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In 1995, experts told the NY Times that east coast beaches would be wiped out by 2020; forecasts based on models. Despite being wrong, rapid acceleration scenarios are still used today. Obviously didn't learn a darn thing. “Climate science is where arrogance and ignorance meet.” pic.twitter.com/w6yaNyht7a
— Chris Martz (@ChrisMartzWX) November 1, 2022
https://www.climatedepot.com/2022/11/01/new-york-times-climate-prediction-bust-1995-article-cited-experts-warning-most-of-the-beaches-on-the-east-coast-of-the-u-s-could-be-gone-in-25-years/
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Pure gold!
“Climate science is where arrogance and ignorance meet.”
Please do not forget superstition- that is an equally big part of the “Global Warm-mongers'” schtick. They have merely updated the old trope that when something bad happens (bad weather, volcanic eruptions, etc.) it is because WE have “angered the gods” (in this case, probably Mother Gaia).
Im having a t-shirt printed with those three included.
Thanks for the idea.
I wonder if the reporter, William Stevens, is still around, and what he has to say now about that article.
He’s retired now , was science reporter then
Wrote a book soon after earlier prediction, im sure it will be full of gold
The Change in the Weather: People, Weather, and the Science of Climate Paperback – March 6, 2001William K Stevens
When you say space reporter its about the bit between the ears is it not?
Then you have good old Tim Flannery… It’ll never rain again, and if it does the dams will NEVER fill. He should have been forced to build his house behind the wall of Warragamba dam. These people never have any skin in the game.
Another, even more extreme news article shown below that we’ve seen copied before here that illustrates how far off the extreme predictions have been.
The date of that article was over 33 years ago. However, if you took off the date and published it in tomorrow’s paper as current news, nobody would be able to tell.
Same type of busted climate crisis scare verbiage.
https://imageholder.org/apnews-1989-jun-29-page-united-nations-predicts-disaster-if-global-warming-not-checked/#:~:text=United%20Nations%20Predicts%20Disaster%20if%20Global%20Warming%20Not,trend%20is%20not%20reversed%20by%20the%20year%202000
United Nations Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked
Associated Press – Jun 29, 1989
“A senior UN environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000 Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco- refugees,’ threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the UN Environment Program, or UNEP He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control…”
“As the warming melts polar icecaps, ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations, Brown told The Associated Press in an interview on Wednesday Coastal regions will be inundated; one-sixth of Bangladesh could be flooded, displacing a fourth of its 90 million people A fifth of Egypt’s arable land in the Nile Delta would be flooded, cutting off its food supply, according to a joint UNEP and US Environmental Protection Agency study…”
“Ecological refugees will become a major concern, and what’s worse is you may find that people can move to drier ground, but the soils and the natural resources may not support life Africa doesn’t have to worry about land, but would you want to live in the Sahara?…”
“He said even the most conservative scientists ‘already tell us there’s nothing we can do now to stop a change’ of about 3 degrees ‘Anything beyond that, and we have to start thinking about the significant rise of the sea levels we can expect more ferocious storms, hurricanes, wind shear, dust erosion’…”
Fabulous! The run up to the 1992 UNFCCC Treaty that everybody signed. What has increased is the destructive consequences of this junk policy.
I didn’t know that there were any conservative climate “scientists”. I thought they were all socialists.
The conservative ones are the socialists …. the rest are full blown communists (in their current Neo-marxist camouflage of course).
Phillip,
Actually the majority do lean in that direction and scientists aren’t robots. Many of them let their politics affect their thinking AND THEIR WORK just like other people.
Didn’t double breasted suits also get another go as fashion?
Speaking of “experts”, this just in from COP27 itself:
” Experts say climate change is making drought and flooding worse across the globe”
https://twitter.com/i/events/1587087406913572865?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email
I think a COP putting out junk science may be new.
Drought AND flood, two opposites, perfect!
Maybe with a few carefully situated aqueducts, we can solve the drought and flooding problems at the same time!
The reason it stopped being called “global warming” was because became obvious to everyone that it had stopped warming. However this was when the claims started to be about warming causes cooling, etc (even if there was no actual warming in the first place). That was what triggered the realisation that this was total a scam, with no validity at all.
hence the name ipcc at the start. it was called climate change first,
then warming.
Yeah, I hate that strawman as well.
Talking of Junk science last night on TV news the lead story ?
Waves on the west coast of New Zealand are going to get bigger by up to 2 meters and cause erosion but surfing waves on the east coast are going to decrease .
How come ?
” We have models that tell us ”
How many predictions based on models have eventuated ?
cant surf a closeout on the beach dude.
I expect that the next time they will cover everything i.e. not only making drought and flooding worse but also higher and lower temperatures, glaciers advancing and retreating simultaneously, rising and falling sea level, arctic free/maximum expansion of ice etc. Therefore, they will remove possibility of being proven wrong no matter what will happen with the weather.
I feel so sorry for Barry Obama’s real estate losses..
https://www.amlu.com/2020/08/22/president-barack-obamas-hawaii-beach-house-being-built-on-idyllic-site-of-magnum-p-i-mansion/
https://www.townandcountrymag.com/leisure/real-estate/a30169311/barack-michelle-obama-buy-marthas-vineyard-house/
He sure isn’t concerned about rising oceans. Well, why should he. He said that would all stop when he became president.
The NY house is at 9+ feet elevation (I did not look it up this time) and the Magnum Pi estate is 13 to 16 feet above sea level. Neither is in danger from AGW sea level change.
I’ll bet a dollar both will be sold at a profit by 2030.
This is the sort of research Tony Heller does nearly every day.
Here’s a link to a recent post of his:
Glaciers To Disappear By Mid-Century
A century ago, experts said the glaciers of Glacier National Park
would disappear by mid-century.
That prediction failed, so they changed the date to 1961.
That prediction failed, so they changed the date to 2002.
That prediction failed, so they changed the date to 2020
That prediction failed, so they changed the date to 2044
If you Google “failed climate predictions” you will get page after page of links to this sort of stuff.
Here’s one that is critical of science crying “Wolf”:
The Risks of Communicating Extreme Climate Forecasts
And then this:
Many climate predictions do come true – PolitiFact
the IPCC has continued to make predictions that end up
being close to real, observed temperatures.
A read of that one shows that the “close” predictions were warmer than the observed temperatures.
extinction clock dot org … no spaces … is a wonderfully funny resource 🙂
Politifact is Leftist dross.
For Politifact an observed temperature increase of 0.39C is the same as a predicted rise of 0.55C.
Funny they won’t address the more absurd failed predictions such as sea level rise or the end of snow.
Politifact is Leftist Propaganda.
Sorry Steve. In my early morning stupor while posting on Tony below I failed to see you had already broached the subject.
How about Viner from the University of East Anglia who predicted, in 2005 or around about then: “Soon children won’t know what snow looks like”.
They probably won’t recognise the word ‘snow’ because their poor education will leave them illiterate, and they will never see it since they will never go outdoors and look away from their phones….
I now realize why so many young people ‘demonstrate’ to have (someone) get control of ‘global warming’… when the quote about ‘no snow’ came out, being unable to actually READ, they thought it said s’mores.
People in England don’t do s’mores. For pretty much the entire island, it’s too cold outside to have campfires except in summer – that is, 15 June.
But the children, they’ll say, will only see 10 kinds of snow, not the several dozen once recognized by Inuits. /sarc
Who were these experts and scientists making these predictions based on models?
mars actually
David Viner Late of the lamentable University of East Anglia – the folks who dropped the ball with Climategate, and the author of the “snow will be a thing of the past” meme mnoved on to get a job as environmental consultant with international civil engineering consultancy Mott Macdonald
https://www.vitae.ac.uk/researcher-careers/researcher-career-stories/what-do-research-staff-do-next-career-stories/david-viner
Interestingly Mott Mac from UK Construction news in 2011 ” Mott MacDonald has been appointed to provide master planning and detailed engineering design for the US$368m expansion of Male International Airport (MIA) in the Maldives.”
https://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/mott-macdonald-scoops-maldives-airport-role.
Young David is now a distinguished professor of climatey stuff at Salford university
and a big wheel in the UK climatocracy
https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-viner-fienvsci-14a76630/?originalSubdomain=uk
Doubrtless he will be at Sharm al Sheikh next week to check out the reefs there too .
Obviously his airport in the Maldives will be underwater – UNless Darwin is right about coral atoll accretion and the whole climate establishment is wrong.
Either way young David is a star at playing both ends against the middle in the cklimate game. A shill of the worst sort Up there with Gore and Obama.
I won’t hire mac macdonalds with your money
“Mott MacDonald has been appointed to provide master planning and detailed engineering design for the US$368m expansion of Male International Airport (MIA) in the Maldives.”
His design will probably include bringing in several million cubic yards of gravel to raise the ground level above the soon to be flooded islands. /sarc
Another article obnoxiously repeating everything twice.
If only this was a slick PR exercise. That would be so much more convincing.
How can a beach disappear?
Surely Shirley, A Beach is where “Land meets Sea”
So unless either all the land (or all the sea) entirely disappear, there will always be: A Beach
Technically that would be a “coast”. Lots of coasts don’t have beaches, which require sand (or at least, small gravel). Uh oh, I’m starting to sound like Nick!
Generally, every beach has a stream outlet somewhere bringing silt. If it stopped raining, perhaps they would disappear.
Washaway Beach: A Story of Place | Washington Coast Magazine
The water rises, but it has not as all this “global warming” talk is not based on atmospheric science, but political opportunism for grant money.
Peta, when you start with a wrong definition you end up with a wrong conclusion (as you just did)
Where land meets sea is the definition of “a coast”, not the definition of “a beach” (a beach is only a subset of coastal land types). A rock cliff can be where “land meets sea”, a rock cliff is not a beach..
“a beach” is “a pebbly or sandy shore, especially by the ocean between high- and low-water marks”.
Thing about beaches is, sand can and does shift as the oceans waves move it about. So while a specific beach at a specific GPS coordinate might “disappear”, the most likely thing to have happened is that the sand was simply washed further down the coast to form a beach at a different GPS location.
Tony Heller hit on this topic Monday. Lots more evidence of the lies here:
Herding The Climate Sheep | Real Climate Science
Yes, I’m sure Tony wouldn’t mind, but credit should be given where it is due.
Climate Depot seems to have reposted Tony’s story from earlier that day, which was then reposted here without proper attribution.
… and the Maldives were supposed to have disappeared back in 2018.
https://trove.nla.gov.au/newspaper/article/102074798
Didn’t the ‘experts’ predict, 30 years ago, that the Maldives would be underwater within 10 years? So how come 30 years on they are still building hotels on the beaches? 🤔
What’s hard to accept is that the doom ponies can be reminded of these failed predictions, and they’re fine with it. Perfectly happy.
Their response: “the message is more important.”
It’s just one more piece of evidence that “climate science” is a religion, just like “intelligent design” was part of many Christians’ attempts to get their religion into the schools decades ago.
What’s unfortunate is that the climageddon crowd has successfully destroyed the schools – something the intelligent design crowd didn’t get close to accomplishing.
Even at their predicted rate of sea level rise of 1.5 ft in 105 years, or 0.0143 ft per year, that would have resulted in a total sea level rise over 25 years of just 0.36 ft or 4 and 1/4 inches. Compared to an average daily tidal variation of 2 to 4 ft. Their predicted rate of SLR was also off by about double the actual rate of SLR of about 7-8 inches per century.
Also, beaches don’t disappear, regardless of where sea level is. Otherwise, there would be no beaches at all today because sea level has been far higher than today just a couple thousand years ago. Yet they endure! Who’d a thunk it?
Here on the Florida peninsula, the land has periodically been inundated by prior sea level raises such that at various times within the last 2.6 MY the entire peninsula has either disappeared underwater completely, or has been up to three times as large as it is now due to sea level change from glaciations and interglacials. Yet our beaches persevere.
Salute!
Don’t forget that the slope of the “beach” or shoreline and underwater seafloor have a lot to do with where the “high tide” line is. Just a 5 or 6 inch tide moves some beaches back and forth a hundred yard. At some “beaches” on the Atlantic coast, the tide can go up and down 2 or 3 feet and the “beach” doesn’t recede 100 feet.
The Gulf has interesting tides, and we do not see two feet changes from day to day ( don’t have two per day) – most days it’s a foot or less tide change.
but what do the alarmists know about, or care.
Gums sends,,,
Trans/science predicts… celebrates a handmade tale of a trans/climate that isn’t.
This obscures that beaches do have problems, ephemeral on a long scale, diminishing supply of sand from rivers and Pleistocene offshore deposits.Lots of manipulations like jetties and others keep the engineer’s operations busy .
Apparently the NY Times Stevens ‘got it right’ in 1989 story that was on front Page
Consider this late 1989 piece by New York Times climate science writer William K. Stevens. The front-page article was titled SPLIT FORECAST: DISSENT ON GLOBAL WARMING – A SPECIAL REPORT; Skeptics Are Challenging Dire ‘Greenhouse’ Views.
‘Much of the dissenters’ criticism is aimed at computerized mathematical models of the world’s climate on which forecasts of global warming are largely based. The critics also cite data on past climatic trends, and they say the theory of greenhouse warming has not yet been fully explored.
”It’s not that we have a bad theory,” said Reid A. Bryson of the University of Wisconsin, a leading climate theorist. ”It’s that we have an incomplete theory with a lot of bad science being done.”
https://www.masterresource.org/new-york-times/12-13-89-nyt-climate-article/
In 25 years, children will not know what sand in the gears is.
In 23 years, children probably won’t know what GEARS are…
It will be irrelevant as there will be no machinery to put gears in
It is listening to these sorts of baseless scare campaigns based on pseudoscience that has driven societies toward pagan barbarity. Civilized societies have been drawn to barbarity and atrocity by constant messages of prophetic doom based on propaganda and suppression of scrutiny. Look at how Nazi lunacy was rammed down the throats of the German people. The way “climate change” lunacy and COVID hysteria are promoted use the same tactics.
It is up to us to get others to ask the questions that will wake them up. To do this, you MUST have common ground, such as the world is going crazy, which most people will agree on.
sauce
“*A continuing rise in average global sea level, which is likely to amount to more than a foot and a half by the year 2100. This, say the scientists, would inundate parts of many heavily populated river deltas and the cities on them, making them uninhabitable, and would destroy many beaches around the world. At the most likely rate of rise, some experts say, most of the beaches on the East Coast of the United States would be gone in 25 years. They are already disappearing at an average of 2 to 3 feet a year.
*An increase in extremes of temperature, dryness and precipitation in some regions. A United States Government study conducted by one of the panel’s scientists has shown that these extremes are increasing in America. There is a 90 to 95 percent chance, the study concluded, that climate change caused by the emission of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide is responsible
That prediction/model didn’t age well at all.
The 1.5 ft by 2100 seems to be factual — about 4mm/year. In the last 25 years we got about 10 cm of sea level rise. That 4 inches could possibly mean 3 ft of beach front, depending on the slope. All regular stuff happening for a long time, except for the breathlessness Of 25 years and “be gone”