Second Place Winner WUWT Student Essay Contest

Following the first place winner, announced a couple of days ago, it is time for a second place winner to be announced.

We commend everyone who submitted an essay. All were read and appreciated, and it was very difficult to choose a winner as final scoring had some ties, and required a second round of scoring, which caused the week of delay

The second place winner is a young student in Tennessee.

A Man-Made Myth

Claire S,

            There is a myth that many people believe to be true, and it leads some to hysteria. These people have blocked traffic on busy interstates and glued or tied themselves to objects in the middle of sporting events, all because of this myth they believe to be true. What is this myth that would lead people to do such things? The answer is global warming. Many people in our society believe that Earth’s temperature is steadily rising and causing all kinds of disasters as a result. They believe that humans are causing Earth’s temperature to rise by emitting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere. However, these people have sadly been led astray and do not know that catastrophic man-caused global warming is just a hoax. We know this because of three main facts. There was natural variability of temperatures in the past before man-made carbon dioxide influences, model forecast temperatures have been inaccurate, and the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has been shown to follow, not lead, changes in Earth’s temperature.

            History has shown there has been natural variability of the earth’s temperatures before the Industrial Revolution and man-made carbon dioxide influences. In fact, archaeological finds have shown that the earth was typically warmer in the past than it is today. During the Medieval Warm Period, which was between 900 and 1200 AD, the temperatures were higher. Then the temperatures dropped and then came what we now call The Little Ice Age in the 1700s and 1800s. (Burnett, 2020). The temperatures are now on the rise again, proving that the earth’s average temperature goes in phases between higher and lower. Moreover, artifacts have recently been uncovered by thawing ice in the mountains of southern Norway. The oldest ones date back to 4100 BC, and the most recent date back to approximately AD 1300 at the end of the Medieval Warm Period. (Burnett, 2020). These artifacts were clearly deposited when no ice covered the ground in that region, and the present temperatures are only now exposing the artifacts, proving that temperatures then were the same as or warmer than they are now. Eight-hundred-year-old penguin remains have been found in a patch of melting ice along the Antarctic coast. A land route in Norway has been found because of melting ice, and researchers believe Vikings who inhabited the area used it often in a warmer period much like today before snow and ice blocked it up. Many other near-perfectly preserved animal and human remains have been found in the Arctic and glacial alpine regions in the past decade due to warmer temperatures. Scientists have found evidence that ancient temperatures exceeded current as well as worst-case projected temperatures after studying materials from three lakes on the Svalbardo Archipelago in the Arctic Ocean. According to the scientists, approximately 10,000 years ago temperatures peaked at 7 degrees Celsius warmer than the present. (Burnett, 2020.) Archaeology and history have proven that the earth’s temperature has fluctuated over the years, long before humans began releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and we have nothing to be alarmed about.

            It has also been proven that model forecast temperatures have been inaccurate. Models are predicting temperatures that are a lot higher than they really are. When model forecasts have been compared with reality, over a period of only a few years, they have been shown to be forecasting temperatures that are too warm. The farther out in time that a model predicts, the less accurate it will be. Studies have found a large degree of bias towards warmer projections, and CMIP5 temperature models warm 4 to 5 times faster than actual observed temperature data. They also predict that as the earth warms, crops will be damaged and global farming practices will have to be changed. However, we are seeing rises in the overall production of the staple crops of corn, wheat, and rice as the earth warms (Figure 1). Additionally, there is a considerable amount of warming bias in the CMIP6’s tropospheric readings, and these biases are linked to biases in surface temperatures. Since the CMIP5 models warm much faster than reality, there is no improvement between them and the CMIP6 models. (Lueken, 2022). The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has refused to acknowledge these problems with the models and allows the media to spread inaccurate information. Sadly, many people are living in fear because of these lies, and governments are making policies that have profound and harmful impacts on people. (Watts, 2021). These harmful policies are based on inaccurate predictions of the earth’s climate sensitivity to increased carbon dioxide in the air. Model forecast temperatures are inaccurate, and it’s time we acknowledge the truth and stop relying on models as a basis of climate policymaking.

            Finally, carbon dioxide is not a thermostat for the earth’s temperature. In fact, there are studies that have shown that temperature rises have caused carbon dioxide levels to rise, not the other way around (Watts, 2010). People claim that since carbon dioxide levels are higher than they have ever been, it must be causing climate change. But this cannot be possible because the earth was as warm or warmer during the Medieval Warm Period. Despite what many believe, humans have very little effect on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions dropped a considerable amount due to a lack of travel and lockdowns (Figure 2).  However, the amount of carbon dioxide in the air has steadily risen despite this (Figure 3). (Watts, 2021.) Based on this knowledge, man-contributed carbon dioxide emissions have very little, if any, impact on the earth’s temperature. Also, if we look at the earth’s atmosphere, we see that it is made up of 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.04% naturally-emitted carbon dioxide, and only 0.01% man-contributed carbon dioxide. The amount is so small it couldn’t possibly cause the rising of the earth’s temperature. (Lehr, 2019). In fact, rising carbon dioxide levels have only benefited the earth, not harmed it. More carbon dioxide makes more building blocks for plants to thrive and grow bigger, better, and greener. (Legates, 2018). Man-contributed emissions of carbon dioxide do not cause global warming, and we are needlessly hurting ourselves by instituting carbon taxes and other harmful policies.

            Catastrophic global warming caused by humans is a man-made myth. We know this because archaeologists and careful research have shown that there are natural temperature variations and phases. Artifacts have been found buried beneath ice and snow that is only now starting to melt, meaning they must have gotten there when the ice wasn’t there. Computer models, such as the CMIP5 and CMIP6 have been known to predict higher temperatures than compared to reality. Climate change scientists know about this, but they refuse to acknowledge it while the media spreads inaccurate information. Finally, humans do not cause the earth’s temperature to rise by emitting carbon dioxide. Carbon taxes and other harmful climate policies are being implemented around the world, and yet they do nothing to lower the temperature. Man-made catastrophic global warming doesn’t exist, and it is time to stop hurting ourselves by acting as if it does.

Figure 1. This graph shows the overall world production of wheat, rice, and maize from 1960 to 2020. Source: https://climaterealism.com/2022/03/inside-climate-news-confuses-models-with-reality/

Figure2. U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide emissions by end-use sector (2000-2020). Source: https://climaterealism.com/2021/04/eia-u-s-co2-emissions-declined-11-in-2020-no-change-in-rising-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/

Figure 3. The rise of CO2 and the temperature. Source: https://carbon-sense.com/2013/10/14/co2-vs-temperature/

Works Cited

Baraniuk, C. “Climate Change Has Revealed a Huge Haul of Ancient Arrows in Norway.” NewScientist, 25 Nov. 2020, https://www.newscientist.com/article/2260700-climate-change-has-revealed-a-huge-haul-of-ancient-arrows-in-norway/

Blakemore, Erin. “Lost Viking “Highway” Revealed by Melting Ice.” National Geographic, 15 April, 2020, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/lost-viking-highway-revealed-melting-ice

Burnett, H. Sterling. “New Archaeological Finds Shows Earth Is Typically Warmer than Today.”   ClimateRealism, 2 Dec. 2020, https://climaterealism.com/2020/12/new-archaeological-finds-shows-earth-is-typically-warmer-than-today/.

EIA. “Monthly Energy Review.” EIA, 26 July, 2022. https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/

G.M., Willem. “Early Holocene Temperature Oscillations Exceed Amplitude of Observed and Projected Warming in Svalbard Lakes.” AGU, 3 Dec., 2019. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL084384

Lueken, Linnea. “Inside Climate News Confuses Models with Reality – ClimateRealism.” ClimateRealism, climaterealism.com, 31 Mar., 2022, https://climaterealism.com/2022/03/inside-climate-news-confuses-models-with-reality/.

Singer, Andy. “Video: CO2 Is Not a Pollutant! – ClimateRealism.” ClimateRealism, climaterealism.com, 31 Aug. 2018, https://climaterealism.com/2018/08/co2-is-not-a-pollutant/.

Singer, Andy. “Video: The Truth About Carbon Dioxide and Global Temperature – ClimateRealism.” ClimateRealism, climaterealism.com, 9 Aug., 2019, https://climaterealism.com/2019/08/video-the-truth-about-carbon-dioxide-and-global-temperature/.

Taylor, James. “Antarctic Penguin Remains Show Present Temperatures Are Normal.” ClimateRealism, 2 Oct., 2020. https://climaterealism.com/2020/10/antarctic-penguin-remains-show-present-temperatures-are-normal/

Watts, Anthony. “Two Studies Confirm Climate Models Are Overheated – ClimateRealism.” ClimateRealism, climaterealism.com, 17 Aug. 2021, https://climaterealism.com/2021/08/two-studies-confirm-climate-models-are-overheated/.

Taylor, James. “CO2 Levels Highest in 3.6 Million Years, Yet Temperatures Are Not Following Suit – ClimateRealism.” ClimateRealism, climaterealism.com, 21 Apr. 2021, https://climaterealism.com/2021/04/co2-levels-highest-in-3-6-million-years-yet-temperatures-are-not-following-suit/.

“The Carbon Sense Coalition » CO2 vs Temperature.” The Carbon Sense Coalition » CO2 vs Temperature, carbon-sense.com, https://carbon-sense.com/2013/10/14/co2-vs-temperature/. Accessed 26 July 2022.

Watts, Anthony. “A Study: The Temperature Rise Has Caused the CO2 Increase, Not the Other Way around – Watts Up With That?” Watts Up With That?, wattsupwiththat.com, 9 June 2010, https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/09/a-study-the-temperature-rise-has-caused-the-co2-increase-not-the-other-way-around/.

Watts, Anthony. “EIA: U.S. CO2 Emissions Declined 11% in 2020 – No Change in Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide – ClimateRealism.” ClimateRealism, climaterealism.com, 15 Apr. 2021, https://climaterealism.com/2021/04/eia-u-s-co2-emissions-declined-11-in-2020-no-change-in-rising-atmospheric-carbon-dioxide/.

4.7 26 votes
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Mike Dubrasich
September 9, 2022 7:37 pm

Excellent. Clear, concise, right on every point. Well done. There is hope for future generations after all.

rd50
Reply to  Mike Dubrasich
September 10, 2022 6:23 pm

I agree. Well done.
However I would ask the the graph showing CO2 at Mauna Loa with Temperature be updated to 2021 or 2022. The graph stopped at 2013. I agree with the first Negative early on, then the first Positive following it. However following this Positive with a Negative is too short a period when stopping at 2013. Must be updated to currently available data in 2021 and 2022 also available from the Climate4you web site.
I am surprised that this graph published by Climate4you web site is the only graph available showing the possible relationship between these variables: CO2 and Temperature.
If there is such a relationship why nobody else presents a graph showing this?

John Aqua
September 9, 2022 7:40 pm

Brilliant!!

James Stagg
September 9, 2022 8:41 pm

Well-written, clear and points made well!

Thank you!

Gunga Din
September 9, 2022 9:28 pm

“Finally, humans do not cause the earth’s temperature to rise by emitting carbon dioxide. Carbon taxes and other harmful climate policies are being implemented around the world, and yet they do nothing to lower the temperature. Man-made catastrophic global warming doesn’t exist, and it is time to stop hurting ourselves by acting as if it does.”

Some will but who actually could argue with that?
Well done.

Reply to  Gunga Din
September 10, 2022 2:11 am

Denying AGW in an effort to refute CAGW,
is an argument used by people
with no knowledge of climate science.

mkelly
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 6:33 am

Wrong!

Coach Springer
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 6:47 am

When refutation is not the same as denial.

Philip CM
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 6:50 am

Get back to me when you’ve taken the tax dollars out of the (C)AGW equation. We’ll see how much man is blamed for climate change then.

