Ace Forecaster Bastardi: “Something We Used to See In 1970s”, Warns Of “Spectacular Cold”

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin 

Risk of a “spectacular cold outbreak “…have countries let their guard down?

In his most recent Weatherbell Saturday Summary, veteran meteorologist Joe Bastardi looks ahead at the winter weather over the coming weeks across the globe.

What definitely distinguishes Joe from forecasters I follow here in Germany is that he doesn’t rely solely on the so-called ensemble models to make his longer term forecasts, but goes way back into the archives and searches for similar patterns that took place even decades ago (analogues) in order to better discern which way the weather is likely to turn in the weeks ahead.

German forecasters like here , here and here like to put out videos once or even twice daily to report on what the many model ensembles are showing, which is something no one really needs a meteorological license to do.  Too often you hear these weather pundits suddenly change their 7+ day forecast, in lockstep with whatever the latest ensemble run crunches out. Yet, most of us know that such forecasts are only valid until the next ensemble run because 7 days out the models can and often make U-turns.

“Very concerned” about coming cold

In Joe’s latest forecast, he again makes use of analogue years to forecast weeks ahead. I recall a forecast he made some 2 weeks ago warning that early December likely will turn cold in Europe – long before anyone else – basing it on weather patterns seen over past decades. Lo and behold, now the models are finally seeing wintry weather for next weekend.

In his latest forecast, Joe has become “very concerned” about the coming cold, which is going to be a real problem for not only people in the US, but around the globe.

“Mark my word, if this kind of cold shows up, that we’ve been setting up since the end of summer, and it looks like it at least has merit to consider, there’s going to be a blaming on climate change because of the blocking that caused it.”

Joe worries that many countries aren’t going to have sufficient energy to meet the forecast cold challenges, something politically inexcusable in 2022 with all our modern technology.

The kind of cold and blocking pattern ahead Joe is referring to is something the globe also saw/recorded decades ago and it’s not going to be anything new should it come to past.

Joe shows charts that point to what he says “could be a spectacular outbreak of cold”. Only now are the models showing what Joe had warned of weeks and months ago: northern hemisphere land masses getting gripped by sub-normal cold:

Source: Cropped from Weatherbell

“That’s wild. That’s something we saw back in the 1970s,” Joe notes.

The 1970s also saw energy shortages, and with similar weather patterns. You’d think our leaders would have learned something from all of it. Unfortunately not. Once again a number of countries risk energy shortages this winter.

Of course no forecast is ever certain. But over the years, Joe has often beat the long term forecasts (14+ days out) made by the national weather offices. Goes to show we can learn a lot from weather history.

###

Note from Charles. Joe Bastardi’s warning to Ron Desantis on 9/21 can be seen in retrospect as an incredibly prescient prediction for Hurricane Ian.

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abolition man
November 28, 2022 6:12 am

I can only pray that Joe’s prediction is correct, and that it is cold enough to wake large numbers of people up from their slumbers! Alas, I fear that the fear porn and propaganda have become so addictive that most will merely stir in their sleep and return to the building nightmare!

vuk
Reply to  abolition man
November 28, 2022 8:37 am

It might get even worse, apparently Marina Loa , the world’s largest active volcano has restarted first time after nearly 40 years.

https://phys.org/news/2022-11-hawaii-volcano-world-largest-erupts.html

Last edited 2 months ago by vuk
Ron Long
Reply to  vuk
November 28, 2022 9:01 am

It’s the fault of the CO2 monitor attracting heat. Film at 11:00.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  vuk
November 28, 2022 9:08 am

Muana Loa. And how will that eruption affect the CO2 readings taken on that mountain?

MarkW
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
November 28, 2022 10:15 am

It won’t. They only take measurements when the winds are coming off the oceans.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  MarkW
November 28, 2022 11:26 am

And the largest natural source of CO2 is..? Yes, outgassing from tropical oceans. So, the world’s most active volcano, in the centre of the worlds largest ocean, which is itself surrounded by the “ring of fire”. Which direction can the wind come from that isn’t a CO2 source?

MarkW
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
November 28, 2022 3:01 pm

Exactly how much out gassing does does .03C over 20 years cause?

The closest of those volcanoes is thousands of miles away.
Do you have any evidence that the rate of vulcanism on the ring of fire has increased?

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  MarkW
November 28, 2022 4:52 pm

No, but that’s not my point. Hawaii is in the tropical ocean, the largest natural source of CO2, more than 50% of the total, even without any “global warming”. Kilauea has been constantly erupting since 1983, and lava has been flowing into the sea from above, also from the sea bed for maybe thousands of years. How much CO2 is released from the water by lava at 2000ºC?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpz4fXH7nuo

I only mentioned the ring of fire to make the point that there is nowhere upwind of any CO2 source in the middle of the Pacific.

MarkW
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
November 28, 2022 8:18 pm

If the water isn’t warming, then the amount out gassed will always equal the amount absorbed. The oceans are not a source of CO2. If anything they are a sink, since as the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, a portion of that CO2 will get absorbed by the oceans to bring air and ocean back into balance.

While lava is hot, there isn’t much of it. Not compared to the volume of the oceans. Yes, the water in immediate contact with the lava warms up and loses CO2. then it moves away from the lava, cools off, and reabsorbs that CO2.

As to the ring of fire. Every point on the planet is downwind of these volcanoes. Once again you are losing track of the relative volumes of gas being released from volcanoes, vs the size of the atmosphere as a whole.

Beyond that, if these volcanoes were a measurable contributor to the world’s CO2 supply, then they should show up quite prominently in the charts made by the OCO satellites.
If tropical oceans were a measurable source of CO2, it would also show in these charts.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  MarkW
November 29, 2022 2:17 am

OK, so it’s perfectly valid to ignore large local sources of CO2 and claim it’s the average for the planet. Got it.

MarkW
Reply to  Right-Handed Shark
November 29, 2022 11:13 am

That’s not what I said, and you know it.
I showed you how they avoid having these large local sources contaminate their readings.
Don’t get petulant just because what you want to believe isn’t so.

Right-Handed Shark
Reply to  MarkW
November 29, 2022 5:27 pm

Petulance? No. Sarcasm, very possibly. It just occurs to me that if you want to compare current atmospheric CO2 with ancient ice cores, maybe you should do it far away from any source of CO2, whether natural or man made. Like maybe where they take the ice cores from.

doonman
Reply to  MarkW
November 30, 2022 12:42 pm

They only take measurements when they can get to the observatory. But the lava has now prevented that.

joe x
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
November 28, 2022 1:54 pm

not to worry jim, the models will take care of it.

rbabcock
Reply to  vuk
November 28, 2022 9:37 am

The big Kahuna are the explosive volcanoes like Tonga or Mt Penatubo that blast aerosols and particulates into the stratosphere and even those seem to be “waking up”. A couple more Tonga’s and put another log on the fire (in July).

JC
Reply to  rbabcock
November 28, 2022 10:14 am

Mauna Loa biggest eruption ever was a VEI 2 and has only had 3 of them since 8050 BCE. Tonga was a VEI 3-4, Pinatubo was a VEI 6 which makes the biggest Mauna Loa eruption ever look like old faithful on a bad day.

BurlHenry
Reply to  rbabcock
November 28, 2022 8:07 pm

Rbabcock:

Although rated a VEI5 eruption, Tonga spewed only about 0.2 Megatons of SO2 aerosols into the stratosphere (versus about 20 Megatons for Pinatubo.
This is the average amount for a VEI4 eruption, which causes about 0.2 deg. C. of cooling, so a couple more Tongas would be nothing to worry about.

