The End of Snow  — Again

News brief by Kip Hansen — 28 November 2022

Just a quick note about those predictions and projections of “The End of Snow” (You remember that, don’t you?  I mentioned another such nonsensical media-meme here.)

According to post at Severe Weather Europe:   “Snow Extent in the Northern Hemisphere now Among the Highest in 56 years Increases the Likelihood of Cold Early Winter Forecast both in North America and Europe”.  Images that follow are from the snow page at Global Cryosphere Watch.

This is what they mean:

That’s a lot of “no more snow”. 

Or this:

Readers should note that :  “highest in 56 years” doesn’t mean it was higher in some year before 1966.  It means that our first satellite measurements are from 56 years ago….so, it really means, “highest ever measured”.

As for “drought everywhere”, this is not light low-water-content snow:

This observation aligns well with “In his most recent Weatherbell Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks ahead at the winter weather over the coming weeks across the globe.”

Just so ya know.

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Author’s Comment:

In the Central Hudson Valley of New York State, USA, we had out first snow on October 15th.  Long gone now, as Indian Summer arrived and my wife and I enjoyed several glorious days of sailing the fall-decorated Hudson River in 70°F sunny weather. 

In the past 30 years, we have had lasting snow as early Halloween and as late as Easter. 

We live in hope of another White Christmas, which we had last year.

Weather is chaotic, and varies wildly within a range determined by unnumbered factors, which we call Earth’s climate. 

Enjoy the snow, if you have it.  According to so many false voices:  “It will soon be a thing of the past.”

Thanks for reading.

# # # # #

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November 28, 2022 2:13 pm

It is certainly colder in WA State for this time of year with large mountain snowfall and possible lowland snowfall tomorrow in western WA.

As a side note, we had a very hot and dry Summer yet the fewest acres burned in a decade per DNR. 140k acres in 2022 vs 484K in 2021 and 842K in 2020.

Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 28, 2022 11:26 pm

Winter Park opened 2 slopes earlier than they ever have in their 80+ year history.

Reply to  rah
November 29, 2022 6:47 am

Rah, and Vail had its longest-ever-in-history season last year. Imaginary snow is pretty good for skiing.

November 28, 2022 2:13 pm

Bring it on, can’t wait to snowmobile and have great cherries and apples next year!

Reply to  timosoren
November 28, 2022 2:28 pm

I bet you’re glad you don’t live in Europe, with cold damp winters and little heating! That’s one reason we now live in the Pacific!

Pat from Kerbob
Reply to  mikelowe2013
November 28, 2022 2:59 pm

You must be good at treading water, or do you live under the sea?

Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 28, 2022 7:02 pm

Yup. Saw two today in urban Spokane Valley on our 1 inch. Not wise, but hey, they thought it was the way to travel. And BTW, it is Washington. That city with a similar name is proper referred to as DC.

Ed Zuiderwijk
November 28, 2022 2:17 pm

There will come a time when our children don’t know what predictions are about the end of snow.

John Shewchuk
November 28, 2022 2:27 pm

Could be related to the cooling phase of the Feynman solar (sunspot) cycle.

John Shewchuk
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 28, 2022 3:57 pm

Yes, I already commented there too. And thanks for your articles — all good stuff. In addition to the cooling Feynman cycle is the cooling of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscialltion) which is in a strong 3-year cooling trend — plus it has been undergoing a longer-term, more gradual 30-year cooling trend. Additionally, I expect the AMO (Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation) to start cooling in the near future — and then temps will really begin to drop, and maybe even have another Miami snow event like in 1977.

Reply to  John Shewchuk
November 28, 2022 7:05 pm

Yer. So in layman’s terms, the New Ice Age Commeth.

John Shewchuk
Reply to  Randall_G
November 28, 2022 7:15 pm
Tom Halla
November 28, 2022 2:36 pm

It went from rather warm to rather cold in Texas. Any zealot can pick one, and claim victory.

November 28, 2022 2:38 pm

End of snow has a poetic ring to it. ‘Snow ends on planet earth into permeant spring of flooding continents and and millions of innocent deaths’. As laughable as alien abduction. The meteorologically delusional needed to stop taking ectasy and smoking weed then and now.

Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 28, 2022 3:18 pm

What makes it most dangerous is you don’t know where it comes from most of the time. There could be pesticides or it could just be fake. Last summer I was given a cartridge that ended up giving me a lung injury. I always tell my friends we should ditch the smoking / vaping and just take edibles or tinctures.

Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 29, 2022 6:51 am

Ah, Kip. Reports from the frontlines indicate otherwise. My Colorado Thanksgiving was punctuated with the wholly unhealthy odor of a burning trashpile.

Pat from Kerbob
November 28, 2022 3:02 pm

Bloody awful cold this week in Alberta, highs of -20C.
In my opinion, the climate emergency our new intellectual mayor declared has now arrived.
I hope she’s working hard to figure out ways to make it warmer, if shes working on trying to make it colder we are going to have to chat.

November 28, 2022 3:18 pm

“It means that our first satellite measurements are from 56 years ago….so, it really means, “highest ever measured”.”
… It’s Unprecedented! Certainly caused by human fossil fuel use.

“Indian summer”?!? Egads, you vicious racist denier cretin. Have you no shame?

Rud Istvan
November 28, 2022 3:39 pm

Kip, wonderful post. Some snow stories from my SW Wisconsin dairy farm. It was so snowy in the late 1980’s early 1990’s that a local small ski resort did not have to make snow—kids loved all except the cold. I bought the family snowmobiles, and we had a blast zooming the farm. Even got my big two up stuck in a big snowdrift on a woods trail. Had to go get the 4wd farm tractor to drag her out.

Then, about 2000, winter snow diminished to the point we had severe winter alfalfa freeze burn. Then, about 2015, the winter snow returned. Bigly—one thereafter deer season we even had a south ranging grey wolf pack howling at the moon at night. They came south from northern Wisconsin because less snow so easier hunts.

Note to non-Wisconsinites. The big difference between wolves and coyotes are three, all easy to distinguish:

  1. Wolves are about twice the size of coyotes.
  2. Wolves hunt big game in packs, coyotes hunt solitarily small game.
  3. Wolves howl together at the moon, coyotes yap solitarily. Once you have heard the difference, never forgotten.
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 28, 2022 3:53 pm

Rud – Agree with your first 2 points re: wolves vs. coyotes. But…

I’ve lived in MN, WA, and now MT for the past 8+ years. Can assure you that coyotes frequently get together in groups to yip-yap. Wolves also sometimes howl all by their lonesome. Have heard both regularly in MN and MT.

A point 4 you could add is that wolves have rounder/blunter ears and snout, while coyotes are more pointed.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 28, 2022 6:58 pm

G’Day Kip,

“…coyotes in packs.”

We were in the RV campground at the north end of Inyokern, California. Normal ‘last’ walk of the day for Samson (Rottweiler/Great Pyrenees cross) was 10PM. Walked west towards the airport, a dirt track. Got to where the track splits, and had five sets of eyes reflecting the spotlight, about 25 yards away. We turned and slowly made our way back to camp, no attack. Yup, they do get together.

“Enjoy the snow…”. Stone the flamin’ crows mate, you’ve got to be kidding.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 28, 2022 6:05 pm

In Northern Connecticut we often hear a hellacious yap yap of what sounds like at least 20 coyotes. Always wonder if that’s our cat up a tree that they are flipping out over.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Rich Davis
November 29, 2022 4:44 am

In Southern CT too.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 28, 2022 6:10 pm

I also haven’t seen more than one coyote at a time in daylight, but at night I can hear a whole group of them sounding off.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  LKMiller
November 28, 2022 6:07 pm

“Can assure you that coyotes frequently get together in groups to yip-yap.”

I can confirm that. I’ve had a pack of coyotes around here for years and they have a habit of traveling down the creek right behind my house at night and they stop right here in the creekbed and yip and yap at my dogs fenced up in my yard. I think they do it to aggrevate the dogs. They know the dogs can’t come after them.

When they are out and about, you can tell where they are by the neighborhood dogs that bark at them as they travel through the area.

