From NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
By Paul Homewood
https://insideevs.com/news/629901/uk-plugin-car-sales-december2022/
EV sales are have been steadily rising in the last few years. Last year, BEV (Battery Only) registrations totalled 267,000, 16% of all cars, 77,000 up on 2021, (the graph also includes hybrids).
Nevertheless at that rate of increase, BEV sales will only be about 900,000 come 2030, around half of all sales.
But is this increase sustainable? If we look away from the overall numbers, and zoom in on which models are being sold, we get a much changed picture:
https://insideevs.com/news/629901/uk-plugin-car-sales-december2022/
The Teslas that account for a fifth of all BEV sales cost £44,990 and £42,990 respectively, based on RRP. The Niro and ID.3 are only marginally cheaper at £36795 and £39,254, and the Polestar , BMW and Audi are dearer than the Tesla.
Only two cars on the list come in at under £30,000 – the Leaf and Mini at £28,995 and £29,000, and these only account for 6% of EV sales. This Top 10 list accounts for nearly half of all BEV sales.
Quite simply, most of the cars on the list are totally unaffordable for the vast majority of drivers, as arguably are the Leaf and electric Mini. BEVs have not yet managed to break into the mass market.
A look at the Best Sellers list shows where the market lies:
https://insideevs.com/news/629901/uk-plugin-car-sales-december2022/
Ignoring the Tesla, the dearest car on the list is the Kuga, priced at £30,755. The Qashqai and Corsa retail at £26,405 and £18,065 respectively. There is absolutely no sign at the moment that owners of any of these cars are going to replace them with an EV. Part of the reason is, of course, the cost. But a major factor is also the impracticability of BEVs for most drivers,
The sort of driver who can afford 50 grand for an Audi Q4 will very likely have a second car in the garage for longer trips.
The simple reality is that there is only limited demand for the upmarket cars currently dominating the EV sector; and many of these sales are for company cars, bought mainly for tax reasons.
Until BEVs can break into the mass market sector, it is hard to see how they can ever be more than a niche product. (At least, that is, until proper cars are banned!)
Maybe people don’t like to spend twice the price on vehicles that go half as far.
Their obvious answer is the same as their solution for FF energy. Raise Prices. If the prices of ICE vehicles we’re artificially raised, via a Sin Tax, then they would cost easily as much or more than their upscale competition.
Sin Tax Error coming soon to an auto showroom near you
Think I’ll give that one a parse Bryan 🙂
No doubt when EV adoption remains at its peak while ICE cars continue to sell, this will be the next logical step by the warmmongering state(s).
Either way, the message is clear: Auto ownership for the lesser-affluent is soon to be a thing of the past. Get used to mediocre public transit.
That was always the plan but we proles will have to pay for the roads that our betters drive on
“mediocre public transit”
Cattle cars where all the plebes are made to ride together shoulder to shoulder, in the stench of the “homeless”.
But, on the bright side, the chosen few will have a lot more space on the roads for their travels.
Yea, I all for that. I hate traffic. let the Plebes/Wokies ride the bus. Hopefully, the rest of us with real brains can fend off the government climate fools for a few decades and enjoy a little peace on open highways until the Chi-Comms take over the planet and lock us all down. Probably using the Wokie’s own insane climate policies. Based on how younger generations are reacting to the loss of their freedom, it might be baked in the chicken little pie that is so popular now.
“Either way, the message is clear: Auto ownership for the lesser-affluent is soon to be a thing of the past. Get used to mediocre public transit.”
Nailed it in one.
People in major metropolitan centers are already used to it. They can’t afford to buy, run and insure a car. Notwithstanding that the US is a country with much larger distances for people to travel, it is happening.
The great 19th and 20th century experiment with personal mobility is scheduled to end. Except for the wealthy. Get back in your hutches, proles.
Norway, at least, used to do this.
It is possible that the Norwegian government has rethought their BEV-related policies since then (?) …
NB : I copied the attached image file to my local hard disk in March 2021. I can’t remember if the numbers are for Q4-2020 or Q1-2021.
With a little advanced planning, tax can be added to all then removed from bev, so its not a “tax increase”, its a “tax break”
And the scrapping fee is the same, even thought the EV is much less “renewable”, and why no weight tax for the E version when EVs are heavier than ICE cars.
BTW, in the US, due to CAFE standards, ICE car makers buy the mileage credits for TESLA to reduce their MPG of their cars. THAT is why GM, Ford, etc. are making their own electric cars, to cut out Musk, the middle man.
Or people will hold on to their ICE’s longer and patch them up a la Cuba
keep dreaming, they will be banned
Perhaps. But it’s not as simple as that. Sure they can ban selling them (new or used) but confiscating existing ones would also have to happen, and people don’t take kindly to the confiscation of their personal property, In short, the 2020 protests/riots would look mostly peaceful in comparison to the reaction of widescale confiscation of personal property.
Asset forfeiture? What do you suppose father of the country George W. would do if the cops confiscated his surrey because they smelled grog on his breath? Then there’s this.
How positively selfish.
Actually, well paid young ‘professionals’ with a sense of moral superiority just love to pay more for a vehicles, houses, clothes, overseas holidays, meals, wine, coffee and chociolate etc.
What’s more when it comes to EV’s they are only too happy to pay for the sense of moral superiority not to mention the stunning accelleration. I mean 0 to 100 kph in 2 or 3 seconds as you overtake some climate denying fascist dinosaur driving an IC vehicle. Now that is a premium experience in the dominant part of the mind of such people.
Its like paedophile priests believing all children are evil and need some come uppance.
BTW, while I don’t know the numbers for the UK and elsewhere here in Oz a 202 study by our Australian Bureau of Statistics, i.e. the national body, revealed that the average daily travel for cars and other light vehicles exc motprcycles was….. about 30 km. And that is with our very low density cities, vast tracks or rural areas let alone the outback distances.
On that basis a PHEV with say 50-60 km range would do the vas majority of daily use on its basic charge and be able to be charged anywhere with normal single phase AC outlet.
Given that it is the urban travel that chews up the most fuel and emits the most per km by about 50% more than rural travel, the emissions saving could well be in the order of 90% or more using a cheper technology with options for diesel, synthec diesel, petrol or LPG and maybe down the track hydrogen.
But no, it is the moral hight ground that must be achieved to be an influencer these days and to heck with reality and practicality let alone flow on benefits.
The population of “well paid YOUNG professionals” is dwindling, with increasing numbers jobless, not wanting to work, and still living with their parents.
You spend twice the price, on a car with very limited range, that takes a long time to “refuel” and for which the infrastructure to refuel it is shaky at best and which has a “fuel tank” that has a definite limited life span and will need to be replaced in 10 years or so, a “repair” that will likely cost close to the replacement cost of the entire car.
The reality is that electric vehicle ownership is not MEANT for normal people, it is only meant to be accessible by the rich and for “official” use (government or corporate). Mass usage of electric vehicles is not viable.
You’ll own nothing and you’ll be happy…. or else!
On French TV, a segment on Sweden: they now buy electric busses:
Conclusion: we need more of those.
And then spent thousands of euros to install a socket in their garage and to get a bigger line from the electric distributor (ENEDIS in France).
You won’t charge at normal speed (not even talking about fast charge) on your regular 6 kVA or 9 kVA home fuse; not if you intend to still have a livable home while charging!
The British government appears to believe the prediction by the Climate Change Committee that electric cars would be the same price as petrol and diesel cars by 2025. Of course, this prediction is just another fantasy from the committee which has no chance of coming true.
The fall in the cost of batteries over the last decade was driven entirely by improvements in manufacturing efficiency. However, raw materials now make up 76% of the cost of batteries. Since demand for the raw materials used in batteries is increasing with greater numbers of electric cars, the price of these raw materials will only rise in the future. This guarantees that the cost of batteries will rise in the future, not fall. This has become very obvious in the last year with battery prices soaring.
