Essay by Eric Worrall
“… Unless humans rapidly change mass food production systems, including eating less beef and dairy, emissions from the sector could add nearly 1 degree to global temperatures by 2100 …”
The food we eat is ramping up global warming, study warns
By Mark Saunokonoko • Senior Journalist
8:51am Mar 7, 2023
Unless humans rapidly change mass food production systems, including eating less beef and dairy, emissions from the sector could add nearly 1 degree to global temperatures by 2100, a study has warned.
If that modelling is accurate, the 1.5 degrees target in the Paris Agreement which called for countries to take concerted action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is in peril.
Global food consumption alone could boost warming by almost 1 degree by the end of this century, researchers from Columbia University in the US said.
…Read more: https://www.9news.com.au/national/the-food-we-eat-could-add-nearly-1-c-to-global-warming-by-2100/acc958cd-a45c-4918-b0be-82465be2bb88
The abstract of the study;
Future warming from global food consumption
Catherine C. Ivanovich, Tianyi Sun, Doria R. Gordon & Ilissa B. Ocko
Nature Climate Change (2023)Cite this article
Food consumption is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and evaluating its future warming impact is crucial for guiding climate mitigation action. However, the lack of granularity in reporting food item emissions and the widespread use of oversimplified metrics such as CO2 equivalents have complicated interpretation. We resolve these challenges by developing a global food consumption GHG emissions inventory separated by individual gas species and employing a reduced-complexity climate model, evaluating the associated future warming contribution and potential benefits from certain mitigation measures. We find that global food consumption alone could add nearly 1 °C to warming by 2100. Seventy five percent of this warming is driven by foods that are high sources of methane (ruminant meat, dairy and rice). However, over 55% of anticipated warming can be avoided from simultaneous improvements to production practices, the universal adoption of a healthy diet and consumer- and retail-level food waste reductions.Read more: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01605-8
In my opinion, based on my personal experience, a mandatory switch to a vegetarian diet would kill a lot of people.
A while ago, I had a personal health crisis – I was putting on too much weight, and my blood pressure was climbing into the danger zone.
I had to lose weight or suffer the consequences. But how does a long term fat guy lose weight and keep the weight off?
My doctor said “meat is your friend”. Some of my friends said “I’m thin because I eat meat, and very little veg”.
I gave it a try – and it worked. I’ve lost heaps of weight, all my health metrics are back in the green again, or out of the red zone at least.
Meat works for me because I don’t feel hungry, which was the downfall of all the other diets I’ve tried over the years. I eat as much meat as I want, and still lose weight. The only rule I have to stick to is to avoid carb rich food, avoid potatoes, bread, corn and pasta (OK, maybe I break the rule once or twice per week – but not every day, like I used to).
So my response to anyone who demands that I surrender my lifeline to health and wellbeing, the one diet out of all the diets I tried which finally delivered results, a diet which is also helping some of my friends, to prevent one miserable degree of global warming by the end of the century, is you can take your climate concern and shove it… I think you know the rest of that phrase. And I suspect a lot of people in my situation would feel the same.
“… Unless humans rapidly change mass food production systems, including eating less beef and dairy, emissions from the sector could add nearly 1 degree to global temperatures by 2100 …”
Survey question: Do you eat this cheeseburger if eating less beef and dairy could subtract nearly 1 degree to global temperatures by 2100?
Typos can be attributed to one-handed typing. The other hand was holding a cheeseburger.
Also: obligatory comment about eating a cheeseburger to control “feelings”, hunger or otherwise, when the weight of analysis sides against it.
See also “The greatest danger Tocqueville saw was that public opinion would become an all-powerful force, and that the majority could tyrannize unpopular minorities and marginal individuals.”
It is far more common for the minority to tyrannize the majority yes? ( I think we are getting there rapidly)
Make that a double cheeseburger, with fries and a shake!
Anyone remember when McDonalds had real malts?
Back when Hamburgers were 19¢ and Cheeseburgers were 29¢.
I can remember when it was real meat.
Give up Beef and Dairy… never going to happen.
Not on my watch
All Climate Hypocrites must go first and lead the way for others who CHOOSE to follow
Give up reading about global warming … I’m all for that.
