The Permian Basin: The gift that keeps on giving!

Guest “Peak Productivity” by David Middleton

Data source: Enverus

SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
Advances in technology led to record new well productivity in the Permian Basin in 2021

The Permian Basin in western Texas and eastern New Mexico is one of the world’s most prolific unconventional oil- and natural gas-producing regions. The Permian Basin has become more productive because of the technological advancements in drilling and completion techniques, which allow operators to economically extract hydrocarbons from the low permeability reservoirs.

The stacked reservoirs of the Permian Basin, and the Delaware and Midland subbasins within it, vary in thickness and depth. Improved geological understanding, known as subsurface delineation, helps operators place wells to optimize well spacing in the most productive areas.

The Permian Basin has produced oil and associated natural gas from vertical wells for decades. Since 2010, advances in hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling led to rapid production growth. The number of new horizontal wells increased to 4,524 in 2021, compared with 350 in 2010. In June 2022, the Permian Basin accounted for about 43% of U.S. crude oil production and 17% of U.S. natural gas production (measured as gross withdrawals).

The length of a well’s horizontal section, or lateral, is a key factor in well productivity. In the Permian Basin, average well horizontal length has increased to more than 10,000 feet in the first nine months of 2022, compared with less than 4,000 feet in 2010.

Data source: Enverus
Note: 2022 values reflect data between January and September.

Compared with other U.S. basins, the Permian Basin benefits from lower operational costs, better access to oilfield services, and its proximity to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries and export facilities.

The average productivity of new wells in the Permian Basin has grown for 12 consecutive years. Core areas of the Permian Basin, and its Delaware and Midland subbasins, contain multiple stacked shale formations. By 2021, each new well drilled in the Permian Basin was producing an average of 960 barrels of oil equivalent per day. Our Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that Permian production will continue to drive growth in total U.S. crude oil and natural gas production.

Principal contributors: Olga Popova, Gary Long

Tags: natural gas, Texas, liquid fuels, oil/petroleum, states, New Mexico, map

EIA

An amazing decade

Source: Enverus
Check out our time series animation of Permian Basin production

Source: Enverus
Check out our time series animation of Permian Basin production

The data for the EIA maps and graphs came from a Enverus (formerly Drilling Info). The Permian Basin was described as “near infinite resource” in a 2017 Forbes interview of Drilling Info’s founder Allen Gilmer. At the time it was written, the Permian Basin was producing 2.5 million barrels of oil per day (bbl/d), up from 1 million bbl/d in 2011. As of September 2022, it’s producing over 5.3 million bbl/d. Most of the “explosive production growth” occurred after Mr. Gilmer described the Permian Basin as a “near infinite resource”… because that’s what it is.

“We should view the Permian Basin as a permanent resource,” he says, “The Permian is best viewed as a near infinite resource – we will never produce the last drop of economic oil from the Basin.”

Forbes

According to EIA estimates, the Permian Basin is now producing more than 2.5 million barrels of oil per day (see top chart), which is an annual rate of nearly 1 billion barrels of oil. If Gilmer’s estimate is correct that the Permian Basin holds an additional half a trillion barrels of recoverable oil, that would be a 500-year supply of oil at the current production level, and at 2 trillion barrels, a 2,000 year supply! And if that’s an accurate forecast of Permian Basin reserves, Gilmer’s description of the Permian Basin as a “permanent, near infinite resource” makes perfect sense because the probability is pretty close to zero that we’ll be using fossil fuels even 100 years from now, much less 500 years or 2,000 years in the future.

Mark Perry, AEI

The major plays of the Permian Basin are “stacked.” Finding stacked pay is like getting a pony for Christmas. Finding stacked plays is like getting a herd of Unicorn ponies for Christmas.

Schematic cross-section of the Permian Basin, click to enlarge. (SEG Wiki)

Malthus, Ehrlich and now… Peak Permian

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tgasloli
October 4, 2022 2:08 pm

Give Dementia Joe another 2 years and he’ll find a way to shut it down. As Obama said, “never underestimate Joe’s ability to F___ things up.”

Bryan A
Reply to  tgasloli
October 5, 2022 1:11 pm

Given OPECs apparent collusion with Russia to drive up the price of FF, Uncle Joe should stop movin kinda slow and reinvigorate American Energy Independence. Then the Dems MIGHT stand a chance of retaining some seats in both houses. If not, they could lose badly in the midterms and further in 2024. (Both houses AND the Cat Bird Seat).

roaddog
Reply to  tgasloli
October 5, 2022 9:25 pm

He plans to surrender it to the Cartels.

Tom Halla
October 4, 2022 2:08 pm

And the clowns around Biden want to interfere with production in New Mexico. Something about methane.

Mac
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 4, 2022 4:00 pm

Good old Deb Haaland a house rep that Brandon appointed as Secretary of the Interior is anti fossil fuel. The basin is a huge tax producer for New Mexico and even some democrats went ballistic over her position although at least one democratic rep and both senators are also anti fossil fuel.. NM is one of the poorest states in the nation (been in democratic hands for 60 yrs or so with an occasional repub gov or representative).

PCman999
Reply to  Mac
October 4, 2022 6:50 pm

Poor state in Democratic hands – those two things seem to go together!

Tom Abbott
Reply to  PCman999
October 5, 2022 3:09 am

Yes, they do. That’s because, among other things, the Democrats are clueless about economics.

The Democrats’ idea of economics is to spend as much taxpayer money as possible as fast as you can and damn the consequences.

That is what has happened in our current inflation-plagued situation.

Last edited 1 month ago by Tom Abbott
John Furst
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 5, 2022 4:32 am

The middle sentence is right…and describe D’s economics. The government can suck the productive economy dry by printing money and spending it well into the future–right up to the point of depression–and then spend more!
The Fed and Congress have enriched themselves by impoverishing the rest of us.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 5, 2022 11:03 am

And thus the advent of digital currency is needed since the money printing presses are much too slow to keep up and not climate friendly….

US starts fiscal year with record $31 trillion in debt (yahoo.com)

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Tom Halla
October 5, 2022 10:54 am

The PR tactical recipe is look busy on complaints to OPEC, attack gas station prices, interfere with domestic production and development, and quietly rejoice in high oil and gas prices without direct blame.

October 4, 2022 2:15 pm

Hat tip to Julian Simon. He won the bet and Ehrlich still hasn’t yet shut up.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Paul Stevens
October 5, 2022 11:04 am

They make money off mouthing don’t you know.

ResourceGuy
October 4, 2022 2:27 pm

I still don’t think the general public, policymakers, and Griff-types understand. In short order the technical change of fracking took oil exploration from high-cost, high-risk vertical drilling to lower risk in the same hydrocarbon basins as well as new or forgotten ones. Those who predicted decline of frack production after 20 years (IEA) never really understood the volumetric implications of huge producing basins with lateral wells from the same pad and further productivity in drilling and completion work. I suppose it was like that at first with the invention of the transistor at Bell Labs. Er I guess we discounted that one too when we had to play catchup on semis in recent times.

griff
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 5, 2022 2:33 am

Hmmm… I was under the impression much of it was a Ponzi scheme, where the fund raising for the next play covered the costs of the current one.

and since the best sites were developed first, it was a case of ever diminishing returns.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 3:16 am

Griff, you have a lot of erroneous impressions.

Terry Anderson
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 5, 2022 4:50 am

It is all he has.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 6:55 am

Stacked production from different formations did not develop immediately so some early well development (drilling campaigns) did not include deeper wells and multiple frac horizons. The incremental cost savings of drilling methods and long-term production rates from horizontal wells offset your mile-high observation of diminishing returns. That brings up another key question and metric of where the vast numbers of marginal or abandoned wells are in the frac wells database. If horizontal frac wells have a much longer life than vertical wells, one would expect a longer, thicker tail on the production profile. That is unlike the early trolling effort to diminish fracking by claiming very fast decline of the wells from initial production. The trolls and their target audience did not account for the unusually high starting points for production and the full production profile under the curve of these wells. At the field level, the cost of production declined as infrastructure was added and competing sand and other suppliers arrived. In the case of the Permian, much more of that infrastructure was already there but more was added. It is the Canadian producers that have not benefited from much needed pipeline capacity additions thanks to advocacy politics and glacial regulation response. We’ll now see how OPEC+ treats you with new production cuts.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 7:34 am

Ponzi schemes do not get anywhere near the world’s top producer level of nations. They tend to be more hit and run plays screening for the uninformed lacking due diligence, i.e. Madoff, Thomas Gold, Solyndra, Crescent Dunes, and crypto.

List of Ponzi schemes – Wikipedia

Fraizer
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 9:41 am

I think you are confusing real energy production with wind farms Griffo.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 10:38 am

People like griff and bigoilbob are constantly underestimating the potential of human ingenuity. In fact, it is the only reason we still exist as a species since we don’t have the physical attributes necessary to survive on that basis only (no claws, fangs, thick hide, etc.)

Over billions of years unimaginable amounts of hydrocarbons were sequestered and converted into coal, oil, and gas. We have barely scratched the surface in extracting it, but as our technology and knowledge increases, we will be able to tap into more and more it. For at least the next few generations of humans, it is effectively an infinite resource.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  Paul Penrose
October 5, 2022 11:35 am

griff is a reality denier.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 11:07 am

That’s not even getting to the fact that oil targets moved from traps and other migrated oil to source beds and other massive lateral formations. How many knew that? show of hands now

Pat Frank
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 5, 2022 2:31 pm

I was collaborating on research with a friend who worked at Chevron (on sea squirt blood cells, not oil).

Back in the 90’s he told me that there was a good 10x more oil in the source rock (shale), than there is in the basins with trapped fluids. But he had no idea then, how to get to it.

That problem has been solved, and evidently with steadily improving efficiency. One suspects that remaining fossil fuels will last for centuries, supposing we need them that long.

And if atmospheric CO₂ should get to 1000 ppmv as a result, plant life will be dancing for joy, globally.

And the global climate? From icebox (now) to refrigerator. Maybe.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 11:32 am

Got yer battery car and heat pump yet?

Fraizer
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 5, 2022 9:40 am

Friend of mine was going through his Dad’s things after he passed. Found a physics book that claimed that solid state transistors were an experimental technology with few practical applications.

No one ever knows what they don’t know.

roaddog
Reply to  ResourceGuy
October 5, 2022 9:33 pm

Democrats actually have a specialist on lateral drilling on staff. I’ll let you guess her name.

bigoilbob
October 4, 2022 2:30 pm

Yet another Permian swoon. And as usual, none of your graphs or comments goes to the ever increasing, boring old petroleum engineering/economics problems, most of which are insoluble. Reduced candidate quality, competitive drainage, reduced EUR’s from frac hits, spiraling service costs, and increasing recognition that the players might have to actually honor their freely assumed (and ballooning) asset retirement costs. The closest thing you have to an answer are these longer laterals. Technically commendable, but dEUR/dlateral length is shrinking fast. Scott Sheffield apparently agrees with me, which is why his (POTUS free) remarks have consistently been that he will “discipline” his CAPEX, no matter what.

We could go round, but let’s just make a simple bet. If Pioneer Natural Resources, the best operator in the play, replaces 2023 PDP SEC Permian* oil reserves, I will post, in this fora “Living with genital herpes has made me a better man”. If not, then you. The data is published annually, and we can compare their Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 press releases to find out. I would make this bet for 2022 PDP oil reserves, but there’s still a (shrinking) inventory of low hanging DUC’s left over from the pandemic that will be mostly harvested this year.

  • I actually don’t recall if they break out reserves by field. But if not, PXD is so Permian oriented that I would make the same bet company wide.
rah
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 4, 2022 3:40 pm

Leftist fools are always either ignorant of history or fail to learn a thing from its lessons.
We’ve Been Incorrectly Predicting Peak Oil For Over a Century (gizmodo.com)1909: 25 or 30 years longer“Petroleum has been used for less than 50 years, and it is estimated that the supply will last about 25 or 30 years longer. If production is curtailed and waste stopped it may last till the end of the century. The most important effects of its disappearance will be in the lack of illuminants. Animal and vegetable oils will not begin to supply its place. This being the case, the reckless exploitation of oil fields and the consumption of oil for fuel should be checked.”
— July 19, 1909 Titusville Herald (Titusville, PA)
Image: Oil field in Beaumont, Texas circa 1901 via AP
1919: Two to five years until maximum production“In meeting the world’s needs, however, the oil from the United States will continue to occupy a less and less dominant position, because within the next two to five years the oil fields of this country will reach their maximum production and from that on we will face an ever increasing decline.”
— October 23, 1919 Oil and Gas News
Image: Burkburnett, Texas in 1919 via Library of Congress
1937: Gone in 15 yearsCapt. H. A. Stuart, director of the naval petroleum reserves, told the Senate Naval Affairs Committee today the oil supply of this country will last only about 15 years.
“We have been making estimates for the last 15 years,’ Stuart said. ‘We always underestimate because of the possibility of discovering new oil fields. The best information is that the present supply will last only 15 years. That is a conservative estimate.'”
— March 9, 1937 Brooklyn Daily Eagle
Image: Oil field in Los Angeles circa 1935 via Getty
1943: Peak oil has been reached“There is a growing opinion that the United States has reached its peak oil production, the Oil and Gas Journal pointed out in its current issue. Since 1938, discoveries of new oil have not equaled withdrawals, in any single year, although there is a very good chance that 1943 will see enough new Ellenburger oil in West Texas to provide an excess.”
— June 7, 1943 Bradford Evening Star (Bradford, PA)
Image: Oil truck in New Orleans in 1943 via Library of Congress
1945: Just thirteen years left“Faced with the threat that our nation’s petroleum reserves may last only thirteen years, geologists are striving to tap the almost limitless supply of oil located beneath the seas off our coastline. The first attempt to get oil from the depths of the Atlantic Ocean was begun this month near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and Secretary of the Interior Harold L. Ickes revealed that the scientists are making progress in their efforts to reach the underwater oil.”
— December 10, 1945 Times Recorder (Zanesville, Ohio)
Image: Oil-burning train in London circa 1946 via Getty
1956: Ten to fifteen years until peak oil“M. King Hubbert of the Shell Development Co. predicted [one year ago] that peak oil production would be reached in the next 10 to 15 years and after that would gradually decline.”
— March 9, 1957 Corpus Christi Times (Corpus Christi, TX)
Gas station attendant wearing rollerskates in 1958 via Getty
1966: Gone in ten years“A geologist stuck a figurative dipstick into the United States’ oil supplies Tuesday and estimated that the country may be dry in 10 years.”
— August 3, 1966 Brandon Sun (Brandon, Manitoba)
Image: North Sea drilling rig circa 1965 via Getty
1972: U.S. oil depleted in twenty years“At any rate, U.S. oil supplies will last only 20 years. Foreign supplies will last 40 or 50 years, but are increasingly dependent upon world politics.”
— May 1972 Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Image: Four people on horses in Amsterdam in 1973 during a day when cars are banned due to the oil crisis via Getty
1977: Oil will peak by the early 90s“As a nation, Americans have been reluctant to accept the prospect of physical shortages. We must recognize that world oil production will likely peak in the early 1990’s, and from that point on will be on a declining curve. By the early part of the 21st century, we must face the prospect of running out of oil and natural gas.”
— 1977 US Department of Energy Organization Act
Image: French fireman clean up an oil spill in 1978 via Getty
1980: In the year 2000“Stressing the need for conservation, [physicist Dr. Hans] Bethe said the world will reach its peak oil production before the year 2000. Production of oil worldwide will then drop to zero over about 20 years, he said. Rigorous conservation could stretch the world’s oil supply to the year 2050, he said.
— October 17, 1980 Syracuse Post Standard (Syracuse, NY)
Image: Oil rig workers in England in 1980 via Getty
1996: Peak oil likely by 2020“Unfortunately, oil production will likely peak by 2020 and start declining. Without a change, developing countries will ultimately be left in the dark, and developed countries will struggle to keep the lights on. Conflict is inevitable. My guess is that this won’t become a big issue unless there is a thalidomide event. We will have to see in the rear-view mirror that we are past the peak in worldwide oil production.”
— Richard Smalley, Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996
Image: Oil rig platform in 1998 via Getty
2002: Global peak by the year 2010“Global supplies of crude oil will peak as early as 2010 and then start to decline, ushering in an era of soaring energy prices and economic upheaval — or so said an international group of petroleum specialists meeting Friday.”
— May 25, 2002 Index Journal (Greenwood, SC)
Image: Oil platforms off the coast of Santa Barbara in 2001 via Getty
2007: Sometime between now and 2040Most studies estimate that oil production will peak sometime between now and 2040. This range of estimates is wide because the timing of the peak depends on multiple, uncertain factors that will help determine how quickly the oil remaining in the ground is used, including the amount of oil still in the ground; how much of that oil can ultimately be produced given technological, cost, and environmental challenges as well as potentially unfavorable political and investment conditions in some countries where oil is located; and future global demand for oil.
— February 2007 GAO Report
Image: Gas flare near an abandoned building in North Dakota in 2013 via Getty

HotScot
Reply to  rah
October 4, 2022 4:18 pm

Blimey. A bit like catastrophic climate change predictions.

Regular as broken clockwork, and always wrong.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  HotScot
October 5, 2022 9:47 am

We have lived (and died) with the same sort of FEAR regarding the flu. “never let a crisis go to waste”

Bryan A
Reply to  Sturmudgeon
October 5, 2022 1:59 pm

That’s because they have the goal post attached to the end of a Slide Rule

Gunga Din
Reply to  rah
October 4, 2022 5:02 pm

I predict we’ll run out oil 3 years after the oceans boil or the ice melts at both poles, whichever comes first.

bigoilbob
Reply to  Gunga Din
October 4, 2022 5:10 pm

So, you are encouraging Mr. Middleton to take my bet?

Gunga Din
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 4, 2022 5:23 pm

Short post that has nada to do with mine.

Besides, I don’t bet. I don’t even buy lottery tickets. Why would I encourage anybody else to do so?

Last edited 1 month ago by Gunga Din
bigoilbob
Reply to  Gunga Din
October 5, 2022 6:19 am

No $ involved. It channels Dana Milbank’s 2016 bet that if T**** won the Repub presidential nomination, he would eat his column predicting his loss.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/politics/watch-dana-milbank-eats-his-words-literally/2016/05/12/84a97e4c-185c-11e6-971a-dadf9ab18869_video.html

Graham
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 4, 2022 6:18 pm

Put your money where your mouth is Big Oiley bob .What about $1,000,000.00 smackers put in a trust that the world runs out of oil in the next ten years .
You have no knowledge of how much oil is under the land or under the sea .
I have been hearing that the world is running out of oil reserves for over 50 years and it hasn’t happened yet .
I very much doubt that you have any expertise in oil extraction or exploration .
Show us your credentials or go take a jump .

bigoilbob
Reply to  Graham
October 5, 2022 6:07 am

If Mr. Middleton can’t even man up to risk a little laugh in a year and a half, why would I entertain a bet based on a statement I never made?

My contention is not that in 10 years we will “run out of oil”. Just the fact that shale wells decline curves are more than hyperbolic, and the newer ones will produce at stripper rates, lifted, for longer than that, will insure that we have some oil for longer. And technology will improve – albeit with no real impact on the curves. All you need to do is to look at how we petroleum engineers have utterly failed to find an economic solution to frac hits to see that.

Rather, I contend that PXD’s 2024 SEC PDP reserves will not replace 2023 production, which will be the confirming indicator that 2024 will be the beginning of the end for economic CONUS oil production. And I’m willing to make this harm free bet with anyone on that.

FYI, if you had taken me up on the same offer with me w.r.t. the 2016 POTUS election, you would have had a documented fun spot that you could have trotted out indefinitely. I offered up this bet here, and in several other fora. The only problem was, as with here, lots of blather, but no takers…

DonM
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 5, 2022 9:48 am

minor issue.

Your ‘harm free’ bet may not be such.

Your own personal & physical issues may have indeed made you a better man. My guess is, given the baseline, that personal improvement for you would have been a very easy task. And your statement would be true.

Others, that haven’t made repeated mistakes as you did, through unwarranted/uncontrolled risk, would be misrepresenting themselves as lessor men.

Last edited 1 month ago by DonM
bigoilbob
Reply to  rah
October 4, 2022 5:03 pm

Long post, which has nada to do with mine. All I’m aksin’ of Mr. Middleton is to bet on is a hard indicator of CONUS Peak Oil. I.e., replacement of 2023 Pioneer SEC PDP Permian oil reserves in Q1 2024.

If the best operator in the best CONUS oil play can’t even do it, then we’re functionally S.O.L. w.r.t. CONUS upstream oil sustainability. If his economics free optimism is borne out, this should be easily attained. In fact, my terms should be a birds nest on the ground for him. Pioneer is the smartest producer in the play. and might very likely buy Permian barrels from less skillful players in 2023. So, since I specifically did not restrict my bet to drill bit barrels, if he is even a little lucky, I will be the losing bettor.

But, to paraphrase Frank Semyon, “Keep your rings on. It’s not going to make any difference”.

Last edited 1 month ago by bigoilbob
John Garrett
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 4, 2022 5:50 pm

That’s a bogus proposition.

Middleton should quite properly ignore such a ridiculous idea.

Prices make reserves.

bigoilbob
Reply to  John Garrett
October 5, 2022 5:51 am

What’s bogus about it? Not rhetorical, what? If Mr. Middleton has any confidence at all in his keyboard commando’ing, he should grab it up.

And yes, prices are certainly part of SEC PDP reserve runs. Which is yet another factor weighing towards Mr. Middleton’s slipper clicking. And yes, PDP reserves are really the only kind that actually tell us where the biz is going. So, if he believes what he types, there’s no reason for him not to take my simple bet.

ATheoK
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 5, 2022 6:11 am

Specious rhetoric without substance or value.

bigoilbob
Reply to  ATheoK
October 5, 2022 6:29 am

More spine free bloviating. But I’ve grown used to it.

Hey, I’ll even sweeten the bet. Since I encourage methane capture, I’ll enhance the bet to compare BOE’s. That way, if Pioneer reduces their (actually illegal) flaring in 2023, and those efforts result in increased 2024 PDP gas bookings, they get credit for them…

bigoilbob
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 11:31 am

I would have to read the comment in order to see what I would be ignoring…”

Since you had to follow the thread down to Mr. Garrett’s last comment, I find that hard to believe. I was also surprised by your convictional cowardice. I threw you the softest of soft balls, and you lacked the nads to swing.

I’d aks if all Texans worm out when the going gets tough, but that wouldn’t be fair to Texans. Maybe it’s a habit you picked up from GOP senators from both of our states…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MA0TFwgbBKI

Bryan A
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 5, 2022 2:07 pm

It will only happen IF the current regimen isn’t replaced in 2024. If the Dim-O-Crats keep control then production may drop. If however control is returned to Sanity, oil production will rise in late 2025 or early 2026. Unless Biden catches on WRT the only way he stands a chance of retaining power i.e. domestic energy supply increase

Scissor
Reply to  rah
October 4, 2022 5:51 pm

I wonder what Smalley meant by, “My guess is that this won’t become a big issue unless there is a thalidomide event.” Was he prescient?

I met him before he won the Nobel Prize for Buckey Balls. Smart guy. He died of cancer in 2005.

griff
Reply to  rah
October 5, 2022 2:35 am

Yes, every time we predicted peak oil, a new technology has come along and produced more.

But apparently that can’t happen in things like rare earth mining

Tom Abbott
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 3:27 am

Acquiring the materials needed for electric cars for the whole world is not attainable in the time frame you imagine.

Electrifying all the cars in Britain alone would require all the rare earth metals available in the world. That’s just one small country.

And alarmists want to do this for the whole world. You guys are living in a dreamworld, Griff. It’s not going to happen any time soon.

The magnitude of the problem is apparently beyond the conception of alarmists. They are in denial of reality.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 4:16 am

Tell us, which part of the word “RARE” does not sink through your thick skull?

roaddog
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
October 5, 2022 9:38 pm

I think dilute might actually be more accurate.

ATheoK
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 6:18 am

Another topic where giffie ignorance is without bounds.

Many mines have trace to small amounts of rare earth metals/elements.

With China literally dumping rare earths onto the world market at ridiculously low prices, most of those mines stopped separating rare earths due to cost.

The tailings from those mines still contain rare earths. When rare earth prices return to normal, those rare earths are recoverable.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 6:58 am

You underestimate the anti-competitive position of the Chinese as dominant producers and processors in that business.

rah
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 8:52 am

You of course forgot to mention that also new basins for recoverable oil have been found.

You leftists believe that humans can control everything, including the weather and climate. But you never think that humans can solve other problems, like economically recovering oil from places it was never possible before.

mal
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 9:47 am

Certainly cannot happen when mining permits are opposed by the greens and the Biden administration. Biden rejected mining permit on of the larges reserves of copper, nickel and cobalt in the US. Were the hell Griff you think those magic mines are going to come from? When even the known reserves are being rejected from being extracted.

roaddog
Reply to  mal
October 5, 2022 9:39 pm

This is the single biggest problem that the Climate Nutters have created, for themselves. Objective reality is such a burden.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 3:05 pm

Some history…

There are some mineral investment and mine finance lessons here. Long-run expectations of price do not match the short run moves or the modified supply curve that develops.

Mountain Pass sells for $20.5 million – MINING.COM

The collapse of American rare earth mining — and lessons learned (defensenews.com)

Bryan A
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 10:48 pm

Every time peak oil is predicted, not only does new tech come along to produce more but also make it more affordable AND more is discovered.

Rare earth mining for EV manufacturing WILL require allowing a major increase in open pit mining in every nation possible, something Deep Greens don’t want. Rare earth processing would also need to happen within EVERY country where rare earth mining happens or you wind up with a supply chain choke evident today given greater than 80% of RE ore processing happens in China.

Further, green steel is weak/brittle steel and green silicon produces far more toxics so Coal Mining will still needed to build low density weather dependent energy sources

Derg
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 4, 2022 6:38 pm

Maybe they need government subsidies like wind and solar operators 😉

Welcome back word salad Bob…we missed you.

bigoilbob
Reply to  Derg
October 5, 2022 6:16 am

Or Ben Dover regulators? Or an implicit guarantee that they can shirk 11-12 $ figures worth of freely assumed asset retirement obligations? Or Dog In The Mangering current leases that are so goat pasturey that the can’t economically drill them, and then aksing for more? Or (Mr. Middleton) when they are losing $ operationally because of poor management, they try and turn themselves into “farm the gubmint'” CCS companies, paid with borrow and spend $?

You mean those subsidies?

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 5, 2022 11:41 am

Nice rant, blob.

Carlo, Monte
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 5, 2022 11:36 am

TDS-blob chimes in with a typical word salad.

Bryan A
Reply to  bigoilbob
October 5, 2022 1:20 pm

And so, do everything possible to drive up the cost of the commodity and make the more costly plays profitable. Companies won’t drill for oil that costs $75bbl to extract if Crude prices are at $50bbl. But increase the cost to $120bbl and suddenly the plays that cost $100bbl start looking interesting

bigoilbob
Reply to  Bryan A
October 5, 2022 1:29 pm

Not to Scott Sheffield, the CEO of Pioneer. He specifically said that his 2022 CAPEX would remain the same, even at $200 oil. And it makes sense. Oilfield service rates- frac hands, frac pumps, rolling stock, materials, etc. have been too low to sustain the sector for over 10 years, and they would just track the increased product price. So the play that has F&D and operating costs of $100/bbl would merely end up with those costs increased to eat up the profits.

SS is the best Permian shale commercializer out there. As an adult lifelong oilfield trasher, I understand his business thinking. But if you don’t, I’ll make the appeal to his credentialed authority..

John Bell
October 4, 2022 2:36 pm

Dang…over 3 miles of sediments, it boggles my mind, of course it took a long time. Geology is fascinating!

John Hultquist
Reply to  John Bell
October 4, 2022 8:31 pm

Did you calculated “3 miles” from the 17,808 feet seem on the schematic cross-section of the Permian Basin? Years ago, a rough estimate for depth of sediments in the Gulf of Mexico was 50,000 feet. I suspect there to have been more recent measurements.
Such depths have implications for compaction in the Lower Delta.

John Garrett
October 4, 2022 2:42 pm

I’m old enough to remember the early ’80s when George Mitchell (1919-2013) was active in drilling vertical wells in the Barnett Shale. The wells always produced BUT production rapidly declined because it’s shale (d’oh) and no matter how much fracking Mitchell Energy did it really wasn’t economic— Mitchell was basically recycling dollars with little-to-no profit.

Back in those days, people wouldn’t touch shales with a ten-foot pole. They were driving people nuts because everybody knew the hydrocarbons were there. It wasn’t a question of finding the stuff, the problem was producing it.

Sprayberry? Fuggedaboutit. “It’ll drive you to bankruptcy and an early grave.”

I remember the first horizontal wells ARCO drilled up on the North Slope back in the late ’90s. I was both amazed and excited by the technique. It was such an obvious “game changer.”

As drilling technology has continuously advanced, the result is readily apparent.

It still boggles my mind that the drillers are now capable of such incredible lengthy lateral extensions.

George Mitchell was (eventually) vindicated but the story is an example of how pioneers can be too early for their own good.

“A pioneer is a guy on a wagon with arrows in his back.”

RicDre
Reply to  John Garrett
October 4, 2022 3:53 pm

Whenever I see an article on the modern methods used to get oil from shale, I always think of the character Ellis Wyatt in Atlas Shrugged (written in 1957):

“The Buena Esperanza pass. Five miles from here. Everybody’s wondering what I’m doing with it. Oil Shale. How many years ago was it that they gave up trying to get oil from shale, because it was too expensive? Well wait until you see the process I’ve developed. It will be the cheapest oil ever to splash in their faces, and an unlimited supply of it, an untapped supply that will make the biggest oil pool look like a mud puddle.”

Once again, Ayn Rand was ahead of her time.

Ron Long
October 4, 2022 2:48 pm

The price of Black Gold is going up faster than that Yellow stuff. I’m thinking about crossing over to the Dark Side. Don’t wait for it.

John Bell
October 4, 2022 2:49 pm

OT a bit but interesting article from SKEPTIC magazine (Brian Dunning) about e-cars. I used to read SKEPTIC but like so many mags it went leftist to show tribal identity, so they are really pseudo skeptics, in my view. Electric Cars and the Power Grid (skeptoid.com)

Pat Frank
Reply to  John Bell
October 5, 2022 9:40 pm

John, Michael Shermer at Skeptic has accepted a summary essay of my recent paper showing that female academics do not face a culture of systemic sexual harassment, and falsifying the entire sociological approach to the study of sexual harassment. It will be out in a future issue.

So, Skeptic is not gone entirely.

On the other hand, Michael wouldn’t accept anything further from me contesting the global warming consensus.

Gunga Din
October 4, 2022 5:17 pm

Mr. Layman here.
Do any of the laterals operate like infiltration galleries?
I’d guess no but has it been tried?

Gunga Din
Reply to  David Middleton
October 4, 2022 6:21 pm

Thanks.
I’m guessing it was tried but didn’t recharge fast enough.

otsar
October 4, 2022 5:53 pm

I am waiting or the muddy J to be exploited like the Permian basin.

Gunny HiWay
October 4, 2022 7:24 pm

Oil is Abiotic.
It is a natural fluid of the earth and is virtually everywhere.
There is no oil shortage, let alone “peak oil”.

Gunny HiWay
Reply to  David Middleton
October 4, 2022 8:39 pm

My own experience is evidence enough for me.
I worked on the pipeline in Alaska in the 70’s and many surrounding wells.
We would drain them, move 3 miles away, pump that well, do it again another 5 miles away, then return to the original well that was re-filled less than a year later and start it over again. We did this for years and those wells are still producing today.
We have teeter totter wells in Texas, California, Louisiana, and Oklahoma that have been slowly pumping 200 gallons/week for 125 years and still going strong.
Oil is ABIOTIC regardless of what any “org” site has to say.
Just my experience..
Your actual experience may vary.
Be well.
Gunny

Last edited 1 month ago by Gunny HiWay
Gunny HiWay
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 9:47 am

Thank you sir.
I am not a petrochemical expert.
I have always felt that oil, like diamonds, is not as “rare’ as the PTB would like us to believe.
Best to you and yours,
Gunny

Gunny HiWay
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 11:01 am

Exactly sir.
“Rare” and economically feasible are two different things indeed.
Have a good day!
Gunny

Gunny HiWay
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 11:04 am

You are a gentleman.
Be well,
Gunny
USMC E-7 Ret.
1978-2003
Korea DMZ, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, Lebanon, Somalia
Brought every young man who served with me home alive and in one piece.

Gunny HiWay
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 12:26 pm

Sorry for your loss sir.
My oldest brother was Marine Recon from Pendleton.
He was killed with 6 weeks left on his 2nd tour in Nam in 1970.

RIP to all our fallen brothers.

Dave Fair
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 10:06 pm

David, I loved it when the taller, longer-armed guys would grab their pugil sticks by one end to reach farther than us shorter guys. Never lost one of those matches because I knew bayonets were close-in killing tools.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 7:20 am

Fortunately, the Thomas Gold/PBS abiotic oil scam died before debate-has-ended techniques developed to the current monstrosity level of the advocacy-politico industrial complex (Gore, Markey, Obama, Biden).

A Rebuttal of Thomas Gold’s Claims for Abiotic Oil (summary only) – Resilience

Joel O'Bryan
October 4, 2022 10:17 pm

The EPA Climate Zealots are coming after the Texas P-basin producers using methane emissions as their tool under the CAA. The producers are fighting back using an armada of light aircraft (Cessna Skyhawks C-172 mostly) to air sample all across the region.
The tracks the aircraft fly are GPS autopilot loaded.
You should check out ADSB exchange on some random weekday morning (just after sunrise) and click on a few of the light aircraft C-172 tracks out of Midland’s (KMAF) airport.
Pretty impressive the number of flights some mornings.
https://globe.adsbexchange.com/

Its all about having the data to debunk the climate nutters claims.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
October 5, 2022 10:00 am

Here’s a snap shot taken on Wednesday, 5 Oct 2022, 11:52am CDT. This is one aircraft out of about 5 or 6 C-172s that fly around at 500′ AGL most weekday mornings, weather permitting around the Permian Basin production fields doing air sampling for methane.

AmericanPatrol_Permian.jpg
griff
October 5, 2022 2:32 am

I’d be interested, David, on your opinion on whether the geology in the UK is ‘much worse’ for fracking than that of the Permian and other US shale regions…

Certainly, some including if I recall correctly former heads of UK gas and drilling companies seem to think so…

HotScot
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 2:42 am

ONE former head – of Cuadrilla who left over ten years ago. His claims refuted by the current head of Cuadrilla.

Useless and dishonest claims once again from you. Go back to Greenpiss and indulge in your fantasies there.

griff
Reply to  HotScot
October 5, 2022 10:12 am
HotScot
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 3:29 pm

Vs more than one hundred fracking businesses prepared to put their money where their mouth is.

How much money is Nottingham University risking?

Zero, they’re just making money from publishing a non peer reviewed “Story” (Scroll down to the bottom of the page and you will see it described as a “Story”)

Don’t waste our time with your drivel.

Dave Fair
Reply to  griff
October 5, 2022 10:18 pm

Griff, I’m happy to see a study produced by academics and government bureaucrats that provide data to support existing governmental policies.

ATheoK
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 6:35 am

Thanks, David.

I didn’t know that the UK was so heavily faulted. With so many of those faults active, no less.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 7:40 am

As usual, EIA awaits private capital-supplied drilling and production data. Until then, it’s pretty stylized charts and holding pattern statements and definitions.

griff
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 10:10 am

Thanks, David, I shall read that with interest.

Dave Fair
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 10:25 pm

David, could intervening drilling technological advancements since 2013 affect the conclusions of the report? In other words, would current technology allow significantly greater recovery than estimated in 2013?

Jtom
October 5, 2022 6:12 am

Ok, tangentially off-topic, but I had an interesting thought this morning. Since that is so rare I wanted to share it.

There are many who feel that the only way to ensure the existence of Mankind is to populate other worlds. That, of course, means the new worlds must have the basics required for our existence; oxygen, water, appropriate temperature range, reasonable gravity, etc. But what could also hold civilization seriously back from developing would be the lack of fossil fuels.

Even if there were nuclear power plants for energy, there would be major problems if plastics could not be produced economically in mass quantities, or many of the other things synthesized from ff, from lubricants to medicines.

If anyone is into writing sci-fi, a dystopian story of Man trying to establish a civilization on a planet with no oil, gas, or coal could be interesting and challenging.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  Jtom
October 5, 2022 10:53 am

Not really difficult at all. Just need to posit the equivalent of Star Trek style replicators. Not impossible, I suppose, as long as you sufficient energy available.

Jtom
Reply to  Paul Penrose
October 5, 2022 12:02 pm

Energy? No problem. Dilithium crystals.

John Garrett
October 5, 2022 10:48 am

https://www.npr.org/2022/10/05/1126754169/opec-oil-production-cut 
(NPR) Russia and Saudi Arabia agree to massive cuts to oil output. Here’s why it matters

It matters because our idiot President, his MalAdministration and the climate nutjobs have done everything in their power to destroy the hydrocarbon exploration and production industry that keeps 320 million U.S. citizens from freezing to death in the dark.

Last edited 1 month ago by John Garrett
Jtom
Reply to  John Garrett
October 5, 2022 12:09 pm

The trick is to buy insurance. For me it is shares in Pioneer (Oil), Peabody (coal), NOV (gas), Chevron, and Exxon-Mobil. There are other good companies, I just couldn’t afford all of them. If the cost of energy goes up, it is offset by the value of my holdings going up (and bigger dividend payouts). If the cost goes down, my stocks go down, but energy is affordable.

I am not going to be cold in the winter of my life.

Last edited 1 month ago by jtom
John Garrett
Reply to  Jtom
October 5, 2022 2:50 pm

It won’t do any good if the bas*ards expropriate (either explicitly or constructively) your “insurance.”

See Europe.

