More Playstation model science or perhaps the new term should be virtual reality.-cr
UNIVERSITY OF EAST ANGLIA
More frequent and longer-lasting droughts caused by rising global temperatures pose significant risks to people and ecosystems around the world – according to new research from the University of East Anglia (UEA).
The study shows even a modest temperature increase of 1.5°C will spell serious consequences in India, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Brazil and Egypt. These six countries were selected for study in the UEA project because they provide a range of contrasting sizes and different levels of development on three continents spanning tropical and temperate biomes, and contain forest, grassland and desert habitats.
The findings, ‘Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming in six countries’, are published today in the journal Climatic Change.
The paper, led by Dr Jeff Price and his colleagues in the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at UEA, quantified the projected impacts of alternative levels of global warming upon the probability and length of severe drought in the six countries.
Dr Price, Associate Professor of Biodiversity and Climate Change, said: “Current pledges for climate change mitigation, which are projected to still result in global warming levels of 3 °C or more, would impact all the countries in this study.
“For example, with 3 °C warming, more than 50 per cent of the agricultural area in each country is projected to be exposed to severe droughts lasting longer than one year in a 30-year period.
“Using standard population projections, it is estimated that 80 per cent to 100 per cent of the population in Brazil, China, Egypt, Ethiopia and Ghana (and nearly 50 per cent of the population of India) are projected to be exposed to a severe drought lasting one year or longer in a 30-year period.
“In contrast, we find that meeting the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, that is limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, is projected to greatly benefit all of the countries in this study, greatly reducing exposure to severe drought for large percentages of the population and in all major land cover classes, with Egypt potentially benefiting the most.”
In the 1.5 °C warming scenario, the drought probability is projected to triple in Brazil and China, nearly double in Ethiopia and Ghana, increase slightly in India, and substantially increase in Egypt.
In a 2 °C warming scenario, the probability of drought is projected to quadruple in Brazil and China; double in Ethiopia and Ghana; reach greater than 90 per cent probability in Egypt; and nearly double in India.
In a 3 °C warming scenario, the probability of drought projected to be in Brazil and China is 30-40 per cent; 20-23 per cent in Ethiopia and Ghana; 14 per cent in India but nearly 100 per cent in Egypt.
Finally in a 4 °C warming scenario, the probability of drought projected in Brazil and China is nearly 50 per cent; 27-30 per cent in Ethiopia and Ghana; nearly 20 per cent in India; and 100 per cent in Egypt.
In most countries, the projected increase in drought probability increases approximately linearly with increasing temperature. The exception is Egypt, where even slight amounts of global warming potentially lead to large increases in drought probability.
Prof Rachel Warren, leader of the overall study of which this paper is one output, said: “Not only does the area exposed to drought increase with global warming, but it also increases the length of the droughts.
“In Brazil, China, Ethiopia, and Ghana droughts of longer than two years are projected to occur even in a 1.5 °C warming scenario.”
In a 2 °C warming scenario, the length of droughts projected in all countries (except India) are projected to exceed three years. In a 3 °C warming scenario, droughts are projected to approach 4–5 years in length and in a 4 °C warming scenario, severe droughts of longer than five years are projected for Brazil and China, with severe drought the new baseline condition.
Also, the percentage of land projected to be exposed to a severe drought of longer than 12 months in a 30-year period is expected to increase rapidly by the 1.5 °C warming scenario in Brazil, China and Egypt, and in areas of permanent snow and ice in India.
India and China both have large areas currently under ‘permanent’ ice and snow cover. However, in the 3 °C warming scenario, 90 per cent of these areas are projected to face severe droughts lasting longer than a year in a 30-year period.
These areas form the headwaters of many major river systems, and thus the water supply for millions of people downstream. Increasing probability and duration of severe drought points to potential declines in water storage in the Chinese Himalayas in the form of snow and ice.
Drought can have major impacts on biodiversity, agricultural yields and economies. This study indicates that all six of the countries will need to deal with water stress in the agricultural sector, potentially through shifting crop varieties or through irrigation, if water is available. The amount of adaptation required to cope with this increase in drought therefore increases rapidly with global warming.
Urban areas fare only slightly better and generally show the same pattern as above. Areas along rivers and streams or with reservoirs may fare better, depending on competition for water resources and headwater sources.
Prof Warren said: “Meeting the Paris Accords could have major benefits in terms of reducing severe drought risk in these six countries, in all major land cover classes and for large percentages of the population worldwide.
