TS/Hurricane Ian -LIVE RADAR VIDEO FEED

This live and real-time radar stream is coming directly from the National Weather Service WSR-88D NEXRAD network and is provided as a free public service of The Heartland Institute and WUWT.

It features a 3D view of south Florida and it will constantly update with new radar data and storm track, as well as the position of Ian. As the storm progresses, the radar view may switch to different locations.

Periodically, and as the situation changes, different views may be displayed. You may share this feed freely on any social media!

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ASTONERII
September 27, 2022 1:34 pm

So, the current forecast for the power of the storm is expected to top out at category 3 or is there better forecasting with different information?

Prjindigo
Reply to  ASTONERII
September 27, 2022 2:25 pm

millibars have stopped dropping at around 952, winds are compressing the main body from the west and the outbound streaming weather is screaming up the coast being slowly driven by a front across the entire continent. Florida has been under cloud cover for more than 24 hours now and there will be NO energy input from the land, likely shortly after nightfall the flora will start dragging Ian into a wobble with cooler/cold input air.

I doubt Ian’s gonna be more than base 2 and dropping when the eye hits land. Irma didn’t like Florida’s west coast either.

in any way it’s too many inputs for the system to predict it reliably so they’re using a “rubber stamp play list” prediction system

Last edited 2 months ago by prjndigo
ASTONERII
Reply to  Prjindigo
September 27, 2022 3:16 pm

Wow, you seem well informed on this. Hope your not in the target area. Thanks!

Prjindigo
Reply to  ASTONERII
September 28, 2022 4:02 am

I’m literally the target path. My Southern Live Oak shrugged off Irma.

Garboard
Reply to  Prjindigo
September 28, 2022 6:12 am

Live oaks are amazingly tough trees

Bryan A
Reply to  Garboard
September 28, 2022 6:31 am

The press is now calling this a Cat5 storm. None of the wind monitors I can find indicate 155MPH wind speeds at ground level. Where are they measuring these?

ATheoK
Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 7:59 am

I believe NOAA and NHC use satellite estimates.

I think they estimate pressure which allows them to estimate wind speeds.
One delusion supports another delusion.

It is also why they name small low pressure depressions.

Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 10:14 am

This morning NOAA forecasted a low end Cat 4 landfall. The idea it is Cat5 is crazy talk.

Duker
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
September 28, 2022 4:45 pm

Yes. It would be massive destruction already if Cat 5 on landfall

MarkW
Reply to  Bryan A
September 29, 2022 12:45 pm

I don’t know who you are listening to. The stations that I’ve been monitoring have been calling it a strong Cat 4 storm. A few have mentioned that it is close to being a 5 and MIGHT become a 5.

rah
Reply to  Garboard
September 29, 2022 10:16 am

Cross grain. That is why the main structural elements, including the knee braces, of the USS Constitution were made of that wood. The bulky pieces cut from huge trees so the grain did not run along the long axis of each structural member.

Dusty
Reply to  Prjindigo
September 27, 2022 4:48 pm

Any idea whether Ian will cross over to the Atlantic? That easterly wind pattern above it seems pretty strong. I don’t understand why it wouldn’t take the path of least resistance and run parallel to it instead of forcing its way north into it.

Jtom
Reply to  Dusty
September 27, 2022 7:55 pm

Current thought at NHC is that it will enter the Atlantic as a TS around Jacksonville and hug the east coast up to the Carolinas.

MarkW
Reply to  Jtom
September 29, 2022 12:47 pm

If it hugs the coast, there won’t be much chance for it to strengthen.

ATheoK
Reply to  Prjindigo
September 27, 2022 9:05 pm

Joe Bastardi pointed out that NHC had the hurricane’s pressure dropping while over Cuba.

“Come on NHC. You really think the pressure fell over Cuba?

from the satellite site at 8 am after over land for 5 hours”The minimum central pressure was 950 mb”.

I would be shocked if recon finds it that low once north of Cuba ( until out over the gulf for several hours)”

a) Currently Ian has dry air all along it’s Western side, not conducive to hurricane strengthening.
b) Hurricane Ian will encounter Florida land just as it leaves Cuba’s influence. Also, not conducive to hurricane strengthening.
c) Hurricane Ian’s eye is huge, lopsided and unbalanced. Not conducive to hurricane strengthening.

I agree with your assessment Prjindigo!
comment image

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FdtmjeZXwAAIX6-?format=jpg&name=large

Last edited 2 months ago by ATheoK
Duane
Reply to  ATheoK
September 28, 2022 6:14 am

Gee all those things you cite as “not conducive to strengthening” – but Ian most definitely strengthened by a huge helluva lot – current sustained windspeeds at 155-160 mph (higher at altitude – the 155 mph represents estimated wind speed at sea level, as measured by sensors dropped from hurricane hunter aircraft as it passed from eye over the eyewall) and gusts over 190 mph. Still hasn’t contacted land yet. The practical difference between a Cat 4 at 155 and a Cat 5 at 157 is nil, whether the storm reaches Cat 5 or not.

Last edited 2 months ago by Duane
Bryan A
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 6:33 am

Where (what altitude) are those sustained wind speeds measured? I find no ground level measurements exceeding 107-116 MPH

ATheoK
Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 8:09 am

Not measured.
I believe the wind estimates are for 10 meters, but are estimated from satellite measurements. Sure sounds like they use a climate model algorithm for estimating storms.

Duane
Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 8:33 am

At whatever altitude the aircraft flies, which was not reported by NHC. The instruments are dropped and report measurements all the way down. The aircraft isn’t the point of measurement.

Local Doppler radar here in Fort Myers reported 168 mph sustained in the east quadrant of the eyewall within the last 30 seconds. Higher speeds were measured by the hurricane hunter aircraft in the northwest quadrant.

Eye appears to be heading right over my home in the next 2-3 hours.

Last edited 2 months ago by Duane
Richard Page
Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 9:22 am

The hurricane hunters usually fly no lower than 10,000 ft. so between about a third to half the height of the storm.

Richard Page
Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 9:34 am

Hurricane hunters usually fly at about 10,000 ft. and the highest wind speed registered at that altitude was about 168 mph yesterday. Todays highest speed at altitude was 155mph and is expected to drop rapidly as soon as it makes landfall. I have no idea what those speeds translate to at ground level though – all the data I’ve seen has been gathered at an altitude of about 10,000 ft.

ATheoK
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 7:59 am

Nope!

Impossible for a hurricane to reach Cat 5 when it’s weather system is severely impacted by land and poor atmosphere (dry air) surroundings.

NOAA and NHC are hyping the storm into unbelievability.

Ian is a small powerful storm. Category 3 is no joke and very dangerous. It’s eyewall winds are tornadic in strength.

NHC and NOAA should be satisfied with reporting storm systems accurately.

Last edited 2 months ago by ATheoK
Duane
Reply to  ATheoK
September 28, 2022 8:36 am

Reality says otherwise. Local Doppler radar just reported 168 mph sustained in the east quadrant which is now within 20 miles of the Gulf shore at Sanibel.

This is a Cat 5 storm, and I’m living in it right now, so don’t bullshit me by saying it can’t be. It is.

DonM
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 9:18 am

you have zero credibility.

It doesn’t matter what you say.

you have zero credibility.

you have zero credibility.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 9:55 am

If you’re claiming Cat 5, you’re saying that basically there will be no structures or trees standing after it passes. That’s what it means, total devastation. Is this a hill you want to die on?

Bryan A
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 10:46 am

If you’re “living in it right now” then you are obviously one of “Those Fools” who don’t leave when their life is threatened by a “Cat 5 storm”. Or the storm truly is not a Cat 5 as reported.
So, is it less than a Cat 5…or…are you a fool?

Duker
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 4:48 pm

Your place would be matchwood at Cat 5 . yet here you are

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Duane
September 29, 2022 12:30 pm

This is a Cat 5 storm, and I’m living in it right now

Except you’re not. The National Hurricane Centred have said it’s a CAT 4 when it hit landfall. You’re the bullshitter Duane
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/hurricane-ian-live-updates-rcna49729

Scott E.
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 1:13 pm

I’ve been watching The Weather Channel’s reporting since the start. No land station in the path of the eye has reported sustained winds of over 65mph which is not even technically a hurricane. Highest gust I saw reported was 126 with most being around 100-110. Yet their graphic show winds of 155, high Category 4. I wouldn’t want to be in it, but this is just hype and scare tactics.

Duker
Reply to  Scott E.
September 28, 2022 4:54 pm

Science seems to be there , but its hyped
https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/guide-understanding-satellite-images-of-hurricanes

It seems a Cat 5 would have a well defined eye.
And the colours in the images are counter intuitive , as red is cooler and blue is warmest .
But ignored when its a scary narrative told in news broadcast

MarkW
Reply to  Scott E.
September 29, 2022 12:58 pm

THe strength of the hurricane is determined by the speed of winds in the eyewall. None of the stations that you are seeing are located in the eyewall.

Robert B
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 2:49 pm

We had a Cat 5 cyclone in Australia that quickly dropped to Cat 2 after landfall – before it got past the beach. No actual wind measurements above Cat 2.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  ATheoK
September 28, 2022 6:56 am

So Cat5 is basically used to gen up ratings and get residents moving. Have Floridians adapted with better information inputs in recent years?

Duane
Reply to  ResourceGuy
September 28, 2022 8:37 am

Data are data. Ignoring the data is exactly what you guys accuse the warmunists of doing.

ResourceGuy
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 11:02 am

My comment was based on Bastardi, not some unrelated things you refer to as “what you guys accuse”.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Duane
September 29, 2022 12:33 pm

And the data says it’s a cat 4.

Pillage Idiot
Reply to  Prjindigo
September 27, 2022 9:19 pm

“in any way it’s too many inputs for the system to predict it reliably so they’re using a “rubber stamp play list” prediction system”

Ah, so they are using the same type of forecasting tools that they use for their global warming models!

rah
Reply to  Prjindigo
September 27, 2022 10:25 pm

According to Levi Cowen it looked like Ian would be going through an eye wall replacement cycle tonight. From what I have seen before pressures usually remain static or increase a bit as the core of the cyclone expands during such a transition. But that does not mean the pressure will not drop more when the cycle is complete. It is wait and see.

Last edited 2 months ago by rah
Duane
Reply to  Prjindigo
September 28, 2022 6:32 am

Eye pressure was down to 937 mb as of 8 am, direct measurement. Of course once it landfalls the winds will decrease, but as of right now, no signs of any slowing and in fact it has accelerated to 155 mph sustained winds at sea level via direct measurement by hurricane hunter aircraft flying through and over the eyewall as of 8 am, when just around 60 miles from landfall, moving at only 10 mph. It may strengthen more, or it may weaken, or it may wobble some too. Landfall expected by early to mid afternoon unless it slows more.

Last edited 2 months ago by Duane
Duane
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 8:39 am

What kimd of ignorant asshole down votes a factual incontrovertible statement of measured data? Only koolaid drinkers and cranks, that’s who.

SMH

eyesonu
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 9:23 am

Duane, you are totally losing it!

