Grid Expert’s Dire Warning: “All of Europe’s Power Supply at Risk” …30% Of Computers Could Be Destroyed

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin on 27. September 2022

German Auf1 site here interviews blackout expert Robert Jungnischke on Europe’s growing threat of a unprecedented wintertime blackout. Experts are almost unanimous that a blackout will occur, the only question that remains is when and how long it will be.

Power grid and blackout expert Robert Jungnischke. Image cropped here

The gas supply bottleneck Europe is intensifying as the weather turns colder earlier than expected. People are preparing by buying electric fan heaters, hoping they’ll be able to keep warm if the gas supply runs out. The problem however, is that these millions of electric fan heaters sold in Europe will end up burdening an already extremely precarious power grid even more.

Already German officials are warning the country “may be facing ‘rolling blackouts’ over the coming winter months” as not only Germany’s but also Europe’s power grid teeter on the brink.

According to Robert Jungnischke, a blackout expert and consultant, many companies and people are poorly prepared, or not prepared at all. So when the blackout arrives, it will be too late to for them. The consequences would be dire. Once a a blackout hits, the total system failure that it causes cannot be fixed so quickly. The damage in terms of economics and lives would be enormous.

Electric chair for computers and electronics

According to Jungnischke, citing power experts, just rebooting the power grid would destroy about 30% of electronic devices such as computers.

The rebooting of an entire power grid after a blackout is a complicated task, as the supply has to match the demand. Both would have to ramp up in unison. Jungnischke explains:

After a blackout, the power gets ramped up, but we have a huge problem. The problem is that there is no load. As I said earlier, power is tied to consumption and the power is regulated accordingly. I have a problem when power needs to be ramped up but there’s not yet any demand. That means the power fluctuates strongly and strongly fluctuating power is death for electronics. That means experts calculate about 30% of computers will be damaged during the ramp up of the power grid.”

He adds that the dependence on solar and wind energy puts not only the German power grid at risk, but also the power supply of all of Europe.

The economic damage resulting from a major blackout would be crippling. Chaos would ensue for weeks or months.

4.8 35 votes
Article Rating
198 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 6:08 am

Sorry but despite all the renewables inflicted damage, this article is just ludicrous scaremongering

Dave Yaussy
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 6:12 am

Why? It is my understanding that restarting a grid after a complete system failure is extremely difficult, which is why places like Texas go to rolling, planned blackouts that can be better managed.

Genuinely interested in why you think grid–wide blackouts wouldn’t be a subject of huge concern.

Josh
Reply to  Dave Yaussy
September 28, 2022 6:24 am

After Y2K, Global warming, covid and various other things I too am very sceptical about an article like this. Perhaps it should have said, ‘There will be blackouts, almost certainly it will be managed, in the tiny off chance it isn’t then this is the worst case scenario which the engineers will try to, and most likely successfully, avoid’? And also, ‘By the way, aren’t we thankful for the engineers who so often manage to make the system work without us knowing how bad it might have been, even though the politicians have completely failed us.’

Dave Yaussy
Reply to  Josh
September 28, 2022 8:01 am

Thanks. That helps.

Mason
Reply to  Josh
September 28, 2022 8:01 am

Thank you!

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Josh
September 28, 2022 1:43 pm

You could check the North East Blackouts of 1965 and 2003. Italian Blackout of 2003, the Utah blackout of 1981.
All had durations of many hours.
The European grids are all interconnected, for example at the moment the UK is exporting 1.57GW to France, 0.47GW to Holland, 1.06GW to Norway, 0.69GW to Belgium, 0.01GW to Northern Ireland but importing 0.09GW from the Irish Republic. This is roughly the same as the UK’s nuclear output.
I don’t think that there’s been a case when a grid blackout has been restarted on a windless night in January when half a dozen national grids are involved, many with recharging EVs connected.But I’m happy to be corrected on that.

Duker
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 28, 2022 2:01 pm

Even the sudden and complete blackout in South Australia ( caused by the shift to unstable renewable energy) didnt destroy computers and such. Thats whats scare mongering. The rolling blackouts of course are very disruptive and seem likely no matter what

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 3:45 am

Id bet some did go and so did some fridges freezers and other stuff people left turned on when it rebooted. I will leave lights n radio on so I know when power resumes but always turn fridge freezers off, even with surge guards installed I also dont need the expense of buying more of them either if I can avoid it. pcs etc are never ever left on when not being used and plugs out when power goes down

Trying to Play Nice
Reply to  Duker
September 30, 2022 5:59 am

My desktop has an option to not restart after a power outage. But about 20 years ago a brownout did fry my hard drive.

Gary Pate
Reply to  Josh
September 28, 2022 9:00 pm

Is she a stripper on Only Fans?

Iain Reid
Reply to  Josh
September 29, 2022 2:08 am

Josh,

it is a difficult problem to restart a grid, not helped that renewables cannot be used as they are uncontrollable.
While the conventional power plants can be started and run in a controlled fashion, what is unknown is how much load is going to come on line as the power is restored especially as reactive load, e.g. electric motors, take a large amount of power on start, too much will overwhelm the generators so it is done on a conservative scale, which is slow. What is critical is how much conventional power can be started and run. Power stations can’t run without power. Some will have ‘black start’ backup diesel generators but I don’t know what percentage have that facility?
The fact that conventional power station capacity has been reduced does not help.

Hivemind
Reply to  Josh
September 29, 2022 6:52 am

No. After the ‘Black System’ event in South Australia in 2016, I did an analysis of the power supply and found predicted further blackouts in 2017 and 2018, which did happen (they were euphemistically called ‘demand management’).

Rational Db8
Reply to  Josh
September 29, 2022 6:01 pm

(I just can’t resist the perfect set up these things provide for a bit of snark/satire at Obama’s expense)

<b>That’s nothing!</b> My <a href=”http://mobile.wnd.com/2012/09/claim-obama-hid-gay-life-to-become-president/”><u>gay</u></a> (or should that be <a href=”http://www.nationalenquirer.com/celebrity/enquirer-exclusive-barack-obama-caroline-kennedy-cheating-scandal”><u>bis3xual?</u></a>) half-white petulant <a href=”http://www.nationalenquirer.com/celebrity/enquirer-exclusive-michelles-secret-divorce-file-0″> <u>philandering</u></a> president’s <a href=”http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/aug/23/deportation-statistics-said-to-be-inflated/”><u>undocumented immigrant</u></a> Uncle <a href=”http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/columns/2013/12/12/uncle-onyango-could-tell-president-obama-why-americans-don-believe-him/ROp6JaH7OY81Z5tEV4V3uJ/story.html”><u>Onyango</u> </a>makes $98 an hour on the computer. He has been <a href=”http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zeituni_Onyango”><u>without a job</u></a> his whole life, but last month his income with unearned benefits was $20,442 just working on the computer as a tech expert at healthcare-dot-gov part time! That leaves him all the time in the world to enjoy his hobbies of <a href=”http://www.judicialwatch.org/press-room/press-releases/memo-shows-obama-administration-granted-deportation-stay-to-presidents-illegal-alien-uncle-onyango-obama/”><u>collecting DUIs and ignoring multiple deportation orders.</u></a> Just like Obama’s dearly departed Auntie Zeituni – evading deportation runs in the family after all. Additional job <a href=”http://pjmedia.com/rogerkimball/2013/06/02/the-irs-scandal-it-just-gets-worse-and-worse/”><u>benefits</u></a> include <a href=”http://dailycaller.com/2013/05/14/irs-official-lerner-approved-exemption-for-obama-brothers-charity/”><u>substantial IRS support</u></a>, particularly if you happen to have <a href=”http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2014/01/28/photo-presidents-brother-malik-obama-wears-kaffiyeh-declaring-that-muslims-will-destroy-israel/”><u>terrorist ties</u></a> or are an <a href=”http://hotair.com/archives/2015/02/12/irs-commissioner-illegals-are-now-eligible-for-tax-credits-under-obamas-amnesty-even-for-years-past/”><u>illegal alien.</u></a> We are, above all, an Affirmative Action employer – we believe in going the extra mile for illegals to create a better world. The American Taxpayer has had it too easy for too long, after all. You really think you’re sumptin’, but we’re here to reeducate you to see The Truth and Social Just-US.  

