The New World Energy Order: A Battle Of Attrition

Reposted from Forbes

Tilak Doshi

Contributor

I analyze energy economics and related public policy issues.

Battles of attrition are defined as those in which opposing forces do not confront each other in direct combat with the full strength of their teams but instead aim to wear each other down over a period of time. Classical free trade is largely voluntary and mutually beneficial to consenting parties. But unilaterally-imposed economic policy sanctions that coerce certain desired patterns of international trade and economic exchange may be cast as attempts to win a battle of attrition.

The latest headlines in the attrition front from Germany, the epicentre of the continent’s unsettled energy geopolitics after the launch of Western sanctions on Russia, seem incredible at first sight. It was only about a month ago when what seemed a dumbfounding report by Deutsche Bank predicted that “wood will be used for heating purposes where possible.” The Business Insider headlined its column “Germans could switch to wood this winter to heat their homes as Russia withholds natural gas, Deutsche Bank says”.

Last week, Bloomberg’s Javier Blas tweeted with his “chart of the day” showing GoogleGOOG +0.4% searches for firewood (“Brennholz”) surging in the past two months as Germans increasingly realize that firewood (yes, firewood!) might stand between them and a freezing winter with electricity rationing “as the country braces for natural gas shortages”. Germany’s citizens — living in the world’s pre-eminent engineering nation with its flagship BMWs and Audis in manufacturing, its world leading petrochemical sector typified by behemoth BASF and much else besides — face the prospects of surviving winter as their forebears did over 2 centuries ago, huddling around a firewood hearth. Never mind that many of them including their leaders actually belief Greta-like that continued use of fossil fuels will lead to planetary damnation (in 12 years or at mid or end of the century along a spectrum of climate alarmism).

Russia vs “the West”

A few days after the launch of Russia’s “special military operations” in eastern Ukraine on 24th February, the U.S., U.K. and the European Union along with their closest allies (Australia, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and a few other countries) imposed the most wide-ranging economic blitzkrieg on a sovereign nation since the Second World War. The sanctions launched on Russia were meant to devastate the Russian economy and force President Vladimir Putin to sue for peace on Ukraine’s terms or even engender regime change.

Russia responded with a “roubles for gas” scheme for “non-friendly” countries (i.e. those participating in the sanctions) as a prototype for all of Russia’s major commodity exports to a hostile Western alliance. In the days after the sanctions, Russia’s rouble fell to almost half of its pre-invasion levels, its stock market was shut, and its central bank jacked up interest rates to contain the fallout. Contrary to expectations and President Joe Biden’s boast of collapsing the ‘rouble to rubble’ however, the currency soon recovered sharply. It strengthened to its highest levels in 7 years while the country’s current account surplus surged to record levels by May.

This was due only in part to the Russian central bank’s actions limiting currency outflows and raising interest rates. It was primarily an outcome of the surge in the global prices of fossil fuels and industrial commodities which constitute the major commodity exports of the country. According to a Reuters report yesterday, higher oil export volumes, coupled with rising gas prices, will boost Russia’s earnings from energy exports to $337.5 billion this year, a 38% rise on 2021, according to an economy ministry document seen by the newswire.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook issued in late July slashed growth forecasts for almost every country but upgraded Russia’s economic forecast. Russia is still expected to contract 6% this year although this is a substantial improvement from the IMF’s April negative 8.5% forecast.

While there was some fall-off in energy exports to the Western countries, China and India rapidly increased their energy imports from Russia at discounted prices. While China is in talks with Russia to buy oil to replenish its strategic reserves according to Bloomberg, India has been refining cheaper Russian crude to then export as petroleum products to Europe and the US.

In an irony that will not be lost to observers of European affairs, Robin Brooks, Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance, says that the West is “paying a high price” for denying Russian energy to itself, although EU “exemptions” to sanctions are multiplying. Meanwhile, Russia’s financial conditions now are almost as relaxed as before the war.

He also notes that the German current account surplus “is back to levels last seen in the early 2000s, when Germany was the ‘sick man’ of Europe” adding that Germany is “sick again now” having had a growth model that was “heavily predicated on cheap Russian energy”. The Nordstream-1 gas pipeline — Germany’s main gas supply artery — running at 20% level of normal supply and the resulting Eurozone energy price shock — is Putin’s grapple-hold across the throat of Europe threatening “catastrophic industrial shutdowns” and mass layoffs.

Russia’s citizens, while poorer, do not seem to be doing so badly relative to their German neighbours. Retail spending at cafes, bars, and restaurants is doing fine. Well-heeled Muscovites might miss their I-phones and Gucci handbags under sanctions and voluntary exits by publicity-conscious Western corporations. But ordinary citizens are certainly not searching for firewood this winter or worried about being able to have hot baths.

G-7, BRICS and the Rest

The battle of attrition between the G-7 and Russia continues as the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently went on “a charm offensive in Africa to regain the US popularity which was lost ostensibly during the Trump administration, and to counter the attempts from Russia to get more African countries on their side.” In pointed remarks to the press with Mr. Blinken sitting at her side, South African Foreign Minister Naledi Pandor said that she objected to “patronizing bullying” coming from the West: “Because when we believe in freedom – as I’m saying, it’s freedom for everybody – you can’t say because Africa is doing this, you will then be punished by the United States…. One thing I definitely dislike is being told ‘either you choose this or else.’”

Making the same point more diplomatically, India’s External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar said in a June conference when he took questions from an audience: “I am one-fifth of the world’s population. I am what today the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world… I feel I am entitled to have my own side. I am entitled to weigh my own interests, and make my own choices. My choices will not be cynical and transactional. They will be a balance of my values and my interests. There is no country in the world which disregards its interests.”

In a speech delivered yesterday in Bangkok when attending a India-Thailand Joint Commission meeting, the minister defended India’s crude oil imports from Russia. He referred to the surge in energy prices across the world due to the Russia-Ukraine war and said: “We have been very open and honest about our interest. I have a country with a per capita income of USD 2000, these are not people who can afford higher energy prices. It’s my moral duty to ensure the best deal.”

In a blistering article last week headlined “Washington has only itself to blame for growing de-dollarization trend”, China’s Global Times stated: “The thought the US may move to grab anybody’s assets who refuses to obey Washington’s dictates is truly unnerving, which is now inducing more countries to diversify their reserve assets away from US dollars.” Russia, China and India have been engaged in efforts to facilitate trade via the use of their national currencies and a potential BRICS basket as the basis of commodity trade among those outside the Western alliance.

Potential future members of the BRICS bloc such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Indonesia, Nigeria and Thailand have made clear — either overtly or by their neutrality in trade and diplomatic relations with Russia and the West – that they will not “pick sides” as India’s Dr. Jaishanker put it. There is little reason to believe that the EU or the US can browbeat developing countries to join in the anti-Russia sanctions.

The Fallout

Financial and trade sanctions on Russia by Western protagonists has led to an economic battle of attrition the results of which remain uncertain and far-reaching. It looks increasingly likely that Russia will achieve at least its immediate goals in the military battlefield in the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, albeit at great cost of men and materiel. Yet the costs of the Western economic sanctions on Russia which have boomeranged are far more consequential to people’s lives and livelihoods around the world.

The Western alliance, led by the US under the Biden administration, offers no prospects for a negotiated solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict as called for by Henry Kissinger at the Davos conference in May. Indeed, the mainstream media and Western political leaders have continued escalating the narrative of a Russian military defeat with a seeming endless supply of funds and arms by the Biden administration to Ukraine.

Pensioners and poorer sections of society across Western Europe and the UK, unable to afford skyrocketing heating and electricity bills, will be the most affected proximate victims. But even worse injuries to people’s lives and livelihoods will be among the vast populations of the developing countries that live in poverty or on the edges of it. The surge in the price of food, fertilizer and fuel as a result of the sanctions will punish the far-flung innocent poor the most.