Well, maybe we’ll all burn in a CO2-induced hellfire, but a good steak makes it go down easier.
Exercise, lifestyle and diet are the core of good health.
I saw a piece the other day that claimed that “the vast majority of Americans aged 17-24 are unfit for military service”, high obesity rates have narrowed the recruiting pool considerably. High sugar and processed food are not good. Forget the climate
change view just look at the health care costs.
I’m and old timer and get job offers now and again. I was told the younger guys just don’t want/know how to work, don’t always show up every day, can’t pass a drug screening ect.
It starts at home and at school.
An example of Mathemagic, assuming methane does not overlap the absorption spectrum of both water vapor and CO2, and forgetting that the absorption is a log effect. So assuming a dry oxy-nitrogen atmosphere, maybe. But the assumption runs contrary to reality.
They are probably a pack of vegans, anyway.
“They are probably a pack of vegans, anyway.”
Well, why don’t they go back to Vega? It’s only 40 light years away!
What they drive on Vega
Is ‘Vega’ also known as “Hell”?
Naw, you get a Hellcat there
Is it not true that Vegans emit more methane from their backsides along with the CO2 from their mouths? Maybe culling is required. Cows are effectively processed grass so should be suitable for vegans!
Did you hear about the tiger that lost weight on a vegan diet?
Mind you, he was only eating 1 vegan each day.
Cows are Vegan so I’m a second hand vegan
As I recall, had all their Paris Accord plans been followed perfectly by every nation, the G.A.T. increase to disaster would have been reduced by .1 to .3 degrees, using their math.
(Their CATASTROPHIC warming would have been delayed by, at most, 3 years.)
The absurdity from the abstract, “We resolve these challenges by developing a global food consumption GHG emissions inventory separated by individual gas species and employing a reduced-complexity climate model, evaluating the associated future warming contribution and potential benefits from certain mitigation measures.”
Thanks for the laugh, Catherine C. Ivanovich, Tianyi Sun, Doria R. Gordon & Ilissa B. Ocko !
Publish or perish – I forgive them.
If Ilissa B Ocko has a Doctorate, does that make her Doc Ock?
Ooh my Spidey Senses are a tinglin’
While working under the Obama administration, a non-published call went out to all Federal researchers. My interpretation of this “call” was that if you can perform research that proves “climate change” you can receive a lot of multi-year funding for that research.
I just could not come up of anything that would be useful. I did not think about writing peer reviewed articles that infer that we should all starve to “save the planet.”
I predict food riots and political change coming. Sri Lanka was just the beginning.
Uh, no. I ain’t giving up eating meat for some study put together by some academics. Probably on the back of a taxpayer funded grant. 1 degree by 2100! Give me a break. For some supposed to be so smart “scientists”, they obviously missed the part of early education where warmth is required to grow the veggies and maintain life on the planet. More warmth, more veggies and everything else. Morons.
It’s definitely not well-done science, probably raw.
With them, science is rare.
That’s bad for science, but good for beef.
According to European elite sources, and Justin Trudeau, a diet is coming for us – oh no not them, of worm and cricket meat. Nutritious, and tasty they say. Drop me a note, I’m preparing cooking instructions and recipes! Trudeau has already dropped a few million on a grant to an Ontario company developing these products.
“could add nearly 1 degree to global temperatures by 2100″
I could win a billion dollar lottery by 2100 (after all, I have nearly 77 years) but it’s damn unlikely.
How does such nonsense ever get published? Models show what could happen verses what will happen…useless!
Further, so what if GMT increase by 1C in the next 77 years? From where I sit, we would all be much better off, especially if we could phase out the UN, the WEF, and the WHO along the way.
I’m sure the 1 billion starving people worldwide would love any kind of diet.
How about solving that issue before lecturing the rest of us on what we can and can’t eat?
And before any meanie greenie says it, the pastures used for growing cattle are grade 4 or worse so unsuitable for crops.
Where I live the land is flat enough mostly for growing crops but farms are mostly dairy.
The reason is that farms earn more money producing meat and milk.
It is also worth mentioning that most farms near me are not irrigated as there is sufficient rainfall.