<i>Guantanamo Detainees Welcome – 10 bonus hiring preference points will be awarded</i>

ASTONERII
Reply to  Dave Yaussy
September 28, 2022 1:30 pm

Happens in 3rd world nations all the time, and, since I have family in third world nations, I would hear about the loss of their computers, since I am the one they go to to get replacements.

Duker
Reply to  ASTONERII
September 28, 2022 2:05 pm

yes. My computer loses power now and then as its has a few power cables connected up which get knocked up ( also has a transformer connected like lap tops do. I have surge protection on the boards as thats a small risk too, but would normally switch off at the wall after a system power cut so the small possibility of a surge is reduced.

Reply to  Duker
September 28, 2022 5:53 pm

Exactly. The UPS on this machine could theoretically power it for more than an hour – but it is only for power flickers, not power failure for more than the time it takes to properly shut it down.

Hivemind
Reply to  Dave Yaussy
September 29, 2022 6:50 am

South Australia had a complete ‘Black System’ in 2016. It took weeks to get everybody back up.

Steve Case
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 6:13 am

Pretty much what I was going to post.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 6:22 am

Yes, they can 1) hop on a plane to grid paradise in California or 2) buy lots of PC battery backup with surge protectors…..from China to go with their rooftop solar made with slave labor–they have some experience with utilizing slave labor. /sarc

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 6:27 am

Need help with grid chaos? Better ask Vlad for grid help after he used his remote subs in the Baltic to damage NordStream.

MM from Canada
Reply to  Bob Sadler
September 28, 2022 9:57 am

Since when does the CIA broadcast its intentions?

HwyEng
Reply to  MM from Canada
September 28, 2022 10:42 am

When there is someone incompetent in the Oval Office.

Greg
Reply to  MM from Canada
September 28, 2022 10:53 am

Since when was Biden the CIA spokesman ?
US just ensured the economic destruction of their “allies” in Europe and crippling energy costs for every citizen in Europe.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Greg
September 28, 2022 12:03 pm

Really? You believe that? Easily influenced, are you?

Although I guess I should add that Fox News host,Tucker Carlson also believes in the Biden’/Nordstream2 consiracy theory. He said so on tv last night. I had to laugh when I heard him make the claim. Tucker’s appeaser viewpoint is putting him way out there in la la land.

Tulsi Gabbard, a guest on Tucker’s show, wasn’t prepared to go that far though. She didn’t agree with Tucker’s characterization of the situation. Tulsi is a smart woman.

Last edited 2 months ago by Tom Abbott
Barry Malcolm
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 28, 2022 3:25 pm

Tulsi still couldn’t find Hunter Biden’s laptop though, hmmm?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Barry Malcolm
September 29, 2022 5:50 pm

I don’t know anything about a connection between Tulsi and Hunter’s laptop. I infer you are claiming Tulsi is somehow denying Hunter’s laptop is relevant to anything. I don’t think that’s the case. Perhaps you have evidence showing otherwise.

markl
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 28, 2022 4:36 pm

Have you seen the video of Biden making the statement that if Russia invades Ukraine “then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it” (that’s a quote). When asked by a reporter how it will go away he said “We will. I promise you. We will be able to do that.” (another quote). Conspiracy theory or valid observation on who’s part?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  markl
September 29, 2022 3:55 am

valid especially as for nearly the first time a rov and other specialty equipped usa warboat was rather close to the areas that got blown up timeframe was around 4 am then 7pm wide spaced distance from reports I read.
highly doubtful russia would have managed even its silent subs to manage that and Putins NOT stupid no way was it in Russias interest to destroy it

Tom Abbott
Reply to  markl
September 29, 2022 5:44 pm

That’s your evidence?

I saw a report yesterday that Russian ships were detected in the area where the pipeline explosions occurred. Can I use that as evidence that the Russians were involved?

Paul Fletcher
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 30, 2022 2:38 pm

The Russians have valves that they can turn off while at home.
Biden’s mind is shot, he doesn’t even know where he is sometimes.
Did you see the opening up of the pipeline into Poland within 2 days of the “Leak” that followed explosions?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  markl
September 29, 2022 5:52 pm

You guys have your skeptic hats on when it comes to human-caused climate change, but for some reason you take your skeptic hats off when it comes to the Putin/Ukraine situation and accept the first conspiracy theory you see.

Put your skeptic hats back on.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  markl
September 30, 2022 5:33 am

I’ve seen Biden’s speech. That was the first thing Tucker Carlson used as “evidence” of his conspiracy theory.

Now, where’s the evidence that Biden actually took action to physically destroy the pipeline? There is none. There is just as much “evidence” that Russia was involved in the destruction with Sweden reporting Russian ships in the area of the explosions just days before.

You and Tucker are assuming too much.

Put your skeptic hat back on.

Last edited 2 months ago by Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 28, 2022 5:56 pm

Vlad the Tyrant? Biden the Vegetable? Greenpeace the Insane?

Perhaps equally possible culprits – but NONE of them can be ruled out.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  writing observer
September 29, 2022 5:46 pm

I agree, none can be ruled out. But there’s no evidence ruling anyone in just yet either, despite some claims to the contrary.

catcracking
Reply to  Tom Abbott
October 1, 2022 10:48 am

I wonder if you actually listened to Carlson on the Nordstream 2 conspirancy or some inaccurate characterization of what he actually said. Are you one of his regular followers? I listened to his actual words and what he proposed was a specific scenario that included statements from Biden and Russian incentives to sabotage the pipeline. I did not interpret that he was outright claiming that Biden did it.
It seems to me that Russia has the valve Putin could just shut it off, not destroy it. Possibly you could explain that?
Carlson is exceptionally good at thoroughly discussing, providing actual data on an issue and allowing open minded people make up their mind.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Greg
September 29, 2022 3:51 am

and a massive ongoing sale of expensive LPG to eu.. and ongoing debt from eu for “help” lendlease etc that has only just been paid off.eu from being the “other risk” to the ussa hegemon of a power centre(like china)
is now a shambolic mess
meanwhile usa is stealing some 80k barrels of oil a day from Syria but thats all cool

Robert B
Reply to  MM from Canada
September 28, 2022 12:53 pm

FFS! Russia can switch off the flow. Why blow it up?

Duker
Reply to  Robert B
September 28, 2022 2:10 pm

Yes. Russia has already restricted/stopped flow in Nordstream1 for various reasons.
As the various pipelines through Ukraine/Poland still carry gas , it seems that Poland has most benefit as they get hefty transit fees for gas passing through – and first dibs on the gas for their own consumption ( although they are still big on coal).

Poland was overblown in its opposition to both Nordstreams, but as they are outside its territory could do little – but even got US on its side to impose sanctions against the firms involved . Unbelievable

jarek
Reply to  Duker
September 28, 2022 7:18 pm

‘On 26 April 2022, Gazprom announced it would stop delivering natural gas to Poland via the Yamal–Europe pipeline, as well as to Bulgaria, as both country had rejected Russia′s demand that payments for gas be made in Russian rubles’

Bother to show us those ‘various pipelines through Ukraine/Poland [that] still carry gas’ in Poland:
comment image

Same half-truths and blatant lies on the oh-that-insignificant-little-country-in-the-middle, ‘Duker’?
Seems like Poland has always been right about Russia.

Last edited 2 months ago by jarek
Duker
Reply to  jarek
September 28, 2022 9:47 pm

Well Poland was the first to invade Ukraine 100 years ago, and occupied a large area.
However how haven’t kept up in current events
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-gas-supplies-resume-poland-operator-data-2022-04-27/

As well gas in transit through Poland isn’t paid for by Poland as it’s them who gets the money…..
Ukraine should be very worried by Poland as they still have historical claims on Eastern Ukraine from the Austrian era and Commonwealth eras and would be very happy to help themselves to the spoils

ltexpat
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 12:22 am

Not just 100 years ago.
Poland first fought Kievan Rus for control of territories in Ukraine 1,041 years ago in 981.
The area that is now Ukraine has been fought over by all its neighbours, especially Poland, for more than 1,000 years.
At Poland’s maximum extent in the early 17th century, they controlled virtually all of modern Ukraine. Then by 1794, they lost it all!
No sympathy for the Poles.
They are failed imperialists, think they are entitled to dominion over Eastern Europe and hate Russia for a) being in their way, and b) being Orthodox and not Catholic, and blame everybody but themselves for their failures.