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/breaking-down-the-cost-of-an-ev-battery-cell/
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/28/ev-makers-face-cash-squeeze-amid-soaring-battery-production-costs.html
They could be though not by lowering the price of EVs into the affordable range of current ICE pricing but rather by increasing the prices of ICEs to match or overtop EV pricing.
Bryan, don’t give them any ideas like this. Of course, some greens have been saying for years that far too many people have cars in the first place. They would prefer it if only the elite (i.e. them) have cars at all.
Too late.
Please scroll up to the first top-level post (by “Scissor”) …
Bill, unfortunately it’s already too late to not give them ideas like this.
I would just love it if the BBC could ask every climate bedwetter at a protest how they got there. Was it on foot, bicycle, or public transport from surrounding homes?
We all know the answer.
The Corvette E-Ray, which is essentially a hybrid, has a 6.2 L V-8 engine and 160 HP electric motor. Best of both world’s expensive and still a gas hog.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a42487697/2024-chevrolet-corvette-e-ray-revealed/
Sweet ride!
I’m interested in why nobody has attempted a gasoline-electric drive train yet, where a gas engine drives a generator and electric motors turn the wheels, thereby melding the advantages of ICE range and “instant on” torque of ev’s WITHOUT the need for the dead weight and fire dangers of massive and expensive battery packs.
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
The original (2000) Insight, 70mpg, motor charging and regen braking for a small battery provides for speed changes, motor drives vehicle at cruise. By running the motor for steady state, you avoid the dual conversion losses (motion to electricity to motion) of an electric only drive train, and the small “peaking” battery puts less weight and volume in the vehicle.
So what happened to it that it isn’t in production now? Too complicated?
Railway diesel-electric locomotives do this so as to avoid having to use a torque-converter to directly couple the engine to the driving wheels. To get a heavy train moving it is more efficient and loads less heat into the torque converter to use the diesel to generate electricity for traction motors which develop very high starting torque before they even start to move which an internal combustion engine of course cannot do. (Also you get dynamic braking down long hills by letting the wheels drive the motors as generators and dissipate the electricity through large resistance heaters on the roof.)
For light passenger vehicles, ordinary torque converters (or manual clutches) work fine to use the internal combustion engine straight off. No need to mess with electric motors at all (except for accessories.)
Battery electric vehicles are a solution looking for a problem. If it weren’t for decarbonization fever, no one would give them a second look. The value of regenerative braking, to save the lives of brake pads, is a plus if you have to use an EV anyway, but the benefits are not worth the cost if that was the only reason.
Nissan already have but I believe they haven’t managed to beat Toyota’s Hybrid Synergy Drive for fuel economy-
e-POWER & e-4ORCE l Nissan Brand l Nissan Australia
Seems like California decided that even a big tax on ICE cars wouldn’t help EVs displace them, since they resorted to an outright ban.
Considering that China, has bought the rights to Bolivia’s lithium source. Prices will get hiked. The only solution, would be to find alternatives to lithium. Which I believe Tesla has done. But that will impact on range etc.
Governments are attempting legislation of “no more ICE sales” after 2035. When this becomes an election issue, the goalposts will move.
This only proves that the insanity level of politicians has no limits.
If they don’t the US will end up looking like Cuba, with lots of “vintage” cars being kept on the road.
What is the defining expected cost vs time difference between bevs and flatscreen tv?
I like that: “the committee which has no chance of coming true”.
So far, the EV era has been marked by AWOL consumer information on operating cost, quality issues, repair issues, charging issues, vehicle life, and grid issues. Is this a symptom of advocacy-driven regulatory agencies looking the other way? A test will come if EV sales slow and the consumer information silence stays in place to revive the segment. After all, EV buyers that can afford vehicles at a 50% markup will not be very loud and informative about purchases gone bad that made them look stupid–they simply move on to the next toy.
The main issue they are AWOL on is REAL WORLD RANGE. Which is GUARANTEED to be a major source of “buyers remorse” for the suck..er “early adopters.”
Yes
The main driver of EV sales in the U.K. in the past year has been the fact that high earners now get a huge income tax reduction on their ‘perk’ company car if it is an EV.
This makes it a no brainer to choose an EV and it is usually a beast with a max sized battery. It will be used by the Wife for school runs and shopping whilst hauling a ton of battery and contributing to urban tyre particulate pollution. There will always be two cars in the family so the suitability of the EV for serious motoring will be irrelevant.
There is no limit to the net zero lunacy in the U.K.
In the U.S., the main issue is garage space and street parking rules. Otherwise, there would be four cars, an RV, and a trailer.
Not an issue in my subdivision. One SUV,, one (not so mini) mini van, one full size PU, one trailer, one sports car, and one Motor Home at my house.
A house selling point is having RV parking and a 50 amp RV pedestal.
Gosh. Do you walk at all?
The UK needs a government that will implement Brexit. For example, the land border between the UK and the EU is primarily the border between Northern and Southern Ireland. Until they get that right they are unlikely to get anywhere. Reports are that the UK government is negotiating with the EU over this which simply gives the EU the power to repeatedly say ‘No’. If Brexit doesn’t get implemented properly, then the UK people need to change government until it does. If Britain is not freed from EU regulation, then it is unlikely to free itself from the ‘climate’ nonsense.
Mike,
I would love to know what your solution to the Northern Ireland situation is? Under the Good Friday agreement there is to be no hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Thus Boris Johnson agreed that there would be a customs barrier down the Irish Sea. Which has annoyed the nationalists.
So you have the choice between violating the Good Friday agreements, leading to increased violence in Northern Ireland and the isolation of the UK from the rest of Europe and the US. Or you can have a border in the Irish sea effectively separating Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK. Or you can maintain alignment with the EU on trade standards which negates the whole point of Brexit.
Which option are you going for? Or do you have a magical solution that can keep the peace in Northern Ireland, not annoy the nationalists or the EU and lets the UK diverge from the EU on trade standards?
My two cents. Tell Ireland and the EU that you aren’t putting a customs barrier between NI and Britain. If they want to put a customs barrier between the North and South, it’s up to them. If not, then both sides will live with the growth in trade through Belfast.
PS, yes this will annoy the bureaucrats of the EU. That’s a feature, not a bug.
And what is the justification for that? The signed trade treaty between the EU and the UK specifically mentioned a customs barrier in the Irish sea and the UK said that it would agree to that and that any disagreements would be referred to the European Court. Deciding less than a year after signing an international treaty that you don’t like it is no way to run a country.
It’s a treaty with an immoral entity, a bully, and changing course is absolutely a way to run a country.
The UK saying “we don’t care about the rule of law WRT the EU” is a positive for international trust.
This is how it would work: For every commercial vehicle crossing the border, its cargo is pre-recorded online and any duty is paid. NPR surveillance at or near the border completes the record. Authorities who suspect anyone of cheating can pick them up anywhere in the UK. Any private citizen who needs to pay duty can use the same system.
Better systems may be possible, but this is a baseline to start from. It’s up to the EU to implement a similar system on the southern side of the border. If the EU chooses to put in a hard border, the UK can hardly be blamed for that.
So you solution to a trade dispute is to set up a system of nation wide surveillance automatically tracking everyone who might come close to the border. Or do you believe that people in the UK are just so honest that it is a non issue? Are there any examples of a land border anywhere that is policed by electronic means with no physical checks anywhere?
The UK and Ireland signed the Good Friday accords to put an end to decades of terrorist violence and one of the principles of that was that there would be no hard border in Ireland. Upholding this has meant that terrorist violence in the UK has been reduced dramatically and that people in NI have been able to live in peace for the last 20 years.
You asked me for a solution and I provided one. The entire UK is a “system of nation wide surveillance automatically tracking everyone” – haven’t you noticed how many cameras there are in the UK? The cameras I propose are only at the border, and are surely already in place, they just need some UK-EU border-specific software to be added.
You ask “Are there any examples of a land border anywhere that is policed by electronic means with no physical checks anywhere?“. The answer is Yes. There are unattended crossings between Norway and Sweden. There may well be others.