After reading your comments up to this time I thought I would help you out. I gave you a big down vote. While I am honorary bonafide and recognized ASSHOLE you will never acquire the merits for its membership.

Richard Page
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 9:39 am

The kind of ignorant asshole that goes and does their own research rather than listening to you and comes up with slightly different ‘factual’ ‘incontrovertable’ statement of measured data from the US National Hurricane Center, that’s who.

Last edited 2 months ago by Richard Page
Reply to  Richard Page
September 28, 2022 10:07 am
000
WTNT44 KNHC 281458
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092022
1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data was absolutely
critical this morning in diagnosing the rapid intensification of
Ian, despite both planes undergoing multiple eyewall penetrations
experiencing severe turbulence.  That data supported an intensity of 
about 135 kt a few hours ago.  Since that time, high-resolution
Tampa Doppler radar data has been sampling the eyewall near 10,000 
ft with winds up to 155 kt, indicating that Ian is on the threshold 
of category 5 status.  The maximum winds are set to 135 kt on this 
advisory.

Are you gonna say sorry to Duane?

eyesonu
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 28, 2022 10:29 am

I read that as 10,000 ft. I’ll keep my head at about 6’0″ so it doesn’t blow my hat off.

bdgwx
Reply to  eyesonu
September 29, 2022 10:01 am

eyesonu said: “I read that as 10,000 ft. I’ll keep my head at about 6’0″ so it doesn’t blow my hat off.”

That’s for the 155 kts figure. The 135 kts figure is a surface measurement and is actually rounded down from the NOAA2 and AF301 reported value of 137 kts.

Richard Page
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 28, 2022 12:13 pm

Nope. As I made perfectly clear, these readings are by Hurricane Hunter aircraft at altitude, typically 10,000 ft. not at ground level which would be typically far less. Duane was citing them as being at ground level, which is impossible under the present circumstances. If you and Duane had bothered to read up on what the hurricane hunter’s WP-3D Orion’s have been doing then you’d both have come to the same conclusion.

PaulID
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 28, 2022 12:15 pm

No need to appoligize you just showed what everyone was pointing out to him what you are quoting is an extrapolation not a direct measurement try again.

bdgwx
Reply to  PaulID
September 29, 2022 9:59 am

Richard Page said: “Nope. As I made perfectly clear, these readings are by Hurricane Hunter aircraft at altitude, typically 10,000 ft. not at ground level which would be typically far less.”

PaulD said: “No need to appoligize you just showed what everyone was pointing out to him what you are quoting is an extrapolation not a direct measurement try again.”

Patenly False. SFMR is a measurement at the surface. NOAA2 and AF301 both measured 137 kts at the surface. That’s not flight level winds. That is surface winds. The flight level winds were 155 kts which is consistent with the vertical profile of eye wall winds in strong hurricanes.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Leo Smith
September 29, 2022 12:35 pm

No one needs to say sorry to Duane. It was a CAT 4 when it made landfall.

bdgwx
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
September 29, 2022 1:16 pm

Andrew Wilkins said: “It was a CAT 4 when it made landfall.”

Thank You! Now let’s see if we can work together to convince the rest of the WUWT audience of that.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 1:46 pm

Can you convince Duane that it wasn’t a CAT 5? Now you admit it was a CAT 4 you might be able to get Duane to eat humble pie.

bdgwx
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
September 29, 2022 2:56 pm

Andrew Wilkins said: “Can you convince Duane that it wasn’t a CAT 5?”

Probably not. I’m not sure it wasn’t a category 5 at peak intensity myself. Both NOAA2 and AF301 measured 137 kts (158 mph) winds at the surface in the western eye wall prior to landfall. That’s technically a category 5 and is consistent with the WSR-88D measurements of 175+ kts at 10,000 ft during that time. And although it is unlikely I cannot eliminate the possibility that the NHC will upgrade the intensity as part of their full assessment.

BTW…there’s a good chance the NHC will downgrade the official landfall intensity. AF307 only measured 121 kts (140 mph) at the surface during landfall.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
Robert W Turner
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 2:56 pm

I’m pretty sure it was upgrey’d to a cat 29 with sustained winds measured at 4,200 miles per second.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Robert W Turner
September 29, 2022 12:36 pm

Al Gore, Duane, and Griff told me it was a CAT 1 000 000

janice baker
Reply to  Prjindigo
September 29, 2022 8:56 am

thought cat 4 uprooted most trees and blew out most windows. press photos of Naples show flooding from storm surge, but not that much wind damage. Am i missing or misunderstanding something

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  janice baker
September 29, 2022 9:30 am

No, you pretty much got it.

Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage, with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

For Category 5:

The highest hurricane category – A large percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Abstracted from the narrative descriptions of the Saffir-Simpson Scale.

bdgwx
Reply to  janice baker
September 29, 2022 9:49 am

Hurricane categories are based on wind speeds; not damage. FWIW though there are plenty of uprooted trees and blown out windows. That’s the least of the damage though. Just look at the pictures this morning. It is going to rank among the most costly hurricanes in US history.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 12:41 pm

It’ll be one of the most costly because as time has gone by over the years the local human population and its accompanying infrastructure has ballooned. This is nothing to do with climate change.
Oh, and that growing population has been supported by marvellous fossil fuel products.

bdgwx
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
September 29, 2022 1:14 pm

Who said anything about climate change? I’m only trying to debunk the claims that Ian wasn’t a major hurricane, or a hurricane at all, and that the damages are limited to a few uprooted trees and blown out windows.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 1:44 pm

Rubbish – you’re doing your usual thing of using totally normal weather events as evidence of dangerous CAGW. Stop trying to wheedle out of it.

bdgwx
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
September 29, 2022 2:49 pm

I think you have me confused with someone else. I’ve not discussed climate change at all in this article.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 4:14 pm

So CAGW has nothing to do with this storm. Yes?

bdgwx
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
September 29, 2022 5:24 pm

No. And if you’ve tracked any of my posts on WUWT you know I don’t advocate for or defend CAGW or other kinds of doom-and-gloom civilization ending alarmist hype.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  bdgwx
October 3, 2022 4:17 pm

Yeah, right…..

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  bdgwx
September 30, 2022 9:35 am

No, it’s about damage. The wind speeds are correlated to the damage, not the other way around.

bdgwx
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
September 30, 2022 12:16 pm

Nope. The Saffir-Simpson scale is based on wind speed; not damage. Don’t confuse the Saffir-Simpson scale which is based on wind speed with the Enchance Fujita scale which is based damage. The former is for hurricanes. The later is for tornadoes.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
Lance Wallace
September 27, 2022 1:51 pm

Right now (1:50 PM PDT), it looks like it is right on top of Key West.

Robert W Turner
Reply to  Lance Wallace
September 28, 2022 2:58 pm

No it was Caye East.

Lance Wallace
September 27, 2022 1:54 pm

Whoops, correction, it’s the back end only above key West, seems to be hitting the shore up and down as far as Tampa Bay

David Lawrence
September 27, 2022 2:40 pm
DonM
Reply to  David Lawrence
September 27, 2022 3:47 pm

what’s going on with the other swirly at 14 N; 35 W

Bryan A
Reply to  David Lawrence
September 27, 2022 7:21 pm

Interestingly earth.nullschool also shows sustained surface wind speeds of 77MPH

Richard Page
Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 12:18 pm

Doesn’t surprise me, ground speed and air speed (I mean at higher altitude – 3,000 ft. and up) are likely to be very different. If the ground speed has slowed to 77mph, I wonder by how much the air speed has slowed.

September 27, 2022 2:46 pm

Frozen-in-time at 5:27 PM Tuesday (for historical purposes) Level II RADAR image from Key West WSR-88D:

KBYX_20220927_212700_BREF_gray.png
Chaswarnertoo
September 27, 2022 3:00 pm

Hurricane Ian? Does it have a nasal whine and it’s a bit up itself?

Paul Hurley (aka PaulH)
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
September 27, 2022 4:01 pm

September 27, 2022 3:33 pm

Locking in an early vis sat image of the Gulf and Ian too at 6:17PM EDT Tuesday:

20220927_221736_GLF.jpg
John K. Sutherland
September 27, 2022 3:41 pm
Bryan A
Reply to  John K. Sutherland
September 27, 2022 7:26 pm

That makes it currently barely a Cat1

Duane
Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 6:17 am

Utter bullshit. Cat 4 with sustained 155 mph winds at sea level as directly measured by sensors dropped from the hurricane hunter aircraft this morning as it passed over the eyewall. Landfall not projected until the afternoon so further strengthening is possible.

Bryan A
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 6:36 am

Then NOT at the surface where winds affect human infrastructure but up in the air where it has little effect

Duane
Reply to  Bryan A
September 28, 2022 8:41 am

Wow you are an ignorant son of a bitch. At the surface doofus!

Richard Page
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 9:44 am

Not at the surface – NHC states that the data is taken at altitude, that being around 10,000 ft. which is the altitude most hurricane hunter aircraft fly through them. Did you not bother to read the NHC reports from the hurricane hunters?

Bryan A
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 10:57 am

Nice language SFB…
Still not finding any direct surface measurements (buoys or WX stations) above 121knots

Last edited 2 months ago by Bryan A
Duane
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 8:40 am

As of 5 minutes ago, cat 5 with 160+ sustained wind speed in the eastern eyewall by local Doppler radar.

eyesonu
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 10:33 am

That’s enough to blow your hat off and twist your panties if you were in a balloon at 10,000 ft. Need to stay closer to the ground!

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Duane
September 29, 2022 12:46 pm

CAT 4 when it made landfall.

Joel O'Bryan
September 27, 2022 4:00 pm

Goes East Sandwich RGB animation is the best, near-real time visualization I have found for these Wx events. It’s about on a 20 minute refresh delay (time to the next satellite image) though, so the satellite views are not as current as the Nexrad radar view which is about 5-7 minute delay.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=Sandwich&length=24

attached is the latest RGB Sandwich shot from 18:51 EDT.

GOES-East_Sandwich.jpg
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
September 27, 2022 4:42 pm

I dunno … I’m kinda old-school and prefer the unadulterated visible image, preferring to see the shadows cast by towering Cumulus on sat images …

I cut my teeth on weather watching an old-school wx forecaster named Harald Taft (who was trained in wx during WW2) who worked at KXAS CH 5 in the DFW (Dallas-Ft. Worth) TeeVee market. When sat images first became available to broadcasters he made sure to point out those kinds of ‘small’ details that would show up on that imagery at that time.

Last edited 2 months ago by _Jim
Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  _Jim
September 27, 2022 4:49 pm

Yeah, but visible sat image don’t work at night. In the multiwave length IR band RGB Sandwich view it is also easy to see the sunlit terminator line move across as the visible image of the composite disappears.

Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
September 27, 2022 5:15 pm

re: “Yeah, but visible sat image don’t work at night.”

SMH. Of course not. Reductio ad absurdum (NOTE I did say I “prefer the unadulterated visible image”.) I’ll also point out the other various wavelengths that allow such things as WV (water vapor) to be observed at various heights as well, besides the usual longwave IR.

