The Week That Was: 2022-11-12 (November 12, 2022)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less. – Marie Curie [H/t Gordon Fulks]
Number of the Week: 3 nanograms per liter (ng/L)
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The annual international gathering of politicians, bureaucrats, and special interest groups assembled in Sinai, to “save humanity” for the 27th time, (COP 27). TWTW will emphasize what is missing – competent physical science. Writing in “The Energy Advocate” Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicist Howard Hayden shows that in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021) the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC displays a heat balance chart similar to those in past Assessment Reports that correctly displays five examples of the conservation of energy. However, they do not present a similar chart for even one of their scenarios for the future. If they did, they would discover immediately that their scenarios violate the law of conservation of energy.
AMO physicists William Happer and William van Wijngaarden joined Atomic, Molecular and Laser Physicist C. A. de Lange and Veterinary Medicine professor emeritus J. D. Ferguson to expose the absurdity of regulating nitrous oxide emissions on the false claim of dangerous global warming. Increases in nitrous oxide come from the use of artificial (manufactured) fertilizers replacing bird and bat guano and human manure in agriculture.
Atmospheric scientist Roy Spencer examines the temperature change in Las Vegas and a nearby community with no urbanization. He shows the tremendous difference in change in summer nighttime temperatures. This demonstrates the absurdity of claiming that the increases in surface temperatures are due to carbon dioxide, rather than urbanization. UN and US climate reports are built on this simple defect.
Judith Curry, and others, bring up how shoddy climate science by the UN and the US are frightening children who are true victims of malicious propaganda.
All of the above go to the real harms being done to humanity by inferior government science and government bureaucracies and their promoters in their pompous efforts to “save humanity.”
Jennifer Marohasy produces photographic evidence of the incompetence of Australian “marine scientists” in declaring the Great Barrier Reef is dead or dying.
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Science Missing in Sinai: Extending his essays on Basic Climate Physics, in the October issue of “The Energy Advocate”, AMO physicist Howard Hayden writes (Graphs and references are not shown here.):
“CO2 Emissions
For some wavelengths, infrared travels less than a meter before being absorbed by CO2 at our present concentration of about 400 molecules per million molecules of air (ppmv). For a lot more wavelengths, the IR is stopped before going 10 meters. Accordingly, even with only 1 percent as much CO2 as we have, CO2 would be a strong greenhouse absorber. However, we are concerned with what happens as the atmospheric CO2 concentration increases from 400 ppmv [parts per million in volume] to 800 ppmv, as may happen during the next century.
“Calculations of the greenhouse effect for the five most abundant greenhouse gases have been done by van Wijngaarden and Happer from over a third of a million high-resolution spectral lines. The calculations are not just for the present GHG concentrations, but for fractional concentrations of each ranging from zero (f = 0 in the nearby graph) up to double the present concentration (f = 2). The graph shows my added vertical lines one-eighth, one-fourth, and one-half of present concentration.
“The vertical axis is the so-called ‘radiative forcing’—the difference in the greenhouse effect from the present. Notice that the radiative forcing for CO2 at zero concentration is negative, to be specific –30 W/m2 [watts per square meter]. I added several horizontal lines representing the greenhouse effect from CO2 with the red numbers at the right in W/m2. Notice the extremely abrupt rise of the red CO2 curve, followed by a curve of ever-decreasing slope well before half our present concentration (f = 0.5). Notice that if the concentration doubles, the CO2 greenhouse effect will change from 30 W/m2 only up to 33 W/m2. The total greenhouse effect is about 159 W/m2, so the increase due to CO2 doubling would be less than 2%.
“Believe it or not, this piddling 2% increase in the greenhouse effect due to CO2 doubling is the source of quite literally millions of ignorant statements about ‘the climate crisis,’ ‘the climate disaster,’ ‘climate legislation,’ ‘controlling the climate’ and so forth.
“The Final Straw:
“The IPCC’s admission in the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of Working Group I (Physical Science Basis) that the greenhouse effect G is the numerical difference between surface radiation and radiation to space will eventually be their undoing. They have provided incontrovertible evidence that their representative scenarios are physically impossible.
“To understand what they have done, it is necessary to look at certain abbreviations and standards. We will be looking at scenarios (SSPs: Shared Socio-economic Pathways) such as SSP3-7. 0,, where the “3” refers to a particular scenario and the 7.0 represents the approximate “radiative forcing” in W/m2, by 2080-2100, relative to the 1850-1900 period. Temperature rises (real and predicted) are also relative to the 1850-1900 time period.
“The only source of heat for the earth (ignoring very minor amounts of geothermal heat) is radiation from the sun, and the only way for the earth to shed heat is by infrared radiation. So, IPCC uses the term ‘radiative forcing’ to include any change due to solar flux, albedo, or greenhouse effect.
“We will first be looking at SSP3-7.0, a scenario in which the radiative forcing is 7.0 W/m2 relative to 1850-1900, as shown to the right. The graph shows a dark bar (lower left) indicating a temperature rise of about 1.1ºC since the 1850-1900 period and a predicted total temperature rise to occur by 2080-2100 of 3.6ºC for this scenario.
“Now, let us have another look at the Climate Constraint Equation. Recall that it is derived from the Planetary Heat Balance (applicable to all planets), the Stefan-Boltzmann radiation law (with σ = 5.67 × 10–8 W m–2 K-4) and IPCC’s understanding of the greenhouse effect.”