The global fleet of road vehicles in 2022 numbered about 1.446 billion, that’s with a “B”.
Of this huge global fleet, only 12 million were electric vehicles (EV) in 2021. Thus, less than one percent of the worldwide road vehicle fleet were EVs.
Just wait. “Stupidity knows no bounds.”
True, but bank accounts do.
Thanks. Your point should be included in the main post.
I think mileages for second hand EVs are rather low for age.
Valid battery capacity/reliability tests are difficult.
Yes, since they’re quite useless. Either someone offloading the 2nd or 3rd or 4th vehicle “toy” or someone who was foolish enough to buy one as an only car and was very unhappy with the imposed limitations.
Don’t brand new Tesla hide and suppress some battery capacity?
That way they can work longer.
Quite a few around my part of South London have now got an EV and they range from a Mini right up to huge SUVs that look more like a sports shoe than a car.
But this is where the affluent Labour voter lives – for the most part – and man, do they have some self-loathing issues.
EVs are all about middle-class upwardsness. Consider the white van man who lives in a tower block. No chance of home charging there – even if he could afford the vehicle.
This Audi advert is currently running and it’s just about as far removed from the common man as you can get
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_inV1Y3F90s
EV drivers are either very ignorant or they have no conscience.
The experimenter in me wonders what would happen if one were to throw a bunch of metallic (e.g., iron, copper or aluminum) filings into a charging port. Just a thought experiment.
Do not make this a TikTok challenge.
Stealing recharge cables – now, there’s a TikTok challenge.
Circuit breaker should trip before damage occurred. Circuit breakers can have a near instant trip for a ‘bolted fault’ scenario. At least that’s how this Electrical Engineer would design it.
Wow, I did not even consider how EV charging would be different for apartment dwellers. A complicated scheme that invites game theory would be needed.
Well the classic comparison in Oz is the Chinese MG ZSEV at $51,760 AUD drive away in comparison to it’s cheapest petrol equivalent the MG ZS at $23,690 drive away. Bearing in mind many will be paying 8-9% interest on their car loans and any difference in electricity cost with cheap home charging (ie not expensive public DC charging) and petrol will be smashed before the higher depreciation rate.
If China can’t do better with that purchase price disparity then who the Hell can? That’s before any range and public charging availability/time considerations with long distance travel. Elon clearly has the lux EV market appeal sussed but I reckon he has too much factory capacity for the long term market segment but so far so good. Discounting lux is a bit of a double edged sword in that regard as exclusivity is a feel kinda thingy.
The only sane way to have a battery car is via lease—when the lease period is up, the degraded battery becomes someone else’s problem
Even that’s not sane, unless it’s just going to sit in the driveway looking “virtuous.”
Preferably a significant distance from the garage or the house.
Point made.
All tech product prices have found their level. If it is possible, it will happen.
I’d also be wary of second-hand BEVs. As, has been well documented, overcharging the battery beyond 80%, or allowing to go below 20%, shortens the battery life. So does, I believe, fast charging (and acceleration). Hull, have started to implement fast chargers around the city, and of course there will be others in many other locations.
So how many drivers, not wishing to trickle charge the battery at a charge point for several hours, will opt for the fast charge every time?
Most motorists know little about proper maintenance schedules, so would it be unreasonable to assume, they would mistreat their batteries the same?
I’ve heard that on some BEV, chat sites, there have been complaints about batteries failing prematurely, and when referred back to manufacturers, the response has been driver abuse.
I can just see the car on the forecourt “One careful Lady owner, battery only flattened 200 times”
Yes. The faster you charge the battery, the hotter it gets, which proportionately reduces its lifespan.
“Nevertheless at that rate of increase, BEV sales will only be about 900,000 come 2030, around half of all sales.”
I think even less. First, it’s the “well off” who are buying them- not the six pack Joe, like me! But once all the well off have one- are the rest of us going to get one? I suspect a lot of us will keep our ICE vehicles going for a long, long time- like the way the Cubans keep their cars from the ’50s going. Some mechanics will specialize in ICE vehicles and do well keeping them running. Some machine shops will keep making spare parts.
“keep our ICE vehicles going for a long, long time”
I’m in a very fortunate position I’m still shy of 10k on the clock. I intend to keep this baby going as long as I can. As we get nearer to the cut-off date I think prices for ice cars – first or second-hand – will do some surprising things.
I think the cut-off date for no more ICE cars will be quietly forgotten. Manufacturers will be pissed that they put effort into designed EVs that now no one will buy because they don’t have to. But the losses will be folded into the price of the millions and millions of ICE cars they will continue to sell. It’s only a competitive problem if you spent all that R&D money while your competitors gambled on not..
” the Cubans keep their cars from the ’50s going.”
Those cars usually have newer powertrains, sometimes diesel engines, not the original powertrains. And Cuban mechanics must be very skilled at hand building parts when they are not available from a parts warehouse.
I think this video is from Pakistan. Amazing what people can do in need.
No road salt in Cuba, either.
“six pack Joe” in America is still filthy rich outside the Western world.
sure, but that’s irrelvant to the fact that 6 pack Joes think EVs are for sissies 🙂
The State can so easily counter that by making fuel difficult or impossible to obtain.
I don’t think The State has the guts compared to the vast majority of people who don’t want EVs forced on us- at least I think Americans won’t tolerate it- not sure of other nations so The State might try but it won’t be “so easy”.
I’m more of a flat-pack Joe
I’ll be hanging on to my ICE until I can no longer drive or afford the fuel, whichever comes first
I’m 73 and have a Toyota Tacoma I bought new in ’04. It has 170K miles and it’ll be my last truck. I take good care of it and even did my own body work on it. I know people who have some with over 300K. So I should be good until I’m 90. 🙂
Don’t worry, government policies will insure that EVs stick around regardless of the cost.
But, of course, only for the elite.
Remember when the first electric vehicle tax credits began in the USA? A lot of golfers bought electric golf carts basically for free. Now you would have to lie a little, but that seems to be acceptable to the current administration. Go for it.
A little!?
Of course. When you have to lie, then logically you only lie a little.
In my humble opinion, EVs will eventually replace almost all ICE cars and trucks.
Tesla will be announcing an economy model next month at around $25,000, and this will greatly increase the speed of EVs replacing ICE cars.
Tesla will also be announcing new gigafactory factories to be built in: South Korea, Mexico, Canada, Indonesia, another one in the U.S., and another one in China in the near future.
Tesla will continue to be the industry leader because of their revolutionary gigapress forge technology which greatly increases: production efficiency, structural strength, production speed, productivity, and greatly reduces production costs.
Tesla also has the highest gross and net profit margins (30%/15% respectively) of any other EV maker (most others are losing money on their EV cars) because of their extensive use of robotics (90%), no UAW headaches (pensions liabilities, strikes, union demands against robotics, etc.,), fewer parts, fewer production steps, shared parts between all models, superior battery/software/EV engine technology, and efficient on-line sales system.
In my humble opinion, I strongly suggest looking at TSLA stock at its current Twitter-related discount price.
Cheers!
Yes – and I can sell you the Brooklyn bridge at a knock-down price.
I own 25% of the Brooklyn Bridge in my Get Rich Quick Portfolio, which is going up, up, up — now at $129. I lived in Brooklyn for 1.5 years, so got a good deal.
I also invested in rain forests and wetlands, although the wife insists they are jungles and swamps. Included in my $129 net worthl.
“In my humble opinion, EVs will eventually replace almost all ICE cars and trucks.”
Sadly, your humble opinion is completely detached from reality.
The president of Toyota Motors (Akio Toyoda) resigned a few weeks ago for failing to realize EVs will soon replace ICE cars, and for the terrible line of EVs they initially developed for the EV market.
If Mr.Toyoda realizes EVs are the future, I hardly think I’m “completely detached from reality.”
He’s becoming chairman of the board. We’ll see what happens.
Is it wise to attribute future clear vision to past poor understanding?