4.7 26 votes
Article Rating
177 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Mr.
August 21, 2022 6:16 am

“The poor will always be with us”.

(Waddaya mean “us”, whiteman.
h/t Tonto)

jimmywalter
Reply to  Mr.
August 21, 2022 9:48 pm

Jesus was more a black man, not white, who said the poor will always be with us

Tom Halla
August 21, 2022 6:19 am

I do hope some green or suckup to greens politicians lose office.

RevJay4
Reply to  Tom Halla
August 21, 2022 7:39 am

Losing office will, probably, be the least of their worries. Think of the general lack of everything needed to sustain modern life as folks have come to know it. Think the masses will just go quietly into the good night? Expect to see protests(riots) regarding it all.
And, the powers that be either running for cover or confronting the folks with armed troops with orders to shoot all who will not be herded.
Just sayin’.

AndyHce
Reply to  RevJay4
August 21, 2022 11:25 am

Canadian government against its truckers is probably a clear insight to what to expect.

Dave Fair
Reply to  AndyHce
August 21, 2022 11:43 am

No, the truckers didn’t fight back. Desperate people will, logical or not.

Leftists’ politics of division will escalate social and racial frictions in the coming unrest. Inner city businesses should be stocking up on wooden and metal defenses. Arming oneself and training is recommended. Its better to be prepared even if it ultimately proves unnecessary. But that’s an unknown future … why take chances?

Gerry, England
Reply to  Dave Fair
August 22, 2022 5:27 am

Desperate people with nothing to lose will fight back!

Viti
Reply to  RevJay4
August 21, 2022 1:23 pm

Well the aliens from the warm climates are not going to put up with this, they are going back!

Gary Pearse
Reply to  RevJay4
August 21, 2022 1:27 pm

Germany’s interior minister is shipping military tanks with 40,000 litres each to police forces in major cities and regions because people have bought into “conspiracy theories” that government policy is creating economic havoc, food shortages, shortages of heating and lighting fuel and rapid price inflation for everything! He must be getting inside info on this topic! He’s not showing signs of such privations.

Ron Long
August 21, 2022 6:27 am

A good review of the International situation by Tilak Doshi. And the winner is: CHINA! Russia has been shown to be a stuffed panda bear by it’s military disaster in Ukraine, and India can never advance such a huge population to economic prosperity. China cuts deals with Russia, has the goods on the Biden Crime Family, and is full speed ahead with coal-fired electricity plants. The only stupid thing they might do is to invade Taiwan, because Taiwan has the ability to counter-strike, which Ukraine does not. Germany? How’s that Greenie deal and the admission of illegal immigrants situation working out? Still laughing at the warning from President Trump? Not so much?

Scissor
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 6:54 am

Perhaps the significance of China having “the goods” on the Biden Crime Family is less important than the fact that the Family gets a cut.

Maybe India is the big winner.

Ron Long
Reply to  Scissor
August 21, 2022 10:38 am

Scissor, right about China, and think about this: no way China wants Biden out of the White House, so they might poke him a little, but nothing serious.

Scissor
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 11:03 am

Makes sense.

William Abell
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 7:48 am

Agree, with your points except for your disparaging India. In my view, India has some of the smartest, most enlightened business and governmental leadership in the world. In your post, you seem to think this quote from India’s External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar is a bad thing, in a June conference when he took questions from an audience: “I am one-fifth of the world’s population. I am what today is the 5th or 6th largest economy in the world… I feel I am entitled to have my own side. I am entitled to weigh my own interests, and make my own choices. My choices will not be cynical and transactional. They will be a balance of my values and my interests. There is no country in the world which disregards its interests.”“We have been very open and honest about our interest. I have a country with a per capita income of USD 2000, these are not people who can afford higher energy prices. It’s my moral duty to ensure the best deal.”

It is refreshing to see politicians putting their people first and not the woke International Elitists. I guess he is not worried about attending all the “right cocktail parties at Davos.
I will bet the Biden administration will never take such a position.
There are plenty of our own citizens, Appalachia, the Inner cities, the rural poor etc. who cannot afford the crushing economic blow of “woke policies” (see electric cars, attacks on the energy sector, etc.). Are they not worthy of politicians like Dr. Jaishankar? You will never see it from Biden and his ilk.
AMERICA FIRST it is our moral duty.

Joe Crawford
Reply to  William Abell
August 21, 2022 8:53 am

It’s interesting that Dr. Jaishankar, among others, has bought into his own equivalent to Trump’s MAGA, which was panned heavily by the DNC, the Main Stream Media and the One Worlder/DAVOS crowd. Of course, the primary objectives and/or requirements of any government should be the advancement of it’s own economy and the protection of it’s citizens.

mkelly
Reply to  William Abell
August 21, 2022 8:54 am

Well the External Affairs Minister was way off base in his comment that no country in the world would disregard its interests.

The US now disregards our interests Willy nilly. Borders open, criminals set free, choke out our oil and gas industry, produce savings robbing inflation, and divide the people on race/politics.

Our leaders hate us and are doing their best to purposely harm us.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  William Abell
August 21, 2022 9:56 am

 Dr S. Jaishankar said in a June conference “…. There is no country in the world which disregards its interests.”

He is very diplomatically ignoring what the western governments are actually doing by following the WEF protocols. It’s not clear whether his statement is meant to be polite, not pointing out frailties, or allowing a competitor to continue to weaken their position.
From what I can see, the U.S., EU, and UK are crushing their economies following advice from elitists that don’t have the general population’s interest in mind. The outcome of following their present course will be less people with a greater delineation between the haves and the have-nots.

D. J. Hawkins
Reply to  Brad-DXT
August 22, 2022 4:53 am

I think the good doctor neglected to add the word “sane”. “There is no sane country in the world which disregards its interests.”

Brad-DXT
Reply to  D. J. Hawkins
August 22, 2022 9:22 am

Then he is being diplomatic for not pointing out frailties. It also pushes an international rival down so it’s a 2-fer.

Ron Long
Reply to  William Abell
August 21, 2022 10:41 am

I’m not disparaging India, I just think the struggle to get billions of persons into a modern economic situation, when so much of India is rural agriculture, dependent on monsoon rain cycles, that advancing the GDP enough is nearly impossible. For the record, I put a lot of curry on my rice.

HotScot
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 11:53 am

Thereby demonstrating your ignorance of Indian culture. ‘Curry’s’ are more often than not eaten with chapati’s, or derivatives thereof.

The term ‘curry’ is itself Anglicised from the Tamil, Kari.

A western curry is barely recognisable in India as popular fare.

Ron Long
Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 1:14 pm

I readily admit a profound ignorance of Indian culture. However, I do like curry on rice.

Richard Page
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 1:42 pm

It’s definitely a cultural thing. In India, rice is seen as a staple yet ‘poor’ fare whilst chapati’s are eaten by the more affluent. I think it’s different in China where rice is seen as being for the more well-off and noodles are seen as being for the poor.

Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 2:55 pm

This is a b8t unfair. I am an Indian ethnically and me and my Indian friends commonly day curry and rice.And we eat curry and rice as often if not more with rice, but also nan and chapathi

Gary Pearse
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 2:19 pm

Ron don’t underestimate India’s capabilities. Giant mining company Tata Steel bought up 100s of sq.mi of Quebec- Labrador iron ore properties and own manganese and chromium mines. They operate in 26 countries and have $30B annual income. They have a burgeoning hi tech industry in Mumbai. I checked out India’s best universities, particularly Science and tech for a very bright grandson.

They have excellent curricula (no diversity/ perversity, navel-gazing faculties), they welcome foreign students, have tuitions with on campus living for 10 – 20% of US tuition and they even have scholarships for good foreign students. Ditto the best universities in Japan, including scholarships and low tuitions. I’m afraid to subject my boy to the mental rape and and de-education awaiting him on this side of the ocean or at Oxbridge, etc.

