Claim: Climate Change will Cause More Drought and More Frequent Intense Rainfall in Britain

Essay by Eric Worrall

Last month the MET explained how global warming causes more intense dry periods. But University of Bristol now informs us extreme downpours will happen more often.

Intense downpours in the UK will increase due to climate change – new study

Published: March 8, 2023 3.58am AEDT
Elizabeth Kendon
Professor of Climate Science, University of Bristol

In July 2021, Kew in London experienced a month’s rain in just three hours. Across the city, tube lines were suspended and stations closed as London experienced its wettest day in decades and flash floods broke out. Just under two weeks later, it happened again: intense downpours led to widespread disruption, including the flooding of two London hospitals

Colleagues and I have created a new set of 100-year climate projections to more accurately assess the likelihood of heavy rain downpours like these over the coming years and decades. The short answer is climate change means these extreme downpours will happen more often in the UK – and be even more intense.

To generate these projections, we used the Met Office operational weather forecast model, but run on long climate timescales. This provided very detailed climate projections – for every 2.2km grid box over the UK, for every hour, for 100 years from 1981 to 2080. These are much more detailed than traditional climate projections and needed to be run as a series of 20-year simulations that were then stitched together. Even on the Met Office supercomputer, these still took about six months to run.

Read more:

Earlier this year the climate prophecy was a little different;

Climate change, drought and water security

Posted on 2 February, 2023 by Met Office Press Office

Climate change and increasing heat drought events 

In November 2022, the WMO published its first State of Global Water Resources report which assessed the effects of climate, environmental and societal change on water resources. At the time, WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said, “The impacts of climate change are often felt through water – more intense and frequent droughts, more extreme flooding, more erratic seasonal rainfall and accelerated melting of glaciers – with cascading effects on economies, ecosystems and all aspects of our daily lives. And yet, there is insufficient understanding of changes in the distribution, quantity, and quality of freshwater resources.” 

As the climate continues to change as a result of greenhouse gas emissions, we are seeing increasingly hot, dry conditions in the UK and globally. 2022 has recently been confirmed as the hottest year on record for the UK with an annual average temperature of over 10°C, and this trend is projected to continue in the future. July 2022 saw the driest month since 1935 for England as a whole, and the driest on record for East Anglia, southeast and southern England, with the UK seeing just 56% of its average rainfall for the month. As a result, drought was declared by the Environment Agency in many parts of the UK in August 2022. 

Read more:

Don’t forget folks, settled science. Let us hope for Britain’s sake, the global warming caused more frequent intense rainfall cancels out the global warming driven increase in hot, dry conditions.

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Tom Halla
March 9, 2023 6:04 am

California has several meters of global warming in the mountains right now.

Reply to  Tom Halla
March 9, 2023 6:38 am

… several meters of global warming in the mountains …
and it’s interfering with the planet’s rate of rotation (conservation of the angular momentum) or is it the other way around, either way it is far worse than expected.
There you go.

Curious George
Reply to  vuk
March 9, 2023 7:39 am

Does the mass of water change when it precipitates?

Reply to  Curious George
March 9, 2023 7:50 am

No, but depends where it ends up. If evaporation from equatorial regions falls as snow/(later ice) on the Arctic or Antarctic it would speed up rotation (not much though) and vice versa, ice melting waters from Arctic or Antarctic will partially move to lower latitudes and slow down rotation.
The above was a bit of ‘tongue in cheek’ comment.

Reply to  vuk
March 9, 2023 8:51 am

“Parts per billion”

Reply to  vuk
March 9, 2023 8:50 am

and it’s interfering with the planet’s rate of rotation (conservation of the angular momentum)
How many windmills would it take?

Reply to  KevinM
March 9, 2023 9:52 am

They are 99% if not all in the Northern Hemisphere.
They are not only affecting the LOD but causing an increase in the Earth’s axis tilt.
Result is the true cause of the climate change, i.e. warmer summers and melting of the Arctic ice.
As usual, inevitable consequence of a bad ‘science’
However, on the plus side, another few millions of windmills might stop axis following its 40,000 year turning back cycle, preventing the next ice age. 🙂 🙂 😉

Dave Andrews
Reply to  vuk
March 10, 2023 5:54 am

According to the Global Wind Energy Council (yes it really does exist) in it’s 2022 report 2021 was the second best year with almost 94GW of wind installed including 21.1GW of offshore., 80% of the latter by China. China also has the the largest installation of onshore wind. All those turbines on that side of the world must be doing something to the Earth’s tilt. 🙂

Reply to  Dave Andrews
March 10, 2023 7:12 am

I think it has tilted enough that only the woke progressives are still hanging on. Most of the world’s intelligence seems to have slid off into the abyss.