Coyotes definitely get together and yap.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
November 29, 2022 5:30 am

They seem not to pack as much here in farmland of Indiana as they do in many other places.

Elliot W
Reply to  LKMiller
November 28, 2022 8:13 pm

We live next to a forest interface in an otherwise urban area, with coyotes in that forest and adjacent land. Coyotes certainly celebrate their hunting in groups. And, as a group, they often howl along with the sirens on emergency vehicles. Those two howlings are both done in groups(not individually) and are very different in tone and excitement levels.
Maybe our urban coyotes have evolved a different sub-culture?

Len Werner
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 28, 2022 4:28 pm

I’ve also heard lone wolves howl (I assume at the moon, I didn’t ask) in Yukon, and regularly hear multiple coyotes yip here in the Cariboo of central BC. But then I am a non-Wisconsinite.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 28, 2022 5:11 pm

I thought the difference between wolves and coyotes was that one plays football and the other basketball?

I’ll get me coat..

Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
November 29, 2022 6:54 am

The critical difference is that the target zone on a wolf is a bit larger.

Mr Ed
Reply to  Rud Istvan
November 29, 2022 9:48 am

I’m a MT farm/ranch livestock producer and have experience
with predators. The one predator you left out is the wolf-coyote hybrid.
A few years ago there was some livestock depredation in WA state in the Okanagan
area. The ADC guys trapped it, put a collar on it and released it. They
also took a hair sample and it was DNA’ed.

It was a hybrid. It traveled to the east, back and forth
into Canada, Idaho and ended up in the Judith Basin, MT area where a rancher killed it for
killing some of his sheep. I first encountered one of these in the springtime maybe8-10 yrs ago. They also pack up and have a distinctive vocalization, it starts with a yodel and
ends in a howl. The packs are killing machines, we had a range cow killed summer of
’21 near our house by a grizzly bear. You really haven’t lived till you have a dead cow
by your house in grizzly country. There was a pack of the coy-wolves that came in
and cleaned up what was left one night. They carried on for several hours making
quite a racket. Climate
bits aren’t the only thing that doesn’t get mentioned in the press.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
December 1, 2022 12:28 pm

I lived on the edge of Whiting Ranch Park in Orange County, California for 27 years. Never saw a lone coyote. Mind you, when one caught a squirrel or small rabbit, he practically swallowed it whole rather than share. We saw packs almost daily for the first 8-10 years until the trees and brush obscured viewing. We still heard them until we moved away as they traveled through the canyon yapping like a bunch of teenagers.

Not so much with deer. I observed a big buck in a clearing waving his antlers around at ground level and grunting loudly. Nothing else I could see until he turned and stalked off. Seconds later eight coyotes walked warily into that clearing. After a minute, they proceeded in the same direction the buck had just gone. I’m pretty sure they were they were trailing him – or his herd.

Doesn’t mean there weren’t some loners. They just didn’t make enough noise to catch our attention.

November 28, 2022 3:42 pm

The end of snow… So, let it snow, let it snow. It’s accumulating. In the driveway. On the walkway. We’ll never know green lawns, again.

Gilbert K. Arnold
Reply to  n.n
November 28, 2022 6:32 pm

My late eldest sister still had the best idea about snow…..It can snow anywhere it wants, except for the streets and sidewalks

Chris Hanley
November 28, 2022 4:26 pm

It is interesting that the minimum snow cover more or less coincides with the 56 year mean whereas the maximum cover and minimum cover vary somewhat from the mean, I’m not sure what that means if anything.

November 28, 2022 4:56 pm

We live in hope of another White Christmas, which we had last year.

It is inevitable that there will be ever increasing likelihood of a white Christmas for everyone living north of 40N. Snow records will be a feature of the next 9000 years.

The last 4 interglacials ended in the exact circumstances now being observed on earth. Essentially the rapid acceleration of the winter water cycle. It mostly relies on the northern oceans warming while the reduced winter solar intensity on the land helps the process. A result of earth’s orbit perihelion moving later than the austral summer solstice.