I consider India now the de jure head of the British Commonwealth of Nations since UK’s head fell off and Australia and NZ rushed to decapitate themselves in solidarity. Canada is belatedly working to do the same.

Beta Blocker
Reply to  Gary Pearse
August 21, 2022 5:34 pm

Years ago, the best mathematics professor I had in college was a native of India who taught in the British tradition of teaching university level mathematics.

For a given topical area of the mathematics curriculum, he started with a short introduction to the theory followed by lots of practical examples that illustrated every nook and cranny of the theory.

Anyway, if you need engineers educated and experienced in all facets of nuclear-chemical processing, mineral processing — and I would guess petroleum refining and processing as well — India is the go-to place to find them.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Gary Pearse
August 22, 2022 5:20 am

Gary,
Yes, it is unwise to underestimate people from India.
A person unnamed here in Australia has used software that traces some victim scam calls back to the scammers, who in several cases are working in unsavoury addresses in Mumbai. They react badly to ‘acid in your face’ comments when sprung. But, they can be smug because one operation that was sprung gave credible evidence of grossing 1 million dollars. That is not a grand total, that is a day of takings.
Anyone smart enough to gross that using little more than an old landline phone system passes my exam as being smarter than I am, no matter which country of origin. Geoff S

Reply to  William Abell
August 21, 2022 11:57 am

(insert name of country) “FIRST it is our moral duty.” Couldn’t agree more. Particularly if you have done a cost-benefit analysis to determine whatever measure you wish to take will actually create a net benefit for the citizens of your country.

Old Man Winter
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 9:37 am

Despite China sustaining itself on Western stupidity & graft, it still
has problems caused by its dictatorial government- an inane zero-Covid
policy & a crashing real estate market due to the same type of
corruption that’s stymied Vlad’s army. India’s democracy keeps them
real as the masses can always “go full Sri Lanka” if they’re too
stupid or corrupt.

Afghlith.jpg
HotScot
Reply to  Old Man Winter
August 21, 2022 12:01 pm

That’s a great meme.

China is doing the world a favour right now by burning coal like it’s going out of fashion. If the west doesn’t want to be commercially and financially subservient to the country, it’s going to have to extract a digit PDQ, ignore ‘the science’ on climate change, and start burning stuff to compete.

Nor does Putin want to be overrun by woke greens, he’s a nationalist, and he’s just delivered the most enormous kick to the nads’ of the west which is exposing the whole climate scam.

Phineas
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 11:41 am

Or it could be that Russia is deliberately dragging out a fake war exactly like the U.S. does and for the same reason. Keep the constant low-grade war going so military contractors and pus-gut politicians can get rich.
This would be the adult view of the situation.

Richard Page
Reply to  Phineas
August 21, 2022 12:39 pm

There’s little doubt that Ukraine and the west have over-inflated the military commitment that Putin has made to the invasion, he seems to be in no hurry and content with grinding down the Ukraine military by attrition. If the Ukraine oligarch’s had been serious about defending their country, you’d imagine they’d have sold less of it’s military capability to other countries, as well as not trying to sell foreign aid weapons on the black market. The casualties of this war are, and continue to be, the ordinary citizens of Ukraine, not the leaders, the oligarch’s or the ones with money in overseas accounts – they’ll survive quite comfortably after the war, whatever happens. What surprised me was the numbers escaping from Ukraine – even from the areas least affected by Russian attacks – they won’t be going back, they’re likely happier to be free of the corrupt system and until that regime is swept away and a better system in place, they’ll all stay in less corrupt countries.

Ron Long
Reply to  Richard Page
August 21, 2022 1:19 pm

I agree totally with retired General Jack Keane, who said “Russia can take Ukraine, but they can’t hold it”. Ukraine is ideally suited to sniper counter-warfare, and the rural people are well adapted to that effort. Ukraine, with possible exception to a little more of SE zone, is another Afghanistan for them.

Richard Page
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 1:53 pm

Russia, too, learned lessons from Afghanistan. While they’ve sent in a minimum of front-line troops, they’re recruiting several battalions of, basically, militia with little training but enough to hold and patrol rear areas behind their own lines. With, honestly, a lot of respect for Jack Keane, I think it’s still too early to be making firm predictions on the outcome of the war. The most I’d be willing to commit to is what I’ve already said – the Ukraine citizens are getting hardest hit and the least in return.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 2:01 pm

Putin doesn’t seem to be having a very easy time taking Ukraine. Reports are he’s aleady gotten 75,000 of his troops killed in the first six months of the war. And we can figure about 225,000 wounded, too. That doesn’t sound like success to me.

General Keane also said the Ukrainians are preparing for a counteroffensive against Putin, depending on whether they can get sufficient weaponry from the West, which is in doubt, but if they are capable of a counteroffensive, then that doesn’t sound like Putin is having much success, either.

I saw a headline today saying the Europeans are wavering in support of Ukraine. That doesn’t surprise me considering how stupid the European politicians have proven to be. They haven’t gotten anything right yet.

Richard Page
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2022 4:38 pm

The report’s of ‘75,000 killed and 225,000 wounded’ are from Ukraine media agencies, based on what I can only imagine is Ukraine propaganda. I think the number is probably hugely inflated from the simple fact that Putin had amassed 150,000 troops on the border with Ukraine, has moved very few reinforcements in and, yet, there are still Russian troops fighting in Ukraine. If those figures were in any way accurate, each Russian would have to have been killed or wounded twice and there wouldn’t be any Russians left to fight. I don’t know what the actual figures are, I don’t think many people really have much idea but I think they are probably far lower than the figures you have quoted.

Richard Page
Reply to  Richard Page
August 21, 2022 5:33 pm

Russian casualty figures are notoriously difficult to find out about; the Kremlin gave out a figure of 1,350ish while Ukraine gave out 43,000ish, whilst NATO estimated a total casualty (dead/wounded) figure of between 7,000 – 15,000 as being likely a month or so ago. Ukraines casualties are harder to estimate, some officials said around 10-11,000 whilst one Ukraine official stated that Ukraine was losing 200 casualties per day of fighting. Likely we will never know just how many people have died in this conflict.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Page
August 23, 2022 4:21 am

“The report’s of ‘75,000 killed and 225,000 wounded’ are from Ukraine media agencies, based on what I can only imagine is Ukraine propaganda.”

Yesterday, I heard the number was 80,000 Russian troops killed.

I also saw a headline claiming Russia has lost 1,800 tanks so far in the battles.

The Ukrainains have fought the Russians to a standstill.

Putin is a dangerous psychopath. It’s good that he is not having his way.

Richard Page
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 23, 2022 7:13 am

I heard that Aliens were blowing up Russian tanks before they could get to the front, still doesn’t make it true. I really do despair of some people, especially on sites like this with a track record of trying to separate MSM bullshit from fact, that simply parrot the same MSM lies without even trying to determine what the truth is – would it kill you to go digging around, use critical thinking and actually try to work out what is going on? Or do you prefer living in your state of blinkered, blissful ignorance?

Richard Page
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2022 4:52 pm

The Ukraine military is counterattacking in several places – near Kharkiv and Kherson being the principal two areas; unfortunately what worked for them before is now working against them. Before, they were defending urban areas which favours the defender, now they are attacking urban areas which favours the Russian defenders. The second problem links into the aid weapons turning up on the black market – Ukraine ministers were forced to admit to US military commanders that they had been selling some weapons on the black market because a) they no longer have the military numbers that can use them and b) most of the military they have left doesn’t have the training to use them. It’s going to be a big problem for Ukraine forces as they have to try to counter the Russians with less and less and the weapons they are receiving just won’t help much.

Reply to  Richard Page
August 21, 2022 8:45 pm

Russia decided to “liberate” the Donbas region without destroying civilian infrastructure in Ukraine.
Even though few residents in the Donbas region wanted to be part of Russia. About one third wanted to be an independent nation.

Preserving the Ukraine civilian infrastructure makes the Russian mission much tougher. They could have shut down Kiev in one day if they wanted to — no electricity, no fresh water, etc. They obviously don’t want to do that. That’s not how World War II was won.

Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2022 8:38 pm

Completely fabricated numbers.
Russia does not issue press releases on deaths and wounded.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 23, 2022 4:23 am

You are free to believe what you want.

Hello from soon-to-be-new NATO member
Reply to  Richard Page
August 22, 2022 3:29 pm

LOL. Russia has lost most of its best trained airborne and marine infantry units in the first phases of “special operation” and the remaining airborne units are so depleted that their troops are refusing to return to front line. Russia has also lost 2/3 of its front line MBTs and they are sending 50+ years old T-62 to Ukraine (there are newer models in “storage” but only few are usable without major rebuilding – and most have their electronics, copper wiring, engines etc. stolen).
They have also problems with getting new manpower to replace the casualties – Putin cannot declare state of war (which would allow for calling reservists) and thus Russians are recruiting criminals for prisoners and the max age for contract soldiers is raised to – is it already 60? Some time ago there were news about Russians recruiting Syrian militia, ppl from Sudan and Ethiopia – but it seems like those efforts were not very successful.
Russia is also running out of precision weapons – instead of those feared “stealthy cruisemissiles” that no-one can stop and that hit targets with pin-point accuracy, they are currently shooting anti-air and anti-ship missiles to ground targets with +/-1km accuracy. Russian airforce has also faced devastating losses – it seems like they have lost about 1/2 of their operable front line planes and actually they are not capable of operating over Ukrainian controlled airspace. That is quite a shame for Russians as everyone even in the western countries thought that Ukrainian airforce wouldn’t have any change and would be destroyed in first hours of the conflict.
Russian Black Sea Navy has also turned out be substandard. They lost their flagships to “made in Ukraine” missiles as well as some landing ships and at the moment they have evacuated most of their fleet from Sevastopol to Novorussiysk – and that might be the wisest thing their navy has done as airbases and ammodepots at Krim have been “mysteriously” exploding recently.
It has been nice to notice how Russian military bases next to Finnish border have been emptying (marines and mechanized crops near Murmansk, airmechanized troops from Alakurtti, air assault division form Pskov etc.) and how many military funerals are being held there.
What comes to trade sanctions – OK, they hurt as, but they are hurting Russian more and thus let’s go to the bitter end. Furthermore, we must keep providing Ukraine with all the weapons and materiel it needs in order to grind down the barbaric Russian forces to the ground and to retake all the territory that is rightfully Ukrainian.

Richard Page
Reply to  Hello from soon-to-be-new NATO member
August 22, 2022 6:53 pm

That’s some mighty fine grade A bullcrap there – not one tiny bit of it can be proven, of course, and pretty much all of it can be disproven. Lets just get down to the last point you made and see what we can sort out: sending more weapons of the types already sent is useless, Ukraine military cannot use more than a fraction of what they are getting and are selling the rest. Ukraine doesn’t need or particularly want weapons that need weeks of training when those trained operators are then killed after firing them. What they need is more trained troops to go along with the weapons – Russia has always been able to absorb more punishment than Ukraine in a war of attrition which is exactly what we are seeing. Unless we’re willing to send troops to Ukraine then there is very little point in dragging out the inevitable for much longer.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Hello from soon-to-be-new NATO member
August 23, 2022 4:33 am

Excellent comment from our new NATO member.

Yes, we must go to the bitter end and support Ukraine. Psychopaths like Putin must be resisted at all costs.

Richard Page
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 23, 2022 7:08 am

Oddly enough Tom, I agree with you – it’s a real shame that the rest of the world has been willing to let Ukraine go; whether the UK, EU or USA, they’ve done the absolute minimum to support Ukraine on the cheap; sending a few $billion in arms shipments, most of which they’ll never be able to use. If these countries were serious when they urged Zelensky to poke Russia then they should have sent troops to support Ukraine because without them, Ukraine cannot win this war of attrition.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Page
August 24, 2022 4:39 am

“when they urged Zelensky to poke Russia”

Putin propaganda. Putin is the one doing the poking.

Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
Reply to  Phineas
August 21, 2022 2:59 pm

No they don’t have a military industrial complex like the US – their weapons manufacture is not full of graft like the US

Reply to  Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
August 21, 2022 8:46 pm

The US lost wars with North Vietnam and Afghanistan despite the military industrial complex.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 23, 2022 4:39 am

The U.S. military didn’t lose any wars. Vietnam and Afghanistan were given away by stupid politiicans. It had nothing to do with military prowess, or a military-industrial complex. The loses had everything to do with stupid decisions on the part of Democrat politicians who don’t understand how to defend the United States. That’s why Democrats should never be put in charge of U.S. national security. They don’t have a clue. Just look at our current situation. Typical Democrat stupidity got us here.

Last edited 3 months ago by Tom Abbott
Tim Gorman
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 24, 2022 7:02 am

bravo!

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Phineas
August 22, 2022 5:23 am

Phineas,
You are not alone with that speculation about duration of Russian action. Geoff S

HotScot
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 11:42 am

Russia has been shown to be a stuffed panda bear by it’s military disaster in Ukraine

LOL. That would be the Russia which has largely achieved every objective it declared, securing eastern Ukraine from an almost certain genocidal attack by Zelensky’s Ukraine.

It’s a matter of record that Zelensky mounted an artillery barrage on the Donbas for seven days before Russia crossed the border to intervene. Russia didn’t start the shooting. They delivered UN Article 51 legally.

When Zelensky demanded a no fly zone be imposed by the west he was refused. Why? Because the west can’t be seen internationally to be supporting an aggressor.

Not one legal western boot is on the ground in Ukraine. Why? Because it would be seen as western support of an aggressor.

Putin also promised he would expose the western elite for what they really are, the real global tyrants, which is precisely what he’s doing.

The leaders of well over half the worlds population refuse to condemn Russia. Why? Maybe they now have the resources, organisation and guts to stand up to our own corrupt western, warmongering leaders.

And if Putin is a tyrant, why is his support in Russia around 83%, and why, when Russians are as free to travel the world as you and me, are their not throngs of Russian refugee’s crossing the southern US border, or more pertinently, paddling across the English Channel with the tens of thousands of other refugees we house every year?

He’s also had the good sense to extricate his country from the stranglehold of the IMF and World Bank, both Rothchild run organisations, and kicked out the WHO.

But sure, whilst the west stood by and watched genocide unfold in Rwanda and Bosnia (amongst others) Putin is the bad guy for refusing to witness it in the Donbas, because he promised them he would protect them, and he did.

Rico Suave
Reply to  Ron Long
August 21, 2022 5:59 pm

“India can never advance such a huge population to economic prosperity”

Why Not? India has the same population as China and China did it. China’s population is getting older very quickly thanks to their one child policy. China’s working age population 18-55 is already shrinking, albeit from a very large number. In 10-20 years, there will be far more workers in the 18-55 age bracket in India than China.

Michael in Dublin
August 21, 2022 6:47 am

We need to confront each and every politician with this climate and energy folly
and to demand a carefully reasoned response and workable solutions.

Pensioners and poorer sections of society across Western Europe and the UK, unable to afford skyrocketing heating and electricity bills, will be the most affected proximate victims. But even worse injuries to people’s lives and livelihoods will be among the vast populations of the developing countries that live in poverty or on the edges of it. The surge in the price of food, fertilizer and fuel as a result of the sanctions will punish the far-flung innocent poor the most.

Reply to  Michael in Dublin
August 21, 2022 12:01 pm

We need to confront each and every politician with this climate and energy folly
and to demand a carefully reasoned response and workable solutions.”

Insist on a cost-benefit analysis for any proposed action, rule, or regulation. One that is vetted by engineers, economists, and a selection of experienced individuals from a cross-section of our society. Work experience in their respective fields is required.

Jim
August 21, 2022 6:58 am

The self appointed leaders of this new world disorder need to be reigned in. Yes they have money but few brains. That is a major issue and concern.