A comprehensive list of products using different wavelengths (some subtractive, others additive) can be seen and selected here for presentation: http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/

Rud Istvan
September 27, 2022 5:02 pm

Well, Ian is NOT good. We live in Fort Lauderdale on the northern ocean beach.
For the first time ever, we just got a second TV official tornado warning based on Doppler radar ‘hooks’. Not ever during past biggest Irma. And Ian is still SW off Key West, hundreds of miles to our south east. These suspected tornados are in the outermost ‘comma’ rain band to the NE of Ian.

OTH, we have had heavy bands of wind and rain from the extreme outer NE bands since before this morning at dawn. My shoes are soaked from walking the dog under the wind buffeted umbrella in the dog walk sheltered from the wind. Heck, so am I.And we have lightning just off the coast now.

Rud Istvan
Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 27, 2022 5:25 pm

OK. The winds subsided, but the rain just increased massively. Pouring buckets.

Pillage Idiot
Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 27, 2022 9:22 pm

Stay safe, Rud!

Barnes Moore
Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 28, 2022 8:15 am

What’s it like now? I am in Fernandina Beach and the wind is maybe 25 with gusts into the 30’s. Rain is not expected until this afternoon. Waiting and watching to see how it wobbles – and hopefully weakens.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 28, 2022 10:10 am

It wont last.

Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 28, 2022 3:44 am

Rud

stay safe

starzmom
Reply to  Rud Istvan
September 28, 2022 7:08 am

Do stay safe out there.

Joel O'Bryan
September 27, 2022 5:08 pm

As for the intensification that Ian underwent about 24 hours ago, it can be see that this intensification precisely correlated with a minor to moderate Geomagnetic storm conditions that started and ran for about 8-12 hours then. Currently as I write this, the station K-index values and the estimated Kp values are coming back down now and with them Ian has stabilized as a Cat 3 with central presssure of ~950mb (or so) since about 0800 GMT.

If K-index values continue to fall,Ian will not strengthen further. If they rise again, then Ian will strengthen again. The Kp geomagnetic conditions (measured at terrestrial ground stations) are driven by changes in the solar wind, which itself NASA/NOAA measures at the L1 orbit point (1 million miles from Earth) by the DSCVR satellite sensors. These Solar Wind conditions changes are best seen in the Solar Wind speed increases and Bz GSM (in nanoTeslas) changes.

Compare this shot of Ian’s intensification from about 24 hours ago (attached as an image from the WeatherUnderground site) to the NOAA Real Time Solar Wind speeds and Bt/Bz changes at this URL:
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

Ian_intensification.jpg
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
September 27, 2022 6:21 pm

Can you cite or explain the ‘first principles’ in physics to show how a Geomagnetic storm would affect a meteorological condition or storm?

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  _Jim
September 27, 2022 8:12 pm

I do not pretend to know the physical linkage or mechanistic explanation, which could be several. I have several hypotheses. But the correlation going back to 1950 (the beginning of the Hurdat2 data) is strong, R^2 > 0.8, p < 0.005. The correlation begins to break down when ENSO ONI > +0.5 (El Nino) and is fully gone at values of ONI > +0.7. So ENSO has to be taken into account to see this effect on Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone RI’s. Factoring in ENSO state is the key parsing out this correlation.

For those new here to WUWT: ONI is the 3 month running mean of ERSST.v5 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW) used to gauge El Nino or La Nina conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, patterns that affect global weather patterns.

The correlation of geomagnetic Kp (Kp is the 3 hour interval planetary K composite of individual stations’ 3 hour K indices, giving 8 x K index value sets in a 24 hour GMT day) to Atlantic Basin tropical cyclones is strongest when ONI between -0.5 < ONI < +0.5 (ENSO neutral). ENSO La Nina conditions seem to make the correlation a wee bit stronger (like now), but at ONI < -1.0 the correlation begins to break down again, it seems because the Atlantic Hurricane strengthening becomes much more sensitive to geomagnetic perturbations, that effect becomes “noisy” (high gain). ENSO thus seems like the rheostat affecting the gain on how well tropical cyclonic strengthening happens during geomagnetic storms, but only in the Atlantic Basin tropical cyclone records.

Why not other global regions for TC (Pacific) development/RI?
One explanation for that may lie in the structure of geomagnetic field strengths (x, y, and z) that are globally unique in the Atlantic Basin/western NH.
The Main Field East component is of most note here:
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/geomag/WMM/data/WMM2020/WMM2020_Y_BoZ_MILL.pdf
With negative Y component values very prominent across the Atlantic Basin as compared to the Pacific basin tropical cyclone areas.

It could also lie in a charged particle cloud seeding down through the ionosphere through the stratosphere mechanism combined with that Atlantic Basin z direction magnetic field strength. It could be a number non-mutally exclusive physical phenomenon at combine to dampen or amplify the TC’s strengthening mechanisms to geomagnetic perturbations.
To repeat, I do not know the mechanism. But the correlation is there.

Last edited 2 months ago by Joel O’Bryan
Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
September 27, 2022 8:29 pm

_Jim,
Also here’s a paper here by physicist on some of these cyclone magnetics.
Key point is that the water molecule is a polar molecule. Bending a stream of water with a static electric field is the common school science trick of this phenomenon.
PHENOMENOLOGICAL ANALYSIS OF FORCES IN HURRICANE DYNAMICS, by
Robert A. Dickerson, PhD
https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/107571.pdf

The key part of this paper by Dickerson begins at Section 6., Electromagnetic Effects

Last edited 2 months ago by Joel O’Bryan
Mark D
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
September 28, 2022 3:50 pm

My uncle in St Pete said the rotating electromagnetic component of a hurricane was attracted to aluminum shell mobile homes by generating and EMF in the siding and that is why hurricanes always hit mobile home parks.

MarkW
Reply to  Mark D
September 29, 2022 1:06 pm

I thought it was tornadoes that targeted trailer parks?

Mark D
Reply to  MarkW
September 29, 2022 2:48 pm

They both generate a lot of electricity so both for sure.

If you are old enough to remember …

https://www.straightdope.com/21341329/how-to-detect-tornados-using-your-tv

Mike Maguire
September 27, 2022 6:17 pm

I have some good Hurricane info here:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89131/#89239

OJ market reaction to the hurricane threat:

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89232/

John Oliver
September 27, 2022 6:35 pm

During hurricane season I always think of the 1622 September 5 wreck of the Atocha being torn to pieces on a reef. They were getting ready to work there way through the Florida straits. Tacking against the prevailing head winds when conditions deteriorated rapidly. Then another storm hit the few survivors out there on Oct 5

spren
Reply to  John Oliver
September 27, 2022 7:40 pm

Thanks for sharing that John. I looked it up for links about the wreck and it was very fascinating and interesting reading. It must’ve been horrific for mariners in those days to sail without any warnings of impending storms such as what hit that fleet.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  spren
September 28, 2022 4:18 pm

Just an opinion: Mariners “in those days” likely had some “warning” due to their experience on the waters, but were unable to change direction easily or quickly enough to locate any safe haven. Ain’t fossil fuels a wonderful thing?

John C Pickens
September 27, 2022 8:17 pm

At the current time, the NWS is calling Ian a category 3 hurricane. I can find no actual measurements on their website of sustained wind speeds. Category 3 would mean sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph. Windy.com has a real time map which shows current wind speed maximum of 62 knots (71 mph) which would make it a category 1 storm. What gives? The closest thing I can find at NWS is the wind history map which has a very small hurricane force windspeed area for a supposed category 3 storm.

Duane
Reply to  John C Pickens
September 28, 2022 6:20 am

Directly measured (by hurricane hunter aircraft dropping sensors) sustained windspeeds of 155 mph (sea level) to 160 mph at altitude, gusts to 190 mph as of 8 am EDT. Landfall not projected until the afternoon due to the slow forward speed of the storm at around 10 mph. Further strengthening possible.

Last edited 2 months ago by Duane
Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Duane
September 29, 2022 12:49 pm

CAT4 when it made landfall. Obviously the strengthening was a bit pathetic.

rah
September 27, 2022 10:19 pm

North of Tampa is the largest electrical generation complex in Florida. It’s right on the coast at Crystal River and has 4 operating fossil fueled units. Unit #3 was nuclear and shut down several years ago. The old coal fired units have been being converted to NG.

Over 20 years ago I was the GM of a small company that did work on the coal fuel systems and ash handling systems of coal fired plants. I and my crew would spend a couple weeks during the annual maintenance shutdowns doing our work. This went on for several years running.

Crystal River is different from most power stations because it draws its water directly from the gulf. The salt water goes through condensers to make it freshwater suitable for running the turbines.

We were working on Unit #2 the year they had their “100 year storm” along that section of the gulf coast. That very large unit alone supplied all of the electrical power for Disney world plus some for Orlando at that time. Though none of the units were damaged directly they still went offline because the salt spray continually kicked out the main breakers at the transformer stations.

If Ian happens to go north and takes that complex off line a huge portion of the grid of N. Florida would probably go down.

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 27, 2022 11:57 pm

The front over the Gulf of Mexico has stopped and will not pull the hurricane Ian eastward.
The hurricane is moving north along 83oW.
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mtpw2/product.php?color_type=tpw_nrl_colors&prod=conus&timespan=24hrs&anim=html5
The threat of flooding in lower-lying areas exists throughout Florida.

Last edited 2 months ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
angech
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 28, 2022 12:15 am

Is the eye getting smaller due to all the moisture being thrown off in that large stream to the right?

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  angech
September 28, 2022 12:59 am
Sturmudgeon
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 28, 2022 4:19 pm

Watch out! Here come Duane again…

Duane
Reply to  angech
September 28, 2022 6:28 am

No – the eye is actually getting larger with a near perfectly formed eyewall, approx. 70 miles diameter with hurricane force winds extending to about 60 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds out to about 140 miles from the center

Ian is unusually large for such an intense hurricane, far larger than the last landfalling hurricane to make a direct hit in Charlotte Co. in 2004.

Duane
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 28, 2022 6:23 am

Current track as of 8 am EDT was north northeast, projected track to move NE across the Florida peninsula after landfall in Charlotte Co, eventually to re-emerge into the Atlantic somewhere near Jacksonville as a low pressure system, and possible re-strengthening thereafte. The eye has been jogging between due north and northeast since it left Cuba.

D Boss
September 28, 2022 5:12 am

The lies continue…. It is 7:35 Wednesday Sept 28/22. The NHC just issued their latest “estimate” of the power of Hurricane Ian as follows:

“BULLETIN
Hurricane Ian Special Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL      AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

…RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING IAN FORECAST TO CAUSE CATASTROPHIC
STORM SURGE, WINDS, AND FLOODING IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT…1100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
———————-
At 700 AM EDT (1100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by
Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data near latitude 25.9 North,
longitude 82.8 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near
9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward
speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the north on
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to
approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning
area this morning, and move onshore later today. The center of Ian
is forecast to move over central Florida tonight and Thursday
morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 155 mph (250 km/h)
with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make
landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic category 4
hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air
Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.”

