INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
CREDIT: SHAOQING WANG
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that affects the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. This natural phenomenon is important to study because of the socioeconomic impacts it can have on matters such as food security, agricultural production, human health and water resources, to name but a few.
With its strong preference to peak during boreal winter and rapidly decay in spring (known as “phase-locking”), and quasi-periodic oscillations of 2–7 years, historically, ENSO rarely maintains for long in either its cold phase (La Niña) or warm phase (El Niño). However, since the turn of the current century, three instances of so-called “double dip” La Niña events have occurred, in 2007–09, 2010–12 and 2020–22.
This succession of double-dip La Niña events is intriguing enough in itself; but now, based on updated data from several organizations issued in April 2022, it seems that the current event is likely to continue through the boreal summer and fall of 2022, suggesting a strong possibility of a third-year La Niña lasting from 202023.
“This would be the first third-year La Niña since the 1998–2001 event, which was the only such event observed since 1980,” explains Dr Xianghui Fang from Fudan University, China.
By examining the status of the atmosphere–ocean system over the tropical Pacific in March 2022, Fang and his collaborator, Prof. Fei Zheng, from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, found that the equatorial central to eastern Pacific was still maintaining colder conditions than normal, and the southeasterly winds over the equatorial Pacific were appreciable.
The team analyzed the possible contributions of four physical factors related to the thermocline (the boundary between warmer ocean water at the surface and cooler water below) and surface winds in this potential third-year La Niña. Historically, the atmospheric variables in spring 2022 indicate the easterly and southerly winds will reach their largest amplitude since 1980, which supports the emergence of a third-year La Niña.
The team further discusses the possible global climate impacts of this impending third-year La Niña event in a News & Views article published in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. Specifically, they examine the only two other similar events in history, in 1973–1976 and 1998–2001, and, based on the similarities and differences, conclude that there is much uncertainty in predicting the climatic effects of the current event, both in terms of summer precipitation and winter temperature.
“Nonetheless, we should be aware of the risk of intense cold surges in Eurasia, which could also produce more cold extremes either in eastern or northeastern China,” Fang warns.
JOURNAL
Advances in Atmospheric Sciences
DOI
ARTICLE TITLE
Will the Historic Southeasterly Wind over the Equatorial Pacific in March 2022 Trigger a Third-year La Niña Event?
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
26-Jul-2022
So why is this newsworthy?
It happened in 1973–1976 and 1998–2001 and if it occurs now, that will be three times in 50 years.
If you were to think of this as an equal chance outcome, El Nino or La Nina AND they being independent, then to get a triple event would be like tossing a coin and getting heads three times in a row, to do this three times out of fifty tosses does NOT seem out of the ordinary. 3 heads in a row has a 1:8 chance of occurring. There are simple sums to work out the probability for this sequence. To only get 3 seems unusually low, not high.
Then again, as I suspect, there is a hidden detail or driver that means that the ‘coin tosses’ are NOT independent events, effectively, having an El Nina probably raises the chance of the next event being a La Nina, and vice versa.
I would have liked to have read WHY they influence the next season, that surely is the information that should be studied and could lead to better forecasts. I’d like to read about that.
Exactly. In random probability terms getting a triple-Niña every 20 years is nothing unexpected. Niñas are more probable during and after the solar activity has been low, and that is exactly what we observe in this case.
This is figure 10.11 from my book showing how ENSO follows the solar cycle by favoring neutral years when solar activity is high, and Niñas when it is low, with Niños perturbing the fit as they take place when the warm water volume anomaly (c) is high. (b) shows the 11-year frequency peak in ENSO frequency.
I must add that there are 1-3 Niños in a 5-year period, but 0-4 Niñas or neutral years, so the probability is not the same for each instance. It is a lot easier to get 3 Niñas in a row than 3 Niños.
Potentially related to 22yr solar cycle?
That’s why I like WUWT.
One often learns more from the comments than the articles themselves!
Yep, the point- counterpoint adds a lot of perspective to the subjects.
Eng_lan and Javier, leaving the cause alone, the effect of three years consecutive La Niña, depending where in the world you are, is quite negative. The easiest way to remember the impacts is to think of El Niño as a good boy, and La Niña as a bad girl (for sure not politically correct). So, the report is newsworthy because of the difficulty the event produces, including reducing the number of days I can play golf.
Actually getting the same weather deviation for a long time is very bad regardless of the type of weather. But fear not, next year it will not be a Niña year. This is a very solid prediction. There is a very high chance that it will be a Niño year.
See you on the golf course.
‘There is a very high chance that it will be a Niño year.’
I agree, but with the PDO in its negative phase we should expect El Nino to be muted. Exactly the same as the period from 2000 to 2010.
Southern Aust. Had its worse ever drought 2000-2010…just saying
“Eng_lan and Javier, leaving the cause alone, the effect of three years consecutive La Niña, depending where in the world you are, is quite negative.”
It has certainly been quite negative for the South-Central U.S. (Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas) as we haven’t had a decent rain in months.
Ain’t that the truth—my little bit of Texas hasn’t had more than 6 inches so far this year. Gonna have to hurry to get close to that 30 inch average.
Old Man winter post below has a map showing La Nina has different effects in different places
Texas it seems ‘should’ be still dry
I’m wondering if La Nina was involved in creating the Dust Bowl of the 1930’s.
A couple of more years of dry weather like this and we would start looking like the Dust Bowl again.
Since the 1930’s Dust Bowl, millions of trees have been strategically planted across the plains States in an effort to mitigate future Dust Bowl conditions.
The way it’s going, we may test those theories.
But, there’s a little bit of hope for my particular area: We are expecting a little rain Monday and Tuesday. We need every drop.
I had a grass fire a couple of days ago, which I managed to extinguish when the fire was about one foot from my house. A couple of more minutes of burning and I would have had a big problem. The wind was not blowing at the time, thank Goodness. I got real lucky. I just happened to be in the right place to get on it quick. I had the fire out before the fire department arrived.
Yes, we need some rain around here!
“So why is this newsworthy?”
Doesn’t that apply to 97% of alarmist coverage in the media? It’s 97% fabricated, anyway.
Any change in the weather is no longer just a change in the weather. It’s evidence of how evil the species is – h/t David Attenborough
Yes. Someone last week pointed out, above average weather occurs 50% of the time . Weather that is exactly average is quite rare
It is incidentally newsworthy. Many Europeans will have great difficulty heating their homes this winter.
Agreed. If we assume it’s a coin-toss then it’s the likelihood we’ll get three tails in a row on 22 tosses. Might very well – but also might not. The odds aren’t remotely long either way.
Now – what three La Ninas in a row might mean for temperature/weather – that’s potentially interesting.
It is just interesting that it is rather unusual but certainly not unheard of.
The key question to be addressed is, are ENSO cycles purely random events, and thus subject to simple statistical variation around a mean of some particular condition, or are they triggered by some non-random condition or event (such as solar sunspot cycles, or other astrophysical phenomena like Milankovich cycles, or something that has not yet been identified.
This information is significant in that it adds a data point that perhaps someday can fit into a model of how the climate works that is not presently understood.
What we actually know about climate is drastically less than what is knowable about climate. Contrary to the warmunists’ claims.
Potentially related to 22yr solar cycle?
Eng_lan said: “So why is this newsworthy?”
Because it is a new model that may provide insights into the SPB (spring predictability barrier). The model is based on air-sea variables from March only and predicts the Oct-Nov-Dec ENSO state via equation (1) with a focus on answering the question of whether wind stress will play a role in the upcoming La Nina and by how much.
You can extrapolate that out to four or even 5 in a row which has no doubt happened before many times over.
“Global warming should be called global heating, says key scientist
UK Met Office professor tells UN summit Earth’s ‘energy balance’ is changing” – The Grauniad
“we should be aware of the risk of intense cold surges “
Intense cold in a globally heating world? That’ll be their displaced polar vortex, then.
As for being aware, my political and media elites have started pantomime season well early this year. A remainer Parliament that is gradually ridding itself of Brexiteers in positions of power and any opponents of the net zero suicide pact.
Westminster is experiencing its own great reset…
“Boris Johnson jumps on plane for UK after Liz Truss resigns”
This time candidates need 100 MPs’ votes, word is he can get 140+
Carrie could get back into No 10
Aarrgghh………….
“the net zero suicide pact.”
That’s what it is.
She could, unless BoJo gets another knife in the back – either he sabotages himself or someone does it for him seems to be the established pattern. Not sure which would do the UK more harm – Carrie Johnson or Keir Starmer in no.10 – it’s close either way.
“Not sure which would do the UK more harm”
Then, let me remind you; it’s down to Parliament. They’re always first to claim a mandate from the people. Now let them accept responsibility to the people…..
Exactly. Forget it. It’s a dictatorship.
We have become a one party state where only the names and degrees of incompetence are changed. Possibly, if they are all fully signed up, as a form of vanguardism.
We are being lied to by people who call themselves scientists.
How does a warming world release intense cold surges?
Stating that it does is a straight out lie .
Rising levels of CO2 cannot cause cold snaps, and for that matter will not cause the world to warm very much from now on .
This is just covering their buts as unseasonal cold weather becomes more common around the world .
I heard our Prime Minister here in New Zealand blaming the October frosts which have caused serious harm to kiwi fruit and other crops on ” climate change “.
Now we have a “key ” scientist saying that global warming should be called global heating .
Lies lies and more lies .
That risk is called “the winter.” It is very much reduced during summer.
for aus rightnow its the IOD doing the work for the flooding
I noted ENSO been dropping right back to near neutral again last couple of weeks as the other kicks in.
west Vic copped an inch(24mm) rain in less than 45mins this arvo
hope the poor people further nth east dont get the same to add to the flood misery
Yes Wheels within wheels.
Looks like the Mary River in the Sunshine Coast Hinterlands will only have minor to moderate flooding as the rains seem to have stopped mid-Sunday morning. A storm belt this evening or more rains tomorrow could change that. Seems very early in the season for a flood here, but the winter has been wet and the hillsides are green, not brown as usual.
The ENSO cyclus is the sloshing of the Pacific driven by the small but measurable deceleration of the Earth’s rotation. It is the principle mechanism controlling the climate. It is a chaotic process with a timescale of typically a few years. The time between successive El Ninos can be anything from 3 to 7 years.
Significantly, none of all those super duper ocean-atmosphere coupled models produce anything like an ENSO cycle as an emergent phenomenon. That ought to tell people something.
Except the Earth’s rotation has been increasing the past three years. Does that mean it sloshes in the opposite direction?
The sign of the acceleration does not matter.
“The ENSO cyclus is the sloshing of the Pacific driven by the small but measurable deceleration of the Earth’s rotation.”
Where is the evidence for this?
There is significant evidence that the ENSO is a response to solar cycle warming/cooling. The first link below is from both my 2022 AGU posters, which depicts the tropical warming/cooling effect from solar cycle minimum to maximum and back again, and the second image is from my 2018 AGU poster, where in panel (d) I forecasted a low-TSI equatorial cooling period for 2020-2024?, which will eventually end from solar cycle #25 higher activity, higher TSI:
TSI has returned to high levels again but it takes time for the equatorial ocean to respond.
From the article, “With its strong preference to peak during boreal winter and rapidly decay in spring (known as “phase-locking”)”
This phase-locking is from the solar perihelion’s preferential warming effect on the equatorial ocean after Niño conditions have already been initiated by higher solar TSI or insolation.
https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-009-0905-2_4
https://www.persee.fr/doc/bifea_0303-7495_1993_num_22_1_1100
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/93JC00766
From the later: sea level ‘appears to vary by up to 45cm’ over the course of an ENSO event. Since that water has to come from or go somewhere, elsewhere sea level must vary the opposite way. For a body of water that is called ‘sloshing’.
Sloshing does not bring cold water up from the depths. Wind does. The changes in water elevations are caused by changing wind patterns.
On the other hand, sea level in the Western Pacific falls during strong El Nino. Why is it so?
If there is such a connection, which I doubt, it is likely to go in the other direction. The ENSO sloshing impacts the speed of the Earth’s rotation.
Excerpt from the summary.
“However, since the turn of the current century, three instances of so-called “double dip” La Niña events have occurred, in 2007–09, 2010–12 and 2020–22.”
Note that 2007-09 and 2010-12 coincide with the end of SC23 and 2020-22 coincide with the end of SC24.
In 2002 we predicted global cooling to start by 2020-2030 and in 2013 I refined that to “2020 or sooner” – I favor Feb2020 as the date of start-of-cooling, but some prefer Feb2016.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/17/open-thread-35/#comment-3603080
At this time, I have no opinion on the triple dip.
My concern now is Britain, Germany and the other European countries who have crippled their grids with intermittent green energy schemes.
I published on 28July2022:
“The big cull of the elderly of Europe will happen this winter – we predicted it in 2002 and 2013…”
Will British and German MP’s ever realize the harm they’ve done with their green nonsense?
Oh, yes! But not any time soon unless the coming winter is a real brute and there is enough evidence to convince even the most stubborn econut that nature simply is not playing the game according to their rules.
But since ‘climate’ has precious little to do with where these people are really trying to lead us (or perhaps that should be ‘push us’) it will probably need some grass roots activism before the message gets through.
Personally I’m hoping for some action from the gilets jaunes since trying to mobilise anyone on the other side of the Channel to do other than moan is a lost cause.
“But not any time soon unless the coming winter is a real brute.
Aye, there’s the rub! My very competent friend, meteorologist Joe Bastardi recently wrote:
Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis
On another subject, some forecasters have been projecting a milder than normal winter for Europe, which would be welcome with a red carpet due to the continent’s acute energy crisis.
However, Joe notes there are signs this may not be the case. That would mean the coming winter could become – in the current dire energy situation – the Mother of Nightmares: a bitter cold winter with energy outages. In the event of blackouts, which many experts warn have a high chance of occurring, Europe would then be facing a humanitarian and economic crisis on a scale not seen in a very long time.
“Look at what the surface maps are showing,” Bastardi says. “When you have high pressure over Greenland and Iceland, and low pressure over Spain like that, folks, that is an ugly looking situation for the winter. That is similar to 2010/11.”
More about:
Potential killer winter on top of acute energy crisis
I think Joe B and his partner Joe D’Aleo are among the very best long term weather forecasters, and I take their predictions very seriously. In a personal email to me, Joe wrote, ”It’s dire looking” and I agreed with him.
I recently concluded that “The (Covid-19) vaxxed are screwed”. It’s too late to turn that around; the damage has been done. I feel the same way about the Brits and Germans this winter – if Joe B’s forecast holds true, “The elderly and poor of Europe are screwed”. I am not happy about any of this. It was ALL the avoidable result of Covid and Climate false hysteria.
Most scientists are happy when their predictions are correct – I’ll be happy if mine are wrong.
And all this is based on unsubstantiated assumptions about the role of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere.
CO2-phobes have literally brought Europe to the brink of disaster with their unnecessary efforts to control CO2 output.
There is no evidence CO2 needs to be controlled or regulated, yet EU and UK leaders are putting their citizens in dire straights anyway in their delusional efforts to control CO2.
CO2 is a benign gas that isn’t hurting anyone. Putting people in jeopardy over it is insane.
“Will British and German MP’s ever realize the harm they’ve done with their green nonsense?”
They will tell you it wasn’t done in the right way. Socialism/Communism/Fascism 101
That’s how the old anti-capitalist left were overtaken by the new environmentally aware left.
Amazing how alliances can change, isn’t it.
Strativ: By now most of us know this is true.
“GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE ALARMISM WAS NEVER ABOUT THE SCIENCE – IT WAS ALWAYS A FALSE NARRATIVE, A SMOKESCREEN FOR THE TOTALITARIAN OBJECTIVES OF THE EXTREME LEFT.”
There was a good reason the subject paper was published on the 4th of July. We are at war, and we are being defeated by traitors from within.
HYPOTHESIS: RADICAL GREENS ARE THE GREAT KILLERS OF OUR AGE April 14, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/04/14/hypothesis-radical-greens-are-the-great-killers-of-our-age/
“My hypothesis is that ’Radical Greens are the Great Killers of Our Age’. Here is some of the supporting evidence.”
THE COST TO SOCIETY OF RADICAL ENVIRONMENTALISM July 4, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/04/the-cost-to-society-of-radical-environmentalism/
“Global warming and climate change alarmism was never about the science – it was always a false narrative, a smokescreen for the totalitarian objectives of the extreme left.”
WHAT THE GREEN NEW DEAL IS REALLY ABOUT — AND IT’S NOT THE CLIMATE July 19, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/07/20/what-the-green-new-deal-is-really-about-and-its-not-the-climate/
“The interesting thing about the Green New Deal, is it wasn’t originally a climate thing at all. Do you guys think of it as a climate thing? Because we really think of it as a how-do-you-change-the-entire-economy thing,” – Democratic New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s chief of staff, Saikat Chakrabarti.
THE LIBERALS’ COVERT GREEN PLAN FOR CANADA – POVERTY AND DICTATORSHIP October 1, 2019
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/01/the-liberals-covert-green-plan-for-canada-poverty-and-dictatorship/
“Unregulated consumerism was unsustainable and people would have to learn to make do with less. The government would have to have more control over people to enforce their austerity and the wealth of developed nations would have to be redistributed to help undeveloped nations.”
THE GREAT RESET: PLANNING THE THEFT OF CANADA? October 2, 2022
https://fcpp.org/2022/10/02/the-great-reset-planning-the-theft-of-canada/
“He explained, expecting me to agree, that Canada’s present economic model was seriously flawed and had to be replaced. I bit my tongue. He continued, people expected too much, unregulated consumerism was unsustainable and Canadians would have to learn to make do with less. The government would have to take more control over people’s lives and enforce an austere lifestyle. The present high economic expectations are the enemy and we would have to have a strong global government that would redistribute the wealth to poorer nations. Fossil fuels would be phased out on an accelerated timetable and air travel would be limited to need.”
I agree with you Allen ,
This all started with the Club of Rome who declared there are to many people on this earth.
If these fanatics ever get their way every county in the world would be poor with no spare cash to help undeveloped countries .
I am quite sure that the war on fossil fuel is a war against humanity and these people pushing the great reset believe that the world cannot support the present population .
This ” climate change ” is the biggest scam ever attempted with so many governments falling for it and signing up to the Paris Accord .
The UN is a large part of the problem but they did tell countries not to take action on climate change that affected world food supply’s.
What did our government in New Zealand just do ?
They announced that they are going to tax methane emissions from our farmed live stock which will restrict exports of food that feeds 30 million people around the world .
They want to be the first country in the world to tax methane emissions from farmed animals ,and also tax the use of nitrogen fertilizer which feeds half of the worlds population .
Methane from farmed livestock is a non problem as the process is a closed cycle .
Not one additional ATOM of carbon is added to the earths atmosphere.
Every kilogram of fodder that farmed animals consume has absorbed the gas of life CO2 to grow and the very small amount of methane CH4 is broken down in the upper atmosphere in 8 to 10 years .
It is a cycle but the idiots do not want to know .
They are the deniers with a hidden agenda .
as any one can see that this is a scam
Your Jacinda Ardern is one insane bobble-head. She chain-spouts falsehoods one after the other, while her head nods incessantly as she tries to coax her listener into accepting her rank CAGW and Covid BS.
Our Justin “L’il Fidel” Trudeau is worse – he appears to be mentally retarded – either naturally so, or a victim of fetal alcohol or crack-baby syndrome. He has collaborated with Klaus Schwab and the WEF in the Great Reset Scams – Climate and Covid. However, he does have a solid defense if he is ever tried for his obvious Treason. He will plead “Not Guilty by Reason of Stupidity”.”
And our neighbors to the South, the great US of A, have their own leadership problems – this is scary, and cruel:
https://patriotpost.us/videos/91783-joe-biden-the-wanderer-2022-10-04
I see where Dictator Trudeau is taking away Canadians handguns now.
It’s a process. The Wa-na-be Dictators take one freedom after another away from you, and before you know it, you don’t have any freedoms any more.
That’s what Joe Biden and his crew of Dictatorial Democrats are trying to do down here in the United States.
Fortunately, it looks like the American voters are going to slam the brakes on Biden’s destructive agenda.
I’m sorry to say, it doesn’t look so good for Canada.
But you can always move down here after the common-sense Republicans take over. Assuming that happens.
“Will British and German MP’s ever realize the harm they’ve done with their green nonsense?”
Good question.
Depends on how badly they’ve stitched their constituents up. They do, you know.
Certainly the German contingent seems hasn’t learned a damned thing. The two world wars are but a fading bad dream to those who didn’t live through them. Same old pattern of behavior – we’re the only ones who are correct, so fall into line, comrade.