Maybe not. Be banning ICE cars and trucks, there will be no competition for EVs. Perhaps a 75% reduction in number of vehicles, but still a replacement in terms of vehicle type.
The world moves on diesel.
banning ICE cars will get the same welcome, in America, as an attempt to ban guns
Sell short after that pump and dump comment !
Are you related to Elon Musk?
TSLA stock is up 100% over the past 3 weeks.
Watch what happens to TSLA stock after they formally announce their $25,000 new Tesla model next month.
Please reconsider shorting TSLA at its current low valuation of $200/share..
Tesla announced a new $25000 car over two years ago. Nothing has come to pass. With the spiralling cost of electric car batteries, it looks increasingly unlikely.
https://electrek.co/2021/01/08/tesla-25000-electric-car-coming-sooner-than-we-thought/
Bill-san:
Musk is expected to announce the new Tesla $25,000 new model on March 1st:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/musk-says-teslas-master-plan-3-coming-on-investor-day–heres-what-to-expect-155610599.html
Sadly, Elon Musk has a long history of announcing things that never actually happen. I hope that you have not bought any shares in Tesla.
Buying shares of TSLA isn’t necessarily always a bad deal, as long as you managed to buy at a low and sell at a high. There are plenty of people who’ve made good money owning and selling TSLA shares. True believers of the Musk girft, like Samurai-san on the other hand, would buy at the peak and hold all the way down to the bottom, long after everyone else has reaped the profits.
And it will likely go the way of the old Tesla $25,000 model announced over two years ago, and of many other things Musk promised but failed to deliver on. Endless delays and failure to live up to promises being a recurring theme of the Musk grift. Why are you so sure that “this time will be different”?
It’s like fusion energy and the climate emergency — always coming but they never arrive.
Not quite, you’re exaggerating.
The low on Jan 27 was about $127. The recent high was $207 on Feb 9. It’s trading about $199 at this moment.
Scissors-san:
TSLA hit its low of $101.84 during inter-day trading on January 03 and closed at $108 that day…
It hit $202 today on a DJIA down day.
My estimate is TSLA will hit $2,000/share (pre-split) by 2030 given Tesla’s gigafactory expansion plans, $25,000 new model, semi and cyber truck sales starting this year, new battery developments, etc.
According to my calendar, 3 weeks ago was January 24 and January 3 was 6 weeks ago.
Scissor-san:
Today, TSLA skyrocketed another $14.61/share (7.51%) to $209.25/share on a DJIA down day (-156.66 points).
After hours trading is up another $2.25/share..
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/TSLA:NASDAQ
Why are you telling us all this? Why don’t you keep it a secret and get rich all by your lonesome.
“TSLA hit its low of $101.84 during inter-day trading on January 03”
Your previous statement (made on Feb 14th) was:
“TSLA stock is up 100% over the past 3 weeks”
Jan 03 is well outside the three week window you were claiming. 3 weeks ago the price of TSLA stock was around $143/share, a 100% increase would put it at $286!!!! As of Feb 14th, by your own admission in the comment “Today, TSLA skyrocketed…to $209.25/share” it’s fallen short of your 100% in 3 weeks claim. Don’t get me wrong, from $143 to $209 is a nice increase (Kudos to any traders who profited from it) but it’s not 100%, not even close.
Face it, you made a claim that the facts (and math) don’t match.
The $25,000 EV will probably be here when fusion energy arrives.
If you own a stock that went up 100% in three weeks, you should place a stop loss order to preserve the gains, IMHO.
Also, Tesla stock fell from $384.29 to $101.81 in the past 52 weeks, a decline of 73.5%, which you conveniently forgot to mention.
Also, Elon Musk has hurt his reputation as a “god” among leftists by favoring free speech at Twitter, which leftists hate. That should affect future car sales.
Tesla three months in service and three years in service data, per J.D. Power surveys, reveals nearly the worst initial quality and long term dependability in the industry.
R. Greene
Finance MBA, Stern School of Business at New York University
Author of the for-profit ECONOMIC LOGIC financial newsletter for 43 years, from 1977 to 2020
Richard-san:
Almost all of the TSLA stock decline from $385 to $101.84 was due to 24/7 bashing of Musk after his announcement in April of last year of buying Twitter for $44 billion.
Leftists hated Musk for his efforts to save freedom of speech/press and ending their monopoly of Leftist propaganda on Social Media.
it was followed by various attacks by the DOJ, IRS, OSHA, EPA et al on all of Musk’s businesses.
The fall had little to do with Tesla’s financial, earnings and sales results, which were spectacular in 2022…
“The fall had little to do with Tesla’s financial, earnings and sales results,”
Well of course. Tesla’s rise to $385 had very little to do with any of those things either, so that’s only fitting.
I bet it’ll be a very, very tiny tin can of a car. You know, like that car called “smart car”.
A hopped up golf cart with doors.
Good thing about the car in the picture … they don’t have to rent a cart at the course. They can just drive up to the first green.
Low fee index funds
We have a Tesla factory near Berlin, in Brandenburg, ask the people living around.
All oecologic laws are more or less suspended for Tesla, they use water in exorbitant quantities, – start building without the necessary concession.
Tesla’s German gigafactory is in ‘total chaos’ due to staff shortages, report says
A major union in Germany says workers at Tesla’s Berlin factory face unreasonable working hours and fear speaking out
Tesla to search for water in quest to expand German gigafactory
“We know this company. It does what it wants, and it’ll do the same with the water it finds,” said Michael Ganschow, head of local environmental organisation Gruene Liga.
“Water is a public good, and exploration is a public task … this is a red line,” the district administrator of neighbouring region Maerkish-Oderland, told local newspaper Tagesspiegel.
It was a good buy at $109 recently. Still in a technical downtrend though.
Tesla announced a pickup truck in 2019 too.
Simone Giertz did a better job of it though
Cost is probably the smallest of the problems that is restricting EV sales.
Trucks!!!!!! Are you joking?
That economy model is probably a piece of junk. When they sell EVs for 25K that are well made, I’m sure they’ll sell like hot cakes. I think many people will buy EVs but not the majority- at least no in the next few decades. It may be that when fusion finally arrives and is proven to be cheap electricity- very cheap- then EVs will take over. Maybe 50 years.
We should all admire one of the great capitalist entrepreneurs in Elon Musk and his achievements with Tesla. He’s right up there with the tales of similar entrepreneurs that get an honorable mention in this historical tale-
The Man Who Invented the Twentieth Century: Nikola Tesla, Forgotten Genius of Electricity : Lomas, Robert: Amazon.com.au: Books
Full marks for sniffing the political winds and capitalising on the current doomsayer times but he is of course merely riding on the external combustion engine. It remains to be seen if that can be converted to a completely solar and wind powered engine without nuclear energy as some seem so hopeful of. On that score I note Toyota have a longer order book and wait times for the hybrid ICE still.
Also natural competitors are not standing still beating Tesla to the pickup/ute market and lining up for gigapress savings while BYD with their coal fired LFP blade battery have convinced even Tesla they should hedge their bets with sole reliance on NCM battery tech. Meanwhile all that lightweight battery lithium is being bid up and squandered on stationary grid firming proving the fantasy that electrochemical energy storage follows Moore’s Law.
Observa-san:
Wind and Solar are monuments to the stupidly of mankind.
it’ll take a few tragic winter events where wind/solar grids suffer cascading failures leading to massive casualties before these monstrosities are torn down.
I think the future is nuclear, especially Thorium MSRs, which the Chinese expect to have a commercial design by 2030, and have been testing a prototype since September of 2022.
Tesla is constantly improving battery it’s technology and has some of the best engineers addressing the issue.
Tesla will also continue to improve its production efficiency, technological advantages, and business model, as his competitors continue to play catch-up..
“… and has some of the best engineers addressing the issue.”
What, specifically, is the issue?
I’m an engineer too; pretty good at what I do (when I do it). If I were to “address” the issue as well, how much reimbursement would Elon offer me?
Pump and dump.
I’ve posted this before in other threads but it is worth posting again.