“This requires urgent global scale action now to stop deforestation (including in the Amazon) in this decade, and to decarbonize the energy system in this decade, so that we can reach global net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.”
‘Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming in six countries’, was published in Climatic Change on 28 September 2022. DOI : 10.1007/s10584-022-03359-2
JOURNAL
Climatic Change
DOI
METHOD OF RESEARCH
Data/statistical analysis
SUBJECT OF RESEARCH
Not applicable
ARTICLE TITLE
Quantification of meteorological drought risks between 1.5 °C and 4 °C of global warming in six countries
ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE
28-Sep-2022
“University of East Anglia” – say no more! We have all seen their lies before!
Aha! I thought I recognized that name from somewhere. Infamous for their propaganda, and getting caught at spreading it.
Yet, here they are, trying it again. Amazing.
Usually known as the University of Easy Access (for obvious reasons). It lost its physics department many years ago, but now has a department of creative writing (hence these climate articles)
S P A M !!
There is indeed widespread drought… which is then ended by exceptional rain events causing severe flooding.
Things are completely out of balance due to climate change.
See my post below
Griff, are you really claiming that global warming will increase drought and flooding? Presumably, the droughts will be wetter and the floods will be drier.
Quote:
“Hey there, Mr. Blue
We’re so pleased to be with you
Look around, see what you do
Droughts and floods are nothing new”
-Dr Jeff Lynne
You always don’t know the difference weather/climate.
Anything that supports the global warming narrative is climate.
Anything that doesn’t support the global warming narrative is weather.
What percentage of the world’s land surface has had widespread drought followed by exceptional rain events causing severe flooding? Certainly not in my part of the world.
That’s just how it works in the eastern part of Australia.
… as always. Remember, even if it rains the dams won’t fill. 🙂
IIRC the population of Ethiopia has doubled in the 38 years since the drought there instigated the Band Aid concert.
Something must have gone right in the meantime for the population increase to happen. Food supply must have increased markedly.
Maybe UEA could investigate as to why their predictions didn’t happen in Ethiopia.
Yes, Grifter, you are completely out of balance due to climate change…
Oh no! not out of balance, that sounds bad, like it might tipple topple over or sum fink.
A tipping point.
Of course we absolutely know the world is greening. That’s actually something that isn’t up for debate.
8 to 9 % of the world’s population is red-green color blind.
Gather round children … and quiet down in the back !
Now, in today’s “How to spot logical fallacies” lesson, can anyone tell me which one is on display here … anyone ? …
That’s right ! It’s a classic example of “Begging the question”, or petitio principii in Latin.
Now that’s settled, who can come up with the best example of an “Argument from authority”, or argument ad verecundiam, fallacy ? …
“Things are completely out of balance due to climate change.”
What things, griff. You didn’t say.
How would you know if they were balanced?
Do tell….
Exactly.
To claim a situation is “abnormal”, you have to be able to specify what the “normal” situation is.
As far as I know, no one has ever specified what “normal” is as applied to the many climates around the world.
(and of course, variations in conditions that fall within the specified “normal” standard).
To claim a situation is “abnormal”, you have to be able to specify what the “normal” situation is.
I’ve been asking griff to tell us that for quite some time. never have gotten an answer.
Let me save you much angst; you never will.
“Normal” is chaos. Per the IPCC.
Yes you’re right –
“a non-linear chaotic system” pretty well describes all the climates around the planet.
Hence, we should not be surprised/ alarmed at anything that occurs, so “normal” is an inapplicable descriptor.
Thank you for raising the IPCC’s rare contribution to climate comprehension.
And its reports, including AR6, show there has been no increase in the number, intensity and duration of extreme weather events for 100+years.
He was looking in a mirror.
Yes, fretslider. I was going to ask Griff:
So, so you think you can tell
Heaven from hell?
Blue skies from pain?
Can you tell a green field
From a cold steel rail?
A smile from a veil?
Do you think you can tell?
And all this while the models start with an assumption of constant relative humidity.
The Carboniferous was hot humid and lush.
Cold areas and ice ages bring desert conditions.
Griff you are mentally retarded. Even the IPCC claims no trends in precipitation.
Hmm… Dry then not dry. Isn’t that balanced?
And once again griff pops up to repeat the lies that things that are completely normal are going to kill us and are caused by CO2.
I see the problem. You really were born yesterday and don’t read history. To you droughts followed by rains, hot spells, colds spells, fires, wind and lightning are all new events that never happened before. Sad.
we suffer from too much information. People think things are ‘worse than ever’ because they get a constant feed of negativity from the internet. Whenever there’s a flood anywhere in the world that wouldn’t have even be noted in the news pre-smartphone now gets immediate attention.