Now have a look at the radar and actual weather station wind reports, which are supposedly located within the hurricane force windfield at this time:

You will see that as the eyewall is within 30-40 miles of the coastal area of Florida, the actual weather station wind speeds are an order of magnitude lower than the NHC is stating. Also notice they are ESTIMATING the wind speed by extrapolating dropsonde data with central pressure vs wind speed tables, vs their best guess. But both radar and actual ground wind stations are showing their typical lies.

They have been doing this for at least 5 years – overblowing a storm’s category by 1-3 units to fulfill their climate catastrophe narrative. I live in S Florida and thus monitor all the real time info I can get having been through 4 hurricanes, 3 of which the eye passed over my location.

It’s simple physics – the eye has been expanding in diameter for the past 12-15 hours, and when a spinning object expands the mass distribution, it must slow down to conserve angular momentum. Just like a figure skater spinning fast with arms tight to chest, then flinging arms out and they slow down the spin rate dramatically.

Do not get me wrong, it is still a massive storm which has already spawned 2 dozen tornadoes even on the East Coast, one touching down about 2 miles from here last night*. But it is not a cat 4 monster as they are making believe!

(*barely an F0 on the Fujita scale – a few trees uprooted, a few tinfoil/plastic cars flipped and some broken windows)

No doubt it will do some damage when landfall occurs, but the reality is far from what the official narrative is making it out to be!

Ian0743-92822.jpg
Duane
Reply to  D Boss
September 28, 2022 6:25 am

Really, just STFU you have no freaking idea what you are blabbing on an on about. There is no lying by NHC. The windspeeds reported were directly measured by instruments dropped from the hurricane hunter aircraft passing across the eye and then across the eyewall, 155 mph sustained at sea level, 160 mph sustained at altitude, gusts to 190 mph.

ATheoK
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 8:29 am

You really should take your own advice! You are projecting your own foibles onto others.

D Boss states facts from multiple physical sensors, not estimates derived from estimates.

Facts obliviate government crude activism and authoritarian actions.

bwegher
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 8:53 am

DBoss is exactly correct. The NHC uses models to extrapolate surface winds from aircraft dropsondes. Aircraft do not and can not measure surface winds directly.
The NDBC buoys and coast anemometers do read surface wind speeds directly.
Every surface anemometer in reality shows that tropical cyclone Ian is much weaker than claimed by the NHC. The nullschool shows exactly the same sustained surface winds, at 60 to 64 knots in the area of maximum, which is the NW eyewall. The east eyewall is over the coast with much lower wind speeds in the 50 knot range.
Realtime data absolutely refutes the wind velocities claimed by the NHC, and regurgitated by the media. NHC claims since 2005 have been suspect as far as claimed sustained surface winds. Post storm damage photos always show lower winds, that are consistent with the surface anemometers.
Surface damage from Ian will be consistent with a borderline TS/Cat 1 storm. Much less than predicted by a Saffir-Simpson category 3.
The NHC is absolutely culpable in the mass hysteria from their dire predictions of damage. This storm has as much dangers as any storm of the same size and winds, the storm surge will be more destructive. People living in Florida should know this.

Robert W Turner
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 3:05 pm

You’re what we call ‘a special kind of stupid’.

bdgwx
Reply to  D Boss
September 28, 2022 8:18 am

Seriously? You really think all of that aircraft reconnaissance, satellite, doppler radar, etc. data is all fake and made up and that the other meteorological institutions like ECMWF, UKMET, CMC, etc. are turning a blind eye to false official narrative? Really?

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
Duane
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 8:43 am

The stupid is strong with most of the commenters here. Not ignorant – stupid.

bdgwx
Reply to  Duane
September 28, 2022 8:51 am

It is mind boggling. I’m literally seeing isolated 220 mph and widespread 200 mph observations from the KTBW radar at 9000 ft. Using the standard vertical wind profile of tropical cyclones suggests Ian may actually be at category 5 intensity now. We’re going to see more than “some damage”. It is going to be significant.

DonM
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 10:19 am

at 2 miles up … 200 mph.

what are you literally seeing at 0.03 miles up?

bdgwx
Reply to  DonM
September 28, 2022 10:34 am

I’m not seeing anything at 0.03 miles up. The radar beam does not go that low.

bdgwx
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 10:45 am

I just the saw the SFMR observation of 121 kts in the southeast quadrant. That is the weakest part of the storm. Hopefully AF307 makes a pass into the strongest part next.

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 4:31 pm

Exactly! the point being made, but ignored by Duane and Co.

eyesonu
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 10:39 am

bdgwx, I just dropped 2 hits of acid and I’m seeing winds of over 420 mph! It’s worse than we thought! How much worse can it get!!!

bdgwx
Reply to  eyesonu
September 29, 2022 1:11 pm

Let me get this straight…Ian killed people and caused a lot of damage and will possibly rank among the most costly hurricanes in US history and you think its appropriate to mock the situation?

Sturmudgeon
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 4:29 pm

Why not? We have had two-plus years of b.s. from every Health organization and news organization in the World regarding masks, distancing, fake tests and jabs… just because their organization ‘titles’ are impressive, means nothing.

Also, You seem to be ignoring the crucial point made in those posts… that of the buoys and anemometers being far more accurate than those “estimates” based on “models”.

bdgwx
Reply to  Sturmudgeon
September 28, 2022 6:35 pm

Anemometers use models. Buoys (specifically VENF1 and BGCF1) recorded hurricane winds (>= 65 kts) and they weren’t even in the eye wall. BTW…buoys use models to measure wind speed too.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
fretslider
September 28, 2022 6:16 am

I’m glad our Met Office doesn’t do this live storm watch stuff. The BBC would be even more unsufferable.

Nelson
September 28, 2022 7:57 am

The National Bouy Data Center is worth following for live data from offshore buoys.

National Data Buoy Center (noaa.gov)

There are several buoys that are relevant for the current storm. None of the buoy data shows hurricane force winds currently, though that can certainly change quickly

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  Nelson
September 28, 2022 8:58 am

And then you can search on the ones nearest to Ian with https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at4 . Currently none are much closer than 40nm, and none higher than 47 knots. What is the radius of the eye?

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
September 28, 2022 9:16 am

Hmmm, the lowest pressure in those data is 29.26 in, which *33.864 converts to 991mb. That is way above the 937mb minimum claimed by NOAA in their 12:00EDT update. So none of the buoys is close enough to the centre. Or, could the buoys with ‘-‘ records have been incapacitated by high winds?

Are there any Weather Channel guys being blown over on the shore nearest to Ian?

paul
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
September 28, 2022 2:23 pm

jim-blo canatoree is out there but I didn’t watch the video cause he makes me want to puke

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  Nelson
September 28, 2022 9:03 am

From Palmowski’s picture at 8:05am I would estimate the eye is 40 miles across, 20 miles radius.

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 28, 2022 8:06 am

Ian is a very dangerous, slow-moving hurricane. Damage to the coast will be extensive.

comment image<br></div>

Last edited 2 months ago by Ireneusz Palmowski
Ireneusz Palmowski
September 28, 2022 8:24 am
Steve Oregon
September 28, 2022 8:31 am

Pretty good live feed https://youtu.be/wLMBR4QLQ7k

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 28, 2022 9:17 am

Note that the hurricane is strengthening, drawing energy from the Caribbean Sea.
comment image

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 28, 2022 10:08 am

Looks like Oregon and Washington are in for a bad time, too.

DonM
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
September 28, 2022 10:55 am

That’s a typical look for the NW … nothing there.

Low coast winds and very nice fall weather.

(of course I am talking about ground winds and not 2 miles up).

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  DonM
September 28, 2022 1:10 pm

Absolutely gorgeous day here in the PNW. A little shower last night but warm and dry right now with barely a breeze. I’m a little bummed they aerated the greens last week, or I’d be out on the course today.

However, my prayers are with Floridians. Stay safe. Glad that some of you still have power and linkage, apparently.

bwegher
September 28, 2022 9:40 am

Nullschool shows Ian stronger on the west eyewall. Eye center still off coast. East eyewall over the coast.
NDBC shows sustained winds less than hurricane force. Venice, FL at just over 40 knots.
is the highest.
All kinds of real time videos in the media, all show less than hurricane winds, consistent with tropical storm force.

https://classic.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-80.67,23.44,4184/loc=-83.117,26.622

Claims by the NHC are grossly exaggerated. Ian west eyewall winds are just barely hurricane force, about 64 knots maximum sustained wind speed. Ian east eyewall is definitely less than hurricane force.
Real time NDBC anemometers are reliable sustained surface winds measures that correlate with observed damage based on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Most of the post storm damage photos will show the same. Tropical storm, borderline Category 1 at most.

bdgwx
Reply to  bwegher
September 28, 2022 10:48 am

AF307 just recorded 136 kts a flight level and 121 kts at the surface via SFMR in the weakest part of the cyclone with a pressure drop of 2 mb from the previous advisory. You still sticking with < 64 kts?

bwegher
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 10:52 am

SFMR is not a measurement, it’s a model that extrapolates surface winds from the aircraft altitude. If you have real surface data, then show it. Are you saying the NDBC anemometers are all wrong??

bdgwx
Reply to  bwegher
September 28, 2022 11:06 am

bwegher said; “SFMR is not a measurement, it’s a model that extrapolates surface winds from the aircraft altitude.”

Patently False. SFMR is a measurement. Radar is a measurement. Satellite is a measurement. They’re all measurements. And all measurements require a model regardless of whether it was an anemometer, laser interferometer, stepped frequency microwave radiometer, etc. If you don’t like models then you aren’t going to like any velocity figure.

bwegher said; “If you have real surface data, then show it.”

SFMR 121 kts on the south side of Ian.

bwegher said: “Are you saying the NDBC anemometers are all wrong??”

On the contrary. I’m the one saying that anemometers despite being dependent on models is an acceptable measurement. If you can find me an anemometer with a reading higher than 121 kts then I’ll have no choice but to accept its value as the maximum wind. The question is…will you accept anemometer measurements?

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
ScarletMacaw
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 11:16 am

There’s a huge difference between measuring one thing and then using a model to claim something different vs. the “model” design that converts RPM to wind speed. Are you that clueless or do you get paid by the liars?

bdgwx
Reply to  ScarletMacaw
September 28, 2022 11:36 am

If by “clueless” you mean that I don’t accept that the winds at 26.4N, 82.0W as of 18Z are < 64 kts because no one thought to put an anemometer at that location and that Ian is nothing more than a tropical storm then yes I’m extremely “clueless”. I’m so “clueless”, in fact, that I also accept that the Earth is round. Unfortunately I do not get paid for being this “clueless”.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
bwegher
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 11:26 am

You must be mentally impared. SFMR is not data, it’s a model.
Anyone (besides you) have not shown surface data that shows the eastern eyewall over the coast of Florida with sustained winds reaching Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Ian has not made landfall with sustained winds of hurricane force. The west eyewall is just barely hurricane force based on earthnullschool

bdgwx
Reply to  bwegher
September 28, 2022 11:52 am

By that logic anemometer readings are not data either because they too use models. So even if AF307 dropped an anemometer in the eye wall and it miraculously survived you wouldn’t accept it anyway. Same with dropsondes. They use models too so you aren’t going to accept them either. And why are you wanting to find the maximum wind speed over land anyway? That’s not where the maximum winds occur. Regardless it’s probably pointless to point out that there have already been land based ASOS reports over 85 kts and far exceeding 64 kts, but since ASOS uses a model to measure wind speed you likely won’t accept those either.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
n.n
Reply to  bwegher
September 28, 2022 12:37 pm

Yes, a model is a hypothesis, to be tested with sensory and observational data.

n.n
September 28, 2022 10:46 am

Batten down the hatches. Stow the sails. We’re returning to our normally scheduled weather. For awhile, there were fears of climate change, but Her Choice has been to abort that unwanted anthropogenic conceit.