Paul Philpott, UK Chief Executive of Kia Motors recently told the Times newspaper (Jan 23rd) that a mass market in affordable electric cars will not happen because of the difficulty of producing them on a viable basis.
He also said Kia had no immediate plans for such a vehicle.
But, but.. car workers were promised increased job security with the EV revolution..
https://www.ft.com/content/d8d97dfb-c912-4b31-8a7c-20a5b541015b
…in China
Job security – Uyghurs in China have job security. The’yre locked in and can’t leave. If they escape, security will hunt them down.
The 1970’s are repeating themselves.
In the 1970’s, American car makers started making smaller more fuel efficient cars that just looked like scaled down large cars. They often were not reliable and some had significant safety issues (the Pinto for example). It was almost as if the small cars were bait to get people to the dealership to up-sell them into bigger more expensive cars. It created an opening for Japanese auto companies to sell small, well made fuel efficient cars that quickly dominated that segment. Once established at the low end, the Japanese started moving upscale and have been very successful.
The EV push has been almost exclusively by American and most European automakers at the top end of the market. (The Chevy Volt may be an exception.) However, the upstart in low cost EV manufacturing is China, who produces 57% of the world’s EV’s. The problem is most acute in Europe where their foray into diesel for reduced carbon emissions left them behind the competition in EV’s and their energy policies have left them completely non-competitive in energy intensive industries. This left EU automakers completely devoid of products for the mass EV market in Europe while Chines companies like BYD and SAIC have purchase European brand names so they can sell in the EU. Consider that today’s announcement that Ford is cutting 3800 engineering jobs in the UK and Germany, mostly in their electric vehicle segment, while BYD is buying European car factories that are shutting down says volumes.
Evs will get a sales boost due to the fact they have low resale value and short lifespans. Unlike a well maintained modern IC that will last twenty years, and indefinitely if you are willing to put in the work to keep it in good shape. They certainly are not going to match Rolls Royce where something like 75% of every one ever made is still on the road.
Teslas have high resale values so far.
Not other EV brands.
Lots and lots of used Tesla inventory in Colorado with prices definitely in a downtrend.
Maybe because Tesla recently cut their new vehicle prices?
Also, the boom in used vehicle prices ended last Fall. Automotive analysts from J.P. Morgan agree that used-car prices have most likely peaked after climbing 43% from February 2020 to September 2022.
“An inside view of electric vehicles from an engineer who was designing them”
After my 27 years in auto industry ended in January 2005. the last engineer I knew inside the company retired late last year. He was an electrical engineer working on a 2026 electric vehicle program. …
My full article, written today, is at the link below:
Honest Climate Science and Energy: An inside view of electric vehicles from an engineer who was designing them
From the Honest Climate Science and Energy link above:
“40% to 60% loss of range in extreme cold weather during northern Minnesota cold weather testing in December
Daily loss of range just sitting in a cold garage, or sitting in a cold parking lot at the airport the winter”
****************
Yup. Living in Wisconsin, these are two of the major hangups I have with EVs in my part of the country. The other is the lack of recharging infrastructure away from home in the places I travel to.
I believe I recall hearing somewhere that the same problem exists for high heat weather such as the summers in the desert southwest, Texas and other parts of the sunbelt.
It’s amazing how these quaint little facts are largely ignored. Orwellian Big Brother doesn’t want us to know about it.
“northern Minnesota cold weather testing” The next generation will live somewhere warmer. From there = no choice. Still there = choice.
I’ve been seeing an ad for Toyota lately that IMO pretty well spells out that very popular manufacturer’s thoughts on EVs. The ad mentions a few models, makes note of the “all electric” models and then launches into the meat of the ad, which is all about hybrids like the Camry. The ad also emphasizes the fact that hybrids still have a gasoline engine, which eliminates the range anxiety of all electrics. In other words, Toyota is responding to consumer wants/needs and pushing hybrids rather than all electric vehicles. And hybrids are proven to work and don’t have all of the issues of fully electric vehicles.
Very few car ads focus only on EVs…..most make mention that they have one or two models (if they even mention EVs at all), and then go into all of the gas powered vehicles that are available.
And then there are quite a few car ads (cars and trucks) that feature roaring engines and people driving along twisting mountain roads. If the roar of an engine wasn’t appealing to consumers I don’t think manufacturers would have so many ads featuring that sound.
The prevalence of the latter type of ads also brings up an issue that is seldom ever mentioned with regards to ICE vs EVs. A good many people (myself included) want to hear the engine roar when they punch the gas pedal. There’s nothing like hearing the thunder of that V-8 Hemi in my Dodge Ram when I hit the gas…. While it’s true a Tesla (and some other EVs) would be able to run the quarter mile quicker, acceleration is only but one of many features people consider when buying a car.
There is a thing called “car culture” that exists in the US, Europe and perhaps other places (I’d have to add Australia to that list, as that’s where the Mad Max movies came from!). It is deeply embedded, and EVs just don’t cut it. Not just consumers, but motor sports (an all electric NASCAR would probably put people to sleep, and worse yet, evacuate the stands if there is a wreck due to a huge, toxic battery fire), car shows, collectors and everything to do with automobiles. Even teenagers who save up to buy an old beater and soup it up….so how do you “soup up” an EV? Gee, maybe a teenage hacker could get into Tesla’s software and make some changes. But seriously, there just isn’t the appeal.
And then there’s Hollywood. Imagine car chases with no sound effects….. OK, maybe you’d still have squealing tires, but no thundering engines. Although the fires would be more epic once they do crash!
So no, it isn’t just practical concerns that will limit EV uptake, but rather the whole car culture that many western countries are deeply steeped in.
Sneaky, appearing to support the “green future”, but hedging their bets 🙂
“right lads, the green revolution is over, pull out those batteries”
A non-plugin hybrid is 100% powered by its fuel via its ICE. At best, the battery-driven part is just a way of improving fuel efficiency.
Range anxiety is not trivial.
I don’t own a car anymore – so was looking at renting a car to visit my mother – who lives in a town about 200 miles away. The major car rental outfits – a Tesla or Polestar was the cheapest car available.
Even though both Polestar and Tesla are rated for 275 miles – I was seriously concerned about both charging after getting there and then charging before returning the rental. The fine print says returning an EV with less than 70% charge would incur the dreaded fuel levy.
There are a profusion of charging stations at her town – but the cost and time to charge were both extremely confusing. It turns out that since she was likely to want to visit a casino, said casino had 4 stations that would allow charging for free – and since she always wants to stay a night that this wouldn’t be an issue.
That just left charging before returning. No free charging in my city – because even the “free” charging would require paying considerable parking costs. Fast chargers would certainly cost.
I finally just went with a car sharing outfit – they are more than cheap enough that the final out of pocket cost is less than the rental cost for the EV even with crazy California gas prices.
And this is for just a pretty short trip. Imagine taking an EV to Las Vegas – which would be 600 miles one way. It would require charging at least twice on each way! I can make the trip one one tank in an Altima or 1 refueling in most other normal sedans.
Here in the UK , I don’t think electric cars are practical for many people as they cost way too much and have limited range . I suspect what will happen is the second hand price of ICE cars will rise and they will be repaired more . I run a 7 yr old 2 litre diesel Skoda and it’s a very nice car and gives me about 40mpg around town and 60mpg on a run 0-60 mph is about 8.5 sec, so it’s more than adequate for normal driving a full tank of fuel gives me approx 450 miles range with a quick fuel stop to re fill . It would be madness for me to buy and electric car , especially as the batteries start to degrade after 7 years and are stupid money to replace .With careful servicing my Skoda should do 200,000 miles a lot longer than EV batteries can do .
Can I add, I have a 3.5T motorhome, I can get 400+ miles on a full tank of diesel. I can’t ever see that being achieved on a BEV.
Also, if they did build such vehicles, there would be a licensing issue, as many drivers are now limited to 3.5T (in the UK and Europe).