The current Hawaii eruption will probably be less than a VEI4, with a barely noticeable climatic effect

JC
Reply to  vuk
November 28, 2022 9:41 am

Mauna Loa is big in size, (27,000 feet high from ocean bottom) but packs a very small explosive punch, which means it isn’t going to have any impact on climate. The largest VEI eruption was a 2 in 1868, Since 8050 BCE it has had approx. 64 eruptions with five: VEI 1 events and three: VEI 2 events.

JC
Reply to  JC
November 28, 2022 10:15 am

The rest of the 50 some eruptions were VEI zero events, which is probably what this eruption will be. I guess you never know. History has the option of being totally non-predictive.

JC
Reply to  JC
November 28, 2022 12:48 pm

I spent two summers in the mid-1960’s at Camp Smith (Kilauea Military Camp or KMC) which became the Kilauea National park. Volcano’s and weather were my hobbies and we lived on base at Pearl Harbor during the Vietnam years so transport was simple and it was nearly free for me to be there when my Dad was in Nam. I walked right up to the Kilauea crater and inch from the edge looking a mile down onto smoldering crusted lake of lave through the sulfur smoke. Mt Mauna Loa was in view 3-4 miles away and occasionally would be white capped in the AM. The ground rumbled a little often. I wore out multiple pairs of sneakers walking miles to the crater in a sea of glassy gravel and ash. We took bus tours to the black sand beaches to warm our selves up from the cool elevation of KMC. Sulfur vents every where. I collected a lot of volcanic glass and sulfur (for home made gun power and fire works). We hiked to towns destroyed by lava flows and walked over many still warm lava flows all the way to the Pacific. I was both disappointed and glad that Kilauea and Mauna Loa were not explosive volcanoes…. glad that I wasn’t at risk but sad it was never going to blow it’s top like Tambora! (VEI 7) it would have been fun to have to wear sweaters on Oahu. So much for dumb kids. LOL

vuk
Reply to  vuk
November 28, 2022 10:21 am

The last 250 years timeline of the Mauna Loa eruptions.
http://volcanolive.com/maunaloa.html

Redge
Reply to  vuk
November 28, 2022 10:14 pm

If that blows the Misleadia will report it as being a short reprieve from global warming which will resume right after this break and it will be worse than evahhhhh

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  abolition man
November 28, 2022 9:06 am

In the UK greedy energy companies have been lined up as the bad guys depriving “hard working people” of energy

gezza1298
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
November 28, 2022 11:43 am

The UK energy market is a complete and utter mess that new multi-millionaire Prime Minister Sushi is too incompetent to do anything about. It goes from generation to supply. The energy supply companies – now mainly foreign owned – are certainly working against their customers. And who is that surprised that so called ‘smart’ meters have the ability to be remotely configured to be pre-payment.

Nick Graves
Reply to  gezza1298
November 29, 2022 12:22 am

More like Rishi Dhansak – the lentils might add a superficially creamy appearance, but there is a definite bitter aftertaste from the tamarind.

alexwade
Reply to  abolition man
November 28, 2022 9:49 am

Whenever a person asks me to support their candidate in the election, I always first ask them to name 3 things he has done to make my life better. To this day, the only people who could even give me one thing were Trump supporters. I then go on to ask them why I should support someone who, by their own admission, has done nothing to make their life better.

I have concluded from this and the last election that people are aware that their candidate is a hypocrite, corrupt to the core, and does nothing for them. But they still vote to the scoundrel because they have been led to believe that the other person is worse. Based on what evidence? Only on propaganda. Make no mistake: the media will lie to and sleep well at night. They are a vital tool in the ultra-corrupt, useless politician.

Here is the US, people know the democrats caused inflation, many know the COVID lockdowns were nothing but lies, they know the democrats have done nothing for them but have only made their life worse. But they still voted for them because, and only because, the republicans might ban abortion.

The fact is, even if 10 million Americans freeze to death this winter, the masses will never wake up from their slumber. Politicians are masters of making you think things will be worse if the other guy wins. They could personally spit in your face, cut off both your thumbs, and then make you pay for the surgery, and those people would still vote for them because they promised not to bad abortion. Absolutely nothing will wake these people up.

Matthew Bergin
Reply to  alexwade
November 28, 2022 12:24 pm

It is so sad that every word you wrote is true

Lee Riffee
Reply to  alexwade
November 28, 2022 3:16 pm

Yes, they are very much like battered women who continue to go back to their abusive partners.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  abolition man
November 28, 2022 4:19 pm

Joe Bastardi’s predictions are usually correct. He and his partner, my co-author Joe D’Aleo are two of the best weather forecasters on the planet, in terms of their strong predictive track records. This is especially true of their long-term forecasts.

You want Joe to be correct – I want him to be wrong. As he wrote me: “It’s looking dire”.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/26/theres-no-emergency-dissident-climatologist-dr-judith-curry-on-climate-change/#comment-3642878
[excerpt]
 
On 20Sep2022, Joe Bastardi wrote me noting his concern for a very cold Europe this winter.
I wrote
”I wanted this Summary published because, IF I am correct and there is a huge cull of the elderly and poor this winter, I want these pseudo-green killers in Britain and Germany to be prosecuted.
There is a powerful logic that says no rational person or group could be this utterly obtuse, this wrong, for this long – they knew what they were doing.”
 
See my 28July2022 comment:
The big cull of the elderly of Europe will happen this winter – we predicted it in 2002 and 2013 – it was all terribly costly – in dollars and lives – and all entirely avoidable – a willful squandering of the lives of innocents. Crimes against humanity.

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
November 28, 2022 8:14 pm

Here is my Doom-and-Gloom SUMMARY referred to above.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/27/national-grid-warns-britons-of-blackouts-on-really-cold-evenings/#comment-3628512
[excerpt]
More about:
Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis
 
I think Joe Bastardi and his partner Joe D’Aleo are among the very best long-term weather forecasters, and I take their predictions very seriously. In a personal email to me, Joe wrote, ”It’s dire looking” and I agreed with him.
I recently concluded that “The (Covid-19) vaxxed are screwed”. It’s too late to turn that around; the damage has been done. I feel the same way about the Brits and Germans this winter – if Joe B’s cold forecast holds true, “The elderly and poor of Europe are screwed”. I am not happy about any of this. It was ALL the avoidable result of Covid and Climate false hysteria.
Most scientists are happy when their predictions are correct – I’ll be happy if mine are wrong.

Last edited 1 month ago by Allan MacRae
Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
November 30, 2022 6:56 pm

PREDICTION OF THE CARNAGE THIS WINTER IN EUROPE
The cull of the elderly and poor
 
We published the important conclusions to this debate in 2002 and nothing has changed:
The alleged Climate Crisis is a fifty-year-old scam, and “green energy” is not green and does not produce much useful energy.
The Climate scammers have wasted trillions of dollars and millions of lives on fraud.
 
FOR THE RECORD, WE PUBLISHED IN 2002:
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.”
2. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.”
– by Sallie Baliunas (Astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian), Tim Patterson (Paleoclimatologist, Carleton U), Allan MacRae (Professional Engineer, retired (Queen’s U, U of Alberta)
I PUBLISHED ON SEPTEMBER 1, 2002 in the Calgary Herald:
3. “If [as we believe] solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
 
I UPDATED MY GLOBAL COOLING PREDICTION IN 2013:
3a. “I suggest global cooling starts by 2020 or sooner. Bundle up.”
[Some say global cooling started in Feb2016, but I prefer Feb2020.]
 
AN OPEN LETTER TO BARONESS VERMA
British Undersecretary for Energy and Climate Change, 31Oct2013
By Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc.(Eng.), M.Eng.
[excerpt]
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
See CorrectPredictions.ca and my papers listed therein for proof.
 