R_G
Reply to  ltexpat
September 29, 2022 3:02 am

That is one of the most stupid statement I have seen that can compete with the griff’s ones.

R_G
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 2:57 am

That’s intersting statement, particularly that Poland didn’t exists 100 years ago.

jarek
Reply to  R_G
October 1, 2022 1:11 am

Mods,
You are dealing here with paid Russian trolls.
CE knows them very well. The rest of Europe larns quickly the hard way, others lag terribly.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 5:06 am

It’s you who hasn’t kept up. Here are the flows via the Kondrakti border point since the beginning of 2021.

chart (2).png
It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 5:23 am

For completeness here is Baumgarten

chart (3).png
It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 5:24 am

And here is Nordstream: the total flow is the sum of the purple and green ,ones, which are the onward transmission in different directions from Griefswald.

chart (4).png
ozspeaksup
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 3:58 am

ah but the SAME day Polands link to the new baltic line from ?sweden? one of those spots got turned on..amazing timing huh?

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 5:00 am

There is no Russian gas transiting Poland: that was the first export line the Russians cut supply on, despite a safe overland route via Belarus.. Limited quantities via Ukraine and Slovakia to the hub at Baumgarten, Austria.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Robert B
September 29, 2022 3:57 am

they had it turned off Luckily. it was pressurized to begin when germany pulled out so it was holding a fair whack but was NOT “turned on” just sitting, waiting.
good that Nord1 WAS nearly off flow wise or it may have been far worse

Reply to  Robert B
September 30, 2022 4:52 pm

with explosion its an act of god and contracts to deliver gas are null and void.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  MM from Canada
September 29, 2022 3:48 am

pretty often when they accuse someone else of what theyre about to do;-)

Ted
Reply to  Bob Sadler
September 28, 2022 4:24 pm

Even as dumb as Biden is, this was a threat to shut down the pipeline via regulation, not to destroy it.

Reply to  Ted
September 28, 2022 5:58 pm

If Biden believes that he can “regulate” what goes on in the Baltic Sea – is that not even more hubristic?

Duker
Reply to  writing observer
September 28, 2022 9:50 pm

Obama and Trump shared the same hubris

Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 7:50 am

What possible reason would Putin have to sabotage a gas pipeline when with just a few words he could have halted all Gazprom gas flowing through that pipeline?

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 28, 2022 8:38 am

I guess you’re not a graduate of the KGB School of Management.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 9:43 am

I don’t think the KGB exists today. Will the CIA do?

Reply to  Frank from NoVA
September 28, 2022 10:23 am

Nice one!!

jeffery P
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
September 28, 2022 2:55 pm

The KGB was mostly competent.

Gary Pate
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
September 28, 2022 9:05 pm

It’s called the FSB now & it is full of Putin’s old cronies.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
September 29, 2022 4:01 am

criminal intel agency WILL do (anything it pleases)

Greg
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 10:54 am

“I guess you’re not a graduate of the KGB School of Management.”

I guess you are not a graduate of ANYTHING.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Greg
September 28, 2022 11:59 am
Barry Malcolm
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 3:27 pm

How much for underprivileged children?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 29, 2022 4:05 am

and thats not mentioning the ?illions per MONTH being pumped to ukies to “keep economy going” around 16 mil? I think I read
supposedly payed back but ukie had a well deserved rep for being criminal and an awful lot of usa money went awol in/before 2014 as well.
rather like the pallets of cash in afghanistan did .
question of a LOT of tonnage of ukie gold also vanished after 2014 too

Duker
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 2:13 pm

Guess who has bitterly opposed the Nordstreams being built , as it reduced their transit revenue from gas flow via existing pipelines by billions?

Follow the money

jarek
Reply to  Duker
September 28, 2022 7:22 pm

A usual signature of the Kremlin propaganda: smear Poland, never mention the name. Classic example. See above.

Duker
Reply to  jarek
September 28, 2022 9:53 pm

Poles have always smeared, remember the politicians plane crash . The CVR had the pilots saying we can’t land in the fog, and the president overuling the military pilots who then tried…….in heavy fog

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 6:14 am

The only country that stood to miss out was Ukraine, as has been the case on and off ever since the breakup of the USSR, particularly when it failed to pay its bills for gas. A big part of the motivation for the Nordstream pipelines for the Russians was to transfer the credit risk of supplying Ukraine to the EU without jeopardising sales to the EU itself.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 28, 2022 8:42 am

The earlier maintenance excuse expired.

Quelgeek
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 28, 2022 10:05 am

It makes a kind of sense. Russia isn’t really able to use the Nordstream pipelines at the moment. As expensive as it will be to repair the damage, blowing up his own pipelines is a relatively cheap way for Putin to put Europe on notice that all undersea pipelines, interconnects, and even the internet are very attractive and very exposed targets.

“Keep arming Ukraine and your internet/electricity/phones/gas are next.”

That is a much more potent message than just refusing to deliver gas, yet much safer than infliciting violence on a NATO member.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  Quelgeek
September 28, 2022 10:23 am

This is like breaking your own arm so that you don’t have to go to work. It’s much less painful to just come up with another lie about feeling sick, especially when you know you can’t be easily sacked.

HotScot
Reply to  Quelgeek
September 28, 2022 12:01 pm

Blowing up your own pipeline is a dumb move if you want to convince someone you can blow up their undersea pipeline/internet/electricity cable. They could have picked innumerable undersea cables around the world to damage to set an example, without cutting off their own nose.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  HotScot
September 28, 2022 1:56 pm

I don’t think either of these pipelines were actually supplying much if any gas.

Duker
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 28, 2022 9:56 pm

Not true . Nordstream 1 , was a dual pipeline used for decades

The new Nordstream 2 never became operational

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  HotScot
September 29, 2022 6:17 am

They aren’t cutting off their nose. They already halted deliveries. Attacking a foreign pipeline would be a clear act of war, and an escalation that would probably provoke a hot war with NATO that might be buting off more than Russia can chew. This reads like a carefully calibrated act.

Robert B
Reply to  Quelgeek
September 28, 2022 1:00 pm

No. It does not make sense when you can switch off the gas. Why send a message like that if you have no intention of resuming gas flow? You can cause more grief blowing up an interconnect or to Britain.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Robert B
September 29, 2022 6:28 am

That would be an act of war. Blowing up your own asset at little real cost sends a message that demonstrates capability. There have been other demonstrations of capability by operating underwater ROVs in the vicinity of key cables and pipes in the North Sea without actually getting them to set off damaging underwater explosions. The capability to deliver and the capability to cut lines have now both been demonstrated. The threat is clear.

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/russian-spy-ship-yantar-in-english-channel/

Barry Malcolm
Reply to  Quelgeek
September 28, 2022 3:29 pm

That doesn’t make a kind of sense. Btw, get someone to edit your posts.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Quelgeek
September 29, 2022 4:08 am

problem?
seems germany paid quite a bit for the line so theyre losing probably more than russia

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 29, 2022 6:32 am

Germany has already lost most of its Russian supply, and is incurring the costs of doing so. This action has no cash or supply effect on Germany at all. There was no supply. They won’t be paying for even a share of repairs until there is a complete reversal of policy on their part to eliminate Russian supply, and on Putin’s part to reinforce the consequences of their decision.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 29, 2022 7:32 am

Shareholdings

Gazprom 51%
Wintershall 15.5% German
E.On 15.5% German
Gasunie 9% Dutch
Engie 9% Franco- Belgian

Reply to  Richard Greene
September 28, 2022 10:22 am

Exactly

Greg
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 28, 2022 11:04 am

“he could have halted all Gazprom gas flowing through that pipeline”

He already HAS stopped NS1 for “maintenance” and NS2, though production ready for over a year and under pressure filled with gas, has never delivered and once of gas because Germany was bullied is not opening it.