I agree. Meat oriented diet options include Atkins, Keto and Carnivore. I used to be a semi vegetarian. Had trouble NOT gaining weight. I had heard of those meat based diets but didn’t take them seriously until watching some YouTube channels which promote this type of diet especially: KenDBerryMD (https://www.youtube.com/@KenDBerryMD/videos) and many others. My wife is fussy about the meat she buys- mostly organic turkey and beef. We no longer fear eathing eggs, real full cream milk and cheese, yogurt. We also eat plenty of vegetables, mostly what we grow or get at the better supermarkets. But dropping the fear of meat and dairy products is very satisfying and I control my weight better. So I’m eating far more fat than every before and my weight is now what I was when graduating from high school in ’67- 165 pounds and 5′ 10″ tall. Being very active all my life is important too.
However, my wife still won’t permit bacon in the house. I asked her to get some and she bought turkey bacon! Dr. Berry does an entire video showing how he cooks up a LOT of bacon which he loves.
So I detest these climatistas who want us to eat like rabbits.
Sustitute Spam for bacon. Slice it very thin and fry it up til the edges get burned. Tastes just like bacon with less grease.
I’m 53 and only a little above my late teens to mid 30s weight. Took about 2 years to lose 26kg, cut out carbs and worked hard on portion size. Plenty of meat and dairy, veges and as little processed stuff as I can get away with. Eat pretty much what I want now, just in moderation. It takes a while but smaller meals, consumed more leisurely also helps you avoid overeating.
Best advice as you age to control weight is CFD. Calorie ..ucking Deficit. It gets harder to work it off so you have to avoid taking it in. Food which helps you feel satisfied is the key.
Also exercise pretty much every day, I’m lucky enough to be able to ride a bike to work and swing past the beach for a swim most days. Incidental exercise is a really easy way to burn energy.
Well, this lie gets trotted out yet again. Yawn.
The progressives will simply implement rules and policies that will drive up the price of meat. Meat (and energy) will be reserved for the wealthy.
All in the name of equity!
Try this source to help anyone concerned about High Carbohydrate foods by checking the GLYCEMIC level of common foods:
University Health News
Glycemic Index Chart: GI Ratings for Hundreds of Foods
The Glycemic Index (GI) chart shows how much and how quickly a carbohydrate-containing food raises your blood-sugar levels. The lower a food is on the GI, the lower the effect on your blood sugar.
The standardized Glycemic Index ranges from 0 to 100. Zero-glycemic foods—those without carbohydrates—include items like meats, fish, and oils. Pure sugar has a glycemic index of 100. Low-glycemic foods have a glycemic load of 55 or lower and include most fruits and vegetables, beans, dairy, and some grains. Foods such as bananas, raisins, and sweet potatoes are considered to be medium-glycemic foods and are ranked between 56 and 69. High-glycemic foods are ranked at 70 and above and include table sugar, ice cream, and other heavily processed foods that are high in calories and fat.
“75% of the warming is from high methane source foods—beef, dairy, rice”.
The Columbia authors do NOT know their radiative physics. True, methane is a GHG in the lab in dry air. BUT NOT in the real world where the atmosphere averages about 2% water vapor, which is much more abundant and completely overlaps the methane IR absorption bands. The new paper is simply wrong from the abstract. Should never have gotten through peer review.
This was an idea that has been demolished after the discovery last year of huge biomass deposits in the earth’s crust that leak vast quantities of methane over millennia. Also if a vegetarian diet was really good for humans, evolution would have ensured we were millennia ago. We are STILL omnivores so that is the scientific proof anyone needs.
So … if we eat more meat, Earth’s temperature rises which helps us to grow more meat. Seems like a win-win to me.
All those grazing lands tend to be grazing lands simply because they are productive for grass but not good enough to grow vegetables. So not eating meat is a waste of productive land.
Meat is how we humans eat grass.
Grazing animals is the most sustainable food production on earth.
There’s a reason my eyes are on the front of my face and not on the side of my head.
I will reuse your words. Brilliant.
“”If that modelling is accurate””
Not a chance
Senior journalist? Mediocre hacktivist
This is another bullshi! study undertaken by people who have no idea how food is produced.