At equilibrium, the radiation emitted by the surface (the Stefan-Boltzmann constant times surface temperature to the fourth power) must equal the heat radiated to space (aka the heat absorbed from the sun) plus the net IR absorption by the atmosphere (aka the greenhouse effect) [words replacing the equation].
“The 7.0 W/m2 figure for this scenario incorporates all changes occurring on the right side of Equation 1 [articulated immediately above]. Therefore, if IPCC gets things right, the change in the left-hand side should also be 7.0 W/m2. However, if the temperature rises by 3.6ºC, the left-hand side increases by 20.1 W/m2. That’s a huge inequality.
“To be fair, IPCC makes no claim that the IPCC3-7.0 scenario for the 2080-2100 period is one of equilibrium. Let us look at the sequence of events. An increase in CO2 (and other human nefarious activities) cause an increase in the greenhouse effect, so that the heat emitted to space is less than the heat absorbed from the sun. This causes the surface to warm up. But how can the surface warm up so much that the planet now radiates more heat than it absorbs from the sun? Only IPCC’s ‘climate scientists’ know for sure.”
In short, the IPCC would have us believe that in physical science, 7 will become 20 in 60 years. See http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm
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Death by Starvation: Thanks to the previous government removed by revolt believing UN delusional claims of global warming from fertilizer, the people of Sri Lanka are suffering from real food shortages. Professors C. A. de Lange, J. D. Ferguson, W. Happer, and W. A. van Wijngaarden address the absurdity of UN claims that nitrous oxide (N2O) from modern fertilizer is causing dangerous warming. The abstract of their paper reads:
Higher concentrations of atmospheric nitrous oxide (N2O) are expected to slightly warm Earth’s surface because of increases in radiative forcing. Radiative forcing is the difference in the net upward thermal radiation flux from the Earth through a transparent atmosphere and radiation through an otherwise identical atmosphere with greenhouse gases. Radiative forcing, normally measured in W m−2, depends on latitude, longitude and altitude, but it is often quoted for the tropopause, about 11 km of altitude for temperate latitudes, or for the top of the atmosphere at around 90 km. For current concentrations of greenhouse gases, the radiative forcing per added N2O molecule is about 230 times larger than the forcing per added carbon dioxide (CO2) molecule. This is due to the heavy saturation of the absorption band of the relatively abundant greenhouse gas, CO2, compared to the much smaller saturation of the absorption bands of the trace greenhouse gas N2O. But the rate of increase of CO2 molecules, about 2.5 ppm/year (ppm = part per million by mole), is about 3000 times larger than the rate of increase of N2O molecules, which has held steady at around 0.00085 ppm/year since the year 1985. So, the contribution of nitrous oxide to the annual increase in forcing is 230/3000 or about 1/13 that of CO2. If the main greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4 and N2O have contributed about 0.1 C/decade of the warming observed over the past few decades, this would correspond to about 0.00064 K per year or 0.064 K per century of warming from N2O. Proposals to place harsh restrictions on nitrous oxide emissions because of warming fears are not justified by these facts. Restrictions would cause serious harm, for example, by jeopardizing world food supplies.
After going through detailed analysis showing any warming from a doubling of nitrous oxide is insignificant, in their conclusions the professors write (references omitted here):
“Since few citizens realize that the effects of total N2O emissions on climate are negligible, many governments are under pressure to “do something” about agricultural contributions of N2O. Ideologically driven government mandates on agriculture have usually led to disaster. The world has just witnessed the collapse of the once bountiful agricultural sector of Sri Lanka as a result of government restrictions on mineral fertilizer. An earlier example is the collectivization of agriculture in the Soviet Union, when the kulak (the derogatory Bolshevik word “fist” for a successful farmer) was ‘eliminated as a class.’ In consequence, millions died of starvation. Folk memories of the Golodomor (hunger-murder) played no small part in unleashing the present war in Ukraine.
“Despite this lamentable history, various governments have proposed burdensome regulations on farming, ranching and dairying to reduce emissions of N2O. The regulations will
have no perceptible effect on climate, but some of them will do great harm to agricultural
productivity and world food supplies. As we pointed out in Section 6, one of the major
factors for the world’s unprecedented abundance of food in recent years has been the use
of mineral nitrogen fertilizers. It is not possible to maintain highly productive agriculture
without nitrogen fertilizer.
“Although agricultural emissions of N2O are no threat to climate, they can lead to eutrophication of waterways. So, nitrogen fertilizer should be used intelligently to maximize nitrogen use efficiency by crops. To limit production costs, leading farmers already use no more nitrogen fertilizer than needed. Farmers are much better qualified to make this judgement than bureaucratic ideologues.
“Mandates to reduce animal numbers and fertilizer use will reduce agricultural yields. To continue to feed the world’s growing population without mineral and natural fertilizers, agricultural areas would have to increase and encroach on native habitats, which could have remained untouched with rational use of fertilizer. The result would be more environmental stresses, not less.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.brookings.edu/podcast-episode/why-is-sri-lanka-in-crisis-and-what-comes-next/
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It Stays in Vegas: In continuing his research, atmospheric scientist Roy Spencer writes:
“Now that I’m back to researching the surface air temperature record and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, I decided to revisit the temperatures in Las Vegas, Nevada. It’s been over 8 years since I posted about Las Vegas being the poster child for the UHI effect and I showed some warming trend calculations from the hourly temperature data at McCarren International Airport (now Harry Reid International Airport… not kidding) which suggested that much of the warming there has been from the urban heat island, not global climate change.”