Allan MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., Calgary 
https://energy-experts-international.com/
 

Allan MacRae
Reply to  Allan MacRae
November 30, 2022 7:17 am

Test

fdemaris
November 28, 2022 6:19 am

Between the cold winter and the mass starvation in food-importing areas of the world as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent disruptions to food and fertilizer markets, the general public is likely to go into 2024 extremely disillusioned with the Greens and their utopia.

HotScot
Reply to  fdemaris
November 28, 2022 8:20 am

What has Sri Lanka’s predicament got to do with Ukraine?

What has Holland’s impending agricultural disaster got to do with Ukraine?

Both were planned long in advance of Russia intervening in Ukraine and are down to political and social suicide at the hands of insane green politics.

It took a global war across continents to reduce the UK to rationing in the 1940’s. We have a war in a tiny part of eastern Europe and suddenly it’s the cause of world shortages.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  HotScot
November 28, 2022 9:20 am

Ukraines Top 10 exports by value

  1. Iron, steel: US$13.1 billion (19.9% of total exports)
  2. Cereals: $11.8 billion (18%)
  3. Ores, slag, ash: $7 billion (10.7%)
  4. Animal/vegetable fats, oils, waxes: $6.9 billion (10.5%)
  5. Electrical machinery, equipment: $3.2 billion (4.8%)
  6. Machinery including computers: $2.1 billion (3.2%)
  7. Oil seeds: $2.1 billion (3.2%)
  8. Wood: $1.9 billion (2.9%)
  9. Food industry waste, animal fodder: $1.7 billion (2.6%)
  10. Articles of iron or steel: $1.2 billion (1.9%)

https://www.worldstopexports.com/ukraines-top-10-exports/#:~:text=Ukraine%E2%80%99s%20Top%2010%20Exports%201%20Iron%2C%20steel%3A%20US%2413.1,%283.2%25%29%208%20Wood%3A%20%241.9%20billion%20%282.9%25%29%20More%20items

About 14 billion US$, contrast USA
Oil seeds: $30.2 billion
Cereals: $28.2 billion

HotScot
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
November 28, 2022 9:31 am

So why are they an impoverished, corrupt, violent country with all this revenue?

Which still doesn’t negate the fact that whilst it’s a small, tin pot state on the far eastern border of Europe the argument goes it’s brought the planet to its knees.

Rubbish. It’s insane green politics now being promoted by major western governments that’s doing the damage.

The only reason such a big deal is being made of it is to keep the Biden crime syndicate out of orange jump suits.

MCourtney
Reply to  HotScot
November 28, 2022 11:17 am

Impoverished? Worldometer puts them 60th in the world for GDP (out of 190). Not bad for a post-Soviet country besieged by its neighbour.

Corrupt? Again, they are far from the bottom. 122nd out of 180 – about the same as Mexico at 124th. Perhaps they are better at fighting off the influence of their larger northern neighbour?

Violent? OK. It’s a warzone. But they were invaded. They didn’t invade anyone else. They even voluntarily gave away their nuclear weapons as a sign of pacific intentions to Russia.

You seem to think that Ukraine is not worth befriending. But that’s far from the truth. Ukraine is fighting for its freedom and will fight for its future too.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  MCourtney
November 28, 2022 1:08 pm

Ukraine has joined a pretty long list of countries that have suffered from Soviet/Russia putting them right. Poland, Hungary, East Germany, Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia, Czechoslovakia, Afghanastan, Syria and Chechnya and probably more.
If the press are to be believed then Belarus has blotted its copybook with Putin.
Personally I think the list of mysterious deaths of more than a couple of Russian dissadents shows what kind regime you’re dealing with. As my dad used to say “I wouldn’t trust him any further than I could throw the Queen Mary”

HotScot
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
November 28, 2022 4:19 pm

Nothing mysterious about the murder of, from memory, 11 unarmed Russian soldiers who surrendered to Ukrainian forces and were executed by shots to the head.

Ukrainian forces were so proud of it they posted the whole video on the internet.

MarkW
Reply to  HotScot
November 28, 2022 8:20 pm

Of course there are the instances where Russian soldiers killed everyone in villages they passed through, including women and children.

Why are you so desperate to convince yourself that the Ukrainians are the villains here and Russians innocent?

Last edited 1 month ago by MarkW
HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
November 30, 2022 7:23 am

I will repeat your comment:

Do you have any evidence to support that? For example, documentation that everybody in the video was actual Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, not just actors using special effects?

Have you checked to see if the site where this was allegedly posted was actually connected to the Ukraine military and isn’t just another Russian propaganda site?

MarkW
Reply to  HotScot
November 28, 2022 8:24 pm

Do you have any evidence to support that? For example, documentation that everybody in the video was actual Russian and Ukrainian soldiers, not just actors using special effects?

Have you checked to see if the site where this was allegedly posted was actually connected to the Ukraine military and isn’t just another Russian propaganda site?

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
November 30, 2022 6:18 am

That’s desperate. This tragedy is being formally investigated.

John Dilks
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2022 9:20 pm

Are you talking about the incident where the Russians pretended to surrender and the last one started shooting at the Ukrainians? That is called perfidy and is a war crime. When that happens you have no idea who else is involved that may be holding a grenade or another gun, so for safety you shoot them all.

Last edited 1 month ago by John Dilks
HotScot
Reply to  John Dilks
November 30, 2022 6:47 am

One started shooting, so they executed the other 10? Whilst lying face down on the ground you shoot them in the back of the head.

No idea if its the same incident however whilst I know I’m subject to western propaganda, I also know for certain I’m not subject to Russian propaganda as I don’t live in Russia.

I suspect you are inclined to fall for western propaganda and believe a story that supports your belief in what side is good and bad.

MarkW
Reply to  MCourtney
November 28, 2022 3:06 pm

A few weeks ago, someone tried to convince me that Japan was justified in attacking the US because the US was refusing to sell oil to the Japanese after their invasion of China.

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
November 28, 2022 4:21 pm

I wonder how the west would react if Japan invaded China today?

MarkW
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2022 11:18 am

How is that relevant to this discussion?
First off neither country is comparable to what they were in the 1930’s. If anything the roles are reversed with China being the expansionist power.
China these days is a lot like Russia, they both need foreign crisis in order to distract their populations from their internal problems.

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
November 30, 2022 6:51 am

You brought the subject of Japan invading China up, not me.

My question was, would America refuse to sell oil to Japan if it invaded China today?

Probably not. Smacks of hypocrisy does it not?

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
November 30, 2022 7:28 am

How is that relevant to this discussion?

“This discussion” began with the effects of the Ukraine conflict, not the rights and wrongs of it.

You reduced it to finger pointing with your continuing obsession with Putin.

HotScot
Reply to  MCourtney
November 28, 2022 4:15 pm

Western Ukraine has been attacking eastern Ukraine since 2014. But that’s OK as the Biden crime syndicate have been cashing in. As soon as Russia comes to the aid of eastern Ukraine it’s suddenly all their fault.

Forget the last 8 years of war in the country, Putin man bad.

Mr David Guy-Johnson
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2022 8:09 am

Hilarious

MarkW
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2022 11:19 am

Putin is bad, no matter how much you don’t want to believe it.

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
November 30, 2022 7:19 am

And Zelensky is a paragon of virtue I suppose?

With a popularity rating in Russia exceeding 80% it seems Putin’s not nearly as bad as the current US President. Nor previous ones who have rampaged across the world causing death and mayhem. Nor do I exclude certain UK PM’s from that.

At least Putin has the excuse his borders are being directly threatened by NATO’s incursion into Ukraine. What’s America’s excuse for exporting war across the planet nowhere near its borders? Including falsely claiming WMD’s in Iraq? 1M people dead, for what?

John Dilks
Reply to  HotScot
November 29, 2022 9:24 pm

There is no Eastern Ukraine. There is only occupied Ukraine, LPR, DPR and Crimea. Occupied by Russians after an invasion.