Enteric methane from farmed livestock is not a problem and never will be a problem as all fodder consumed by farmed animals has absorbed CO2 from the atmosphere and the methane emitted during digestion is broken down within 10 years into CO2 and water vapour .
Not one additional atom of carbon is added to the atmosphere over any ten year period .
Between 1999 and 2009 methane atmospheric levels were stable so there was no problem with methane from farmed animals .
Over those 10 years world coal production was also stable at around 4.7 billion tonnes per year. No problem there also .
Since then coal production and combustion has increased to 8 billion tonnes and China now uses 5.3 billion tonnes .
Methane levels have increased since 2010 but at under 2 ppm parts per million in the atmosphere any warming effect is minimal.
Water vapour at 2% = 20,000 ppm dwarfs any future warming from methane .
Grass fed meat and milk production has a very low carbon footprint .
What these clowns who write these articles do not understand is that there are now 8 billion people to be fed in this world and they cannot be fed with subsistence farming .
Half of the worlds food is grown with the nitrogenous fertilizer that is produced with natural gas.
Restrict or ban this fertilizer and wide spread starvation will happen right around the .
“Unless humans rapidly change mass food production systems, including eating less beef and dairy, emissions from the sector could add nearly 1 degree to global temperatures by 2100 …”
It could also add zero degrees. I’ll risk it.
Maybe I’m too unscientific to understand the nuances, but people move from Chicago, where the average annual temperature is 51, to Miami, where it’s 67, all the time without a problem. “Nearly a degree” of global temperature increase just isn’t panic-inducing.
These people cannot accept that we don’t worship them for their brilliant lifestyle choices. They want to force their belief system on the rest of us. We must all share their misery. The fact that the rest of us enjoy eating meat is enough for them to want to outlaw it.
Yes very logical. One doesn’t need to understand the science to appreciate positive changes in our weather, winter to summer! A few degrees of warming is only beneficial to all, so the AGW scare campaign is based on stupidity, never mind the utter falsehood that CO2 is a pollutant, that the EPA is now being asked to reconsider its verdict on.
If the population understood that the whole basis for the climate scare has been scientifically proved to be wrong, they will get very angry with their politicians and the environmental lobby fulminating this madness.
One degree is also a one hundred percent lie.
Everybody knows that the cute non-domesticated animals which would replace the domesticated livestock once that grassland is rewilded don’t emit enteric methane,
Water buffalo, bison, antelopes, gazelles, kangaroos, carribou, etc, are as pure as the driven snow.
And how could anybody even consider the notion that Bambi would be sufficiently crass to do so much as burp, let alone pass wind?
Implementation will be interesting. Easy enough to clear the stock yards but rounding up all the sacred cows of India and the vast African herds have to go, and don’t even think about catching all the kangaroos. Maybe hunter is one of those green jobs they talk about.
Give up beef or 1 degree of warming? I like ribeye and warm weather so pass on that.
This gives a new meaning to green pastures!
Vegan militants won’t be happy until they bring back the good old days of kwashiorkor and rickets in children who can’t get enough protein and calcium in their diets.
Activists in several large states, including California, and Massachusetts, have tripled the price of eggs by taking cheap eggs off the market. The pretext is the “cruelty” of caging chickens, and forcing remaining producers to let them run free instead.
No surprise — production is lagging, and prices have risen.
In fact, chickens in smaller cages experience less stress and thus lay more eggs. “Cage-free” chicken is a misnomer. Virtually all domesticated animals are confined in some way. So called cage-free chickens experience higher stress, and higher mortality rates because chickens harass and kill each other in the proverbial “pecking order.”
The “cruelty” of forcing people to pay $6/dozen instead of $2 is never mentioned. Wait until militants insist that large (AKA efficient) dairy operations are “cruel,” and must be banned. Then you can expect cheese, milk, yogurt, etc. to triple in price, and poor people to give up those high nutrient density foods until their kids are malnourished, or they have to resort to “scientifically-designed” food pellets, or pills. Those quasi-foods won’t be cheap, either. Mark my words.