Still pushing the stable climate myth,Grifter?
More arrant rubbish from griff.
She seems to live in a little fantasy world.
Please cite Grimm Bros when you post such nonsense.
Except there is no trend in drought or flooding, but there is increasing water stored on land. https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1704665115
“ Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change.”
Another evidence/fact free statement which is normally called an opinion which many will think is stupid.
Climate Change made you science illiterate like that opinion Griffy?
Now that post is funny 🙂
Out of balance griffy .
The theory of climate change and it is an unproven theory is that rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere will lead to catastrophic warming .
The second part of the theory is that a warmer atmosphere will hold more water vapour and lead to runaway global warming .
There is no way that an atmosphere holding more water vapour can or will lead to more droughts.
CO2 is not the control button of the weather systems .
It is a well known fact that the effect of CO2 on warming is logarithmic and the level has almost been reached that any more CO2 added to the atmosphere will have little or no effect from now on.
Data please.
Since the IPCC works on averages, that means everything is average, when you average them
Thanks for that
It appears to me, Griff, that you are at the front of the list of things out of balance. Unless you are having us on, of course.
A favorite quote from the IPCC reports:
IPCC AR4 Chapter 10 Page 750
Mean Precipitation
For a future warmer climate, the current generation of models indicates that precipitation generally increases in the areas of regional tropical precipitation maxima (such as the monsoon regimes) and over the tropical Pacific in particular, with general decreases in the subtropics, and increases at high latitudes as a consequence of a general intensification of the global hydrological cycle. Globally averaged mean water vapour, evaporation and precipitation are projected to increase.
That’s hardly a recipe for increased drought.
Yeah, Steve. But today is a Wednesday, and the story changes on Wednesdays.
The “Climate Emergency” narrative is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you are going to get.
(Apologies to Forest Gump)
More from IPCC’s report Chapter 10
Thus, from this category of coarser-grid models that can only represent rudimentary aspects of tropical cyclones, there is no consistent evidence for large changes in either frequency or intensity of these models’ representation of tropical cyclones.
A synthesis of the model results to date indicates that, for a future warmer climate, coarse-resolution models show few consistent changes in tropical cyclones, with results dependent on the model, although those models do show a consistent increase in precipitation intensity in future storms.
The UEA has things backwards. Droughts cause high temperatures because less of the incoming solar energy is needed for evaporation and hence more goes into increasing the temperature.
As the IPCC says, as quoted by Steve Case, higher temperatures lead to more precipitation, not less. So, as usual, Earth’s climate runs on self-correcting patterns – or in IPCC parlance, negative feedbacks.
Agreed.
And according to R Pielke, Jr’s Oct 2021 assessment of the IPCC AR6 SPM:
there is medium confidence (50:50 chance) of there being both detection & attribution
(ie, man added CO2 causing some %) of heavy precipitation, but not flooding. And medium confidence of only 1 of 3 types of drought (think “soil moisture”).
https://youtu.be/4wamPyDhwEY
So, there is still no observational evidence of a “crisis”.
Funny thing is that Climate Change is also apparently resonsible for heavier than usual rain here in eastern Australia. A very versatile process this climate change, we should get us some.
Global Warming gave them only one hammer – temperature. Climate Change is more inspiring, you can blame it for hot summers, cold winters, hail, rain, drought, flooding, tornadoes, …
Ah! The infamous University of Easy Access…
“We pioneered the teaching of Creative Writing in the United Kingdom and in 2020 we celebrated 50 years of teaching it. “
https://www.uea.ac.uk/about/school-of-literature-drama-and-creative-writing/creative-writing
“In a n degree C warming scenario…” (why didn’t they model a pause?)
Here’s an observation for UEA. Yes, we had a couple of hot days in the summer, and now?
Last night it was 6 C and very wet. I actually lit a fire in the fireplace – with coal, yes – and we got in touch with our ancestral selves rather than put the heating on.
Not everybody these days can do that. Gummer must really hate me!
Meanwhile, in the land of droughts and flooding rains there is more flooding rains and flooding, crop yields are hitting records and the latest downpours give much hope for a bright farming future in Australia.
Something to do with a recent underwater volcano erupting has added to the weather conditions now underway.
Oh no, please don’t mention the volcano, expect an eruption of papers claiming that without it Australia would now be on fire.
As you probably know, long before white settlement from January 1788 Australian Aborigines had developed their now traditional seasonal burning in patches when weather conditions and prevailing winds were suitable.