Jtom
Reply to  John Garrett
October 5, 2022 3:48 pm

Fortunately, we have a Constitution that directly deals with government taking of private property (and a strict Constitutionalist Supreme Court).

roaddog
Reply to  Jtom
October 5, 2022 9:47 pm

And a DOJ to circumvent it.

roaddog
Reply to  Jtom
October 5, 2022 9:47 pm

DVN (shale)

Andy Pattullo
October 5, 2022 1:55 pm

Oil and gas there for the taking in a region of responsible environmental management, close to the markets that need it, and at a price we can afford – so why is the Biden administration trying to stop it’s production and instead, begging the autocratic, immoral Saudi regime for resources produced under dubious environmental controls, at artificially high prices in a market destined to support Putin’s evil aggression in Ukraine and bordering countries? Who exactly are Biden and the Democratic elite working for? Why do they want to see Russia, KSA and other criminal nations move ahead of the US economically and politically? Why don’t American Democrat voters care that their elected leaders are selling them into purgatory?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Andy Pattullo
October 5, 2022 6:06 pm

Good questions.

Greg Bacon
October 5, 2022 2:52 pm
Greg Bacon
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 5:01 pm

Your graph does not address the rapid drop off in fracked well production. High initial production only insures more rapid depletion.

Greg Bacon
Reply to  Greg Bacon
October 5, 2022 5:02 pm

Do you understand the Red Queen effect?

Greg Bacon
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 6:46 pm

No Middleton, you obviously don’t have a clue about the “Red Queen Effect.”
..
Rapid depletion of fracked wells requires more and more drilling to maintain a given level of production. It is the main reason for the high bankruptcy rates of companies engaged in fracking.

Greg Bacon
Reply to  Greg Bacon
October 5, 2022 6:49 pm
Greg Bacon
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 8:11 pm

If you need a more up-to-date link about the “red queen effect” try this one:

https://www.artberman.com/2020/07/28/the-decline-and-fall-of-the-bakken-the-red-queen-collapses/#

Doesn’t matter where you drill, the effect is the same

roaddog
Reply to  Greg Bacon
October 5, 2022 9:57 pm

3,800 shut-in wells and WTI is $88. Good luck with the mono-mania.

Greg Bacon
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 8:12 pm

“More productive wells” just makes the decline rate steeper, not to mention that it costs more to make them “more productive.”
..
Oh, and stop smelling the drill cuttings, has a lot of benzene in them.

Last edited 1 month ago by Greg Bacon
Greg Bacon
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 8:41 pm

https://www.forbes.com/sites/uhenergy/2021/10/14/the-road-to-clean-energy-is-messier-than-we-thought/?sh=477de6a64ffc

It’s not a new phenomenon. Production from shale wells declines much faster than from conventional ones, as the more we drill, the more we must drill just to maintain the same level of output. In the industry, it’s referred to as the “Red Queen effect,” a reference to the character in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking Glass who tells Alice that “it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.”

Greg Bacon
Reply to  Greg Bacon
October 5, 2022 8:45 pm

What is hilarious about you Davie, is that you are “in the industry” and don’t have a clue what the effect is!!!!!!

Dave Fair
Reply to  David Middleton
October 5, 2022 10:36 pm

Move over Malthus, Greg wants to crawl under the covers. He is bringing his Red Queen Effect to play with your Malthusian Trap.

James F. Evans
October 6, 2022 6:38 am

Multiple oil horizons within the same geologic formation has been understood for over a century.

Descriptions of multiple oil horizons in the Marcellus geologic formation go back to the beginning of the 20th century.

As is today, it was known that impermeable layers separate permeable (the layer cake). Porosity is the name of the game.

These layers are separated by time, as in one layer formed after the prior layer.

Often, the geologic evidence suggests the hydrocarbons are forced up through various faults, fractures, and cracks by great solfataric force.

Ancient algae doesn’t cut it.

There are much greater forces at work than ancient algae sludge being squeezed between heavy rocks.

James F. Evans
Reply to  James F. Evans
October 6, 2022 7:07 am

In the Marecellus, there are areas where multiple oil horizons are stacked directly above each other in the formation, roughly in a vertical column over many (20 or more) oil horizons.

In the Permian, I’m not sure if this repeating pattern is as pronounced.

I would be interested in knowing if the Permian has this characteristic.and how pronounced.

Think of it, to produce all the oil in an area can take multiple wells which reach different oil horizons at different depths.

The potential is immense.

James F. Evans
October 6, 2022 7:36 am

“Peak Permian”… Good grief.

Well, eventually it will be played out, but I bet it’s got a long way to go.

You can count for the so-called “peak” advocates to make an appearance at even a whiff of “peak.”

Admittedly,  aficionados amateurs like myself also make an appearance as well.

The hydrocarbon resources turned out to be immense… The Club of Rome report was wrong.

Why was the Club of Rome report so wrong?

Because the authors of the report relied on the ancient algae idea.

Ancient algae… an idea which time, technology, and understanding has past by.

Welcome to a new world of possibility…

Wallace Pratt is quoted as saying: “In 1940, composing the text of my book, ‘Oil in the Earth,’ I recorded my conviction that invariably new oil fields were first discovered ‘in the minds of men.

So, true.

James F. Evans
October 6, 2022 10:20 am

Early oil finds in the Permian Basin seem to have been concentrated in the margin areas between (contacting) the platforms and the basins.

The margin areas are where a subsidence (basin) contacts a (platform) uplifted area.

In the formation process substantial faults, fractures, and cracks develop and would seem to be the most active geologic area of the formation.

Historically, the largest oil finds typically are found above the most active geologic areas.

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