The most significant warming is occurring on land north of 40N in January when there is next to no sunlight. Higher January land temperature can only occur due to higher heat transfer from the oceans. That means increased snowfall. The January land temperature has risen 3C in the last 70 years. The warming trend clearly visible from 1948 till the Alaskan tsunami of 1964 caused a sudden reduction before again getting on trend from late 60s. All long before CO2 was getting the accolades for “global warming”.

The land south of 40S to 80S (not much there) has no discernible temperature trend over the past 70 years. So far only Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are cooling. The oceans in the Southern Hemisphere have very high thermal inertia and it will be centuries before the reducing solar intensity is reflected in the temperature.

The northern oceans have so far experienced the very beginning of the increasing solar intensity that started 600 years ago. There are 9000 years to ago and the winter water cycle will continue to accelerate for the next 4000 years.

There is currently only one place on earth that gets high enough daily AVERAGE solar intensity to melt snow – the South Pole and parts of Antarctica in December. So once ice becomes permanent it gets very hard to shift while the winter water cycle is accelerating and night time precipitation throughout the year results in sleet. The last 3 glaciations ended when the glaciers were calving at high enough rate to cool the oceans and shut down the winter water cycle. Little snow meant the melting eventually overtook the snowfall.

Snow appears cold but more snow on land means more heat transfer from the oceans. That is the case until the land starts to elevate. 130m loss of ocean elevation over an area of 3.66e14m^2 translates to an average increase in elevation of the 1.02E14m^2 land north of 40N by 600m over the new mean sea level. That will take about 6C off the current temperature. The gain in land surface elevation accelerates the water cycle.

Hands up if you knew the Greenland plateau was gaining 17mm in elevation a year?

The silliest belief is that earth’s climate was perfect in 1850 and humans have made it less perfect. Human civilisation is in for an interesting ride in the coming centuries. It will be evident that the tipping point for the interglacial was 1400 if you take the solar energy as the tipping point; about now if you take snow accumulation as the tipping point or maybe a thousand years if you take sea level fall as the tipping point. That requires water loss to overtake thermal expansion. The July SST of the oceans north of 20N is increasing at 2.9C per century for the past 40 years and only the extra glacier calving off Greenland is having any cooling impact. So thermal expansion will continue for a long while.

Reply to  RickWill
November 28, 2022 5:37 pm

Your theory is so interesting. Can you explain what you think is happening to the Earth’s climate or can you refer me to anywhere? In support of your theory winters have cooled since the 1990s while summers have gotten hotter.

Reply to  walterr070
November 28, 2022 9:13 pm

Can you explain what you think is happening to the Earth’s climate or can you refer me to anywhere?

It is not what I think is going on; rather it is what we are all witnessing and some have mistakenly labelled “global warming” or “climate change” as if the climate never changed before 1850.

The attached provides a comparison between the sea level reconstruction and the June solar intensity at 40N in the upper chart. The last four interglacials terminated as the northern hemisphere solar intensity increased.

The second two charts give a wider coverage of solar intensity. It identifies the drivers of winter advection that brings snow to land north of 40N. The ocean solar intensity is average over the year from 20 to 90N and the land solar intensity is taken from Oct to Jan for land north of 40N – that is where the glaciers will eventually form. Observation of the bottom chart shows that the imbalance was at a minimum in J1400. So there is 600 years of increasing imbalance now in the bank and it will accelerate for about 4000 years – you aint seen nothing yet!

It is interesting that glaciations also end on rising NH solar intensity. My theory on this, that is currently supported by ocean cooling south of Greenland, is that glacier calving eventually shuts down the winter water cycle as the meltwater cools the ocean surface. When all land north of 40N is covered in glaciers calving, there will be a lot of meltwater and it accelerates as the sea level rises.

Ocean store heat – land stores ice until it gets returned to the ocean. It appears the holding capacity of the land is now 5 precession cycles – about 116kyr.

November 28, 2022 7:00 pm

Lots of snow, but it’s the wrong sort of snow. This is the warm kind, heated up by Man Made Global Warming.

November 28, 2022 9:15 pm

Meh- that map from Nov. 27 shows snowless gaps in Alberta and Saskatchewan. And in the contiguous USA, little snow cover except near the Canadian border and in the high elevations of the western US. Super-landlocked central Eurasia appears to somehow receive ample moisture. It’s been plenty cold here in Colorado, but very dry. I suspect La Niña.