Last edited 3 months ago by Jim
William Abell
Reply to  Jim
August 21, 2022 7:50 am

Power is the drug of choice for this crew.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Jim
August 21, 2022 10:05 am

I don’t think the Davos crowd lacks brains, they do have evil intent though. They suffer from the “God Complex” where most of the population might as well be insects that are ruining their picnic. They are in the process of stomping on us.

HotScot
Reply to  Brad-DXT
August 21, 2022 12:03 pm

100%!

Never underestimate your enemy.

Peta of Newark
August 21, 2022 7:06 am

Aw no no no, don’t worry about how Germans will keep warm this winter…

Ruthless Vorsprung Durch Technik will win the day

Headline:”German heat pump boom tests….?…..?”
<Curious, what does it test>

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Peta of Newark
August 21, 2022 8:25 am

As Flanders & Swann put it

German German overalls

(Deutschland Deutschland über alles)

Last edited 3 months ago by It doesnot add up
AGW is Not Science
Reply to  Peta of Newark
August 21, 2022 8:50 am

Heat pumps are extremely expensive and ineffective in serious cold, as in “high latitudes.” You might do OK with a heat pump in a Florida winter, Germany not so much.

More to the point, however, is this – What difference would a heat pump make if you can’t afford or rely on the electric required to run it?!

Wharfplank
August 21, 2022 7:07 am

This will be problematic for the Deep State and its various media outlets attempting to maintain the fiction that heat kills more than than cold. Expect a surge in deaths this winter in Europe to be down to “causes unknown”.

Scissor
Reply to  Wharfplank
August 21, 2022 7:31 am

Still, it’s amazing that obviously false narratives can be maintained by censorship and omission. Now, the death of a child by heart attack or stroke is normal. La, la, la…

Will frozen bodies, stacked like cord wood, become part of the normal landscape?

HotScot
Reply to  Scissor
August 21, 2022 12:07 pm

I have numerous friends coming down with mysterious conditions. No previous vulnerability, no history, usually in rude health.

I daren’t point out any ‘coincidences’.

Rico Suave
Reply to  Wharfplank
August 21, 2022 6:04 pm

Nope, they will write them off as more “Covid” deaths and lock down harder.

August 21, 2022 7:39 am

:Russia responded with a “roubles for gas” scheme for “non-friendly” countries (i.e. those participating in the sanctions) as a prototype for all of Russia’s major commodity exports to a hostile Western alliance.:

Nonsense
Harsh banking sanctions on Russia made Euros like Monopoly money for Russian companies, with no ability to know if those sanctions will ever end.

Companies such as Gazprom must require payments in rubles for that reason.
This is not a “scheme’ — this is common sense in response to banking sanctions. Russian corporations receiving Euros may never be able to spend the money. Can anyone expect Russian corporate executives to sell their products for currency that may be worthless to them? The Russian companies want to sell as much natural resources as their customers are willing to buy. Very profitable, if paid for with rubles, but not if paid for in Euros or US dollars.

Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 8:21 am

A scheme is a neutral word meaning “mechanism” that is all. And nothing I wrote suggest that the scheme is not common sense. So what is your beef? All your points are redundant. For the items you mentioned I have covered in my previous Forbes articles. Read them if you want to critique any further

HotScot
Reply to  Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
August 21, 2022 12:09 pm

Richard knows everything about everything. Didn’t you know that?

Richard Page
Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 12:43 pm

Please be very careful and precise when you comment – we wouldn’t want any unfortunate misunderstandings, would we?

Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 12:46 pm

Thanks Dad !

Reply to  Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
August 21, 2022 12:18 pm

“Scheme” is commonly thought to be planned and negative.
People rarely think of a scheme as positive. The payment in rubles was a common sense response to surprisingly harsh banking sanctions. Most people would never call that a “scheme.’ But you did.

I commented on THIS ARTICLE. I should not have to read all of your articles to comment on this one. That is a basic rule of analyzing articles. They should stand alone with conclusions supported by facts and data, and not mislead readers.

The “Roubles for gas” scheme phrase was misleading. I explained why. My points added to the brief details on the sanctions already made in your article. You have not refuted a single point that I made. You ought to learn how to take criticism.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 2:12 pm

““Scheme” is commonly thought to be planned and negative.”

That might be the case in the United States, but as I found out some months ago, it is not looked at that way in Europe.

I looked at it the way you did, being from the United States, until I was corrected. 🙂

Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2022 8:49 pm

Don’t let them there Europeanos push you around !

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 22, 2022 5:32 am

Who, Richard, those inventors of the English language? Geoff S

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 3:26 pm

Fair enough — but again, nothing in my article suggests that I don’t agree or know with the common sense of not accepting dollars or Euros since Russia has been ex-communicated from the global capitalist system run on US Davos 2 rules

Reply to  Tilak K Doshi
August 21, 2022 8:50 pm

OK, now we arer riends instead of enemas.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 8:21 am

It is the Russian banks who end up with dollars and euros. Still fairly useless. However, look at those rouble invoices. What exchange rate to euro denominated contracts are they converted at? What do Europeans have to pay to buy roubles to pay them? The difference is a price increase that strains European finances further. If unleashed it can become an inflationary tsunami of money supply, buying up all sorts of assets. If bottled up it is like taxation with no offsetting government spending.

Reply to  It doesn't add up...
August 21, 2022 12:22 pm

If the sanction on Russia end up hurting your nation, then you should consider ending the sanctions on Russia. It’s that simple.

Did any of these nations sanctioning Russia also sanction the US for attacking Iraq, based on completely false weapons of mass destruction claims and false implications that Iraq was somehow involved in 9/11? I don’t think so. Seems hypocritical to me. The US destroyed more civilian infrastructure in Iraq than Russia has in Ukraine so far.

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 1:26 pm

Any nation opting for sanctions knows they will damage themselves more than the sanctioned country. If they really want to win they have to be capable of winning a war and seem prepared to do so. Speak softly and carry a big stick.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 2:28 pm

Saddam Insane had the option of allowing weapons inspectors into Iraq to determine whether he had Weapons of Mass destruction and had he done so, no war would have ensued.

President G.W. Bush declared “Major Combat” over within a matter of weeks of the beginning of the war. Most destruction took place on the Iraqi military.

The Iraqis were happy to be rid of Saddam. I remember them happily holding up their ink-stained finger, signifying their first free vote in their life. I remember the thriving economy that came about after Saddam.

Then Obama and Biden came into office and screwed everything in Iraq up by favoring the Mad Mullahs of Iran’s interests, and by allowing the Islamic Terror Army to surface and thrive and kill and displace millions of innocent people in the area and Obama and Biden didn’t lift a finger to put a stop to it, which threw Iraq and the region into turmoil.

Then Trump came in and ended the Islamic Terror Army in a matter of months. Trump used the same U.S. military that Obama and Biden had available to them. The difference was Trump was willing to use them to quell the situation and Obama and Biden were not.

MarkW
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 3:26 pm

Nobody in the US ever claimed, or even implied that Iraq was involved in 9/11. That was a lie the left invented after the fact to try and distract from the real reasons.
As to WMDs,
1) They were found
2) Mothballed weapons programs were found.
3) Saddam was required to let inspectors inspect. He refused to allow inspections and was from that fact alone in default of the cease fire agreement.
4) Are you totally delusional regarding infrastructure, or do you just repeat whatever Putin tells you to repeat?

Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2022 8:57 pm

WND were old, most likely obsolete, chemicals buried underground for safety, and not used since the war with IRAN … that no one in the US complained about.

Anyone who still thinks the invasion of Iraq was justified is either a warmonger, liar or a fool. Or all three.

Kiev still has electricity, water and the internet. It was Russia’s decision not to destroy that infrastructure.
That is a fact, not delusional.
Russia may change their mind in the future.
Because destroying civilian infrastructure wins wars.

