Map Of Eastern Canada Battered by Fiona’s Hurricane-Force Winds and Storm Surges

From Polar Bear Science

Susan Crockford

Port aux Basques in SW Newfoundland has been particularly badly hit by Fiona, called ‘total devastation’. I know this region well from researching my latest science-based novel, UPHEAVAL, about a sea ice tsunami that hits Cape Breton Island and the Port aux Basques region in 2026 causing similar but more extensive damage. I discovered that many coastal areas in the Gulf of St. Lawrence are only 10m or so above sea level and since houses are often built close to shore, they are extremely vulnerable to high wave heights and storm surges.

Port aux Basques house falling into the sea, 24 September 2022. Rene Roy photo/Wreckhouse Press.

Some waves along Nova Scotia’s Eastern Shore could build to be more than 10 metres, with waves along southern Newfoundland on Saturday morning reaching higher heights. “Waves over eastern portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence and Cabot Strait could be higher than 12 metres,” Environment Canada said. CBC News 24 September 2022.

I may post updates as more information comes in. See the map below to orient yourself regarding news reports.

From my novel, but note that “Epicentre 2026” is the fictional earthquake that causes the sea ice tsunami in my ‘geological fiction’ story:

ADDED: Moment of impact video at Port aux Basques, via twitter:

Video from CBC: “Homes lost, residents flee as Fiona smashes Port aux Basques, N.L.” 24 September 2022

Lord’s Cove, SE Newfoundland November 1929 damage from tsunami caused by an offshore earthquake.
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PCman999
September 24, 2022 10:15 pm

The media reports couldn’t resist at least one reference about how climate change ‘could’ be making this storm worse .

No mention of the fact that it’s been a very quiet storm season so far, and it’s almost over. I guess their eco-religion prevents them from seeing any good coming out of the demon CO2.

Stanley
Reply to  PCman999
September 25, 2022 3:49 am

You’re wrong….BBC saying it’s all to do with Climate Change, not “could”. Not to mention super typhoon Noru in the Philippines. They would know /sarc.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  PCman999
September 25, 2022 5:09 am

I heard one report on tv claiming Fiona was going to be the strongest storm to hit Canada in history.

RMoore
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 25, 2022 6:24 am

Newfoundland became part of Canada in1949. Prior to that is was an independent member of the British Empire. So maybe that statement is true.
Super Storm Sandy damaged or destroyed 650,000 homes.
Port Aux Basques had a population of 4012 people in 2016. So far 20 homes listed as destroyed. I have taken the ferry from NS to Port aux Basques, colorful homes against the rocky shore.

Bill Powers
Reply to  Tom Abbott
September 25, 2022 1:19 pm

For the post 1990 public school graduates History started around the Truman Administration. I think some of them think the Big Bang was the atomic bomb on Hiroshima. These BORG Drones are 21st century Pavlovian Experiments. Say the magic words and watch them crowd source an urban riot.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  PCman999
September 25, 2022 5:09 am

“No mention of the fact that it’s been a very quiet storm season so far, and it’s almost over”

As mentioned previously on another thread, it only takes one. Activity predictions, past and current activity is meaningless if you are hit with the “one”.
And we are not “almost over” with this season.

Timo, Not That One
Reply to  Tom in Florida
September 26, 2022 8:19 am

So Tom in Florida, do you mean that if the “one” storm hits you, it must be caused by AGW?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Timo, Not That One
September 26, 2022 5:05 pm

Where did I say anything about AGW? Do you have a reading disability?
The point is simple, forecasts and predictions are meaningless because no matter what the forecast is, few or many, it only takes one to ruin your life. Like what’s coming to my doorstep in Venice this Wednesday.

PCman999
September 24, 2022 10:20 pm

My hopes and prayers to all the newfies out East, for your lives, safety and a quick clean up and rebuild.

Steve Case
Reply to  PCman999
September 24, 2022 10:29 pm

 a quick clean up and rebuild
________________________

… maybe somewhat farther from the beach.

Reply to  PCman999
September 25, 2022 6:10 am

re: “quick clean up and rebuild.”

Heh. Shovel ready =/= Ready for shovels

Reply to  _Jim
September 25, 2022 5:19 pm

Note I have since updated this post with further information and more photos. Case in point, that house in the photo at the top of the post ended up being completely destroyed.

