role in “fighting global climate change” which is a complete farce as indicated by the numbers in this and other tables in this essay. 

California’s total energy use data is obtained for year 2020 (the latest year available) from the EIA data source here.

Wind and Solar energy are alleged as zero emissions energy resources that will save mankind from the climate alarmists ridiculous and science unsupported claim of a “climate emergency”.

Wind and solar provided only 4.58% of total global energy use in year 2021 after decades of global government mandated use of these costly and unreliable energy resources including the use of trillions of dollars in huge global government driven subsidies. Germany alone has spent at least $800 billion euros  on its failed green energy transition campaign. 

The dominant global energy use non-OECD nations (representing 61.37% of total year 2021 global energy use) utilized less wind and solar energy (only 13.14 exajoules) compared to the OECD nations (representing only 38.63% of total year 2021 global total energy) with wind and solar use at just 14.13 exajoules.

The above highlighted huge disparity in non-OECD and OECD percent of total global energy will be addressed again later in this essay because it is a crucial global energy outcome that is concealed and ignored by renewable energy advocates and climate alarmists. 

These advocates and alarmists don’t want the public to be aware of the futility and incompetence of OECD absurd energy policy schemes trying to decrease use of global fossil fuel energy while advocating increased use of unreliable and costly renewable energy, especially wind and solar.  

In 2021 non-OECD nations used 60% more total energy than the OECD nations but used less wind and solar than OECD. This outcome shows that non-OECD nations clearly lack government mandates and priorities for wind and solar energy.

The BP energy use data also shows that between 2005 and 2021 the OECD nations energy use of nuclear and hydro declined by 17% while use of these resources increased by over 72% for the non-OECD nations during this period with these nations using 13.5% more nuclear and hydro energy than the OECD nations in 2021.

OECD nations environmentalists and anti-nuclear activists appear to have been successful in curtailing growth of nuclear and hydro is these nations.        

Reliable and cost-effective fossil fuel energy resources including coal, petroleum and natural gas continued (thank goodness) to provide the great majority of world (82.28% in year 2021) and all world regional energy use requirements as presented in the Table 2 below based on the BP year 2021 world energy use statistical analysis.

Note the non-OECD nations globally dominate 85.34% fossil fuel use to achieve their year 2021 energy needs. Even globally insignificant and climate alarmist renewable energy mandate focused California used fossil fuels for 70% of its total energy use in year 2020.

Fossil fuels in year 2021 provided the world with 18 times greater energy than did wind and solar (489.66 exajoules versus 27.27 exajoules) after decades of OECD global government mandates requiring use of costly and unreliable wind and solar even with trillions in global government driven subsidies and mandates.

BP data shows the U.S. decreased its fossil fuel use between 2005 and 2021 by about 11% and most significantly decreased the use of coal fuel by 54%. These significant achievements which are discussed further below are largely ignored and concealed by Democrats in Congress that have consistently supported Biden’s incompetent efforts to decrease natural gas production and use. 

In September 2020 the EIA released a report showing that the U.S. replaced coal fuel with higher efficiency, lower cost and lower emissions natural gas fuel with this change contributing the great majority (61.2%) of a cumulative 5.475 billion metric tons of reductions in CO2 emissions between 2005 and 2019.

Table 3 below presents data on World, Selected World Regions, Country, and California showing total energy use for the years 2005 and 2021 with the energy use growth percent from 2005 to 2021 also provided. 

The OECD nations (which accounted for only 38.63% of total global energy use in 2021) led by the U.S. and EU experienced energy use declines between the period 2005 and 2021with these nations shrinking energy use by -4.3% during this period (as shown in Table 3).

The globally dominant energy use non-OECD nations (which accounted for 61.37% of total global energy use in 2021) increased their energy use by +66.7% during this same time period.    

This BP energy data establishes that the non-OECD nations are by far the world’s largest and fastest growing energy users with these nations now completely dominating total global energy, growth, and fuel use both present and future outcomes

The non-OECD nations increased fossil fuel use by 113.94 exajoules (311.73 exajoules in 2021 versus 197.79 exajoules in 2005) in the period from 2005 to 2021 with this increased use of fossil fuels being 435% times larger than the entire world’s increased use of wind and solar (27.27 exajoules in 2021 versus 1.08 exajoules in 2005) during year 2021. 

The 2005 to 2021 periods large increase in global fossil fuel use overwhelming dominates global energy use growth despite renewable energy advocate tactics of hyping large percent increase comparisons for wind and solar energy growth based on these resources changes from their tiny initial starting values.

The non-OECD nations are continuing to grow their already dominate energy use requirements and are fully committed to significant further increased use of coal, as well as increased use of natural gas and petroleum that achieved growth of over 65% between 2005 and 2021. 