Henry Pool
November 28, 2022 10:01 pm
November 29, 2022 12:14 am

Europe must be getting cold:

Interesting times are nigh.

November 29, 2022 12:44 am

It’s almost comical watching climate alarmist predictions continue to fail so spectacularly. It’s like they can’t learn from their own past predictions, oh wait….

Ireneusz Palmowski
November 29, 2022 2:00 am

Another wave of Arctic air is moving toward the Great Lakes.
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A strong hit of Arctic air in the west of North America.
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Last edited 1 month ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
November 29, 2022 2:24 am

I live in the middle of England; some personal anecdotal recollections of winters past.

1962/63; I was six and seven during these winters – ’63 notoriously cold for many weeks with heavy snow;

1970’s; early 1970’s I well remember heavy snow which meant we had a massive snowball fight in school playground;

1980’s: Parts of UK – I remember Devon and Cornwall particularly – blanketed in massive snow drifts, some reported to be 20/30/40 feet high; heavy snow socked us in the village we lived in for 4 days and a nearby rural small town was cut off for 5/6 days from one direction. Local steeply inclined road, regularly blocked in the past, bypassed to reduce the incline; from the top, looking eastwards, allegedly the next “stop” was Siberia due to topography as the crow flies ( unsure this is true but often quoted at the time by “locals’);

Around these decades, snow predicted to disappear from Europe; ski trip to Scottish Cairngorms in mid 1980’s was hellish and dangerous with very high winds, deep snow, and wet weather (never been back);

Ski trips to Europe from mid 1980’s during mid winter round same weeks year in year out – snow depths went from very deep and great conditions to poor conditions. Snow and glaciers touted by climate doom mongers to disappear within the very short term – “Lets review the actuality…?”.

1990’s; annual ski trips, same location in France, conditions varied year to year – each season had snow.

1999; Massive snowfall throughout the European Alps, over 4 metres lying depth not uncommon; part of Galtur, Austria wiped out by the snow equivalent of pyroclastic type avalanche (50m high travelling at 200+kph, with many casualties). One – very large – ski lift station at what became our favourite Austrian resort was obliterated by a big avalanche with many casualties – to this day, wooden crosses all over the Alp testify to how devastating this avalanche was – due to unstable slab snow depths, heavy snow and then high winds.

2000’s; family ski trips to said Austrian paradise at same village always had snow, depths varied year to year; one trip we had a valley wide (25+km long and just south of Galtur/Ischgl) warning of severe avalanche risk after days of heavy snow. We had to report daily to the owner of the apartment we were safe ( one day we were told in no uncertain terms not to venture out beyond the footprint of the property ) and if we needed vital medical supplies as the resort was cut off – the apartment was owned by the head of the mountain rescue service so “he knew” and had seen it all before more than once.

Recent trip to Norway – huge snowfall prior to trip in February. More recent trips to German ski area, same time of year; snowfall varied from very deep snow to no snow to speak off, with one trip curtailed due to dangerously high winds with high risk of trees being uprooted ( which did happen whilst we were there – again trapped indoors for more than 24 hours as directed by local mountain rescue service, risk of injury and worse far to great ).

This is not scientific but hopefully illustrates the variability of winter in the European mountains to a small degree. It appears that high European ski resorts opened “on time”, lower resorts have no snow but heavy snow forecast this week for Germany/Poland etc., and this chimes with the longer term forecast reported on these pages by Joe B. It might not be scientifically relevant but it sure was/is “observed”.