I have a 2013 2 litre Skoda Suberb diesel going strong and A rated for economy despite its limo size. A taxi driver I met last week has one from 2015 with 850k km. BEV are toys compared to this.
I highly recommend the following EV reviews that I believe are fair and balanced. Most EV reviews seem like EV cheerleading to me, and it’s not obvious if the EVs were ever driven far enough to need a recharge.
2023 Mercedes-Benz EQS – EPautos – Libertarian Car Talk (ericpetersautos.com)
2023 Mustang Mach e – EPautos – Libertarian Car Talk (ericpetersautos.com)
2023 Ford F-150 Lightning – EPautos – Libertarian Car Talk (ericpetersautos.com)
It is proposed – the step before it is ordered – that ICE vehicles be fitted with particulate traps:
The Trap is Sprung – EPautos – Libertarian Car Talk (ericpetersautos.com)
Lithium battery fires:
For Whom the Lithium Tolls – EPautos – Libertarian Car Talk (ericpetersautos.com)
If you have been thinking about buying an electric vehicle:
If You’ve Been Thinking About Buying an EV . . . – EPautos – Libertarian Car Talk (ericpetersautos.com)
The weight penalty of electric vehicles:
A Weighty Question – EPautos – Libertarian Car Talk (ericpetersautos.com)
Electric vehicle price reductions:
The Electric Wave Cresting? – EPautos – Libertarian Car Talk (ericpetersautos.com)
And yet, Ford, despite losing its shirt last year, is still going whole hog into the EV market.
But they are pulling out of manufacturing in the German and UK EV markets by laying off 3800 Engineers in these countries over the next 3 years. This is where much of Ford’s losses come from.
Ford is now losing money on every Mustang Mach-E they sell…
Tesla returned their pricing to 2020 levels, and are still keeping their 15% net margins given they vastly superior production efficiency, and not having any UAH unions members: no UAW pension liabilities, strikes, union restrictions on robotics, etc,
I’m not an EV fan, but Tesla has the market cap that would enable it financially to acquire Ford, GM, VW and, if stretched, possibly Toyota too. Of course, antitrust laws would not allow that but acquiring a major automaker is certainly a possibility.
Musk has followed in Amazon’s Bezos footsteps, capitalizing on government subsidies and contracts and undercutting competition for their destruction.
Song for you.
https://twitter.com/kylekemper/status/1625556385931862016?s=20&t=4Z_q3phA14y3-2QbHTLq_A
Thanks Scissor. Just a guy doing a job.
EV sales are have been steadily rising in the last few years. Last year, BEV (Battery Only) registrations totalled 267,000, 16% of all cars, 77,000 up on 2021, (the graph also includes hybrids).
Nevertheless at that rate of increase, BEV sales will only be about 900,000 come 2030, around half of all sales.”
new technoloy never follows a simple extrapolation curve
in my history of introducing new technology — 3D graphics, MP3, cell phones.
the following rule could be observed.
then the market will be x million in 5 years.
these digital audio files will replace albums and CDs and transform music publishing , these digital cameras will utter dominate film camera and be everwhere. the land line will be dead.
basically one set of thinkers is destined to be sketical and negative. the other
optimistic unrealistic and imaginative.
ocassionaly there is the rare individual who thinks. “why not reuse a rocket
EVs will destroy ICE. sorry.
best to get ahead of the curve
chevy will have them at all price points
PS i hate Evs would never buy one, but the writing is on the wall
dont be kodak or polaroid and think film will last forever. donr be intel and think that phone market will be small
in short never listen to engineering types about the future
There is no new technology in electric cars.
Eliminate the subsidies and mandates, and electric car sales plummet.
Indeed. Everywhere the subsidies ended, the sales dropped. These aren’t consumer driven demand products. They’re government driven, take away the government subsidies and mandates, and you are left with a niche product that the vast majority of consumers aren’t interested in.
I’d buy into hydrogen FCV, or ICE, But never BEVs. What lets them down is recharging, both on charge rate, and infrastructure. There will never be enough charging points, simply because the grid infrastructure does not, and will never exist. We’re already seeing the example of good ole queueing, theory at work.
New types of products that succeeded in the past did so because they either worked better for purpose or because they had some strong appeal to most people who would use that type of product, not because they were pushed by overlords. EVs don’t seem to fit that pattern in any way.
Great advice, mosh, you dolt.
Got yers yet mosh? You keep avoiding the question.
“never listen to engineering types about the future”
In short, never listen to low-level lits that get employed by climate propaganda companies has a mouth piece. !
Their opinions are IRRELEVANT !
I think EVs will always be too materials-dense to ever be produced in mass-market quantities. An ICE car, you want more range, you build a bigger hollow fuel tank out of sheet metal. An EV car, to get more range you have to stuff in more kilograms of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and other metals that while not exactly rare and precious are expensive to extract and refine in large quantities. I can’t see that reaching the mass market: too much metal that can’t be replaced with cheaper stuff. The metal in an ICE car is nowhere near as exotic and much of it is plastic now. The guts of an EV are a near-solid lump of metals.
“new technology never follows a simple extrapolation curve”
Indeed. sometimes it takes off greatly other times it ends up bombing out into the dustbins of history. It greatly depends on how much the customer base needs/wants the technology. Government mandated technology is not needed or wanted by the customer base, so comparing EVs to technology that filled a need/want of customers (even if the customers didn’t know they needed or wanted it before it was created) is not exactly the best comparison.
“EVs will destroy ICE. sorry.”
They haven’t in the 100+ years the two technologies have existed. Indeed, it was ICE that destroyed EV (Even though EV beat ICE to market). And all the reasons consumers preferred ICE over EV (range, cost, convenience of quick fueling, etc.) haven’t really changed since. The only thing that’s really changed is government putting it’s thumb on the scale with subsidies and mandates.
“in short never listen to engineering types about the future”
Never listen to *anyone* about the future, but most especially drive by lit majors.
“in short never listen to engineering types about the future”
Never listen to *anyone* about the future, but most especially drive by lit majors.
I agree, John. But I still don’t get the original statement: If not “engineering types”, then who? Politicians? Activists? Witches? Astrologers? Oracles?
I’ll trust the engineer’s assessments long before any of the others.
A look at the Best Sellers list shows where the market lies:
typical rear view mirror driving
the best seller list does NOT show where the market lies or where it will go. never has, never will.
typical engineer mistake. past sales figures never are a good guide to growth in emerging technology. for one thing sales figures cant show you market misses.
suppose you have 0 sales at 10,000 dollars, and inventory of 100K you tried to sell at 10K but no buyers
spoose you had 100K sales at $100000 and no inventory? no suppos your inventory is
1 million
in othr words your best seller and be horrible predictor sure it sold the most but also has the
highest inventory. and the 0 unit seller could b your best opportunity.
get back to your slide rule dilbert. this decision requires guesswork, intuition, and imagination, not extrapolation of the past
because the future will not be like the past. youll have to learn to build BeV
https://insideevs.com/news/534027/electric-car-prices-us-20210918/
They are already being built about as well as they can be built.
“They are already being built about as well as they can be built.”
Reality is not your friend is it MIUMark. EV Tech is flying ahead by the day as is battery development. But you don’t read that stuff… only the nonsense the Anti EV brigade put out. Then one day you will look up and there will be no ICE cars on the road and you will weep about how unfair all the subsidies were (all the time excusing the subsidies of oil). By then the dictionary will have a new definition for hypocrite and it will start with MarkW….
No TDS today?
No, Trump doing the heavy lifting on his own at the moment.
“But you don’t read that stuff…”
That’s because its like everything else you fantasize….
Unsupportable.
Wrong…. again.
Yes, you are, glad to see you admit it for once 😉
I’m 67 years old. I just bought a cherry 1997 Ram 2500 with an 8 liter V-10 engine that has over 138,00 miles on it and can haul and has hauled a 45 foot fifth wheel over a great deal of this great country.
