German Experts Warn of Grid Instability…” Conventional Power Plants Needed for a Long Time to Come”

From the NoTricksZone

By P Gosselin

Germany’s massive, subsidized expansion of electricity generation from renewable sources has squeezed out conventional generation units out of the market. Two experts warn of growing grid instability.

Quo Vadis, Grid Stability?

Original article at Die kalte Sonne

The conclusion of the two is very alarming. Here, too, not a word about “storage facilities galore. Here, reality clashes with the wishful thinking of some green energy protagonists who think there is enough storage and that all that needs to be done is to change the “mindset,” as Patrick Graichen put it.

The continued expansion of highly volatile renewable energy sources and the further displacement of more conventional generation units from the market are making the power grid increasingly sensitive to weather-related fluctuations. Unusual weather phenomena such as dark doldrums pose significant challenges to the security and stability of supply to the power grid. The largely intermittent output of solar and wind farms does not correlate with fluctuations in electricity demand.

The excess supply of renewable energy should be buffered during periods of low electricity demand, and the stored capacity should be injected back into the grid during periods of high electricity demand when fewer renewable sources are available. However, large battery energy storage systems, which have been promisingly announced, are still not on the horizon due to their low capacity and maturity, as well as their exorbitantly high cost of deployment.”

At this point, at the latest, some people’s ears should be ringing:

As long as economic energy storage systems are not established, even proponents of the current direction of Germany’s energy transition will have to admit that reliable conventional power plants will be needed for a long time to come.”

This article is also an urgent reading recommendation for politicians and experts who like to be interviewed.

The authors also conclude:

The importance of nuclear power plants for security of supply in base-load operation and their and their ability to operate the grid in parallel with renewable renewable energies have been demonstrated. The nuclear power plants appear to be well suited for the energy made to achieve the future goal of carbon-free power generation. However, the Atomic Energy Act foresees an early end to nuclear power generation by the end of 2022.”

So without nuclear power in Germany, grid stability problems are a future certainty.

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Ken
August 27, 2022 10:09 pm

“So without nuclear power in Germany, grid stability problems are a future certainty.”
or
So without nuclear power in Germany, grid stability is stuffed. There,that’s fixed it!

Joe Gordon
August 27, 2022 10:26 pm

The politicians will never admit that wind and solar are unreliable. It’s just a matter of spending more money.

If they have to destroy every single tree in the Black Forest to make room for another idle wind turbine, they’ll do it with smiles on their faces and blame everyone but themselves when prices keep rising and there’s no power on a cold winter night.

H.R.
Reply to  Joe Gordon
August 27, 2022 10:45 pm

Oh absolutely, Joe. And they’ll blame those evil, ‘caahbon’ spewing energy companies, whose plants they shuttered, for not providing reliable backup and profiteering… and their feet smell funny, and their children are ugly.

“Don’t blame us. We’re adding windmills as fast as we can.”

Timbotoo
Reply to  Joe Gordon
August 28, 2022 3:59 am

We are now being lectured by the government (Spain) to use energy “responsibly” as though it’s all our fault we’re in crisis.

Thinking about it, they’re right as we keep voting for the same mediocrities.

Nicholas McGinley
Reply to  Timbotoo
August 28, 2022 7:01 am

“That “we” needs to be in scare quotes, eh?
Not only because it ain’t no kinda royal “we”, as in “me”, but more like a “them” kind of “we”, no? Yeah. Not only that, but on account of because*…um…did we really vote for them? How does a majority Center/Right country keep voting for the far left?

  • h/t to Barbara Stanwyck, aka the hottest babe who ever lived, aka Sugerpuss O’Shea,and Billy Wilder…for the singularly captivating malapropism “On account of because”. When can the world get back to solving important questions, such as “Did 34-year-old Barbara Stanwyck slip Gary Cooper some tongue in that scene from Ball of Fire”, or “Is 34 really the prime of life for a gorgeous babe, or is it 33”, eh? Upvotes count as a “yes”. Down votes prove you have no soul.
  • https://youtu.be/OwcxH46a16g
Last edited 3 months ago by Nicholas McGinley
paul courtney
Reply to  Nicholas McGinley
August 28, 2022 2:47 pm

Mr. M: I never use the vote things, but for Barbara Stanwyck, words fail me. A great actress on account of because her legs went all the way up!

michael hart
Reply to  paul courtney
August 29, 2022 5:33 am

Nurse!!
shorturl.at/DNSVW

Reply to  Joe Gordon
August 28, 2022 5:14 am

In any situation, even Russia, there is only so far that politicians can go in lying to their nations.

In this case, the lies are an existential threat, and even politicians dont actually want to destroy the country that gives them a job. And as Mussolini found out, there is no shortage of lamp posts.

And the UK has shown that there is one way to escape the unelected EU.

Fran
Reply to  Leo Smith
August 28, 2022 1:14 pm

You have not considered Trudeau when you state that there is a limit to lying for politicians

Robert MacLellan
Reply to  Fran
August 28, 2022 6:26 pm

Trudeau does not lie so much as ‘Experience reality differently’ from the rest of us /s.

No one
Reply to  Robert MacLellan
August 28, 2022 9:26 pm

When this becomes a widespread phenomena, the colloquial term used is Trudeaumania.

StephenP
Reply to  Joe Gordon
August 28, 2022 8:05 am

I love the expression “dark doldrums” as it describes the problem exactly, although I would not call the situation “unusual” as at least in the UK as we have experienced it almost every day/night for the past month.
After the dry summer hydro would have been problematic, as is happening now even in Norway, so thank goodness we still have gas, some nuclear and coal.
If the activists had had their way over the past ten years we would have been truly up the creek without a paddle.
As it is we are having to put our hands deep into our pockets to keep the energy flowing.
Someone somewhere is making a lot of money.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  StephenP
August 28, 2022 6:21 pm

Shall we just stop calling them activists, or alarmists, and call them Luddites, or, maybe, neo-Luddites?