It is risible to suggest that Russia would sabotage a pipe line it already controls and which is not delivering gas.

This is US sabotage to ensure that public and business pressure does not force the German govt to change its mind this winter.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Greg
September 28, 2022 11:55 am

Wagner Group BS

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Greg
September 28, 2022 12:19 pm

He says with no evidence whatsoever.

Duker
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 28, 2022 9:59 pm

Polish special forces. Follow the money as they benefit from gas transit fees but not through Baltic pipelines.
Notice Poland always opposed the Baltic pipelines even though it’s not their business

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 6:34 am

Do tell me that pipeline deliveries via Belarus and Poland have resumed. They haven’t, nor will they.

chart (2).png
Ben Vorlich
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 28, 2022 1:54 pm

Why would any country in the EU do it?
Russia had cut Nordstream1 at the beginning of September and said supplies wouldn’t be resumed until sanctions had been lifted. I’m not sure that Nord Stream2 was actually ever fully operational.
So it’s a mystery as to who and why?

Duker
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 28, 2022 10:05 pm
It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Duker
September 29, 2022 6:36 am

I’ve posted charts on all the pipelines that supply Germany. Posting out of date new stories compared with the latest data as of just hours ago is irrelevant.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Ben Vorlich
September 29, 2022 4:18 am

only if you dont follow a larger agenda is it a mystery
remember Libya? what suddenly made Gaddafi a target?
he wanted to stop trading in us$ for oil and move to gold
ie usa loses its percentage bite.
usa blacked access to SWIFT so BRICSA is making other plans to avoid trade in us$ thats going to upset the banksters a lot and again risks us$ becoming NOT the only option…cant have that …
Trumps silliest idea was that usa could make megabucks and provide enough LNG at a tidy profit to the fools in the EU. transit times costs and reliable LARGE enough reserves seems to have been overlooked. as usa started to cop shortages and price rises Voila! 2 gas process plants go down freeing up home supply, but the lure of megabucks will soon return you to shortages at home again I reckon

Oddgeir
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 28, 2022 3:28 pm

“(…) he (Putin) could have halted all Gazprom gas flowing through that pipeline?”

There wasn’t any flow through neither NS1 nor NS2. Russia wanted to start exports with NS2, Germany blocked it. Russia later viewed the pipeline literally as a back-up storage facility for the gas to be used in Russia over winter.

Occams razor: Who benefited? Ukraine for sure, en liu Russia doesn’t need to export nada if they don’t wanna, I would like to see arguments on the benefit to Russia.

100’s of millions in profits for one LNG shipment from USA to Europe, added benefit of ensuring Germany will have no reason to declare unconditional surrender when no gas flow would be the result of such unconditional surrender.

It is easy to track AIS and satellite images. It is easy to find out which boats, ships were sailing into the area, operated in the area and left the area in question. If none can be found by Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Poland, Russia, Latvia, Litauania, Estland, Finland marines or NATO presence, we are talking a yet to be identified submarine.

Who’d be able to sneak past Swedens listening devices? None. Not even the Swedes, thats how good their equipment is.

Perhaps except a friendly country demanding a favor from Sweden?

Oddgeir

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Oddgeir
September 29, 2022 6:45 am

Not so easy to track actually. The Russians in particular have been switching off AIS transponders on LNG and ships with military purpose and at other times giving them false identities. They stopped declaring destinations too. Only when they are entirely obvious in European shipping lanes might they admit identity. The website of the Northern Route has stopped giving any information about vessel movements in the Arctic.

The benefit to Russia is to remind the West that winter is coming, and that they have the capability to interrupt subsea cables and pipelines.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 29, 2022 6:01 am

He already had halted all flow at the end of August. Since then he did a big flaring session to upset the environmentalists from the compressor station at Portovaya.

The damage to the pipelines would not be all that expensive to repair. Perhaps a few hundred metres of pipe at most. Timeliness on doing so is a different matter, and of course subject to agreement/naval oversight etc. So only when Putin is prepared to supply gas to Germany again. Remember the EU has sworn to eliminate Russian supply, so it could simply be a message from Putin that reads “Fine, if that’s what you want let e help you achieve it. Winter is coming.”

Meantime, make signs of the climate cross against an environmental methane emissions vampire. Would Gore have permitted an operation that was going to result in protracted methane leaks that could be boosted by pumping from Russia?

Reply to  Richard Greene
September 30, 2022 4:55 pm

gazprom has a contract to deliver. if there is force majure, they can escape a lawsuit

Gregory Woods
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 8:38 am

Apparently your brain is not one of your resources….

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Gregory Woods
September 28, 2022 9:16 am

Are with Wagner Group?

HotScot
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 12:02 pm

Mindless and witless comment.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Gregory Woods
September 29, 2022 5:36 am

I raise my HIMARS to you.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 9:40 am

Doubtful, but let’s examine all the options:

1) Could be an accident, but that’s a remote possibility given 3 lines failing in an identical fashion at the same time. Very doubtful.

2) Possibly Vlad the Impaler, but then you have to wonder why he would blow up the lines when he could just safely shut them down. Not at expert here, but I assume re-streaming a submerged pipeline that is ruptured and full of sea water is probably an expensive and difficult undertaking, so consider me skeptical of this alternative.

3) Perhaps one or more of our ‘Allies’, but which one? Ukraine, maybe, but they seem to be a far piece from the Baltic, and probably are lacking in subsea demolition expertise. Another possibility is one of our NATO ‘partners’, but what would be their motive in blowing up a potential source of gas, particularly should they begin having second thoughts about US sanctions on Russia that seem to be harming them more that Vlad the Impaler?

4) Which finally brings us to the Biden Administration. Hurts Vlad the Impaler? Check. Prevents the ‘Allies’ from backing away from US sanctions? Check. Hopefully I’m wrong, but given the balance of the Administration’s policies, I’d be willing to bet on this.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
September 28, 2022 10:31 am

At a depth of 70 meters, this was not done with normal scuba diving equipment and simple pipe bombs. And to avoid detection from all the pesky satellites, most likely involved long range submersibles (think submarine). An operation like this would require the resources of a national government, and there is probably only a few with the ability to do it in the Baltic. The US, UK, maybe Germany, and certainly the Russians come to mind. Maybe a couple of other northern European countries like Norway, but the list is quite short.

I wouldn’t put it past the Biden administration to do something like this.

HotScot
Reply to  Paul Penrose
September 28, 2022 12:09 pm

Whilst the Baltic sea used to be the domain of the USSR/Russia it’s now controlled by NATO.

There has been considerable known US naval activity in the area, some only a week or so ago.

Unmanned submersibles or drones might have been employed and the explosives fitted with timers, or somehow remotely detonated.

In any event, this is a major global power at work here. Few small nations have that sort of capability.

It narrows the field somewhat, and with the utterly deranged Biden administration proudly employing gender bender officials as their virtuous acceptance of inclusivity, rather than appointing on ability, who knows what they are capable of.

Reply to  Paul Penrose
September 28, 2022 6:14 pm

Link: https://www.padi.com/courses/tec-100-ccr.

The equipment is there, the training is available, and there are plenty of civilians that could do this. (Some, admittedly, could be EX-military.)

One of the SEAL insertion submarines is also not necessary to avoid detection; a reasonably sized pleasure would be quite adequate. Intel satellites do NOT have 100% coverage of every square meter, twenty-four hours a day, seven days a week. Yes, the most advanced might be able to tell what novel you are reading on that park bench – but only if they are tasked to point there.

This is why you cannot even rule out extreme Greens. They’re all insane, of course – but not all of them are stupid or incompetent.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  writing observer
September 29, 2022 9:43 am

The ability to be able to operate at those depths, AND the required expertise in explosives, AND the ability to acquire those explosives, AND the ability to combine all these things to hit three different targets in a short time span, puts this kind of operation outside the reach of NGOs.

Greg
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
September 28, 2022 11:12 am

“when he could just safely shut them down”

Geez, do none of you guys know anything about what is happening in Europe? NS2 have NEVER delivered gas because of US pressure and sanctions on Europe.

NS1 has been totally shut down for over a month due to alleged pump failure.