Last edited 2 months ago by n.n
Editor
September 28, 2022 11:07 am

My friends in Punta Gorda have foolishly chosen to remain in place at their home. Hoping for the best for them. They do live at a bit of elevation – on a bluff, so the storm surge will not get into their home, but the winds remain a major problem.

And thanks to Anthony for his live coverage.

bdgwx
Reply to  Kip Hansen
September 28, 2022 12:04 pm

No big deal. According to the contrarians here Ian is probably only a tropical storm and the extent of the damage will be uprooted trees and broken windows. You can tell them not to worry /s.

Mike Maguire
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 7:15 pm

“No big deal. According to the contrarians here Ian is probably only a tropical storm and the extent of the damage will be uprooted trees and broken windows”

Some of us don’t make assumptions first, then cling to anything that we think confirms that assumption.
We look at ALL the empirical data………and I mean ALL as in intentionally trying to find data that might contradict where the data is leading us.

At some point, ALL the data will lead us to an authentic, scientific conclusion but even then, we keep an open mind for any conflicting data.

At least that’s what I do. How about you bdgwx?

bdgwx
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 29, 2022 7:46 pm

That’s exactly what I do too.

BTW…ALL of the data unequivocally says that Ian was a hurricane.

bdgwx
Reply to  Kip Hansen
September 28, 2022 1:46 pm

I hope your friends are ok. KPGD (Punta Gorda) reported 123 mph before it stopped reporting around 4:10 pm. Let us know once you hear from them.

comment image

See - owe to Rich
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 2:22 pm

I’ve been travelling, so didn’t see this for a while. That 123mph was a gust, which would certainly have been a very nasty gust. But the maximum sustained wind in those data is 86mph, which is just a Category 1 hurricane, not a Category 4.

bdgwx
Reply to  See - owe to Rich
September 29, 2022 2:45 pm

Why are you expecting KPGD to observe category 4 winds prior to 4:10pm or at all? Why are expecting the 86 mph sustained wind to represent the maximum wind in the first place?

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
bwegher
September 28, 2022 11:33 am

Radar at 2.30pm Easter time shows the Ian (east eyewall) directly over Fort Myer. Sustained winds much weaker than hurricane force. Eye is off the coast due west, with western eyewall having maximum winds around 65 knots. Satellites show storm is weakening rapidly..

bdgwx
Reply to  bwegher
September 28, 2022 11:58 am

Patently False. Maximum winds on the KTBW radar are at least 135 kts (with isolated bins at 160 kts) as of the 18:52Z scan. Of course, radar, like all wind speed measurements, uses a model so you undoubtedly won’t accept that. So where are you seeing 65 kts at 26.6N, 82.5W anyway?

Johanus
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 12:22 pm

Where are you seeing observed wind speed on the KTBW radar? Doppler radio can only measure radial velocity, toward or away from the radar. So you must be looking at some kind of forecaster’s estimate.

Also, the “official” wind speed must be measured at 10 meter above the surface (roughly where most anemometers are mounted).
“The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale is based on the highest wind speed averaged over a one-minute interval 10 m above the surface.”

bdgwx
Reply to  Johanus
September 28, 2022 1:00 pm

I use GR2Analyst. RadarScope on iPhone or Android allows you to inspect the L2 bins as well. It is not a forecasters estimate. It is the actual observed wind velocity at the height of the beam. At 18:52Z near 26.6N, 82.5W the beam height was about 6600 ft. This corroborates the multiple SFMR surface measurement of 120 kts by AF307 and the visual observation of the storm surge. The data is incontrovertible. Ian’s winds are significantly higher than 64 kts. Like…by a lot. It defies credulity to think Ian isn’t even a hurricane.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
Johanu
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 3:20 pm

| At 18:52Z near 26.6N, 82.5W the beam height was about 6600 ft. 

Winds aloft are always much greater than surface winds, but these winds have no bearing on what’s happening at surface. Hurricane categories are based on observations at 10 meters!

|  It is the actual observed wind velocity

No. It’s an estimation, not an actual measurement. Doppler radar only sees the radial speed. Objects moving perpendicular to the beam seem to have spd=0. True speed can only be modeled, using EAV and similar techniques. It may be accurate (or not) but it is not an observation.

http://unidata.github.io/awips2/cave/d2d-radar-tools/

Here is a current shot of Ian from windy.com show winds at 800mb (about 6400ft) traveling at 95kts. The surface speeds are much slower of course, less

https://www.windy.com/?800h,26.794,-81.922,7,m:erBadS3

But it’s not an observation, only an ESMWF model estimate. Proof? Take a look tat he same atmosphere, but now modeled by GFS. Now only 52kt.

https://www.windy.com/?gfs,800h,26.794,-81.922,7,m:erBadS3

Remember what the late, great George Box said: “All models are wrong, but some are useful”

So be careful when you label posts as “patently false”. It looks like you are the false prophet here.

bdgwx
Reply to  Johanu
September 28, 2022 6:45 pm

I stand by what I said. I’ll take it further. Not only did the KTBW radar measure 135 kts at 18:52Z, it measured 170 kts with isolated bins up to 190 kts during the peak. I’ll take it even further still. Not only did the radar measure well over 65 kts at the beam height, but multiple measurements at the surface were well over 65 kts including SFMR, buoys, and ASOS stations. It is indisputable. Ian was not some mere tropical storm. It was a bona-fide hurricane and major hurricane at that. And any statement that Ian was only a tropical storm is patently false.

Johanus
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 7:36 pm

| KTBW radar it measured 170 kts
| with isolated bins up to 190 kts during the peak.

Again, Doppler radars do not measure wind speed. Sounds like you are calling your radar tool EAV output “measurements”. No. They are Estimated Actual Velocity estimates.  

| but multiple measurements at the surface were well over 65
| kts … including SRMR, buoys and ASOS stations

Are these sustained speeds, not gusts? Can you provide links? I am not denying that Ian could have made landfall as Cat 1, only that I have not seen any surface wind observations actually confirming this.

| It was a bona-fide hurricane and major hurricane 

A hurricane is not considered a “major hurricane” unless it is Cat 3 or higher. The damage from Ian, so far, seems to be surge/flood related, not wind. Where are the pictures of buildings, trees and other objects smashed by Cat 4 (“almost 5”) winds? Color me skeptical. Please provide evidence of major surface winds.

Last edited 2 months ago by Johanus
bdgwx
Reply to  Johanus
September 29, 2022 6:23 am

Johanus said: “Again, Doppler radars do not measure wind speed.”

Yes they do. The products are widely available. WSR-88D velocity measurements are used in various applications including the detection of mesocyclones, downbursts, tornadoes, and even as inputs into numerical weather prediction models. You can download RadarScope on your own phone and see the L2 velocity products yourself. If you have GR2Analyst you can download the archived radar data files here and load them.

Johanus said: “Are these sustained speeds, not gusts?”

Yes. They are sustained.

Aircraft: Surface sustained wind measured 137 kts (157 mph) at 13:44Z and 14:26Z by NOAA2. Technically, that is category 5. The NHC declined to upgrade.

Buoy: BGCF1 and VENF1 both recorded hurricane winds and yet the eye wall did not intercept either of them.

ASOS: KPGD recorded sustained 74 kts wind before a 107 kts gust took the station out.

Johanus said: “A hurricane is not considered a “major hurricane” unless it is Cat 3 or higher.”

Yeah, I know. The NHC officially designed it a category 4. 4 is greater than 3. That means Ian was a major hurricane.

Johanus said: “The damage from Ian, so far, seems to be surge/flood related, not wind. Where are the pictures of buildings, trees and other objects smashed by Cat 4 (“almost 5”) winds? Color me skeptical. Please provide evidence of major surface winds.”

The Saffir-Simpson scale is not based on damage. It is based on measured wind speed. The measured surface wind speed at 13:44Z and 14:26Z were both 137 kts. That is technically a category 5.

BTW…the pictures and news this morning is heartbreaking.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
Reply to  Johanus
September 29, 2022 6:26 am

re: “Again, Doppler radars do not measure wind speed.”

Wind-driven hydrometeors, or, anything else entrained in the ‘wind’ that can reflect or ‘backscatter’ RADAR RF energy is measured (observed would be a better word) for velocity. However, the output, ‘measured’ value is somewhat algorithmic (the product of processing via an algorithm in the WSR-88D RDA unit).

Reply to  Johanu
September 29, 2022 6:28 am

re: “No. It’s an estimation,”

Please cite in the WSR-88D documentation where this value is computed or ‘estimated’.

Last edited 2 months ago by _Jim
bdgwx
Reply to  _Jim
September 29, 2022 7:22 am

The point being made is that WSR-88D uses a model (algorithms, equations, heuristics, etc.) to produce a meaningful velocity. It is a true statement. But it is true for all wind measurements regardless of whether it is from a cup, vane, hot-wire, ultrasonic, acoustic, plate, SFRM, radar, interferometer, etc. They all use models to produce meaningful wind speed values. It is also true for nearly all measurements of any kind. You can’t measure something without having a measurement model. Sometimes the measurement model is simple, but more often than not it is complex like is the case for all wind speed, temperature, humidity, barometric pressure, etc. measurements common in meteorological applications.

Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 7:36 am

re: “The point being made is that WSR-88D uses a model (algorithms, equations, heuristics, etc.)

Overly broad generalization, I don’t agree, and its still not a model. Maybe you’ve lost grasp of what is real, and what is synthesized, what is prognosticated, or extrapolated outside of known values on hand – Doppler Velocity IS a measured value, its not some ‘expected’, forecast or extrapolated value, however, given WHAT is measured (a variety of hydrometeors in the field of view of the RDA RADAR’s antenna) the MEASURED Doppler spectrum can be spread over a small range of spectrum centered about may be termed an average value, and something which does not appear on data plots is this measured spectrum spread, although it exists at least at the RDA (Radar Data Acquisition) level.

Last edited 2 months ago by _Jim
bdgwx
Reply to  _Jim
September 29, 2022 9:42 am

You can disagree all you want. But if you remove the model (algorithms, equations, heuristics) from the WSR-88D you aren’t getting a velocity. You aren’t getting anything from it. And that’s true for any wind speed measurement from any kind of instrument ranging from cup anemometer to stepped frequency microwave radiometers.