HotScot
Reply to  John Dilks
November 30, 2022 7:23 am

Ask an eastern Ukrainian if there’s an eastern Ukraine.

You don’t get to draw the map of the world. This fight has nothing to do with the west. At best Germany and bordering former eastern bloc nations get a say in what’s going on.

Other than the Biden family crime syndicate covering up it’s activities in the region, WTF has it to do with America or NATO?

pigs_in_space
Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2022 1:53 pm

You ex-plod HS are a nutcase and have obviously never been in Ukraine.

FYI eastern Ukraine and Crimea were ethnically cleansed by Stalin.
FYI Eastern Ukraine was developed by French, Belgian and British funding, to the extent that Donetsk is not Russian, never has been, the city Hughhosvka was built by a WELSHMAN.

You just carry on pumpingout shitty pro-putin propaganda.
You are just as bad as that other A-hole running an illegal militia,and giving Moscow kids shit school food, running a troll factory… Prighozin

In fact I am starting to wonder if you aren’t being paid by him to blast out your shit about Ukraine, a country you know F-all about.

HotScot
Reply to  pigs_in_space
December 1, 2022 2:57 am

I provide the facts. I don’t take sides, unlike you.

I wonder who you’ll be hating if Poland march into western Ukraine to retake their historic lands?

pigs_in_space
Reply to  HotScot
November 30, 2022 1:48 pm

you ex-plod HS are one very sick guy!

HotScot
Reply to  pigs_in_space
December 1, 2022 2:59 am

For providing facts?

Judging by your cult stance on the Ukraine conflict you consider climate scepticism as just another cult for you to follow.

quelgeek
Reply to  fdemaris
November 28, 2022 8:35 am

If something bad were to happen I am not sure there would be any disillusion.

The general public has been thoroughly persuaded that man-made climate change will cause all kinds of calamity. When a calamity comes along the public will think it was caused by man-made climate change, just as was foretold. They will clamor for more green utopia.

(I hope to be shown I am wrong.)

(Actually, more than that, I hope there is no calamity this winter.)

Last edited 2 months ago by quelgeek
PCman999
Reply to  quelgeek
November 28, 2022 9:12 am

That’s my big worry – everything bad has been blamed on the boogyman Climate Change and most believe it – especially after the traitorous media reinforces the idea with ample amounts of propaganda.

Is it a “conspiracy theory” to suggest that the current situation will give rise to totalitarian regimes, like those in the 1920s and 30s, leading up to WW2?

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  quelgeek
November 28, 2022 1:58 pm

I hear you, but a calamity sooner rather than later might reduce the ultimate extent of the “green carnage.”

Lee Riffee
Reply to  quelgeek
November 28, 2022 4:07 pm

The way I see it is the situation is very much like lots of ancient cultures that worshipped various deities who were believed to control the weather (and climate) and thus insure a good harvest. These cultures almost always included some sort of sacrifice to these agricultural gods, anything from valuables (including animals) and all the way up to other humans. If the required sacrifices were not made, then calamity would be sure to happen when said deities did not get what they demanded. If there was a late frost, a flood, a bad storm, hail, or whatever, surely one of the gods was very angry and the only way to try to prevent such disasters was more sacrifice.
In a psychological sense, it is basically the same thing – scare the average citizen with the threat of disaster (in these cases natural disasters) to the point that they are ready and willing to offer up gold, jewels, livestock or even their first-born child. All in all making them believe that the high priests have some control over ever demanding deities (or simply the weather itself).

However, one could forgive ancient peoples, as they had no knowledge of weather patterns and various things that can govern them.

These days there should be no excuse for people being able to be BS’d so easily.

PCman999
Reply to  fdemaris
November 28, 2022 9:07 am

All the disruptions and costs skyrocketing are due to government intervention starting… actually government intervention getting worse after COVID started. Everything was already royally bunged before the Russians invaded.

quelgeek
Reply to  PCman999
November 28, 2022 11:39 am

Yes. War in Ukraine is to blame for one or probably two transient price spikes in natural gas, but the price was already elevated by late 2021, well before the invasion, and the price has subsided back to more or less that elevated level now. Whatever is going on with European gas prices, war is not the explanation.

Steve Case
November 28, 2022 6:20 am

Personal observations since the late ‘50s says that winters in Milwaukee have warmed up to the degree that cold snaps of around twenty below Fahrenheit for days on end have not happened since the ‘90s.

I will be surprised if we get a several day long cold snap like that this coming winter.

I’m away from my desk top otherwise I’d include a link to the Wisconsin Climatology Office.

JC
Reply to  Steve Case
November 28, 2022 12:21 pm

Bitter cold winters come and go and they are fun to remember. In PA 2013, 2012, 1993, 1986, 1976-, 1977, 1978, then a couple in the 1960s I nearly froze in Richmond VA in Feb 1977 trying to heat a large wood frame house built in the 1884 with small shallow coal fire places and no central heat. Apparently, the 1977 cold was aberrant even for the 11880’s Richmond Va. In the 1930’s and 1940’s some of the most bitter cold years also had the hottest summers. This was certainly true for 1977. What you don’t want is aberrant unseasonal cold during the growing seasons. During the cooling trend that Bastardi predicted for 2011-2013 brought unseasonal cooling and threated the Alberta wheat crop. You can have mild winters and cool wet summers and have it have a major impact on grain crops above 50-55th longitude, especially when they are covered with ice and snow during harvest time but cause you have to wait 3 weeks to plant in the Spring because the ground was too wet and cold to plant.

Tom Abbott
November 28, 2022 6:24 am

From the article: “Goes to show we can learn a lot from weather history.”

Yes, we can!

We can learn that CO2 is not the control knob of the Earth’s atmosphere, among other things.

186no
Reply to  Yooper
November 28, 2022 9:08 am

He has a signal talent to cutting right to the core of the “subject” – I don’t “get” everything he opines about but that amounts to very little. I consider the “nomenclature” that he is right wing (a transparent nonsense) to be irrefutable evidence he speaks common sense to the (globalist) control freaks and I reckon that is enough for the trolls to be wound up and let loose.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Tom Abbott
November 28, 2022 9:23 am

‘We can learn that CO2 is not the control knob of the Earth’s atmosphere…’

At least it hasn’t been at any point during the current Cenozoic era, but hey, never say never!

JC
Reply to  Tom Abbott
November 28, 2022 9:58 am

We don’t even know what all the Earth’s climate control knobs are nor their operational relationship to one another. C02 maybe a climate factor of some degree but it is completely premature to conclude climate causation on any one factor. We do know what the big factors are, Sun and the related factor of the Earths orbit, Volcanism, Big asteroid impacts, and ambient heating from the core. To build fallacious consensual scientific paradigms from unproven hypothesis just slows down science dealing with and learning from reality. The silliness can go in both directions: A) a global warming movement to a, B) imminent ice age movement, each cancelling the other out because they are political (the sky is falling, chicken little) agendas not science. This is the problem with mixing science and politics. In the end, the deep pockets will leverage fear mongering silliness and power fallacious scientific paradigms, cold or warm.

Jim Gorman
Reply to  JC
November 28, 2022 10:41 am

Something I have been unable to find is any scientific papers describing how much CO2 absorbed radiation warms N2/O2 versus conduction/convection at the surface/atmosphere boundary.

Dealing with average insolation is a joke when T^4th is involved and insolation is spread by cos(θ) over the earth and varies by sin(α) as the earth rotates.

It would be better to multiply the average by something like 1.8 and assume that is distributed over ±60° with the other 20% over the ±60 – 90°. Then see how much leaves through saturated CO2.