If do-gooders can triple the price of eggs, they’ll triple the price of meat, dairy, and anything else they get their sights on.
In a free market society people should have the freedom to eat pretty much whatever they like. If the cafeteria at the Columbia Journalism school can get the soon-to-be purveyors of fake news to eat poached worms and fried crickets, good for them. For the rest of us that chow down on T-bones and quiche, isn’t that what freedom is really all about?
Well said tom,
The same dumb regulations were introduced here in new Zealand with the same escalation in the egg prices .
I don’t call them do -gooders when they are really wreckers.
The anti farming retards will cause so much misery and hunger forcing the cost of food up and reducing the range of foods available .
I am quite certain that those that are pushing this anti farming nonsense ,trying to blame food production as a cause of global warming have a long game in mind which is communism when we will own nothing and according to them we will be happy .
They are just starting this vegan push in Australia and have learnt nothing from similar stupid ideas pushed by greenies elsewhere, hopefully the conservatives in NZ will regain power and get rid of Jacinta’s stupid climate mitigation pogroms for good. It’s time the sensible centre ground of public opinion was heard on climate and not the elitist imposed UN climatology with their alternate ‘power’ agenda.
Alpha-gal syndrome is a medical condition that causes severe allergic reactions after eating red meat. Alpha-gal is spread through tick bites. There is no treatment except.to stop eating red meat. Is this natural evolution at work or enviro-terrorism?
Probably a side effect of banning effective pesticides…
There are two classes of people I don’t take advice or direction from, journalists and academics. These people are mind numbingly indoctrinated, they desperately need help. CO2 is not the control knob for earth’s climate nor is methane. Pay attention! We are not in a climate crisis. Pay attention! Climate computer models do not work. Pay attention! Earth is not going to reach a tipping point. Pay attention! There is no reason for these people to act so stupid, they get paid to not be stupid.
Well said Bob,
Climate change is being used by the UN and the WEF to try and change the world economic and political system .
Global warming is a tool that is being used to scare people so that they will let these autocrats take over the world and impose a communist system upon us .
They believe that the population in all countries will vote for this when people start believing that they are going to be saved from runaway warming .
Cows eat grass. I eat cows. I’m a vegetarian!
I am a vegan between meals.
I’ve made this comment before, but I do not understand where the extra CO2 comes from as part of of a meat diet that would cause a temperature increase.
We, and what we eat, are part of a carbon cycle. Cows eat grass, fart, add CO2/methane to the atmosphere, which later is taken up by grass as it grows. Basically, the cycle is completed. What carbon we have in our bodies and the bodies of cows, when we die, is taken up by mother Earth and will be used as part of another carbon cycle.
I just don’t see where the angst is coming from.
Well, it’s totally bogus. Imagine North America before Europeans came here – millions upon millions of bison roamed the western plains. And that long ago, most of Africa’s savannahs were chock full of medium and large ungulates (far more than there is now). So apparently these idiots assume those animals never belched or farted….not ever! No methane, no CO2…no emissions of any kind. Unlike domestic livestock, which are of course descended from wild cattle, sheep, goats and pigs. Yeah, right….
I thought that if we all switched to electric vehicles and limited our air travel to one flight annually that would be enough to arrest global warming. Now the alarmists want us to swear off meat, so what’s next: stop warming our homes and businesses in winter and cooling them in summer? How about convincing China and India to swear off fossil fuels? The reality is that none of this is going to happen except to generate a multitude of horselaughs.
When you peel my cold dead fingers off my cheeseburger, vegan boy.
Climate Science: the playground where children who want to be scientists when they grow up get to use computer simulators and pretend to be doing real experiments.
I know it’s a bit complicated here, but would you have a COVID vaccine shot if the drug company serving it up produced it based on a computer model of vaccines, without any empirical evidence that it was safe or it worked?
Yet we’re transitioning away from reliable energy based on the baloney (vegetarian baloney, which is made from bamboo, lotus blossoms and recycled newsprint) eliminating from these computer simulations.
Plants and animals evolved to depend on each other. Get rid of animals and the plants die. That’s where desertification comes from.