Today I was driving a Frightliner with over 750,000 miles on it pulling a load of nearly 30,000 lb. over 500 miles and I started out with less than 3/4 fuel and when I pulled into the yard I put 106 gallons of diesel in it and parked it and it is ready to go and could pull 45,000 lb. up and down the hills of the PA turnpike and get me 700 miles and still have another 500 miles of range in it when I stopped to take my break after 11 hours of driving.
No EV can come close to the performance of either of those vehicles and never will!
The power to weight ratio and endurance simply is not there and never will be.
Rah,
I get EV ‘s are not good at towing, but they have other virtues. I drive a Tesla model 3 long range. It does 0-60 in under 4 seconds (and it will perform like that till the day it dies without any tuning). It is whisper quiet and baby’s bottom smooth. It costs about $2US in electricity to do 100 miles. No ICE car can do that and they never will. They are too inefficient. I’ve owned it for a year and a half and I’ve had to do nothing to it with regard to maintenance because apart from tyres there is none. It’s a pity many here are too blind to see it…. oh well, you can lead a horse to water….
Think that Tesla will still be going strong when it has 138,000+ miles on it? I have no doubt that 16 year old pickup will out last me and be the last pickup truck I’ll ever need.
And BTW, have you used that Tesla for truly cross country trips? And if so, did you have to take a less efficient route to make sure you would hit charging stations when needed?
I can fill the 30 gallon tank in the pickup or pump 220 gallons into the big truck in 15 minutes or less. How long does it take to charge that Tesla when its battery is nearly dead?
I have driven our Toyota FJ cruiser straight through form Driggs, ID to Anderson, IN with only bathroom and fuel stops. A distance almost 1,700 miles the way I went. It took less than 27 hours. Also drove that same vehicle straight through from Daytona Beach, FL to Anderson, IN. It took less than 16 hours.
You aren’t going to come close to doing anything like that in your Tesla.
Think that Tesla will still be going strong when it has 138,000+ miles on it?
I do….. comfortably(in every sense of the word) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxCURT2NBpI
https://motorandwheels.com/how-long-do-teslas-last-miles-years/#:~:text=The%20expectation%20is%20the%20vehicle,well%20the%20vehicle%20is%20maintained.
https://enginepatrol.com/how-long-tesla-model-3-last/
And BTW, have you used that Tesla for truly cross country trips?
400 mile trips are about my limit. 1 stop for a 50 minute charge and lunch.
I have driven our Toyota FJ cruiser straight through form Driggs, ID to Anderson, IN with only bathroom and fuel stops. A distance almost 1,700 miles the way I went. It took less than 27 hours.
If you re making the point that ICE cars can go longer distances at this point in time, then I agree with you. But in my life time I never expect to have to do that sort of (unsafe) driving. An hour stop every 300 miles is not a problem and should be encouraged anyway I would have thought.
Unsafe? Ha, you need a dose of reality. It is a mater of training and physical and psychological fitness.
Between my training in the Army and being a driver of a big truck on-call to run at any hour of the day for the last decade, I know what I’m doing and how to do it.
Sure, unsafe for many people, but the proof is in the pudding. NO accidents! I’m approaching 2 million miles. I have driven a big truck more than double the distance the Apollo 11 command module traveled on its lunar mission.
You sound like a guy who can do the business…. now did you read the articles about EV longevity coz it sounds like they are pretty good at sticking around too?
It’s not so much a question of how far you can go on a charge ( though those affordable $25,000 models have a range of under 125 miles and even less when it’s cold) the issue of taking an hour to recharge is problematic. What if you were bugging out from a storm or firestorm and didn’t have time to wait for an hour to charge? Gas is still far more reliable, recharges in 5 minutes from empty to full, and doesn’t spontaneously combust.
The other side to that is because it is so convenient to charge at home, my vehicle is almost always charged. Just saying. As for the spontaneously combust thing…. can I suggest you do some reading on the latest batteries. They are far safer and I would say that now they are “probably” less likely to burn than an ICE car.
“The other side to that is because it is so convenient to charge at home”
Good for you. Not everybody has that luxury. For EVs to be anything more than a rich person’s toy, they have to (at the very least):
1) come down significantly in unsubsidized pricing,
2) have comparable to ICE ranges at that lower pricing
3) be convenient for the masses who don’t live in situations where charging at home is possible (apartment dwellers for example), which means readily available charging stations that are comparable in time spent at ICE refueling stations.
So far they’re 0 for 3.
1) come down significantly in unsubsidized pricing,
Why oil is subsidized? Can’t have it both ways.
2) have comparable to ICE ranges at that lower pricing
Coming. Tesla model 2 will be, by all accounts, another game changer.
3) be convenient for the masses who don’t live in situations where charging at home is possible
But gas is not the same price all over the country so that is hardly equal. And infrastructure for EV’s is being worked on to make it more available to all. Funny thing is people like you fight that. Can’t have it both ways.
“Why oil is subsidized? ”
Leading with misdirection and a lie, I see. When one has to ead off with such, you know they know they have nothing valid to say.
1) Oil is not ICE vehicles. The equivalent to oil in this conversation is not EVs, it’s would be electricity (which BTW is just as much if not more so subsidized as oil). We’re not talking about oil and eledctricity we’re talking about ICE and EV cars.
2) What you call subsidies on oil is the same kinds of thing that most every industry gets re- depreciation of assets in accounting/taxes, credit for taxes paid in foreign countries, etc.
“Coming. ”
It’s been “coming” for years (just like fusion). Hasn’t managed to get here yet and won’t be getting here any time soon. And that’s with the subsidies still in place. take those away and the time till it “gets here” becomes even further away.
“But gas is not the same price all over the country”
And? you are misdirecting again. we’re not talking about the price of gas (or the price electricity, which also isn’t the same all over the country), we were discussing the inability of apartment dwellers and the like to charge at home and the masssive inconvience that makes for them switching to EVs from the much more practical to use ICE vehicles.
“And infrastructure for EV’s is being worked on to make it more available to all”
And even if it existed, it still wouldn’t be as practical and convienient to use as the infrastructure for ICE. it take hardly any time to fill up an ICE tank (in and out of a gas station in minutes at worst). It takes considerably longer to fully charge an EV (hours at worst)
I always suspected you were a used car salesman Steven.
Shonky Brothers. !
Constantly trying to sell a rusted old wreck with no wheels…
.. and wondering why no-one is buying it.
Are you smoking wacky backy?
Mosh has learnt a new language.. gibberish !
It’s a language he’s been fluent in for years now!
“the best seller list does NOT show where the market lies or where it will go. never has, never will.”
Actually, it’s very much the definition of where the market lies *at the moment*, as it’s simply a snapshot of the market at the moment, nothing more, nothing less. While It clearly can’t tell you where the market will go, it very much shows you where the market currently is at. Perhaps if you had taken more than English lit classes in college, you’d have known that.
The Climate Crusaders Are Coming for Electriic Cars Too
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-climate-crusaders-are-coming-for-electric-cars-too-global-warming-energy-power-fossil-fuels-environment-31a692ca
Massive marketing campaign for EV during Super bowl. People with money to burn will propel the EV bandwagon which, doesn’t bode well for the rest of us. I can’t afford twice the buck for the same bang as my 2002 Mercury Sable wagon LOL.
Many of us can’t even afford a used ICE vehicle at today’s prices.
story tip
New car prices push higher as used vehicle prices keep slipping (yahoo.com)
OK, very tongue in cheek, could this be the end of the ICE age, or another climate crisis?
Ford halts production of electric F-150 Lightning amid issues of battery problems: Report
Updated: February 14, 2023 – 12:56pm
https://justthenews.com/nation/ford-halts-production-electric-f-150-lightning-amid-issues-battery-problems-report
…
…
The best thing about repeatedly hitting yourself in the head with a hammer is the wonderful feeling of relief you enjoy when you stop.
Yea, as my Dad used to tell me when I hurt myself. “Feels good when it stops hurting, doesn’t it?”