JC
Reply to  Jim Gorman
November 28, 2022 12:01 pm

Interesting inquiry but beyond my scope and expertise. I have not read any studies proving the greenhouse hypothesis. It would be nice to have a more detailed synopsis of how CO2 operates in the atmosphere. At least for me to have more knowledge about CO2. What impressed me more was the impact of the the cooling and shrinking of the troposphere and upper reaches of the Stratosphere during the solar minimums of the 23rd and 24th cycles. The compression of the upper atmosphere due to Tropospheric cooling during the last two deep minimums could have some sort of impact on weather, especially when paired with the periods of high cosmic radiation impacting earth during minimums. I’d love to read a paper about compression and decompression along frontal boundaries during periods of Tropospheric cooling and high Cosmic radiation. Could explain the intensification of storms that climate change people use to support the carbon hypothesis. Does seem that trace level CO2 variations would not play much of a role if a true weather dynamic is operating during minimums due to tropospheric cooling. But this is the babble of a layman meteorological hobbyist and social statistician.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Tom Abbott
November 28, 2022 2:00 pm

We can also learn that “climate change” aka global WARMING is most definitely NOT making the WEATHER worse.

THERE ARE NO “CLIMATE DISASTERS.”

John Shewchuk
November 28, 2022 6:29 am

See that, CO2 is also a cooling gas.

Sweet Old Bob
November 28, 2022 6:35 am

Thanks WUWT and P . G .

This looks to be a serious event .

Hope people get prepared!

Joe Crawford
November 28, 2022 6:39 am

Must be time to gather up the fire wood closer to the house. Thanks for the warning Joe :<)

186no
Reply to  Joe Crawford
November 28, 2022 8:52 am

They have done this in the parts of Europe we have visited, summer and winter, for decades but most noticeably this year, the length of wooden staves stacked in the lea of the direction from which the snow usually comes, appears to be longer but that might be my imagination…

John Oliver
November 28, 2022 6:44 am

When you read first hand historical accounts for example peoples diaries, logs minutes of town meetings, going back hundreds of years; guess what? Climate changes. Political leadership around the world is in the hands of a bunch of fools, Europe, US, China, Russia everywhere. Faint bit of hope in the US. Do something Donate to organizations that are pushing back, this is going to be a long struggle.

Steve Case
Reply to  John Oliver
November 28, 2022 7:37 am

Yes, so far this has been going on fo over forty years!

JC
Reply to  Steve Case
November 28, 2022 11:42 am

Radical environmentalism was well underway 40 years, global warming as a political movement 32 years, re-labeled to climate change in 2013- 2014 due to the “Pause” and the cold winters, which Bastardi predicted after the minimum of the 23rd cycle The problem is that the fear mongering propaganda and the fallacious consensus paradigm has been leveraged by megalomaniacs who want to ensure power and profits during a period of massive proven reserves of hydrocarbon fuel around the globe. So an environmentalist movement has morph’d into tool of radical centralization and collusion of power and commodity markets. The problem is not that politicians are fools. The problem is they have been leveraged and have far less representative power than they had a generation ago.

strativarius
November 28, 2022 7:01 am

Unless you can show the model is assumption [parameterisation] free, forget it.

2hotel9
Reply to  strativarius
November 28, 2022 8:07 am

I’ll take Joe’s word over the current crop of manipulated computer models any day.

Chemman
Reply to  strativarius
November 28, 2022 8:33 am

Models aren’t reality.

Phil
Reply to  Chemman
November 28, 2022 4:44 pm

There’s nothing wrong with models. The problem is the short forecast horizon. Any forecast beyond that is invalid.

meteormike
November 28, 2022 7:15 am

NAO and AO crash lower to solidly negative in early December which favors transport of bitter cold from high latitudes to middle latitudes. Potential high latitude blocking with abnormally high height anomalies across the high latitudes. This often forces the polar vortex to shift or reform abnormally far south.

meteormike
Reply to  meteormike
November 28, 2022 9:21 am

The models in week 2 are having a tough time with this pattern. Many of them think it will be transient and have extreme variations in the locations of major anomalies that make the difference between near record cold and above average temperatures for days at the end of the week 2 period.

There are the solutions for the just out (11-28-22)12z Canadian ensemble at 384 hours, for instance.

Screenshot 2022-11-28 at 11-20-05 Ensemble Forecasts - Environment Canada.png
meteormike
Reply to  meteormike
November 28, 2022 11:42 am

12z GFS ensembles at the end of 2 weeks are all over the place too.
Many of them feature a deep/cut off low in the Northeast which is a -NAO favored solution.
What happens with the ensemble mean solution, that normally does best is that with this type of pattern, there are enough opposite extremes to average out and make the mean look like its in between, when the reality almost no solutions show the mean.

For instance, if you 10 very negative and 10 very positive numbers, then added them up, you would get an average near 0.
But almost none of the individual solutions would be near 0.

When that happens, the forecast often needs to pick the camp which makes the most sense. In this case, the solidly -AO and -NAO gives us good guidance on choosing the colder solutions because they represent a teleconnection dynamic that helps modulate large scale circulation patterns which often trumps individual model solutions which get too hung up on seeing the trees and not the forest…………missing the big picture because of how the measured data/observations fed into imperfect (programmed) equations affect the outcomes with errors that amplify tremendously with time.
Based on that flaw, this is why a small change in each ensemble member often results in different solutions that amplify with time. With an extreme pattern like this, the amplification of small changes early on is resulting in solutions that are completely different for huge regions.

Average them together and they cancel each other out and the mean is misleading.

Joe and other experienced meteorologists understand this and are going with pattern recognition NOT model averages. This is why they do so well.

Meteorologists worth their oats should be able to beat models.

We are absolutely dependent on the models of course and they are a gift. In fact, the -AO and -NAO forecast comes from model predictions. But human adjustments applying principles that models are unable to represent/incorporate allow meteorologists and objective others to kick the models arse overall when it comes to skill score.

Screenshot 2022-11-28 at 13-08-33 f372.gif (GIF Image 1280 × 1911 pixels) — Scaled (28%).png
ResourceGuy
November 28, 2022 7:21 am

“You’d think our leaders would have learned something from all of it.”

In the modern leadership era, it is better to stall and deflect reality while doubling down on bad public policy for continued support from advocacy armies and media groups.

The tricky part is in blaming your opponent for the obvious trigger event to the downside so that said ‘leadership’ can be present for the next stimulus surge. This is where dominance of the media is most important.

ResourceGuy
November 28, 2022 7:23 am

Looking forward to the next complete freeze of the Great Lakes, including Lake Superior.

186no
Reply to  ResourceGuy
November 28, 2022 8:55 am

You run a snow clearing business?

rah
Reply to  ResourceGuy
November 28, 2022 12:14 pm

Ice fisherman? Or just want an end to potential lake effect?

bonbon
November 28, 2022 7:30 am

Something we never saw in the 1970’s – the NATO destruction of NordStream gas pipelines, wreaking havoc on energy spot prices.
Correction – there was 1 USSR pipeline destroyed by US 1970’s cyber-warfare – turbines and valves on the largest Siberian pipeline caused an explosion so large it registered in satellite images.
Add to that the Russan Federation systematically turning off the entire Ukrainian electric grid – Electric Wars, and it sure looks like NATO warmongers can ruin your whole day. 9 million Ukrainian refugees are now expected by Brussels which will not be able to heat accommodation.
Nature always strikes when people go back to nature, do not build, and assert imperial Rules-based-Order wars.

MarkW
Reply to  bonbon
November 28, 2022 8:18 am

Do you have any evidence that NATO destroyed those pipelines? Or is that just what your Russian handlers told you to say.

BTW, I love the way you blame actions of Russia on NATO.
Are the voices in your head having a party?

kwinterkorn
Reply to  MarkW
November 28, 2022 9:30 am

If you throw red meat in front of hungry tiger, you have chosen the future that follows.

All events of the last decades showed Putin was hungry to take Ukraine.

