Failed Climate Predictions – Willie Soon, PhD

The list could be shorter of climate predictions which came true. I think that number is somewhere around zero.

PHONEY PHYSICS

According to the way climate scientists calculate Earth’s mean surface temperature, it is 5.45°C without clouds (and without surface reflections), and -18.3°C with clouds etc. They attribute the difference between the -18.3°C and the measured temperature of around 15°C, to an atmospheric greenhouse effect of around +33­­°C in total.

And they have violated the physics twice, firstly by discounting night time and modeling the Earth as being heated from all directions all of the time, which results an equivalent black body planetary temperature 113°C too warm. And secondly by neglecting the massive heat capacity of the oceans, which keep Earth’s surface so warm during the night.

According to their method, the Lunar global mean surface temperature, including 11% surface albedo, would be close to -3°C, but it is actually around -70°C.

The sunlit Lunar surface at any given time is much warmer than on Earth, but the global mean temperature of Earth is far higher, primarily due to the oceans which barely cool at the surface at night because convection sets in and sinking colder water is replaced by warmer water from below. The largest green house gas, water vapour, keeps Earth’s daytime maximum surface temperatures lower, as it absorbs considerable amounts of solar near infrared, it only keeps Earth’s night time surface warmer, like low clouds do.

The orthodox method, solar irradiance is spread over the whole spheroid, which is called the divide ‘by four method’:

394K x 0.25^0.25 = 278.6K (Kelvin) or 5.45°C

minus the 30% albedo from cloud and surface reflection:

278.6K x 0.7^0.25 = 254.833K or -18.3°C

The correct ‘divide by two’ method for the mean temperature of the actual heated hemisphere, applied to the Moon:

394K x 0.5^0.25 = 331.313K

minus 11% surface albedo:

331.313K x 0.89^0.25 = 321.8K

and averaged with a lunar dark side mean temperature of 90K, which is dependent on the heat capacity of the Lunar regolith:

(321.8 + 90) / 2 = 205.9K or -67.25°C.

———————————————

394K or around 121°C is the maximum temperature which most materials can reach at Earth’s distance from the Sun. Some metals with poor emission can get hotter. The Lunar surface is roughly in equilibrium with solar irradiance, so midday equatorial surface temperatures get close to that maximum. Doubling or halving it’s rotation rate won’t affect that, but it would affect the dawn and dusk terminator surface temperatures, in opposite directions.
If the Lunar regolith had less heat capacity, its dark side at any given time would be colder, but the sunlit side would be almost the same temperature.

The divide by two method for Earth, after 6% Rayleigh scattering losses by oxygen, 16% solar near infrared absorbed by water vapour, and 30% albedo reflections, and without including any longwave radiation from the atmosphere, the mean surface temperature for the sunlit side at any given time would be 285.67K, or 12.52°C. Which is just 4.5°C less than the global mean sea surface temperature. That does not leave much room for a radiative greenhouse effect.
PHONEY PHYSICS

According to the way climate scientists calculate Earth’s mean surface temperature, it is 5.45°C without clouds (and without surface reflections), and -18.3°C with clouds etc. They attribute the difference between the -18.3°C and the measured temperature of around 15°C, to an atmospheric greenhouse effect of around +33­­°C in total.

And they have violated the physics twice, firstly by discounting night time and modeling the Earth as being heated from all directions all of the time, which results an equivalent black body planetary temperature 113°C too warm. And secondly by neglecting the massive heat capacity of the oceans, which keep Earth’s surface so warm during the night.

According to their method, the Lunar global mean surface temperature, including 11% surface albedo, would be close to -3°C, but it is actually around -70°C.

The sunlit Lunar surface at any given time is much warmer than on Earth, but the global mean temperature of Earth is far higher, primarily due to the oceans which barely cool at the surface at night because convection sets in and sinking colder water is replaced by warmer water from below. The largest green house gas, water vapour, keeps Earth’s daytime maximum surface temperatures lower, as it absorbs considerable amounts of solar near infrared, it only keeps Earth’s night time surface warmer, like low clouds do.

The orthodox method, solar irradiance is spread over the whole spheroid, which is called the divide ‘by four method’:

394K x 0.25^0.25 = 278.6K (Kelvin) or 5.45°C

minus the 30% albedo from cloud and surface reflection:

278.6K x 0.7^0.25 = 254.833K or -18.3°C

The correct ‘divide by two’ method for the mean temperature of the actual heated hemisphere, applied to the Moon:

394K x 0.5^0.25 = 331.313K

minus 11% surface albedo:

331.313K x 0.89^0.25 = 321.8K

and averaged with a lunar dark side mean temperature of 90K, which is dependent on the heat capacity of the Lunar regolith:

(321.8 + 90) / 2 = 205.9K or -67.25°C.

———————————————

394K or around 121°C is the maximum temperature which most materials can reach at Earth’s distance from the Sun. Some metals with poor emission can get hotter. The Lunar surface is roughly in equilibrium with solar irradiance, so midday equatorial surface temperatures get close to that maximum. Doubling or halving it’s rotation rate won’t affect that, but it would affect the dawn and dusk terminator surface temperatures, in opposite directions.
If the Lunar regolith had less heat capacity, its dark side at any given time would be colder, but the sunlit side would be almost the same temperature.

The divide by two method for Earth, after 6% Rayleigh scattering losses by oxygen, 16% solar near infrared absorbed by water vapour, and 30% albedo reflections, and without including any longwave radiation from the atmosphere, or any evaporative surface cooling, the mean surface temperature for the sunlit side at any given time would be 285.67K, or 12.52°C. Which is just 4.5°C less than the global mean sea surface temperature. That does not leave much room for a radiative greenhouse effect.