By Vijay Jayaraj
I live in Bengaluru in southern India. This month, the city recorded the coldest temperature in 10 years for the month of November. So has been the case in my country’s capital New Delhi where extreme winters have become a norm in recent years.
A small percentage of India’s 1.3 billion population has access to electrical heaters. However, a majority must burn a variety of fuels for fire to stay warm, making many people susceptible to surprise cold events. Why are cold events considered a surprise and not a normal part of weather? Is it because the public mind has been made complacent about cold by the fearmongering of global warmists?
The reality is cold events have become common not just in India but across the globe. Since 2017, there have been regular incidences of below-average temperatures in both winter and summer. What can be inferred from these cold spells and what do they suggest about the apocalyptic rhetoric of the climate cult?
Death by Cold and Heat in India
Image by CO2 Coalition
Data Source: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002619.t002
Cold Spells and Polar Ice Sheets
The November 18 snow event at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport is the earliest snowfall in recorded history since 1898. Just an isolated event due to a regional storm? Well, think again.
The past few months witnessed unusual cold spells in the U.S. and Canada. Buffalo registered one of its highest snowfalls for November while Vancouver saw unusual early winter snowfall.
On November 20 and 21, hundreds of daily all-time low temperature records were registered across the U.S. as Arctic air swept through the North American continent. There have been extreme cold events in other parts of the world too.
In August, China’s northwestern province of Xinjiang experienced surprise summer snowfall. South America, Europe, Asia and Australia registered record low temperatures in recent months.
In Greenland – often a subject in the climate-change debate – the surface mass balance (SMB) of ice sheet this year is at one of its highest levels since 1981 and is set to increase further in the winter season. Greenland has been registering a consistent growth in ice sheet SMB since 2016.
As Electoverse writer Cap Allon notes, “(S)ince 2016, Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow mass seasons have been holding well above the 1982-2012 average, and the 2022-2022 season is proving no different — as of the latest datapoint (Nov 19), the ‘Total snow mass for the NH’ chart, which comes courtesy of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), continues to ride above both the multidecadal average and the standard deviation.”
Northern Hemisphere Snow Accumulation
Source: https://globalcryospherewatch.org/state_of_cryo/snow/fmi_swe_tracker.jpg
The “Dangerous Warming” Rhetoric
So, do these record snowfall events and record low temperature events mean that there is no increase in global average temperatures? Certainly not! There has been a warming trend since the Little Ice Age began to lose its grip in the 17th century, but never has there been a dangerous general warming – and there is none now.
The claim that global warming has made our summers hotter and winters milder is certainly wrong. As evidenced in the last five years, both extreme cold and extreme warmth have been common.
Until the climate debate took over our media, these thermal ups and downs were known as weather variations. However, in the age of climate apocalypse, every extreme weather event is a catastrophe. Even unusual snowfall and cold are considered sour fruits of man-made emissions of carbon dioxide.
This pseudoscience and outright distortions of media and political elites are harmful. The most vulnerable in our world are more exposed to the risks of cold because of an exaggerated concern about warming.
More than 500 million Indians still use open fire to warm themselves while cold kills more people than heat. In some parts of India, winter temperatures can reach as low as -20 Celsius/-4 Fahrenheit. Even in a developed nation such as Germany, climate complacency has led to unpreparedness for winter energy needs and the government officials are now asking citizens to heat just one room in their homes!
It is the cold that kills. If anything, the warming of the past three centuries has been extremely beneficial to mankind, helping us achieve unprecedented progress in human health, living standards, food production and technological achievement as we utilize earth’s resources ever more efficiently.
Vijay Jayaraj is a Research Associate at the CO2 Coalition, Arlington, Virginia. He holds a master’s degree in environmental sciences from the University of East Anglia, UK and resides in India.
No surprises for anyone here.
If it’s Summertime and warm, it’s Global Warming.
If it’s Summertime and cold, it’s Climate Change.
If it’s Wintertime and warm, it’s Global Warming.
If it’s Wintertime and cold, it’s Climate Change.