Otherwise your logic is impeccable.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Greg
September 28, 2022 11:50 am

The gas lines were filled and under pressure. If it makes you feel better, you can substitute ‘safely maintain the lines’ for ‘safely shut them down’.

Robert B
Reply to  Greg
September 28, 2022 1:07 pm

It is impeccable. Why blow them to stop the flow if not flowing?

Putin could just stop them from being switched on again. It was implied that we were referring to them being operational rather than pumping at the time.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Robert B
September 29, 2022 6:48 am

Because it articulates a threat, and annoys greenies by releasing lots of methane to the atmosphere.

huls
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
September 29, 2022 3:48 am

US warships in the vicinity at the time of the sabotage
Biden has threatened to stop the NS pipeline
US is record selling gas to EU

Means motive, opportunity and a confession. What more do you need

Let’s go Brandon

ResourceGuy
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 11:54 am

Seismologists registered two powerful tremors in the areas of the gas leaks near the Danish island of Bornholm on Monday that they said weren’t earthquakes and pointed to blasts.

Better call Vlad

HotScot
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 11:57 am

Every informed commentator I have watched over the last two days on this subject agrees that whilst it might or might not be America that sabotaged Nordstream 2, it’s almost 100% certain it wasn’t Russia.

They have just lost the leverage they had over sanctions.

Ben Vorlich
Reply to  HotScot
September 28, 2022 2:01 pm

Why would an EU country do it?
When the Ukraine and Vlad The Invader come to some sort of arrangement then there will still be a need for gas in the EU.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  HotScot
September 29, 2022 5:40 am

Your misinformation is blatant today. I guess the EU is the new Ukraine for voodoo doll treatment by Russians. The Putin virus spreading.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  HotScot
September 29, 2022 7:00 am

Nonsense. If the Russians have a few hundred metres of spare pipe in stock all it takes is a pipe laying barge, pigging the line to cut flow and some calm weather. Probably a few weeks’ work at worst, and little cost.

The Russians have moved on to nuclear threats. We aren’t anywhere close to sanctions being a consideration for the Russians. Their effect is limited, even if Mercedes soares are hard to come by.

RossGH
Reply to  HotScot
September 30, 2022 7:23 am

I am a retired offshore oil development engineer. These pipelines are about 1-1/2″ high strength steel with about 4″ of heavy (strong) concrete weight coating with around 1,000 psi of internal pressure in about 300 feet of water. They are NOT easy to destroy.

Someone spent some time figuring out how to do it and perhaps did some testing. Just guessing, a 1,000 pound bomb would in the range. This would need to be water proof and with an ignition control, probably a timer. It would need to be placed on or very near the pipeline. This cannot be done without effort and significant planning, especially if it is covert. Just guessing, the bomb could have been placed a few weeks ago.

My guess is Russia. The pipelines are shut-in; at this point they lose no money if it is destroyed. The Ukraine war has eliminated the economic viability of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline – Europe will never again put themselves in the position of being controlled by Russia gas leverage. In the immediate term, Russia has proved to Europe that Russia can covertly destroy their biggest underwater pipelines. Perhaps they have already placed remotely activated bombs on active pipelines??

Russia has claimed that the USA did it – as expected in any case. However, we have not heard them complaining about the huge economic loss or about immediately commencing investigations to determine what happened, or about joining the Danish or Swedish efforts.

I suspect that at the highest level, the USA, Germany etc KNOW that Russia did it. They are trying to figure out what to do about other bombs and trying to decide what to tell the public. Preventing further explosions may not be easy.

Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 7:52 am

Reads like worst case fear porn

MarkW
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 8:21 am

Are you declaring that there will be no blackouts this winter in Europe?

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 8:49 am

I’d call it “manipulative scaremongering” instead. By predicting a case
that’s way beyond what’s likely, people will actually feel relieved &
grateful to the gubmint that caused this mess. It’s the same feeling I get
when the 1′ of snow with a blizzard only ends up being 4″ with the usual N
wind that follows.

Last edited 2 months ago by Old Man Winter
David Pentland
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 9:30 am

Unprecedented Europe wide blackouts would be a demonstration to the true believers:
“This is what decarbonizing looks like”.

Robert Hanson
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 2:41 pm

Warning, reading the rest of these comments will turn out to be a total waste of time. Folks with various political agendas pontificating on things they know nothing at all about. Go ahead and read on if you must, but remember when you get to the end, knowing nothing more than you did before you began, you were warned.

Fitting I guess that they follow an utterly ridiculous article with a Y2K scenario where millions of computers are destroyed by a blackout. Just unplug your electronics when the power goes out, and don’t plug them back in until the grid is once again stable.

Reply to  Robert Hanson
September 28, 2022 6:22 pm

Unplug, plug – yes. Which is apparently being assumed will happen for 70% of computers. Might be a tad optimistic. I have personally seen nine out of ten systems damaged in a marketing department where the employees just “kept on trucking” because they had UPS on them. (Varying degrees – some just data corruption, some software corruption, but one literally lit its monitor on fire when the restoration surge hit – my IT coworker nearly ran me over to get it outside where, if the vacuum tube exploded, it wouldn’t do more damage. Yes, that old…)

Megs
Reply to  Mr David Guy-Johnson
September 28, 2022 4:15 pm

David we live a few kilometres from a commercial scale solar project and since it was commissioned in 2019 we have had more than 15 blackouts, plus a few planned blackouts. We have had several items of electronic equipment destroyed by a number of these events including a water pump, the motor to the garage door, a ceiling fan and an electric jug. We built the house the same year that the solar was commissioned so all of these items were new. We also have regular brownouts which means the cooking hobs have less energy and when dinner finally is ready it’s like eating by candle light, but not in the least bit romantic.

We also have the misfortune to live in a Renewable Energy Zone and the renewables target has been upgraded from 3,000MW to a still unreliable 12,000MW. We are very scared.

Steve Case
September 28, 2022 6:19 am

One way to stay warm is exercise. People could form
organized groups and carry pitch forks and torches.

IanE
Reply to  Steve Case
September 28, 2022 6:31 am

And, of course, anyone with a hammer sees every problem as a nail. I bet the WEF would be imitating bears in the woods!

HotScot
Reply to  Steve Case
September 28, 2022 12:16 pm

That’s one of the reasons the pipe may have been sabotaged. Demonstrations may have turned into riots over winter/spring and the German government overthrown. As the current government is a puppet of America that would be seriously inconvenient.

Blow up a pipeline that could be negotiated to supply gas to Germany to stop people freezing to death this winter and there’s no reason to riot.

Although I suspect that won’t stop them.

Mr.
September 28, 2022 6:19 am

Hhmmm.
I think that power supply components in computers these days are far more robust and voltage variation tolerant than they were back in say the 1980s, when I was involved in the power electronics business.

Was easy then to sell an uninterruptible power supply (UPS) for the server in every business.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Mr.
September 28, 2022 9:32 am

I recall an article where someone decided to test how bad it would really be if you zapped a computer with a switch mode power supply with some overvoltage. Turned out, even 1,000 volts (I think) wouldn’t kill the power supply, although it did get a bit crispy. I have my computer on a UPS, with a surge suppressor downstream. I doubt it would help if there was a lightning strike outside the basement window, but anything else isn’t likely to cause much concern. I’m sure the folks in Germany are at least as smart as I am in this regard. Or, hey, turn off the computers until the grid stabilizes after a black start.

Paul Penrose
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
September 28, 2022 10:37 am

Actually, under-voltage may be more damaging. I’d be interested in seeing what happens to all those switching power supplies when run at 70 or 80 volts and/or wildly fluctuating voltages. Generally they are not designed for that environment.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Paul Penrose
September 29, 2022 9:48 am

Good quality SMPS’s will have a buck/boost feature, allowing normal operation under low voltage conditions, but 70-80 might be outside that window. If the input voltage gets too low, my guess is the DC rails get too low and send the computer into shutdown, just as if you had punched the power button. My computer won’t automatically try to come back on once power is restored, so it’s not going to whipsaw between on and off. YMMV.