These nations will continue to increase their future dominance over the OECD nations in global energy growth as well as for increased growth globally of fossil fuels which will inexorably grow in much larger absolute proportions than solar and wind.

The OECD nations cannot stop this from happening and despite their nefarious efforts otherwise cannot conceal this global energy growth and fuel use (as well as emissions growth) reality.

The incompetence of the OECD global nations costly and unreliable zero emissions hyped government schemes needs to be acknowledged and curtailed.

As demonstrated by decades of failed efforts the OECD nations cannot control future global energy, growth, and fuel use (or emissions) energy outcomes as the BP year 2021 comprehensive global energy statistical analysis data clearly displays.     

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March 22, 2023 6:09 am

Well, who’d have thunk it! Global energy use is increasing faster than unreliables can fill the gap!

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  atticman
March 22, 2023 7:22 am

Oh but the Eco-Nazis don’t think wind and solar are just going to “fill the gap,” they think wind and solar are going to REPLACE fossil fuels.

Their delusions are rising to the level of a mental disorder.

Last edited 2 months ago by AGW is Not Science
March 22, 2023 6:26 am

“…government leaders of the U.S., EU and UK can’t seem to bring themselves to acknowledge that global energy outcomes regarding the world’s future energy growth, fuel use as well as emissions growth is out of their control and has been for years.”

Indeed. But the UK could open up fracking etc, could it not? And anyway, populations are an entirely different matter. The last three pandemical years have shown that the people are very much in the control of the new aristocracelebrity class. The neo-feudalist green policies of the new woke elites mean that they actually profit from the miseries they inflict upon the masses. Up yours Marxism – as I call it.

“The true conflict today is not between humankind and Mother Earth. It’s between the needs of ordinary people and the fantasies of a global elite that dolls up its loss of faith in industry and progress as ‘climate-change activism’. That tension will explode soon. We should hope it does, anyway.”

If only.

Last edited 2 months ago by strativarius
Reply to  strativarius
March 22, 2023 9:12 pm

Thankfully climate alarmism is almost exclusively a “white” persons disease. It inflicts Canada, US, Europe, Australia and NZ to a great extent. But most of the rest of the world only pays mild lip service to it. And fortunately that “rest of the world” is where most people live.

Curious George
March 22, 2023 7:28 am

No data can confirm the future. The future is a difficult beast.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Curious George
March 22, 2023 12:13 pm

Baring radical, unknowable changes, for the next 5 to 15 years’ world energy consumption is essentially baked in. Baring radical, unknowable technological changes, the increases in the developing worlds’ fossil fuel and nuclear energy production can be expected to continue for the foreseeable future (30+ years).

Reply to  Curious George
March 22, 2023 3:33 pm

À government with a long history of failure can be reliably confirmed to continue.

March 22, 2023 8:38 am

If after all the time and money wasted on renewables to date we can’t even cover the increase in fossil fuel use what makes people think we can convert 100% to renewables?

Last edited 2 months ago by mleskovarsocalrrcom
Reply to  mleskovarsocalrrcom
March 22, 2023 9:03 am

“what makes people think we can convert 100% to renewables?”
“Jerry, just remember…it’s not a lie if you believe it”

Reply to  mleskovarsocalrrcom
March 22, 2023 10:33 am

we can’t”
should have written
“we didn’t”

We _could_have_ done a lot of things, including things that would not have seemed wise to an average Joe.

Dave Fair
Reply to  KevinM
March 22, 2023 12:19 pm

We did alot of things that did not seem wise to an average Joe. And they turned out to be very unwise. Nut Zero, DEI, allowing/glorifying BLM riots, Marxist economic schemes, normalizing sexual dysfunctions, grooming children for abnormal sexual and social practices & etc.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  mleskovarsocalrrcom
March 22, 2023 12:04 pm


March 22, 2023 10:26 am

alone in year 2021
A year that should probably be footnoted on all charts as COVID lockdown distorted.
Data should never be thrown away, but points like the author wishes to score are not worth contaminating with data that raises doubt.

Larry Hamlin
Reply to  KevinM
March 24, 2023 12:16 pm

Your comment is completely wrong. The BP report specifically notes that for year 2021 “primary energy grew by its largest amount in history, with emerging economies accounting for most of the increase.” See their graphic below.

Screenshot 2023-02-02 at 3.38.42 PM.jpg
Ron Long
March 22, 2023 10:30 am

Yahoo! Fossil fuels forever! For instance, this model year Chrysler will build 1,000 Demons, a sporty coupe, with a motor over 1,000 horsepower, and 0 to 60 mph time of 1.66 seconds! wait for it…………when this model year is over they will convert the Demon plant to produce electric vehicles. J$F#&C”=!! No more Demons? Beam me up, Scotty.