Leo Smith
March 9, 2023 6:08 am

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose…

Henry Pool
March 9, 2023 6:10 am
Ed Zuiderwijk
March 9, 2023 6:22 am

It’s simple, folks. The water making up the rain has become drier.

Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
March 9, 2023 6:32 am

Beat me to it.


Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
March 9, 2023 8:01 am

No, as Griff used to inform us (I miss the Griffter) water is wetter now.

Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
March 9, 2023 6:07 pm

made up of more dust, even PM2.5 dust?

Reply to  AndyHce
March 10, 2023 7:13 am

Best not breath next time it rains.

March 9, 2023 6:23 am

It’s a classic case of

Yeah, but no, but yeah, but no, but yeah, but no….

Climate anxiety is often accompanied by schizophrenia and multiple personality disorders.

Reply to  strativarius
March 10, 2023 7:28 am

I have a nickel to help sponsor a study.

David Dibbell
March 9, 2023 6:29 am

So universal attribution is the result, no matter what weather condition is being investigated. In those supercomputer simulations that took six months to run, was that a bug or a feature?

March 9, 2023 6:33 am

What did Putin call Britain?

Reply to  ResourceGuy
March 9, 2023 7:00 am

No idea, but ex Shell boss Ben van Beurden should call back Putin Grozny to say say thank you, since he received a pay package of £9.7m last year, up more than 50% from 2021.

Michael in Dublin
March 9, 2023 6:33 am

This seems a case of the left hand having no clue what the right hand is doing.
They are not even aware that they are contradicting one another
but we must believe they understand climate change.

Reply to  Michael in Dublin
March 9, 2023 7:15 am

Consensus is a many splendored thing, but science it is not.

Hoyt Clagwell
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
March 9, 2023 8:12 am

It’s part of the climate crusader dogma that simply declares “all bad things will get worse.” As if CO2 is the chemical signature of ‘badness’.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Michael in Dublin
March 9, 2023 9:45 am

I think it’s a case of the left hand not knowing what the left hand is doing

March 9, 2023 6:49 am

The magic molecule can do anything!

March 9, 2023 6:54 am

Same thing here in the US. First it was the worst drought in 1,200 years that was projected not to end until 2030.

Now it’s flat”atmospheric rivers”

First it was the end of snow. Now it is record snow with more on the way.

Joseph Zorzin
Reply to  rah
March 9, 2023 7:21 am

atmospheric glaciers! 🙂

Hoyt Clagwell
Reply to  rah
March 9, 2023 8:12 am

Every change in the weather is declared “the new normal!”

March 9, 2023 6:56 am

BTW I read that the UK is getting some snow.

Reply to  rah
March 9, 2023 6:58 am

Parts of it – the northerly parts

Phillip Bratby
Reply to  strativarius
March 9, 2023 8:37 am

We had snow in the South West. Kids just did not know what it was.

Reply to  Phillip Bratby
March 9, 2023 9:48 am

“We had snow in the South West. Kids just did not know what it was.”

Perfect Phillip!

Leo Smith
Reply to  strativarius
March 9, 2023 8:42 am

Smattering here in east Anglia. I think London copped it worse

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Leo Smith
March 9, 2023 9:46 am

In the opinion of londoners

Reply to  strativarius
March 9, 2023 10:28 am

We’ve had it here today. I’m 1000ft above sea level, and they forecast an Amber warning!

Well, if this qualifies as Amber, they’re certainly lowering their threat levels.

Reply to  strativarius
March 10, 2023 2:35 am

A weather map on the BBC the other day showed that it was mainly in the south but they are forecasting lots of snow in Scotland on Saturday.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  rah
March 9, 2023 12:33 pm
Onthe Move
March 9, 2023 7:00 am

In my perspective these events, drought and more rain, will happen at the same time

Dave O.
March 9, 2023 7:03 am

“Let us hope for Britain’s sake, the global warming caused more frequent intense rainfall cancels out the global warming driven increase in hot, dry conditions.” Is this the “net zero” they’re talking about?