Richard Page
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 22, 2022 1:44 am

Nobody in the US complained about the WMD’s left over from the Iran-Iraq war because the rounds were NATO M687 chemical munitions mainly from Italy (I believe) sold empty after NATO abandoned it’s chemical weapons programs. Don’t forget that, during the Iran-Iraq war, Hussein had a very close working relationship with the US and many top US officials went to Iraq to broker arms deals to use against Iran.

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  It doesn't add up...
August 21, 2022 3:28 pm
MarkW
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 3:22 pm

If that was true, then Russia would demand payment in Rubles from everybody.

Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2022 5:02 pm

That’s true, Gazprom required roubles for spot market purchases. What did the countries, like Hungary, that had contracts pay with? I genuinely don’t know, and would like to, if anyone has an answer?

Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2022 9:02 pm

Gazprom wants any currencies it can use. They do not want to cut off all gas supplies to customers, and permanently lose their customers.

The system, which involves the creation of two accounts at Gazprombank, enables Europe to say it is technically paying for natural gas in euros, while Russia can say it is receiving payment in rubles — a requirement Putin imposed on “unfriendly” nations.

Olen
August 21, 2022 7:49 am

This ineptness is what you get from the people being cut out of elections and the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud supported by all three branches of government.

Reply to  Olen
August 21, 2022 12:23 pm

Leftists ruin everything they touch
Why would electric grids be an exception?

markl
August 21, 2022 7:50 am

Another “conspiracy theory” comes to fruition.

Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
Reply to  markl
August 21, 2022 8:21 am

Say what?

Brad-DXT
Reply to  Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
August 21, 2022 10:20 am

I believe he means that statements that were once referred to as a conspiracy theory, are now considered factual with evidence.

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  Brad-DXT
August 21, 2022 3:30 pm

Ah, I see. Yes

HotScot
Reply to  Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
August 21, 2022 12:10 pm

Irony. Y’know, the thing you press your clothes with…….

HotScot
Reply to  markl
August 21, 2022 12:10 pm

👍 👍 🤣 🤣

Mark Krebs
August 21, 2022 8:14 am

Thanks for the heat pump clip. According to the narrator, “heat pumps use 1/4 the energy of a gas boiler.”

Not true. See Fallacies of Supplying American LNG and Electric Heat Pumps to Europe to Fight Putin and Global Warminghttps://www.realclearenergy.org/2022/05/10/fallacies_of_supplying_american_lng_and_electric_heat_pumps_to_europe_to_fight_putin_and_global_warming_831464.html

John
Reply to  Mark Krebs
August 21, 2022 8:33 am

My electric heat pump system installed in my home 7 years ago is by far the most efficient system I have ever owned for both heating and cooling. I’m talking at least 5 times less energy usage than forced air systems. I am shocked this isn’t mandated for all new homes which would shrink energy use and therefore emissions.

Tim Gorman
Reply to  John
August 21, 2022 9:36 am

This depends very much on where you live. My parents bought a heat pump when they had new insulation and vinyl siding installed, a move to higher efficiency. Within five years they abandoned the heat pump and went back to forced air. The heat pump just didn’t work out for three months of the year when winter was at its worst. This was in Kansas.

400 miles south in Oklahoma my brother did just fine with his heat pump – the winter temps hardly ever got below freezing.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tim Gorman
August 21, 2022 2:47 pm

The temperatures got down to 12 below zero F here in my part of Oklahoma during the February 2021 arctic blast. That was as cold as I’ve ever seen it around here.

My forced-air heater kept me cozy, thank goodness. No blackouts here.

TonyG
Reply to  Tim Gorman
August 22, 2022 9:16 am

Within five years they abandoned the heat pump and went back to forced air.

I’m a bit confused by this statement – I was under the impression that forced air was the method of distribution (a blower and ductwork throughout the house) and heat pump was the method of heating or cooling the air going through the system.

What am I not getting here?

Tim Gorman
Reply to  TonyG
August 22, 2022 1:28 pm

I guess I wasn’t clear. They went back to a nat gas furnace and conventional air conditioner using a compressor. The heat pump went to a local salvage yard.

TonyG
Reply to  Tim Gorman
August 23, 2022 10:00 am

Thank you for the clarification, Tim!

John Garrett
Reply to  John
August 21, 2022 9:44 am

I once bought a place with an existing heat pump.

Never again! I hated it— the coldest “warmth” I’ve ever experienced.

Brad-DXT
Reply to  John
August 21, 2022 10:28 am

It depends on where it is used.
If you are frequently subject to temperatures beyond the operating parameters, you will suffer. It is not an efficient system for everyone.

HotScot
Reply to  John
August 21, 2022 12:14 pm

I own a solid masonry, Victorian cottage. I inquired about a heat pump and the engineer laughed and said “don’t bother mate”.

It would take £70,000 of modifications to even think of installing one at a cost of £30,000 and the engineer told me even then they wouldn’t sell me one in case I sued them for it under performing.

AGW is Not Science
Reply to  John
August 21, 2022 1:38 pm

Where do you live?

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
August 22, 2022 5:40 am

AGW is not Science,
HotScot lives in a solid, masonry Victorian cottage. Geoff S

Richard Page
Reply to  AGW is Not Science
August 22, 2022 2:01 pm

What was the currency he used? Join the dots…..

MarkW
Reply to  John
August 21, 2022 3:32 pm

How old was the system you were replacing?
Most people don’t replace ACs until they are 25 to 30 years old.
It’s hardly surprising that a brand new unit using modern technology is more efficient than a worn out unit that’s using 30 years old technology.

5 times more efficient? Utterly impossible, unless your old system was totally worn out and not cooling anything.

We also don’t know where you live. In places like Florida, heat pumps are an option. In places where it actually gets cold, they don’t do as well.

Zig Zag Wanderer
Reply to  Mark Krebs
August 21, 2022 10:21 am

As others say, it all depends. That’s really where you live, and how you use it.

I use a heat pump solely for heating my pool in the winter in the tropics. It is in my shed, which is dark on the outside and gets plenty of sunshine during the day. It starts off when the internal temperature is about 20C, rising to about 30C in the afternoon, and heats my pool from about 25C to 28C most days. It probably returns 6 to 8x the energy that it uses.

Aside from that, I don’t need heating.

HotScot
Reply to  Zig Zag Wanderer
August 21, 2022 12:17 pm

For one unit of energy expended, your heat pump returns 6 to 8 times that?

Let me think about that for a while, I could be wealthier than Bill gates this time next year…….

Richard Page
Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 12:52 pm

Given that all it does is heat the water in a pool by about 2-3C it probably isn’t quite the magical energy machine you think it is. Clumsy wording though!

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 1:27 pm

A nodding donkey on an oil well should better that.

tgasloli
August 21, 2022 8:26 am

The war of attrition isn’t between G-7 and Russia, it is between the G-7 governments and their own people. They are grinding their own citizens down with relentless economic destruction under various frauds (COVID, Climate Change, Ukraine). And like all wars of attrition everyone loses.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  tgasloli
August 21, 2022 8:59 am

Excellent!

Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
Reply to  tgasloli
August 21, 2022 9:24 am

It is both

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
August 21, 2022 10:01 am

Very nice article, but I’ll side with tgasloli that governments that weren’t making war on their own people wouldn’t be seeking war with Russia.

Reply to  Frank from NoVA
August 21, 2022 12:31 pm

After eight years of no one trying to stop the Donbas civil war, with 14,000 dead on both sides since 2014, Russia decided to stop the slaughter of Russian speaking Ukrainians. They may regret doing so, but they decided to act.

Some of the Donbas region Ukrainians wanted to have a separate country — not part of Russia. If allowed to vote on independence years ago, they would have LOST the vote — perhaps 30% to 35% wanted independence — but no vote was ever allowed. Too many civilians (11,000) had died by 2022 and the violence was escalating in EARLY 2022. This mess took eight years to develop.