In discussing his research Spencer states [Graph of findings not shown here]:
“I computed 50-year trends for Las Vegas and for a rural Nevada station, Winnemucca from 24-hourly data, which allows us to see how the trends change with time of day. I did this for the warmest half of the year, April through September. The following plot shows a remarkable feature… the strong warming in Las Vegas has been entirely at night. Winnemucca shows the background climate signal, with fairly uniform (and weak) warming trends throughout the day. But the impervious surfaces in Vegas — buildings, concrete, asphalt — absorb more sunlight during the day than the surrounding desert, and then at night release that heat into the air.
“Part of the reason this happens is the albedo of the city is lower than that of the surrounding desert (thanks to Anthony Watts for reminding me of this). But at least as important is that fact that concrete has a thermal conductivity 9 times as large as sand does, so when it is heated by the sun, much more energy is stored down into the pavement. Sand would have gotten exceedingly hot, but just at the surface, and the extra energy would radiate away (infrared) as well as drive stronger atmospheric (dry) convection which would carry that heat away during the daytime.
“Why would such a thing not show up during the day just as well? Because turbulent mixing driven by a strong super-adiabatic lapse rate near the surface spreads the heat up through the atmosphere and cooler air comes down to replace it, cooling the city during the day. But then at night, a temperature inversion forms, and the lowest levels of the atmosphere no longer exchange energy convectively with higher altitudes. In effect, the strong nighttime inversion that naturally occurs in the desert has weakened over the city as the pavement releases the extra energy it has stored during the day.
“The actual background climate warming in the last 50 years in Las Vegas (whatever its cause), based upon the above plot, looks to be around 0.25 deg. C/decade. This is also part of the reason why it is important to monitor global temperature trends with satellite measurements of the deep troposphere — it provides a more robust measurement that is not as influenced by surface effects, such as the Urban Heat Island, and avoids conflation of Las Vegas heat with the ‘climate crisis’.”
Spencer’s research on the UHI demonstrates why the UN and US emphasis on surface temperature data while ignoring atmospheric data results in meaningless conclusions. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Real Harm: On her blog, Climate Etc. Judith Curry cites academic studies showing the psychological health effects of climate change on children and young adults:
…including elevated levels of anxiety, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, increased incidences of suicide, substance abuse, social disruptions including increased violence, and a distressing sense of loss.
The psychological injuries to children associated with climate change are featured prominently by Our Children’s Trust which is “representing and supporting youth securing their legal rights to a safe climate.” This group sponsored the lawsuit Juliana vs. the United States, plus lawsuits in virtually all of the U.S. states and globally including Netherlands and Colombia. A key rationale for these Complaints/lawsuits is the psychological harm being inflicted on the Youth Plaintiffs. Here is one example from the Juliana complaint:
“’Defendants have caused psychological and emotional harm to Kelsey as a result of her fear of a changing climate, her knowledge of the impacts that will occur in her lifetime, and her knowledge that Defendants are continuing to cause harms that threaten her life and wellbeing. As a result of the acts and omissions of Defendants, Kelsey believes that she will not be able to continue to do all of the things described in this Complaint for her life, health, and enjoyment, nor will she one day be able to share those experiences with her children.’
“This is by no means the worst/alarming statement by the Youth Plaintiffs that I’ve seen, but it is the first one I spotted in a search of the Juliana Complaint.
“Lise Van Susteren, a clinical psychiatrist, submitted an Expert Report on Behalf of Juliana et al. From her introduction:
“’The science and literature show that a vast range of health impacts, including mental health impacts, from climate change are already impacting, and expected to impact in increasingly harmful ways, our most vulnerable population, children. Climate change is already harming children, including these youth Plaintiffs, psychologically, and this suffering increases as climate change worsens and as the federal government continues to exacerbate the dangers of climate change and does not act to stop the climate crisis. This report focuses on the current and expected psychological harms facing children as a result of climate change, and the menacing conditions that threaten future harm, if no meaningful action is taken to address climate change by the federal government. I discuss both acute and chronic climate harms because climate change has short- and long-term impacts on mental health. I discuss how these harms are worse because the federal government, including these defendants, are causing the harm, and failing to properly respond to the threats posed by climate change. I also discuss why children, including some of the Plaintiffs in this case, are experiencing disproportionally harmful, and what I expect to be life-long, mental health impacts, as a result of climate change and the government’s role in causing it.’
“I have personally received emails from children and young adults suffering from such effects, which were featured in previous blog posts. I have received numerous additional emails from teens and young adults that are very sincere and communicating with me because they are grasping for reasons not to be so depressed about this issue. These psychological injuries, at least in some individuals, seem real to me.
“There is little basis in the IPCC assessments for a level of alarm that would induce such psychological effects — even in context of the IPCC’s numerous erroneous assumptions and dubious judgment calls that were outlined in my previous blog post The climate crisis isn’t what it used to be . The apocalyptic and misleading rhetoric in the media and political discourse about climate change is arguably the driving impetus of these adverse psychological health effects.”
Curry concludes her essay:
“It is difficult to avoid concluding that children are being used as tools in adults’ political agenda surrounding climate change. This tooldom [using children as a tool?] is having adverse impacts on the mental health of children and young adults.
