That Sinking Feeling

Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach

Our local media is up to their usual alarmism. From the San Francisco Chronicle (paywalled, so I quote). Emphasis mine.

This part of California has the fastest sea level rise on the West Coast. Here’s what’s at stake

ARCATA, Humboldt County — Anchored by the cities of Eureka and Arcata and known for its redwood forests, cannabis tourism and cool, misty beaches, Humboldt Bay also has an unwelcome distinction: It has the fastest rate of sea level rise on the West Coast.

Tectonic activity is causing the area around the bay roughly 300 miles north of San Francisco to sink, which gives it a rate of sea level rise that is about twice the state average. Compared to 2000, the sea in the area is expected to rise 1 foot [305 mm] by 2030, 2.3 feet [700 mm] by 2050 and 3.1 feet [945 mm] by 2060, according to California Ocean Protection Council.

I saw that prediction for 2060 and I laughed. Three feet in forty years? No way. But the entire prediction turned out even worse than I thought.

Humboldt Bay is on the California coast a couple hundred miles north of where I live. So, what does Humboldt Bay look like? Here’s an overview. The main towns are Eureka in the middle and Arcata in the north.

Figure 1. Aerial view, Humboldt Bay. It’s divided into Arcata Bay in the north and South Bay in … yes, you guessed it.

Note that the outer side of the bay is made up of two spits of land, the North Spit and South Spit. The entrance channel into the bay is between them. The town of Fairhaven is on the North Spit. These are sand spits that were piled up by the endless action of the waves and the storms. Here’s a clear description:


So this is not solid ground as we understand it. It is a shifting pile of sand, alternately built up and eroded away by wind, wave, and current.

But wait, it gets worse. The nice neat entrance you see below hasn’t always been there.

Entrance to Humboldt Bay, showing the North and South Spits, the two jetties, and the channel.

Originally there was a shallow, ever-shifting channel in that general location. It was in a different location after each winter and indeed after each storm. It was hard to find from at sea and harder to navigate. Here’s the history.

SOURCE: Humboldt Baykeeper, fascinating article.

Note that as soon as they put in the south jetty, the North Spit started to erode and change shape. And even now, annual dredging is required to keep the channel open—currents and storms move millions of cubic meters of sand/sediment every year. In addition, there’s the sediment coming from the land, which you can see clearly in the photo above.

I bring all of this up to point out that it is no surprise that the south tip of the North Spit is subsiding. It’s an artificial cut through a skinny strip of sand, and sand and sediment is constantly being removed from around the base..

And to add to that, the whole area is at the intersection of three tectonic plates, so there is unequal subsidence everywhere.

Being somewhat obsessive, I went and got the GPS-determined subsidence rates around the Bay and I mapped them up. As always … surprises, the best part of science.

Dang … didn’t expect that. Near the south end of the North Spit, where the North Spit tide gauge is located, it’s dropping (relatively) fast. Subsidence of 2.33 millimeters per year is about the same magnitude as the global average sea level rise. So the relative rise there is way above the true rise.

But merely four miles (six km) up the North Spit in Samoa, it’s only subsiding at a tenth of that rate, 0.25 mm/yr. Go figure.

South Bay is also subsiding. I suspect this is because it was originally marsh. Since back in the 1890s, it has been extensively diked and drained for agriculture and grazing, and drilled for wells. So subsidence is to be expected.

Moving on, how do the subsidence and the sea level rise average out in the North Spit tide gauge record? Here’s NOAA on the subject.

Note that there is no sign of any increase in the rate of sea level rise at North Spit. It’s been rising steadily at ~ 4.9 mm/year since 1979.

Given all that as prologue, I return to the original COPC claim, viz:

Compared to 2000, the sea in the area is expected to rise 1 foot by 2030, 2.3 feet by 2050 and 3.1 feet by 2060, according to California Ocean Protection Council.

Here’s a graph showing the same historical observations we see in the NOAA figure above (thin black line). In addition, the graph includes several extrapolations to the year 2060—straight line (dotted red), exponential growth (yellow), and the COPC prediction above (blue).

The California Ocean Protection Council (COPC) projection shown in blue is a sick joke. It would require a huge unheard of immediate change in the rate of sea level rise … and then it assumes that the new very rapid rate of rise would remain unchanged for 38 years.

Riight …

Seriously? What huge new source of water are they thinking will suddenly turn on tomorrow and then maintain that tremendous flow rate for the next 38 years?

And there’s a further problem. IF (and it’s a very big if) the rise is to get to 3.1 feet (945 mm), it will do so gradually, in some form similar to the yellow line. But the problem with that is that if the change is slow, by the end it has to change a lot every year. So at the end of that rise shown by the yellow line, the annual increase would be 47 mm per year, well beyond anything believable.

How unusual would this 47 mm/year rate of sea level rise be? We’ve not seen a rise that rapid in 100,000 years. The fastest sea level rise in that time occurred as the miles of ice from the last glaciation were melting into the sea. The peak was in a period called Meltwater Pulse 1A … and during that time, the rate of sea-level rise was 40 mm/year.

Not only that but there’s no miles-thick ice over the Canadian shield to melt anymore. Other than some glaciers it’s all gone. So just where is the water supposed to come from to raise sea levels by 47 mm/year?

And lest you think this is just NGO people saying this, here’s the University view, from the Cal Poly Humboldt Sea Level Rise Institute on the subject:

Sea level in Humboldt Bay is projected to rise as much as three feet by 2060, which could lead to severe social, cultural, economic, and environmental consequences without an effective adaptive response. Other coastal areas in the North Coast region face similar risks.

I gotta say, I am continually astounded at the unquestioned credulity of climate activists. The cycle goes like this.

Some “scientist” makes an outrageous prediction. Then NGOs, and government officials, and the media and other activist scientists, and the media take it as gospel. Soon, it is an unquestioned part of the climate narrative.

The rest of the cycle is that some joker like me comes along to point out that their prediction is garbage, and people attack me for being a “climate denier” and not having a Ph.D. …

And tragically, that’s modern climate “science” in a nutshell.

If there is any message from this, it reinforces what I modestly call Willis’s First Rule of Funding, which states:

Claiming DANGER! increases funding.

Seriously. If there’s no threat, the funding dries up. These Councils and Institutes would be out of a job if they were saying “Well, as best as we can tell there’s been no significant acceleration in the rate of sea level rise.” The Humboldt Bay city officials aren’t going to hire someone to do some deep study of a continuation of past trends.

The same thing is true with the whole climate hype. Climate Alarmism is a giant industry at this point, employing thousands and thousands of people around the planet. And as Upton Sinclair presciently noted,

“It’s difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary

depends on not understanding it.”

In any case, I’d advise the good city folk of Eureka and Arcata to ignore what the California Ocean Protection folks and the Cal Poly folks are saying. Their predictions are simply not possible. And the fact that they haven’t questioned that ridiculous prediction, when I knew it was not possible as soon as I read it, speaks very poorly of their attention to detail.

And my advice in general?

When there’s both uncertainty and big money at play, don’t trust anyone, “expert” or not.

Including me.

It’s why I link to my data sources—so you can check on what I’m saying.

What more can I tell you about Humboldt Bay, and why I’m fond of the place? Well, one winter back around 1970, I spent a week commercial fishing out of there, setting out and running crab pots. The crab fishing boats on the North Coast are much smaller than those you see on “Deadliest Catch“. Many are on the order of 30 feet (9m) or so. As a result, you can only load a small number of pots on them.

So on the opening days of the crab season, it’s a crazy race to get all your pots in the water. Up at 4:30, down to the boat. Cold. Pots already loaded, jump aboard, leave the dock. December dawn, a bleak but stunning vista. Start breaking up blocks of frozen squid for bait. Fingers numb with cold. Motor across the bay and into the channel to the ocean (center left above). The first day it was fairly calm, looked kinda like this view south from the Humboldt entrance south jetty:

Bait pots and dump them overboard, one after another. Then go back for another load. Back and forth all day. Home after dark.

Up again at 4:30. Windy. Most harbors have a “bar” where the outgoing river water drops its load of sediment. The Humboldt Bar is famous because waves can break all the way across the channel, preventing any boats from entering and leaving. Lots of boats have died there, people too.

SOURCE: North Coast Journal That’s a 44-foot Coast Guard Lifeboat that can survive a 360° roll. Don’t want to see that.

But that day the swells were big, but not breaking. Once again, icy fingers from handling frozen squid. Bait pots and dump them. Then go run the pots from yesterday. Take out any crab, rebait the pots, overboard again. Run back in for another load. From there, “lather, rinse, repeat”, as they say.

And since I was only hired for the opening of the season, to help get all the pots into the ocean, once that was done I was free to once again live out another chapter in my lifelong goal …

Retire Early

And Often

Best thing about commercial fishing?

If I gotta have an office, it’s the most awe-inspiring office I know of. Here’s the Humboldt Marina.

Best of this amazing life to you, dear friends. I can only wish that you take more chances, live out more of your dreams, and question all experts.


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October 3, 2022 10:22 am

The rest of the cycle is that some joker like me comes along to point out that their prediction is garbage, and people attack me for being a “climate denier” and not having a Ph.D.

People attack other people because of fear. There is no other reason unless you are a cannibal.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Doonman
October 3, 2022 11:04 am

Irrational fear brought on by the purveyors of hobgoblins. Hobgoblins manufactured out of whole cloth with production facilities in Hollywood, New York and Washington DC and sold to malleable minds of mush in our public schools and Universities of Higher indoctrination.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Doonman
October 4, 2022 8:54 am

People also attack other people for wealth and power or are paid to attack.

October 3, 2022 10:24 am

I loved this, Willis. Your charts are good. Even an old granny like me can understand them, But the photos. The photos, are just great.
Un abrazo

October 3, 2022 10:26 am

This tide gauge shows a trend that’s the sole outlier of all other gauges on the California coast. All of them read between -0.8 mm per year (sea level falling, and coincidentally just 90 miles north of this anomalous one) and +2.55 mm per year, almost all reading less than about +2 mm per year. You would think that would cause someone to go “hmmmm” and wonder why it’s so different, but you would be wrong. It causes alarmists to single it out as the poster child for their agenda because their agenda is far more important than proper context, truth, or reality.

Tide gauge map

Last edited 1 month ago by stinkerp
Reply to  stinkerp
October 3, 2022 8:02 pm

All the <2mm/yr tide guages are all climate deniers and must be cancelled. Shame on those tide guages for spreading the disinformation from the water making contact with the guage, instead of measuring the TrueData™ from the IPCC political summaries.

John Hultquist
October 3, 2022 10:28 am

Thanks Willis.
I’ll send a link to friends that live there.

tom hewitt
October 3, 2022 10:34 am

Ergo, according to COPC, tectonic subsidence is the same as seawater rise.

George V
October 3, 2022 10:38 am

The sea level is rising because the land is sinking and it’s due to CO2 “trapping heat”.

A find display of the logic of the true believers of human-caused climate change.

October 3, 2022 10:39 am

I like your last statement: “…question all experts.”
Words to live and learn by. You must have read some of Feynman’s quotes before.

“Science is the belief in the ignorance of the experts.” — Richard Feynman

Here’s some experts I listen to. They have an unerring sense for BS and treats.

Reply to  Brad-DXT
October 3, 2022 5:08 pm

History of the Royal Society | Royal SocietyThe Royal Society’s motto ‘Nullius in verba’ is taken to mean ‘take nobody’s word for it’. It is an expression of the determination of Fellows to withstand the domination of authority and to verify all statements by an appeal to facts determined by experiment.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  RichardT
October 3, 2022 6:09 pm

Now it means the opposite.

Reply to  RichardT
October 3, 2022 11:20 pm

Once it meant the Truimp of science over religious dogma.

Now it’s climate dogma over any sort of questioning of the science.

Reply to  RichardT
October 6, 2022 11:02 am

A motto they fail to follow the previous several decades.

October 3, 2022 10:42 am

If you don’t agree with them you get the ‘kind and tolerant’ treatment

October 3, 2022 11:05 am

Learn to love Here’s the article without the paywall.

Reply to  MPC
October 3, 2022 12:16 pm

The article constantly refers to “subsidence and erosion”. But of course, it is climate change… These people are nuts.

Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
October 3, 2022 9:22 pm

And how did “double the rate of the rest of the state” (about 4mm/yr instead of 2) turn into 2.5 feet, ~75mm in 10 years?

With climate science activists, it’s always take the “possibly up to” numbers as the expected value instead of the extreme unlikely possibility that they are really.

Reply to  PCman999
October 4, 2022 5:19 am

If one of those faults slip that Willis mentioned, sea level could rise by 40 feet next year. I suppose that would be blamed on ‘Climate Change‘, too.

(I’d put in a winky emoji, except the alarmist have no sense of shame as well as no sense. It would be attributed to ‘Climate Change’.)

Dave Fair
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
October 4, 2022 9:10 am

And their 3.1′ by 2060 requires a 100-year storm to make the rise. See their 1st graphic. How to lie while hiding the assumptions. Gotta love our governments, local, State and Federal.

Last edited 1 month ago by Charlie Skeptic
Reply to  MPC
October 3, 2022 9:17 pm

Awesome tool – thanks a million!

October 3, 2022 11:07 am

Not surprising, the blue line is the advocacy call for more federal money.

Rud Istvan
October 3, 2022 11:08 am

WE, nice post. Beautiful pictures.

One of the fundamentals of the warming alarmists Is that sea level rise is accelerating thanks to increased ice sheet loss and increased thermosteric rise. This belief goes at least back to Hanson in 1990. It is a big problem for them over thirty years later that it hasn’t.
Moerner’s sample of diffGPS vertical land motion corrected tide gauges is about 2.2mm/yr and no acceleration. And that number closes exactly to satellite based estimates of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet loss plus ARGO based estimates of thermosteric rise. Old WUWT Guest post ‘Sea level rise, acceleration, and closure’ has the details.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
October 3, 2022 12:27 pm

Larson et. al. ( studied river deposits and peat bog levels along the central eastern seaboard and concluded that sea level has been rising in that area at a rate of 1 or 2 mm/y for as far back as 6,000 years. I think we are OK.

Last edited 1 month ago by Denis
Steve Case
October 3, 2022 12:05 pm

The California Ocean Protection Council (COPC) projection shown in blue is a sick joke.

All of the “Climate Change” narrative is a sick joke.

Curious George
Reply to  Steve Case
October 3, 2022 5:07 pm

How well are the Council members paid? Do they carry any responsibility? How did they become Council members?

Last edited 1 month ago by Curious George
Dave Fair
Reply to  Curious George
October 4, 2022 9:15 am

Doesn’t matter: An unpaid zealot causes just as much damage as a paid one.

William D. Larson
October 3, 2022 12:13 pm

Mr. Eschenbach–
As with zillions of others, I always like and value your contributions here at WUWT. Today I especially like your final salutation:

“Best of this amazing life to you, dear friends. I can only wish that you take more chances, live out more of your dreams, and question all experts.”

For me, at least, this is greatly inspiring. (!!) Thank you!

Dave Fair
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
October 4, 2022 9:26 am

Thanks, Willis, I’ve felt that way many times. My chest still swells at the memories. Those memories are much more moving than old pictures and home movies.

William D. Larson
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
October 5, 2022 1:43 pm

Mr. Eschenbach–
I know not, of course, what prompted you to suggest “this post” of yours, but I read it and it is wonderful (!). Thank you so. Plus, my younger daughter is a writer who is writing a novel about a park ranger in Glacier National Park, and she wants to find a different way to write about Nature; I’m sending her a link to your “this post”. Again, my thanks. –Bill L.

Robert G.
Reply to  William D. Larson
October 3, 2022 8:58 pm

I thorougly agree with both of Mr. Larson’s statements.
I also found your closing benediction and advice on the conduct of life to particularly resonate with me
Thank you and All My Best

I might also suggest your post on the Moon Wind

October 3, 2022 12:17 pm

Go a little farther north to Crescent City, and the sea level is falling relative to the land, as the land is rising there.