The US and UK not helping Ukraine keep Crimea IN 2014, as promised in the 1990s, told Russian they would also not help Ukraine keep the Donbas region in 2022.

Last edited 3 months ago by Richard Greene
Richard Page
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 12:59 pm

Actually, I think you’ll find that the Russian-speaking residents of Donbas wanted an autonomous region within Ukraine, similar to what the Russian speaking residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia wanted, just before Georgia invaded. Isn’t it amazing that western countries are ready to steamroller small regions who want self-determination whilst defending the rights of self-determination of the aggressor when a bigger bully picks a fight.

MarkW
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
August 21, 2022 3:36 pm

Nobody is seeking war with Russia. Russia on the other hand has a history of invading it’s neighbors.

Richard Page
Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2022 5:05 pm

Erm let’s not emphasise that point too much; go back far enough and almost every country has a history of invading somewhere else.

Frank from NoVA
Reply to  MarkW
August 21, 2022 5:26 pm

‘Nobody is seeking war with Russia.’

Mark, you’re by far one of the best commenters on this site, but please take off the blinders as to what ‘Biden’ and his neo-con allies of convenience are up to in Ukraine.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Frank from NoVA
August 23, 2022 5:06 am

MarkW isn’t the one who needs to take off the blinders.

If Joe Biden could figure out a way to get out of Ukraine, he would do it, but he can’t because it would be a huge public relations disaster for him.

Biden is an appeaser. He has been all his life. He hasn’t changed his stripes over Ukraine. He would throw Ukraine to the wolves just like he did with Vietnam and Afghanistan if he could.

Yes, American arms makers make a lot of money supplying armies. So who pays off Biden, in this conspiracy theory, the American arms dealers or Putin or the Ukrainians? Or all? You claim money is driving this war. Where’s Joe getting his money?

HotScot
Reply to  Tilakdoshi@yahoo.com
August 21, 2022 12:18 pm

Putin has promised he will expose the western elites and their climate change scam. Which is precisely what he’s doing.

Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 12:51 pm

China seems to be doing a good job too. along with India, and perhaps every undeveloped nation in the world. They seem to nor care about CO2 emissions and Nut Zero, although many would like some handouts of $$$ or Euros.

It doesn't add up...
August 21, 2022 8:37 am

the minister defended India’s crude oil imports from Russia.

He is doing the world a service by ensuring that Russian supply contributes to the global position. Imagine were that supply shut in altogether. That is why gas is now trading at such a premium to oil in a strange reversal of normality.

Felix
August 21, 2022 8:48 am

Sanctions are a wonderful weapon, as long as they are narrowly targeted and short term enough that you can absorb the recoil. The West thought Russia was a small corner of the world economy and their war would be over soon, at first by Ukraine surrendering, later by Putin giving up, and there is no plan C.

But oil and gas are fungible. China and Russia have a long border and nearby sea ports. The combined economies got too big for painless sanctions, and India recognized an opportunity to game the sanctions for cheap fuel and huge profits. Suddenly the recoil began to hurt even without expanding sanctions.

And the Western public is starting to feel the recoil too, and complaining. The winter recoil is going to be much much worse. You can hide in the shade when it’s too hot, but cold kills 10-20 times as many people as heat, and the only anti-shade to hide in is fire wood, apparently.

AndyHce
Reply to  Felix
August 21, 2022 11:41 am

Probably the majority of people in the US, certainly many people, have no way to use firewood even if they could get it.

Richard Page
Reply to  Felix
August 21, 2022 1:03 pm

Sanctions are quite effective when used sparingly, or just once; if you use them too often, the target finds a work-around and they become completely useless.

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  Felix
August 21, 2022 3:36 pm

Actually gas is highly un-fungible and completely unlike oil. Gas pipelines and LNG do not a fungible product make.

Felix
Reply to  Tilak K Doshi
August 21, 2022 6:01 pm

It’s a whole lot more fungible than, say, used airliners.

Duane
August 21, 2022 9:38 am

Excellent analysis, Comrade Doshi!! Thank you for reminding us that Comrade Putin is kicking western ass, his economiy is not really a shambles, that everybody really loves him and wants to enjoy his tender mercies over that of the evil western propagandists!

RT Salutes you!

John Garrett
Reply to  Duane
August 21, 2022 10:02 am

You are free to engage in magical thinking but don’t confuse that with reality or realpolitik, as “progressive/liberal/world savers” are prone to do.

“Seek truth from facts.”
-Mao Zedong (f/k/a Mao Tse-Tung)

Last edited 3 months ago by John Garrett
Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  Duane
August 21, 2022 10:07 am

Nothing I wrote is in “support” of Putin or anyone else. It is a take on realpolitik.

HotScot
Reply to  Tilak K Doshi
August 21, 2022 12:21 pm

Duane isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer.

Richard Page
Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 1:05 pm

Duane still hasn’t found the knife drawer, he’s still in with the spoons – he’s going to have a heart attack when he finds himself in the fork drawer though!

MarkW
Reply to  HotScot
August 21, 2022 3:39 pm

He’s not the sharpest rolling pin in the bakery.

Reply to  Duane
August 21, 2022 12:40 pm

Comrade Doshi?
Give us a break

The Soviet economy was hurt and so was the German economy
And the war goes on.

Kevin R.
August 21, 2022 9:55 am

According to Gina McCarthy the White House National Climate Advisor, this is all going to lead to world peace.

HotScot
Reply to  Kevin R.
August 21, 2022 12:21 pm

🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣

It doesn't add up...
Reply to  Kevin R.
August 21, 2022 1:29 pm

Did she ever qualify for Miss World, or was that her shot at it?

Richard Page
Reply to  Kevin R.
August 21, 2022 2:08 pm

Hmpf. The peace of the grave, no doubt.

John Garrett
August 21, 2022 9:56 am

Thank you, Tilak Doshi, for responding on WUWT to comments on your excellent piece.

It’s refreshing to see reporting that points out the impossibility of enforcing sanctions on a fungible commodity and the commercial reality of transshipments by third parties and straw purchasers. This was and is an entirely predictable outcome.

British English speakers understand the word “scheme” to mean an arrangement. This contrasts with American English speakers whose understanding of the word bears a prejudice suggesting something underhanded or nefarious.

Last edited 3 months ago by John Garrett
Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  John Garrett
August 21, 2022 10:10 am

Actually it was projection by the commentator — I used the word “scheme” as countless Reuters and other major news sources have used in its purely common and neutral sense of an “arrangement”.

John Garrett
Reply to  Tilak K Doshi
August 21, 2022 10:21 am

Tilak K. Doshi,
Thank you.

I was well aware that you used the word correctly and the commentator chose to comprehend it in a prejudiced shading.

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  John Garrett
August 22, 2022 5:52 am

John G
I second that.
There is a dying art in the correct use of English language. Some of my Indian friends have been among the most conscientious. FFS, Americans who root for sporting teams, and sing pop like uneducated Negros, not quite so, when ‘love’ becomes ‘lurv’. Geoff S

Reply to  John Garrett
August 21, 2022 12:44 pm

Exactly right
Al Gore frequently used the phrase “risky scheme” to attack Republicans and we never forgot it

Al Gore’s Risky Theme | Washington Examiner

Richard Page
Reply to  Richard Greene
August 21, 2022 1:08 pm

I think it must be an Americanism; scheme as in scheming rather than the British use of the word.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Richard Page
August 21, 2022 2:55 pm

Yes, scheme means scam over here.

atticman
Reply to  John Garrett
August 22, 2022 3:03 am

To be fair, John, we Brits also sometimes use it in that sense, the context generally giving the clue as to the way it’s being used.

JBP
August 21, 2022 10:28 am

So then to summarize: increasing CO2 levels coupled with freedom of choice at the personal level in the marketplace dooms the planet?

AndyHce
Reply to  JBP
August 21, 2022 11:46 am

It is really only personal choice that is the villain in the eyes of the power mad. CO2 levels are only a smoke screen cover for eliminating as much choice as possible.

Bob
August 21, 2022 11:17 am

This was a fine article and very informative. There is one glaring omission however. Tilak Doshi points out clearly that the western efforts to punish Russia have largely failed, that the west is suffering more than Russia. He(?) points out that the developing world has had enough of being man handled by the west. All of this is right on the money, of course he is right. The glaring omission is the fact that the west could save itself yet it sits on it’s a$$ crying like a baby how bad they have it. Spare me. Start drilling, tell your neighbors to start drilling. Start up your nuclear generators, build more nuclear generators. Mine your coal, start up your coal generators, build more coal generators. Stop pi$$ing your money away subsiding wind and solar, make them pay their own way. All of this is so obvious it shouldn’t take a lowly layman to point it out. These whiners make me sick, they have brought ALL of their problems on themselves and then cry like babies when it hurts. Have I told you they make me sick?

Dave Fair
Reply to  Bob
August 21, 2022 11:55 am

Have I told you how much I agree with you, Bob?

Richard Page
Reply to  Bob
August 21, 2022 1:12 pm

Western politicians appear to be falling over themselves to pander to the woke minority that are doing exactly as you say and, in doing so, making you sick.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Bob
August 21, 2022 3:02 pm

They should have listened to Trump and become energy independent, or at least not dependent on those who will cut them off at just the wrong moment.

Our deluded politicans have put everyone in this horrible position. We should probably vote for sane politicians next time.

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  Bob
August 21, 2022 3:42 pm

Completely agree. But glaring omission? In the short space of the article, I covered this by my sentence on Greta: “Never mind that many of them including their leaders actually belief Greta-like that continued use of fossil fuels will lead to planetary damnation (in 12 years or at mid or end of the century along a spectrum of climate alarmism).”

Bob
Reply to  Tilak K Doshi
August 22, 2022 7:05 pm

Tilak, yes I remember that sentence but there is a difference between leaders believing fossil fuels are bad and leaders sitting purposely on their backside allowing their constituents to roast in the heat, freeze in the cold and needlessly pay exorbitant prices for fuel and other commodities while sitting on all the resources that could solve our problems. Their hateful inaction needs to be shouted from every rooftop. These people are heartless monsters.

Viti
August 21, 2022 1:20 pm

Maybe someone can dig up the formula for liquid fuel from coal?

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Viti
August 21, 2022 3:03 pm

Dust off the woodgas plans.

Tom Abbott
August 21, 2022 1:44 pm

From the article: “The battle of attrition between the G-7 and Russia continues as the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently went on “a charm offensive in Africa to regain the US popularity which was lost ostensibly during the Trump administration”

Bulls**t! Tell us how Trump caused US popularity to fall in Africa.

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2022 3:47 pm

This does not deserve a reply, in my view. This sentence is direct quotes from the African writer in the linked source article.

Tom Abbott
Reply to  Tilak K Doshi
August 23, 2022 5:39 am

From your link:

https://www.newtimes.co.rw/opinions/antony-blinkens-nearly-impossible-mission-dr-congo-and-rwanda

“The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is now on a charm offensive in Africa to regain the US popularity which was lost ostensibly during the Trump administration. . .”

The reputation of the US as a super power in Africa has been tarnished in the past. Hilary Clinton started this process and president Trump’s disinterest and disrespect for African countries and his blatant racism towards blacks did the rest.”

end excerpts

If this “president Trump’s disinterest and disrespect for African countries and his blatant racism towards blacks did the rest” isn’t an American leftwing talking point, I don’t know what is.

This is an evidence-free assertion. There’s no evidence presented that Trump was disinterested or disrespected African countries and there’s no evidence President Trump is a racist towards anyone. In other words, it’s bull****. When I saw you passing along Democrat talking points as facts, the first thing that popped in my mind was: Bull****. I stand by it.

I do appreciate your articles, but this part of this article is a distortion of reality. It wasn’t you who distorted reality, but it was you who spread this distortion without question. So it was up to me to question it. No offense intended, but the record does need to be kept straight, especially where it concerns Donald Trump, who is a possible game-changer for all of us.

The author:

“Marc Hoogsteyns is a free-lance journalist who lived and worked most of his life in the African Great Lakes Region. He covers Countries especially DRCongo, Rwanda and Burundi. He runs Kivu Press Agency.”

I’m betting Mr. Hoogsteyns is a lefty and pays attention to American politics.

Tilak K Doshi
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 24, 2022 8:14 am

Let’s not resort to ad hominems on the African journalist. Lets just read the sentence — without all the excerpts. I see no reason why the sentence is a “distortion of reality”. Your opinion does not make it so.

MarkW
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2022 3:51 pm

Leftist hated Trump.
Of course, because most of them exist in echo chambers, they still believe that everybody agrees with them.

Richard Page
Reply to  Tom Abbott
August 21, 2022 5:13 pm

From the comments I heard at the time it seemed to be Biden’s ‘election’ more than Trump per se. African politicians wanted to know why the US was lecturing them about possibly fraudulent elections when the US 2020 election had all the same hallmarks?

Geoff Sherrington
Reply to  Richard Page
August 22, 2022 6:04 am

In the future, scholarly and neutral reporting of Trump Derangement Syndrome will make fascinating reading. It is already plausible to assume significant differences in comparison with, for example, hate for Adolf. There are some traits in sport, where large numbers of people express distaste with a football goalie or similar. Hate of the Office exists alongside hate of the person. Hate that the First Lady is so beautiful in many ways. It is a complex syndrome unmatched in my insignificant view.
From Australia so not a voter, I admire former President Trump and hope for a win in 2024 Geoff S

TonyG
Reply to  Geoff Sherrington
August 22, 2022 9:19 am

scholarly and neutral reporting of Trump Derangement Syndrome will make fascinating reading

If it’s ever allowed to occur.

Richard Page
Reply to  TonyG
August 22, 2022 2:07 pm

Well we’re probably thinking decades rather than years but still.

observa
August 21, 2022 5:42 pm

We need more solar panels and windmills to get back there-
Glacial archaeologists find arrow in melting ice (msn.com)

Christopher Chantrill
August 21, 2022 7:58 pm

Really, it is better to have the climate change “winter of discontent” now instead of in ten years when it would really bite hard and deep.

griff
August 22, 2022 1:26 am

Russia’s Economy Really Is Crumbling Under Sanctions (foreignpolicy.com)

Five months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, there remains a startling lack of understanding by many Western policymakers and commentators of the economic dimensions of President Vladimir Putin’s invasion and what it has meant for Russia’s economic positioning both domestically and globally.

Far from being ineffective or disappointing, as many have argued, international sanctions and voluntary business retreats have exerted a devastating effect over Russia’s economy. 

Richard Page
Reply to  griff
August 22, 2022 9:29 am

That’s a lot of speculation in that article, more so than in many articles I’ve seen that also purport to have ‘the inside track’ on what’s happening in Russia. From what we can see the sanctions are having little short term effect – they are a long term tool to destroy Russia and it is still too soon to evaluate their full effect. Russia has certainly not been ‘crippled’, is not ‘crumbling’ nor is it’s destruction imminent as these biased sources would have us believe. It really will be a race to the bottom, between the EU, Russia and USA, to see who gives in first and gets the sanctions lifted for their own good. I don’t think it will be Russia; they’ve had over 8 years to get used to how the sanctions work, while their economy failed to collapse as predicted, and this latest round has been prepared for. This article is echoing the exact same prediction we’ve heard over and over again from the very first time sanctions were imposed, that Russia is teetering on the brink of collapse; those predictions failed to materialise and this one will as well, Russia may have problems but they appear to be more resilient than the West imagined.

Last edited 3 months ago by Richard Page
Geoff Sherrington
August 22, 2022 5:03 am

Pedantry post.
Please use ‘center’ in US or ‘centre’ in true English but AVOID ‘epicenter’ unless you are writing only about earthquakes. Geoff S

%d bloggers like this: