Colder, Wetter Than Normal September Pushes German Gas Consumption +14.5%, Winter Gas Outage Looms!

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

Sudden mid September cold snap forces Germans to turn on the heat early…consume 14.5% more gas than previous years…”wettest September since 2001″…gas shortage in winter “difficult to avoid”

Germany’s heating season gets an early start as cold snap hits. (Symbol photo by P. Gosselin) 

With Russia’s gas supply to Europe having practically come to a standstill, German authorities have begun pleading for its citizens to drastically cut back on their natural gas consumption immediately. “With a little luck, we’ll make through the winter,” said Economics Minister Robert Habeck, as Germany’s energy crisis deepens to alarming dimensions.

Habeck then expressed hopes for a mild winter. But unfortunately climate warming hasn’t cooperated over the past two weeks, failing to show up in September this year. With temperatures diving steeply last week, Germany’s mean September temperature is ending up almost half a degree cooler than normal, according the preliminary results from the DWD German national weather service.

“The mean temperature in September 2022 was 13.4 degrees Celsius (°C),” reported the DWD. Compared to the current reference period 1991 to 2020, the negative deviation was 0.4°C.

Early heating season

The bad news is that the recent cold has caused gas consumption to surge 14.5% higher compared to the previous years. According to the country’s Federal Network Agency: “While some residential and commercial gas consumption was well below average consumption levels in previous years through mid-September, last week’s 483 GWh/week was well above the 2018-2021 average (422 GWh/week; +14.5 percent).”

Communist-style shortages 

“Savings will have to take place even if temperatures continue to fall,” explained Federal Network Agency head Klaus Müller. He warned: “Without significant savings in the residential sector as well, it will be difficult to avoid a gas shortage in winter.”

Wettest September since 2001

There has been some good news: drought-stricken Germany got relief as September saw around 100 liters per square meter (l/m²) of precipitation on average – about 155 percent of the 1991 to 2020 reference period (64.5 l/m²).

“As a result, there was finally a marked easing of the situation in the drought-stricken regions,” writes the DWD press release. “It was the wettest September since 2001, with monthly totals of over 200 l/m² in the low mountain ranges and the Alps. At the highest altitudes, the first flakes even fell.”

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John the Econ
September 30, 2022 10:34 am

Fake news. The smart people told me years ago that winters were a thing of the past.

Janice Moore
Reply to  John the Econ
September 30, 2022 10:47 am

Or, at least, “very rare and exciting.” 🤨

From The Independent on 20 March 2000 we got the headline: “Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past”.

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

(Source: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/29/crus-forecast-winter-snowfall-will-become-a-very-rare-and-exciting-event/ )

Last edited 2 months ago by Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
September 30, 2022 12:41 pm

According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become “a very rare and exciting event”.

viner
is no scientist and certainly not a cryosphere expert and
never published anything and
never predictd the end of snowfall.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 30, 2022 12:45 pm

Oh, but, Mr. Mosher, Mr. Mosher, the INDEPENDENT said that Viner is a “Senior research scientist.” So, it must be true.

Krishna Gans
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 30, 2022 1:40 pm
Last edited 2 months ago by Krishna Gans
Editor
Reply to  Krishna Gans
September 30, 2022 1:51 pm

Facts and Mosher have little correlation

Rich Davis
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
September 30, 2022 2:49 pm

You know what is a rare and exciting event? A mosh post with only one spelling error AND punctuation (at least one period). None of those capitalist letterz tho.

HotScot
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
October 1, 2022 2:18 am

is no scientist and certainly not a cryosphere expert

Neither are you. Go and sit in the corner.

LdB
Reply to  Steven M Mosher
October 1, 2022 8:40 am

What he doesn’t have an English Lit degree?

Dropkicks who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones 🙂

ATheoK
Reply to  Janice Moore
September 30, 2022 6:11 pm

become “a very rare and exciting event”

It was in 2021-2022, for people in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Israel and other warm winter places.

John Bell
Reply to  John the Econ
September 30, 2022 10:49 am

Children won’t know what energy is.
There is a guy carving a bear in to a tree in my back yard now, he fled Romania in 1989, and I used to date a woman who did the same thing.

Janice Moore
Reply to  John Bell
September 30, 2022 10:57 am

((wince)) I sure hope that bear is dead. 😮 (I know, I know, you didn’t meant that……. did you??! …. Naaa)

Around here (and, below, in Montana), they do the opposite — carve a tree into a bear. 😉
comment image

John the Econ
Reply to  John Bell
September 30, 2022 11:16 am

Unfortunately, some people will never believe what a bad idea socialism is until they’re made to actually live it.

ATheoK
Reply to  John the Econ
September 30, 2022 6:21 pm

Unfortunately, some people will never believe what a bad idea socialism is until they’re made to actually live it.”

Unfortunately, most people here believe they will be one of ‘the’ elites in power, not one of the serfs.

Mr.
Reply to  John Bell
September 30, 2022 11:32 am

Carved bears or fled Romania, or both? 🤔

Erast Van Doren
Reply to  Mr.
September 30, 2022 11:41 am

I think the carved bear fled Romania to not being turned into energy ))

DonM
Reply to  Mr.
September 30, 2022 12:12 pm

she was a talented woman, and even tho she is from Romania, don’t confuse her with the Janice photo post.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  John Bell
September 30, 2022 1:00 pm

She carved a bear into a tree in your back yard?

H.R.
Reply to  Sturmudgeon
September 30, 2022 11:05 pm

Ouch! That sounds painful.

YallaYPoora Kid
Reply to  Sturmudgeon
October 1, 2022 2:09 am

No she calved in the bare in the back yard

tgasloli
September 30, 2022 11:01 am

I guess they should have thought about this before they colluded to sabotage the gas pipelines.

Jtom
Reply to  tgasloli
September 30, 2022 4:40 pm

I am sure the antecedent to your pronoun ‘they’ must be “Russia”. I never assume someone is wrong if there is a shred of doubt.

H.R.
Reply to  Jtom
September 30, 2022 11:10 pm

I think ‘they’ are the only ones who know who ‘they’ are at this point. Everyone else is trying to figure out just which ‘they’ it wuz wot dunnit.

Mr.
September 30, 2022 11:02 am

Mankind reached a state of standoff with weather calamities about 45 – 50 years ago.

Now, through loony governments’ policies, some countries are back to placing their citizens at the mercy of the vagaries of inclement weather.

“Stupid is as stupid does”.

Bob
September 30, 2022 11:11 am

“Savings will have to take place even if temperatures continue to fall,” explained Federal Network Agency head Klaus Müller. He warned: “Without significant savings in the residential sector as well, it will be difficult to avoid a gas shortage in winter.”

These people drive me nuts. SAVINGS? No you moron, production, fire up every generator you have and start drilling and processing fossil fuels, build nuclear. In other words quit being so stupid.

AWG
Reply to  Bob
September 30, 2022 2:24 pm

Didn’t you read their statements? They are counting on “luck” and “hope” to rescue them from their folly. In the same way that they counted on fear and terror to advance their magical thinking that plentiful, stable energy comes out of the sky free.

Bob
Reply to  AWG
October 2, 2022 10:53 am

It is disgusting.

ih_fan
September 30, 2022 11:16 am

“With a little luck, we’ll make through the winter,” said Economics Minister Robert Habeck

Whatever happened to planning for contingencies?

Thanks to idiot politicians that listen only to rabid environmentalists and ignore reality it seems that entire nations now base energy policy on “a little luck”.

Dumber by the day…

Jim Gorman
Reply to  ih_fan
September 30, 2022 12:53 pm

First thought of mine was, ok, you make it through this winter, how about the next one. What are you doing to prepare if it is even worse?

Pete Bonk
Reply to  ih_fan
September 30, 2022 1:08 pm

Hope (or luck) is not a strategy….

Reply to  Pete Bonk
September 30, 2022 6:51 pm

Unless you’re a PowerBall addict…

HotScot
Reply to  ih_fan
October 1, 2022 2:16 am

It’s difficult to muster any sympathy for Germany as they have plenty of frackable gas they could access, but still refuse to.

Dave Andrews
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2022 6:37 am

They also have the 6th largest coal reserves in the world, behind US, Russia, Australia, China and India.

Graemethecat
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2022 7:03 am

Furthermore, the Germans have been sanctimoniously lecturing the rest of Europe for years about the need to transition to Renewable Energy. Now they’re stuffed. I can’t help feeling a little schadenfreude.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
September 30, 2022 11:16 am

With all that extra rain, have their been massive, unprecedented floods?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
September 30, 2022 11:31 pm

No, Jim, it was just a wet drought in September.

Redge
Reply to  Dave Fair
October 1, 2022 12:47 am

It was a 6% wetter* drought

H/T Griff

Editor
September 30, 2022 11:18 am

Hard to be sympathetic with them who created this self-inflicted stupidity in the first place now they will suffer for being easily mislead and lied too.

Better to think for yourself than to trust the media or the government who badly let you down.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 30, 2022 1:04 pm

Better to think for yourself than to trust the media or the government who badly let you down.” (NOT taught in public schools or universities)

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Sunsettommy
October 1, 2022 6:08 am

They laughed at Trump. Will he now laugh at them?

michael hart
September 30, 2022 11:27 am

I would have thought he would also be praying for a windy winter. It seems he doesn’t expect the unreliables to pull them out of the fire, if you’ll pardon the poor analogy.

Look on the bright side, European furniture importers might have a golden year in 2023 as citizens look to replace all the furniture they might burn as firewood over the winter. Go long on Ikea stock.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  michael hart
September 30, 2022 1:05 pm

Good ones.

Ed Zuiderwijk
September 30, 2022 11:43 am

And still they are going ahead with closing the three remaining nuclear plants.

I’m afraid the Germans will have the winter they deserve.

Rich Davis
Reply to  Ed Zuiderwijk
September 30, 2022 2:54 pm

Schadenfreude, Schadenfreude, SchadenFREUDE!

Redge
Reply to  Rich Davis
October 1, 2022 12:49 am

Schadenfrieren, Schadenfrieren, Schadenfrieren!

Ron Long
September 30, 2022 11:44 am

Pretty soon “Shivering In The Dark” will be a new Olympic sport. Looks like Germany is going to get a head start.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  Ron Long
September 30, 2022 1:06 pm

Are any ‘white guys’ going to compete?

HotScot
September 30, 2022 11:45 am

Said it for years; it’s a pity the only way for sceptics to be proven right is for things to take a bad turn e.g. get colder.

We have been warning of this for years, but would they listen?

I sincerely hope no one dies because of this folly but I guess it’s a better way to have the idiocy hammered home than the whole world declining into a cold period when full preparations have been made for the planet to warm.

BTW there’s a ‘Stop the Oil’ (or whatever) protest organised to disrupt the London marathon this weekend. I mean, how dumb can they be? Most of the folks at the marathon are rabid greens, but they will not like their global event disrupted by a bunch of smelly green slugs thugs.

Nor do I think it was the best move in the world for the world’s most famous Horse, Jacinda Ardern the NZ PM, to come out and demand government’s censor their own people when the populist middle right (and therefore far right fascist MSM talking point) Giorgia Meloni is elected on a manifesto of personal freedom. It’ll be interesting when those two meet, I’m not sure Ms. Meloni is interested in taking prisoners.

MarkW
Reply to  HotScot
September 30, 2022 12:47 pm

All the usual suspects are out there declaring that anything to the right of socialism, is a form of fascism.

AWG
Reply to  MarkW
September 30, 2022 2:28 pm

It is interesting to note that their pea brains can only imagine political systems that involve tyranny. The abstract concept of “freedom” and “liberty” are not in their vocabulary so it is impossible for them to process it.

MarkW
Reply to  AWG
September 30, 2022 5:05 pm

They’ve been taught to believe that the average person is to stupid to run their own lives. That’s why the elite (defined as themselves) have to be in charge.

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
October 1, 2022 2:03 am

That’s ‘too stupid’ ~Ahem~

🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 Sorry Mark, couldn’t resist it.

MarkW
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2022 10:01 am

“Anyone who can only think of one way to spell a word obviously lacks imagination.”Mark Twain

“It is a damn poor mind that can think of only one way to spell a word.”Andrew Jackson

HotScot
Reply to  MarkW
October 2, 2022 9:34 am

I would be lost without my spellchucker……

Dave Fair
Reply to  MarkW
September 30, 2022 11:35 pm

Fascism is socialism.

MarkW
Reply to  Dave Fair
October 1, 2022 4:49 pm

I know that, you know that. We just have to get the socialists to stop lying about it.

Rich Davis
Reply to  HotScot
September 30, 2022 2:56 pm
Dave Andrews
Reply to  HotScot
October 1, 2022 6:43 am

A lot of the people at the London Marathon will be running for charities and won’t take too kindly to Stop Oil disruption – so it could backfire on them quite spectacularly.

Hubert Gans
September 30, 2022 12:00 pm

The larger part of this September here in southern Germany reminds me of the harsh 70-ies, when I was young. People nearby are on their Stihl’s to prepare fire wood, as prices for energy are over the top – with the word blackout around, unheard off decades ago. I really hope for a milde winter, especially for the people in the tows relying on gas.
Thank you Brandon for fulfilling your promise to shut the ns2 down!

RickWill
Reply to  Hubert Gans
September 30, 2022 3:02 pm

Thank you Brandon for fulfilling your promise to shut the ns2 down!

A promise fulfilled! It helps China in their next gas negotiation with Russia.

The autumn sunlight in the northern hemisphere is in long term decline, September dropping 0.5W/m^2 every century but there are oscillations around this long downward trend. European winters will have less sunlight and more snow. This is something that no climate modeller knows.

HotScot
Reply to  Hubert Gans
October 1, 2022 2:11 am

I don’t think it’s Biden that’s doing this. He’s always been as dumb as a box of rocks and jumped on any passing bandwagon throughout his career. He was a racist when that was the current thing, and he’s green now that’s the current thing.

He was picked because he’s too weak and old to resist the deep state, unlike Trump. His background is riddled with corruption but he’s been protected because he’s a useful idiot, literally.

fretslider
September 30, 2022 12:11 pm

A fireplace is a wonderful thing

The law of sod is in operation

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  fretslider
September 30, 2022 1:09 pm

As is a barrel stove.

Dave Fair
Reply to  fretslider
September 30, 2022 11:38 pm

Sod didn’t write Sod’s Law. It was written by a man with the same name.

Frank S.
September 30, 2022 1:35 pm

La Nina predictably gives Europe the “cold shoulder”.

Campsie Fellow
September 30, 2022 1:40 pm

In the 2021 Federal German election, the Green Party won 15 per cent of the votes. The latest opinion poll puts support for the Green Party at 22 percent. How on earth can the popularity of the Green Party have risen by 50 percent in the situation in which Germany currently finds itself?

RickWill
Reply to  Campsie Fellow
September 30, 2022 3:04 pm

How on earth can the popularity of the Green Party have risen by 50 percent

It is called doubling down. There is an urgent need for a lot more wind turbines and solar panels.

AWG
September 30, 2022 2:18 pm

Habeck then expressed hopes for a mild winter. “

That is leadership Right There – counting on “hope” as your Plan A.

Zurab abayev
September 30, 2022 2:49 pm

Stop this Russian propaganda. German gas storages are filled up > than 90%, which is historic high. In 2016 Ukraine went through winter ok with her storages filled up at 43%. Everything will be fine in Europe

Jtom
Reply to  Zurab abayev
September 30, 2022 4:58 pm

Regular gas delivery has been reduced because of Russia. The reserves are meant to augment gas deliveries in winter, not replace them.

“Germany’s gas storage sites are over 91% full, but the country will survive the winter without rationing and shortages only under three conditions, Müller said. First, bringing the projects for LNG imports online, second, gas supply in Germany’s neighbors remaining stable, and third, Germany conserving gas even when it gets colder as winter approaches, he added. 

If the coming winter is colder than usual, Germany could see severe nationwide gas shortages, which it will not be able to predict more than two weeks in advance, Müller said earlier this month.”

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Germany-Must-Cut-Natural-Gas-Consumption-To-Avoid-Winter-Shortages.html

Look at that third condition. Germans must conserve, but they are still consuming more.

RickWill
September 30, 2022 2:49 pm

September sunlight at 50N peaked at 353W/m^2 4,200 years ago. It has been declining since. This is last and next 500 years:
-0.500  342.878997
   -0.400   342.417870
   -0.300   341.952539
   -0.200   341.483449
   -0.100   341.011025
    0.000   340.535683
    0.100   340.056611
    0.200   339.575413
    0.300   339.092623
    0.400   338.608785
    0.500   338.124449
The minimum of 320W/m^2 will occur in 7,300 years from now. So 13W/m^2 down from the peak but 20W/m^2 fall to go to the bottom.

Northern hemisphere autumns have a cooling trend and that will result in more precipitation as the water cools slower than the land. More will fall as snow and it will eventually begin to accumulate.
http://vo.imcce.fr/insola/earth/online/earth/online/index.php

September 30, 2022 4:00 pm

Just when they thought that they would be confronting Global Warming, the Europeans are faced with the unpleasant reality of Global Cooling.

Loren C. Wilson
September 30, 2022 4:53 pm

One liter per square meter is 0.1 cm of rain or 0.04″. So 100 liters per square meter was about 4″ of rain. Very beneficial.

ATheoK
September 30, 2022 6:08 pm

With Russia’s gas supply to Europe having practically come to a standstill”

I thought someone broke the pipeline?

Dena
September 30, 2022 7:43 pm

I foresee snow becoming a valuable commodity. They need to take all that beautiful snow laying on the ground and pile it up against the walls to improve the insulation factor. It’s a common practice in isolate areas where they heat with wood and they have to cut it themselves. Besides that the work of moving all that snow will help keep them warm. Unfortunately they were warned and thought they knew better. Now they need to use something less desirable to stay alive.

2hotel9
October 1, 2022 6:05 am

Good. Stupid people voted for this and they deserve to suffer for those votes. When stupid don’t hurt stupid people continue to do stupid things.

Allen Stoner
October 2, 2022 8:03 am

Imagine how much worse it would have been without global warming!

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