March 9, 2023 7:11 am

Let us hope for Britain’s sake, the global warming caused more frequent intense rainfall cancels out the global warming driven increase in hot, dry conditions.

As both articles clearly point out, the two phenomena aren’t mutually exclusive.

Reply to  TheFinalNail
March 9, 2023 7:27 am

Yes, climate cooling, warming, change… undeniable, unfalsifiable, an article of faith.

Reply to  n.n
March 9, 2023 9:27 am

I invite you to read what the articles actually say. It’s part-copied in the post above and there are links to them both.

Last edited 3 months ago by TheFinalNail
Reply to  TheFinalNail
March 9, 2023 8:32 am

Have you told the polar bear owning penguins? They need to know.

Last edited 3 months ago by strativarius
Reply to  strativarius
March 9, 2023 9:29 am

Have you checked on latest Antarctic sea ice extent yet? You don’t want to know.

Reply to  TheFinalNail
March 9, 2023 12:20 pm

Can we get the “Ship Of Fools” to pay another visit there to check on it for us?

Reply to  TheFinalNail
March 10, 2023 4:15 am

The fact that it’s declining slightly, after being well above average for a couple of decades? It’s done this before.

Reply to  TheFinalNail
March 10, 2023 4:18 am

The February 2023 average Arctic sea ice extent was 14.18 million square kilometers (5.47 million square miles), the third lowest February in the satellite record (Figure 1a). February extent was 1.12 million square kilometers (432,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average of 15.30 million square kilometers (5.91 million square miles), but 210,000 square kilometers (81,000 square miles) above the record low set in February 2018.

Arctic sea ice is still there, so go wet the bed elsewhere.

March 9, 2023 7:23 am

“Climate Change”® is all things to all people at all times and in all situations, as long as it is negative. Impoverishment and societal retrograde is the only possible solution.

March 9, 2023 7:25 am

climate warming, cooling, change… undeniable, unfalsifiable, an article of faith.

[catastrophic] [anthropogenic] cw, cc, cc, however, is inferred from models (i.e. hypotheses) with no demonstrated skill for political, social, and commercial progress.

A consensus sold through social dissonance, psychiatric dysphoria, and bennies for babies.

John Oliver
March 9, 2023 7:36 am

We have had an exceptionally warm winter where I live (mid Atlantic east coast USA) which to all my liberal friends is proof positive confirmation of their belief system. Oh the humanity!

Reply to  John Oliver
March 9, 2023 8:56 am

Tell them to look at USA SW, eg AZ

John Hultquist
Reply to  John Oliver
March 9, 2023 9:26 am

In central Washington State, I got 7 inches of fluffy white global warming Wednesday evening.
The Cascade Mountains get most of it — I’m in the snow shadow.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  John Hultquist
March 10, 2023 6:09 am

Almost got the same here in NE Wales (10.5cms) Thursday and we are well away from Snowdonia etc almost on the edge of the Cheshire plain.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  John Oliver
March 9, 2023 12:42 pm

“all my liberal friends is proof positive confirmation of their belief system”

The reason the southern tier of the U.S. and the northeast are having a mild winter is because of the jet stream which is running from west to east and separating the U.S. into a northern half and a souther half, with the southern half, south of the jet stream experiencing mild weather while those north of the jet stream experience colder weather because they are subjec to the arctic air, which, for the most part, is blocked from reaching the southern parts.

I would like to see how the liberal friends try to connect CO2 to the jet stream configuration, because the jet stream configuration is the only thing driving these weather events. We all know they can’t connect the two so they are living in a false reality.,43.45,264/loc=-2.619,58.087

March 9, 2023 7:47 am

Let’s not forget the weakening Earth’s magnetic field and the higher level of solar activity over the next few years impacting the Earth’s weather on a more global scale: where the major highs and lows form, jet stream strengths, NAO, ENSO, Hadley cells and a whole lot more.