Joseph Zorzin
September 28, 2022 6:34 am

just rebooting the power grid would destroy about 30% of electronic devices such as computers

Not if the computers are plugged into an uninteruptable power supply. Of course they’ll have to turn off the computers ASAP when the power goes down but I should think when the power comes back, the UPS will protect the computers.

andic
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
September 28, 2022 7:36 am

It depends, if the UPS has voltage smoothing as well as being a big battery I agree. But not all do; I fell foul of that when 270V came down the line to our lab and fried the X-ray tube on our XRF.
anyway how many domestic users have such equipment?

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  andic
September 28, 2022 9:34 am

anyway how many domestic users have such equipment?

Everyone who ever lost hours of work due to a powerline glitch.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
September 28, 2022 12:26 pm

I have a UPS connected to all my computers, and all my televisions, after I lost a television to a lightning strike a couple of years ago.

The lighting bolt struck right outside my house. It fried the tv, but the computers on the UPS never skipped a beat.

The Dark Lord
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
September 28, 2022 8:59 am

my bet is 90% of home computers and a large % of office computers are not on a UPS …
most servers should be ok … but everything else that is at the other end of the cat5/6 cable is vulnerable …

HotScot
Reply to  The Dark Lord
September 28, 2022 12:21 pm

A lot of home computers are laptops these days, often running on low voltage chargers.

In fact, most of our youth don’t bother with PC’s of any sort because they exist on their phones.

I’m not convinced this guy is talking about home and office systems though. Server farms etc. drawing huge amounts of power will be more of a problem.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  The Dark Lord
September 28, 2022 12:33 pm

I had a lightning strike that sent a jolt down my cat5 internet cable. It didn’t hurt the computer, but it caught the cat5 cable on fire where the cable connects to the router. If I had not been sitting right here in front of my computer, the fire might have spread and burnt my house down. But I smelled the smoke and put it out quickly.

The cat5 cable was run through a bunch of tree branches from origin to destination at the time, and that’s why the electrical charge went down it when the lightning bolt struck the trees. I took the cable out of the trees. Burying it is better. 🙂

Robert B
Reply to  Joseph Zorzin
September 28, 2022 1:10 pm

Maybe 30% aren’t protected?

Barnes Moore
September 28, 2022 6:56 am

I hope the experts as cited in this article are once again wrong, although a part of me wants to see something terrible happen short of a mass casualty event – some major shock needs to happen to wake people up. Problem is, the media and the elites will just blame it on Russia and not on the lunacy of shutting down nukes, gas, and coal – although I hear the Germans are firing up coal plants again.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Barnes Moore
September 29, 2022 4:27 am

yes and using the main rail lines to ship it due to low river levels stuffing barges
so when it snows bigtime and the trains dont run?
oops no coal

tgasloli
September 28, 2022 6:56 am

It was not that long ago that the entire northeast of the US went into black out. I don’t recall reports of damage to 30% of computers during start up.

If this guy is the German black out expert that may help explain the German energy sector mess.

MarkW
Reply to  tgasloli
September 28, 2022 8:25 am

That was almost 60 years ago. Personal electronics back then consisted of vacuum tube powered TVs and radios.

The Dark Lord
Reply to  MarkW
September 28, 2022 9:00 am

its was less than 20 years ago …

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  MarkW
September 28, 2022 9:47 am

There have been several Northeast blackouts in the US. Big ones in 1965 and 2003, and a smaller ones here and there. So, the 2003 episode is certainly probative regarding impacts on electronic devices.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  MarkW
September 28, 2022 11:12 am

Nope, 2003. I still remember that one, came out of the blue while I was at work. Hadn’t topped up my gas tank, and barely made it home since gas stations didn’t have power either.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
September 29, 2022 4:32 am

and power down is bad enough but when powers back but nets not? still no access to fuel food etc for a huge amt who dont hold cash.
thats why the drive to end cash is really stupid

Gary Pearse
September 28, 2022 7:12 am

With peak renewables in Europe having been in 2017, dozens of
of ‘Power-Lite’ companies bankrupt, huge Policy-Caused^тм insurmountable life and death, problems for 100s of millions, Sri Lanka dominoes lined up, heads of state demissioned for it all, pushback,… why aren’t we reading that the whole WEF show is over.

David Anderson
September 28, 2022 7:22 am

Will they learn anything from this?

TonyG
Reply to  David Anderson
September 28, 2022 8:14 am

I think we know the answer to that, David.

Editor
September 28, 2022 7:35 am

The very existence of having this concern is a clear indication that the governments have screwed it up since this shouldn’t even close to being possible not after DECADES of power grid development and technological improvements only to see lack of reliable power producing sources be online.

The people need to vote in more rational people into political office if they want a more reliable future to depend on as they are woefully let down to the point some might even die from lack of heating because of the insane government policies that created this problem in the first place.

Yirgach
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 28, 2022 11:12 am

Restarting any kind of of large scale network with interdependent nodes and clients from scratch is a total nightmare. It is rarely done, so there is a huge lack of experience and knowledge. Now wonder they are making statements like that.

John Garrett
September 28, 2022 7:39 am

God help us, freezing in the dark may be the only way the dimwits learn.

Mark
September 28, 2022 7:55 am

Power cuts in UK last year following storm damage- I had two lasting several days.

no issues when the power came back

why would this be any different?

ATheoK
Reply to  Mark
September 28, 2022 8:41 am

Storm damage crews repair the many storm damaged local grids incrementally.

That means the ramp up is incremental and the power grid can match demand and generation.

When a grid fails at the main generating sites, not individual neighborhoods; turning the main grid back on is a dangerous proposition. All demand locations expect power simultaneously, there is no ramp up.

Do you know of circuits or circuit designs that can support massive instant demand over large geographical areas?

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  ATheoK
September 29, 2022 8:19 am

The solution is to energise controlled non reactive demand until there is a stable anchor in place. For example. Dinorwig has black start capability, as it only takes a small diesel generator to operate the actuators on the water flow, and generation is easily calibrated to demand and is insensitive to reactive power demand. Once it has enabled another powerstation startup, its generation can be wound down as the next is ramped up, and it can stay in operation offering alancung ancillary services. It can continue to do that and also flip to being primarily a demand by switching to pumping mode.

Also not to be entirely forgotten in the stabilisation potentially available from using batteries. They can act as demand when discharged in the same way as pumped storage in addition to providing ancillary balancing.

climanrecon
Reply to  Mark
September 28, 2022 8:48 am

Those were localized power cuts, this article is about the entire grid, google “electricity system black”.

rbabcock
September 28, 2022 8:07 am

Large commercial server farms have pretty robust backups and they can power down servers in an orderly manner as need be. If there is a complete unanticipated grid failure it certainly will be worse than if they are anticipated as those managing a facility do have a Plan A and Plan B. As far as small offices, power is lost all the time and with possible data loss, generally it is a nothing burger.

A lot of personal computers are laptops now. All four of mine are. I also have two iPads and a phone. Again no issue if power is lost.

About the only really big issue would be power surges which might be from a solar flare or lightening strike, but probably not from a failure of the grid. I’m not sure where the 30% number came from, but then again 64% of all statistics are made up.

ATheoK
Reply to  rbabcock
September 28, 2022 8:48 am

Large commercial server farms have pretty robust backups and they can power down servers in an orderly manner as need be.”

Large commercial server farms also employ line conditioners and often backup generators.

If the incoming energy is impossible to properly condition to correct voltage, amperage and frequency, they disconnect from the grid, rely upon battery backup while the backup generators start up.

Gary Pearse
Reply to  ATheoK
September 28, 2022 10:00 am

Yeah, but don’t think that those running the show are going to be rational. Wasn’t there a terrible flooding and loss of life in a German town a year ago below a full reservoir when a warning of a big rainstorm was forecast 3 or 4 days in advance? Functionaries didn’t release water from the reservoir which predictably over-topped, broke the dam and flooded the town?

The Dark Lord
Reply to  rbabcock
September 28, 2022 9:03 am

you are talking apples and oranges … he is not talking about a power outage … where when the power is restored it comes back very steady and stable … he is talking about the power coming back on and it having wild spikes in voltage/stability … something that normally never happens when you have a local outage …

jeffery P
September 28, 2022 8:44 am

Do people really spend hundreds or thousands of dollars on a computer and not purchase a $20 surge protector to you know, protect it? It would not surprise me. The server farms are all well protected but have they prepared for a grid shutdown and restart?