No one
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
August 28, 2022 9:29 pm

A special branch of anarchotyranny – the anarcholudditcaltyrants.

Eng_Ian
Reply to  No one
August 29, 2022 3:08 pm

I prefer to use the term Hua for those who won’t see. Head Up ….

MarkW
Reply to  Joe Gordon
August 28, 2022 8:20 am

It will just be more proof that capitalism has failed and only socialism/communism can save humanity.

Slowroll
Reply to  MarkW
August 28, 2022 9:56 am

More like Milton Freidman’s observation that if the socialists controlled North Africa, the Sahara would have a shortage of sand.

willem Post
Reply to  Joe Gordon
August 30, 2022 1:21 pm

This article describes in detail what happened in New England during a cold period.
There was insufficient natural gas in storage, so fuel oil had to be used
When fuel oil almost ran out, increased coal had to be used.
This entire situation arose, due to environmental zealots not allowing the building of enough natural gas pipelines from Pennsylvania to New England, and not allowing the building of sufficient gas and oil storage near gas/oil-fired CCGT plants.
This is analogous to Germany’s ENERGIEWENDE idiocy, etc.
Biden is reinventing THAT wheel, with his Inflation Reduction Law, AKA, get re-elected law.
COLD WEATHER OPERATION IN NEW ENGLAND DECEMBER 24, 2017 TO JANUARY 8, 2018
https://www.windtaskforce.org/profiles/blogs/cold-weather-operation-in-new-england-december-24-2017-to-january

Rod Evans
August 27, 2022 11:14 pm

Today August 28th 07.00 wind is generating 1GW of grid power here in the UK. There is a fleet capacity of 27GW installed. It has been at this level for over 24 hrs. Details here https://gridwatch.co.uk/
One of the great advances of civilisation, was the evolution of energy availability beyond weather provision. We have enjoyed reliable plentiful low cost energy for generations. That good fortune, a demonstration of human ingenuity, is about to be thrown away in a period of political lunacy.
We have not collectively seen this scale of religious zealotry since before the enlightenment and the follow on evolution of science.
We are being prepped here in the UK to expect electricity prices to be £0.86/kWh this winter that is over a $/kWh and no apology from state authorities driving these insane policies forward.
The new PM about to be put into office will be Liz Truss come September 6th. She had better realise she has one overarching objective ahead of her. That objective is to shut off the Green zealotry that has driven the economy onto the rocks and will result in huge winter casualties across the whole of society.
We have to get back to sane safe energy policies as an absolute priority. More wind turbines and more solar arrays in our farmlands, is not the answer, to current or future energy needs.

Last edited 3 months ago by Rod Evans
Bryan A
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 27, 2022 11:42 pm

Hate to say it but the Monarchy may fail before Charles gets to take the reigns. If Brits begin dying in hoards due to draconian green energy policies, the populace will surely rise up.

Rod Evans
Reply to  Bryan A
August 28, 2022 12:03 am

Bryan, Monarchy here in UK is a rather abstract concept. It has largely run out of meaningful existence. Charles is a joke character who talks to trees and thinks being a Tampon is his perfect preferred role. Who are we to argue….

Dave Fair
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 28, 2022 10:19 am

Hey, there! Tampons have a useful purpose.

Julian Flood
Reply to  Bryan A
August 28, 2022 12:07 am

Never! Too busy watching Celebrity Island Bake Out.

JF

Nick Graves
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 28, 2022 1:38 am

We might need Trevor Bayliss to come out of retirement and invent the clockwork TV for that.

Rusty
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 28, 2022 4:56 am

When power cuts come and when they realise watching 2 hours of drivel in a cosy temperature has cost them £££ and they won’t be able to afford anything other than basic food they’ll be out on the streets.

We are heading towards on hell of a world-wide recession.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Rusty
August 28, 2022 10:21 am

They’ll blame it on Putin and capitalism. Watch for energy supply nationalization.

Last edited 3 months ago by Charlie Skeptic
Redge
Reply to  Bryan A
August 28, 2022 12:16 am

We have a constitutional monarchy, it’s not the Queen that passes draconian green energy policies into law, it’s the politicians.

alastair gray
Reply to  Redge
August 28, 2022 12:30 am

That is true but the Charles Windsor loon want to take back the absolutism of monarchy in liege to the WEF where he is treated as a prophet who walks on water while they scheme to emasculate our sovereignty for ghastly totalitarian world government by an elite. all of our politicians are on that bus

Ron Long
Reply to  alastair gray
August 28, 2022 3:13 am

You guys are scaring the hell out of me! My genetics are from Britain and I’m wondering when my train is going to jump off the tracks and crash? Yikes!

michael hart
Reply to  Ron Long
August 29, 2022 5:03 am

Ron, everyone in the UK knows Charles is a nut job. He is not even fit for launching ships or opening supermarkets.

Yirgach
Reply to  michael hart
August 29, 2022 10:37 am

Allow me to offer you the services of our current nutjob from the USA. Also includes a very large staff known as The Deep State.
You won’t regret it, trust me.

Bryan A
Reply to  Redge
August 28, 2022 12:28 pm

Yep, that would be Parliament, and the anointed few. It is however the Monarchy that Will pay a price in the eyes of the world and the Brits at large

Julian Flood
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 28, 2022 12:03 am

Gridwatch Templar has a less snazzy but easier to understand display.

Yesterday I saw wind at 0.76GW.

JF

Redge
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 28, 2022 12:13 am

And here’s the view from IAmKate

According to Wiki the UK is one of the best places in the world to install wind turbines (and probably one the worst places for solar 😂)

We have 25.5GW of wind power and 13.2GW of solar, so combined we have 38.7GW of unreliable energy.