During Obama/Biden Putin took Crimea and began taking the Donbas region. Obama sent Ukraine blankets.

Trump sent Ukraine blankets. He dropped the MOAB on an Afghan Valley full of Taliban and said we have plenty more. Trump kept delaying withdrawal from Afghanistan, even though he wanted out, because the Taliban refused to behave.

During Trump, unlike during Bush, Obama/Biden, and now Biden, Putin made no new aggressions. Trump made clear he would slay the tiger, not feed it.

Then Biden surrendered Afghanistan in the weakest possible way, without consulting allies, ceding the Baghram airbase and its 5000 imprisoned terrorists and 80 billions worth of weaponry, all to set up a 9/11 photo op.

In September, right after our humiliation in Afghanistan, Putin began assembling 200,000 troops at the Ukraine border, including in Byelorussia. How did Biden respond?

With sanctions, not weapons. Sanctions that have rebounded to crush the world economy while Russia continued to prosper with rising energy and raw materials prices and new Markets in China, India, and most of the world. Green-crippled Europe found it had to continue to finance Putin’s war, even though they speak against it.

When Obama was caught saying, “Never underestimate the ability of Joe Biden to eff things up,” he wasn’t kidding!

Biden threw red meat in front of the tiger we all have known Putin to be.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  kwinterkorn
November 28, 2022 2:50 pm

“In September, right after our humiliation in Afghanistan, Putin began assembling 200,000 troops at the Ukraine border, including in Byelorussia. How did Biden respond?”

The first thing Biden did was offer Zelenski a ride out of the country to safety. Zelenski turned him down.

Biden didn’t think Zelenski stood a chance against Putin and wanted Zelenski to run away and let Putin have what he wanted. That’s what appeasers like Biden do, they run away from murderous dictators, like Biden did in South Vietnam and in Iraq and in Afghanistan.

Some people claim Biden wanted this war in Ukraine, but Biden’s initial actions tell the real story, which is he was perfectly willing to surrender Ukraine to Putin. Biden is just hanging in there now because he can’t think of a way to get out of it without being politically damaged.

If Biden could wash his hands of Ukraine, he would do it, just like he has done all his life.

Yirgach
Reply to  Tom Abbott
November 29, 2022 6:03 am

“Joe Biden” can’t run away from the Ukraine because the MIC and Ukraine own him. Same thing with the CCP. People will starve/freeze this winter because of NATO (US) sanctions and not following the Minsk accord (remember that one?).
What would you do if the Russians put troops and weapons in Mexico and Canada after promising that they would not.
As always, cui bono?

MarkW
Reply to  Yirgach
November 29, 2022 11:22 am

Russian troops were in Cuba up to the collapse of the Soviet Union.
If the US had been threatening either Canada or Mexico with invasion, I would expect them to request help from whoever they could.

Last edited 1 month ago by MarkW
Yirgach
Reply to  Yirgach
November 30, 2022 12:38 pm

So take a look at Section V of the Hunter Biden Laptop report, entitled Influence Peddling. You should read all 634 pages which was finally published in October, 2 years after it was unearthed.
They are a bunch of crooks. Period.

kwinterkorn
Reply to  MarkW
November 28, 2022 9:32 am

That was supposed to be Trump sent Javelin anti-tank missiles, not “blankets”

DanT
November 28, 2022 7:46 am

My silver maple regularly sheds its leaves between Nov. 1 to Nov. 6. This year the leaves were down by Oct. 24. It knew what was coming.

rah
Reply to  DanT
November 29, 2022 4:56 am

Lots of traditional signs of a hard winter coming. If Joe’s forecast is accurate, and I’ll bet it is, the Arctic blast will come before astronomical winter begins.

JC
Reply to  DanT
December 1, 2022 1:55 pm

My Silver maple trees. 3 huge trees had a bumper crop of leaves (double the output from 2018-2020).. It dropped 1/2 of the leaves in the last week of October but didn’t finish until about Nov 6th. Not sure why other than it was the first bright sunny and reasonably dry summer in SE PA since the beginning of the minimum of the 24rd solar cycle. There was one summer during the minimum that July had a 2-3 week during period of significantly reduced solar irradiance due to a persistent large coronal mass ejection…it returned in August for a week or so. I grow a fairly large amount of produce and the quality suffered that year….I am thinking it was 2018 or 2019 and the Silver maples dropped 1/2 of their leaves as green leaves in August with black mold on them it was so damp and dull that summer.

JC
Reply to  JC
December 1, 2022 1:58 pm

That one damp cool summer… my pepper plants produced very poor peppers got diseased up and went belly up in August. This season…same varieties of pepper we had a bumper crop of very high quality peppers and are still eating them. Picked last week and tomatoes as well. It’s been a normal off and on again fall. We are protected against frost due to being on the convection side of a mountain with good cold air drainage. It’s the reason we selected the property and garden site.

Last edited 1 month ago by JC
Rud Istvan
November 28, 2022 7:59 am

Bastardi is probably correct. There is an unusual cold pattern typical of later consecutive years of a La Niña. This winter is predicted to be the third consecutive year of the present La Niña. Going to be very tough for the EU.

Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 8:02 am

The temperature dropped quite sharply above the 60th parallel. Another strong planetary wave appears in the polar vortex belt, breaking up the polar vortex.
comment image
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Ossqss
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 9:29 am

StratObserve 3D Vortex

Spacebar animates it.

Last edited 1 month ago by Ossqss
Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  Ossqss
November 28, 2022 10:16 am

Take a look at the 240 h forecast.

2hotel9
November 28, 2022 8:05 am

Here in western PA we been rather war for November. Almanac is calling for a fairly cold winter, sounds like Joe agrees.

MarkW
Reply to  2hotel9
November 28, 2022 8:20 am

war for November”

bonbon will blame it on NATO.

JC
Reply to  2hotel9
November 28, 2022 12:31 pm

In South Eastern Pa it’s been cycling between normal and unseasonably cold since Spring. Spring was late here…two weeks. It was too cold for my apple trees to be pollinated. We did have Summer heat waves but we got breaks. All together it’s been a normal year weather wise. I have been expecting the minimum of the 24th cycle throw us into a bit of a cooling trend for a couple of years. I love cold and snow in PA so bring it on.

2hotel9
Reply to  JC
November 28, 2022 3:38 pm

We are along the Allegheny River basin, weather here is, well, chaotic. I would love a winter of heavy snow and 30s temps.

Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 8:07 am

The polar vortex will be broken up and the circulation will be similar to that during the Little Ice Age. That is, the Russian high will expand all the way to England and warmer air will go to Svalbard.
comment image
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Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 8:16 am

In North America, the Arctic impact will go west for now.
comment image

rah
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 12:12 pm

Starts in the NW and moves south and east is what I am seeing. But it is not just N. America that is in for it. Europe and the far east are going to get theirs too!

Chemman
November 28, 2022 8:28 am

I’ve been seeing what Joe predicted in my neck of the woods. For November through yesterday my daytime highs are about 7F below long term average and my nighttime lows are about 2.5F below long time averages. Additionally, I expected this because Sept and Oct were below average in temperatures. Normally I can keep my garden going until mid to late November before we get hard freezes but I had to take it down in mid October over hard freezes.

Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 8:50 am

The surface temperature of the North Atlantic has dropped.
comment image

walterr070
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 10:13 am

I’m curious to see what the Nov. 2022 temperature will be in the UAH data.

Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 9:03 am

Solar activity is declining again.
comment image
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JC
November 28, 2022 9:22 am

After the Solar minimum of the 23rd SC cycle,ending in 2009, Bastardi predicted that the winters of 2011, 2012 and 2013 would be colder than normal. It appeared that he was right! 12/2013 Jerusalem had it’s last major snow storm that shut down Ben Gurion. the previous year was 1/1950. January 2010 Snowmaggedon/Snocolypse on East Coast, Philadelphia broke it’s total seasonal snowfall record at 72 inches 2010. Jan/2010 England was referred to as “Snowball” England with record cold and snow. England has successive snowy and cold winters through 2011-2013. In 2012, the US had nearly a record extent of snow going into spring. Greenland blocking, Neutral ENSO to La Nina, impact of a deep solar minimum and a rash of VEI 4 eruptions during the minimum were considered factors in the cold winters. In South Eastern PA, we had two winters with at least a week of sub-zero high temps in 2012 and 2013. In 2013, we had the last continuous winter snow cover from to 13 clippers events with 2-3 inches of snow or less from Jan 8th through the the first week of April at 1000 feet.

Personally, I hope Bastardi is wrong, (but doubt he is). The political situation we are in with the radical greens is irrational. Weather just plays into their leveraged (strange bedfellows benefit from climate change fear mongering) propaganda program no matter what the weather. So you won’t slow them down with actual weather facts. Even if we had glacerization of the Minnesota lakes for 2-3 years they would still be pumping out climate non-sense.

Meanwhile, the reality of a prolonged bad cold snap for the Northern Hemisphere could potentially take out the Alberta wheat crop and other Northern latitude grain crops and push food prices to the moon.

Last edited 1 month ago by JC
Shoki
November 28, 2022 10:00 am

Joe Bastardi is almost always more accurate than the parrots. He bases his forecasts on science and observation, not opaque models.

CO2isLife
November 28, 2022 10:06 am

This CO2 drives warming or climate change is pure nonsense. The only defined mechanism by which CO2 can affect Climate Change is through the thermalization of 15-micron LWIR. That is it. For all intents and purposes, CO2 is a constant in all cross-sectional studies, and if you think of a time series of a chain of cross-sectional studies, CO2 is basically constant. If CO2 is a constant, or its growth rate is constant, then we can start talking about real science.

1) The Quantum Mechanics of a CO2 Molecule don’t change per location, and they don’t change over time.
2) CO2 should cause identical trends regardless of location
3) An increase in CO2 must lead to an increase in warmth according to the GHG Effect, the GHG Effect only describes warming

Here is the evidence:
1) The South Pole has shown no warming with a 30%+ increase in CO2
comment image

2) The US Shows Warming of one trend
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3) Southern Lower Latitudes show 1/2 the rate as the US
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4) The equator shows a different rate
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5) N Hemi warming more than S Hemi
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6) N Pole is warming much more than S Pole
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Basically, the claimed effect of CO2 appears to be dependent upon the location of the molecule. That is nonsense, clearly, something other than CO2 is causing the different slopes in temperature. CO2 won’t warm water, more visible ration does. CO2 is the same at the North as it is at the South Pole, and elsewhere. Bottom like, if you control for the Urban Heat Island Effect and Water Vapor, you will discover that CO2 doesn’t cause warming. NASA Date proves it.

CO2isLife
Reply to  CO2isLife
November 28, 2022 1:49 pm

Correction, it should be 20%+ increase in CO2, not 30%+.

MarkW
Reply to  CO2isLife
November 28, 2022 3:14 pm

If the only thing that impacted temperature was CO2, your graphs would have relevance.
Unfortunately there are many things that impact temperature and many, if not most of them vary by latitude.

JC
November 28, 2022 10:09 am

North Central and Eastern Europe according to the very blurry small map, will be impacted. In the US, Norther Tier Mid-western states. The mid-west will be nothing like December and January 1976-1977 when Chicago was hit with minus -14 degree highs for days with 14-16 mile hour winds.

beng135
November 28, 2022 10:18 am

I watched Bastardi’s weekly video. I can keep reasonably warm unless the power goes out, but severe cold often breeds a major snowstorm/icestorm, and that often causes power outages for me. Not looking forward to it. But as some seem hoping cold would “convince” anyone to change minds, it won’t. Because the meme now isn’t global warming, it was purposely shifted to “climate change” which includes anything.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  beng135
November 28, 2022 10:41 am

It’s only when power outages start to occur that some people will start to wonder if there’s something wrong. And this is just the beginning of real climate change related to solar activity.
http://www.bom.gov.au/archive/oceanography/ocean_anals/IDYOC007/IDYOC007.202211.gif
comment image

Last edited 1 month ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Peta of Newark
November 28, 2022 10:35 am

Meanwhile the UK is running close to the wire and pulling out all the stops and pulling all the favours.
See attached – I cropped the gas generation so as to see the others better but it says ‘Gas – 22.6’

A quick eye-ball of UK tempertures right say the avearge is about 8 or 9 Celsius -no wind and it was quite sunny at a lot of places today.
Pea-soup fog in others mind you. such as out here on the Cambridge Fen

UK Elec Gen 28 Nov 18_20 GMT.PNG
nurtureyourchild
Reply to  Peta of Newark
November 30, 2022 2:16 am

Scary isn’t it, talking emergencies already and winter hasn’t really got under way yet!
I’m in UK too, East Yorkshire. Yesterday the temp didn’t get over 4° all day, only 1° this morning when I got up and only 3° now at 10.00. Zero wind not even a breeze, we’re surrounded by literally hundreds of damn windmills and they’re using up energy we don’t have and no sun because of the fog.
Not that anyone in power seems to give a shit 🤷🏻‍♀️

The last really bad winter we had here was 2012, I remember it well as had a dog go into whelp on the 2nd December but didn’t progress as usual. I decided we should go to the vets for oxytocin injection but we couldn’t get out the drive as the snow was too deep and compacted, and we had a 4×4! Luckily she decided to get on with it herself after the shock of seeing the snow lol. I opened the back door and the snow was like a wall half way up, the lowest temperature I took that year was -15°
I thought in early October we were going to get a bad one this year, all the signs were showing in nature.

Mr Ed
November 28, 2022 10:38 am

Ah the ’70’s…winter of ’78-’79 hands down the worst winter I’ve experienced here in
western MT..
Came in on Thanksgiving with a 30″+ snowstorm then the mercury dropped
below zero and stayed there for over 100 consecutive days. Many days the highs
were -30*F. Frozen water lines buried 9ft deep stayed frozen till the end of June.
I can remember how -5*F days seemed warm. Finally in late February we got a chinook
and it warmed up to 30* for a couple of days the back below zero again.. that warmth
drove the frost even deeper in the ground. Trying to keep machinery running was
a challenge. Had me believing the public narrative that we were headed into
a new ice age.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Mr Ed
November 28, 2022 12:28 pm

and Lake Superior froze completely across

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Mr Ed
November 29, 2022 4:29 am

“Ah the ’70’s…winter of ’78-’79 hands down the worst winter I’ve experienced here in western MT..”

I remember that one. We had three feet of snow here where I live in Oklahoma. It was impossible to drive for days.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
EOM
November 28, 2022 10:51 am

Mauna Loa is a big bleeder, not a dissolved-gas exploder. What may happen is a Big Island that becomes bigger.

Machnee
November 28, 2022 10:56 am

Trudeau and the NDP in Canada have been using the “climate crisis” fiction as a diversion from debt and deficit since 2015. Students do not know what debt is as long as they have their fossil fuel based little phones.

weathernerd
November 28, 2022 11:31 am

Unfortunately, facts don’t matter. The global warming agenda is about tyranny and control.

BE8CC30A-151A-4E74-ADFD-658CC7B9B17E.jpeg
n.n
November 28, 2022 11:33 am

climate cooling… warming… change undeniable, unfalsifiable, a standard of physical systems that keeps the science in play.

rah
November 28, 2022 12:01 pm

Ha! And it comes when the NH snow extent is well above the average for this time of year.
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This trucker is not looking forward to this coming Arctic blast.