When you have the huge fusion reactor just 93 million miles away sending energy our way every second and it slowly oscillates from one phase to another, things can happen outside your door because of it. I truly don’t understand why this isn’t included in any short term and especially longer term forecasting models. One good blast and our “modern” way of life is over.

Reply to  rbabcock
March 9, 2023 8:57 am

You answered your own question.

Reply to  rbabcock
March 9, 2023 2:52 pm

I recall an observation that Earth’s next magnetic poles flip is due / overdue.

Sometimes a gradual shift between north pointing south and vice-versa.

Other times a fairly rapid change-over.

Past events all well recorded in the geologic rock formations.

Auru K
March 9, 2023 7:50 am

The emission of greenhouse gases causing global warming issues like weather conditions and huge phenomenon. Controlling the emissions by reducing harmful gas, chemicals may reduce the risk of phenomena in future.
For any queries visit us on Energy Environmental Solutions

Dave Fair
Reply to  Auru K
March 9, 2023 10:22 am

Wow, people! Here we have a real life example of a crony capitalist profiteering off the climate change scam.

March 9, 2023 8:35 am

The alarmist narrative on climate change is causing intense difficulties…

Britain’s crusade for net zero saw another major failure on Tuesday, with the country having to resort to using its emergency coal-fired power plants as renewables were unable to keep up with demand.

Leo Smith
Reply to  strativarius
March 9, 2023 8:43 am

We’ve had coal running all winter.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Leo Smith
March 9, 2023 9:56 am

We had coal running most of the time in July and September.

Reply to  strativarius
March 9, 2023 9:03 am

intense difficulties
One man’s intense difficulties, another man’s no big deal

March 9, 2023 8:48 am

Q: Did you like it?
A1: Yes
R1: Then it will never happen again
A2: No
R2: Then it will become the new normal

In fairness, most news seems to be reported this way, it only bothers me when I pay attention.

March 9, 2023 9:14 am

Eric, Charles Rotter did a good piece on the same bit on WUWT just before yours. There’s enough variation between your posts that I appreciate both, but others may not.

FWIW, this is another claim that warming will cause increased cooling events, and based on the least likely version of the fraud — suitable for idiots and children (unfortunately those weirdly called political leadership)

Reply to  Eric Worrall
March 9, 2023 6:45 pm

Not at all.

John Hultquist
March 9, 2023 9:17 am

Story Tip, or ?
 Where did 13 million tons of trees go?

If you don’t like medieval era history, stop reading here.

An interesting exhibit is available (March 10th) in St. Louis:
The Nature of Things: Medieval Art and Ecology, 1100-1550;
organized by Heather Alexis Smith, Assistant Curator at the Pulitzer.

Home page:
Pulitzer Arts Foundation
3716 Washington Boulevard, St. Louis, MO 63108

Page of interest:

With nearly fifty sculptures, textiles, and books made between 1100 and 1550 CE, The Nature of Things highlights the links between artmaking and the environment in the later medieval era. Featuring a range of materials including wood, stone, cloth, and metal, this exhibition considers the vast array of natural resources needed to produce the artworks that decorated churches and households across Europe during the Middle Ages.

There is a synopsis in the Wall Street Journal. (by Susan Delson)
March 4, 2023, print edition as ‘The Medieval Art Industry’. p. C14


” … this jewel-like fragment and others like it were energy hogs. Stained glass was in great demand in the Middle Ages, and manufacturing it required large quantities of sand, wood ash and powdered metals melted at extremely high temperatures. According to one estimate, the European glass industry burned through roughly 13 million tons of firewood between 1250 and 1500.”

March 9, 2023 9:22 am

Didn’t I read these same reports 20 years ago???

March 9, 2023 10:04 am

OMG, it is unprecidented, we had a whole YEAR of snow in 4 hours today. The sky is falling….

Peta of Newark
March 9, 2023 10:19 am

What’s that Climate like eh: Children just aren’t going to know what worms are

comment image


Reply to  Peta of Newark
March 9, 2023 2:55 pm

They look like Portuguese millipedes.

a.k.a. “train-stoppers”

March 9, 2023 12:55 pm

This is what you get when you live and breathe bumper sticker slogans. It can be anything you say it is.