Can’t see that anyone has posted this so here goes:
Headline:“Tesla goes down across Europe leaving some drivers unable to charge cars
https://metro.co.uk/2023/02/14/tesla-goes-down-across-europe-leaving-some-drivers-unable-to-charge-cars-18282364/
edit to PS
I found that on MSN UK – they haven’t opened comments on this story
har
har
har
They know they are doing wrong but carry on regardless
Story tip
Net zero costs 1,300 Ford jobs in UK (yahoo.com)
Ford halts F-150 Lightning production due to possible battery issue (cnbc.com)
2300 jobs lost in Germany
We’re subsidies and incentives taken into account?
I own a BMW X5 and Caddy ATS-V. That’s 4 Turbo’s and almost 900 hp. They will have to pry my keys out of my cold damn hands, but a Tesla Plaid does sound interesting
I recently found myself waiting for others for half an hour by the main street of a busy town not far from Sydney, Australia. I passed the time by counting EVs in the passing traffic. My count had reached zero by the time the others turned up. It lifted my day.
Oops…
“For some electric vehicle owners, recharging now more costly than filling up“
And that’s without road tax embedded in the meter rate for electricity like it is for the pump price of gasoline.
I get similar results for the USA when I count the number of owners of 2 cars or more and assume such owners will be unlikely to buy more than one BEV, For single car owners, they buy BEVs at an insignificant rate. My numbers suggest a market share peak of less than 10%. I have also seen, even in California that Teslas dominate the market and lesser, less powerful BEVs have very low market share.
The US market is very diverse, with California are already at a 16% market share but the rest of the country is about a 3% market share or less.
The market is likely to slow soon and peak within several years.
A car is totalled when the repairs exceed the value of the car. An EV is therefore totalled when its battery needs replacing. That’s why EVs lose value much faster than ICEs.
In Australia, you’ll know EVs are ready to take off when someone comes up with a viable and attractive (the EV utes I’ve seen are ghastly) electric replacement for what we call the “tradie ute”. Rangers, BT50s, Hiluxes, etc dominate our sales of ALL vehicles.
The manufacturers are pressing governments to ban the sale of gas/diesel models simply because they know people will continue to resist purchasing overpriced EVs even with overly-generous subsidies. Let’s see the producers stand on their own legs and figure out how to cut costs instead of trying to fleece customers with state assistance. Gasoline/diesel vehicles took off by themselves a century ago by becoming more cost-competitive, not because alternate transportation means were prohibited.
I bought a BMW hybrid last year purely for tax reasons. A fully electric car is no good to me because I have a lot of high mileage days. But what good does it do the environment – even if you believe the CO2 nonsense – for me to cart around two engines and two energy storage systems? It just increases energy use. The government policy fails, even on its own terms.
Hmmm …A much larger market share than I would have thought.
No probs as the EU simply mandates EVs by 2035 and leaves it to local elected pollies to implement the decree- EU to ban fossil fuel cars, slash truck and bus emissions (msn.com)
Easy peasy!
I see an increased market, down the road, for buggies and horses.
e-tron sounds like étron means turd in French.
Some Oz money sums for the very popular ICE and ECE models –
In early 2019 the family had the choice of the Tesla M3 Standard Range plus at $66000 or the Toyota RAV4 Cruiser 2WD Hybrid at $42000. Fast forward to today and the 4 year lease/finance is up and with the average 15000kms/yr they both have 60000kms on the clock and Redbook tells the dealer what you get as trade-in value-
Redbook Cars | Australia’s No.1 Car Research Website – redbook.com.au
Tesla gets $40600 andToyota gets $43850 so $25400 depreciation for Tesla and $1850 in the pocket for the Toyota. Ah but what about the respective fuel costs. So 4.8L/100kms for the Toyota at current average $1.80/L ($1.65- $1.99 cycle in the metro) and that’s $5200 round while the Tesla at 15kWhrs/100k and say 30c/kWhr home (60c-79c public charger) would be $2700 for those 60,000 kms. Even if it’s free off your rooftop solar the Tesla has a real cost problem particularly now car finance rates are 8-9% or even the family’s home mortgage jumping over 5%.
Mind you that RAV4 is listed at $54225 new now while the Tesla is $63900 so you can see why the Green slushfunders are into middle class welfare in order to change the average temperature of the planet to what only they know it should be.
UK people should accept reality on this, and think it through.
The starting assumption should be that ICE and hybrids really are going to be banned in 2030 and 2035 respectively.
Everyone is right in saying that this is not going to allow normal patterns of car use that we have today.
Where they go wrong is saying that means it won’t happen. It will. All four political parties, Labour, Conservatives, SNP and Liberals (and the Greens too) are committed to it.
So get used to a world in which you have cars with about 100 mile range and hours to refuel at higher prices than ICE cars today. Or you can get several hundred miles range by paying three times as much.
And get ready to adjust life, because its going to happen. A lot fewer cars, a lot colder houses. The politicians don’t care, and there is no-one to vote for with any chances who dissents.
There’s a lot of smart analyses on this site. This isn’t one of them.
The EV market is on the exponential part of the technology adoption curve. Where prices are high, it is because demand exceeds supply.
Most EVs have wait lists for months. Try to buy an F150 Lightning today and you might take delivery in 2024 or 2025. The dealer might let you pay extra to get on the list.
EV sales are mostly about performance, not climate. They’re quiet, quick, smooth, and require less maintenance. Lots of people like that. Charge them with coal or nuclear energy if that is what makes you happy.
Rather than EVs being on the exponential development curve the likes of Tesla and BYD have shown they’re very much a mature technology with economies of scale that’s now pushing on battery resourcing capability. They’ve also struck the refuelling time problem steepening curve and trying to address that at the margins-
Scientists Find the Holy Grail: the Reason Why Lithium-Metal Batteries Fail (msn.com)
EVs will always cost more than ICE cars-
BMW executive says electric cars will always cost more than conventional cars | news.com.au — Australia’s leading news site
and because they do manufacturers load them up with all the lux tech bells and whistles to appeal to the well off buyer. Well apart from main market China where they’re prepared to forgo increasing Western tech safety standards in order to control city pollution. In that respect all China is doing is riding on the external combustion engine (ECE) and shifting emissions to centralised coal fired power stations.
Don’t get me wrong. Western market lux EVs are great cars for the revheads and for well off city slicker families as second cars with off street parking and charging but that’s a limited market. Elon has milked that market brilliantly but it’s not the mainstream urban commuter market let alone towhorses and workhorses.
Anyone trying to make a cheap base level EV commuter with solid roof steel wheels and cloth seats non-metallic paint etc will go broke in Western markets because a Chinese/Asian ICE with trinkets will kill them. In any case there’s not enough lithium battery resources to go around particularly with grid firming competition for them. EV penetration will hit the market segment wall when chip supply problems etc ease and there’s plenty of all sorts of new cars in the showrooms again.
This story estimates a 40 percent job cut from Ford. It’s probably more like a 75 percent job cut when Tesla gets through reaming out the legacy companies based on giga press, vertical integration, and many other innovations in cost reduction. That’s after losing money on both ends of the product line up from light trucks to cars.
Ford just exposed the biggest lie of net zero (yahoo.com)
Wait until virtue signally Karens find out that their beloved BEV IS POWERED BY CHILD SLAVE LABOR.
SEE Dr Kara’s report on Cobalt from the Congo.
Kinda makes a good bumper sticker
“this EV is POWERED BY CHILD SLAVE LABOR”
.
.
I repost a link to my comment thread:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/06/20/evs-fossil-fuel-economy-no-better-than-ice-vehicles/#comment-3540259
Summary:
I compared to energy dispensers:
The alternative is between “mono 230 V 32 A socket, for only 5001€ without taxes.” and “For €303.27 (excl. taxes)… 1 liter of diesel fuel per second”
The conclusion:
Compared to 6 400 000 J for the diesel pump: the 303 € pump procures 960 times more usable (mechanical) energy for a given refilling time than the 5001 € socket.
(That’s NOT 960% more. That’s times 96000%, or 95900% more.)
Alternative: