Germany’s Power Supply Will Likely Be Plagued by Supply Gaps Until 2030, Institute Finds

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin 

Energy Institute: supply gaps in the electricity market possible by 2030

By Die kalte Sonne 
(Translated by P. Gosselin)

The study by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) reads differently than the very optimistic forecasts one so often reads in the media.

With the expansion of renewable energies, the weather dependency of electricity generation in Germany is increasing. A new analysis shows that the security of electricity supply in this decade is currently not guaranteed in all extreme weather situations. Decisive factors here include the rising demand for electricity due to progressive electrification, the dismantling of fossil power plant capacities and the relatively slow expansion of renewable energies.

This is the result of a new analysis by the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) on behalf of the Society for the Promotion of the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne. In the publication ‘Analysis of Supply Security up to 2030’, a team from the EWI examines in which (historical) weather situations the power supply is secure at all times and under which circumstances supply gaps could occur in the course of this decade.”

It’s apparent the scientists also do not assume that we have “storage facilities galore” like activists such as Claudia Kemfert often claim. For the study, weather data were taken from a period of 34 years. That is statistically climate.

An analysis of weather data from 1982 to 2016 shows that supply gaps could occur in particular in weather situations with strongly below-average wind availability in northern and central Europe and significantly limited solar radiation in southern Europe. These two weather anomalies occurred in combination, for example, in January 1997 and in December 2007 over an extended period of at least seven days.

For such extreme weather situations for power generation, the EWI team analyzed and quantified the possibility of supply gaps for the years 2025 to 2030 in different scenarios of power system development. In doing so, they examined different paths to coal phase-out, renewable energy expansion, availability of electricity imports and storage capacities, and the degree of electrification between 2025 and 2030.”

Keyword “storage facilities galore”: For natural gas and hydrogen, they also seem to have room for improvement, as reported by Die Welt. According to Müller:

The capacities for storing natural gas and hydrogen are not sufficient, according to the Federal Network Agency. ‘When the immediate crisis is over, Germany should take another close look at whether we actually have the storage facilities everywhere that we would like,’ says the agency’s head, Klaus Müller, in an interview with the Augsburger Allgemeine newspaper.

In the future, hydrogen will be increasingly needed in addition to natural gas. According to Müller, the development of a hydrogen network must begin now. The Federal Network Agency, the government and many municipal utilities and energy suppliers are already planning this. Germany has a widely ramified gas network that can be used in principle, he said. ‘But it can’t simply be converted one-to-one. Natural gas out and hydrogen in, that doesn’t work without any further ado.’”

====================================

Note from NTZ: The way things are going now, the grid probably will crash very soon, and so the government will have to come out of its green energy wet dream sooner than later. And even if the country managed to convert over to a green energies/hydrogen supply, it likely would be costly and extremely uncompetitive. This too would lead to a forced wake up from the green energies wet dream.

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H B
October 1, 2022 10:18 pm

And where does the hydrogen come from ???? Dumb tards

Disputin
Reply to  H B
October 2, 2022 4:47 am

Oh, water of course. Ignore all boring facts!

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Disputin
October 2, 2022 5:54 am

It is after all Wasserstoff!

Scissor
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 6:04 am

Nord stream pipelines ought to be nearly full of wasser by now.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Scissor
October 2, 2022 6:42 am

I doubt it. First thing is to equalise pressures with the seabed water at depth, about 7 bar. Until then it’s all about gas flowing out from 100 bar. Then, all it takes is a sump that acts as a piston pressurising gas upstream in the pipeline to act as a plug.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 8:25 am

Thank goodness the ‘Russians’ had the foresight to breach the lines at their lowest points! (/sarc)

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
October 2, 2022 10:26 am

Actually the smart thing was doing it close to the German end, leaving most of the length protectable by sending a pig down the line if necessary. Aside from being close to the new Norway-Poland line just to point out how vulnerable that is.

Richard Page
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 12:29 pm

I believe it was breached in Swedish waters? The Swedish police seem to be investigating the 2 incidents in their jurisdiction whilst the Danes are investigating the one incident that occurred in their jurisdiction. For one reason or another, these incidents did not occur in German waters or German jurisdictions. Not sure if this helps but still….

willem post
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 5:39 pm

The US, etc., has robots that can travel inside the pipes to assess the damage.

Repair them to be as good as new will not be so easy.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  willem post
October 2, 2022 6:30 pm

Affected sections will simply be replaced, assuming that there is some future agreement to do that. The Russians suspect there will be.

See post below.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
October 2, 2022 11:18 am

The fact they could simply turn off the gas to stop supplying it opens possibilities for other actors. There was concern with German citizens and industries pressuring gov to turn on the gas. That would be one way to take that off the table.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Gary Pearse
October 2, 2022 12:38 pm

It seems the Russians are doubling down by cutting supply on the one remaining pipeline route to Germany not already shut.

OTOH…

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Sunday that it was technically possible to restore the ruptured offshore infrastructure of the Nord Stream gas pipelines, TASS news agency reported.

A total of four leaks were discovered last week on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea near Denmark and Sweden, with a significant fall in gas pressure leading to the detection of the ruptures.

“There have never been such incidents. Of course, there are technical possibilities to restore the infrastructure, it takes time and appropriate funds. I am sure that appropriate possibilities will be found,” Novak said.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
October 2, 2022 12:50 pm

Many a true word spoken in jest. It turns out that the leaks are at the bottom of a local basin, and the pipeline rises from there to cross an underwater col as it passes Kalmar before dipping again past Gotland.

comment image

Last edited 2 months ago by It doesnot add up
ATheoK
Reply to  Scissor
October 2, 2022 10:38 am

Is ‘wasser’, sea water?
Because that is what Nord Stream 2 pipeline is full of after the sabotage.

Nick Graves
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 3, 2022 12:25 am

Does nitrogen come from sticks?

Steve Keppel-Jones
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 3, 2022 9:30 am

Maybe instead of Wasserstoff, they would be better off running their internal combustion engine infrastructure on a combination of A-Stoff (liquid oxygen) and M-Stoff (methanol)! Or if they’re feeling really daring, N-Stoff (chlorine trifluoride) or X-Stoff (tetranitromethane)!

ATheoK
Reply to  H B
October 2, 2022 10:35 am

And where does the hydrogen come from”

Generated from all of the excess electricity they admit they do not nor will have.

Streetcred
October 1, 2022 10:21 pm

Decisive factors here include the rising demand for electricity due to progressive electrification, the dismantling of fossil power plant capacities and the relatively slow expansion of renewable energies.

I wouldn’t term the Energiewende a slow expansion of renewable energies.

Dennis G. Sandberg
October 1, 2022 10:33 pm

The author reports, “two weather anomalies occurred in combination, for example, in January 1997 and in December 2007 over an extended period of at least seven days.

2020 Grid Energy Storage Technology Cost and Performance …
https://www.pnnl.gov › default › files › media › file
 
PDF
by K Mongird · 2020 · Cited by 94 — decade, have projected 2020 costs for fully installed 100 MW, 10-hour battery systems of: lithium-ion LFP ($356/kWh)

$356,000/mWh x168 hours=$59.8 million, a typical conventional 1,000 MW generating station =$59,800,000,000, $60 billion for a week of storage.

Never happen give it up. N2N, Natural Gas to Nuclear with small scale modular leading the way: Factory assembled, cookie cutter identical, semi-trailer delivered, < 2 year construction phase, walk away safe and affordable (see NuScale website).

Drake
Reply to  Dennis G. Sandberg
October 2, 2022 9:53 am

Yep, in the US, NuScale.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Dennis G. Sandberg
October 2, 2022 11:49 am

Why does it have to be Li-batteries with cost and reliability issues to support renewables already having cost and reliability issues? Lead is abundant, cheaper and more reliable. For stationary storage, lead is not a problem. If we’re to replace ICE vehicles we would have the lead ready to go. One could even replate the lead plates at end of life for maintenance instead of recycling and re-installing new ones.

Mind you, none of this is going to happen anyway. Once EU/UK makes all their nightmares go away with fossil fuels and nuclear, they won’t venture away from their safety net again no matter what they lie about the future. This mad hatter CO2 feint is dead as a dodo, one election at a time.

willem post
Reply to  Dennis G. Sandberg
October 2, 2022 5:46 pm

Since 2020, prices have increased 30%

Here is some battery info

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging

Here is some wind/solar lull info

GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-systems-in-new-england

StephenP
Reply to  willem post
October 5, 2022 6:20 am

Meanwhile in the UK the BBC yesterday interviewed an expert on lithium batteries following a fire where an electric bicycle was being recharged, who said that those in electric bicycles and cars should never be charged indoors and should be kept outdoors for an hour after charging has been completed. He also said that smaller batteries shouldn’t be left unsupervised to charge overnight. Oops, I must change my phone recharging time.
And where would I put a battery bank?