John V. Wright
March 9, 2023 1:08 pm

Yes Eric. And yesterday I posted this comment on Paul Homewood’s excellent article on a similar observation:

Yes Paul, thank you. The other story doing the rounds in the Marxist organisation they call the BBC is the devastating DROUGHT in East Anglia…lowest rainfall in 30 years…climate change threatens farmers livelihoods…vegetable shortages looming…blah blah blah. Quite how the drought ties up with an increased risk of flood damage they have not managed to explain.
More seriously, the BBC remains the go-to ‘news’ organisation for most Brits and its coverage of climate change topics is shameful. Most viewers and listeners have no idea that there is a scientific debate about these issues because the BBC’s unbalanced approach is that everyone agrees that there is a climate emergency and if you don’t go along with the hysteria then you are a dreadful human being who doesn’t care about the earth.
Fortunately, as an experienced former journalist, I can see through editorial bias but the effect it has on people is shocking. I have conversations with apparently intelligent folk who believe the most incredible rubbish. They have never heard of Richard Lindzen and Will Happer (needless to say they and other sceptics are not allowed anywhere near the British public) and I appear to be alone among my friends and colleagues who actually study what is going on, read the facts and figures and ask awkward questions. Basically, the BBC has brainwashed Britain.”

Dave Andrews
Reply to  John V. Wright
March 10, 2023 6:23 am

A paper by Spraggs et al 2015 evaluated droughts in East of the UK and found that the most severe were 1854-60 and 1893-1907 and were characterised by contiguous dry winters and summers.

Don’t have a direct link but the paper is mentioned in the following

March 9, 2023 1:21 pm

“…we expect periods of rapid change – with records being broken, some by a considerable margin – and periods when there is a pause, with no new records set.”

… thanks Nostradamus.

March 9, 2023 1:35 pm

When they realise that making specific predictions is risky, they turn to covering the full range of weather including anything from frequent intense rainfall to increased frequency of droughts all driven by Global Warming.

March 9, 2023 2:03 pm

The worst issue we face with climate change is the droughtflood which is second only to the heatcold we will experience as well.

Steve Case
March 9, 2023 2:07 pm

1970 – 1979 it was “Global Cooling” What’s the big deal?

Ulric Lyons
March 9, 2023 6:07 pm

Met Office and IPCC circulation models predict drier UK summers with rising CO2 forcing via a positive influence on the NAO, but the summers have become on average wetter since 1995, due to low solar.

Rod Evans
March 10, 2023 12:20 am

Here is an update on the UKs daily climate change.
Yesterday here in central England (West) we received 4 inches or 100 mm of constant global warming during the day. The climate changed around 1700 hrs and rain fell clearing the deposited global warming entirely. Overnight the return of global warming, has resulted in another white out condition with snow, sorry I mean global warming (sorry fell into old English there for a moment, sorry) again covering the landscape. Wetter global warming is expected later.
Stay tuned for more climate change updates….alternatively tune in to the BBC where you can enjoy Climate Alarm and climate change reports daily, with pretty pictures and wavy lines used to compliment the apocryphal scary stories.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Rod Evans
March 10, 2023 6:27 am

You forgot to mention the lovely plastic looking amber warning areas that regularly show up 🙂

March 10, 2023 2:26 am

Can they predict the timing of the next “intense downpour” in the UK and on which part of the UK it will fall?
Can they predict how many times there will be instances of “intense downpour” in the UK in 2023?

March 10, 2023 7:24 am

Apparently the magic molecule has limitations.

“Higher temperatures and more moisture in the Arctic mean the region is greening up.”
This is from a study about arctic river meanderings. There is no mention of CO2 fertilization which apparently only greens the rest of the planet.
The headline to the article is also misleading. It is not related to the subject except by the word rivers.
I am not sure if this is bad scientific conclusion or just abhorrent science reporting.
A possible story tip.

March 11, 2023 8:48 am

I asked Dr Kendon why she chose RCP8.5

RCP8.5 was chosen as it gives a high signal to noise ratio – and so allows us to extract the climate change signal above natural climate variability.

We can then use this to estimate the change per degree of warming, which can be applied to other emissions scenarios.

We appreciate RCP8.5 is a high end scenario, with lower emissions scenarios now considered more likely – however understanding plausible high end changes are needed for some users to support precautionary planning.

Last edited 2 months ago by Redge
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