The Future of COPs

Guest Humor by Dr Alan Welch FBIS FRAS — 24 November 2022

COP100  

Now COP27 is all over, bar the shouting, a few more facts and figures are available to help in predicting the future of this World Jamboree.

Two charts became available on the CarbonBrief site that showed the number of attendees and the Overrun on the final session.  These have now been analysed and the findings shown below.

Total Attendance.

The attendance figures were extracted from the chart below.

Total numbers, up to COP26, were transferred to an Excel spreadsheet and, like any Climate Investigator worth his salt, analysed Quadratic Curve by applying a.

Projecting the quadratic curve to COP27 gives an attendance of just under 30 thousand compared with an actual figure of about 33 thousand.  Not bad!

Projecting to COP100 results in nearly 413 thousand attendees.  I think Greta Thunberg will be attending, at the age of 92, and will give a major speech entitled “Blah Blah Blah …100 times… Blah Blah Blah).  The projection is shown below

The “acceleration” of attendees is 87 attendees/year2.

Final Session Overrun

 Turning to the overrun figures the data up to COP26 is shown below.

Again, the figures were put into a spreadsheet and give

and

Projecting the Quadratic Curve to COP27 gives an overrun of about 33 hours compared with an actual figure of about 36 hours.  Again, not bad.

The overrun at COP100 is predicted to be 199 hours (1 week, 1 day and 7 hours) and the “acceleration” is 0.025 Hours/year2 (90 seconds/ year2).

Conclusions.

The graphs are so similar to Nerem’s Sea Level predictions [ see here and here ] they must be true!!!

The organisers of COP100 must provide 10 times more parking spots for private jets and nearly an infinite supply of strong coffee.

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Comment by Kip Hansen:

Alan Welch has produced a couple of posts analyzing Sea level Rise Acceleration claims [.pdf] coming out of the sea level group headed by R.S. Nerem at the University of Colorado, Boulder.   Links to Dr. Welch’s posts are in the Conclusions above.

For those of you who have a tendency to take things too seriously, please realize that this post is meant as humor.

# # # # #

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RickWill
November 23, 2022 2:23 pm

The burning question for COP100 prediction is – are electric airplanes still termed “jets”?

And in addition to the strong coffee they will need a humungous solar farm to charge all the batteries in those aircraft.

I do not even know if there will be batteries able to fly aircraft close to supersonic speed. Can you imagine Al Gore (or his protege) flying in on a propeller driven aircraft. That may be the cost of going woke.

abolition man
Reply to  RickWill
November 23, 2022 7:29 pm

Rick,
You’re forgetting that these are the elites we’re talking about! Alternative aviation is for rubes! They will still be allowed to fly private jets due to their attempts to save humanity from the Climatastrophe scheduled a mere twenty years past COP 100!
If both murder and conspiracy have no statute of limitations, how many years does a conspirator to commit murder have to be concerned about legal jeopardy? Just asking for an friend! I think I understand now why future COPs will not be held in the US!

Last edited 3 days ago by abolition man
Coeur de Lion
November 23, 2022 2:25 pm

Ridiculous! They can’t possibly go on to 100 COPs!

Ron Long
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 23, 2022 5:39 pm

Yea, because it is Ridiculous, they will do it.

Mike McMillan
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 23, 2022 9:12 pm

No chance. They can’t squeeze 100 into the twelve years we have left.

62empirical
Reply to  Coeur de Lion
November 23, 2022 8:33 pm

I would estimate the COP Tipping Point at COP30. We MUST do something before then!

macha
November 23, 2022 2:41 pm

Since these are models, the future is set…right? Better start preparing.

mleskovarsocalrrcom
November 23, 2022 2:43 pm

Pretty soon COP attendees will grow to the point they can declare themselves a country and vie for climate reparations.

RickWill
Reply to  mleskovarsocalrrcom
November 23, 2022 3:18 pm

They already have the reparations and the UN has a far higher status than country. There is no law they need abide. They happily discard human rights when it does not fit their prescription of how the hoi pollio should behave.

kalsel3294
November 23, 2022 3:01 pm

Is there any trending data on attendees leaving early complaining of “bureaucratic nonsense”.as was the case with the latest conference?

John the Econ
November 23, 2022 3:03 pm

Makes sense. We’ll all be employees of the state by then.

Paul Hurley
November 23, 2022 3:24 pm

Now that’s a hockey stick! (COP-ey stick?)

michael hart
November 23, 2022 3:35 pm

Nice attention to Units. I like that.

michael hart
Reply to  Kip Hansen
November 23, 2022 8:24 pm

I still remember my PhD candidacy exam. The out-of-field examiner roasted me for using minutes and hours instead of seconds as units on kinetics experiments that sometimes took days.

As he did so, I looked down the table to one of the other Professors and we exchanged a glance. He rolled his eyes and I was proud of keeping a straight face.

Last edited 3 days ago by michael hart
heme212
November 23, 2022 3:50 pm

put on in Rhode Island and see what happens to your curve.

heme212
Reply to  heme212
November 23, 2022 3:51 pm

one

Streetcred
November 23, 2022 4:06 pm

It’s worse than we thought !

Art Slartibartfast
November 23, 2022 5:29 pm

What is the r^2 on these?

quantumkidsd4772e61e4
November 23, 2022 6:57 pm

That’s funny I don’t care who you are 😂👍

Alan Fields
November 23, 2022 7:28 pm

They’ve had 27COPs and atmospheric CO2 has risen from around 360ppm to around 420ppm during that time.
Correlation suggests the COPs are causing an increase in atmospheric CO2

vuurklip
November 23, 2022 7:29 pm

Can’t possibly get to COP 100 – we are DOOMED in ten years from now. Ask Greta.

Pat from Kerbob
November 23, 2022 8:45 pm

Well done. Nothing helps more than mockery

Neil Jordan
November 23, 2022 10:02 pm

Very good for a quadratic function, although correlation coefficient (r) not shown. I extended the analysis for linear, logarithmic, exponential, and power functions. Exponential function had the best fit, r = 0.81, but the extrapolation for COP-27 with 26 years of data was only 27,500 total attendees. Using all 27 years, slope = 0.0794, intercept = 3.3174, and r = 0.8260. COP-27 = 28,300. The analysis was for thousands of attendees. My extrapolation to COP-100 was 9,282,000 attendees instead of your calculated 413,000. I think my “projection” is better, given the increasingly shrill fervor of the climate coven attendees. Regarding your use of the second-order polynomial, an n-1 order polynomial will give a perfect fit, 26-order for 27 data pairs. How predictive (projective?) is a 26-order polynomial? I haven’t a clue, but it approaches the number of tuning knobs in a climate model.

Herrnwingert
November 24, 2022 1:27 am

I had a dream.
It is year 2073 and I have an invitation to attend COP-78. It was planned to be in Svalbad but the polar bear population is running out of control, the airport is threatened by an advancing glacier and the stubborn sea ice is not melting this summer and blocking the harbour. The new venue is Kiribati that, like many Pacific islands, has recovered large tracts of land in the last 40 years helped by rapidly rising and growing coral reefs. Many Pacific islands now have resorts with hotels, airports, convention centres and casinos.
It was at COP-37 that the IPCC, having negotiated immunity from prosecution and continuing pension rights for all surviving politicians and eco-scientists, declared that, all along, it had said that fossil fuels have been of immeasurable benefit to mankind and will continue to be for another couple of centuries. The IPCC produced the manipulated data to prove it.
Since then the focus of the COP meetings has been to develop global strategies to adapt to the developing mini-ice-age that, since COP-36, could no longer be denied. The average of the current 311 climate models predicts that the planet will cool by 9.481 degrees Centigrade by year 2123.
Attending COP-78 will be Grandmother Greta and her husband Al Gore’s grandson. They will be joined by their 4 children and 12 grandchildren. Greta’s children have used the vast Thunberg/Gore wealth fund to build a global monopoly, receiving substantial tax breaks, specialising in re-cycling the many thousand of wind and solar farms that have been dismantled during the last 30 years.
King George VII of England and I of Scotland will repeat the same speech he has held for the last 10 years giving dire warnings that civilisation has only 16 months 3 weeks and 2 days before we reach a catastrophic tipping point.
President Musk III of Mars will send observers.
Another issue the delegates will discuss is the alarming decline in world population, now heading towards just 6 billion and falling. Societies, over the last 50 years, have fully urbanised while they have grown wealthy on reliable, safe, cheap energy and women have become educated to university level. Couples are delaying or foregoing children (Greta is an exception). The birth rate now averages 1.3 children per couple. Large areas of previous agricultural land have become unmanaged and derelict. Wild beasts are retuning en masse and must be regularly culled.
As always, African countries are demanding reparations from the West, accusing the rich countries of causing the continent-wide obesity epidemic. They are also asking for funds to manage the huge influx of Europeans crossing the Mediterranean in small boats trying to escape the icy northern winters. Lastly, the African countries want the USA to replace the first generation of small fusion reactors it donated. These ran Windows 75, were easily hacked and tended to shut down abruptly. The new generation of small fusion reactors being mass-produced in China by Apple are rumoured to be more reliable, have a sexy design and can be ordered in any one of 9 colours.
Then I woke up.

Bill Toland
Reply to  Herrnwingert
November 24, 2022 2:44 am

Your dream has more chance of happening than net zero.

karlomonte
November 24, 2022 7:06 am

Well done, Kip! Trendology at its finest.

Alan Welch
November 24, 2022 8:40 am

Thanks to everyone who responded in the spirit intended. At least there is no need for me to give technical replies.
The item not covered is the Agenda for COP100. There could be a complete spectrum of possibilities ranging from “How do you fit 10 billion people onto the last inhabitable land mass, Antarctica” to “How do we mitigate the coming Ice Age”.  If I was a betting man, I would go for “Lessons learnt by Mankind’s survival during the Modern Warm Period”.
The first would give a population density similar to Barbados.
The second, which may become a concern much further in the future, would be the most worrying. Imagine a return to the last Ice Age, or even worse a Snowball Earth.
My bet could be uncomfortable to some at times, but the 413,000 delegates will all leave, bleary eyed, to who knows where for COP101.
Here’s to COP28 in the United Arab Emirates or COP29 in Australia or COP30 in Brazil or COP31 in Turkey(?). Gets more like Ground Hog Day every year!!!

Bruce Cobb
November 24, 2022 12:25 pm

In the (good?) old days, God would visit plagues, locusts, and burning ice storms upon man as punishment for his sins. Nowadays he visits 100 COPs on us. God sure does have a twisted sense of humor.

Tombstone Gabby
Reply to  Bruce Cobb
November 24, 2022 4:29 pm

G’Day Bruce,

“God sure does have a twisted sense of humor.”

I don’t know if Josh reads comments at all, but there has to be a cartoon in here somewhere.

Last edited 2 days ago by Tombstone Gabby
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