My point is that all measurements require a measurement model. So the contrarian position that an instrument that uses a model cannot make a measurement is patently false. WSR-88Ds take measurements. SFMRs take measurements. ASOS stations take measurements. Buoys take measurements. They all take measurements despite requiring a model (some so complex it requires hundreds or thousands of pages of source code) to do it.

Johanus
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 3:20 pm

Hurricane Ian has turned out to be an exceptional, major hurricane. Exceptional in the sense that its most devasting damage seemed to be rain/surge/flood relarted. I remember that Hurricane Andrew winds flattened Homestead Air Force Base in 1992.

My initial skepticism was based on the discrepancies between the ECMWF and GFS forecast models, and the initial lack of reliable ground-based surface wind observations.

I now accept that hurricane force surface winds were observed. But your link to the WC-130 wind data was pointing to “flight level” observations of wind speed, i.e. FL 200 or whatever, not valid for confirming hurricane surface winds. However these upper air observations can serve as raw data for making reliable estimates (more or less) of surface winds, which of course will be less than the flight-level measurements.

| My point is that all measurements require a measurement model.

I agree, that is true. The radar range model is so simple that a child can understand it. It works night and day, any where at any altitude. It just works, unless the equipment (or operator) is malfunctioning.
But Doppler wind speed estimation requires a much more complex model, and is subject to many restrictions on its use. For example, the estimates will contain errors if the winds are not horizontally linear or homogeneous over a sufficient area, or if vertical shear or vorticiity is present. But I think it can be useful tool for estimating wind speeds at synoptic scale, in the absence of conventional observations.

n.n
Reply to  Johanus
September 28, 2022 1:21 pm

AF307 confirms the low surface level speeds. The activity is mainly at high altitudes.

David A
Reply to  Johanus
September 28, 2022 1:21 pm

Bingo, and the best way to make historical comparisons, plus storm surge, plus Simpson scale observable damage.

bdgwx
Reply to  David A
September 28, 2022 2:46 pm

No. The best way to assess hurricane intensity is to measure the winds. Storm surge and damage assessments have their place, but are useless when the tropical cyclone is offshore.

Nelson
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 2:10 pm

You don’t seem to understand the difference between wind speed and gusts

bdgwx
Reply to  Nelson
September 28, 2022 2:54 pm

I think sustained wind speeds are based on 1-minute averages. I think wind gusts are based on instantaneous measurements. I assume you disagree?

Johanus
September 28, 2022 11:43 am

Ian is now about halfway on land (~1830Z) at Cape Coral, Fl.

If you’re watching real time on windy.com, you will see a green dot on the south wall of the hurricane,
https://www.windy.com/station/madis-TS755?radar,26.441,-82.105,8

That is MADIS TS755, an amateur weather station on Sanibel Island, with web page here:
https://www.pwsweather.com/station/mid/ts755.

He’s as close as you can get to the main action of this storm. Latest reading: WINDSPD=52 GUST=98, so tropical storm level (39-73mph), based on sustained wind, cat 2 (96-110mph) if gusts are counted.

I tried looking up the NDBC data for the nearby buoy station (FMRF1), but it hasn’t posted current data yet.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml

Johanus
Reply to  Johanus
September 28, 2022 11:50 am

| If you’re watching real time on windy.com …

To see these local weather stations, on windy.com, you must first click on a local name (e.g. “Sanibel”). Then a forecast will popup with an icon on the left margin for local weather stations. Click on that then you will see TS-755 as I have depicted in above.

ScarletMacaw
Reply to  Johanus
September 28, 2022 11:52 am

WeatherUnderground has a video of a reporter standing in the eyewall winds on Ft. Myers (beach?). He was not being blown over, or anywhere close.

Richard Page
Reply to  ScarletMacaw
September 28, 2022 12:32 pm

OMG doesn’t he know those are 200+mph winds? Hasn’t he talked to Duane or bdgwx about this? sarc

David A
Reply to  Johanus
September 28, 2022 1:23 pm

Gusts if short duration are not counted.

Johanus
Reply to  David A
September 28, 2022 3:48 pm

The Saffir-Simpson category criteria was based on surface observations averaged over 1 minute (i.e. “sustained”). That’s not what we’re hearing and reading on the web today.

The truth in journalism has become somewhat radicalized. I don’t blame the reporters, they report what they are told to, and they typically lack the technical knowledge to assess this deception. The upper media leadership tends to label a report as true only if it supports the activist narrative. Otherwise it is not reported. It’s Lysenkoism on an international scale.

Greg
Reply to  Johanus
September 28, 2022 6:18 pm

No, blame the reporters. They want to talk it up to make it more exciting to get more views.

Even Fox, who are not out pushing a climate agenda, have Todd saying it has grown “exponentially” since this morning ( by which he means it got bigger ). Harris thinks a “chopper” flew into the eye of the storm and had to pull back because it was so intense. She seems to ignore what the eye refers to and that hurricane hunters are not “choppers”. The meteorologist in the studio did not bother correcting her.

Last edited 2 months ago by Greg
David A
Reply to  Johanus
September 29, 2022 12:56 am

I thought it was changed to one minute in 2019, from a longer period before?

Johanus
Reply to  Johanus
September 28, 2022 4:53 pm

I just downloaded the latest NDBC buoy data near Ian, including FMR1 up to an hour ago (2200Z).
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=26.9&lon1=-82&uom=E&dist=150&ot=A&time=8

To save you picking through this data, here are the 20 highest wind speed and wind gust values in the last 8 hours. They are consistent with tropical storm level winds (39-73 mph). Station MADIS-TS755 (see my other earlier post) report was slightly stronger (52,98) because he was very close to the ocean when the storm wall went over his station.

ID       GMT SPD GST 
FMRF1  2212 47.0 61.0 
FMRF1  2200 45.1 56.9 
FMRF1  2218 44.1 65.1 
FMRF1  2154 42.9 60.0 
FMRF1  1900 42.9 56.9 
FMRF1  1854 42.9 69.9 
FMRF1  2142 42.0 61.0 
FMRF1  1930 42.0 58.1 
FMRF1  2206 41.0 56.9 
FMRF1  2136 41.0 59.1 
FMRF1  2130 41.0 62.9 
FMRF1  1948 41.0 68.0 
FMRF1  2148 40.0 58.1 
FMRF1  1912 39.0 61.0 
FMRF1  1818 39.0 49.9 
FMRF1  1806 39.0 52.1 
FMRF1  1954 38.1 55.9 
FMRF1  1942 38.1 65.1 
FMRF1  1936 38.1 60.0 
FMRF1  1924 35.9 59.1 
Last edited 2 months ago by Johanus
Malon Wilkus
Editor
September 28, 2022 12:12 pm

What is the scale on the map you are showing? Does it show the wind speeds or rain amounts?

Nelson
September 28, 2022 12:22 pm

It is very strange that none of the NDBC buoys are showing wind speeds anywhere near what is being reported by the National Hurricane Center. If you go to AccuWeather, it’s hard to find wind gusts above 70 at any of the towns along the west coast of Florida. Maybe the difference is just altitude.

n.n
Reply to  Nelson
September 28, 2022 12:56 pm

Surface levels buoy data confirmed by AF307 sonde drops near Ft. Meyers. The high wind speeds are measured at altitude.

AF307

Last edited 2 months ago by n.n
bwegher
Reply to  n.n
September 28, 2022 1:20 pm

That Sonde drop was 27 miles from Ft. Myer, due south of the eye center. The reort shows the wind estimate was 67 knots.
Earthnullschool shows around 60 knots at the same time a that point. The aircraft drop was into what looked to them as a stong point of the eyewall, ie. they selected what they guessed to be the stongest part of the storm in their flight path. Nullschool showed that stronger winds were to the west and northwest of the eye. The eastern half of the storm was clearly much weaker, confirmed by satellite radar imaging.

The online and network media freak show continues. Real time video clearly shows tropical storm force winds on land without exception. At about 4.20 Eastern time.

n.n
Reply to  bwegher
September 28, 2022 2:34 pm

Yes, that confirms the Buoy data at the surface. The high speed winds are… were measured at altitude.

bdgwx
Reply to  Nelson
September 28, 2022 1:14 pm

Why is that strange?

Nelson
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 2:18 pm

It’s strange if you want to believe that the wind speeds are 135 mph. The buoy data does not confirm anything more than a category 1 storm. If you look at the airport data posted at Punta Gorda, the wind speed max is in the 80s with much higher gusts.

bdgwx
Reply to  Nelson
September 28, 2022 2:40 pm

Nelson said: “The buoy data does not confirm anything more than a category 1 storm.”

Which buoy did the western portion of the eye wall intercept?

Nelson said: “If you look at the airport data posted at Punta Gorda, the wind speed max is in the 80s with much higher gusts.”

Yep. Pretty impressive isn’t it. KPGD is well inland and experiencing easterly winds and yet still managed to report sustained 86 mph with a gust to 123 mph before the site stopped reporting. That is consistent with a major hurricane. Remember, maximum wind speeds occur well offshore out in the open waters. The winds over land slow down significantly due to friction.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
David A
Reply to  bdgwx
September 28, 2022 5:31 pm

Link?

bdgwx
Reply to  David A
September 28, 2022 6:38 pm

I posted the picture above. You can download the data directly here if you want.

Erast Van Doren
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 8:57 am
bdgwx
Reply to  Erast Van Doren
September 29, 2022 9:29 am

Erast Van Doren said: “Venice buoy was close enough.”

No it wasn’t. It was close enough to confirm that Ian was at least a hurricane which several on here do not accept. But it was not close enough to measure the maximum wind in the eye wall since Ian passed south of it. What is interesting is that it still managed to record 75 kt winds despite missing the direct hit from Ian.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
eyesonu
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 11:59 am

What happened to you trying to pass it off as a category 4 and almost a 5 and one of the top storms to ever hit the country. Now you are arguing that it might almost be a category 1.

bdgwx
Reply to  eyesonu
September 29, 2022 1:08 pm

I still accept that it was a high end category 4 at peak intensity.

I do not accept that it “might almost be a category 1”.

What I’m saying is that that VENF1 observation of 75 kts proves that it was at least a category 1 and debunks the claims being made here that it wasn’t even a hurricane. Furthermore, VENF1 was not even in the path of the eye and so it didn’t experience the maximum winds are yet it still observed hurricane force winds. Not only is that a testament to the intensity of the storm, but it also consistent with all of the other observations like the 137 kts in the wester eye wall at peak intensity. I don’t know how to make it anymore clear. Not only was Ian a hurricane it was a major hurricane. That is a fact supported by the data.