How does that pan out over the course of a year?

The UK managed a whopping 8.18GW!

Roughly 21%.

If we add even more unreliable energy (as greens advocate) we’d need to install almost 200GW of wind and solar to have any chance of meeting our yearly energy needs.

And we’d still need reliable nuclear and good old fossil fuels as a backup.

When will the extreme left realise the answer to the non-problem is not wind and solar?

(It’s a rhetorical question)

Screenshot 2022-08-28 075441.jpg
Bryan A
Reply to  Redge
August 28, 2022 12:30 pm

But that would still only be at Noon on Tuesday Septober 32nd

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 28, 2022 3:47 am

“Today August 28th 07.00 wind is generating 1GW of grid power here in the UK. There is a fleet capacity of 27GW installed. It has been at this level for over 24 hrs.”

How can anyone, other than those profiting from these things, justify building more of them?

Windmills cannot power a modern civilization.

H.R.
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 28, 2022 5:33 am

Tom Abbott: How can anyone, other than those profiting from these things, justify building more of them?”


It has been pointed out to me in comments by others here that some people truly believe that if the current level of wind and solar aren’t producing enough, we just need to double or triple the amount of wind and solar and we’ll be OK.

Those are the people who would sacrifice virgins to appease the volcano gods, and when that didn’t work, it was obvious to them that they just needed to sacrifice more virgins. “There’s our problem; not enough virgins being sacrificed.”

DonK31
Reply to  H.R.
August 28, 2022 9:50 am

There’s a shortage of Virgins! That’s why our weather dependent power system is failing.

Bryan A
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 28, 2022 12:38 pm

According to Griff, the total potential capacity for any given time is completely predictable for Renewable sources. How far in advance did the U.K. Grid know that Wind would be producing 1GW of electricity?
Oh Wait…
Just imagine, to produce 40GW of electricity with Wind, you would need 40 times the current capacity.
27 x 40 = 1008GW of capacity. And any placed in areas of current wind stillness would be equally non productive

When designing your grid for 100% renewables you must design and build out for Worst case scenarios in both Generation Capacity and Storage Capacity

Last edited 3 months ago by Bryan A
Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Bryan A
August 28, 2022 6:26 pm

You must always design for peak demand, plus a margin. Basic engineering.

roaddog
Reply to  Bryan A
August 28, 2022 8:46 pm

1000 x 0 = 0.

Iain Reid
Reply to  Bryan A
August 30, 2022 11:31 pm

Bryan,

even if there was enough capacity to cover the lightest wind it still would not work. Electrical generated output needs to be able to modulate to match grid demand otherwise it trips on frequency deviation. Wind cannot modulate output.
This is what gas does on the U.K. grid, it is far more than just ‘back up’, it is the backbone of the grid and keeps demand and supply balanced. Thus there is a limit to how much renewable generation can be fed into the grid.
The often quoted transition to renewables from fossil fuel generation is just not going to happen.

Reply to  Rod Evans
August 28, 2022 5:16 am

Please note that gridwatch.co.uk is a copyright infringing commercial website that only cares about income

gridwatch.org.uk is the original and authentic site

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  Leo Smith
August 28, 2022 5:33 am

Thanks for that heads up Theo.

Carrie
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 28, 2022 6:31 am

I received an email from the party asking for messages for Liz Truss, I told her exactly what to do and why, not that it’ll do any good obviously.

We need a knowledgeable energetic spokesperson/group who can get the media’s attention about the realities of this green wash rubbish, energy insecurities, hunger etc. Talking about it on here and agreeing with each other is completely pointless, we need someone to instantly come back on each of their ridiculous statements and tell it as it is!

This is worldwide, this is not only harming the wealthy countries but also the poorest. The idea of a re-set is completely false, they aren’t wanting to redistribute the wealth, they just want to make money for themselves!

Most, if not all, of the green energy companies are affiliated to major oil companies. Heck the University of East Anglia CRU unit, of Climate-Gate infamy, has pushed this nonsense for decades, and done very nicely out of it by the way. The building it stands in was originally funded by the likes of Shell and BP, and they still contribute financially. https://www.uea.ac.uk/web/groups-and-centres/climatic-research-unit/about-the-climatic-research-unit

I just don’t understand why the politicians can’t do the research themselves, but it’s more than likely the fault of a classical education. Science just isn’t their thing and this is a major contributor of the mess we are now in.

Pflashgordon
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 28, 2022 9:27 am

We just received a note from our natural gas supplier in Central Texas to expect huge increases in unit costs of gas this coming winter. Texas, one of world’s the largest suppliers of gas!

So they suggest what? 1. Various financing plans to spread the peak monthly costs and 2. conservation. Amidst massive inflation in the cost of living, we are now being told that, due to horrendous public policy and spending decisions, the everyday business and consumer must pay more for the privilege of shivering in unheated or poorly heated homes and businesses. And don’t blame the usual scapegoat Russia. We have walked open-eyed into this problem all on our own.

Throw the bums out of office. And call out “environmentalists” and the media and deep state for the liars that they are.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Pflashgordon
August 28, 2022 10:31 am

I keep wondering when budding Woodward & Bernsteins will expose the whole charade. There are fantastic journalistic careers to be made on this one topic.

Retired_Engineer_Jim
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 28, 2022 6:30 pm

But they would have to get their stories past the editor-gatekeepers.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Retired_Engineer_Jim
August 28, 2022 6:36 pm

Whistleblowing, leaks, book deals & etc.

StephenP
Reply to  Pflashgordon
August 28, 2022 12:39 pm

Is there any chance of the US returning to the energy independence it had before Biden made all the executive decisions that led to the current situation?
How long would it take?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  StephenP
August 29, 2022 4:15 am

That’s a good question. I just saw a headline yesterday saying 2000+ wells were being shutdown in Kansas. So things are going in the wrong direction.

To get things back in order will require Republicans to be elected and in control. All Democrats know how to do is destroy things so they won’t be any help.

Last edited 3 months ago by Tom Abbott
Drake
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 28, 2022 10:02 am

good fortune

noun1) an auspicious state resulting from favorable outcomes
2) a stroke of luck

The favorable outcomes of the development of fossil fuels were and are inevitable.

There was NO luck in those outcomes.

Conservatives must stop using terms like “good fortune” since these terms, to liberals, equate to the second definition given. You were just lucky, you didn’t earn it, or as Obama said, “You didn’t build that!”

Just as with “capitalism” which is a Marxist pejorative and which conservatives use when they actually mean free enterprise, “fortunate” should NEVER be used by those who worked long and hard to get what they have EARNED.

Don
Reply to  Rod Evans
August 29, 2022 7:01 pm

Same here in New Zealand , mid winter , 1040 MW Wind Installed (never ever meet) , generating at this moment 89 MW . Coal ,gas and co gen generating 400 MW , Geothermal running near flat out 950 MW , Hydro running 3/4 flat out 3700 MW .
Wind is virtually insignificant 1.8% of total NZ wide production and very rarely achieves 50% of nameplate output. Plus according to the Government “New Zealand will need about another 1000 wind turbines to fulfil a government projection of 3390 megawatts of extra wind energy by 2050” Yuk !

August 27, 2022 11:23 pm

Who knew that without nuclear power in Germany, grid stability problems are a future certainty? Every thinking person, i.e. not greens and politicians.

griff
August 27, 2022 11:53 pm

Hmmm… I can’t find any trace of these ‘experts’ out there… perhaps someone could enlighten me as to their qualifications on grid stability?

Rod Evans
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 12:13 am

Griff
Talk to any Chief Engineer that runs a large cruise ship or any CEO of a power generator land side, if you want to seek out expert advice on grid stability issues.
I suspect you will not do that, as seeking out real experts will give you some uncomfortable truths.

Redge
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 12:23 am

Perhaps you weren’t looking, mate

Dr Patrick Graichen:

State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action

Executive Director and Managing Director of Agora Energiewende

Deputy Director of Agora Energiewende

Head of Division at the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety

Deputy Head of Division for International Climate Action and Personal Assistant to the State Secretary at the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety

Research assistant at the interdisciplinary Institute for Environmental Economics at Heidelberg University and doctoral degree, thesis: “Municipal Energy Policy”

Degree in Economics and Political Science at Heidelberg University and the University of Cambridge (UK)

I think he’s an expert in his field

What are your qualifications?

alastair gray
Reply to  Redge
August 28, 2022 12:40 am

Sounds like a climate quangocrat to me. but if one of the sheep in the fold is beginning to bleat then maybe the issue of stability is getting hold of hearts and minds. Of course real engineers as e.g. Prof Michael Kelly of Cambridge university have been pointing out the fallacies of “renewables” in the grid for years

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  Redge
August 28, 2022 2:00 am

Doubt griff has any. Not even an art gcse.

MarkW
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 28, 2022 8:28 am

griff’s expertise is limited to reading the latest talking points memo.

Bryan A
Reply to  MarkW
August 28, 2022 12:43 pm

Probably easier to read than the Cliff Notes pamphlets

Krishna Gans
Reply to  Redge
August 28, 2022 5:59 am

You will say, he is an expert ?
Not for griff, the expert in nonsense talking.

Bryan A
Reply to  Krishna Gans
August 28, 2022 12:44 pm

Wait…are you calling Griff a Stand Up Philosopher?

A Bullshit Artist

Next. Occupation?
– Stand-up philosopher. – What?
Stand-up philosopher.
I coalesce the vapor of human experience into a viable and logical comprehension.
Oh. A bullshit artist.
Did you bullshit last week?
No.
Did you try to bullshit last week?
Yes.
Comicus! Comicus, Comicus!
– Back in the line. – He’s not in line. He’s my agent, Swiftus.
Good news. I just got you a job.

Last edited 3 months ago by Bryan A
Bryan A
Reply to  Bryan A
August 28, 2022 5:59 pm

Commenting on WUWT under the pseudonym GRIFF

HotScot
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 12:28 am

Back under your bridge pest.

michel
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 1:01 am

You are not answering the point. You’re in the UK, so you need to, as a voter, get straight about the similar issue in the UK.

What would you propose to do when wind delivers only 1Gw for periods of at least 24 hours? Which is the case at the moment. What when it falls to similar levels for several days at a stretch, as it will most winters in January or February?

It will be completely dark at 5pm on one of these days. Solar, which falls to 10% of faceplate in the day in winter, will be delivering nothing at all until 10am the next morning.

How are you going to supply the grid? People will be on their way home, they’ll be turning on stoves and kettles. If the green believers have their way they will be dependent on heat pumps to keep warm, and they’ll be plugging in their electric cars to charge them overnight.

In your ideal world there will be a larger park of offshore wind, so you’ll get more than 1Gw, but it will still be only 10-15% of normal supply and use. Don’t talk time shifting, either. No amount of time shifting of demand is going to cut it when your generation falls to 10 or 15% of normal supply for a day, or on occasion for a week.

What do you expect to happen? Large scale blackouts? Soak oatmeal overnight to have something to eat? Eat cold beans out of tins, by candlelight?

This kind of thinking has historical analogies. I have said before, the nearest historical parallel is the documented case of the Xhosa in the mid nineteenth century, when they slaughtered their cattle, destroyed their crops, and starved to death. The crazy idea that we can just move to wind and solar and close down our perfectly good coal power stations without having any replacement is the same kind of mass delusion. A mass delusion which exists, at the moment, only among activists.