Last edited 1 month ago by StephenP
Chris Nisbet
October 1, 2022 10:54 pm

“The flexibilization of electricity demand is therefore of significant importance for the security of supply with electricity”

Is that another way of saying rationing?

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Chris Nisbet
October 2, 2022 8:31 am

Yes, and no doubt the smart meters of tomorrow will be able to reference our social acceptability scores in order to determine who gets curtailed.

Drake
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
October 2, 2022 10:02 am

The smart meters can already shut off your power, it is only software that will determine whose get shut off.

I think, first: The homes and offices of any politician who has voted for “GREEN”.
2nd Those of anyone who has donated to anyone who has voted for “GREEN”
3rd The factories and other facilities of any corporation that has supported “GREEN”, including donations and ANY advertisement propping up the “GREEN” agenda. THIS would be almost 100% of corporations.
4th Communities that overwhelmingly voted for political parties that voted for “GREEN”, disconnecting each in succession as their % of “GREEN” votes decline.

michael hart
October 1, 2022 11:01 pm

I honestly don’t expect we’ll see a real grid crash anytime soon. The engineers still have some day-to-day say over and above politicians and green activists. More likely just rolling blackouts and brownouts.

Of course, if they think they can fix this with more unreliables then the prospect of a grid crash does increase. I think they’ve sort of figured out that current levels of unreliables is pushing the traditional generators close to the edge of how they can support regular grid operation without frequent nasty events.

RickWill
Reply to  michael hart
October 1, 2022 11:36 pm

I honestly don’t expect we’ll see a real grid crash anytime soon.

I consider there is better than 50% chance of a grid collapse in Europe this year.

German’s have been buying electric heaters in case the gas runs out. Gas fired power stations are usually operated as synchronous condensers to provide short duration inertia. So higher demand and greater instability.

I bet Putin knows exactly where the vulnerabilities exist in the EU power grid. Not that that is essential to failure. There are many other potential causes of instability in a grid dominated by wind power. A frontal weather system coming across can cause a surge then a complete collapse in generation as the wind turbines go into protection mode. That is the Texas and South Australian blackout scenario.

Each EU state will be out to protect themselves in the event of a looming blackout. They will want to isolate any state that is heading for impending blackout rather than risking their own network. The fastest rats will want to abandon the sinking ship.

Rich Davis
Reply to  RickWill
October 2, 2022 4:21 am

I bet Putin knows exactly where the vulnerabilities exist in the EU power grid.

Now you’ve gone and given griff his excuse for when Germany goes dark. All-purpose bogeyman Putin’s saboteurs.

Disputin
Reply to  Rich Davis
October 2, 2022 4:50 am

Lay off Putin – he’s a sick man.

Richard Page
Reply to  Disputin
October 2, 2022 6:35 am

He’s probably not very well either!

It doesnot add up
Reply to  RickWill
October 2, 2022 5:40 am

I doubt anyone knows what combination of circumstances will create the next widespread blackout in detail. If they did, a plan could be hatched to avoid them.

It is clear that EU energy policy is going to go through a lot of strain. Supposedly individual TSOs take orders from ENTSO-E. However, when it comes to sharing out shortages rather than just taking corrective action to keep the lights on then I think it becomes a case of

Papa may have, and Mama may have,
But God bless the child that’s got his own

huls
Reply to  RickWill
October 3, 2022 5:34 am

I bet Putin knows exactly where the vulnerabilities exist in the EU power grid. 

Absolutely. It is however the USA that is exploiting them. Sales of US LNG to Europe have risen threefold yoy. Very convenient to have the NS1 blown up.
Not he first time the USA did this, they also blew up the Trans-Siberia pipeline in 1982.
There is a UN declaration underway to declare the US a terrorist state. And rightfully so.
However nobody needs to exploit the vulnerabilities of the energy grid with the complete morons in Brussels who keep shooting themselves in the foot and doing everything that is detremental to the interest of EU citizens.

Each EU state will be out to protect themselves in the event of a looming blackout

Not possible given the architecture of the grid. This is not ;limited to the EU btw, this goes for the whole of Europe.
Not possible given the total absence of any type of Continuity Controls. Nothing, Nada, Zippety-zip.
Europe is doomed. The US will see to that

Jtom
Reply to  huls
October 3, 2022 6:32 pm

Nonsense. The Biden Administration doesn’t have the competency to conceive, plan, and execute such an undertaking, and they would rather we die than for them to do anything that helps the US oil and gas industry. Biden is doing everything possible to stop lng production and transportation.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  michael hart
October 2, 2022 5:31 am

Grid crashes are usually the result of cascading transmission trips as lines get overloaded. See the 2006 example in Europe.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout

Unusual grid configurations make such collapses more likely, because the N-1 analysis has not previously been done, so when it becomes N-2 unexpected results can occur. The radical changes in supply patterns caused by the outages of French nuclear and switch of Germany from export to import certainly enhance those risks.

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 4:17 pm

Add in the thousands of generation points that renewables add to the grid and you begin to grasp the problem.

It will be in control until it isn’t, it will go Very slow and then very very fast

RickWill
October 1, 2022 11:24 pm

That is statistically climate.

Earth’s orbit does not care what is statistically climate.

Climate change is constant while the Earth continues to revolve around the sun.

The current increase in northern hemisphere extremes is the mildest they will be for thousands of years, possibly more than a hundred thousand years.

NH summers will continue to get warmer and drier. Winters will continue to get wetter with more water falling as snow. The weather in the SH is moderating and will continue that trend; cooler, wetter summers and milder, drier winters.

These changes are locked in and no action on fossil fuel use will alter climate change. Fossil fuels can mitigate the ensuing challenges at least to the point where they can be extracted with an order of magnitude less energy than they can produce.

marty
October 2, 2022 12:02 am

I am convinced that the German power supply will continue to be very reliable in the future. Especially since we can buy cheap nuclear power from our European neighbors at any time!

Ron Long
Reply to  marty
October 2, 2022 3:22 am

marty, do you actually think France, when it gets cold this winter, will sell its energy to Germany and let its citizens freeze? Stay tuned and give us an update in February, 2023.

Bill Toland
Reply to  Ron Long
October 2, 2022 6:18 am

I think Marty was joking.

Richard Page
Reply to  Bill Toland
October 2, 2022 6:38 am

Yeah, I got that and so did others. The sarcasm impaired still don’t seem to be keeping up with the rest of us, however!

Jtom
Reply to  Richard Page
October 3, 2022 6:37 pm

You fail to realize that we have reached parody inversion where reality has become so absurd it cannot be distinguished from parody. You just can’t assume someone is being sarcastic because there are some who actually believe it. Use a sarc tag.

Last edited 1 month ago by jtom
IanE
Reply to  marty
October 2, 2022 3:35 am

Ha ha – I thought for a second that you actually meant that!

Rich Davis
Reply to  marty
October 2, 2022 4:28 am

marty, either your sarcasm is too subtle, or your sincerity is Wahnsinn

Barnes Moore
Reply to  marty
October 2, 2022 5:35 am

I am guessing that you forgot the sarc tag. That being said, do you, or anyone else reading this know the current status of French nuclear? This article is a bit on the anti-nuc side, but still worth reading wrt the status of the nuclear reactors in France. My understanding is that regular maintenance has not been performed as regularly as should have been done to prevent the current situation. Regardless, if half of their reactors are indeed off-line this winter, then that spells even more trouble for the EU as a whole.

https://news.sky.com/story/nearly-half-of-frances-nuclear-reactors-taken-offline-adding-to-electricity-demand-on-european-grid-12600662

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Barnes Moore
October 2, 2022 6:01 am

The French have not been able to effect repairs as fast as they had hoped. The result is that output is now likely to be only 280TWh for the year compared with guidance of 300TWh issued just a month or so ago. That is way down on previous levels – 380 TWh in 2019.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  marty
October 2, 2022 5:43 am

I think some of the votes are because you missed off the /sarc tag.

They really ought to know that previous major exporter France will be a big importer over the winter, as it has been all summer, when demand is rather lower, because of its ongoing major problems with nuclear plant repairs.

Last edited 2 months ago by It doesnot add up
rah
October 2, 2022 12:30 am

The way things are going now, the grid probably will crash very soon, and so the government will have to come out of its green energy wet dream sooner than later. 

Britian already headed that direction and I would suspect that Italy, with its new government, will soon join them. But nothing they can do is going to prevent the unnecessary suffering and death this winter will bring.

Russia, Russia, Russia is the excuse they’re going to use for what is happening and the worse that is to follow and they should not be allowed to get away with that.

I hope that when it is all said and done the EU is a fractured and broken thing that has lost its power to control its member states.

Richard Page
Reply to  rah
October 2, 2022 6:40 am

A broken thing has no value. When the 27 states come to see that then there will be no EU.

Dennis G. Sandberg
Reply to  rah
October 2, 2022 10:37 pm

Yes the EU is a failed experiment; likewise the failed 40-year long wind and solar experiment, especially Germany’s “energiewende”.

John in NZ
October 2, 2022 12:55 am

Of course, this assumes there will still be a country called Germany in 2030.

The way things are going that may not be the case.

Apoxonbothyour houses
Reply to  John in NZ
October 2, 2022 1:13 am

May be a satellite nation of Russia?

Richard Page
Reply to  John in NZ
October 2, 2022 6:44 am

Germany will still be there, mark my words – it’s endured worse than this and the German people are survivors. What form Germany will take after this, what the politics or prevailing attitude will be, well all of those things are open to speculation at the moment.

Editor
October 2, 2022 1:19 am

This all assumes that the rest of Europe has power to spare, which is extremely unlikely if they too continue to phase out dispatchable capacity

Barnes Moore
Reply to  Paul Homewood
October 2, 2022 5:41 am

According to this article, it is possible that half of French nuclear reactors could be off line or producing well below their capacity this winter. Do you have any better info? The article is a bit anti-nuc, so it may be exaggerating the problem to make a point. However, if it is accurate and half the nuclear reactors are off-line or producing at less than full capacity, it exacerbates the issue you mention of shutting down other reliable energy sources. https://news.sky.com/story/nearly-half-of-frances-nuclear-reactors-taken-offline-adding-to-electricity-demand-on-european-grid-12600662

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Barnes Moore
October 2, 2022 6:47 am

You can monitor how the French are doing here

http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/france/

They seem to have lost some nuclear output again in recent days.

Dennis G. Sandberg
Reply to  Paul Homewood
October 2, 2022 10:40 pm

What kind of an assumption would THAT be? They’ve been phasing out dispatchable capacity for decades!

PeterD
October 2, 2022 2:02 am

I’m willing to bet the German Government cannot learn. They are in denial

From experience working for the Australian public service, the responsible Minister and the senior managers are never wrong. Ever. The impact of this on policy is that politics determine policy. That means any person who disagrees will be removed at best. Any science or data that contradict the policy will be dismissed as heretical.
So if the Government policy is that Renewables will give cheap reliable reliable clean energy, and then reality shows that the policy is wrong, the Government will fail to fix the issue because it will not accept reality. The only solution is to remove the Government, and as senior management will strongly resist any change, senior management will have to change.

If, like Australia, the UK and I suspect Germany, the Government Opposition has identical policy to the Government, the economy is in real trouble.

186no
Reply to  PeterD
October 2, 2022 2:33 am

Governments – i.e. a cabal of political inadequates driven by ideology but with no clue about the reality of their collective narrative – in denial when their lack of planning and crap decision making culled from surrounding themselves with “people just like me” falls apart – heaven forfend, surely not..

Last edited 2 months ago by 186no
Barnes Moore
Reply to  PeterD
October 2, 2022 5:45 am

That explanation is spot on for virtually all those who support “green” energy. Not even a total grid collapse that results in a mass casualty event where the cause is undeniably due to over reliance on unreliables will convince them. They will just say that not enough wind turbines, solar panels, and batteries were deployed and will double down. I fear there is no escaping this madness.

It doesnot add up
Reply to  PeterD
October 2, 2022 5:48 am

It has been a wonder to behold Green energy minister Habeck going around getting coal plants back on line, promoting LNG import facilities, and propping Scholz as he tours the world trying to sign up gas supply. He has even conceded keeping a couple of nuclear plants open for this winter that were supposed to shut in December.

Jtom
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 3, 2022 7:02 pm

From what I have read the nuclear plants scheduled for shutdown have been maintained only to last to the shutdown date. To extend that date means shutting down the plant and doing extensive additional maintenance. So no power from them in Jan. or Feb.even if you wanted to keep them open.

Dennis G. Sandberg
Reply to  PeterD
October 2, 2022 10:47 pm

If Germany wasn’t in denial, the same day they agreed to Russian sanctions, they would have done every possible thing to get as many coal and nuclear plants back on line as fast as possible. They did not. They are in real trouble. They are adults. No $billions of aid from nearly bankrupt US (-$32 trillion).

October 2, 2022 3:32 am

This comes as no surprise after years of green policy madness know as Energiewende.

Rich Davis
October 2, 2022 4:09 am

Well I learned a new word: ramified.

I think it must have been verzweigt which is better translated as branched (at least for Murcan speakers, maybe a common word for Brits?)

Richard Page
Reply to  Rich Davis
October 2, 2022 6:49 am

‘Ramifications’ is the more commonly used derivative with us Brits and, I suppose, branching isn’t a bad translation. “The ramifications of the idea were endless” – so, possibilities or ideas branching out from the original idea.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Richard Page
October 2, 2022 7:31 am

Ramifications is also a common word in American English, but not “ramified” as used in the head post. Ramifications has nothing to do with this. The head post, translated from the original German, says “Germany has a highly ramified gas network…”

Original source was:

Deutschland habe ein weitverzweigtes Gasnetz, das grundsätzlich genutzt werden könne.

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article241284327/Bundesnetzagentur-Speicher-zur-Einlagerung-von-Erdgas-und-Wasserstoff-reichen-nicht-aus.html

That should have been translated as “Germany has a highly branched gas network” unless of course “ramified” is a term commonly used in British English.

Last edited 2 months ago by Rich Davis
Richard Page
Reply to  Rich Davis
October 2, 2022 9:00 am

Ah gotcha – no, we’d use diverse or diversified there, I’d guess. ‘Ramified’ is not used as commonly as these other words are – although ramified is still just the past tense of ramify, ramifications just a noun for the action of ramifying. I did just discover that it is from the latin for ‘branch’ though – my new thing for today.

knr
October 2, 2022 4:38 am

If France ever decided to cut off the nuclear power source, a type being band in Germany and super ironically if Poland ever decided to cut of the Coal power source, a type hated in Germany. Then Germany in a cold winter would be one big ice block.
Right nope as bad things are , they only not worse because other countries are in a position to bail Germany out using  the very type of power sources they wish to end . 

It doesnot add up
Reply to  knr
October 2, 2022 5:53 am

Unfortunately for the Germans, low French nuclear output will see France as an importer not exporter, Norway has had a poor snow cover last winter and low snow melt over the summer, while running its hydro reservoirs dangerously low already trying to support power shortages, all countries will be nervous about running too much gas capacity etc. A perfect storm would be 10 days of cold Dunkelflaute.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 6:29 am

Germany has the 6th largest coal reserves in the world. Things could be very different for them if they had the mind to make it so.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Dave Andrews
October 2, 2022 7:09 am

CO2 phobia keeps them from taking the proper actions.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 2, 2022 1:22 pm

As Germany becomes less and less competitive industrially things will give no matter what happens with near-term energy shortages and price hikes. Although the populace will do what their government tells them, the tax creating industries will call the tune.

Dennis G. Sandberg
Reply to  Dave Fair
October 2, 2022 10:52 pm

Industries with negative cash flow don’t pay taxes…for very long.

Jtom
Reply to  Dave Fair
October 3, 2022 6:57 pm

Who will call the tune when all the major industries have collapsed or moved out if the country? This has hit so hard and fast some businesses did not have the time to raise their prices before being hit with energy bill they could not pay.

griff
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 7:22 am

Yes: Germany has committed to keep supplying power to France this winter, given the ongoing shut down of a large number of French nuclear stations.

UK is also exporting to France

pigs_in_space
Reply to  griff
October 2, 2022 12:41 pm

Griff talking complete twaddle as usual from Broke Britain.

Hey mate, you ever been to FRANCE???

I am sitting in my nuclear powered France right now, with a nuclear heated flat and I don’t see the lights going out in any of our region you twat, and not likely in deep winter either!

Even the E-Vs are nuclear powered around here.

Reply to  griff
October 3, 2022 2:30 pm

Griff, good soul,
“Germany has committed to keep supplying power to France this winter, given the ongoing shut down of a large number of French nuclear stations.
UK is also exporting to France”

Do ask yourself whether Germany will supply France with power if its own citizens (taxpayers, voters) are freezing to death.

Ditto UK.
UK is not in the EU any more. As likely to help – if we can – Norway or Ireland I think. FWIW.

IF times get hard (I hope they don’t) UK, certainly, and Germany, overwhelmingly likely, will divert an absolute minimum of power to anyone outwith their respective borders.
A few MW – so each can say “We truly helped France in its hour of need” – but not enough to boil a kettle for each variety of French cheese.

Auto

Last edited 1 month ago by auto
Richard Page
Reply to  ozspeaksup
October 2, 2022 6:55 am

An article that links cellphone outage to a ‘doomsday’ scenario? Well, to some of the younger generations it may be so; if it happens, I’ll be the one laughing at them!

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Richard Page
October 2, 2022 4:37 pm

Not a laughing matter, here in canada we only have a couple national network, on July 8 the Rogers network went down and took with it banking and other services

It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 5:20 am

The first problem in storing hydrogen is that it reduces German storage capacity from 240TWh (about a quarter of annual consumption) to just 80 TWh, and other parameters pro rata, so maximum withdrawal rates are also just a third of those for methane.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 6:39 am

I don’t know if the German infrastructure for gas is different but in the UK the pipelines etc can only carry a 20% hydrogen/80% natural gas mixture. Any higher proportion of hydrogen would require overhauling the whole infrastructure as well as replacing all the boilers and appliances with hydrogen specific ones.There are 24m homes in the UK connected to the gas grid.

https://hydrogen-central.com/hydrogen-heat-homes-uk-wired

Last edited 2 months ago by Dave Andrews
Dave Fair
Reply to  Dave Andrews
October 2, 2022 1:25 pm

Not a problem: The UK government will simply pass a law to make it happen. Nut Zero is a legal requirement so it will happen.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 10:28 am

What material is suitable for hydrogen storage and transport?
I thought the embrittlement problems with hydrogen made storage and transport not economically feasible.

Then tell me where all this hydrogen will come from.

Richard Page
Reply to  Brad-DXT
October 2, 2022 12:34 pm

Historically I believe cow’s intestines were used.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Richard Page
October 2, 2022 11:23 pm

I see the relevance.

th-2683448990.jpg
Richard Page
Reply to  Brad-DXT
October 3, 2022 9:09 am

I hoped someone would!

Dave Fair
Reply to  It doesnot add up
October 2, 2022 1:32 pm

Like L-ion batteries, hydrogen is dangerous to be around. The first apartment complex to burn down from exploding hydrogen or L-ion batteries the whole scheme will go kablooie! [Pun intended.]

Spetzer86
October 2, 2022 5:40 am

I wonder if anyone in the EU will think to talk to NASA regarding how to find, analyze, and address hydrogen leaks?

October 2, 2022 5:51 am

It is very likely that weather over the next 8 years will at some time be worse than over the last 34.

Paul Johnson
October 2, 2022 6:25 am

If the Nordstream pipelines can be taken out, can a few high-tension towers be far behind?

It doesnot add up
Reply to  Paul Johnson
October 2, 2022 6:50 am
griff
October 2, 2022 7:20 am

‘For the study, weather data were taken from a period of 34 years. That is statistically climate.’

I’m glad of that confirmation, since so often Watts readers seem to think that’s weather, when it suits them.

Richard Page
Reply to  griff
October 2, 2022 9:09 am

Actually that was something said by a climate scientist, when getting exasperated about the initial ‘pause’ or ‘hiatus’ he came up with a figure of 30-34 years as a way of stalling questions he couldn’t answer; guessing (wrongly) that the situation would have resolved in that time. Most WUWT readers are well aware that, given the cycle times of the various oscillations interacting with each other and the differences between cool and warm phases, 34 years of data is simply not enough – 60-70 years of data and we might, just might be starting to see something significant.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Richard Page
October 2, 2022 1:42 pm

Agreed, Richard; 60-70 years pretty much covers the major weather cycles. I like 100 years or longer, though. The “30 years is climate” meme came from government bureaucrats paid to not recognize documented longer cycles.

Reply to  Dave Fair
October 3, 2022 2:35 pm

Perhaps we need a good couple of cycles, of each of the significant weather and oceanic cycles.
Perhaps 2x 70 years, or so.

Auto

MarkW
Reply to  griff
October 2, 2022 9:27 am

As usual, the socialists assign to others their own sins.
Aren’t you the guy who constantly declares every weather system is proof of global warming?

CD in Wisconsin
Reply to  griff
October 2, 2022 9:52 am

Griffy-poo,

Quote:
“I’m glad of that confirmation, since so often Watts readers seem to think that’s weather, when it suits them.”

**********

Please provide evidence where someone here at WUWT said that a timespan of 34 years (or more) was weather rather than climate. I’ll wait.

If you are so full of hate for this website Griff, you don’t have to keep coming here. Your hate and contempt are not substitutes for sound science at this website.

Dave Fair
Reply to  CD in Wisconsin
October 2, 2022 1:45 pm

No, CD, everybody needs a foil. Its too bad Griff is so puerile and predictable such that his inane postings are easy to counter.

Dave Fair
Reply to  griff
October 2, 2022 1:37 pm

Griff, since weather patterns haven’t changed in over 100 years, who cares what some bureaucrat calls “statistically climate?”

Doonman
October 2, 2022 8:00 am

Don’t worry, Germany can get all the fossil fuel it needs to keep its power supply running from North Africa. They just need better planning than was done in the 1940’s…

MarkW
Reply to  Doonman
October 2, 2022 9:29 am

That was Italy that was trying to take over N. Africa. Hitler sent Rommel in to try and save Mussolini’s butt.

Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
October 2, 2022 12:39 pm

Rommel saw something Hitler did not – control of Africa gave a base to strike towards the Middle East oilfields, as an alternative to the Russian oilfields.

n.n
October 2, 2022 9:56 am

Intermittent, unreliable, renewable energy.

Gary Pearse
October 2, 2022 9:59 am

Hydrogen isnt just more expensive than natural gas. It forms hydrides with metals, including steel pipe.

“It is also possible to achieve volumetric storage densities greater than liquid hydrogen because the hydrogen molecule is dissociated into atomic hydrogen within the metal hydride lattice structure.”

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/hydrogen-storage-basics-0

In other words, when the pipe is filled a large quantity would be absorbed into the pipe steel! This greatly reduces the strength and ductility of the steel leading to cracking. So please! No more talk about using existing pipelines. You would be better to consider actually using a powdered light metal as a hydrogen storage medium. Still, there are problems even with this.

ResourceGuy
October 2, 2022 1:17 pm

They just need more forced labor camps in western China and coal plants powering the polysilicon production there.

Bob
October 2, 2022 1:29 pm

More realistic than most reports but they haven’t asked the important question. Should we be doing this at all? I will help them out, stop the mindless spending on wind, solar and battery storage and use those resources on improved coal, gas and nuclear generation. Problem solved, you have spent less money, built a reliable network and it is all dispatchable. Consumers will have power when they want it at an affordable price and the environment will be cleaner.

Reply to  Bob
October 2, 2022 4:58 pm

Bob:
Yes!
And society will have the energy resources to deal with whatever the climate has in store for us.
Making civilization reliant on weather-dependent energy is madness; and immoral.

Bob
Reply to  B Zipperer
October 2, 2022 5:46 pm

Yep, what you said.

Pat from kerbob
October 2, 2022 4:27 pm

To reiterate
Germany is about half the land area of Alberta canada where I live, call it the southern half where we have much better wind resource.
Germany has 2x average load of installed renewables/wind, spread across all that territory. This generated only 40% of electricity used in 2021.
Alberta has 1.4x average load of installed reliable generation, this keeps the lights on. An extra 3GW of renewables provides show.

It does not matter if the Germans double the installed base to 4x when the wind doesn’t blow, it doesn’t blow, and in such a small area it can be calm everywhere, usually in a winter high pressure.
The 2021 Texas event hit us first, 9 days straight well below -30C with effective zero from our 3GW of installed wind.

All talk of a renewable grid is meaningless without the magic batteries, a magnitude better performance at a magnitude lower cost.

willem post
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
October 2, 2022 5:41 pm

Here is some info on Batteries

BATTERY SYSTEM CAPITAL COSTS, OPERATING COSTS, ENERGY LOSSES, AND AGING
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/battery-system-capital-costs-losses-and-aging

willem post
October 2, 2022 5:35 pm

To rely on the weather to provide electricity is full of pitfalls, as Europe, California and Texas, etc., have found out.

In 2022, there was plenty of hot weather and sunshine, but little wind and rainfall in Europe

As a result, there was much solar electricity, but little wind electricity, and curtailed hydro electricity

Nuclear electricity was also reduced, because those plants need adequate cooling water to function.

Some RE folks say, oh, let’s use batteries!

This article explains the pitfalls.

GRID-SCALE BATTERY SYSTEMS IN NEW ENGLAND TO COUNTERACT SHORTFALL OF ONE-DAY WIND/SOLAR LULL
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/grid-scale-battery-systems-in-new-england

Eric Vieira
October 3, 2022 12:37 am

Storage of hydrogen in vast quantities: just forget it ! At best in-situ production, but then there’s no advantage over natural gas. And there’s no climate problem anyway ….

It doesnot add up
October 5, 2022 8:01 am

I read in Die Welt that Germans are being advised to get ready for power cuts that might last longer than 72 hours, with no help avaliable from the state.

In the same paper was a lengthy article discussing fears that gas held in storage might end up being exported elsewhere in the EU – or even outside it, as the government has no means to ascertain its ownership or direct its use under EU rules. Last winter Germans were caught out because Gazprom owned significant chunks of the gas in storage and refused to release it.

Skinmansd
October 6, 2022 11:18 am

Frack Germany first

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