Lee Riffee
Reply to  Ron Long
March 22, 2023 12:21 pm

Chrysler, like so many other large automakers, is in the process of committing suicide. OK, much of it is government mandated suicide, but who would willingly go into oblivion and failure without putting up a fight? If I owned a large business and was told by TPTB that I could no longer make or sell my most profitable products, you bet I’d fight back!
I also read that they will no longer be making the Hemi V-8 engine (for any of their vehicles, including trucks) after this model year.
All I have to say is if I’m still around 30 years from now, I fully expect to read one of two possibilities when future me looks up “Chrysler”. One, they are still around because they came to their senses and fought back against government regulations and they went back to making cars and trucks that people actually wanted. Two, they have joined the list of defunct automakers of the past century, like American Motors, Studebaker, Packard, etc….

March 22, 2023 10:31 am

It is not about climate or energy per se, it is about the destruction of Western civilization on all fronts – religion, culture, freedom, liberty, law, etc.

I am at a point where I view climate and energy alarmist hype as but a small part of the whole, and those pushing CAGW or wind/solar are no different than drag queens at children’s’ story hour. The end game is anarchy, death, enslavement and elitist power.

For adults with even a modicum of real-life experience, of course they are skeptical of CAGW and ruinable energy claims, and it doesn’t take a scientist or engineer to see it.

March 22, 2023 12:53 pm

Despite a common “consensus” misconception that oil, gas and coal are remains of living organisms, they are not fossil, but mineral deposits of abiogenic origin, constantly generated by chain of reactions powered by Earth’s internal heat.

Reply to  Someone
March 22, 2023 3:34 pm

Almost certainly true for natural gas

Reply to  Someone
March 22, 2023 3:37 pm

Limestone + iron + heat => natural gas + rock

David Wojick
March 22, 2023 12:56 pm

Good stuff but predictions do not confirm hypotheses.

March 22, 2023 1:06 pm
March 22, 2023 1:15 pm

Very important, this needs wide distribution. The average guy needs to know how much he is being cheated and lied to. It is disgusting. When he becomes informed things will change and change fast. No one likes getting screwed over.

March 22, 2023 3:17 pm

I’ve found that chatGPT is excellent at producing energy use satistcs with a bit of practice. Data that would take days to put together can be done in minutes. And you can ask chat to add columns, subtotals percentages etc

Chat will initially tell you it can’t do this, but if you say use bp or IEA deta and don’t take no for an answer it suddenly gets to work. Tell it to be concise or it quickly becomes a motherhood generator

There is a graphing function Im still working on. Mostly the engine spouts woke nonsense and platitudes if you let it. But buried under this nonsense is a very knowledgeable data source that acts like a super Google that understands what you are asking and is very good at following instruction.

Double check any stats as chat often gives conflicting results. I try and make sure it totals everything to 100%.

Last edited 2 months ago by ge0050
March 22, 2023 3:30 pm

My session today with chatGPT the engine said fossil fuel usage was increasing exponentially, and even in the most optimistic IEA projections renewables will not replace fossil fuels by 2050. Most likely renewablss will remain a distant second

March 22, 2023 3:56 pm

So, in 16 years from 2005 to 2021, China’s energy consumption went up by 82.05 exajoules, while the US saved 3.91 EJ and Europe went down by 7.91 EJ. So China has used up nearly 7 times the energy savings of the US and EU combined.

And with all the hoopla about global warming, wind and solar only produce less than 6% of the energy consumption in the US and China, and less than 9% in Europe and California. The total energy from wind and solar in the US and EU (10.35 EJ) is only 12.6% of the INCREASE in China’s energy use over the last 15 years.

Trying to develop wind and solar to cut CO2 emissions in the light of China’s massive increase is like trying to stop a freight train with no brakes by dragging one’s foot on the rails.

In the light of China’s inevitable increase in emissions (who will force them to reduce emissions?) what is the point of pursuing wind and solar? If the extra CO2 in the air causes climate change (a dubious hypothesis at best), why not forget about wind and solar and deal with the new climate, such as building seawalls around low-lying cities?

March 22, 2023 4:01 pm

Table3: Global annual energy production from renewables since 2010 (in TWh) and percentage increase from the previous year.

Year Energy Production (TWh) % Increase from Previous Year
2010 3,714 N/A
2011 4,319 16.2%
2012 4,991 15.5%
2013 5,672 13.6%
2014 6,418 13.2%
2015 7,287 13.5%
2016 8,232 12.9%
2017 9,271 12.6%
2018 10,322 11.3%
2019 11,523 11.6%
2020 12,984 12.7%
Note: Percentages may not add up exactly due to rounding. I’ve saved this table as requested

Last edited 2 months ago by ge0050
March 22, 2023 4:06 pm

Comment posted in error. Lease remove.

Last edited 2 months ago by ge0050
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