RickWill
September 24, 2022 10:30 pm

Northern Hemisphere extreme weather will get worse. The entire NH has been through the least extreme weather it will experience in the whole 23kyr precession cycle. The weather will become more extreme for the next 9,000 years. Hotter, drier summers and cooler wetter winters with increasing proportion of precipitation occurring as snow. At least until the ice mountains reform.

The most important fact is that reducing fossil fuel combustion is not going to alter this situation in any way. Resilience requires understanding why weather is changing and adapting to the consequences of that change without squandering resources on religious zealotry.

Duker
Reply to  RickWill
September 24, 2022 11:25 pm

Little Ice Age weather was pretty bad…..but back then they blamed witches. Wait a minute

PCman999
Reply to  RickWill
September 25, 2022 12:42 am

What if CO2 was 2000ppm, would that make a difference?

I know it’s impossible to reach that level in any human timescale, but just as a thought experiment – CO2 back to Cretaceous levels, to stop the next ice age.

RickWill
Reply to  PCman999
September 25, 2022 1:10 am

NH is heading toward higher extremes as a result of increasing spring sunlight that increases summer temperature. Higher land temperature in summer will reduce precipition over land. NH autumn sunlight is declining. That means colder and wetter winters. Attached shows how solar EMR is changing at 30N solely due to orbital change.

If atmospheric mass was to increase substantially then the ocean surface temperature will increase. Each 30mb (3% increase in mass) increases ocean surface limit by 1C – now 30C so would reach 31C. 2,000ppm would increase surface temperature by less than 0.1C.

If CO2 was contributing to warming then the Southern Ocean would not be cooling and the Nino34 would not be zero trend.

Solar_EMR_30N.png
Last edited 2 months ago by RickWill
Matt Kiro
Reply to  RickWill
September 25, 2022 5:28 am

In regards to the change in the Earth’s orbit, does this mean the Earth is getting closer to the sun in NH autumn and farther away in NH spring? Decreasing and Increasing the amount of sunlight accordingly .

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Matt Kiro
September 25, 2022 6:16 am

Currently the Earth is closest to the Sun in NH winter, about 2 weeks after the winter solstice.

Matt Kiro
Reply to  Tom in Florida
September 25, 2022 6:41 am

Yes I know, I meant is it getting even closer and is that what is changing the amount of sunlight.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Matt Kiro
September 25, 2022 7:35 am

“does this mean the Earth is getting closer to the sun in NH autumn and farther away in NH spring?”
No, it goes the other way. Closest approach to the sun is moving towards NH spring.
Keep in mind that these changes take thousands of years so nothing we will notice in our life time.

Yirgach
Reply to  Matt Kiro
September 25, 2022 6:31 am

See https://pwg.gsfc.nasa.gov/stargaze/Sprecess.htm for a visual explanation of what Rick Will is describing. The article discusses the effects of precession on the climate as described by the MilankovichTheory.

Matt Kiro
Reply to  Yirgach
September 25, 2022 6:46 am

That was kind of my question, I’ve always thought the months have been moving out of alignment of when the seasons should start. Not that it has changed much in my short lifetime, just what we are taught to expect.

rah
Reply to  Matt Kiro
September 25, 2022 6:59 am

They’ll shift back. Long range forecast for this year shows December being colder from the heartland east than it has been for several years running. A white Christmas is in play for many places that have not seen one in quite some time.

Richard M
Reply to  PCman999
September 25, 2022 9:39 am

It would make a difference but not in the way climate science has been telling us. More CO2 does move more energy around within the atmosphere. The effect of changes in upward/downward flow is minimal due to other feedbacks.

The major effects are increased evapotranspiration and latitudinal warming. Lateral flow from the warm tropics to the cold poles would increase as a result of the 2nd law. This will warm the polar regions a little which will decrease atmospheric flows between the poles and tropics.

This will reduce extreme weather, droughts and floods. Winters will become milder as will nights. Growing seasons will increase in length.

We would likely see some Arctic ice melting, but Antarctica is just too cold to see much of an effect. Any melting would be offset by increased snowfall.

rah
September 24, 2022 11:46 pm

The Atlantic wave train got off to a slow start but it sure is churning out one disturbance after another now. Joe Bastardi said he doesn’t think that Ian will be the last to hit the N. American continent.