John Pickens
September 28, 2022 1:37 pm

If Ian were a category 4 hurricane at landfall, we would see images of trees totally stripped bare with the roots and base of the trunk showing, and the trunks ripped off. Haven’t seen anything like that yet. We’ll see tomorrow. If you see any palm fronds remaining attached to trees with upright trunks, you’ll know that it was tropical force winds only. Please post any photos for Saffir Simpson scale estimates.
comment image?width=660&height=644&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webp

Last edited 2 months ago by John Pickens
Robert W Turner
Reply to  John Pickens
September 28, 2022 3:14 pm

That’s why the narrative has been, “almost cat 5” the whole time. It was just ‘so close’ to blowing infrastructure completely away like Andrew did, will be the narrative afterwards. These criminals should be reinforcing the dangers from the real flooding instead of worrying about hyping the storm’s wind on paper.

n.n
Reply to  Robert W Turner
September 28, 2022 5:49 pm

The “cusp” h/t WaPo a la emanations from penumbras (twilight fringe) and other conflations of logical domains (e.g. cargo cult science).

Greg
Reply to  John Pickens
September 28, 2022 6:05 pm

Yep , a lot of live coverage I’ve seen has been a lot less dramatic than promised. No CNN reporters leaning into the wind while standing in a flooded ditch.

rah
September 28, 2022 2:17 pm

I just saw what appeared to be one of those office trailers one see for temporary office space at construction sites floating down the street in Ft. Meyer.

rah
September 28, 2022 2:21 pm

Odds are some of those near shore islands will have channels cut through them. Our family vacation house is on a channel near Port Charlotte. Sure not looking good. Hurricane shutters ain’t stopping that storm surge. Thankfully high tide passed before the wind has started driving the surge up Charlotte Harbor.

Richard Page
Reply to  rah
September 28, 2022 3:03 pm

I think the storm surge is what will do a lot of the damage, especially bad on the coast. Fingers crossed for anybody caught in it.

Rob_Dawg
September 28, 2022 3:39 pm

But but.. earthquakes, gully cats, queen snakes… SMOG!

Greg
September 28, 2022 5:59 pm

Watching the live stream as the eye moves to the center of the pan handle, we see it’s models all the way down.

comment image

Despite the track of the storm turning to the NE, the forecast is still doing its best to push it back onto the track the model was producing earlier in the day.

This is so reminiscent of climate models refusing to adapt to warming of the last 30y being about half that of the CMIP6 average and even doubling down with more extreme projections.

Scissor
Reply to  Greg
September 28, 2022 6:36 pm

Traditionally, the Florida panhandle is the northwestern part of the state, ~ Pensacola to Tallahassee.

eyesonu
September 28, 2022 8:24 pm

This headline will be hard to beat! Fort Myers is swallowed up by monstrous 18′ (eighteen foot) storm surge and 155 mph winds! https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11250413/Ian-strengthens-Category-1-hurricane-nears-Cuba-NHC.html

mal
Reply to  eyesonu
September 29, 2022 12:17 am

You tell me what’s going on look at the wind speed in Fort Meyer today. The storm surge must have been horrendous but wind. Just a windy day in North Dakota. Granted it inland a bit but the buoys out at sea aren’t that different. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fmrf1, You can find this information at https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/. Now as a surge and rain event it will not be much fun, I been in three eight rains storms in my life time and even with that everything stops for a while. My sister had a 20 inch rain event and ended with eight inch of water in their basement even though they are on a hill. These event are about as far from a ocean you can get. Its no fun to lose power in a rain event. Especially when you have a basement and a sub pump. It also disconcerting to have water half way up you drive way at the same time and it still raining. Floods are no fun.

Planet Fan
September 28, 2022 9:22 pm

How are you explaining this one away? There’s real, non-photoshopped video footage of sharks swimming in the streets of Florida and water receding because of tsunamis. Do you deniers think this is normal or good?

Editor
Reply to  Planet Fan
September 28, 2022 11:51 pm

Stop promoting dumb Strawman attacks since it is a logical fallacy and dishonest.

Scissor
Reply to  Sunsettommy
September 29, 2022 4:47 am

Ian spawned a sharknado apparently.

Derg
Reply to  Planet Fan
September 29, 2022 2:21 am

Did you take your meds today?

rah
Reply to  Planet Fan
September 29, 2022 2:36 am

What is there to “explain away”?

Global ACE is 81% of normal and:
comment image

rah
Reply to  Planet Fan
September 29, 2022 3:04 am

Turn off the weather channel. You have obviously been watching more hurricane porn than you can handle.

Climate believer
Reply to  Planet Fan
September 29, 2022 9:57 am

“Do you deniers think this is normal or good?”

What are we supposed to be denying now, hurricanes or sharks? lol.

You’re so dumb.

John_C
Reply to  Climate believer
September 29, 2022 12:30 pm

Sharkicanes.

Reply to  Climate believer
September 30, 2022 2:21 pm

Are we not supposed to be den÷ING Florida?
PF does seem a little incoherent – IMHO.

Auto

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Planet Fan
September 29, 2022 1:06 pm

Storms hitting the coast of the US are a perfectly normal and regular event. Tsunamis are the result of earthquakes and nothing to do with weather or the climate. Next time, do some research before you make a fool of yourself.

Pat from kerbob
September 28, 2022 9:52 pm

Sucks to be in Florida tonight, nothing good about the situation
But this is their reality.
Just as I have to accept polar high pressures in calgary winters with -40 for a week or two at a time.
It happens

Same thing has occurred in Florida for thousands of years wherever a hurricane makes landfall and will continue to do so.

I won’t make any mouth breathing comments like “don’t build in a flood plain” because people live there and love it, that’s why they are there and more go every year despite “climate emergency”.
But you have to accept the good with the bad, anything else is dishonest.

Like people who buy a house on a golf course then complain when golf balls hit their house.

Accept the reality of your situation and rebuild
Or leave.

John_C
Reply to  Pat from kerbob
September 29, 2022 12:37 pm

I don’t blame people for buying in flood prone area that is otherwise desirable. I may question their judgement, but then I live in an earthquake prone area, so what do I know? I object to Federal relief funds that just put everything back as though there won’t be another one next year. (Maybe requiring the home to withstand a Cat 3 storm, and take only minor damage from a Cat 4? Obviously being impervious to a Cat 5 is ideal, but giant concrete blocks are expensive eyesores.)

Last edited 2 months ago by John_C
Greg
September 29, 2022 12:34 am

Just checked current storm tracks:

comment image

Now that is what I call a “spagetti plot”. Like throw it against the wall and see what sticks !!

Models all the way down.

My forecast is that it will rain or go dark before the night’s out 😉

Last edited 2 months ago by Greg
H.R.
Reply to  Greg
September 29, 2022 7:09 am

Another spot-on weather forecast, compliments of Greg. 👍 😉

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 29, 2022 1:27 am

The center of the cyclone is still over southeast Florida.
comment image

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 29, 2022 1:53 am

The shear front has moved far away into the Atlantic, so the cyclone remains over Florida.
comment image

Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 29, 2022 7:21 am

A few more ‘wind markers’/a little more detail 10:14 AM EDT Thursday:

2022092914_metars_tpa_1416z.gif
Last edited 2 months ago by _Jim
rah
September 29, 2022 3:02 am

In case you haven’t noticed there is a stiff competition between the morons that do “news” commentary to see who can bring “climate change” up front and center as the cause of Ian hitting Florida. Current top three efforts I have seen are from:

Don Lemon
Joy Reid
Joy Behar

All climate experts of course.

I am confident more will enter into the competition and I await the sage advise and wisdom of Saint Greta of the Thunbergs.

Coach Springer
Reply to  rah
September 29, 2022 7:18 am

We noticed.

D Boss
September 29, 2022 5:11 am

As an update to my post yesterday, which many have criticized as being preposterous I add the following actual DATA. To recap I indicated the lies from the NHC continue, and the actual wind speeds are bumped up by 1 to 3 storm categories of late. They claimed it was 155 MPH sustained winds at landfall. But ground stations around there did not report anywhere near this value. Now see the image below, and you can peruse this data yourself at :
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL71/history/20220928/1553Z/KBIX/KBIX

This is the actual Hurricane Hunter, flying through Ian at about landfall. It is a C130, and it must use Va or Max Maneuvering speed flying in extreme turbulence. Va here is 240 MPH, which you can see in the ADS-B data from Flight Aware. (ADS-B is the transponder data from the aircraft, picked up by ground stations and also used for traffic collision avoidance and it transmits altitude, heading and position and derives ground speed from this data)

NOTE all speeds here are Ground Speed. Meaning actual airspeed of the plane, with the wind speed added or subtracted to/from the airspeed depending on the plane’s vs the wind’s relative heading.

Now in the image I have moved the plane to the position seen, which is the lowest groundspeed as the plane traversed through the eyewall. The plane was at heading 89 degrees and the wind was from approx 50-60 degrees. The ground speed here was 151 MPH and thus the reduction from their actual airspeed of 240 mph is 89 mph.

Now to back track, this is a combined head/cross wind, so to derive the actual wind speed we find it is between 110 and 120 MPH given the trigonometry here.

Period, no debate, these are the actual facts Jack! Oh and the plane was at 9,975 feet above sea level, so ground wind speed is lower! Here is the actual track log:
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/TEAL71/history/20220928/1553Z/KBIX/KBIX/tracklog

And the specific point is at 2:58:03

Now as additional reference, see this video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_ulPiaF3Os&t=84s

Juan Browne is a 777 pilot, who flew C130’s in the military as well. Note he mentions they are flying at maneuvering speed (Va) which is the max airspeed to prevent damage to the airframe with abrupt control movements or turbulence. Va for the C130 is generally around 210 knots or 241.5 mph. The ADS-B data above shows they were using near 234 mph, but let’s use 240 for these purposes.

And to boot, watching the Weather Channel last night, they were indicating on tables on screen the max GUST recorded at eyewall landfall was 135 mph, and they also had 120 and 110 as max gusts nearby!!! So sustained wind, which is what the Saffir Simpson scale is based upon, is lower than max gusts!

I stand with my original claim – NHC is deliberately bumping up storm categories to unrealistic levels!

In closing, the storm was strong, and no doubt devastating to many individuals. I sympathize as I lived through the eyewall of Francis back in the early 2,000’s. The specifics of that storm was an expanding eye diameter, and slowed track, such that my house was in the 90-95 mph eyewall for freaking 22 hours! And it was not fun to say the least.

I do have a healthy respect for the potential energy of hurricanes. Which is why I like to do my own digging on the actual data, as I’ve learned not to trust the official narrative!

IanFlight-151.jpg
bdgwx
Reply to  D Boss
September 29, 2022 6:34 am

Hurricane winds are not maximized over land. They are maximized in the eye wall over open water. Ground stations are not expected to observe maximum winds in a hurricane. Furthermore, when the eye wall of a major hurricane goes over a ground station it often does not survive so you have no way of knowing the highest at that site anyway. This is true for KPGD which went offline after a 123 mph gust. If you want to know the maximum wind you have measure in the eye wall over open water using an instrument that survives. NOAA2 and AF301 both recorded 137 kts (157 mph) at the surface in the western eye wall.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
David A
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 6:49 am

That is a certain recipe to bias the present storms verses the past, falsely elevating the present.

David A
Reply to  David A
September 29, 2022 6:51 am

BTW, what is the highest storm surge from Ian?