“I find the K-12 educational brainwashing by establishment educators to be particularly reprehensible. Wouldn’t it be much better for the children to learn about geology and meteorology, mass media influences on politics and society, and critical thinking about big societal issues? Wouldn’t it be great to motivate students to want to contribute to solving society’s problems and give them the academic tools to take advantage of opportunities?
“But a more fundamental issue is how children are being raised, so that they are lacking in resilience and hardiness.
“And finally, there are near- and long-term political implications. Does anyone think that throwing tomato soup at paintings in museums is helping the “cause”? In the longer term, all of this propaganda and brainwashing will backfire when it becomes apparent in a decade or two that there is no climate catastrophe, and young adults are rebelling against the ‘establishment’.”
Curry lets the IPCC off too lightly. The UN IPCC and the authors of the US National Climate Assessments must be aware of the harm they are doing. Their “science” is not a physical science using the earth’s real atmosphere. Their false claim that it is a physical science results in real harm to children. The UN’s using Greta Thunberg as a spokesperson for a science that the UN does not understand the physical world was just one disgusting example.
In the end, given its ineptness in responding to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and its distortion of an important physical science, one must ask does the UN have any value for humanity? See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children.
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Dead Corals Reborn: Using photographic evidence, Jennifer Marohasy shows the Great Coral Reef is not dead or dying in two films on the reef contesting the false claims of the Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS). A screening of “Bleached Colourful” is being held in Perth followed by the existing film, “Finding Porites.” As Marohasy writes:
“While the amount of government money for Great Barrier Reef research has been increasing exponentially, the quality of this research has gone out the window – literally. Now much of the research about the state of the Great Barrier Reef, and particularly ‘the science’ that making media headlines, is out of airplane windows.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Changing Seas.
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Last week TWTW discussed the “Friend of the Court” brief filed by Professors Happer and Lindzen against the EPA non-scientific endangerment finding. Next week it will discuss the petition to the US Circuit Court of Appeals in the District of Columbia.
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Number of the Week: 3 nanograms per liter (ng/L). The Attorney General of California has filed a lawsuit against 3M and DuPont for concealing:
“…health hazards associated with per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) from the public and continued producing them for public use.”
Although PFAS is a blanket term for thousands of compounds, the lawsuit specifically applies to seven detected in high levels in California waters: perfluorooctanoic acid, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), perfluorobutanesulfonic acid, perfluorohexanesulfonic acid, perfluorohexanoic acid, perfluoroheptanoic acid and perfluorononanoic acid.
The name ‘forever chemicals’ derives from the compounds’ resilience and resistance to degradation in nature, and according to data from California’s State Water Resources Control Board, they are detectable in 146 water systems that provide water to about 16 million residents of the state.”
The California’s State Water Resources Control Board notification states:
“According to the 2022-2026 Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR 5), U.S.
“EPA Method 533 will be used to analyze for PFHxS in drinking water samples and has a
minimum reporting level of 3 ng/L.” “3 nanograms per liter (ng/L)”
“Toxicological Endpoint: Decreased total thyroid hormone in male rats,” [Boldface added]
By definition, a nanogram is one billionth of a gram or about one trillionth of a pound. One of the most toxic chemicals known to man is the nerve agent VX, which is classified by the UN as a weapon of mass destruction.
“The CDC calls it ‘he most potent of all nerve agents.’ It kills quickly, even after exposure to infinitesimal amounts. Death by VX, which is a clear, motor oil-like liquid at room temperature, can occur after breathing in 25 to 30 milligrams, or just 10 milligrams if it comes into contact with the skin.” [Boldface added]
There are 1,000 milligrams in a gram (milli meaning one-thousandth). There are 1,000,000,000 nanograms in a gram. A milligram has a million (1,000,000) nanograms. According to California Water Board, forever chemicals are a million times more lethal than VX. The AG’s office and California regulators must be infected with mass innumeracy, (numerical illiteracy).
See links under California Dreaming and https://www.inverse.com/article/37072-what-is-vx-poison-nerve-agent#:~:text=Death%20by%20VX%2C%20which%20is,into%20contact%20with%20the%20skin.
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Climategate Continued
Climategate, the Movie: Boffins Turning Tricks
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant, Nov 8, 2022
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Nitrous Oxide and Climate
Why Restricting N2O Emissions Is Unnecessary and Dangerous, CO2 Coalition, Nov 2, 2022
Link to paper: Nitrous Oxide and Climate
By de Lange, Ferguson, Happer, and van Wijngaarden, CO2 Coalition, Nov 10, 2022
The Warming that Happens in Vegas, Stays in Vegas
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Nov 10, 2022
“But the impervious surfaces in Vegas — buildings, concrete, asphalt — absorb more sunlight during the day than the surrounding desert, and then at night release that heat into the air.”
Outside the Black Box: Back to Basics
By Ad Huijser, WUWT, Nov 7, 2022
The Dirty Secrets inside the Black Box Climate Models
By Greg Chapman, WUWT, Nov 10, 2022
CLINTEL Message to Public:
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Nov 9, 2022
Glacier saga
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 10, 2022
“Looking much further back, Glacier National Park was virtually ice free 11,000 years ago. Glaciers have been present within the boundaries of present-day Glacier National Park since about 6,500 years ago.”
Two of My Coral Reef Films on the Big Screen, 1st December, Perth WA
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Nov 10, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy
We’re on a ‘highway to climate hell,’ UN chief Guterres says, calling for a global phase-out of coal
By Anmar Frangoul, CNBC, Sustainable Future, Nov 7, 2022
“‘Humanity has a choice,’ he later added. ‘Cooperate or perish. It is either a Climate Solidarity Pact, or a Collective Suicide Pact.’”
Climate change threatening ‘things Americans value most’: draft report
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Nov 8, 2022
Link to: Availability for Public Comment on the Draft Fifth National Climate Assessment (NCA5) United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP)
By Staff, Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Federal Register, Nov 10, 2022
Link to review and comment: https://review.globalchange.gov/
[SEPP Comment: Public comments due in 12 weeks, if counted correctly on Feb 2, Groundhog Day.]
The Politician and the Farmer
From the heartland to the coasts, clean fuels have proven benefits.
By Antoine M. Thompson & Ron Heck, Real Clear Energy, Nov 07, 2022
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
3 things a climate scientist wants world leaders to know ahead of COP27
By Andrew King, The Conversation, Nov 2, 2022
“1. Our planet is undeniably in crisis
2. Emissions reduction is too slow
3. The stalling must end”
New report a ‘chronicle of climate chaos’: UN chief
By Zach Schonfeld, The Hill, Nov 6, 2022
Link to report: WMO Provisional State of the Global Climate 2022
By Staff, UN WMO, 2022
Opening of Highlights: “Concentrations of the three main greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.”
[SEPP Comment: Water vapor is no longer a greenhouse gas?]
UN: CO2 emissions from buildings, construction hit new high
By Alejandra O’Connell-Domenech, The Hill Nov 9, 2022
Link to report: 2022 Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction: Towards a Zero‐emission, Efficient and Resilient Buildings and Construction Sector.
By Staff, United Nations Environment Programme, 2022
[SEPP Comment: When wind and solar fail, use horse drawn or hand cranked elevators?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Would We Be Better Off Now, If We Had More Renewables?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 6, 2022
IPCC’s 1990 Predictions Were Even Worse Than We Thought
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, WUWT, Nov 9, 2022
[SEPP Comment: If the IPCC were a private corporation or a financial institution, it would be bankrupt.]
Just Stop Oil? If Oil Didn’t Exist, We’d Have to Invent It
By Robert Bryce, Real Clear Energy, Nov 4, 2022
“The energy density of gasoline is forty times that of Li-ion.”
Now It’s Claimed Anthropogenic Global Warming Is Driven By Aerosol Emissions Reductions, Not CO2
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 10, 2022
Link to latest report: Is Anthropogenic Global Warming Accelerating?
By Stuart Jenkins, et al. Journal of Climate, Aug 29, 2022
It’s insane to demand we pay for the ‘sin’ of our industrial past when China wreaks such climate damage today
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2022
In Egypt, Climate Catastrophism as Usual
By Michael Kile, Quadrant, Nov 10, 2022
Even Greenpeace finally admits the obvious: Recycling plastic doesn’t work
By John Tierney, New York Post, Nov 1, 2022 [H/t Paul Redfern]
China’s Cumulative CO2 Is Triple The UK’s
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 10, 2022
“Of course, this never had anything to do with the climate, it is all about punishing rich countries.”
[SEPP Comment: According to the UN, China’s CO2 doesn’t count toward global warming/climate change?]
Everybody knows: climate change is making drought and flooding worse
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 9, 2022
IPCC Trends Atlas: Egypt Edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 9, 2022
Energy and Environmental Review: November 7, 2022
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 7, 2022
After Paris!
Climate bill boosts Biden’s credibility at COP27 as countries look to US to deliver
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 10, 2022
“He’s expected to tout the investments in the Inflation Reduction Act, which put nearly $370 billion towards energy and climate, largely through clean energy tax credits.”
[SEPP Comment: Fighting inflation with government subsidies?]
Fossil Fuels for Africa! African Energy Chamber at COP 27
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Nov 10, 2022
Australia’s plan to co-host the 2026 UN climate conference with Pacific nations met with criticism
By Henry Belot, ABC News, Nov 7, 2022 [H/t Dennis Amber]
It’s bugs for you and beef medallion for us: COP27 is a hypocrisy junket
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 11, 2022
Change in US Administrations
Biden Shouts “No More Drilling. There is no more drilling!” at New York Rally
By Michael Shellenberger, His Blog, Nov 6, 2022
Joe Biden’s “Alternative Energy” Fantasy
By Jude Clemente, Real Clear Energy, Nov 11, 2022
It’s Too Late for Apologies Mr. President. We Heard You Loud and Clear
By Tucker Davis, Real Clear Energy, Nov 08, 2022
Problems in the Orthodoxy
China Refuse To Pay Climate Reparations
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Global Warming was caused only by CO2 emitted before 1990?]
COP27: A meaningless ritual for China and India
By Vijay Jayaraj, American Thinker, Nov 7, 2022
Sweden to lay bare new government’s emission-increasing plans at COP27
By Charles Szumski, EURACTIV.com, Nov 8, 2022 [H/t Paul Homewood]
Science, Policy, and Evidence
Floggings will continue until bankruptcy improves
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 9, 2022
UK Government Priorities
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 11, 2022
Model Issues
Circular Climate Logic
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 11, 2022
Video: “A model is a mathematical representation of what someone believes.”
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Global Temperature Report
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, UAH, October 2022, Nov 4, 2022
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/october2022/202210_Map.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2022/october2022/202210_Bar.png
Changing Weather
Germany Sees Record Warm October, Helps Ease Heating Costs And Gas Shortage
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 6, 2022
Extreme Weather In India Is Not Getting Worse
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 11, 2022
The Great Wildfire Mystery and The Latest (Dry) Forecast
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Nov 11, 2022
“Most West Coast fires are initiated by humans, with poorly maintained electrical infrastructure being a major contributor. Substantial recent efforts have been given to trimming trees near power lines, hardening electrical infrastructure, and de-energizing powerlines when strong winds are forecast. This seems to be helping.”
[SEPP Comment: In California, the constitution gives the state legislature ultimate responsibility for utilities; thus, the ultimate responsibility for wildfires started by poorly maintained electrical infrastructure.]
Global warming in the Arctic increases megafires on the permafrost
Press Release by Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Nov 3, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
Link to paper: Unprecedented fire activity above the Arctic Circle linked to rising temperatures
By Adria Descals, AAAS Science, Nov 3, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Nothing like the fires in the Arctic when the cooling after the Holocene Climate Optimum killed extensive forests.]
Changing Climate
The “little” Medieval Warm Period in Southeast Tibet
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 9, 2022
From the CO2Science Archive:
Changing Seas
Coral Reefs & Coal Mines – Even Gas Market Interventions
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, Nov 12, 2022
Climate ate my crabs… unless we eat them first
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 9, 2022
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Belief Of Steady 5300 Year Climate Unravels: Ötzi Got Exposed “Again and Again”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 8, 2022
Link to paper: Ötzi, 30 years on: A reappraisal of the depositional and post-depositional history of the find
By Lars Pilø, The Holocene, Nov 7, 2022
Melting glaciers uncover a Swiss pass that has been buried for at least 2000 years
The pass is situated at the confluence of the Sunfleuron glacier and the Saxe-Rouge glacier at an elevation of 2800 metres above sea level between the cantons of Vaud and Valais in Switzerland’s south-west. It’s part of the Glacier 3000 ski area.
By Diya Mukherjee, Times Now, Sep 14, 2002 [H/t Paul Homewood]
“According to scientists, glaciers have not receded constantly over the last century, with periods of significant growth occurring in the 1920s and 1980s”
[SEPP Comment: No unprecedented warming here.]
New Paradigm-Shifting Study Finds Annual CO2 Flux Is Driven By Temperature-Dependent Sea Ice Flux
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Nov 7, 2022
link to paper: Temperature, carbon dioxide and methane may be linked through sea ice dynamics
By Hambler and Henderson, University of Oxford, 2022
From Conclusion in Abstract: “Time lags between variables indicate primary drivers of the gas dynamics are due to solar action on the polar regions, not mid-latitudes as is conventionally believed. Our results are consistent with a proposed role of a high-latitude temperature-dependent abiotic variable such as sea ice in the annual cycles of carbon dioxide and methane. If sea ice does not drive the net flux of these gases, it is a highly precise proxy for whatever does. Potential mechanisms should be investigated urgently.”
Swiss Glacier Was Ice Free 2000 Years Ago
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 11, 2022
Link to: A New Alpine Melt Theory
The Alpine glaciers are shrinking, that much we know. But new research suggests that in the time of the Roman Empire, they were smaller than today. And 7,000 years ago they probably weren’t around at all. A group of climatologists have come up with a controversial new theory on how the Alps must have looked over the ages.
By Von Hilmar Schmundt, Spiegel International, May 23, 2005
Glaciers Disappearing In 1902
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 11, 2022
Polar bear habitat update: ice forming along Hudson Bay, Wrangel & Franz Josef Islands surrounded
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Nov 10, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
All The Fake News That Is Unfit To Print
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 10, 2022
“Another look at baseless heatwave propaganda from the New York Times and NOAA.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
‘Climate activism is everywhere, and not just on the streets,’ claim authors of new book
Press Release by University of Exeter, Nov 11, 2022 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
[SEPP Comment: In Russia, China, South Asia, etc.?]
Sunak: Putin’s war is ‘a reason to act faster’ on climate
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Nov 7, 2022
[SEPP Comment: Global warming caused the invasion?]
World in crisis a grim backdrop for UN climate talks
By Frank Jordans and Samy Magdy, AP, Nov 6, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
NYT Attacks Great Scientist, Further Tanks Its Credibility
By Cameron English, ACSH, Nov 7, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Hot is climate, cold is weather part 63
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 9, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Victims of the faux climate ‘crisis’. Part I: Children
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Nov 7, 2022
Climate Victimhood Comes to “Corruption House Number One”?
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 8, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
A sardonic cheer for Greta
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 9, 2022
“A recent book review ‘The Great Reset Exposed’ quotes the editor of Against the Great Reset asking ‘Why is the Swiss-based World Economic Forum (WEF) advocating a complete ‘re-imagining of the Western world’s social, economic and moral structures?’ And why now?’”
Stripes across my planet
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Nov 9, 2022
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Bicyclist Dies After Emergency Rescue Vehicle Delayed By “Last Generation” Protesters
From De kalte Sonne, By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Nov 9, 2022
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Satellites scrutinize site-specific emissions in effort backed by Al Gore
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Nov 9, 2022
[SEPP Comment: But satellites can’t observe temperature trends?]
Questioning European Green
Dominic Lawson: You can have green or growth — but not both
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 6, 2022
Matt Ridley: Green zealots are threatening real conservation
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 7, 2022
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Deep Green West Australian Government Considering Diesel Generators to Keep the Lights On
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 7, 2022
There Will Be No Climate Amnesty
By Jason Isaac, Real Clear Energy, Nov 10, 2022
Funding Issues
Britain Joins Australia’s Call for Bigger Climate Change Payouts
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 7, 2022
COP27: Financing for climate damages gets a foot in the door
By Kelly MacNamara and Marlowe Hood, Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt (AFP), Nov 6, 2022
We don’t owe developing countries ‘climate reparations’ – they owe us
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2022
The Political Games Continue
Manchin comes out against Biden nominee for energy commission
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 10, 2022
“The president recently garnered Manchin’s ire when he said during a California speech that he wanted to shut down coal plants in favor of solar and wind energy.”
[SEPP Comment: Did Sen Manchin experience a moment of reality?]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Soviet electricity: UK faces blackouts, blistering costs and still has to pay wind farms £1b to do nothing
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 12, 2022
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Biden’s EPA has coordinated with left-wing eco groups tied to liberal dark money network
Biden admin colluding with eco groups while ‘ignoring the needs of American families,’ former EPA chief of staff tells Fox News Digital
By Thomas Catenacci, Fox News, Nov 7, 2022
Energy Issues – Non-US
Europe in trouble. More French nuclear power out for winter, and prices hit €1,000/MW
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 11, 2022
Energy Issues – Australia
The Biggest Public Policy Disaster in a Lifetime
By Ian Plimer, Quadrant, Nov 12, 2022
“We once had cheap reliable energy. We don’t now because the system has been gamed for a small proportion of highly profitable renewables to enter the grid.”
Senator Malcolm Roberts Challenges the Aussie Government to Prove CO2 is a Problem
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Nov 11, 2022
Energy Issues — US
Oil Prices Are Primed To Spike This Winter
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, Nov 8, 2022
Washington’s Control of Energy
Biden administration proposes requiring biggest federal contractors set emissions reduction targets
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Nov 10, 2022
Link to rule: Federal Acquisition Regulation: Disclosure of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate-Related Financial Risk
Department of Defense (DoD), General Services, Administration (GSA), and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
“Under the rule, companies that get more than $50 million in annual contracts from the federal government would be required to set ‘science-based targets to reduce their [greenhouse gas] emissions.’”
“He has also signed an executive order calling for the federal government to be carbon neutral by 2050 and cut its emissions 65 percent by 2030.”
[SEPP Comment: Does anyone in the administration understand the difference between scientific knowledge and speculation? Washington should show the country how to achieve this!]
FERC Is Doing Joe Biden’s Bidding –and Surging Energy Prices
By Daniel Turner, Real Clear Energy, Nov 11, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
3 Things That Could Slow Down The Global Solar Boom
By Haley Zaremba, Oil Price.com, Nov 06, 2022
Link to report: Solar power now cheapest way to add electricity in many markets – and getting cheaper
By Staff, Wood Mackenzie, Jan 21, 2021
[SEPP Comment: Failing every night is not important?]
France to require all large parking lots to be covered by solar panels
By Jennifer Mossalgue, Electrek, Nov 8, 2022
Wind Turbines’ Dirty Secret
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Nov 9, 2022
Now they tell us: Wind power giant says it was a mistake to say renewables would only get cheaper
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 9, 2022
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Face it: Electric cars don’t do much of anything for the environment
By John Stossel, New York Post, Nov 8, 2022
“Volkswagen published an honest study [that points out] that the first 60,000 miles or so you’re driving an electric vehicle, that electric vehicle will have emitted more carbon dioxide than if you just drove a conventional vehicle.”
Saving the world with lithium? Four times a week an e-bike battery catches fire in New York
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 6, 2022
California Dreaming
California commission issues revised proposal to cut paybacks to rooftop solar customers
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Nov 10, 2022
[SEPP Comment: If rooftop solar is so cheap, why subsidize it?]
California AG announces lawsuit against ‘forever chemical’ manufacturers
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Nov 10, 2022
Link to Notification Level Issuance
By Staff, California Water Boards, Oct 31, 2022
Environmental Industry
From The Archives: Apples, Alar, NRDC And Meryl Streep
By ACSH Staff, Nov 7, 2022
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
UN – CO2 Deadlier Than Cancer
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Nov 10, 2022
Link to report: Climate change much deadlier than cancer in some places, UNDP data shows
By Staff, UN Development Programme (UNDP), Nov 4, 2022
Video and Text
Climate Questions: Is it too late to stop climate change?
By Staff, The Associated Press, Nov 6, 2022
[SEPP Comment: It was too late hundreds of millions of years ago]
Savior Al Gore wields windmills to stop the storms and end the Culture of Death
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Nov 8, 2022
ARTICLES
Biden Embarrasses Joe Manchin
The Senator is upset the President told the truth about the plan to kill coal plants.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Nov. 6, 2022
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins:
“Every so often President Biden blurts out what he really thinks, even if it’s politically or diplomatically embarrassing. He did it again Friday when he said his Administration will shut down coal plants across America. While true, his comment won’t help Democratic Senate candidates or West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin.
“Mr. Biden’s campaign remarks in Carlsbad, Calif., were supposed to be about the semiconductor bill and his ‘unity agenda.’ But during a riff on Democrats’ tax and climate spending bill, he let slip that ‘we’re going to be shutting [coal] plants down all across America and having wind and solar.’
“The boast drew an indignant response from Mr. Manchin, whose state is a top coal producer and generates some 90% of its electricity from coal. ‘President Biden’s comments are not only outrageous and divorced from reality, they ignore the severe economic pain the American people are feeling because of rising energy costs,’ Mr. Manchin said.
“‘Let me be clear,’ he added, ‘This is something the President has never said to me.’ Maybe not, but if Mr. Biden’s comments came as a shock, the Senator must not be paying attention. The main purpose of the climate provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act Mr. Manchin negotiated with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was to drive coal plants, and over time all fossil fuels, out of business.
“Eight state coal associations sent a letter to Mr. Manchin warning the legislation will ‘severely threaten American coal’ in part by ‘turbocharging the lofty incentives that already extend to renewable energy.’ Generous subsidies for wind and solar have made coal power uncompetitive in wholesale markets. Coal plants can’t cover their costs running only some of the time. Mr. Manchin said the companies were wrong in a reply letter.
“About one-third of the country’s coal plants have retired since 2008. The super green subsidies in the Inflation Reduction Act will accelerate coal plant retirements. Biden officials have also teased new regulations that are intended to raise coal plant costs and force more shutdowns, which will kill thousands of jobs and make power less reliable.”
The editorial then goes into continuing political games
Just seen an end fossil fuel protest group outside of our Barclays Bank branch, protesting against Barclays investment in fossil fuels. I asked them about the material used in their clothing. They did acknowledge the medieval warm period. The person I spoke to said that because David Attenborough believed in anthropogenic climate change then so did she. I suggested that nuclear was the only way forward, oh no renewables are the way forward, the irony is that the wind wasn’t blowing and it was misty and overcast all of the time I was talking to them.
“Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less. – Marie Curie”
Too bad she didn’t understand radiation better or she wouldn’t have gotten cancer from her radiation research.
‘Too bad she didn’t understand radiation better or she wouldn’t have gotten cancer from her radiation research.’
Per Wikipedia, she lived an extraordinary and purposeful life before passing away at the age of 66. It’s noteworthy that notwithstanding her research with radioactive elements, she far outlived many millions of young men who died violently in their prime as a result of their governments’ engagement in probably the stupidest and most futile war of all time.
I see great merit in using Howard Hayden’s Climate Constraint Equation to check the validity of GCM projections, I.e.,
‘At equilibrium, the radiation emitted by the surface (the Stefan-Boltzmann constant times surface temperature to the fourth power) must equal the heat radiated to space (aka the heat absorbed from the sun) plus the net IR absorption by the atmosphere (aka the greenhouse effect) [words replacing the equation].’
Coincidentally, I recently had a very cordial exchange with Nick Stokes in which he referenced a 2018 GFDL paper [Paynter et al] that examined two models that were run on millennial scale to determine the Earth’s ECS for 2x CO2.
Since both models were run to ‘equilibrium’, I was able to use Hayden’s methodology to compare each model’s ECS estimate against their respective changes in LW and SW ‘forcings’ for purposes of consistency.
Interesting to me was that the forcings in both models came up short by at about 50% relative to their (very different) ECS estimates, which would seem to corroborate many other observations that GCMs ‘run hot’ by about 2x observed warming.
If anyone is interested, the relevant comments start here:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/11/10/the-dirty-secrets-inside-the-black-box-climate-models/#comment-3637441
The troposphere, thanks to its density, is not transparent to infrared radiation, and the denser the troposphere layer, the more solar energy it retains, of which, in the case of Earth, about 50% of solar radiation reaches the surface. The more water vapor in the air, the more solar energy the troposphere captures. Therefore, the reduction of water vapor in the air in summer increases the surface temperature, in winter the opposite, as Central Europe will soon find out (just as North America is currently finding out).
During La Nina, the amount of water vapor decreases, and the temperature anomaly at two meters was negative all winter in the Southern Hemisphere.
Will it be warmer in five days in North America?
The polar vortex in the lower stratosphere will split into two centers in line with the distribution of the geomagnetic field in the north. One center will be over Canada, the other over Siberia.
Not quite! We need to distinguish between net and gross, or SFR (single factor removal) and SFA (single factor addition) as Gavin Schmidt names it below.
These are percentages of the total GHE, in this instance assumed to be 155W/m2. So it is 24.6% * 155 = 38.1W/m2 gross, and 14% * 155 = 21.7W/m2 net. According to Gavin Schmidt. I will tell you his figures are a little too high and more accurately they are ~34W/m2 gross and ~19W/m2 net. Anyhow..
Still it holds true that a doubling of CO2 will enhance its forcing by about 10%. And that figure is true for both the gross, as the net effect. And that is the important part. You can argue a 3.7W/m2 forcing based on the gross GHE of CO2, but it will only be about 2W/m2 net!!!
Which to choose? You need to understand that a good part of the gross forcing goes into overlaps with other GHGs and clouds, so that the GHE is not enhanced by it. Rather it is only the net forcing making a difference. So the 2W/m2 is correct. And that is a much smaller forcing and accordingly far lower ECS.
https://greenhousedefect.com/the-holy-grail-of-ecs/a-total-synthesis-the-ecs-estimate