Not just the driving in it but dealing with getting the equipment going. It sucks coming in during the wee hours in -15 deg F temps to find your fuel line frozen and brake shoes frozen to the drums. It sucks trying to slide the tandems on trailers when there is ice everywhere and you can’t get traction. And it sucks dealing with frozen trailer brakes and climbing under the trailer and beating on the brake drums with a 3 lb. hammer to get them to release.

One would think that as an old winter warrior I would be used to the difficulties of operating in very cold temps. Everything is harder and slower to accomplish except for the occasional slip that puts you on your ass. But age makes it ever more difficult to deal with the cold and the challenges it brings.

These are the times that try a man’s soul. I will put my head down and push through it but I am thinking that this may be my last winter trucking. We shall see. Sitting in my living room feeding logs into the fire during such times is sounding awfully inviting right now.

ResourceGuy
November 28, 2022 12:26 pm

Humans already have a problem with linear thinking–they don’t need the Climate Crusades making it worse by erasing cycles from the lexicon.

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http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg

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Ben Vorlich
November 28, 2022 1:20 pm

The entire UK wind fleet rated at >25GW is currently generating 0.25GW which by my maths is 1% of capacity and 0.75% of demand. According to my Weather App there’s not going to be much wind until the weekend when things should pick windwise up in Scotland at least.

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/

auto
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
November 28, 2022 3:42 pm

But Little Rishi looks like he’ll go for the more bat-buster option.
Tories are ‘reported’ to be ‘about to’ overturn the ban on onshore wind mills . . . .
Tho it is not clear to me why he thinks more stationary windmills will give more electricity than the stationary windmills we have now.

But I’m not a pollie.

Auto

Tom Abbott
Reply to  auto
November 29, 2022 4:36 am

The old, familiar “Doubling down on stupid”.

Windmills are not producing enough electricity because the wind isn’t blowing, so let’s build more windmills.

Spud Mack
November 28, 2022 1:28 pm

wind mills will haft to work extra hard

MarkW
Reply to  Spud Mack
November 28, 2022 3:16 pm

wind mills will have to work
for once

observa
November 28, 2022 2:27 pm

Don’t worry as long as the climate changers have Demand Flexibility Service whereby they pay poor folks to freeze in the dark-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/other/electricity-supplies-tight-as-national-grid-issues-two-separate-notices/ar-AA14Enwa
Just make sure you’re not a poor folk saving the planet.

observa
November 28, 2022 3:21 pm

Meanwhile on another planet far far away in a distant Galaxy Teal MP Allegra big Spender is shocked that local taxpayers aren’t funding local Darling Point Tesla owners with street chargers-
https://www.msn.com/en-au/money/markets/lack-of-public-charging-facilities-makes-owning-an-electric-car-a-challenge-for-sydney-residents/ar-AA14EClD
https://www.realestate.com.au/nsw/darling-point-2027/
It’s a tough gig saving the planet but somebody has to do it.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  observa
November 29, 2022 4:45 am

There is a four-bay electric car charger located along the main drag through my hometown, and, although I don’t drive down this highway every day, every time I do drive through there, the chargers are always empty. I have never seen a car being charged at that location. Maybe there are not that many electric cars around here. I don’t know.

I just found myself a gas station that sells gasoline without any added ethanol. I’m a happy camper. That’s where I’m buying my gasoline from now on. Of course, it was high octane and cost $3.66 per gallon.

I blame Joe Biden for the high gasoline prices.

Martin
November 28, 2022 5:27 pm

Weather history is probably better but models pay the bills with no repercussions if they are wrong.

roha1946@gmail.com.au
November 28, 2022 8:14 pm

This proves Climate Change is real and we’re all going to burn to death in a year or two unless we drive electric cars powered by windmills.

BurlHenry
November 28, 2022 8:25 pm

Joe Bastardi is predicting a severe winter based upon its similarity to the weather of the 1970’s.

However, the weather of the 1970’s was due to a massive increase of Industrial SO2 aerosol emissions into the atmosphere, which climbed to 136 million tons by 1979, cooling the planet.

Nothing like that now. We could see some wild weather, which happens when global temperatures increase, but my prediction would be that (globally) it will be warmer than last winter.

Elliot W
Reply to  BurlHenry
November 28, 2022 9:07 pm

“it will be warmer than last winter”

Even if it’s much colder than last winter, you can be confident the news media and the politicians will tell us all it was the warmest winter evah.
And the tens of thousands of winter cold deaths were due to Covid, racism, or both.
And that deadly power outages were caused by greedy fossil fuel companies, not the disruption to the grid caused by unreliable wind and solar generators.

See? We both can play at predictions.

rah
Reply to  BurlHenry
November 30, 2022 12:53 am

Not true. Joe compared the winter that is coming to what was experienced in the 70’s.

But his forecast is based on analogs of weather patterns from past years and not just the 70’s.

He also notes the fact that the MJO is moving from phase 6 which is a warmer phase towards phases 7,8, and 1, which are cold phases. Specifically says that phase 8 “sets off triggers”.

Plus the AO (Arctic Oscillation), EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) and NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) are all going negative just as they did in the analog years showing similar weather patterns.

The one significant difference between now and the weather we were having in the 70’s is that the AMO (Atlantic Multi decadal Oscillation) was in the negative back then and is in the positive now.

Joe has “old eyes” he says. What that means is he has been at this so long that he can look at current weather and pressure patterns and teleconnections and knows off the top of his head where to look in the records for times when the patterns were similar and then from them can check out what the weather in a particular area actually was.

Last edited 1 month ago by rah
Ireneusz Palmowski
November 28, 2022 11:59 pm

The graphic shows that the lows from the Atlantic reaches over Svalbard, almost to the pole. This means that the polar vortex is broken up. Real winter is approaching Poland. Europe get ready for the east wind.
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Last edited 1 month ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Ireneusz Palmowski
November 29, 2022 1:45 am

Valentina Zharkova: “in the next 30 years global warming will be the last thing we think about.”

ImNoneBidenary
November 29, 2022 2:59 am

Maybe we need to increase taxes now and get rid of fossil fuels. Just cut them off because I guess now we only have months to live….right marxists?

pjar
November 29, 2022 9:50 am

So… thank goodness for renewables then, without which we would currently be missing the entire 2.5GW, out of the 41.6GW we are currently using. Interestingly, and worryingly perhaps, 8GW or 19% is coming from Interconnectors in Europe. What could possibly go wrong?

November 29, 2022 5:13 pm

In mid-January 1976 I left a hot summer Sydney and disembarked at Amsterdam. It was cold. The canals were freezing. Four nights in a row had minimum temperatures below -8C (17.6F). People threw bicycles into the canals quite often as Wiki notes – nearly 15,000 bikes are pulled out from more than 160 canals in Amsterdam every year, but the first night dawned with bicycles unsunk, sitting on a few inches of ice. I wish my camera had been ready, but alas.
http://www.geoffstuff.com/amsterdam.jpg
……………..

Why mention this? because strange events happened to global climate around 1975-6. The great Pacific climate shift has been named. Scientists have not yet provided a complete description of the change. Causes, events, consequences, parallels, mechanisms are mostly missing or guesses.Yes, there was a lot of talk about a coming global winter with threats to our ways of life in the mid-70s. from those few of us who were there and remember it.
It is starting to look as if the global warming effort will go down in history as a fable from 1975 to 2010. Look forward to further climate cooling, although the weather will give us some quite hot days, getting less frequent as time passes. Watch for alarmists trying to turn these into lasting signs of existential crisis for humankind.
What a sham! Geoff S

zzebowa
November 30, 2022 12:50 am

The amount of heat lost from the north atlantic with the month of solid storms we have had is staggering. A Hurricane can rip 1000 watts per meter out of the sea. Ad we have had month of storms.

I can see a cold winter coming.

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