It’s caused by disruption of the evolved patterns of migratory herd animals grazing, fertilizing the soil, and moving on. To undo desertification we have to manage livestock in a way that replicates the grazing patterns of natural herds.
It’s easy to do, and really only requires a market for the meat that this combined animal and land husbandry produces. Anyone who actually loves animals should “dig right in” to this solution.
Bug eaters like Bill Gates and Klaus Schwab hate humans (repeating endlessly that they want to get rid of 95% of us), and they hate animals.
If they liked animals they would pay extra for them to live well (grazing “free range” like natural herd animals). Instead they advocate vegetarianism, which means the animals never live at all.
They are bug people, with bug brains, seeking to remove the competing mammalian higher life forms so that they can rule bug planet. At least, that’s what Occam’s razor says, haha.
That explains Microsoft products, then.
I am flabbergasted that the meat and dairy industries in the US have not risen to fight this existential threat. After our “betters” giving the world an epidemic of type II diabetes the logo writes itself….
“beef. real food for whole people”
IPCC FAR (1990) ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf
Based on current model results, we predict:
• under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A)
emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of
global mean temperature during the next century of
about 0 3°C per decade (with an uncertainty range of
0 2°C to 0 5°C per decade), this is greater than that
seen over the past 10,000 years This will result in a
likely increase in global mean temperature of about
1°C above the present value by 2025 and VC before
the end of the next century The rise will not be
steady because of the influence of other factors
(in Dec 2020, we are ~0.4C above 1990)
Nice list of failed predictions with proof:
2022 Same Shit, Different Year: 55 Years Of Failed Eco-pocalyptic Predictions
First they wanted just our hydrocarbon fuels. Now they want the best part of our food.
But what they really want is for about 7.5 billion of us to stop breathing.
Hang on. According to https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature :
So it’s already too late. The climate crazies have lost, and the world has not burned up. Somebody should tell them.
How can such self evident lies be published? CH4 is irrelevant, the earth produces little energy at its absorption frequency, Wiens law, and what there is is saturated by water vapour.
Plus CH4 breaks down quickly
At the same time cows sequester CO2 in the soil with their manure, and generate food that does not need ploughing, pesticides, fertilisers, and all the associated oil and steel and manufacturing associated with that.
Cows have been farmed for 10,000 years! It is THAT sustainable, and THAT un-dependent on technology, you can literally produce beef and dairy with stone age tools!
This is not a “study” or legitimate research. ALL of the authors work for the Environmental Defense Fund.
It is just “sciency” sounding opinion written by activists to promote the death wish odd CAGW dystopians. Another example of “pal” review.
Global food consumption alone could boost warming by almost 1 degree by the end of this century
Everyone has to stop eating to save the planet!
I did an informal of 5 young women age 19-21 who stated they would still have children regardless of having to eat insects or not. Most said they would like 2-4 kids. My survey sample is not representative… all Church members. Most said they would grow they own beans (much methane there) meat and eggs, ( rabbits in the basement if they had to) LOL
A propaganda attack on food is lame, Getting and having a life is so much better than all the crap in the news. Even the rad leaners are tiring of non-stop red herring BS.
The Propagandists will have to find more funding and up their game if they think they can sustain a 1.3 fertility rate in the US. People have jobs and the economy is smoking hot. Wall-Street wants recession t drive down the interest rate to zero….ain’t happening.
People had jobs and babies in the 70-80’s during high inflection. A hot labor market means babies… meat or no meat.
1.3 acre, 1 Steer=440 lbs of beef, 40 chickens,600 eggs and 700 quarts of goat milk. This can be land that crops cannot be grown on. There is plenty of marginal, hillside land….. and you can put pigs in the woods. The problem today is, no one wants to do the work and the knowledge and skill has been lost…and the will. People are dependent on the global food market. There is no reason folks can’t do it themselves with some trial and error or to partner with people who have the knowledge. The more the American food market goes side ways, the more coopetition for the supermarket, the lower prices and better quality there will be.
And if 10-20% of the meat is grown locally on land by families, the more lame articles like this one post will become.
I am waiting to see more cattle and goats on the hillsides in PA…. when I start to see them more and more and I will know the lame propagandist have already lost the game.