But the really uncomfortable parallel to the Xhosa episode is that there too there were a bunch of crazed activists, led by a teenage girl, and there was initially strong opposition by the political establishment. But as the mania rose, they eventually folded, as the Western political class has today, and and got on board with the program. And killed a third or more of their people in the subsequent famine.

Climate believer
Reply to  michel
August 28, 2022 2:47 am

“Eat cold beans out of tins, by candlelight?”

Bloody luxury… 😉

Chaswarnertoo
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 1:59 am

Griff, we know you’re a moron. You don’t have to keep proving it.

Climate believer
Reply to  Chaswarnertoo
August 28, 2022 3:30 am

As useful as an ashtray on a motorbike and twice as pointless.

Reply to  Climate believer
August 28, 2022 5:44 am

Or a screen door on a submarine

Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 5:18 am

Cambridge degree in electrical engineering do you griff?

No, I thought not.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Leo Smith
August 28, 2022 10:53 am

How about just a H.S. physics course? Hell, I’d even settle for a grade-school science course.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 5:43 am

Griff, you live in the UK, like me, so you will know that the poor are being disproportionately hammered by the rocketing power prices. This is because you and your renewables gang have shafted our energy system. Hope you’re proud of yourself champ.

Dave Ward
Reply to  Andrew Wilkins
August 28, 2022 7:42 am

Hope you’re proud of yourself champ

Griff’s probably good buddies with Ed Davey…

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/08/28/ed-davey-im-proud-to-have-stopped-fracking-despite-energy-crisis/

MarkW
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 8:27 am

Only someone acknowledged by griff’s superiors in the climate alarmist community as experts, can be called experts. /sarc

Jtom
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 8:33 am

Griff, you know how badly renewables perform in the winter. You know there is no storage to support them. You are undoubtedly aware of the energy crisis in your country. If there is a NORMAL winter, it will all hit the proverbial fan, and the masses will be looking for people to blame. If you are not careful, you may end up as a Christmas decoration hanging from a lamppost.

It will be dangerous to spout green energy fantasies to people dying in the cold.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Jtom
August 28, 2022 10:55 am

You know there is no storage to support them.” Yeah, but Griff’s cadre leaders tell him that they will appear soon.

Dave Fair
Reply to  griff
August 28, 2022 10:43 am

Griff, you are an effing idiot. I have a degree and 30 years experience in electric power generation, transmission and distribution. My experience includes the analysis of grid development and stability. I tell you what they say is true and easily predictable by people who know what they are talking about.

You exhibit one of the traits of the ideological Left: Refusal to look into facts that contradict your socialist outlook. You are not fit for rational discourse for many reasons, not the least of which is your refusal to listen to your betters. You are a small person.

Julian Flood
August 28, 2022 12:23 am

The German author mentions ‘dark doldrums’ and claims that that meteorolical condition is unusual. European continental scale blocking high pressure systems, while not all that common, are not rare. In summer they are inconvenient when prolonged into a drought. In winter, however…

A winter blocking high, zero winds, means the wind turbines fail. The weeks of ‘clag’ – blanketing thick stratocumulus clouds that starts as morning fog and settles in as 24 hour gloom – shuts down solar energy production over northern Europe.

If we get one of those this winter we will be in big trouble.

JF

alastair gray
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 28, 2022 12:42 am

Let us hope that exactly that happens so that we can once and for all consign Net Zero to the dustbin of history along with the children’s crusade

Tom Abbott
Reply to  alastair gray
August 28, 2022 3:57 am

The alarmists will blame everything on Putin, not unreliables.

GuyFromBerlin
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 28, 2022 4:36 am

Then maybe this will bring the EU people to organize and conquer Russia. With its large energy reserves, having Russia as a colony wouldn’t be the worst thing.

Krishna Gans
Reply to  alastair gray
August 28, 2022 6:03 am

No, they will ask for more windmills, not learning a multiplication with zero will always be zero.

Reply to  Julian Flood
August 28, 2022 5:25 am

As usual Julian mate, you are spot on.

The reason Gridwatch (the original real gridwatch, not the copyright infringing for-profit copy) exists, is to discover how frequent periods of no wind to speak of anywhere, within reach of an interconnector, are.

And there is at least one period of sustained high pressure/low or no wind all over NW europe, every winter, and its often associated with temperature inversions and fog or low overcast.
Depending on how many reactors EDF fixes in France, we are going to need every fossil fuel plant we have – and that is not the UK, that is the whole of NW Europe.

Last edited 3 months ago by Leo Smith
Rich Lambert
Reply to  Julian Flood
August 28, 2022 5:31 am

Sabine Hossenfelder has a word for the ‘dark doldrums,’ dunkelflaute.

yarpos
August 28, 2022 12:58 am

Good grief. Its 2022 and they are talking about the fact that “renewables” create grid instability as if its news.

tgasloli
Reply to  yarpos
August 28, 2022 5:11 am

It is easier to pretend to be surprised by the predicted outcome than to admit you were wrong. Especially when those in power have been wrong about everything for 20+ years.

Reply to  yarpos
August 28, 2022 5:26 am

Yup. It’s taken that long for reality to overaiide fat brown renewable envelopes.

Krishna Gans
Reply to  yarpos
August 28, 2022 12:17 pm

Following Green Dreams, that will never happen, doesn’t exist following best calculations.
That from people not knowing the correct use of a pocket calculator.

climanrecon
August 28, 2022 1:14 am

I would like to see wind and solar farms taken off the grid and used locally to generate something like hydrogen. This would avoid a lot of transmission lines. The “green” hydrogen can then compete as a fuel against petroleum products, no doubt there will be some green zealots willing to pay the enormous price of the former.

Reply to  climanrecon
August 28, 2022 5:27 am

As long as they are not subsidised, that is fine by me.
But of course a nuclear power station would do that job at one third the cost.

Rich Lambert
Reply to  climanrecon
August 28, 2022 5:34 am

Better yet ammonia with hydrogen.

Reply to  climanrecon
August 28, 2022 9:35 am

How are you going to distribute this hydrogen. Certainly not with existing supply networks or home systems. What is the cost of upgrading both>

JohnC
August 28, 2022 1:15 am

Can someone please explain how my energy company, Octopus in the U.K., can claim that 100% of the electricity they supply is from renewables, 0% from nuclear, coal, gas? They may “buy” electricity from renewable sources only, but to suggest that every one of their consumers is only receiving that electricity is misleading at best, unless they’ve developed a filter that can identify green electrons from nasty fossil electrons!

Mike Lowe
Reply to  JohnC
August 28, 2022 2:51 am

It is, quite simply, fraud!

Reply to  JohnC
August 28, 2022 5:27 am

Economical with the truth. They just buy ROCS.

Andrew Wilkins
Reply to  JohnC
August 28, 2022 6:21 am

If you cut the end off one of your power cables (try your bedside lamp) you’ll see green electrons leaking out.
Well, that’s what Griff told me would happen. He said Nick Stokes told him all about it.

Scorn
Reply to  JohnC
August 29, 2022 3:57 am

On a windless night all the Octopus staff are obliged to sit on bikes peddling like fury to generate your electricity, that way they do not require electricity to keep themselves warm.

Peta of Newark
August 28, 2022 1:29 am

Quote:”all that needs to be done is to change the “mindset,”

Absolutely yes but there-in is The Real Problem

Because that mindset is contained in myriad individuals who are all chronically chemically depressed from the diet and recreational habits and are thus trapped by their own Magical Thinking.
They have completely brainwashed themselves and the chemical depression means they are doubly trapped, each individual, in a world of:

  • Political Correctness
  • Consensus
  • Buck Passing
  • Mental laziness
  • Poor memory
  • Lack of original thinking/mental agility
  • Last not least, Mendacity

No. We do not ‘need sugar’ for energy, we can not ‘handle alcohol’ nor is there *any* safe limit, cannabis is NOT safe
No again, caffeine, cocaine, tobacco and Prozac are not antidotes for that lethargy

Boris Johnson being The Perfect Contemporary Exemplar.
Basically, he was/is and has for a long time been, permanently drunk and or bloated with a belly full of mush, nutrient-free (haha) ‘food’ and constantly looking for somewhere to have a ‘Power Nap’
Yes his blood-alcohol readings might have been low-to-zero a lot of the time but his head was full of brain-cells and neurons constantly screaming for sugar and booze.
His mind was never on the task of being Prime MInister and his pre or actual Type 2 diabetes means that Alzheimer’s Dementia would be quantifiable within him.

OK Let’s hear it.
Who in the shambles that now passes for scientists, politicians, teachers and leaders is NOT similarly and to any extent NOT affected. 66% of US folks and 50% of all Europeans have, at least, pre-diabetes.

There is your Global Warming Problem – it exists inside drug-addled minds/brains and there alone.

Last edited 3 months ago by Peta of Newark
Mike Lowe
Reply to  Peta of Newark
August 28, 2022 2:57 am

It’s not Boris’s belly or brain that has worried me for a long time, but his important appendage lower down which seems to be sated only by Carrie’s attention. Perhaps henceforth, every political leader’s partner needs to be examined to avoid future pollution by Green nonsense.

Jtom
Reply to  Mike Lowe
August 28, 2022 8:42 am

I think all elected leaders should be chemically castrated while in office. If that had been the law the UK wouldn’t be in the mess Boris has perpetrated, and the US wouldn’t be stuck with Harris as the VP.

Disputin
Reply to  Jtom
August 29, 2022 11:04 am

“…all elected leaders should be chemically castrated…”

Why not the old-fashioned way (two bricks?). It would radically reduce the number of applicants, and make them easy to spot.

Dave Fair
Reply to  Mike Lowe
August 28, 2022 11:02 am

Can I do the examinations?

JoHo
Reply to  Peta of Newark
August 28, 2022 3:34 am

Surely Carrie must come high up the equation regarding Boris and how, remarkably, he changed overnight on getting married? I still remember his quote regarding wind power – ‘these things couldn’t blow the skin off a rice pudding’. !! Oh how the mighty fall….!

Reply to  Peta of Newark
August 28, 2022 5:29 am

Hey Peta, I am pre diabetic and take a cocktail of drugs for many age related conditions, and I can tell you that is not the reason for the mental laziness.
Lack of meat can be.

Reply to  Leo Smith
August 28, 2022 5:46 am

Cut consumption of sugar and other carbs.
Lose weight, if necessary.
Works better than drugs.
But take them too.

August 28, 2022 5:10 am

The importance of nuclear power plants for security of supply in base-load operation and their and their ability to operate the grid in parallel with renewable renewable energies have been demonstrated.

So what?

“There is nothing a fleet of dispatchable nuclear power plants cannot do that cannot be done worse and more expensively and with higher carbon emissions and more adverse environmental impact than by adding intermittent renewable energy.”

In short. once you bite the nuclear bullet, its curtains for renewables, in any rational analysis.
Of course Germany is not famous for rational analysis…

August 28, 2022 5:41 am

It seems like Germany is in the lead for the coveted Golden Flashlight prize awarded to the first nation with a serious blackout from Nut Zero policies.
In the acceptance speech I imagine Germany will blame Putin?

Now the good news:
Those formerly boring grid management jobs will be very exciting now.
Never a dull moment. No more boredom or sleeping on the job.

paul courtney
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 28, 2022 6:57 am

Mr. Greene: The elites are letting us live in interesting times, whether we want to or not.

Nicholas
August 28, 2022 5:42 am

Experts discover the need for conventional power plants, Long into the future. What was their field of expertise? Dumb stupidity is my guess. Maybe the scalesof blind group think has fallen from their eyes.

August 28, 2022 5:48 am

The German Equation

Anti-nuclear
+ anti-coal
+ anti-fracking
+ anti-Russian energy imports
= anti-electricity

VOWG
August 28, 2022 6:13 am

Conventional power plants will be needed forever. Nature will eventually decide how long and where mankind lives and survives as has been the case since man has existed.

Nicholas McGinley
August 28, 2022 6:39 am

So, basically, we skeptics, me in particular and many others here, have been exactly right about this all along, for years, never wavering, and foreseeing this day a long time ago.
The particulars are so blindingly obvious I cannot even believe a single sentient adult could fail to see that this would happen.
BTW, the pain and the problems are just warming up yet.
It will get far worse before it gets any better.
There is not enough production of reliable sources of energy.
No new nuke plants on order, no plans for new gas and oil extraction…
But worst of all, still no sign that the idiots who are/have created this situation understand anything.
The most prominent part of their initial response last Winter, for example, response was to call for doubling down on the disastrous policies that have got them where they are today:
Germany aims to get 100% of energy from renewable sources by 2035 | Reuters

  • They seem to be insufficiently savvy to grok that installed capacity is not equivalent to the units that measure actual usage. Not power, but energy. Not gigawatts, quads, or any other unit of power, but power multiplied by time, i.e. units such as megawatt-hours…or Hiroshima’s.
  • They seem to not understand that grid scale storage does not exist and will not exist in any foreseeable time frame.
  • They seem to not understand the folly of relying on solar power in a country that gets very little sunshine for many months every year* and is on average cloudy about 60% of the time. There is no rational explanation for how entire countries full of educated people seem have no one in an energy-policy-decision-making role who is aware that the Sun is below the horizon fully 50% of all the minutes in a year, and as noted, power is not amenable to storage at the scale of usage of a village, let alone a highly industrialized country and economy.
  • They seem to not understand what it is that differentiates modern civilization from subsistence hunting and gathering. See the year 1768** for what awaits us if we swear off abundant, reliable, and inexpensive energy.

The worst part of it all is, of course, the plain-as-day fact that all of this is for nothing.
There is no climate crisis.
CO2 is not the thermostat of the planet.
A slight warming trend over several decades on a planet in the midst of an actual ongoing ice age is not a disaster, it is a blessing.
And our jackass leadership- and ruling-classes have not become as the Gods themselves, and invented the ability to end bad weather events on an entire planet by forcing us all into energy poverty, throwing virgins into volcanoes, or by any other means whatsoever…although we might expect them to delve into more direct forms of human sacrifice when their current efforts prove an abject failure.

I sit here wondering if any of the masses of brainwashed true believers will ever have a “The-King-Has-No-Clothes” moment?
And also I wonder just what level of pain and economic hardship will be enough to put people into Popeye mode? You know, the ‘ole “I’ve had enough, and enough is too much(!)” state of mind?

But mostly I am hoping…hoping I live long enough to see this epic episode of mass delusion be seen for what it is.

*How little sun does Germany get?
They live there, so they ought to know well. I have never been there, and I do.
Berlin, for example, is at about 52.5° N latitude.
To get the solar noon Sun angle on the Winter Solstice, we just add the amount of tilt of the Earth’s axis relative to the plane of the ecliptic, which is 23.5°, to the latitude, since the Sun is overhead at the Tropic of Capricorn (23.5° S latitude) on that day, and then subtract that number, an even 76°, from 90°.
The answer is that at solar noon, the time of day the Sun is at maximum elevation above the horizon, in Berlin, in December, the Sun is about 14° above the southern horizon. But not for long, because the Sun is only above the horizon from about 8:14 AM to about 3:53 PM!
At 8 AM it has not risen and by 4 o’clock it has already set for the night…the long cold night.
It is daytime for about 7 hours and 39 minutes, and not daytime for 16 hours and 21 minutes.
How high is 14°(?), one might ask? Hold your fingers together and hold your hand at arms length. The width of your hand is roughly that much.
But it is even worse than the Sun angle and length of day data reveals…because that latitude is in a belt of semipermanent low pressure (Physical geography review: 0°, low pressure, rising air…the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ); 30° north and south latitude, semipermanent high pressure, descending air…the desert belts; 60° north and south latitude, semipermanent low pressure, rising air…the subpolar low pressure belts. IOW, it is cloudy there and rains often. 90% cloudy in Winter, 60% cloudy in Summer) it is usually cloudy for months at a time every year. For many months every year, about 10% of days are clear sky. The sunniest month there it is only cloudy 59% of the time!

Charts…I got charts, for every data point I used above. Just axe me.
Link to some I used (To get exact numbers for everything, etc. I intended to imbed each graph, but many websites to not display charts as a photo that can be linked to separately.
If anyone knows how to make that work, please let me know.)
Climate & Weather Averages in Wuhlgarten, Berlin, Germany (timeanddate.com)
How to Calculate The Sun’s Altitude (sciencing.com)
latitude of berlin – Search (bing.com)
Map of average annual precipitation of the world. Maps of the world resources — Planetolog.com
Ramstein-Miesenbach Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Germany) – Weather Spark
Ramstein-Miesenbach Climate, Weather By Month, Average Temperature (Germany) – Weather Spark
James Watt and the invention of the Steam Engine – Invention Therapy

The story with wind is not quite as laughably obvious that it can never power an industrial civilization. It takes some math and not just climate charts to show that wind is insufficient for the job. But it nevertheless is not.

**The year 1769: James Watt invents the steam engine and kick starts the Industrial Revolution, and by extension modern civilization, widespread human prosperity, increased longevity, and frankly speaking the beginning of the end of the filthy dirty, brutally difficult, and very very short life of nearly every single human who had, up to then, ever lived.

RevJay4
August 28, 2022 7:01 am

Well, duh. Anyone with half a brain coulda seen that one coming.
I still consider the whole wind/solar thing as a means to an end for the greenies and their masters. Subjugation of the world’s population into two classes. The elite and the extremely poor, with a smattering of those who serve the elite just above the bottom rung of the economic ladder.
However, the proverbial wheels seem to be coming off the green wagon and they may not get quite what they want. Possibly, a bunch of them may find themselves occupying lamp posts in various countries when all is said and mostly done.
Just sayin’.

paul courtney
August 28, 2022 7:11 am

IN a different string a few weeks ago, regarding a similar study on renewables (in Australia, I think), the conclusion was that it will all work with sufficient “backup”. As I recall, Mr. Stokes chimed in to support the position, but to do so he had to distort the word “storage” to include NG backup generation. Europe is learning that the assumption NG would be there is not valid. Here in US, we may once again benefit from observing Europe shooting itself in the foot. UK may get lucky if they can get frakking. Eventually, Germany will frak as well- there is no other way to make their windmills and solar panels work on a grid (well, there’s nuclear, will Germany recover sanity this fall?). If UK and EU announce tomorrow, Putin will suddenly be alot less interested in Ukraine, perhaps?

observa
August 28, 2022 7:14 am

The largely intermittent output of solar and wind farms does not correlate with fluctuations in electricity demand.

Well then if it doesn’t compute just feed the lot into the climate models to get the woke answer. This is climate change 101 stuff.

Olen
August 28, 2022 7:20 am

How dumb is it to have energy that is dependent on the weather and call it renewable! When the true renewable energy is from coal and oil that is produced naturally in the Earth and is not dependent on the weather.

observa
Reply to  Olen
August 28, 2022 8:31 am

How dumb is it to have energy that is dependent on the weather and call it renewable!

Well it renews every time the sun shines and the wind blows. Pay attention to climate changer woke speech in class.

observa
Reply to  observa
August 28, 2022 8:09 pm

PS: Lack of attention leads to unwoke impure thoughts like say battery storage. But that’s expensive dispatchable energy and not cheap renewables. You know renewables are cheap because any number of surveys of woke climate changers tells you that and you can extrapolate the 97% true to the usual 3% of non-responders. They can naturally be extremely busy with other woke climate changing pursuits-

The government will also start tracking greenhouse gas emissions in residential building materials, by requiring that people calculate and report the carbon contained in the construction material they use. It will develop an online calculator service and its findings will be used to inform future policy.
Tougher energy efficiency rules set for new homes and renovations (msn.com)

ATheoK
August 28, 2022 8:08 am

The importance of nuclear power plants for security of supply in base-load operation and their and their ability to operate the grid in parallel with renewable renewable energies have been demonstrated.”

Simply stated, allegedly renewable energy sources are useless when real energy generation is available.

Simple solution, build real energy generation facilities, fossil fuels, hydro, nuclear and stop wasting money, Earth surface area, and time on wind and solar projects.

Climate believer
Reply to  ATheoK
August 28, 2022 10:55 am

Amen.

Jtom
August 28, 2022 8:49 am

This was so blindingly obvious from the start that you have to wonder what their true intentions and motivations are, and if the IQ of the average voter is really 100.

Edim
August 28, 2022 10:18 am

Here are daily capacity factors for onshore and offshore wind in Europe, with interactive maps.
https://windeurope.org/about-wind/daily-wind/capacity-factors

Beta Blocker
August 28, 2022 6:39 pm

I’m assuming the Tories will be handed a good shellacking in the next UK general election, whenever it is the next election is held.

Assuming a Labour government takes over at some point, what is their energy policy likely to be once they take power? Will it be a doubling down on the green energy agenda, as happened when Labour assumed power in Australia?

Pat from kerbob
Reply to  Beta Blocker
August 28, 2022 8:41 pm

Somehow need a new party
Or an internal coup in the Tories before that election
Just takes a few at the top talking sense publicly and the Dam will break.

People are pissed

Dave Andrews
Reply to  Beta Blocker
August 29, 2022 6:14 am

All three main parties are signed up to net zero. It was Labour that brought in the original climate change act and ‘stupid’ Ed Milliband is still their climate change spokesperson

Pat from kerbob
August 28, 2022 8:39 pm

Germany already has two grids worth of renewables installed compared to average load, and it still only provided 40% of electricity used last year.
I run that by people and they reply that germany plans to spend another trillion to double it.
Then I point out that the existing two grids worth are already spread widely across the country, doubling it means nothing as it’s all the same wind. When it’s not blowing, it’s not blowing.

Germany can’t get more usable electricity from doubling renewables installed unless they also start making more germany and that little project ended badly in 1945.

Utter waste of time without the magic batteries.
They may as well start investing in research into dilithium crystals, it has just as much chance of being successful.

Iain Reid
August 29, 2022 12:00 am

Nuclear and wind is not viable either.
As nuclear is normally run as base load and therefore has a very high (Plus90%) availability there needs to be another source of dispatchable power which, in the U.K. is mainly gas and In Germany a mixture of gas and coal
Nuclear ethusiasts say that nuclear can be flexible and modulate output to match demand,.I don’t know if this has actually been proved especially against the variability of wind output. However this balancing mode for nuclear rather than base load diminishes earnings as they will sell far less power, this for what is acknowledeged as ‘expensive’ electricity and must impact the cost of building what is the only source of non CO2 emitting generation. (hydro being very limited and few countries have the terrain and weather.)
Essentially, as it will be near imposible to convince the politicians and populace that CO2 is not driving climate, we are locked into higher and higher electricity prices and a greatly increased risk of power cuts due to more and more renewables. The fact that what is built so far is not working very well doesn’t seem to deter those who make the decisions?

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