They learnt from the regular bushfires since the rain forested land became hotter and drier and eucalyptus replaced the rainforests, today rainforest covers about 3 per cent of Australia.
Bill Gammage’s book “The Biggest Estate On Earth” describes in detail how the practice of burning off sections of bushland was an essential tactic for flushing out game animals for food.
What?!?
I’m suing the Climate Scientists™ for the whiplash damage to my neck.
–
I thought there were supposed to be more floods. Now they are saying more droughts?
‘C-aahbon’ was supposed to heat up the ocean and evaporate more water, water vapor being the main greenhouse gas. That would set off a runaway positive feedback loop that would heat things more and evaporate more water as well as melting the poles.
–
But that would require all that added water vapor to stay in the air and not fall as rain. And the sea levels should drop as the melted ice from the poles is evaporated, too. Yet sea levels are supposed to rise.
–
“I’m so confused.”
~Vinnie Barbarino”
–
–
“I think they are just making stuff up.”
~H.R.
““I’m so confused.””
It all comes under the heading of “climate change”
And climate now changes on a daily basis.
It has become so changeable they have come up with a name for this daily Climate Change situation. The name is ‘weather’
The climate this afternoon is markedly different from the climate we had this morning…..
That’s the thing with Climate, or weather as we must now refer to it, it’s changeable 🙂
Interesting how they pick many countries with historically significant drought histories. Then they pick a recent time of consecutive La Niña patterns which are known for extreme droughts and floods which the world is experiencing.
Seems like weather patterns to me.
It’s called cherrypicking.
Since these models can’t hindcast precipitation, it’s amazing that anyone thinks they have predictive power. All of these scientists should be defunded and given Pinochet helicopter rides.
There must have been a joyous celebration when the computer spit out all this wonderful information confirming their biases. OMG, it’s worse than we thought”.
BIBO – Bias In Bias Out.
IF IT’S TRUE, all the more reason to build out the fossil fuel infrastructure for those regions so the people can adapt.
Models programmed to get an extreme outcome for entirely political reasons.
Why else would they use +4 deg. C? Who actually thinks that could ever be possible?
Empirical and historical evidence shows that drought increases in colder climates.
We live on a planet that’s 70% covered by water. If you want to best transport that moisture so that it falls on land areas, increase evaporation and precipitable water. An increase of 1 deg. C has increased the amount of water vapor that the air can hold by 7%.
They could make a case that those warmer temps would increase extreme rain events and blame that on climate change but this is junk science using models to be used for politics not authentic science.
Interesting graph – Fraction of the Globe in Drought: 1982-2012
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/05/22/interesting-graph-fraction-of-the-globe-in-drought-1982-2012/
“Who actually thinks that could ever be possible?”
EXACTLY!
In searching the paper with “probabilit”, they NEVER even mentioned or
calculated the odds of each of the 1.5C-4C events even occurring. With the
actual global temperature rising ~ 1C/century, the odds must be very, very
low for 4C!
the difference in evaporation between 75 and 79 is barely measurable … it certainly can’t lead to a drought …
What is actually meant by “For example, with 3 °C warming, more than 50 per cent of the agricultural area in each country is projected to be exposed to severe droughts lasting longer than one year in a 30-year period.”
Less than 50 per cent of agricultural area will not be be exposed to severe droughts?
Nominating a 30 year period is meaningless without specifying what percentage of the time is spent in drought. A drought of longer than one year is not unusual for many areas of Australia, in fact if 30 years is taken as one generation of a farming family, there would be few farmers that have not experienced such drought.
Take a look at this chart and determine if drought conditions in Australia are increasing or not over the period 1890 to present time.
https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/static/posters/RainfallPoster.pdf
Thanks for the chart!
“The study shows even a modest temperature increase of 1.5°C will spell serious consequences in India, China, Ethiopia, Ghana, Brazil and Egypt.”
It’s clear there are no poker players among the climate science-lite minions! The big ‘tell’ here is the obvious walkback on serious warming in this statement. Yeah, oh yeah, things are going to be real bad snyway, even though warming has pretty well run its course.
Ahh stop it. Everybody knows, everybody, that it’s going to get wetter, because for years you’ve be telling us that.
I have a bin where we can stash stuff like this. Pick up is Friday.
Newsflash: Rising global temperatures point to widespread flooding.
Confirmation bias coupled with gross assumptions estimates feed biased models without establishing any factual temperature increases without severe urban heat index (UHI) influences.