Reply to  Wayne Raymond
October 3, 2022 12:27 pm

Here’s Crescent City data.

Reply to  Wayne Raymond
October 4, 2022 12:16 am

Is Humbolt Bay tide guauge the only one on the Pacific coast that’s just inside the channel to to the ocean ?

October 3, 2022 12:20 pm

Sewells point on Hampton Roads, Virginia (the Norfolk and Newport News area) is also sinking relatively rapidly at about 4mm/yr, believed by some to be due to groundwater pumping.

October 3, 2022 12:22 pm

100,000 years seems like far too long ago for Meltwater pulse 1A, which was supposedly during the latest deglaciation. Anyway, an event like that would not favor a tiny portion of one coast but would likely effect the entire ocean.

4E Douglas
October 3, 2022 12:28 pm

Thanks, Willis enjoyed the article, I spent 20 years on the Southern Oregon coast. Brought fond memories of my late wife and our adventure there.

Christopher Chantrill
October 3, 2022 12:32 pm

Although the US Constitution in Article I forbids the granting of titles of nobility, nothing is said about Honorifics. I think it is time to agree that all recipients of government grants should be awarded the Ancient Honorific of “Cupcake” in recognition of their selfless contribution to human folly.

H. D. Hoese
October 3, 2022 12:38 pm

I remember that place where 101 comes back to the coast, sand seems out of place. Pulling a trailer through there is challenging, impossible along lots of the coastline. Stayed at Redwood State Park, put generator in the middle of a rotten redwood stump encircled with short would be trees, nice and quiet. Corps of Engineers did the same thing at about the same time for Aransas Pass at Port Aransas Texas. More sand, no native rocks, much bigger and warmer. Tried one jetty, required two much longer, still needs dredging, trying to bring in bigger and bigger ships than entrance can easily handle.

Very good point about subsidence variation depending on location. Central Texas coast claims rates higher than sea level, some evidence of subsidence, not enough tide gauges. Some still alive that grew up there in the 20s wonder why sea level doesn’t seem much different. Went up the river at Crescent City to check out the tsunami. Presume Smith River named after Jedediah, met the type at a restaurant up there, sharpened my knife.

Recall a quote from a California commercial fisherman, something like them wanting turn the ocean into a zoo. I know a sharp retired marine biologist that never made it into high school. Spanish last name, real equality merit realized.

Michael in Dublin
October 3, 2022 12:47 pm

“Our local media is up to their usual alarmism.”

Thankfully there are a few sane media voices like those of Julia Hartley-Brewer on Talk TV. This interview of a spokesman for End UK Private Jets is like a match between a chess grandmaster and a beginner. Checkmate in two moves – this is also called Fool’s Mate – I wonder why? 😉


October 3, 2022 1:01 pm

Wait. How can one part of a contiguous coastline have seas rising more than the others, is there an invisible seawall separating it from the rest of the coast?

James B.
Reply to  TEWS_Pilot
October 3, 2022 1:26 pm

The land in that area is sinking, which makes it appear that the sea is rising.

Reply to  James B.
October 3, 2022 1:50 pm

OK, then that apparent sea level rise caused by sinking land should be causing some serious earth quakes or at least noticeable shifting of the topography. Has seismic activity increased in the area?

I read that AMTRAK and one other service between LA and San Diego have been suspended indefinitely due to fault movement and shifting land or something similar, but that is a long way South of this area.

Reply to  TEWS_Pilot
October 3, 2022 1:46 pm

Is the ocean rising quickly or did the land suddenly slump?

William Lindqvist
October 3, 2022 1:05 pm

Notice the alarmists don’t point out that at Crescent City and Port Orford, 85 miles and 165 miles north of Eureka respectively. the “apparent” sea level rises are negative – minus 0.8mm per year at Crescent City and minus 0.14mm overhear at Port Orford. Tectonic movements, both up and down, are alive and well in this region.

Reply to  William Lindqvist
October 4, 2022 12:19 am

Slow earthquakes can effect areas too with ground movement occuring over many months. Don’t need a moderate quake

October 3, 2022 1:08 pm


For what it is worth, this website will allow reading behind paywalls, but let your conscience be your guide. I only use it occasionally, and even then it is only for sites like Fox News that slap up a NAGGING “Become a Premium Member to read this news story” banner before you can even see the headline and a few lines of text to find out what the story is about.

Larry Hamlin
October 3, 2022 1:23 pm

Great article and graphs – as usual. Thanks Willis.

Chris Hanley
October 3, 2022 1:44 pm

The term “sea level rise’ and derivatives are mentioned around twenty times although the article begins with “tectonic activity is causing the area around the bay roughly 300 miles north of San Francisco to sink”.
The incoherent article then manages to weave in a panoply of woke concerns climate change, nuclear waste disposal, indigenous cultural sites and the harmful effects of logging.
If I lived in Eureka and believed that the town will sink three feet in the next forty years I’d move.

Last edited 1 month ago by Chris Hanley
Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 3, 2022 6:27 pm

If I lived in Eureka and believed that the town will sink three feet in the next forty years I’d move.”

If you were sane, you wouldn’t believe it in the first place. However, these people are the ones who think that silencing conservatives and taxing everyone to death will fix the “problem”.

Reply to  Chris Hanley
October 5, 2022 3:49 pm

If you hang around, you’ll move three feet. LOL

alastair gray
October 3, 2022 1:54 pm

Good science there and debunking of “the Science ” nonsense. Also some fine nostalgia. I suppose science has degraded itself over the years, and nostalgia is not what it used to be either

October 3, 2022 1:58 pm

Isn’t there some kind of mandate for California Ocean Protection Council to be truthful? Their edicts have real consequences for real people. Seems to me publishing things so obviously wrong constitutes a crime. All of the people with property near said tide gauge just lost their property value, probably tens or hundreds of million dollars. This isn’t the first time they have done this.
Some eager lawyer should be paying attention. I smell class action all over this.

Reply to  KentN
October 3, 2022 2:21 pm

You mean Facebook and Google putting those “misinformation” tags on this kind of crap?

Reply to  BobM
October 4, 2022 9:20 pm

Facebook and Google aren’t government agencies funded by tax dollars. There are federal and state laws that apply. Lying government agencies causing material harm to the public should be prosecuted.

Reply to  KentN
October 5, 2022 3:51 pm

You’re just going to have to stop equating objective reality with the truth. It seems everyone else has.

Reply to  KentN
October 3, 2022 7:40 pm

Ask Newsome… he’s good at ‘mandates’.

October 3, 2022 2:02 pm

At some point these corrupt public officials need to be held accountable. Willis has easily shown that they are liars and cheats. No one should be allowed to get away with this kind of dishonesty especially at public expense.

Nick in Vancouver
October 3, 2022 3:05 pm

After the “Big One”, the crust around here is expected to drop between 1 and 2 metres in a matter of minutes, now that is sea level rise to get alarmed about, but in the MSM………..

October 3, 2022 5:31 pm

Compared to 2000″

That means 2000 NOT 2020!!!

Reply to  ICU
October 3, 2022 5:38 pm

… or 2022 even.

Reply to  ICU
October 3, 2022 9:38 pm

Thank you for pointing that out – my brain filled in 2020 instead seeing the actual 2000 that was there.

Still their numbers are inflated. 305mm in the 30 yr span of 2000-2030 – 10mm/yr 2.5 times what it really is, and over 900mm over 60 yrs, so 15mm/yr!?!

Really, they are just pulling numbers out of their asses and hiding behind their PhDs and Facebook/Google Climate Disinformation Gestapo when any rational person points out the lie.

Dave Fair
Reply to  PCman999
October 4, 2022 9:52 am

Again, the duplicity is not stating that the 3′ rise by 2060 is caused by a coincident 100-year storm as shown in their 1st graphic. FJB. F Leftists.

Gary Yowell
October 3, 2022 6:22 pm

Please tell us that this article was sent to the media and COPC asking them for a rebuttal. And let us know their response.

Gary Yowell
October 3, 2022 6:23 pm

Great job!!

October 3, 2022 7:44 pm

What is the water temp in that area during ‘crab season’?

Jeff Reppun
October 3, 2022 8:43 pm

Move them all to Neah Bay Washington. Sea level is falling there.

Brian Bellinger
October 3, 2022 9:14 pm

Thank you Willis Eschenbach. I’ve been reading for past 3 years. Also a 24 year local resident. Definitely sharing your insightful observations with local friends. I think I enjoy your posts more than most because you aim to provide PhD observations with non-PhD participants.

Last edited 1 month ago by Willis Eschenbach
Dave Fair
Reply to  Brian Bellinger
October 4, 2022 9:54 am

If, as it seems, it takes a PhD to make simple observations and simple calculations (as does Willis) we are doomed.

October 3, 2022 11:05 pm

I’d love to see some number crunching done on the NASA Sea Level Rise Projection Tool to show just how absurd some of the climate kookery gets.

Sydney, Fort Denison is a pretty good tide gauge to use, since it has a very long run record of sea level and is almost dead flat over the last century.

Now append the various “scenarios” on top of that dead flat, century long baseline and watch pure comedy gold ensue.

Taking the uncertainty range from the top of the SSP5-8.5 Low Confidence Projection versus the bottom of the SSP9-1.9 Projection shows us that according to NASA’s best science we might have sea level rise of 0.23 meters by the year 2150, or it might be 6.83 meters.

Over the last century the average sea level rise has been a dependable 0.75 mm/year, but according to NASA it might jump to 29.6 mm/year by the end of this century. As you pointed out, where is all this extra water coming from?

You could just use a pencil and straight edge to extrapolate out the trend from the last century and yield far more useful information for planning than trying to use NASA’s best estimates. Perhaps COPC can feign ignorance, but what’s NASA’s excuse?

Last edited 1 month ago by KTM
Reply to  KTM
October 3, 2022 11:52 pm

As you pointed out, where is all this extra water coming from?

Well – in the same place as all the heat – at the bottom of the ocean….

Campsie Fellow
October 4, 2022 12:49 am

I don’t know what the article quoted from has to do with climate science, good, bad or indifferent. It says:
Tectonic activity is causing the area around the bay roughly 300 miles north of San Francisco to sink, which gives it a rate of sea level rise that is about twice the state average.
Tectonic activity. Nothing to do with climate.
It also says that the land is sinking. Nothing to do with the sea rising.

Reply to  Campsie Fellow
October 5, 2022 3:57 pm

“…which gives it a rate of sea level rise that is about twice the state average.” is, in your estimation, the article saying nothing about seas rising?

I’m so confused.

October 4, 2022 2:55 am

Willis, this is one of the BEST articles you have ever posted.
I understood every chart and graphic and I think everyone who read your article understands what is happening !!!!!

Don’t know how you do it … but I am in Awwww….

Last edited 1 month ago by
Mickey Reno
October 4, 2022 7:13 am

Thanks for this, Willis. Anyone who tries to make a particular location a proxy for global sea level rise is a charlatan, and their argument must be considered sophistry, unless their argument can show that their sample is properly representative of the whole world.. The eroding coastline of Louisiana, where the Mississippi River’s natural flow is now thwarted by the Army Corps of Engineers in order to keep that river mouth navigable has long been used by sophists, particularly the NOAA bureaucracy, and media outlets like PBS and the BBC to claim catastrophic GLOBAL sea level rise. It’s pathetic.

October 5, 2022 4:06 pm

Media everywhere are filled with climate misinformation. The newspaper here in Cheyenne posts articles from the AP that are equally ridiculous as what you are reading in California. I called them out on it with a “Letter to the Editor” several weeks ago, but of course misinformation such as what I traffic in cannot be printed.

October 7, 2022 2:19 pm

According to my best guess, that spot in Cali is prone to earth quakes and tectonic shifts which probably could see large swats of land sinking a couple of 100 meters within minutes.

Why worry about 3ft?


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