Mr.
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 10:13 am

Richard, I too accept that human activities have had influences on climates, but only through broadscale alterations of landscapes, flora and fauna.

CO2 at any levels as the control knob for climates is arrant nonsense.

What’s your basis for acceptance of AGW?

Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 3:50 pm

People with no knowledge of climate science include President Biden, Al Gore and John Kerry!

They should listen to people like Claire S.

Philip CM
September 9, 2022 10:39 pm

but, but, if you fall in line with the CAGW banner wavers, there is so much free money (read taxpayer dollars) floating around that one cannot help but secure a solid paycheck. At this point who cares what is true or not true. There’s absolute billions in the wind up for the taking. Global warming, global warming, global warming, rah, rah, rah! Everybody, join in. /S

Vince Bevilacqua
September 10, 2022 12:13 am

Figure 3 is used to show that despite the drop in CO2 emissions from the Covid-19 pandemic that CO2 in the air still increased, but the chart only extends through 2015, far before Covid-19 struck.

September 10, 2022 2:09 am

“They believe that humans are causing Earth’s temperature to rise by emitting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere.”

And they are correct — there is plenty of evidence to support AGW, including the pattern of warming since the 1970s, with higher TMINs and not much change to TMAX. The author’s statement is wrong

“Despite what many believe, humans have very little effect on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.” 

Humans have increased CO2 by about +50% since the 1800s
The author’s statement is so wrong as to make himself appear to be a fool.

” CMIP5 temperature models warm 4 to 5 times faster than actual observed temperature data.”

The CMIP5 average model predicted roughly a 2x faster warming rate than observations. The author is so wrong as to make himself appear to be a fool.

” In fact, there are studies that have shown that temperature rises have caused carbon dioxide levels to rise, not the other way around (Watts, 2010).”

These studies are reporting the result of natural, large changes to ocean temperatures, completely unrelated to manmade CO2 emissions. The author is confused.

“if we look at the earth’s atmosphere, we see that it is made up of 78% nitrogen, 21% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.04% naturally-emitted carbon dioxide, and only 0.01% man-contributed carbon dioxide.”
0,01% out of 0.04% is 25%

At least 25% is close to the truth, which is 34%
415ppm CO2 (100%)
140ppm manmade CO2 (34%)
280ppm natural CO2 (66%)

If this article, filled with errors, is worthy of a second prize,
then I’d hate to read the third prize paper. We can not refute CAGW
with so many factual errors easily spotted by a fact checker
There is no excuse for such inaccuracy.

Last edited 27 days ago by Richard Greene
Tim Spence
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 5:04 am

I don’t think there is any way to confirm what exact percentage of the CO2 is created by humans and the argument is that temps lead CO2. It might be confusing you.

Reply to  Tim Spence
September 10, 2022 5:21 am

CO2 in 1850 estimated at 280ppm
CO2 in 2022 measured at 415 ppm
Increase is +135ppm or +48%
Nature is a net CO2 absorber
Therefore +48% (135 / 280) is from manmade CO2 emissions
Case closed

Temperatures lead CO2 only as a RESULT of
large natural changes to ocean temperatures,
most likely caused by changes of planetary geometry.

Manmade CO2 emissions CAUSE temperature increases

They are two different processes that happen at the same time

Natural CO2 releases from the ocean are tiny with a +1 degree C, warming in the past 100 years — perhaps +10ppm to +15ppm — and they are already included in the net CO2 absorption by nature.
Case closed

This is basic climate science
It is called AGW
There is much evidence of AGW
The Climate Howlers are not wrong about everything.

There is no evidence of CAGW.
CAGW is just a prediction, wrong for 50+ years so far
CAGW predictions IS WHERE WE SHOULD FOCUS.

FALSE ATTEMPTS TO REFUTE AGW,
IN AN effort refute CAGW, is a loser’s game.

Last edited 27 days ago by Richard Greene
Tim Spence
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 6:03 am

You have case closed before engaging brain. Temps lead CO2. Temps have increased, C02 has increased. You have the cart in front of the horse.

Reply to  Tim Spence
September 10, 2022 9:57 am

You are confused

CO2 as a side effect of natural climate change
CO2 is outgassed from oceans when the temperatures warms a lot from natural causes. That is one result of natural warming.

Manmade CO2 as a cause of AGW climate change:
CO2 is also a cause of warming, when added to the troposphere by manmade CO2 emissions. Increased greenhouse gases impede Earth’s ability to cool itself. That is reflected in higher TMIN temperatures at dawn.

Basic climate science
You have to learn this is you want to refute CAGW,

Drake
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 10:16 am

“Basic climate science”

Why do you ad the word “climate” to your statement?

If it is real science, then it is science.

Climate science is just scam “science”, not REAL science, and the continuous failed “projections” are proof enough that that is the case.

Temperatures have been rising since the middle of the little ice age. Temperature rise proceeded the rise of CO2.

Simple reality, you know, something that has no relation to “climate” science.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 12, 2022 4:45 am

“Manmade CO2 as a cause of AGW climate change”

I would say that there is no evidence that Man-made CO2 is causing the Earth’s climate to change.

We can’t even say for sure what the magnitude of the effect of CO2 is on the atmosphere. And we can’t say for sure whether the ultimate effect is warming or cooling.

You are assuming the CO2 greenhouse effect is causing enough warming to affect the Earth’s climate. There’s no evidence for that.

mkelly
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 6:52 am

Richard says:…”— there is plenty of evidence to support AGW…”.

And there is plenty to say there is no such thing. Such as…

2657BE7A-96A3-4F57-AC36-4957986BC919.jpeg
Last edited 27 days ago by mkelly
Reply to  mkelly
September 10, 2022 10:03 am

The post 1975 warming in the Northern Hemisphere fits the expected pattern of greenhouse warming:

Mainly higher TMIN
Mainly during colder, drier months
Mainly in colder higher latitude nations

Exactly what CO2 emissions would do

There is no other logical explanation
Not increased solar energy
Not planetary geometry

Not any of the others:

The following variables are likely to influence Earth’s climate:

1)   Earth’s orbital and       
    orientation variations
 
2)   Changes in ocean circulation
             Including ENSO and others 
 
3)   Solar activity and irradiance,
including clouds, volcanic and manmade aerosols, plus possible effects of cosmic rays and extraterrestrial dust

4)   Greenhouse gas emissions

5)   Land use changes
         (cities growing, logging, crop irrigation, etc.) 

6)    Unknown causes of variations of a
       complex, non-linear system

7)  Unpredictable natural and 
       manmade catastrophes
 
8) Climate measurement errors
    (unintentional or deliberate)

9) Interactions and feedbacks,
     involving two or more variables.

mkelly
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 12:32 pm

I see by your answer you didn’t read or failed to grasp the words in the red box from the paper I posted.

It says the post 1980 warming is neither unusual in amplitude or rate. I know you said 1975, but close enough.

So if it was 2.5 degrees warmer thousands of years ago and the warming today is not unusual, then contrary to what you say there could be other logical (or unknown) reasons for any today.

Galileo9
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 3:45 pm

I read the arguments for AGW and for natural climate variation and to be honest I’ve not witnessed anything personally that has made up my mind one way or another. I’m 64 years old and lived in the SW of England by the sea for all of my life, now if the climate was changing by the rate many “climate” scientists were predicting then I’m sure I would have noticed something by now? The only thing that has changed over the years is the media’s reporting and especially the propaganda put out by the BBC and also statements stamped “Fact checked” by Facebook. When ever I hear or read the phrase “some scientists say” or “studies show” I know that this is probably not peer reviewed or biased data gathered to prove a theory. All I know is that here in the UK some seasons are better than others, some years the weather is better (or worse) than others and none of the predictions for the end of the world over the last 40 years have come to pass. So I will just carry on taking an academic interest in “the weather” and ignoring tick boxes which ask if I want to off set my Carbon Footprint.

ScarletMacaw
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 11, 2022 6:29 am

“The post 1975 warming in the Northern Hemisphere fits the expected pattern of greenhouse warming:
Mainly higher TMIN
Mainly during colder, drier months
Mainly in colder higher latitude nations
Exactly what CO2 emissions would do
There is no other logical explanation”

Wrong!

Poor measurements because of urban warming explains all three.

You (the liars you are paraphrasing) also cherry-pick the warming start date and CO2 fraction. The 285 ppm is only an estimate, so not a fact. The warming since the 1800’s is mostly before CO2 enrichment of the atmosphere.

And yes, they are LIARS!

  1. They reduced the 1930s-1970s cooling to a mere 0.1 degrees. There is no way that scientists (real scientists not the corrupted AGW clergy) would have considered a possibility of the start of another glaciation with such a small temperature drop, it had to be much larger. FLAT OUT LIE #1!
  2. They claim an acceleration in sea level rise. Almost all (maybe all, I haven’t checked every one) of the tide gauges show a constant rate of sea level rise for as long as they have existed, some since the late 1800s. FLAT OUT LIE #2!

Does more CO2 cause warming? Probably. If someone asked me if spitting in the ocean raises the sea level, I’d have to say yes.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  ScarletMacaw
September 12, 2022 4:49 am

Good comment!

Mike Dubrasich
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 8:29 pm

No, Dick, you are the fool and a rude jerk to boot. Every contention you make is wrong.

There is no “evidence” to support AGW, or more precisely the “evidence” is cooked models and nothing near to scientific proof. The models have been wrong and are wrong. Even a fool like you should know this.

Humanity has had little effect on atmospheric CO2 levels, as the author points out. CO2 lags temperature, which began to rise 150 years ago absent industrial human emissions.

Your smarter than thou attitude is why the free world is careening down towards social and economic collapse. Go huddle in the cold and dark in your mud hut and leave decent people alone.

Claire, illegitimi non carborundum: don’t let the rude jerks wear you down. You will find the cockroaches come crawling out whenever you challenge authority, especially the self-possessed ignorant ones. They will cast rude aspersions and attempt to silence you with insults. Rise above them, stand your ground, and continue to have hope.

Besides which, warmer is better. The “crisis” is false on many levels.

Sam Capricci
September 10, 2022 2:09 am

I blame several sources for the hysteria today.

First bureaucrats and governments who want more power at any cost. Secondly academia that seems to be in constant search for research grants. Thirdly a media that seems to be enamored with every larger and more controlling government as long as the government is in agreement with their goals.

Very few people are interested in the truth. I would say very well done with this essay!

Reply to  Sam Capricci
September 10, 2022 10:07 am

I blame the people who lived with mild harmless global warming since 1975 and continue to believe future warming will be rapid and dangerous. They deny their own experience with global warming. And believe everything their government tells them. Whose fault is that?

TeaPartyGeezer
Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 9:40 pm

Eh??? I want to upvote this comment, but your posts up to this point have been so very wrong, not to mention rude. Why are you suddenly making sense now?

Reply to  Richard Greene
September 10, 2022 11:28 pm

IIRC someone here at WUWT mentioned “Dupes vs Knaves”:
The general public is being duped [gaslighted] so they don’t know any more than what is relentlessly screamed at them by the “Marx-stream media” [I stole that term] while the knaves [aka climate scientolgists], who should know better, remain quiet so to get their next round of grant funding. Rinse & Repeat.
The availability cascade keeps the public duped.

David Dibbell
September 10, 2022 4:16 am

Thank you, Claire S. Please keep on challenging the unsound claims.

Dana H. Saylor Sr.
September 10, 2022 7:32 am

Kudos to the author. It’s encouraging that there are those in the younger generation aware of the human caused climate change deception. Obviously, the science is not the issue! When politics gets involved its a good guess money is involved in some way. SO, if we want to know the truth, FOLLOW THE MONEY….

H.R.
September 10, 2022 10:27 am

Very good!

I extend my sympathy to the judges. I can see why it was so tough picking a winner and ranking the submissions. Maybe a few of the other entries can be posted as well sometime down the road.

September 15, 2022 5:58 am

How Dare You!

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