Unlike Fiona, which they had a pretty accurate track down days in advance, Ian still defies accurate track estimates and thus the cone of uncertainty is covering 90% of Florida as I write this.

The nightmare scenario would be for Ian to track with the windward side of the eye wall up Tampa Bay. The channeled storm surge would be devastating. After years of corruption the politicians have allowed development in the natural flood plains along the coast where development should never have been allowed.

Of course there can be no doubt what would be said if that nightmare came to pass. It’s all the fault of “climate change” would be the defensive line and the leftist press would never question and in fact amplify that stock answer.

Though Tampa is not out of the woods yet, Ian is still tracking due west at 13 mph as I write this and that is good thing because the longer it waits to turn north the further west it will go and that means more time in the Gulf and a longer track over water so that conditions can change to a state that is far less conducive for strengthening than they are now. It could mean the difference between a CAT IV and a CAT II or even weaker at landfall.

If I had to guess, and that is exactly what this is, Ian will come ashore somewhere along the pan handle.

Ireneusz Palmowski
Reply to  rah
September 25, 2022 1:53 am
rah
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 25, 2022 5:31 am

And so this morning as I write this Ian is a TS moving WNW at 12 mph. It appears the turn north has begun and consolidation has occurred. Rapid intensification likely to follow now.

I notice the cone of uncertainty has narrowed some and now covers about 75% of the state instead of the 90% it covered last night. So it appears that the southern 1/4 of the state is out of the woods.

There are some mountains in the portion of Cuba Ian is forecasted to pass over but the NHC seems to discount them as a factor for weakening the storm.

Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  rah
September 25, 2022 1:05 pm

Rapid intensification for Ian will not happen as the NHC is predicting, UNLESS planetary geomagnetic activity and solar wind speed picks up over the next 48 hours.
Planetary Geomagnetic activity is measured and recorded for 8 x 3 hours intervals for every 24 hours (UTC time and day) as K Index values.
Current planetary K index values (see attached graphic) are running around 2 to 3 for the last 24 hours and are now falling, as solar wind speed has fallen to a very low value around 300 km/sec (very low for an active period of SC25).
Planetary K values of at least 3 to 4 (or more) are needed for intensification of (Hurricane?) Ian before it makes a Florida landfall and begins dissipating on late Tuesday.

See NOAA website here
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

for Real Time Solar Wind conditions (measured currently by the DSCOVR satellite at the L1 orbit point). The fall off of solar wind speed portends a period of quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next few days.

25Sept2022_Kindex.jpg
Joel O'Bryan
Reply to  Joel O'Bryan
September 25, 2022 1:10 pm

(I am splitting up my post into multiple comments to avoid being sent to moderation for too many graphics or URLs)

No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

From the NOAA Geomagnetic activity forecast for the next 72 hours.
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/3-day-forecast

The NHC is wrong about Ian and RI. Ian is unlikely to undergo a rapid intensification as geomagnetic conditions will likely remain quiet through its landfall.

Geomag-forecast-72hours_25 Sept22.jpg
Tom in Florida
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 25, 2022 6:20 am

While the GFS model has Ian more west than the UKMET model, in general I have found that the UKMET model is likely to be more correct. If so, that puts Ian coming ashore around Tampa. Since I live just south of Tampa, I am hoping the GFS model is correct this time, with my apologies to those in the Panhandle.

Matt Kiro
Reply to  Tom in Florida
September 25, 2022 6:50 am

The panhandle and southern Alabama have some of the poorest areas of the country. They still haven’t recovered from the last hurricane through there. And while not as populated as the Tampa area the infrastructure is limited and has had less upkeep. There’s never a good place for a hurricane to come ashore.

rah
Reply to  Tom in Florida
September 25, 2022 7:12 am

Yep the European model shows a track further east than the GFS. But we shall see. Now that the storm has consolidated around a central low, track forecasting has become a bit easier. And the evidence of this is that already the NHC cone of uncertainty is considerably smaller than it was. But there are still a lot of moving pieces to the puzzle of the steering currents.

The reason the European and GFS have varied is that the European shows that trough to the north that is bringing the cooler weather to my neck of the woods in Indiana expects that trough to stay in place longer before heading east than the GFS does.

The timing of that trough moving to the east is the gorilla in the room influencing the steering current that determine what the actual track will be.

If the trough digs in and hangs on the European models track will be most likely. If it moves on east faster than the European indicates then the GFS model is will most likely be the more correct track.

So far the GFS has been more accurate as the storm has moved further south and west before starting to turn north than the European was showing.

Last edited 2 months ago by rah
griff
September 25, 2022 1:59 am

Just another piece of exceptional weather driven by climate change… Japan typhoon, Pakistan floods, Europe heatwave, Australia floods… last year’s 3 1 in 1,000 year floods and heatwaves.

Really all ‘just weather’?

Robert Maclellan
Reply to  griff
September 25, 2022 2:17 am

Fiona was the worst we have had in atlantic canada in 50 years so yes ‘just’ weather.

Reply to  Robert Maclellan
September 25, 2022 5:01 am

Certainly, in St John’s Newfoundland, on a cruise ship which stayed in port to avoid Fiona, we had steady but rather gentle rain Friday-Saturday, and a fine day on Saturday, albeit with some breezes.

Quick shower Sunday morning, looking cloudy but fine.

Auto.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  griff
September 25, 2022 4:50 am

yeah
really
just weather

Tom Abbott
Reply to  griff
September 25, 2022 5:17 am

“Really all ‘just weather’?”

Yeah, really. The numbers say it is business as usual.

Do you have any evidence showing it was anything other than Mother Nature?

Answer: No, you don’t.

Last edited 2 months ago by Tom Abbott
rah
Reply to  griff
September 25, 2022 5:20 am

Griff has no concept of history. Just another worthless lie from Griff.

saveenergy
Reply to  rah
September 25, 2022 8:21 am

Griff has no concept of history... anything !!

Matt Kiro
Reply to  griff
September 25, 2022 5:34 am

All those events have happened before… just because you can’t be bothered to look them up doesn’t mean it didnt happen.

rah
Reply to  griff
September 25, 2022 7:32 am

Ha! the Global ACE is only 78% of normal and even the N. Atlantic ACE is only 85% of normal.
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity | Ryan Maue (climatlas.com)

LdB
Reply to  griff
September 25, 2022 8:35 am

La Nina again this year and Eastern Australia will get flooded again … not a hard prediction 🙂

If Australia just went Net zero tomorrow then this could all be avoided hey Griff 🙂

Last edited 2 months ago by LdB
Doonman
Reply to  griff
September 25, 2022 12:06 pm

Weather drives the climate, not the other way around. You’ve got your definitions backwards.

Jeroen
Reply to  griff
September 27, 2022 12:36 am

I don’t think you understand how a 1 in 1000 years weather event works. There is always a 1 in 1000 year event going on somewhere.

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 25, 2022 1:59 am

Manila will be submerged tonight by super typhoon Noru.
La Nina will bring very heavy downpours to Southeast Asia.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Ireneusz Palmowski
September 26, 2022 4:43 pm

‘Bout to get real here in SW Florida, too.
Lot of people are gonna get smashed.
Hope I am not one of them.

Ireneusz Palmowski
September 25, 2022 2:19 am

Monsoon will hit Southeast Asia with great force.
comment image

September 25, 2022 2:54 am

Canadian building codes and town planning seem to be somewhat lacking for such a location!

Robert Maclellan
Reply to  bill bates
September 25, 2022 3:23 am

Port Aux Basques is a very old fishing village so everything is and was a short walking distance from the water. It could be iffy on any day depending on wind direction. No one is going to tell a newf he can’t do what he wishes.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Robert Maclellan
September 25, 2022 4:51 am

ma nature just did

Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 25, 2022 6:03 am

re: “ma nature just did”

Transitory event. Won’t happen next year, odds are. By the same token, it *could* repeat, however unlikely …

Trade-off is for a nice, scenic location coast-side, at the risk of an occasional wipe-out and total devastation. About the same odds (IDK), I suppose, of being hit by an F3 plus tornado here at the southern end of Tornado Alley here in Texas … more likely to suffer hail damage or damage from high winds though …

Robert Maclellan
Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 25, 2022 3:54 pm

We will see if they listen…they eventually did in wreckhouse which is only about 20 miles north. As to the name ‘wreckhouse ‘ that should be selfexplanatory.

Reply to  bill bates
September 25, 2022 5:23 pm

Keep in mind that the worst winds and waves from Fiona came at high tide in Newfoundland, compounding the damage from storm surge. Not nearly as much damage elsewhere from water (but plenty still from wind).

ozspeaksup
September 25, 2022 4:47 am

always amazes me people are allowed and DO build in such dangerous spots, large storms or not absolute beachfront or cliff edges are NOT spots to stick your dwelling. hope none of the floating homes had people in them;-( or pets.

Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 25, 2022 5:57 am

re: “always amazes me people are allowed and DO build in such dangerous spots,”

Oops! Was that an appeal to obtrusive, intrusive govt ‘regulation’ of some ppl’s actions, decisions and behaviors? Oh – asking for a friend …

Matt Kiro
Reply to  _Jim
September 25, 2022 6:55 am

As part of a law abiding society, the users of this site don’t promote anarchy, and we expect some government regulations and laws. Trying to control every aspect of every person’s life is not expected. But keep taking every point someone makes to the extreme, that’s just what all the climate pariahs do.

Reply to  Matt Kiro
September 25, 2022 7:33 am

ASKING for a friend again – do you feel you need some level of regulation in your life by a governmental ‘authority’, and are you white-knighting for somebody here?

I, myself (not my ‘friend’), lean quite libertarian in this matter, thinking that national ‘govt’ in the US ought to be limited as set out by the founders, with contracts being agreed upon among and between the states and or individuals as mutual beneficial interests arise – but, you don’t see it that way I presume?

An aside, I’ve been here on and off roughly a year after Katrina; I don’t recall seeing you around back quite that far … are you a recent arrival to WUWT?

Last edited 2 months ago by _Jim
Doonman
Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 25, 2022 12:12 pm

people are allowed

It always amazes me that in the 21st century there are still places where the populace is fine with government that still “allows” people to pursue their endeavors.

Reply to  ozspeaksup
September 25, 2022 2:18 pm

How about Tornado Alley? Just about all of the West Coast? Downwind of Yellowstone?

I happen to live in one of the VERY few places that is mostly “safe” from natural disasters. One earthquake some 50+ years ago (and I was annoyed because I slept right through it). One large scale flood event – which only took out foolish people who insisted on building in a flood plain (and several bridges that were designed and built by the lowest bidder). Otherwise, an occasional bit of very localized high wind that takes down utility poles and rips out poorly anchored carports, and sometimes hail that cracks a few car windows.

(Although many people here know where I live, I’m not going to mention it in this post – Joel and I don’t have the ROOM to put everyone that wants to live in a “safe” place.)

September 25, 2022 5:48 am

Looking for the ‘map’ of the track of Fiona into, across Canada – did I miss it? Don’t see it – might it be me and my browser?

Reply to  _Jim
September 25, 2022 5:25 pm

Added one in my update, check back on the original post.at PolarBearScience.

Duane
September 25, 2022 6:16 am

The Maritime provinces of Canada are well familiar with devastating storms with hurricane force winds, otherwise known as “nor’easters”. Happens every year from September to April.

John Bell
September 25, 2022 7:13 am

Look at that house, right on the edge of the ocean, what a surprise that one day the waves got high and ruined the house. I would never build there.

AndyHce
Reply to  John Bell
September 25, 2022 12:44 pm

12 meter storm surge may means it wasn’t very near the water before the storm.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  AndyHce
September 26, 2022 4:41 pm

Nearer than anyone else.
Near enough.
Too near.
Big storms are not an if, only a when.
I feel the same for this person as I do for people that live right on a river bank or floodplain.
They knew one day they were likely to pay for that great view when they bought the place.

September 25, 2022 8:48 am

I did a casual google for past weather events in the area, and came up with this: https://www.cnrs-scrn.org/northern_mariner/vol06/tnm_6_3_11-23.pdf. The paper dates from 1996, and the storm it describes took place in 1775. The journal appears to be legitimate, and still in business. If this is trustworthy, it offers no comfort to those who claim that bad weather is happening now that wasn’t happening 250 years ago.

John Hultquist
Reply to  Neil Lock
September 25, 2022 9:29 am

A major issue is that everyone knew Fiona was coming.
The Sept. 1775 storm arrived before TV, cell phones, and satellite images.
Also, the population(?) and value of houses then versus now is very different.

It doesn't add up...
September 25, 2022 10:50 am

A good way to look at the track and wind fields of Fiona. Use the timeline or click the waypoint dots.

https://zoom.earth/storms/fiona-2022/#overlays=wind

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