UEA following their bizarre ‘all warming leads to droughts, unless it leads to flooding’ beliefs.
In the standard “boilerplate” at the start of the paper :
Between August 2020 and acceptance the AR6 reports came out, especially the “Working Group One (WG-I)” contribution, titled “The Physical Science Basis“.
A major factor in “meteorological droughts” is “precipitation changes”, so the ability of climate models to reliably “hindcast” those changes with a regional granularity would be useful.
In Box SPM.1.2 (a paragraph in “Box SPM.1 : Scenarios, Climate Model and Projections”), on page 12 :
Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. [ Evil grin over Lofty’s shoulder … ]
– – – – –
Which specific countries are the ATL article’s paper worried about again ?
And where does the IPCC “expect” drought to get worse in a warming world ?
They helpfully provide a map in “FAQ 8.3, Figure 1” (on page 1159, see attached screenshot below).
Brazil and Egypt OK, but for the other four the paper goes against “the consensus position” established in 2021 … around a year after they submitted their paper.
If they just took a look around England, like I do with my little flock of Wunderground stations:
For the last 20 years, the Western Side of England has been cooling
For the same period, the Eastern side has been warming
Yet strangely, and it really is a bit odd, both sides of the country are showing an increase in rainfall – as best I can ascertain, of about +10mm per year
Certainly for the warmer (eastern) side, that is quite something because. average annual rainfall for the east is about half that of the western side..
And anyway, since when did wild and idle speculation become classed as ‘Research’
These folks are all frauds and scammers.
If heat causes drought then why are all the rain forests on the equator where the sun’s heat is the strongest, and not just for a season but all year round? And what about the McMurdo Dry Valleys in East Antarctica?
Check out the bizarre title of this paper showing a large increase in water stored on land. Something is wrong in climate science.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1704665115
“ Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change.”
So one paper will claim that storms will bring more rainfall and last longer and another claims droughts will be more frequent and last longer. So what is the deciding factor on which parts of the world get more water and which parts get less? And how does manmade CO2 cause both? It’s almost as if the whole climate change thing is an irrational argument that just wants people to believe that subjectively bad things will happen more often and subjectively good things will happen less frequently somehow.
And what about nice sunny days with puffy white clouds and a breeze with a temperature somewhere around 75F? Who’s tracking those?
Basically there is no consensus on ‘climate science’ whatsoever. Every damned idjit with a mickey mouse degree from the university of nobody cares writes a paper saying any bloody fool thing they like because everybody else is doing exactly the same thing. You get a thousand different studies saying 1000 different things but because some have your name on them, it enhances your academic credentials – it’s all about quantity, not quality.
In four fictional scenarios in game software programs, there may be drought. In the real world, using actual data, neither temperatures nor rainfall are out of the ordinary: “https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/gl_Precipitation-Monthly.php” and “https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/”
Professor Warren – another addition to the dead head list.
Maybe I’m overlooking something here, but if rising temperatures will lead to worse droughts and a drop in agricultural production which will cause increased famines and declining populations, isn’t that a good thing? I mean the environmental extremists are always telling us the planet is becoming overcrowded and large numbers of people are unsustainable, so less food means fewer people— a good thing— as long as it’s not the extremists and their families that are affected.
And I had just read
“1) Heavy Precipitation
It is generally accepted, and emphasised by the IPCC, that globally precipitation has increased since 1950, and this is recognised by the new paper:”
on
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2022/09/28/climate-scientists-want-to-ban-dissenting-views/
Do your research in/on foreign countries.
In the late 1800’s, the various Temperance leagues/The Anti-Saloon league etc ‘quoted’ stories from overseas, knowing full well that few if any would bother to check things out for themselves.
Nothing new here.
All very nice, you guys from UEA, a school discredited by proper scientists after Climategate, but there are substantial parts of the world that are not heating according to the satellite-based data from UAH, a university proud of its medallists for their seminal work on the method.
Here is the UAH data over Australia. Chances are that September 2022 will show another drop on release in a couple of days. If so, that will make 10 years and 2 months of no upward linear trend.
Geoff S
http://www.geoffstuff.com/uahaug2022.jpg
There’s a big problem with this story – warmer temperatures will increase evaporation over the oceans, which will be transferred to land by winds. Once over land, it will fall as rain and snow – hence, I would expect less drought, not more.
We should take away their computers and make them farm with horse and plow – then they may appreciate the benefits of fossil fuels.
University of East Anglia? If memory serves me correctly, that’s where Climategate originated.
They must have been well funded due to that. Still publishing rubbish.