Somebody else will be blamed, Putin, the Russians, heterosexual white old males…
Labour have started blaming the whole energy crisis on Tory mismanagement of the economy, nothing to do with the climate change stupidity.
Presumably nothing to do with their Climate Change Act malarkey.
I remember winter 2000/01 being mild in europe.
https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronshem/status/1560266505597886466
At least they have that going for them.
You will be amused to know that the egregious John Timmer, over at Ars Technica, has discovered that Europe will be just fine this winter, because of, guess what?
Wind and Solar!
You see, what is slowly dawning on Putin, according to Dr Timmer, is that Europe, thanks to its renewables being cheaper than fossil fuels, doesn’t need him any more. And Europe is successfully reducing its dependency on gas, and filling its gas reserves to 90% of capacity.
Do you wonder why it needs to do that if it is reducing its need for gas so much? Stop making sense! You must be one of those denialists!
Anyway, this is suggested to be one reason for the invasion of the Ukraine – the fact that Russian gas is losing its clout.
Its worth reading the comments on the piece. In addition to being gifted amateur energy planners, the commenters are also gifted amateur military strategists and confidently assert what Nato can and will do if Putin blasts the Norwegian pipelines that bring all this totally unneeded gas to the UK and Europe.
They will, according to the armchair strategists, destroy the Russian oil wells and the Black Sea port of Sevastopol. And this, in their view, will be just fine and teach them Russkies a lesson.
Heaven help us. These are who consider themselves to be the best and brightest in the USA!
If you go over there and comment, above all don’t mention intermittency. You will find yourself banned in a matter of seconds.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/10/the-worlds-energy-situation-is-not-as-terrible-as-you-might-expect/
They ban people? I wouldn’t bother with them if you can’t say what you want to say.
Thanks for the pain michel 🙁
The comments are worth reading only to reinforce how delusional so many are about “renewables”. They see absolutely no downside at all.
When was this article written? We knew it would be a triple La Nina in the early summer because this La Nina strengthened then. Here it is October, and now we are being warned about something we knew was happening four months ago.
You just have to look.
It was actually a very fast track, with just two months between receiving the article and publishing it. Quite often the process takes several months to a year, and if it has to be sent to more than one journal it can be 2 or 3 years. Science has become slower as a result of the changes to the editorial process.
The intent of the publication is to present a new model based on March variables to predict the Oct-Nov-Dec ENSO state. The primary question the publication is answering is whether the wind stress in March will contribute to the extension of the La Nina and by how much. The publication is not meant as a warning of a triple-dip La Nina; at least not that’s not the focus anyway.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yc3u4yij9Gg&t=22s Not all scientists agree
Elsewhere here (in comments) earlier in the year – but not at the beginning of the hurricane season, I claimed that I had a new *very simple* model that predicted 11-17 tropical storms and 5-9 hurricanes, 2-4 of which would be major hurricanes. At the moment we stand at 11, 5, and 2 and it’s looking like we should expect no more significant activity this season. I only very sheepishly stated my prediction because it seemed so unlikely I could be even close to right because my numbers were so ridiculously low compared to “professional” predictions it seemed like I *had* to be expecting to be proven wildly wrong – but here I am looking at my predictions being at least as good as the best the “professionals” have even done and I would argue still too conservative!
My model allows me to predict next years season now – and while I will not post the exact numbers here I will foreshadow they aren’t much different from this years model. The “professionals” won’t make a prediction now so I will wait for them. And I won’t change my prediction mid-season to reflect trends already underway (like they do) – I didn’t change my prediction this year even though we heard a lot of, “2022 hurricane season gets of to early start,” stuff back in June.
Looking forward to see how I do. If my numbers next year are good I’ll describe my model then and make predictions for the following year. Perhaps I can make some (non-monetary) wagers then on the outcome of the 2024 season…
Interesting. Would you mind sharing the details of your model?
When and if I post the 2024 predictions and take challengers.
Looking forward to hearing more from you on this, Merrick.
Typical La Nina winter climate impacts-
La Nina will now operate mainly in the south, with the pattern of the stratospheric polar vortex (which is not circular at all) in the north. La Nina will intensify through November, fueled by water from melting Antarctic ice.
Could be related to 22yr solar cycle?
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/10/21/scientists-warn-of-a-rare-third-year-la-nina/#comment-3624664
It would mean massive snow depth for my local mountain. 300+ inch base.
https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-data
We just finished the weakest solar cycle in 100yrs.
If you had a friend with an above ground pool, you’d remember when everyone would walk in a circle, adding energy, it’d create a smooth, controlled whirlpool. It was when everyone got out or stopped that the water became choppy & chaotic with rogue waves.
https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronshem/status/1560266505597886466
The AMO has been in its Hot phase during the 80s and 90s. It peaked arount 2005. Now it’s running down the Cold phase.
Give it another 10 years and we’ll be worrying about Ice Ages again, like the 1970s…
dodgy,
If you are right – I have no expertise, and no view – perhaps destroying reliable generation might seem a little silly .. .. … …
Auto
For silly, read positively suicidal.
It’s almost as if the climate followed a roughly 60-year cycle, or something.
Could it have been the cause of warming? Nah, of course not!
“It’s almost as if the climate followed a roughly 60-year cycle, or something.”
Isn’t it, though! 🙂
The AMO index does not agree with your dates. The AMO was negative from 1962-1995 when it began its shift to positive by 1997. The AMO is still positive and likely to remain so for at least a few more years.
It’s possible the index was impacted by the Pinatubo eruption cooling and would have become positive sooner had the eruption not occurred. Since the cause of the AMO phase changes is still unknown, the actual date of the next phase change is uncertain.
Potentially related to 22yr solar cycle?
If it was the third Nino year in a row, the media would be all over it saying climate change is killing us all. Bet you don’t hear much about this in the MSM if anything at all.
We see a very stabilized state of La Niña. This condition will continue until there is a strong accumulation of warm water under the surface of the western Pacific. This will not happen until the easterly winds at the equator stabilize. As the polar vortex collapses over the Bering Sea and the northern jet current is meridional the situation at the equator will not change. This will not be allowed by strong fluctuations in solar activity (solar wind), which affect the circulation in the stratosphere.
The graphic below shows that the distribution of subsurface water temperature is virtually unchanged as of July 2022.
Why the “1980” cherry-pick: “This would be the first third-year La Niña since the 1998–2001 event, which was the only such event observed since 1980“, followed up by “Specifically, they examine the only two other similar events in history, in 1973–1976 and 1998–2001” [my bold]. It is not exactly difficult to find records going back earlier. eg, Wikipedia;s “La Niña” page would be an easy place to start. It shows triple La Niñas before 1980 in 1954–57 and 1973–76, and in 1998–2001 of course. About every 20 years, for well over half a century.
I’ll answer my own question. It’s actually quite difficult to find La Niña data which does not go back before 1980, so the cherry-pick must surely be absolutely deliberate, not just sloppy research. The quotes are from a Fudan University Dr, in a “peer-reviewed” “scientific” paper. I am disappointed that this egregious rubbish appears in a Chinese scientific journal, because I would have hoped that their standards were higher than today’s sub-zero standards of many western institutions. My guess is that the lying manipulative so-and-sos did the cherry-pick so that they could help China to use our own weaknesses to destroy us.
No matter what, we’re stuffed until we get these lying mongrels defeated.
The observations of ENSO conditions go back hundreds of years and evidence of previous El Nino’s or La Nina’s are found thousands of years in the past, but it was only in the 1920’s that the ENSO mechanism was really first identified. Even after that, El Nino’s or La Nina’s were only identified by observations at the time – 1974 was the very first year that the mechanism was understood enough so that accurate predictions could be made. I would hedge my bets on this one and suggest that there may be some cherry-picking going on or they may be using the most accurate data rather than earlier observations.
Sorry but your defence doesn’t hold water. Two such events 20 years apart in a 40-year period cannot justify any suggestion of historical rarity. Also, their “only two other similar events in history” does refer to a pre-1980 event but there are clearly two such events in the record. The four identified events maintain the ~20-year spacing, so maybe the real question is how the 2030s missed out.
The last triple La Niña was just after the big 1998 El Niño
So this one is a reaction to the big 2016 El Niño?
Is this just the reality of the climate balancing over time?
ENSO is an enigma, seeming to operate as a thermostat.
Looking at the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, now in its negative phase, the coming decade should have weak El Nino.