Last edited 2 months ago by David A
bdgwx
Reply to  David A
September 29, 2022 9:21 am

Are you saying Ian wasn’t a category 4 storm because NOAA and AF weren’t doing recon flights until the 1940’s?

PaulID
Reply to  D Boss
September 29, 2022 6:41 am

I have seen reports they are already quietly downgrading the category

bdgwx
Reply to  PaulID
September 29, 2022 6:44 am

Where are you seeing that?

Erast Van Doren
Reply to  D Boss
September 29, 2022 8:51 am

Max speed at the Venice buoy was 75 knots. Category 1.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=venf1

Last edited 2 months ago by Erast Van Doren
bdgwx
Reply to  Erast Van Doren
September 29, 2022 10:04 am

And that buoy wasn’t even in the eye and yet it still recorded 75 kts which is well above the 64 kts threshold for a hurricane which some on here reject.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
rah
September 29, 2022 7:17 am

My girls at Daytona Beach decided to hunker down and ride it out. They still have phones service and electricity but the internet is down. Sending texts with pictures. Already 5″ of water running down their street and the worst part of the storm when they will getting the part of Ian that is feeding off the ocean again is yet to arrive.

Winds gusting to 70 mph. Enough to take out a big palm tree across the street from them. The palm blocks the nearest exit from their neighborhood but there is another.

Since Laura is the Dean of the online medical arts program of a university virtually all her work is done online from home. So the plan is that if they lose internet service for long they’ll pack up and come stay with us here in Indiana for a time.

rah
September 29, 2022 7:33 am
rah
September 29, 2022 8:30 am

Our family vacation home is on a channel off Charlotte Harbor near Port Charlotte. Here is some drone footage from the weather channel of that area. Sure doesn’t look good.

The Weather Channel on Twitter: “FIRST LOOK: Aerials in Port Charlotte, Florida, show severe structural damage and flooding in the wake of Hurricane #Ian: https://t.co/rHMEPjPhjM” / Twitter

Garboard
September 29, 2022 8:34 am

I was on st martin watching Irma in 17 . The European model showed a direct hit days in advance . The American model showed it curving north of the island . I sailed south 3 days before it wrecked st martin with the US model still showing it going north of the island .

rah
September 29, 2022 10:19 am

Levi has his Thursday video out. This storm will bring significant rain to basically all of SC, NC, and VA east of the Appalachians. Significant storm surge along almost all of the SC coast expected. So once again flooding threats both coastal and inland with flash floods. NHC shows it back to CAT I status by the time it reaches the SC coast despite cold dry air being sucked into the core of the storm now.

Tropical Tidbits

Last edited 2 months ago by rah
Ireneusz Palmowski
September 29, 2022 10:28 am

The hurricane came out into the Atlantic off the east coast of Florida. The visible eye of the tropical cyclone.
comment image

rah
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 29, 2022 11:54 am

Though the forecast is to strengthen because it is going over warm water Levi is saying he doubts it will regain the classic eye structure because it is sucking in a lot of dry cold air now. We shal see! I mean it went right over Cuba with no degradation hardly noticeable and now comes off the coast with a discernible eye though obviously the north part of the storm is much more developed than the south.

amac
September 29, 2022 11:03 am

Strangely there are very few tv pictures of this storm.

Mike Maguire
September 29, 2022 11:17 am

Indisputable evidence that Ian was only a cat. 2 hurricane.

Suddenly, Ian is the 4th strongest hurricane in Florida history?
NO IT WASN’T!
Here, let me PROVE it wasn’t. Not even close to a top 10 hurricane for Florida!

https://www.marketforum.com/forum/topic/89131/#89321

rah
September 29, 2022 12:01 pm

Though always skeptical of the claims from the NHC and the hype of the weather channel, after seeing their inflation of the power of Irma back in 2017, I have no doubt that Ian was a very powerful storm at landfall and I am not buying the claims being made here that it was not a major hurricane.

Mike Maguire
Reply to  rah
September 29, 2022 12:36 pm

rah,
Nobody is disputing it did tremendous damage but where is any data to show that winds were 150 mph sustained at landfall or even 120 mph at landfall? I looked everywhere. A few places along the coast had wind gusts above 100 mph. The measured empirical data is the data. Using data, completely takes out the emotions, sensationalism, embellishment AND any denial or skeptism.

rah
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 29, 2022 1:29 pm

The very fact that several of the anemometers of the land stations were taken out by this storm speaks volumes to me. If you cannot find the data for faster wind speeds the obviously the measurements were not being taken at the right place.

For Irma there seemed to be far more buoys and land stations that were in the right places that made me sure that it was not a CAT III but a middle of the road CAT II before it came ashore.

But this time was a different matter from what I see. Sure you can say what you want about what metrics you have. And you can point out that hurricanes are graded based on 1 minute sustained winds taken by an unmasked station 10 meters above surface level as per the classic Saffir-Simpson metric.

But unlike you apparently, I also judge a storms power based on things like surge and damage, allowing for the circumstances of terrain, development, etc. IOW something like what Joe Bastardi calls his “impact scale”. And based on that no one is going to convince me that Ian was less than a top end CAT III if not a CAT IV.

bdgwx
Reply to  rah
September 29, 2022 1:41 pm

Exactly. Failure of ground based stations is very common. Take KPGD for example, it recorded 123 mph gust and then went offline. It didn’t even get a chance to measure the most intense part of the storm. Buoys have the same problem. The most effective way to observe the eye wall is either by recon aircraft who instruments can survive to tell the tale.

Phil
Reply to  rah
September 29, 2022 10:47 pm

Binning all hurricanes into 5 bins makes no sense to me. Gilbert and Andrew were very different. Looks like storm surge was the most destructive force.

bdgwx
Reply to  Mike Maguire
September 29, 2022 1:38 pm

I cannot find 150 mph at landfall. I can only find 140 mph at landfall per the AF307 observation. There is a good chance the NHC will adjust the landfall intensity downward. However, NOAA2 and AF301 observed 157 mph prior to landfall so there’s a chance (probably not good) that it will upgrade the peak intensity to category 5.

Martin Buchanan
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 3:06 pm

That brings mobile audio amp manufacturers quoting peak watts instead of watts RMS to mind.

rah
Reply to  bdgwx
September 29, 2022 8:40 pm

I wouldn’t be surprised if they upgraded it to a CAT V like they did Michael after reanalysis. They need the propaganda value.

bdgwx
Reply to  rah
September 30, 2022 10:51 am

Michael was an open and shut case due to the 152 kts (175 mph) SFMR measurement and the fact that the NOAA aircraft didn’t even intercept the band of maximum winds. Due to communication issues the recon data from that flight didn’t make it to the NHC office in real-time so the NHC did not get the opportunity to review it until after the fact.

I’ve not heard of communication issues with the recon data for Ian. The big question for me is the radar data which was showing sustained 175 kts flight level winds which would typically indicate a category 5 hurricane. Note that radar was only observing 155 kts for Michael. If the post storm analysis shows that the radar data is viable then it is possible we see an upgrade. But I don’t think that outcome is likely. I think is more likely that we actually see a downgrade of the landfall intensity due to the much lower SFMR measurement of 121 kts vs the 137 kts and the dropsonde of 126 kts vs 131 kts at landfall and peak intensity respectively. Ian was weakening during landfall. However, there is a lot of data that is unavailable in real-time that could take weeks to review. And the NHC will want to review instrumentation to see if it was accurate. That all takes time.

Last edited 2 months ago by bdgwx
rah
September 29, 2022 9:15 pm

Seen two reports from hurricane hunters saying Ian gave them the roughest ride they have had in their careers. It also had the most lightning. One was on a C-130 the other on a WP-3D.

The C-130 experienced severe up and down drafts and the WP-3D severe lateral turbulence. The WP-3D went in at night and the guy said the eye was lighted up like day from the lightning. No ones coffee survived apparently.

H.R.
Reply to  rah
September 30, 2022 6:09 am

I saw a satellite view of that or maybe it was from one of the planes, and the lightning was incredible!

What I noticed was it seemed most of the lightning was in the South, Southeast, and East areas of Ian and a lot of it was in the outer band. The eye was lit up almost constantly.

I don’t know enough about hurricanes to say why that was happening.

We Snowbird in a 5th-wheel between Clearwater and St. Petersburg, a little over a mile from the coast. You can leave or take your trailer and this year we left it (aack!) so we could go down a few extra times during the year.

That’s why I was noticing that the lightning just wasn’t happening above what is more or less a West to East centerline through the storm. I’m sure someone here knows why that happened that way.

A Florida neighbor called with the damage report yesterday for our rig and our area he didn’t say anything about lightning damage. (We lost one tire cover off our rig. That was the damage report. $10. Yay!)

H.R.
Reply to  H.R.
September 30, 2022 6:29 am

P.S. Our rig was 81 miles as the crow flies from the center of the eye at landfall. The wind (ground, not the hurricane height) was 43 mph average with gusts to 70 mph.

I have no idea what that says about the classification of hurricane Ian.

bdgwx
Reply to  H.R.
September 30, 2022 10:30 am

That’s about what would be expected based on the 15Z advisory from the NHC.

bwegher
September 30, 2022 6:56 pm

Plenty of post-storm photos of damage from Ian. Entirely consistent with Saffir-Simpson Category 1.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale
The SW Florida landfall was unusual in several ways.
The oblique angle where the eastern eyewall was over land for some time with lower than Category 1 winds in the 50 knots range. At that time the western eyewall was over water with 70 knot winds.
Ian then turned from a northerly track toward the east. Peak storm winds in the trailing eyewall were stronger with sustained winds being recorded at 71 knots or 36.6 meters per second. The time was 21.10 by NDBC shore station VENF1 on the 28th.
Anemometer height 11.6 meters above site elevation. This is the only reliable surface station that actually recorded sustained winds satisfying claims that Ian was a hurricane.
earthnullschool showed similar winds at the same time in that location, but was not recorded to my knowledge.
Sampling of NWS stations during the storm showed no winds of hurricane force at any time.
The Saffir-Simpson scale for category 1 exactly matches the photos of surface damage due to sustained winds. Weak structures, mobile homes, etc, could have significant damage.
Plenty of photos of trees and palms with minor damage consistent with category 1 winds.
By far the majority of damage is from storm surge flooding, which has nothing to do with the category ranking of hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson scale. All this happened while the NHC was claiming category 4, which is clearly impossible. If winds were 150 mph then the entire land surface would have been scraped flat, like Andrew in 1992, which was a legit Category 5, where no surface anemometers survived the storm. I crossed the damage path of Andrew a few weeks after and it looked like an atomic bomb had gone off.
Anyone who claims Ian was a major hurricane is clueless. There is no comparison in observed surface damage.
The evidence shows Ian was a Category 1 hurricane at landfall, based on observations that anyone can check for themselves.
By the way, the NHC claims that Ian was Cat 1 at the S. Carolina landfall. Nonsense. There is no data that shows sustained winds over 45 knots anywhere in the storm path approaching South Carolina or by land based anemometers on the coast. Earthnullschool clearly showed a much weaker tropical storm at that time.