Philip
Reply to  jeffery P
September 28, 2022 8:58 am

If you look at your surge protector (they are MUCH more common in the US than in EU, due to the US having a third-world distribution system) it has a Joules rating – that is the amount of power that the device can dissipate to protect before it burns out itself. Those that you find in the $20 range are Chinese, and have a laughably low rating.

They will stop the small blips that you get, but something bigger – forget it.

Even the (much) more expensive versions (which, by the way, have a limited life and need to be replaced regularly) won’t stop a prolonged over-voltage surge for more than a few milliseconds.

Are they worth having? Well, the cheap Chinese variety, probably not. The more expensive ones, given the third-world US power distribution system, maybe.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Philip
September 28, 2022 9:17 am

I’m curious. What do you consider to be ‘third world’ about the US power distribution system?

Philip
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
September 28, 2022 5:09 pm

Stringing wires on wooden poles for a start. They should all be underground. Thinking it normal to have transformers explode right left and center every time there is more than a gentle breeze. 100+ year old wires in forests causing fires, so have to black out large areas if it gets warm and windy. 110v because the natives are too stupid not to stick their fingers in the holes, meaning that max power per ocket is ~1500w, huge and clunky power tools because the wire has to be so much thicker to handle the current.

John Dilks
Reply to  Philip
September 28, 2022 10:45 pm

You really don’t know much about our power system. Unlike Europe, we were not rebuilt from the ground up after two world wars. We were standardized before you and have not had to rebuild. We are also a very large country with a varied geography. Many places it is not practical to put our power lines underground. They are also much easier to repair above ground. Any fires caused by power lines are actually caused by stupid forest management practices. I have never felt that my power tools were huge and clunky.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  John Dilks
September 29, 2022 4:44 am

I gather you dont use electric kettles much in usa due to the low wattage supply making boiling them take forever,
undergrounding powerlines is so much safer and tidier and once done a lot less maintenance.
roadsides and housing areas also look so much better sans ugly poles.
Victoria in aus uses pine poles when I moved here it was like looking at early 1900s pics as I drove along, they say…they have underground power here yeah well if? after they use ugly metal and wood poles across your land then they FORCE the ONLY underground from the damned pole to the house at YOUR expense to dig the trench..which is also inground junctions that FILL with water every winter and attract snakes in summer for a cool spot,
sth Aus has rather good ingrounding being retrofitted and all new IS auto underground
only the massive interconnectors are aboveground.
when poles are used theyre solid crashproof Stobie poles or fallfast metal for streetlights etc less deaths when centrepunched and fast to fix

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Philip
September 29, 2022 5:02 am

‘They should all be underground.’

They are, where it makes sense to do so, i.e., in cities. But given the huge areal extent and dynamism (relative to, say, Europe) of US ‘load’ there’s no rational to make the system less flexible by ‘undergrounding’ vast portions of the system.

‘100+ year old wires in forests causing fires, so have to black out large areas if it gets warm and windy.’

That’s strictly the result of ‘progressive’ public utility commissions that emphasize the implementation of so-called green energy over system reliability, e.g. CA.

‘110v because the natives are too stupid not to stick their fingers in the holes,..’

Distribution voltage, immediately before it enters the home, is typically between 5 kv and 35 kv, while transmission voltages ranges from 69 kv to 750 kv or higher. That a typical home wall socket is 115 v has nothing to do with ‘the system’ and, in fact, most homes also have 220 v circuits to power hvacs, water pumps, ovens, etc.

Mr.
Reply to  Philip
September 28, 2022 9:33 am

The low-end cheap “protectors” are often not much more than a sacrificial metal oxide varistor (MOV) that cost a couple of cents each in bulk from China.

And yes, definitely a “one-shot” solution that needs replacing regularly (if worth installing at all).

Yirgach
Reply to  Philip
September 28, 2022 11:18 am

For cheap electronics, like a small microwave, I always use a surge protector with a dropout switch. That way, the thing stays off until you want it back on.
For more pricey machines, like servers, large TV, etc then I use a good commercial grade battery backup. I have more than a few machines which are over 15 years old in an area where we average at least one or two outages a month.

jeffery P
Reply to  Philip
September 28, 2022 2:19 pm

Please elaborate. “Third-world” electric system?”

And I’m afraid you took my post too literally regarding “$20 surge protector.” The point being people skimp on protecting their electronic devices.

And where can I get a surge protector not made in China?

The Dark Lord
Reply to  jeffery P
September 28, 2022 9:05 am

I’ve never been in an office that had a surge protector on my pc … or a UPS …
so yes … millions of expensive pc’s have no protection …

Last edited 2 months ago by The Dark Lord
John Dilks
Reply to  The Dark Lord
September 28, 2022 10:50 pm

I used to install a UPS with every PC where I worked. Then I ran into the problem with Budget people not wanting to replace batteries or UPS’s when they expired. I finally said “screw it” and just protected the servers.

TEWS_Pilot
September 28, 2022 8:57 am

The people in charge may try to manage with rolling blackouts, but if there is ZERO electricity being produced and/or the grid is collapsing with no way to stop it, they are just along for the ride.

Derek Nelson
September 28, 2022 9:18 am

I do not believe this story and am disappointed that it was allowed to be posted on this website. I can’t speak for Germany, but in North America, electrical generation protection systems prevent generation from being brought online unless it is stable at the right voltage and the right frequency. Restoration from blackout conditions is indeed difficult, but it won’t put any generation online that could damage electrical equipment. People who frequent this website are looking for truth amongst the climate change hype. We should not be stooping to climate alarmists standards.

aussiecol
September 28, 2022 9:35 am

As the saying goes…Becoming your own worst enemy.

Old Man Winter
September 28, 2022 9:39 am

Since solar & wind really suck for most of Europe, building more of it
won’t help much. All that $$$ would be better spent in getting access to
E Med natty gas via pipelines & building LNG shipping ports. Even though
Brandon pulled US support from the pipeline as part of Nobama’s plan
to deepen the energy crisis, Europe can still go ahead with it as the
US owns no land there & it doesn’t have to bear the full brunt of Europe’s
energy crisis.

What also makes no sense is Europe’s “Granholm-like” approach with Israel,
Egypt, & Cypress, as they tell them they won’t be needing much gas by
2030 & beyond. With such $!#$%#@ stupid green policy, their energy
crisis will continue way beyond 2030 as it must & unfortunately, may be
part of the Elites’ plan. At least the UK has enough sense to actually
do things that will solve their crisis on their own.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 28, 2022 11:20 am

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has vowed to be Nut Zero by 2030. Currently,
the UK has < 20 minutes of storage capacity. Those rolling blackouts will be
continuous instead.

HotScot
Reply to  Old Man Winter
September 28, 2022 12:28 pm

Captain hindsight is, as usual, some years behind everyone else. He’ll recognise there’s an energy crisis some three years down the road and campaign on that being the issue of the day.

aaron
September 28, 2022 9:50 am

Good news is Europe winter should be mild. (here, not so much.)
https://mobile.twitter.com/aaronshem/status/1574436061409083392

Last edited 2 months ago by aaron
Lil-Mike
September 28, 2022 10:03 am

nonsense

I was on the fileserver team in a Intel Corp data center during the eight days of Gray Davis rolling blackouts in California in 2000. Actual data center hardware losses are more like 0.003%. However, test-floor specialty equipment like high speed computer chip testers are much higher, those might be 30% equipment failures, but unlike your PC, those are repairable, probably the maintenance team needs to replace a $2,000 power supply. Most likely, the PC or data center computers which failed, weren’t going to reboot whether the power went out ‘rolling blackout’ or rebooted for some generic reason.

Modern electronics use switching power supplies that are compatible with both US 120v 60Hz power and European 240v 50Hz power—read your laptop power supply label. Unlike older models, the modern computer doesn’t ‘come on’ until the power supply is stable, and presents a ‘PWR_OK’ signal which initiates the boot sequence.