November 29, 2022 3:03 am

I live in southwestern Ontario, Canada. I have lived in this area for all 31 years that ive been alive. This year we absolutely DO NOT have near as much snow as we have had in other years. As a kid, I was always required to help out with stuff around the house. This included helping to shovel our driveway, before we eventually bought a snowblower. Back then, our driveway was gravel, and due to its location between two buildings, the way the wind blew, it always caused the snow to form a large drift, right down the center of our drivewyay. I dont live in that house anymore but i do frequently go past in while on the road, and i havent seen that large drift form in over 10 years, maybe even 15. Not only that, but i remember spending hours out in the cold, helping my grandfather with the Christmas lights that my grandmother insisted needed to be put up. These werent the same kind of lights they have today. These were those old larger glass bulb christmas lights. And it was my job to hold the strands while standing on the ground in the snow, and make sure that as my grandfather (on a ladder) hung them up, they didnt tangle or collide with anything hard enough to break a bulb. We would practically be frozen by the time we were done and went back in the house. We did this every single year. My memories of these kinds of things are not false. I remember exactly how much it sucked to have to stand in snow that deep for hours, and how much trouble my grandfather would have, trying to get the ladder to sit straight, in that deep of snow, so he could climb up it safely.
I dont know what is causing there to be less snow today than there was when i was younger. Im not saying its climate change. The more likely explanation is geoengineering/weather modification/cloud seeding, in my opinion. But not a lot of people believe this technology even exists or is used, so having that discussion is often difficult.
The winter has changed dramatically, and the summers are far more humid than they used to be too. Legit.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  MissHellKitten
November 29, 2022 4:29 am

From the beginning of December, winter in Ontario will remind you of your younger years.
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Reply to  MissHellKitten
November 29, 2022 7:12 am

At 31 you’re about 1/4 of the way through a cycle…

Reply to  DMacKenzie
November 29, 2022 7:22 am

Here’s a cycle:

Reply to  MissHellKitten
November 29, 2022 8:18 am

You say you do not have nearly as much snow now than previously. Even if you have some that’s not unusual and from my memory of living in southern ON. Having snow on the ground in November was unusual. I just looked at the weather for Windsor, London, and Sarnia and all places are expecting well above normal temperatures the next week.

Compare that with what we are experiencing in the west. Our town in MB is expecting well below normal temperatures in the next week, including a high of only -20 next Monday. Our first snow fell Nov. 10 and is staying for the winter.

November 29, 2022 4:37 am

In the early 1900’s, it was very cold. In the 1930’s it was very warm. In the 1970’s it was very cold. In the 2000’s it was very warm. By the 2030’s-2040’s, it should be expected to be very cold again. Prediction: in the 2070’s-2080’s it will be very warm again. The cycle takes 60-70 years to complete. And THAT is why identifying climate as an average of 30 years makes exactly zero sense. At least, if it was 65 years, it would usually include one whole warm and cold cycle.
28 degrees in Beaverton, Or, right now. Ski areas are all open or opening today.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  jshotsky
November 29, 2022 5:15 am

“At least, if it was 65 years, it would usually include one whole warm and cold cycle.”

The Human-caused Climate Change Charlatans only want to use half the cycle, the warm half. That way they can claim it is getting hotter and hotter and hotter and blame it all on CO2. When the cool phase of the cycle kicks in, they are going to be shown for the liars they are.

And for insurance, the Charlatans bastardized the global temperatures and erased the Twentieth Century Warming to further obscure the actual warm/cool cycle we live in.

November 29, 2022 5:25 am

Just keeps climbing.
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November 29, 2022 6:46 am

Is about 7 inches of imaginary white precipitation in my yard this morning. Whatever shall we call it?

Ireneusz Palmowski
November 29, 2022 10:56 am

Another wave of heavy snowfall is approaching the Great Lakes.
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Ireneusz Palmowski
November 29, 2022 11:47 pm
Last edited 1 month ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Ireneusz Palmowski
November 30, 2022 12:02 am

Winter in the northern hemisphere will begin according to the calendar on the first of December.
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November 30, 2022 5:20 pm

If we’re going to get sub zero temps, I like to see it happen before there is snow cover. Helps to keep the bug population down.

It is looking like it’s coming. Strat warming over Arctic is loading it up.

December 1, 2022 7:46 am

I looked at the Rutgers data and for week 43 (most recent) it’s showing 25.97 km^2 about 12th in ranking, but your graph shows over 40 km^2, what’s the reason for the difference?

Reply to  Phil.
December 4, 2022 8:35 am

Looked at more recent data from NOAA and snow cover looks fairly average.

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