Seasonal rhetoric…
Climate change in Steamboat Springs, Colorado. Snowiest November since 2010/2011 ski season.
https://www.steamboat.com/
Coldest summer day on record in south east Queensland TODAY.
1/12/22 here in Queensland, first day of summer.
Whether the weather be fine
Whether the weather be not
Whether the weather be cold
Whether the weather be hot
It’s climate change and your fault,
whether you like it or not!
Told you so 20 years ago This winter will be hell.
PREDICTION OF THE CARNAGE THIS WINTER IN EUROPE
The cull of the elderly and poor
We published the important conclusions to this debate in 2002 and nothing has changed:
The alleged Climate Crisis is a fifty-year-old scam, and “green energy” is not green and does not produce much useful energy.
The Climate scammers have wasted trillions of dollars and millions of lives on fraud.
FOR THE RECORD, WE PUBLISHED IN 2002:
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
– by Sallie Baliunas (Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian), Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U), Allan MacRae (Professional Engineer, retired (Queen’s U, U of Alberta)
I PUBLISHED ON SEPTEMBER 1, 2002 in the Calgary Herald:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
I UPDATED MY GLOBAL COOLING PREDICTION IN 2013:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
[Some say global cooling started in Feb2016, but I prefer Feb2020.]
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA
British Undersecretary for Energy and Climate Change, 31Oct2013
By Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.
[excerpt]
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
See CorrectPredictions.ca and my papers listed therein for proof.
Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., Calgary
https://energy-experts-international.com/
Some time back, I don’t recall when, Russian scientists predicted a real drop in global avg. temperatures similar, or worse, than those of the70’s starting around 2030-2035. Now that has a familiar ring to it.
climate cooling… warming… change, a pot of gold at the end of the… every rainbow.
Please, n.n., I’m a gold exploration geologist, I don’t think you should be blurting out our secrets like that.
To the 19th century and beyond
Wouldn’t it be Loverly My Fair Lady, I know how she feels but it’s o longer a memory!
I am sure the zealots would blame the Valentines Day storm of 2021 in Texas on global warming.
Not on Global Warming. On Climate Change. That beautifully rubbery term can be used for anything.
If it’s warm it’s GW, if it’s cold it’s CC
This scam started out as ” global warming ” because the big scare was that CO2 would cause runaway warming and the world would reach a “tipping point “.
In over 30 years very little has changed , so they ( the warmists ) now call it “climate change ”
If you are a socialist/communist politician you can blame any thing about the weather on climate change .
It is just a tool that they use to control their populations .
Would some one here explain how late spring frosts can be caused by rising CO2 ? Our Prime Nut Minister here in New Zealand blamed our disastrous late spring frosts on climate change so that means that it had to be caused by CO2 or was it methane . When will the worlds population wake up to what these politicians and the UN are trying to take the world ? One world government and the demise of democracy .
Climate Change really is a thing, you know. In fact, the climate has been changing pretty much on a regular basis for about 4.5 billion years,now, and will likely continue on until another 5 billion or so years pass, when the sun goes nova and explodes. Until then life on earth will either adapt to the change or else it will die off. Five billion years is just too long for us mere humans to worry about.
Yes. It was the climate change swings during the Pleistocene era that accelerated evolution of mankind from the earliest ancestors….only one of the many similar species made it into the current Holocene
Apparently, Mother Nature aka Gaia aka planet earth, did not get the memo from the climate cult alarmists re: warming being dangerous to human life. And, thus we have record levels of early snow and cold all over the globe. As if the planet is out to show up the nutjob warmunistas by showing what the results could be with a serious winter everywhere. The cold kills more folks than the warm. Its a memo from the forces which actually control the climate aka weather.
Silly faux climate scientists and other pretenders trying to talk smart over that which the inhabitants of this planet have no control over, at all.
Maybe she did get the memo so has now acted on it and stopped the warming.
If we start to notice after three successive La Ninas we will have much to worry about if La Nina remains dominant.
It is unlikely, Stephen, for La Ninas to remain dominant indefinitely, because La Ninas serve to supply the fuel in the Pacific Warm Pool for the next El Nino. And that El Nino will form when a number of Westerly Wind Bursts send that warm water eastward along the Equatorial Counter Current and below through the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent (Cromwell Current). ENSO Basics, Stephen.
Regards,
Bob
For now, we have a clear trend. Wait for the end of the solar cycle.
La Nina is very stable.
Seems like neutral ENSO has been rather dominant since the beginning of the solar minimum of the 24th SC until the La Nina emerged last spring, ( a El Nino had been predicted but didn’t happen).. Neutral ENSO states are rather unstable and short lived but both minimums 23rd and 24th cycle sported significant neutral periods Why and it’s impact on on weather is beyond me.. In 2010 about 18 months after the end of the minimum of the 23rd SC we finally moved beyond into an El Nino that brought Snowmaggedon to the East Coast because of a very cold upper atmosphere. Usually those Nor Easters are rainy and slushing at least on the e front end but not in 2010 and they were cold and potent. It wasn’t until 2-3 years later that we got the really cold winters with near record snow extents during a return of a period of persistent Neutral ENSO’s. Go figure.
It looks like the ENSO Meter has recorded a move.
Well stated, Vijay! Our children need to see this side of the climate discussion. I’ll be citing this article soon, when I address members of my school district about the teaching of critical thinking and the time-honored scientific method in our schools.
I don’t think critical thinking is the‘Time-honoured’ scientific method these days in schools. Touchy-feely Wokiness seems to have taken over for the most part.
It isn’t, and therein lies the problem.
more severe winter weather? uh, huh— proof of global warming! I hear that often here in Massachusetts. I used to argue with such people but I gave up- it’s hopeless- just as bad as when I used to argue with creationists.
To the cultists any and every weather event is proof of global warming.
Not even the IPCC says that- but the cultists do- and the idiot media and politicians listen to the cultists, being too ******* lazy and stupid to do their homework. I’ve seen here in Massachusetts how the cultists beat their drums day after day- making it seem l ike a mass movement, which it ain’t. They claim thousands of people agree with them- as time goes by, it catches on with the unthinking masses who begin to fear bad weather.
Yes indeed! We have had an excess of normal weather near us this year – OBVIOUSLY AGW.
It is not just worldwide record cold that is challenging climate rhetoric.
Alarmists have promised that Southern Africa would experience more heat and drought because of climate change. It is fairly early in the rain season which starts later in October but already the major dams are overflowing. In the Free State Province, with the largest dam (and by far the biggest total storage) in the country, they average 102%. Alarmists are going to have to change their narrative to include plenty of rain over a number of years. I think I have read something similar about eastern Australia. What a joke!
https://www.dws.gov.za/Hydrology/Weekly/ProvinceWeek.aspx?region=FS
Indeed. Been cold over eastern Australia.
The west has been OK but the wind temperature has been cold for months.
In Northern Utah, we’ve been in a persistent cold pattern since late October. This November was the 2nd coldest in the 21st century.
Absolutely, Walter! And our Northern Utah ski resorts are delighted with the 300+ percent of normal snowpack at this time of the year.
Go read the comments by RICKWILL and the associated discussion over here:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/29/a-better-way-to-remove-seasonal-variations/
Rick has a very interesting take on what’s going on.
Vijay ==> Thanks, nice piece.
Here in the UK it is a chilly day around 6 to 7 deg. C The wind energy fleet which totals 25.5 GWs is producing all of 2.5 GW yesterday it was about half that. Thankfully we still have gas powered generation available to keep the lights on but the warmists, sorry I mean Climate Alarmists to give them their more up to date name, want to stop all fossil fuel extraction in the UK.
This winter will teach them a lesson they will not forget. The grid managers have already warned of power cuts being likely and we have not even reached winter yet!
Headlines here in the UK are talking about Germany doing a major 15 year deal with Quatar for liquified gas supply being signed and the UK are apparently hot on the heals to do the same.
We could of course frack our own gas supply from the Bowland Shales but that is not allowed by our newest PM. Importing gas is good extracting gas from our own lands is bad….apparently?
Maybe someone from the alarmist community will come and advise us why?
Rod, SA needs gas generation to prevent decade of blackouts
A Finnish company that makes power plants, expects South Africa to face electricity outages for at least another decade unless it installs as much as $8 billion worth of gas-fired generation capacity.
However, further on
While Eskom and the government have said that gas-fired plants will be needed as the country transitions away from coal, environmental rights groups oppose prolonging the country’s reliance on fossil fuels.
https://www.biznews.com/energy/2022/11/29/sa-gas-decade-blackouts
The won’t forget because they will never even notice.
Good to see a graduate of East Anglia university sharing these views!
“Good”? Or “surprising”. Excellent article, Vijay!
Very good article. This global warming junk science has gone on now for over forty years. I don’t see any sign of global warming.
How strange it is that some of our most highly educated people went along with this junk science. How strange it is that news reporters who boast of their investigative skills were so easily snookered. How strange it is that leaders of governments squandered billions of dollars chasing flying pigs.
It all gets down to the 3.7 W/m2 of radiative forcing that comes from doubling CO2. The assumption is that energy must create some warming. Even the vast majority of skeptics accept this claim.
There have a few skeptics over time that claimed it violated the 2nd Law and they have been attacked as anti-science. But, it turns out they were right for the wrong reason. It’s not a violation of the 2nd Law, but instead, the 2nd Law in action eliminates the warming.
I call it boundary layer equilibrium feedback.
WUWT needs to approach Predicit to predict the future level of atmospheric CO2. Alarmists will then have a way to put there money where their mouths are. The way to market this would be that “The Biden Administration is going to spend $369 billion, money that could have been used to build hospitals, invent drugs, fund tax cuts, and build schools, to fight climate change through the control of CO2. In 5 years, after spending billions of dollars, will the trend in CO2 be reduced?” Climate alarmists can then make a fortune by spending their money on the estimate that has CO2’s trend being reduced. I’m not even talking about reducing CO2, I’m talking about reducing the trend, the 2nd Derivative. They will still lose.
Good to hear from and about other countries. Not good to hear the results from the Malthusiate climatistas.
I see a big threat in that industrial society has evolved in an unusually benign climate, reversion to the mean of the past 400yrs is what we should fear. Nature outpacing agriculture in CO2 uptake bigger threat than change in weather.
3:04 PM · Jul 8, 2018
https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronshem/status/1016050489392279552
If we reduce emissions too fast, or worse, reduce concentrations, we could cause the water stress, droughts, and famines we seek to prevent from hypothesised weather changes at the end of the century.
https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronshem/status/1126891475822891009
Aaron:
I agree. See “Net-zero Catastrophe Beginning?” under my name on Google Scholar.
It seems that if we succeed in defeating the climate change/CAGW pyramid scheme we need to be ready for the next end-of-times scam. There will never be an end to the end-of-times religions.
Deaths data is in thousands?
Snowfall records will be a climatic feature in the Northern Hemisphere for the next 9000 years. Earth is 600 years into the current glaciation.
Snowfall is trending upward. So far only Greenland has increasing permanent snow cover and gaining in elevation but still losing ice mass.
Termination of the current interglacial is occurring faster than I expected for a era of low orbit eccentricity. There are self-reinforcing factors that are accelerating ocean heat uptake ahead of lower sunlight winters across the north. Very small changes in solar intensity but already causing observable changes and the 10.000 year upward phase of the cycle only began 600 years ago.
Last time earth had the current level of “global warming” was 117k years ago or 5 precession cycles back in history.
RickW, does this theory of yours align in any fashion with the theory of messrs Vinos and May (et al?) in that they point towards the mechanism of the ‘winter gatekeeper’, and you are (talking on my own here) implying that maybe the gate has been either opened or closed (depending on what is being kept in or out) about 600 years or so ago?
And if we accept it as such, we are slowly starting to see an accumulation of the effects.
R,
JBP
It is not a theory of mine. It is making coherent observations based on real physics rather than the convoluted phiisics that pervades the so-called “climate science” where back radiation from cold to hot exists and a non-condensing trace gas can alter earth’s energy balance.
Remove the non physics and the observations tie in much the same as 116k years ago at the termination of the last interglacial. More particularly, the interglacial that terminated 399k years ago was driven be almost identical orbital conditions that exist now. A relatively mild increase in solar intensity over the northern hemisphere but the sea level collapsed at a great rate in subsequent millennia..
Be careful with timing. We may look very similar to a previous interglacial termination, but even if we follow a similar track it could take many thousands of years.
Vijay, Your academic credentials must be deemed to be questionable with a masters from UEA, and yet you always, on this blog talk sense, present data honestly and draw logical conclusions. Would you like to write a piece on how you emerged from the climategate swamp to be a sentient and logical scientist. I think it would make fascinating reading
You’re going to get these freak weather events with the dooming because-
CLIMATE CHANGE!!!
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/australia-has-second-wettest-spring-ever-with-parts-of-country-coldest-in-decades/ar-AA14JMpH
Oh ye of little faith in the dooming tempting Gaia’s wrath-
https://theconversation.com/coastal-property-prices-and-climate-risks-are-both-soaring-we-must-pull-our-heads-out-of-the-sand-195357
Climate change, your flexible friend.
Temps in the coastal mountains of Northern California are forecast to reach 13 F tomorrow night. Temps will then remain in the low 20s F at night and 40 F or lower during the day for the next 10 days.
But the cold is caused by Global Warming, isn’t it?
Let’s look at the distribution of ozone in the stratosphere. You can see that most of the ozone has concentrated over eastern Siberia and has moved partially over Canada. Since ozone is heavier than the surrounding air and there is a temperature difference, there are waves in this region that block the usual polar vortex pattern, which should be more circular. With strong blocking, the polar vortex is broken up.
Yup! 1st of December here in Australia, it’s “summer” and it is cold. Must be climate change.
A strong drop in temperatures over the Great Lakes. Temperature in degrees Celsius.
From the article: “More than 500 million Indians still use open fire to warm themselves while cold kills more people than heat.”
That would be because cold constricts the body’s circulatory system, and this exascerbates any heart or circulatory problems people have.
Cold is not good for the circulatory system.
The initial response is vaso dilation casing flushing from increased blood flow to the surface. That is what give the rosy cheeks. As the bodies core temp drops though the reaction is reversed to peripheral vasoconstriction as the body tries to retain warmth for it’s vital organs.
Of course that is for a person with a normally functioning hypothalamus and no previous injuries to extremities due to cold.
Fireplace insert has a nice fire in it doing it’s job. Forecast high today at my central Indiana home is 35 F with a low tonight of 18 F.
Mankind does not even know what the optimum global climate is let alone how to achieve it. Despite the hype, there is no real evidence that cO2 has any effect on climate. There is also plenty of scientific rationale to support the conclusion that the climate sensitivity of CO2 is zero Hence all efforts to reduce CO2 emissions will have no effect on global climate.
Observing the current circulation in the north, it is already apparent that the polar vortex will be split into two vortices, around which the air will now circulate.
“The November 18 snow event at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport is the earliest snowfall in recorded history since 1898. Just an isolated event due to a regional storm?”
It was actually so unexpected for me at least. Imagine my shock when I woke up and there was a snow outside this early! Have you ever seen your wife put on 2 pairs of wool socks ’cause she doesn’t have winter boots yet? 😀 Apparently 2 pairs on top of thick leather cowboy boots(she has corral boots women or something like that). Myself I was freezing my ass off constantly, it’s been one of the coldest Novembers to my memory…
In my opinion, politicians pushing the Green New Deal and the Paris Agreement are aware of this cooling trend. The sources of the data are their own agencies NOAA and NASA after all. Knowing things are trending colder, they have great urgency to get their transformative climate agenda items passed. As a cooling regime takes hold, they want to take credit for avoiding the catastrophe they said would come from global warming. If the policies are not in place and the various climates have considerable cold events, these politicians and their supporters lose credibility. I suspect some will claim that the measures taken staved off catastrophe while others will shift to blaming human activity as causing the cold (as some did in the 1979s).