The real loss in blackouts, is the business time lost. Yes, our rolling blackouts lasted 1 hour exactly. However the recovery time for the data center is several hours. Our site had around 8,000 workers at a desk cost of $250/hr. You can see that the ideal loss runs about $2 million per hour. But you don’t lose just that hour, our outages were 11:00 AM to 12:00 PM, or one hour. But we didn’t fully recover until around 3PM. So we lost on paper, about 4 hours, about $8 million. The truth is, most people just went home for the day after the outage, so we really lost 5 hours, or about $10 million.

Remember, we did this for 8 days straight. Which prompted then Intel CEO Craig Barrett to state “Intel will never build another building in California.”

Old Cocky
Reply to  Lil-Mike
September 28, 2022 3:13 pm

Didn’t you have a UPS for each floor and a bank of standby diesel generators for the building?

John Dilks
Reply to  Old Cocky
September 28, 2022 10:54 pm

Obviously, not at that time.

Old Cocky
Reply to  John Dilks
September 29, 2022 12:00 am

It was fairly standard for Data Centres in the early 1990s.

Offices, not so much.

Peta of Newark
September 28, 2022 11:45 am

How does one get to be a ‘blackout expert
(This guy is simply lonely and depressed, some buy a pot of tea and share it with him)

I’d not rank his computer expertise greatly either,
Significant big mega-computers and server farms have their own power conditioning to filter out ‘noise’ of all forms plus an uninterruptible system of some sort.
Even if the uninterruptible only holds up for 5 minutes, it allows for an orderly shutdown, likewise startup.

Meanwhile take a look at the adapter on your laptop – it’ll say (UK versions) that it’s good for any voltage between 90 and 240 and any frequency, 50 or 60.
In fact, all they do as a first step in powering your lappy is rectify the AC signal, they’d probably work on DC between 100 and 400Volts.

Are there really *that* many big old clunky desktop computers still in use and in any case, a ‘proper’ organisation or company will have back-ups stored already.
Only numpties running old desktops at home will be affected.

If I still drank tea, I’d venture “2 sugars please”
Having said that, Ginger & Lemon Herbal Tea is very lovely
(All the rest are shyte)

edit to PS
The things that are REALLY wasted by power cuts, or Brown-Outs especially are (typically home) fridges and freezers

Especially when the compressor in them attempts to start.
if the voltage is low during a brown out, insufficient startup current will flow to get the motor up and running.
It will then sit in a stalled condition, switched but not spinning.
In which case, the large startup current the usually demand, although low due to the brownout. that current if left flowing will melt the motor.
Really it will.
So watch the lights in your house.
LED ones are best and if they start flickering, go switch off your fridge and freezer, also air con if you have one and if your really posh, the heat-pump

Last edited 2 months ago by Peta of Newark
vboring
September 28, 2022 11:48 am

There probably will be significant and deadly blackouts.

If you are super scared of computer damage, get a little uninterruptible power supply. They’re circa $20. While you’re at the store, get water, blankets, and a week or two of emergency rations.

Duker
Reply to  vboring
September 28, 2022 2:18 pm

Yes, no evidence of computer damage after the recent state wide blackout in South Australia.

Just power board with surge protection is all thats needed ( useful all the time not just blackouts) but a large blackout will likely cut the internet via land lines or cell data as they conserve the system for essential users and keeping computer running without internet might only be useful for playing games ?

Mike
September 28, 2022 2:10 pm

I’m a retired engineer and I had significant experience managing/operating several generations and technology types of complex power-generation facilities through both crash shutdowns and start-up.

I consider the article to be fully on point. It’s not scare-mongering but rather competent advice, anyone living in continental Europe would be well advised to assess their individual exposure and mitigation options.

It’s time for technically illiterate politicians, bureaucrats and journalists and eco-cult influencers to keep their fingers off critical systems they have no real understanding of.

Dave Gee
September 28, 2022 2:32 pm

This is absolute and complete cock from beginning to end. Even the vocabulary the man is using is irrelevant. What on earth is “strongly fluctuating power”? Power is a dependent variable and is the mathematical product (in the electrical environment) of supplied current and applied voltage. The supplied current is dependent upon the load connected and the voltage pretty much depends on how fast the alternators are going round. 

 If the power is strongly fluctuating then either the voltage or current is “fluctuating” rapidly either of which are supremely unlikely in a controlled blackstart environment. 

Yes, it’s possible that switching transients in the distribution network might produce voltage spikes which might just cause a problem in old or very cheap power supplies but probably not because these happen all the time when your local factory turns on another furnace for example. 

It is also immediately obvious that the statement “…the power gets ramped up, but we have a huge problem. The problem is that there is no load.” is complete cock also. There is no power if there is no load. When a load is applied – for example the main breakers for a distribution region are closed, then there will be a current flowing in the supply cables and so power will be dissipated by the connected load. The applied voltage may dip a little until the turbine governors operated and, because the alternators have slowed a little, the grid frequency may also be reduced slightly but not enough to make a difference to modern computer power supplies.

Any experts that calculate “about 30% of computers will be damaged” should take up a less intellectually strenuous job like politics or sharpening pencils in a pencil sharpening factory as they obviously have no capabilities in electrical engineering. 

And finally, and not that I wish to denigrate any person’s academic background especially if it is as wide ranging as Herr Jungnischke’s, I can’t really see how his knowledge of ornamental fish – “ There he works since 2004 as an expert of the IHK Cologne for koi pond construction, koi pond keeping and koi evaluation” – gives him an especial insight into power network black start procedures.

For those interested there is a jolly interesting and quite accessible paper on grid level blackstarts at

https://commons.lib.jmu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1236&context=master201019

Jim Gorman
Reply to  Dave Gee
September 28, 2022 4:32 pm

Have you ever brought a big power plant on line after a blackout? Tell how you do it!

You can’t just fire up a boiler and start generating massive amounts of electricity without a load. You have to cautiously put a load on the system by connecting a substation and have the generator working at that level. Once stable add another substation and make sure the boiler is capable of providing the steam required. If you don’t, you’ll have over or under voltage. There will be damage to all kinds of motors in this scenario. Compuers, probably not so much.

How do you control windmiills and solar farms. Many farms have one big connector into the grid. How do you control the load they see through that connector? Solar panels are no different. Don’t make it sound simpler that it truly is.

Gary Pate
September 28, 2022 8:57 pm

Is this before or after the Russian hackers destroy the other 70% of computers?

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Gary Pate
September 29, 2022 4:51 am

lol russia russia russia ;-))

Joel Snider
September 28, 2022 10:48 pm

Think progressives will own the death toll?
Or shift the blame?

ozspeaksup
September 29, 2022 3:40 am

makers of surge guards will , or should, do well. and seeing as “someone” removed the germans ability to recant the idiocy and agree on Nord2(seems the protests to do so were rising) then theyre stuffed.
change of govt overdue as is the dissolution of brussels eu unelecteds

It doesn't add up...
September 29, 2022 7:15 am

Perhaps a good place to start was when there actually was a widespread European blackout like this one

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_European_blackout

It may not have been a system black, but it did cover a very wide swathe of Europe. Then there was the rather more recent incident when the European grid split into two islanded portions with more limited actual blackout. That indicated that power in France was in fact spending on supply from as far away as Turkey, and the transmission capacity to make that work was inadequate and fell apart on the loss of one link.

The unusual supply patterns being forced on the grid by shortages of exports from France and Germany are certainly going to cause problems. Rotating blackouts are a certainty. As yet the EU has failed to agree on how to share them out, while the UK pretends wrongly that it won’t be affected.

james freeman
September 29, 2022 8:36 am

Trump did warn them.

October 1, 2022 4:43 am

Well, to all, the skeptics in the comments – my computer was destroyed by a local blackout. Normally, if the grid fails, the electricity goes off, and then comes back on again after minutes/hours, so the computer is rebooted once, maybe twice.
What happened this time, was the grid flickered – on/off, on/off dozens of times, with random breaks, from a fraction of a second to a few seconds to a few dozens of seconds. If you have electronics trying to make sense of it, things will get fried.
I now have a UPS that physically shields my computer from interruptions (essentialy it is a big battery topped up from the grid, but the computer is fed by the battery power at all times), but the boilers and any controlled devices are unprotected.

%d bloggers like this: